greasespot
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What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:11 am

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15113036/

Ok here is a what if. What if the North Korean's test a Nuke and it works....


Does the fact that they may have more than one change the dynamics of the peninsula?

It is kind of a scary thought.

GS....
Sometimes all you can do is look them in the eye and ask " how much did your mom drink when she was pregnant with you?"
 
Pope
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:15 am

Quoting Greasespot (Thread starter):
What if the North Korean's test a Nuke and it works....

If I lived within range of their short range missles, I'd be worried.
Hypocrisy. It's the new black for liberals.
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:20 am

Quoting Greasespot (Thread starter):
Ok here is a what if. What if the North Korean's test a Nuke and it works....

Then there would be a f***ing huge explosion!

If they tried it inside of their own borders then this is up to them, we can ask them not to, but no doubt they would not listen. If they tested it outside of their borders then its more of an open invitation to war, and in that case any number of things could happen, but it would most likely be a military attack on them. By who, take your pick, they have many enemies just waiting to have a pop at them.

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checkraiser
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:24 am

Quoting Greasespot (Thread starter):
Does the fact that they may have more than one change the dynamics of the peninsula?

I don't think so. Even though this bunghole has nukes it's still not going to get him much. If he ever launches one (in an act of war) the DPRK would be nothing more than a smoldering hole in a few hours.

Quoting Pope (Reply 1):
If I lived within range of their short range missles, I'd be worried.

 checkmark 

I'm surprised Japan hasn't been pushing harder for Kim Jong's removal. If I was a Japanese or South Korean citizen I wouldn't be sleeping real well these days.
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bushpilot
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:25 am

Quoting Pope (Reply 1):
If I lived within range of their short range missles, I'd be worried.

Here in western Alaska, we are in range of the med-long range missles. It is not something I lose sleep over, but I would rather NK not have these weapons. Just a shame really we are in the wrong war, chasing shadows in Iraq when we could be going after another truely evil regime, instead we are not in a position to seriously strike them militarily. We as the US really need to put some pressure in China to slap some sense into the NKorean govmnt.
 
Newark777
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:27 am

Let's hope their nukes are as reliable as the Kias made down south.

Harry
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:28 am

There will be a lot of political grandstanding and hand-wringing on both sides, but nothing will really change. It has been generally accepted for over a year that the DPRK already has nuclear capability anyway.
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greasespot
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:29 am

Quoting Checkraiser (Reply 3):
Even though this bunghole has nukes it's still not going to get him much. If he ever launches one (in an act of war) the DPRK would be nothing more than a smoldering hole in a few hours.

I am sure that give a lot of consolation to the people living in Seoul....

I believe if he gets a working nuke the South Korean's will be talking a lot less talk and be opening up a lot more diplomatic channels....

GS
GS
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searpqx
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:32 am

Quoting Checkraiser (Reply 3):
I'm surprised Japan hasn't been pushing harder for Kim Jong's removal. If I was a Japanese or South Korean citizen I wouldn't be sleeping real well these days.

The Japanese have never been overly comfortable with the DPRK, but in the last year they've taken an increasingly hard line. I think a test would pretty much eliminate any chance for relations between the two countries. Japan will take whatever (economic and diplomatic) punitive measures they can, and probably swing their considerable economic muscle into play to force others in the area (China) to do the same.

South Korea on the other hand seems to be in a very conciliatory mood. Right now they are convinced that only positive engagement will be successful, and I don't know that even a nuke test would change that. It would certainly upset them, but I'm afraid it might push them more towards the appeasement path. Which, to be honest, I can understand to an extent - they, literally, will deal with any 'fallout' from military engagement. But appeasement has never worked with an aggressor, and DPRK has aptly demonstrated it won't work with them.
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:35 am

Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 4):
Here in western Alaska, we are in range of the med-long range missles.

Didn't we put in a missile defense system for precisely that threat. I know it hasn't been working on a consistent basis, but something is better than nothing.
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checkraiser
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:36 am

I wonder what it's going to take before a worldwide coalition comes in and lays the smack on him. It seems almost inevitable.

If Kim Jong Il is brought to his knees it would also set a really good example for Iran.
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MaverickM11
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:39 am

Quoting Greasespot (Reply 7):
I believe if he gets a working nuke the South Korean's will be talking a lot less talk and be opening up a lot more diplomatic channels....

The S. Korean sunshine policy has been a total failure so far, why change now?
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bushpilot
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:44 am

Quoting Pope (Reply 9):
Didn't we put in a missile defense system for precisely that threat. I know it hasn't been working on a consistent basis, but something is better than nothing.

Yeah, it has been tested successfully once, itself is a missle based system instead of lasers or something. But If I was Kimmy, why the hell would I nuke a bunch of forest and tundra when if I were to actually do the unthinkable and use a nuke there are much better targets closer. There are a few cities in the area, ANC specifically, but it is not something I lose sleep over like I said.

Quoting Checkraiser (Reply 10):
If Kim Jong Il is brought to his knees it would also set a really good example for Iran.

Yeah just like our campaign in Iraq was supposed to let the Iranians know we can whip thier asses.
 
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:50 am

Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 12):
Yeah just like our campaign in Iraq was supposed to let the Iranians know we can whip thier asses.

I would like to think a N. Korean campaign would be much different than Iraq. I believe there would be much more worldwide support for such an action - but I could be wrong. That's why I'm sniffing around this thread - looking for the 'foreign' perspective.
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bushpilot
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:00 am

Quoting Checkraiser (Reply 13):

Yeah, understandable, I certainly think it would be a different story. I am just thoroughly frustrated that we have troops tied up in the sandbox under the guise of WMDs, when there are people who also threaten us and our allies who actually have the weapons. If NK decides to test this weapon, we are not in a position to invade, sure we can launch some airstrikes etc. It would not be a realistic option for us to have any real numbers of troops on the ground. But really, the only thing we can hope for is that he is dumb enough to test it in downtown Pyongyang so all the peasants can see thier sacrafice for the great Kim Jong Il.
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MaverickM11
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting Checkraiser (Reply 13):
I believe there would be much more worldwide support for such an action -

That and I can't imagine there'd be much of an insurgent element among the North Korean people. Iraqis were relatively well off (and fed) compared to North Koreans and there was already a strong anti West element not only in Iraq but of course the whole region. North Korea seems to have none of that, and the region in general doesn't have anywhere near the animosity toward the West that the Middle East/Muslim world does.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:13 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):
That and I can't imagine there'd be much of an insurgent element among the North Korean people.

I agree with you to a point, I just want to remind folks that there was the same talk about how the Iraqis were going to see us as great liberators and welcome us with open arms. The North Korean people are generally starving. I have seen footage from CNN presents that show dead bodies of people who starved to death lying in the streets and people just walking over them because it is a normal occurance.
But we are not in a position to execute any serious offensive ground combat against them right now. A large population of our soldiers in Iraq are National guard already, we simply dont have the troops for it. I guess for me the bottom line is we can drop a bunch of bombs on them, I would hope unless they nuke another country that our bombs would be of the conventional sort.
 
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:22 am

Quoting Greasespot (Thread starter):
What if the North Korean's test a Nuke and it works....

I think we need to test a rocket/nuke on NK and see if IT works.
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MaverickM11
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:34 am

Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 16):
I just want to remind folks that there was the same talk about how the Iraqis were going to see us as great liberators and welcome us with open arms

I never really believed that we could actually depend on that; I figured the Iraqis would welcome us but the war would essentially shake the hornets nest in neighboring countries, and insurgents would pour across the now even more porous Iraqi borders.

Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 16):
But we are not in a position to execute any serious offensive ground combat against them right now.

I don't think we should, even if we did have the man power. It's time for S. Korea, China, and Japan to step up.
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:53 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 18):
I don't think we should, even if we did have the man power. It's time for S. Korea, China, and Japan to step up.

I agree %100, but China is more or less NKs only friend, they give them most of thier food, I think China needs to step up diplomatically, or we buy less trinkets from them. S.Korea is scared it seems, and Japan really only has a self defense force. It would ultimately fall onto the shoulders of the US.
 
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:19 am

If they launch a nuke test missle, it'll probably blow up soon after liftoff. Raw, heavy nuclear material will rain down on their own property. I don't think they'd like that.

Mark
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:41 am

It would about seal the fact that Japan would change their Constitution to allow themselves a more flexible response to this situation.

And it certainly would worry everyone, China included. It changes the dynamic dramatically. It probably means they have more than one, and it means that now this nut who runs the DRPK has the ability to do severe damage to the ROK, Eastern Russia and Japan.
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UAL747
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:01 am

How many nukes does S. Korea have just out of curiosity?

UAL
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:55 am

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 22):
How many nukes does S. Korea have just out of curiosity?

Since when does South Korea have nukes?

I don't know what to do if North Korea tests nuclear warheads, but I know what the "dear leader" uses to clean his teeth: "Korea Tabs"! Big grin Haha, isn't that a screamer?
Good night.
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MaverickM11
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:26 pm

Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 19):
It would ultimately fall onto the shoulders of the US.

Of course...but I'd like to see N Korea's neighbors squirm for a bit before it inevitably becomes something that the US is blamed for fixing/not fixing.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:38 pm

Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 4):
Just a shame really we are in the wrong war, chasing shadows in Iraq when we could be going after another truely evil regime, instead

You're only half right . . .

It's a shame the gawddamn politicians in Washington, Starting with Bush1 and accelerating under Clinton saw fit to draw down the US military to such a state that it CANNOT respond to a threat on two different fronts . . . can barely manage enough troops to respond to a threat on ONE front. . . .

It's not so much a matter of being in a wrong war my friend, as it is being of the wrong fuckin' mindset in DC . . . we ARE paying the price right now . . . our exhausted and depleted force structure tells the tale . . . every day.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 18):
It's time for S. Korea, China, and Japan to step up

Yup, it's time for the US to STOP being the police force to the world . . . although NK is a threat to the US, the South Koreans, Chinese, Japanese are all at terribly greater. Guess the Japanese Defense Forces will just have to become the Japanese Offense Forces . . .

The Chinese won't do shit. They might not like little Kim having his nuke, but - in reality, - they could mow over North Korean in a day . . . and Kim knows it. He's not going to piss in their Wheaties.

South Korea, will be lost in the shuffle. We - the US - has been the military for so long now, I'm not sure the bastards could function alone.
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:19 pm

In January 2004, I met face-to-face with Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) who sits on the Committee on International Relations. The subject of North Korea came up. Her response "If North Korea even gets a nuclear missle ten feet off the ground, they will cease to exist."





Please note this was nearly three years ago.
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checkraiser
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:19 pm

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 23):

Since when does South Korea have nukes?

Since the US put them there. Not sure when though.
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TedTAce
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:31 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 25):
Yup, it's time for the US to STOP being the police force to the world

At least for free, and certainly not as a 'break even' proposition. You want our troops, pay us. LARGE coin, and make sure there are extra benefits for such duties!!! It's one thing to put our troops in harms way for stupid things related to our OWN defense, it's entirely different in situations like this where the only motivating factor is protecting a country where we have little in the way of interests.
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centrair
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:24 pm

Quoting Checkraiser (Reply 27):
Since the US put them there. Not sure when though.

Actually this is the major issue. As part of the Armistice treaty there are to be NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS on the Korean Peninusla. There are No nukes in South Korea and if there were it would be a violation of the Armistice. The South Korean Government would not allow it. If the US put them there, the UN would have booted the US (The Armistice is a UN treated supported by the US). If the US put them there, that means they would have had to stop in Japan which is against US-Japanese agreements (No nuclear weapon or even navel vessel may enter a Japanese port). If they were in South Korea, and were used the fallout would land in South Korea and Japan depending on the wind.

I don't know where people get their info but they might think about understanding South-North Relations, East Asian Relations and the treaties concerning Nuclear weapons.

The reason why this is a worry is that North Korea could use them on Japan and the US. But hell they can't even get their long range missile to fly for more than 40 seconds before falling apart. Their midrange missle has had ONE successful flight. Security and intelligence reports have analyzed that the July test was a failure and not planned, as the DPRK stated, to self-destruct at that point.

Just a little bit about North Korea vs Iraq.

Iraq (pre-war):

  • Access to foreign media
  • Access to the internet and international phonelines,
  • diplomatic relations with many nations (not great relations, but open diplomatic ties),
  • Foreigners could come and go in larger numbers (Tourism)
  • Capitalism and free enterprise,
  • Plenty of food
  • Plenty of Medicine and trained practitioners. Many trained in foreign nations
  • Education for anyone who could achieve it (and didn't talk back of course),
  • Dictator who had been elected in an election and then over threw the government and killed his enemies. Mostly by firing squad.
  • Massive support for overthrowing the government
  • Nation made of multiple ethnic and religious groups that were being held at bay by fear of their leader. Once released from the grip were free to express their hostility to other groups


North Korea (now):

  • NO access to foreign media,
  • What the government says is truth anything anyone else says is a lie,
  • Only diplomatic relations with a few nations,
  • Foreigners are limited and restricted in their movement photography, length of time, and interaction with the people
  • Restricted trade (virtually no trade actually)
  • Highr education limited to the party elite and those in the favor of the "Dear Leader"
  • North Koreans are not allowed to travel outside of the country unless they are of the elite class
  • Every citizen has been trained and brainwashed into believing that the US is the enemy. There is no evidence otherwise to convince them.
  • Leader...the Dear leader...has ultimate control granted to him by his father Kim Il Song who is closer to god status than anyone (leader of the revolution and father to all North Korea born in a cabin in the sacred mountains)
  • If you speak out or act out against the North Korean government or the Dear Leader from the inside, you will be hung to a tree, have your skill stripped with a dull razor blade and left to die of exposure.
  • 100% Korean. 100% brainwashed. Would fight to the death as trained to kill any US troup or Japanese troup (the other enemy) that stepped into their country
  • One of the largest most mobile armies in the world
  • More landmines line the South-North boarder than anywhere in the world
  • Anti-Kim Jong Il movement however members are killed and tortured daily keeping it weak and membership very very low


If the US went into North Korea tomorrow, it would be the biggest blood bath in world history. If the US left it up to Japan and South Korea, they would be wiped out the map. The US is not the police of the world, but the US is responsible for the protection of Japan and to supplying support to the South Korean Army.

Japan wants to change the constitution to let the SDF become a standing army. South Korea and China are against this. Many older Japanese remember pre-WWII Japan and want Japan to be peaceful and diplomatic. the youth of Japan are oblivious and would vote to reform the constitution but less than 10% of all males over 18 would fight in a war. (disconnected from reality). If forced to, many would fall apart. Japanese men are weak (ask any Japanese girl...they prefer the Korean guy)

So what does that leave us if the DPRK does a Nuclear Test. Diplomacy. I hate the Bush Administration but their only good policy has been on North Korea.

People can bash Clinton for cutting the military. Did any of you know that in 1994 the Clinton admin sent an order to the Pacific fleet to prepare for a pre-emptive strike against a DPRK base suspected of working on nuclear tech?

Former pres Carter bolted over to the DPRK for emergency talks with Kim Il Song who agreed at that point to enter into the 5 nation talks. This averted something that could have become a mess. (Iraq would have looked like a skinned knee compared to what could have happend in 1994).

Bush II has been keeping in close contact with South Korea, China, Russia, and Japan to keep the talks open. The US negotiator is a career diplomat and is one of the most respected in the state department by both parties. US-China relations are not the best, but keeping that relation clear can only help push North Korea.

China doesn't actually like North Korea. They say that it is not a good model of socialism as Kim Jong Il doesn't live like his people or work for his people. (Mao said the same thing about Kim Il Song and also blamed Kim for the death of his only Son in the Korean war.)

Before people think that North Korea would just fall in a war, should really understand the amazingly complex situation that exists. This is not some game. This is a flash point for events that could lead to a war involving multiple nations (Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, The US, the UK), in multiple countries with massive physiological impact on all who fought and all at home. Not to mention more funerals than the world has seen since the US Civil War...still considered the bloodiest war ever to have been fought in human history.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:39 pm

[quote=Centrair,reply=29}[/quote]

Great info,and as usual, great post Centrair. . . always a pleasure to read your perspetive.

So, in that light,what will Japan, China, South kora do if in fact the DPRK fields a viable nucleanr missile? Where will they stand? Will Japan change it's constitution? Will China intervene with "enoughis enough"? Will there the an internal coup in North Korea?
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 4:01 pm

Quoting Checkraiser (Reply 3):
I'm surprised Japan hasn't been pushing harder for Kim Jong's removal. If I was a Japanese or South Korean citizen I wouldn't be sleeping real well these days.

Actually I read an article on this earlyer this morning and it was saying that Japan and China were calling imidiate gatherings for the UN in New York. Though they said the gathering would not do much as of now because North Korea is already strickend by santions and is already starving there is really nothing more you can do sanction wise to punish them. Thus leaving pretty much military action the only avenue to chaning North Korea.

Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 4):
instead we are not in a position to seriously strike them militarily. We as the US really need to put some pressure in China to slap some sense into the NKorean govmnt.

Sure we are not, but we do have forces that can still go over there with a coalition of Japan, China (not fond of North Korea useing nukes), South Korea, possibly Australia, possibly Russia, Britian of course, and many other countries supporting us in what would happen. Iran is deffinatly having a close eye on what is happening here to see what exactly would happen with this kind of threat.

Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 12):
Yeah just like our campaign in Iraq was supposed to let the Iranians know we can whip thier asses.

Actualy, the war in Iraq is over. Sadam is out and the people have their own government now. The people that we are fighting in there are foriegn fighters who want to fight the United States and the West. Jihadists and extreamists. They are fighters from all over Asia (Middle East) trying to kill Westerners. Thats all. So Iraq liberation is over, its the war on "terror" is moving into Iraq. Remember, "Operation Iraqi Freedom" was the war in Iraq, "War On Terror" is the over all war including Afghanistan.

All this that is happening will play a big role in the elections for 2008. This will deffinatly not be close to being over then and who will step up as the big dog? Bush has showed us he is a strong son of a gun not going to back out of anything and push for security. Will anyone else take that roll or just be a pansy and try to "talk" things out with no force? As you can tell I am a Republican but as far as I know, the best person for the job to take over President Bush is not a Republican so far in my opinion. Its a Democrate named Barak Obama. Just something to spit out haha  Wink
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VHVXB
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:21 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 25):
The Chinese won't do shit. They might not like little Kim having his nuke, but - in reality, - they could mow over North Korean in a day . . . and Kim knows it. He's not going to piss in their Wheaties.

They are more concerned about their economy and to see that nothing will stop it
 
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centrair
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RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:56 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 30):
So, in that light,what will Japan, China, South kora do if in fact the DPRK fields a viable nucleanr missile? Where will they stand? Will Japan change it's constitution? Will China intervene with "enoughis enough"? Will there the an internal coup in North Korea?

First thank you.

It is hard to tell what Japan will do.
With a huge percent of the population old enough to remember pre and post WWII, they may resist the new Prime Minister and his conservatives desire to change the constitution. But being that only 30% of the population actually gets out to vote and many of those are youth with heads up their A**, it would be possible. But it wouldn't be immediate. Just like the US a change to the Japanese constitution requires a vote by each prefecture. But if there is a viable nuke then the SDF has the ability to defend the nation. But will have to be backed by the US. There are enough Japanese angry with the DPRK for the kidnapping of Japanese nationals in the 1970s that the people might just support a more agressive stance. (Little history quirk: Current PM of Japan's grandfather was charged as a Class A war criminal in WWII for issuing inhumane actions in China ending in the death of many Chinese.)

If the DPRK were to fall, Japan would support South Korea monetarily but they would be strained and it could have an adverse effect on world economy.

South Korea will have to be involved. If let's say there was a huge uprising in the DPRK, the first across the boarder would have to be the South Koreans. American soldiers would be seen as the "Imperialists", "Rapists", "Baby Killers" and whatever the DPRK has called us. South Koreans would be seen as liberators. They would have to convince North Koreans that America is not an enemy. Only then would US troops be able to cross the boarder. Until then the US would have to sit in South Korea and Japan and support South Korea. US troops of Korean decent could go in but not in US uniform. Once a Korean...always a Korean. (See Aviation thread about DL expansion into Asia and KE moving into IAH and its ops at DFW)

China....they are hard to read in this situation.
China likes to have buffers between nations. Thus the autonomous regions like Inner Mongolia. North Korea is a buffer. But also a pain in the Chinese and especially Heilongjiang Province government. North Koreans cross the boarder and hide out in Harbin and other cities in the area. China sends some back but does turn their head to others. It is an economic drain on the region and an embarassment. (Children begging on the street).

China Senerio 1: North Korea Produces a Nuke missle.
China will say "enough is enough" but and agressively push for the DPRK to rethink what its doing. It will also most likely encourage the US to commence low-level direct talks as part of the 5 nation talks hopefully leading to high-level talks like the ones between Albright and Kim Jong Il in 1999. Those were a result of Carter's visit. Now...if Bush were to do this in his administration, he would be remembered for it the same way Nixon, in the face of adversity, is still remembered for helping to normalize relations with China.

China Senerio 2: Internal Coup of DPRK
This one is a little clearer. China will fortify the boarder to prevent the flood of North Koreans going to China the "Big Brother of Socialism". A flood of North Koreans acros the boarder would be a huge strain on the economy.
China will have a policy of containment and probably work with the South Koreans to stablize the nation.

Russia is another odd one in this play. They are "friends" of the DPRK but have never really been close. Infact Stalin thought Kim Il Song was a nut to try and unify. Stalin thought it wouldn't work but gave Kim support in the end. If the DPRK produces a Nuke, Russia will support China's position but will go no further. They have too many problems to deal with.

If the DPRK were to colapse, Russia will send a few advisors, some aid and maybe some ground support. Russia cannot afford to give much else. But the North Koreans would prefer Russian troops to American and Japanese troops. After all Russia is the "big socialist brother".

Downside of fall of DPRK
Major Economic problems for South Korea, China and Japan leading to a huge global economic problem.

Keep your eyes on the moves taken by the UN, China, France, South Korea, Japan and the US. Should be very interesting.

I for one will hoping for calm heads and good diplomacy while holding my 3 month old daughter and lovely wife. Only 3 hours by plane from Pyongyeong.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
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HAWK21M
Posts: 30050
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2001 10:05 pm

RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:49 pm

They would be aggressive politics worldwide to get them to dismantle their stock.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
TedTAce
Posts: 9098
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:31 am

RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Thu Oct 05, 2006 1:15 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 33):

Damn were the hell have you been? Great information, a nice breath of fresh air to non av discussions like these.
This space intentionally left blank
 
VHVXB
Posts: 5322
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 7:54 pm

RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Fri Oct 06, 2006 6:24 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 33):
China Senerio 1: North Korea Produces a Nuke missle.



Quoting Centrair (Reply 33):
China will say "enough is enough" but and agressively push for the DPRK to rethink what its doing.

Heres an article to support what you said. It goes on to explain that China will not support NKorea if they test their Nuclear weapons
http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/...-out/2006/10/05/1159641461820.html
 
ba747yyz
Posts: 371
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:55 pm

RE: What If North Korea Tests A Nuke And It Works.

Sun Oct 08, 2006 2:45 am

Quoting Greasespot (Thread starter):
Ok here is a what if. What if the North Korean's test a Nuke and it works....

Then North Korea becomes a nuclear waste field, with no living inhabitants.

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