Arrow
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:40 am

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
I personally hope the USD drops another 20-30% against the world currencies which would really be great for our economy.

Might be a disaster for the U.S. economy, as all those foreign bond holders unload their US dollar holdings, and precipitate a 50% decline in the value of the dollar. If you like a 20% drop. you'll love a 50% drop. You might also find that all that stuff that has been priced in US dollars for the last 50 years -- airplanes, oil, copper, etc. -- will suddenly be priced in Euros because OPEC can't afford to see the value of its piggy bank plummet.

Quoting JRadier (Reply 28):
The trade dificit of the US has been rising since 1991 and is currently (2006) at 758 billion dollars! So each year that amount goes outside of it's borders, increasing US debt.

The trade deficit is a red herring, despite what you hear from Lou Dobbs. In many ways its a good indicator of how strong the US economy is as as a result of consumer spending power. And it makes places like China very dependent on ensuring that its biggest customer stays healthy. It has nothing to do with debt -- that's all the money BushCo borrowed to finance his foolish war. That IS a problem, and it's one of the main reasons the US dollar has taken a beating.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
 
Dougloid
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:40 am

Beat me. Please.

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Dead horse
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
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gunsontheroof
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:50 am

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
Why does every one get so upset about a weak US Dollar.

Because some of us are spending many more weak U.S. dollars than they had planned to during their time in Europe this month.  Wink

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 51):
Why does every one get so upset about a weak US Dollar.

From the looks of it, that particular dead horse has already been beaten sufficiently. Let him be!
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
ba747yyz
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:02 am

Weak US dollar means cheaper vacations  Smile
 
sandrozrh
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting RichPhitzwell (Reply 3):
Why are so few of you guys on the other side of the pond not coming over for a visit?

Cuz your immigration policies suck. I hate feeling like a criminal each time i immigrate into the US, although frankly i havent done so since early 2006 and i'm not planning to do so in the near future Big grin
 
Dougloid
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:47 am

Quoting SandroZRH (Reply 54):
Cuz your immigration policies suck. I hate feeling like a criminal each time i immigrate into the US, although frankly i havent done so since early 2006 and i'm not planning to do so in the near future

What particularly makes you feel like a criminal about the process?
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
sandrozrh
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:49 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 55):

What particularly makes you feel like a criminal about the process?

Having my photo taken and saved by a random person, giving my fingerprints, just a lot of confidential stuff which is none of everybody's business.
 
baroque
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:49 am

This seems to have become topical again.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/...114b/2007/07/20/1184560041108.html
"FEDERAL Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has told a parliamentary committee that subprime mortgage losses could hit $US100 billion ($114 billion) and threaten consumer spending, but he sought to reassure the senators that the central bank was working quickly to strengthen lending regulations."

Presumably not likely to force the US dollar up any time soon.
 
Dougloid
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting SandroZRH (Reply 56):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 55):

What particularly makes you feel like a criminal about the process?

Having my photo taken and saved by a random person, giving my fingerprints, just a lot of confidential stuff which is none of everybody's business.

Have you done anything wrong, that you would feel bothered by all this? I certainly don't, and I'm a bit of a civil libertarian.

Do you have a picture of yourself in your passport or on your driver's license? Have you ever been fingerprinted? What's the difference? I mean, aside from the fact it's your government?

Fact of the matter is, you're worried about nothing. You should worry about more important things.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
flybyguy
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 6:37 am

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 24):
Anyone who has studied basic economics knows that the president has very loose control over the economy. He can introduce legislation that may effect long term factors, but the here and now? Very little control.

There are a multitude of more important factors that control the economy. None of them being the US president. So that's why I don't think you'll be able to answer my above question. Because you clearly don't have a basic understanding.

This is VERY true. I still don't understand why Clinton was praised for the economy in the 90s.

With regard to the weak dollar, I don't think this will have a profound influence on the nation's exports... especially since the global dynamic is to purchase from countries with traditionally cheaper labour and weaker currencies. A weak dollar would have to be significantly weak and long term IMHO to produce any benefits to the country, but that "benefit" might reek havoc through inflation and damage the domestic economy in favour of foreign trade.

As an aside... I was wondering how the Chinese manage their currency? Is inflation a burgeoning threat because of their undervalued currency? Or are price controls so tight that the currency is strong domestically... despite its low value, and even stronger when used to compete in foreign trade?
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 7:08 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 58):
Have you ever been fingerprinted? What's the difference?

While fingerprinting is a normal procedure for many administrative acts in the US, in Europe fingerprints are generally only taken if a person is under arrest and a crime suspect.

One thing though that would seriously p*ss me off is the interview during visa applications for the US. The one and only time I have been to the US was just after 9/11, when the new procedures (except passenger searches at airports with armed police officers / soldiers present, but we know this from Europe as well) were not yet installed, but I have heard horror stories from friends who went through the visa process recently and described it as being treated in a very rude manner.


Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
Arniepie
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:25 am

Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 59):
Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 24):
Anyone who has studied basic economics knows that the president has very loose control over the economy. He can introduce legislation that may effect long term factors, but the here and now? Very little control.

There are a multitude of more important factors that control the economy. None of them being the US president. So that's why I don't think you'll be able to answer my above question. Because you clearly don't have a basic understanding.



Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 59):
This is VERY true. I still don't understand why Clinton was praised for the economy in the 90s.

That is only partly true.
The presidency has not only a long term effect on the economy but also some more direct effects through its handling of the budget.
A continuous overspending on the budget (deficit) does have a lot of negative effects on the short and middle long run of the economy as a whole.
Also the way the US is perceived in the rest of the world is mainly through its president and I can tell you this, it is a long time ago , if at all, that the image of the US was so bad in the world and that definately does have a negative effect on the economy.
Granted, the trade deficit is somewhat over-hyped as a problem because the bulk of the US economy is not export orientated (like many EU or Asian countries are ) but focused largely (85-90% IIRC) on the internal market

As for Clinton in the 90's that is off course partly true.
The boom happening then was certainly not a direct result of his policy, it was a rather lucky coincidence of a new important upcoming economy (mainly IT/internet and telecomm) which proved very beneficial up until today (despite the internet bubble which resulted in a temporary relapse), and the new trends in credit management which fueled a lot of consumer spending and important growth but could turn out very ugly for a lot of people on the long-run.

Whatever you may say about the Clinton administration, on the economics side they did much better than their successors and a lot of earlier administrations.
They at least tried very seriously to manage the fields on which they had direct influence in a serious and responsible
manner by not overspending on the budget and trying to create a good investment climate for business as a whole and trying to provide some kind of safety net for the less well off which is important for long time stability.
[edit post]
 
Dougloid
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:46 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 60):
One thing though that would seriously p*ss me off is the interview during visa applications for the US. The one and only time I have been to the US was just after 9/11, when the new procedures (except passenger searches at airports with armed police officers / soldiers present, but we know this from Europe as well) were not yet installed, but I have heard horror stories from friends who went through the visa process recently and described it as being treated in a very rude manner.

So it's hearsay. Why don't you say what you personally have experienced in this field instead of some war story you and your mates traded over a few steins of Herr Braumeister's best lager?

What happened to your critical thinking faculties, Europe? I think we had this discussion last year, and I was astounded that all you folks' addresses and terms of your residency are registered with the local authorities who in all probability share it with the cops. Here in the states the only people who are obliged to keep the cops abreast of their whereabouts are sex offenders and parolees. I b'lieve I opined that if this was standard practice in Europe it's no wonder it was so easy to round up the Jews.

Yet you guys think this is perfectly normal and then go off on a rant about a picture and some fingerprints in another country.

Different strokes, huh?



 Wink  Wink  Wink
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
Arniepie
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:58 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 60):
but I have heard horror stories from friends who went through the visa process recently and described it as being treated in a very rude manner.

Maybe he got questioned by someone with an off-day or someone without social skills.
Even more likely he was questioned by a New-yorker where this sort of dialogues are just normal everyday conversations. Big grin

Point is that I got questioned by more than one customs(or related) officer in different countries and while one could be kind and polite , the others could be total asses that seemed to be stuck in a death-end career and therefor where always a bit nasty against basically anyone.
Reminds me of a really terrible customs lady in CDG back in 97 that made more than 50 people miss their connections.
[edit post]
 
JRadier
Posts: 3952
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 9:43 pm

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 62):
local authorities who in all probability share it with the cops.

talking about hearsay........
 
melpax
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 9:53 pm

Aussie Dollar at 18-year high
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070720/19/1blr6.html

It dosen't seem that long ago that the Aussie dollar was at around 50 cents to the US dollar........... I saw this on the news flying home last night, me and my work mate sitting in the next seat started making plans for a US trip!

I also read a newspaper article during the week that was predicting petrol here would drop to AUD$1 a litre by christmas due to the strong AUD. Mind you these are proably the same people who were predicitng that petrol was going to be AUD$2 a litre by last christmas!
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
cairo
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 9:55 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 14):
By comparison, Germany uses the strong and still rising Euro and still exports are booming and by far exceed the value of our imports

That is in large part because German "exports" are not exports at all; they are simply domestic transfers to other countries using the Euro. What Germany calls an export, the US calls a domestic transaction between people in two neighboring states.

Trade between two entities using the same currency is not international trade in the traditional sense; it is more like domestic trade (or, historically speaking, like trade within the British Empire) The vast majority of German "exports" are to other EU member nations, and this is vastly different from American trade which involves buying and selling of US dollars before it can be completed, not to mention the much greater distances and infrastructure required to facilitate US foreign trade.

Besides all that, if Germany has it right, why the much higher employment? Why the much lower (by 1/3rd) gross domestic product per capita (PPP method)? Why the slower growth? And, perhaps most telling of all, Why the public debt that as a percentage of GDP is higher than America's?*

Taken in totality, do you think many Americans would choose Germany's illusory export figures at the cost of slow growth, high unemployment, and greater national debt?

Cairo

*
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gm.html
 
oldeuropean
Posts: 1686
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:16 pm

Quoting Cairo (Reply 66):
Besides all that, if Germany has it right, why the much higher employment? Why the much lower (by 1/3rd) gross domestic product per capita (PPP method)? Why the slower growth? And, perhaps most telling of all, Why the public debt that as a percentage of GDP is higher than America's?*

Because we took over of a bankrupt former comunist country with 16.35 million people (19.86% of the todays population of Germany!) and have spent billions to develop it.

B.t.w. this and the entry of other underdevelopt former comunist countries in the EU is a fact that many of our "finance experts" here on A.net (also in other threads) often forget, when comparing the US and EU economy.  Yeah sure

Axel
Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
 
greasespot
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sun Jul 22, 2007 5:29 am

well 6 days and nary a peep from the thread starter....Is anyone really suprised?


GS
Sometimes all you can do is look them in the eye and ask " how much did your mom drink when she was pregnant with you?"
 
Dougloid
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sun Jul 22, 2007 7:33 am

Quoting JRadier (Reply 64):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 62):
local authorities who in all probability share it with the cops.

talking about hearsay........

We had that discussion last year. Are you going to tell me different? If so, say it here and say it now and say it with specifics puh-leeze..

Do you register your address with your municipal authorities and are you obliged to do so when you change your residence?
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
Klaus
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:20 am

Quoting Cairo (Reply 66):
That is in large part because German "exports" are not exports at all; they are simply domestic transfers to other countries using the Euro. What Germany calls an export, the US calls a domestic transaction between people in two neighboring states.

Nonsense.

Our european neighbours generally have a free choice to replace imports from Germany with ones from countries with cheaper currencies (such as the USA).

If a weak currency was such an export-booster, they would simply switch over. Being in the same currency zone has its advantages (price stability above all else), but it isn't a catch-all.

The Euro-Zone as a whole also has a positive trade balance, and that in an environment of progressively rising costs for energy imports.

I'd say we're doing quite well, thank you!

Quoting Cairo (Reply 66):
Taken in totality, do you think many Americans would choose Germany's illusory export figures at the cost of slow growth, high unemployment, and greater national debt?

Since those figures are very real (a lot of money flowing into the country and far less leaving it), your premise is already moot.

And the massive challenge of repairing the damages left behind by decades of pseudo-socialist decay in a large part of our country and through the EU in most of eastern Europe doesn't pay for itself (yet).

We're also already in the midst of a comprehensive reform of our healthcare and pensions system which the USA haven't even tackled yet - please check with the US Comptroller General for an update: Fiscal Wake-up Tour

You should also note that the german national debt is being tackled actively with the brakes showing good effect and a reversal in sight; The german national debt is also owed to our own population to a larger extent than in the USA due to our higher domestic savings rate.

We're investing a significant portion of our GDP into reform efforts which will strengthen our position even further down the road. Infrastructural ones as well as social and technological ones; Efficient technologies and renewable energy infrastructure are excellent motors for our exports, while the US government has wasted years in pretending such innovations were entirely irrelevant and unnecessary.

Sure, in the short term those reforms cost us lots and lots of money which isn't available for short-term consumption. But wasting the money now would only become more expensive later.

[Edited 2007-07-22 03:29:16]
 
JRadier
Posts: 3952
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:36 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sun Jul 22, 2007 3:02 pm

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 69):

We had that discussion last year. Are you going to tell me different? If so, say it here and say it now and say it with specifics puh-leeze..

Nice for you that you had that discussion last year, doesn't make it an argument tho. Your claim is still unsubstantiated. Asking me to prove otherwise while you haven't even proved your own point is just a reversal of roles.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 69):

Do you register your address with your municipal authorities and are you obliged to do so when you change your residence?

Yep! You're telling me the government in the US has no idea where their citizens live?
 
PerthGloryFan
Posts: 726
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sun Jul 22, 2007 6:47 pm

Quoting Melpax (Reply 65):
Aussie Dollar at 18-year high
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070720/19/1blr6.html

It dosen't seem that long ago that the Aussie dollar was at around 50 cents to the US dollar........... I saw this on the news flying home last night, me and my work mate sitting in the next seat started making plans for a US trip!

I also read a newspaper article during the week that was predicting petrol here would drop to AUD$1 a litre by christmas due to the strong AUD. Mind you these are proably the same people who were predicitng that petrol was going to be AUD$2 a litre by last christmas!

Don't remind me!! I'm on a contract this year that is paying me in US dollars.
Although it does means I've been able to re-stock my technical library for a reasonable cost.
And this exchange rate means I've been giving serious consideration to going back to Oshkosh in 2008 and visiting a number of stateside friends - although having to prove I have no evil intentions when I first arrive, fingerprints and all that is having me wonder if I can be bothered.

Must also admit though that I would have thought that all the free market jocks on this forum would be happy to see a low dollar. The current exchange rate is the market adjusting and providing the opportunity for US exports to be cheaper on the world market, and so reduce its trade deficit.

However, this theory has a couple of problems-
(1) A country's emotional attachment to the value of their currency (it's seen as putting a value on their country's worth) means a poor exchange is not perceived as being "right". Downunder we're now pretty much used to having our currency traded up and down - we just accept being a minor economy in the scheme of things.
(2) The greenback has long been an international medium of exchange (does the IMF still even issue SDRs - statutory drawing rights?) so its value impacts other trading economies. Non-US central banks would probably like to see a higher valued US dollar. But in the short term this would require the US Federal Reserve to raise domestic interest rates - and that's not likely to happen any time soon.

PGF
 
deskflier
Posts: 525
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Sun Jul 22, 2007 6:54 pm

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
Why does every one get so upset about a weak US Dollar.

Like many before me has pointed out, it's a question of economic fundamentals. And if You think GWB is a genius for running an economic policy that makes the USD fall, what about Reagan who caused the dollar to rise just by opening his mouth, even if it was just to yawn?

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 18):
Then we wont borrow foreign money, we will just crank up the printing presses and print more Benjamine and Jacksons at home!

That's what Germany did to pay the enormous war reparations after WW1. Result: Hyperinflation, social unrest, Nazi rule (which could just as likely have been communist rule), and WW2. USA has already plenty of groups that could, or would, start and use the social unrest caused by worthless money, from right-wing militias to the communist agitators working among illegal aliens from south of the Rio Grande. Presently these groups are quite marginal, but in a society where money is worthless, the public services nonexistent, and there is a sense of every man for himself, people can join extremist groups in a hurry. That's why the Nazis won in Germany in 1932 and Hamas in Palestine in 2006. I don't hope that You would want the US equivalents of the Nazis or Hamas to win majority in Congress, or produce the winning Presidential candidate.
How can anyone not fly, when we live at a time when we can fly?
 
CupraIbiza
Posts: 547
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:55 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Mon Jul 23, 2007 8:53 am

Quoting Melpax (Reply 65):
I also read a newspaper article during the week that was predicting petrol here would drop to AUD$1 a litre by christmas due to the strong AUD. Mind you these are proably the same people who were predicitng that petrol was going to be AUD$2 a litre by last christmas!

USD/AUD exchange rates usually follow commodity prices very very closely. Over the last few years a gap has emerged. This is starting to close. Get ready for 1 AUD to be worth 1 USD (or more). We could see petrol well below AUD 1 per litre. Kia Rios - AUD 9000, Flat screen plasma TVs AUD 400.
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:44 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:27 am

Quoting Deskflier (Reply 73):
That's what Germany did to pay the enormous war reparations after WW1. Result: Hyperinflation, social unrest, Nazi rule (which could just as likely have been communist rule), and WW2. USA has already plenty of groups that could, or would, start and use the social unrest caused by worthless money, from right-wing militias to the communist agitators working among illegal aliens from south of the Rio Grande. Presently these groups are quite marginal, but in a society where money is worthless, the public services nonexistent, and there is a sense of every man for himself, people can join extremist groups in a hurry. That's why the Nazis won in Germany in 1932 and Hamas in Palestine in 2006. I don't hope that You would want the US equivalents of the Nazis or Hamas to win majority in Congress, or produce the winning Presidential candidate.

I b'lieve you've got an overactive imagination there fella. Better lay off the Red Bull for a while. You're arguing that hyperinflation was used to pay off the Versailles reparations, but I'm quite sure that the fine print said "no tanking the currency to wiggle off the hook there, Weimar. What we want is gold." Now, in order to do that maybe Weimar had to go to hyperinflation to rob the German middle class of the value of their pensions but that is quite a different kettle of fish.

There is very little to compare between the US in the present day and Germany in the depression that supports your doomsday theory other than this unnatural fascination Europeans have with domestic minutia here in the US. The money's not worthless, we don't have hyperinflation, the inflation rate's rather modest (which suggests that monetary policy set by the central banks of Europe may be at the heart of the problem) unemployment's a lot lower than it is in Europe, and the fringe is just that-a fringe element.

We haven't had a beer hall putsch or anything like the SA or the Stalhelm or the commies tearing up the streets, and we don't blame everything on the Jews either.

Just like you've got a problem with a lower value dollar, we've got a problem with the lower valued yuan or renminbao or whatever China calls the currency these days. It's a problem all right, but a manageable one.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
Klaus
Posts: 21344
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Mon Jul 23, 2007 4:15 pm

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
You're arguing that hyperinflation was used to pay off the Versailles reparations, but I'm quite sure that the fine print said "no tanking the currency to wiggle off the hook there, Weimar. What we want is gold." Now, in order to do that maybe Weimar had to go to hyperinflation to rob the German middle class of the value of their pensions but that is quite a different kettle of fish.

The massive pressure exerted by the idiotic reparation demands gave Germany a healthy kick right down that road and beyond. The exact payment regulations are secondary since the net effect didn't really differ all that much either way.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
There is very little to compare between the US in the present day and Germany in the depression

Um... yeah. Nobody claimed the current US situation was comparable...

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
that supports your doomsday theory

The caveats run the other way around: Prevent hyper-inflation (which would predictably be the result if the national debt was paid off through the money printing press) and you won't have to deal with economical chaos and the resulting destruction, whichever exact form it might take in the USA.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
other than this unnatural fascination Europeans have with domestic minutia here in the US.

Oh, get off it!  Yeah sure

Your life is significantly affected by what's going on in Europe, so if you don't care to inform yourself about european events and developments it's your own choice, just an unfortunate one.

Conversely any european who failed to inform him- or herself about US matters would never understand a large part of the influences on their own situation over here.

The illusion of a splendid isolation has been an illusion for a long time already, and it's fading out even as such.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
The money's not worthless, we don't have hyperinflation, the inflation rate's rather modest (which suggests that monetary policy set by the central banks of Europe may be at the heart of the problem) unemployment's a lot lower than it is in Europe, and the fringe is just that-a fringe element.

The rapid decline of the Dollar is very much a homemade american problem; The Euro is kept stable and at very low inflation by the ECB, so there's just no helping it going up against the falling Dollar in the current environment.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
We haven't had a beer hall putsch or anything like the SA or the Stalhelm or the commies tearing up the streets, and we don't blame everything on the Jews either.

You've just had a complete failure of all democratic institutions (executive, legislative, judicative, the press, public discourse and the rule of law) plus a failure to maintain or establish productive relations with the outside world while jumping into a war which is now costing you dearly; Plus rampant prejudices against "the towelheads" in the population at large.

Fortunately the american democratic institutions will apparently survive the Bush era and probably bounce back, but I would really tread lightly here if I were you.

But yeah, it's not the jews, this time - I'll give you that!
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13916
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:25 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Mon Jul 23, 2007 4:38 pm

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 62):
So it's hearsay. Why don't you say what you personally have experienced in this field instead of some war story you and your mates traded over a few steins of Herr Braumeister's best lager?

As I explained, I wasn't in the US since October 2001. I'd like to go again, but I'm not sure if it is worth the hassle.
Friends of mine have been though, and told me their experiences, which might have been attributed to certain embassy officials having had a bad hair day.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 62):
I think we had this discussion last year, and I was astounded that all you folks' addresses and terms of your residency are registered with the local authorities who in all probability share it with the cops.

While most continental European countries have such laws in place, it doesn't mean that everybody agrees with them. These laws were first introduced by the radicals of the Welfare Commitee (Robespierre etc.) during the French revolution to keep track of dissenters and spread all over Europe by Napoleon. Later they were seen a usefull instrument by various governments (monarchist, dictatorial and democratic) to keep taps on the population. They are a fine example how hard it is to get rid of legislation once it is entrenched in the bureaucracy. The governments give as reasons to keep them that they are needed to combat crime, help in creating statistics for planning and make sure that everybody can vote. I have seen that they can be helpfull in disasters, if as a rescue team leader at a collapsed building you know approximately how many people to expect inside, though I don't like the law's impat on individual freedom. Most citizens simply can't be @arsed to do anything about them. Usual answers:
We always had them. Does it personally affect you? Only those who have something to hide are afraid of them.
Sounds familiar?
Due to this I really ask the citizens of those European countries, which don't have this system (especially the UK and Ireland) never to introduce it.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 62):
Here in the states the only people who are obliged to keep the cops abreast of their whereabouts are sex offenders and parolees

Having seen (and in one case used to find information about a convicted criminal boyfriend of my daughter) the search agencies on internet (which will not only provide you with an adress, but also criminal history and credit rating of a person), I think it is quite eays for the American government to get access to all current information of every American citizen.


Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:44 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:34 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 76):
The massive pressure exerted by the idiotic reparation demands gave Germany a healthy kick right down that road and beyond. The exact payment regulations are secondary since the net effect didn't really differ all that much either way.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
There is very little to compare between the US in the present day and Germany in the depression

Um... yeah. Nobody claimed the current US situation was comparable...

Deskflier from Sweden said as much, and I have excerpted it below for your reference.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 76):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
other than this unnatural fascination Europeans have with domestic minutia here in the US.

Oh, get off it!

Klaus, it's a fact. On anet are presented more addlepated and uninformed opinions about: "'what's wrong with American politics/culture/economy/currency/schools/government/customs and immigration/food/intelligence/monetary policy/soft drinks/movies/music/labor/competitiveness/skills/exports/imports".....well, you get the picture. You folks spend altogether too much time on this subject and it's unhealthy. You really need to get out more. Discover your own country instead of bitching about ours.

Quoting Deskflier (Reply 73):
That's what Germany did to pay the enormous war reparations after WW1. Result: Hyperinflation, social unrest, Nazi rule (which could just as likely have been communist rule), and WW2. USA has already plenty of groups that could, or would, start and use the social unrest caused by worthless money, from right-wing militias to the communist agitators working among illegal aliens from south of the Rio Grande. Presently these groups are quite marginal, but in a society where money is worthless, the public services nonexistent, and there is a sense of every man for himself, people can join extremist groups in a hurry. That's why the Nazis won in Germany in 1932 and Hamas in Palestine in 2006. I don't hope that You would want the US equivalents of the Nazis or Hamas to win majority in Congress, or produce the winning Presidential candidate.



Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 77):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 62):
So it's hearsay. Why don't you say what you personally have experienced in this field instead of some war story you and your mates traded over a few steins of Herr Braumeister's best lager?


As I explained, I wasn't in the US since October 2001. I'd like to go again, but I'm not sure if it is worth the hassle.
Friends of mine have been though, and told me their experiences, which might have been attributed to certain embassy officials having had a bad hair day.

It's still hearsay and is unreliable anecdotal information. When you personally have been wronged then I might pay attention. Untill then it's speculative. How does that work? Consider this: If I said "German food sucks and I know this because I know a guy who was in Germany and he ate there and he didn't like it" you'd probably be offended.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 77):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 62):
Here in the states the only people who are obliged to keep the cops abreast of their whereabouts are sex offenders and parolees

Having seen (and in one case used to find information about a convicted criminal boyfriend of my daughter) the search agencies on internet (which will not only provide you with an adress, but also criminal history and credit rating of a person), I think it is quite eays for the American government to get access to all current information of every American citizen.

You know and I know that there is a huge difference between having residency information available (phone book) and being affirmatively obliged to report said information to governmental authorities.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 76):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 75):
We haven't had a beer hall putsch or anything like the SA or the Stalhelm or the commies tearing up the streets, and we don't blame everything on the Jews either.

You've just had a complete failure of all democratic institutions (executive, legislative, judicative, the press, public discourse and the rule of law) plus a failure to maintain or establish productive relations with the outside world while jumping into a war which is now costing you dearly; Plus rampant prejudices against "the towelheads" in the population at large.

That's your opinion, not a statement of fact.

One can quite easily distinguish between misguided policies of a government that will be turned out of office in a year and some kind of societal meltdown. Reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated. Nobody's in the streets rioting and screaming "Auslander raus", we're all mostly getting paid, we've got less unemployment than y'all and I'd bet my last Hitler era tin pfennig that you've got just as many bigots in Germany per pound as we do, maybe more. So don't wave the bloody shirt of racism-you used the epithet, not me.

The administration sucks, I'll give you that, but there are small victories. For one, Bush had a colonoscopy last week which means that he spent at least a day or more in the crapper on a Colyte trip. Having ridden the silver stallion myself, I KNOW he had at least one truly abominable and nauseating day and I wish him more of the same.

http://www.colyte.com/




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If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13916
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:50 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 62):
Here in the states the only people who are obliged to keep the cops abreast of their whereabouts are sex offenders and parolees

Having seen (and in one case used to find information about a convicted criminal boyfriend of my daughter) the search agencies on internet (which will not only provide you with an adress, but also criminal history and credit rating of a person), I think it is quite eays for the American government to get access to all current information of every American citizen.

You know and I know that there is a huge difference between having residency information available (phone book) and being affirmatively obliged to report said information to governmental authorities.

Then take it as an example how hard it is to get rid of oppressive legislation once it has been introduced. The executive will always find new reasons why the rules should stay and if it is only "We have done it for the last 200 years and does it affect you personally? If you don't have anything to hide, then you don't have to be afraid."
This is exactly why people over here (at least in Germany) are so sensitive to propsals by our Minister of the interior, Dr. Schaeuble, to permit e.g. the use of the military in support of the police inlands, do secret remote searches of computer hard drives, permit precautionary wire tapping of telephones, have the intenet and telephone providers store all connection data (telephone numbers, URLs, email adresses) for 6 months, use the digital autobahn toll camera system for checking on movement of cars (it can read the number plates of the vehicles) and to introduce automatic cameras in public places, which are connected to computers fed with biometrical data of the whole population.
He says that it is all necessary to fight terrorism, organised crime and child porn, the usual buzz words.
Again, I advise countries like the UK NOT to introduce these laws.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
JRadier
Posts: 3952
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:36 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:55 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
You really need to get out more. Discover your own country instead of bitching about ours.

And who start those threads? Mostly Americans claiming it's so great.... (including this one...)
 
Klaus
Posts: 21344
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:49 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
Deskflier from Sweden said as much, and I have excerpted it below for your reference.

No, he did not. You clearly misinterpreted that. He was warning against what might befall the USA in case a carelessly created hyper-inflation became reality.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
Klaus, it's a fact. On anet are presented more addlepated and uninformed opinions about: "'what's wrong with American politics/culture/economy/currency/schools/government/customs and immigration/food/intelligence/monetary policy/soft drinks/movies/music/labor/competitiveness/skills/exports/imports".....well, you get the picture. You folks spend altogether too much time on this subject and it's unhealthy. You really need to get out more. Discover your own country instead of bitching about ours.

You're strangely peeved by any outside interest in american affairs, that's the only "fact".

Other than that it is not just healty, it is absolutely necessary to take a keen interest in foreign affairs at large and in american ones in particular for practically everybody on the planet. It might be a different matter if the USA didn't affect almost everybody's lives abroad as well, but that's simply as it is.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
That's your opinion, not a statement of fact.

Sure. But I'm far from alone in that assessment.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
Reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated.

Your demise was not discussed. The damage you're doing to others is the main problem. And that is even and especially true in view of the iraqi quagmire.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
Nobody's in the streets rioting and screaming "Auslander raus", we're all mostly getting paid, we've got less unemployment than y'all and I'd bet my last Hitler era tin pfennig that you've got just as many bigots in Germany per pound as we do, maybe more.

There is hardly any "rioting" against foreigners over here - and the current immigration debate in the US is not generally a model of enlightenment either.

Unemployment is measured quite differently here - we also have nearly no uninsured and not nearly the same number of "working poor".

And bigotry requires denial and/or ignorance of reality. And we're still worlds apart in that. I'd have no trouble taking that bet.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
So don't wave the bloody shirt of racism-you used the epithet, not me.

The blatant disinterest in, resulting ignorance of and widespread disdain for people who have a different outlook on the world than the one americans are used to can come to similar results - the main difference being that the massive damage caused by it is taking place outside of the USA, not at home or next door as in Germany back then.

The victims are just as dead or damaged either way, they're just out of sight as soon as you switch off the TV.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
The administration sucks, I'll give you that, but there are small victories. For one, Bush had a colonoscopy last week which means that he spent at least a day or more in the crapper on a Colyte trip. Having ridden the silver stallion myself, I KNOW he had at least one truly abominable and nauseating day and I wish him more of the same.

Bush is not much more than a spoiled brat who's found himself way in over his head; My personally favourite image would rather be Dick Cheney being restrained by the secret service while the man-sized safe in his office is being raided by investigators...!  mischievous 
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:44 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:55 am

Quoting JRadier (Reply 80):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
You really need to get out more. Discover your own country instead of bitching about ours.

And who start those threads? Mostly Americans claiming it's so great.... (including this one...)

Actually, you're wrong generally, and wrong specifically about this thread.

It was an ill informed attempt to start a discussion about monetary policy and the weak dollar, which everyone in Europe has an opinion about, which seems to support my premise that youse guys ought to get out more..

Here's what the O/P said. As far as the political aspects of it and what followed I am not overly impressed with the original poster's analysis.

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
Why does every one get so upset about a weak US Dollar. The weak USD is actually better for our economy than a strong one because it makes our good cheaper overseas, which leads to more exports of domestic goods and more US jobs! The weak US Dollar makes the US more attractive as a destination to foreign visitors, which means more $$$ comming into the USA. I personally hope the USD drops another 20-30% against the world currencies which would really be great for our economy.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
JRadier
Posts: 3952
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:36 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 4:03 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 82):
Actually, you're wrong generally, and wrong specifically about this thread.

Well, I think the same thing about you. Can we leave it at that?

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 82):
It was an ill informed attempt to start a discussion about monetary policy and the weak dollar

You got it pretty right there.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 82):
which everyone in Europe has an opinion about,

Don't worry, we don't represent the whole of Europe. One of my coworkers doesn't give a rats ass.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 82):
which seems to support my premise that youse guys ought to get out more..

So keeping track of the news, and having an informed opinion warrants us having to get out more.... I get out more then enough, thank you!

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 82):
Here's what the O/P said. As far as the political aspects of it and what followed I am not overly impressed with the original poster's analysis.

Finally something we can agree on.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21344
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 4:09 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 82):
It was an ill informed attempt to start a discussion about monetary policy and the weak dollar, which everyone in Europe has an opinion about, which seems to support my premise that youse guys ought to get out more..

Everybody in Europe who drives a car, heats his home or consumes products involving petrochemical materials or fossil-fuelled transport is immediately affected by the Dollar rate. The appreciating Euro buffers the effects to an extent, but it would be outright stupid to not be interested in the problems of the US economy and the impact they have on us.

There is not that much reason to be embarrassed for your dirty laundry - ours doesn't smell that much better. We just live next to each other and that makes it a necessity that we have an idea of what's going on next door. There is just no alternative, and you're absolutely invited to reciprocate.
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:44 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 81):
No, he did not. You clearly misinterpreted that. He was warning against what might befall the USA in case a carelessly created hyper-inflation became reality.

Deskflier can speak for himself Klaus. He's trying to draw an inartful comparison between Nazi Germany, Hamas in Palestine and the US. I don't buy it, it's a facile comparison and you shouldn't buy it either, unless you are party to concrete information that the rest of us have not seen.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 81):
You're strangely peeved by any outside interest in american affairs, that's the only "fact".

Other than that it is not just healty, it is absolutely necessary to take a keen interest in foreign affairs at large and in american ones in particular for practically everybody on the planet. It might be a different matter if the USA didn't affect almost everybody's lives abroad as well, but that's simply as it is.

To what end? At the end of the day, all any of you guys can say is Jeez, your president's a dangerous dope, gotta do something there. We're working on it, and if you were as informed as you say you would surely know that.

Beyond that, what y'all do in Germany has as much to do with the fate of the world as what the rest of us do. It affects everyone else's lives. You export more than we do. But I cannot for the life of me find anyone except your countrymen who takes more than a passing interest in matters of German culture, monetary policy, cuisine or the lack thereof, politics, legislation, or anything else. Quite simply it's your business, not ours. We'd like a little reciprocity.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 81):
nd bigotry requires denial and/or ignorance of reality. And we're still worlds apart in that. I'd have no trouble taking that bet.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 78):
So don't wave the bloody shirt of racism-you used the epithet, not me.

You're the one that started with a racial epithet, Klaus. That speaks volumes and it's hardly ever inadvertent or meant for illustrative purposes. I won't even try to argue with you about that.

Hewre's a little light reading.

http://www.africaresource.com/content/view/291/202/
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:10 am

Guys, one other thing.

Please beat this.

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If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
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RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 12:45 pm

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 74):
USD/AUD exchange rates usually follow commodity prices very very closely. Over the last few years a gap has emerged. This is starting to close. Get ready for 1 AUD to be worth 1 USD (or more). We could see petrol well below AUD 1 per litre. Kia Rios - AUD 9000, Flat screen plasma TVs AUD 400.

I would not get too excited, the SMH opined that only about on third of the currency changes shows up in domestic prices. So you might have to wait for $A=2$US for your A400 plasma screen! Not even the sainted Gough could achieve that.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 84):
Everybody in Europe who drives a car, heats his home or consumes products involving petrochemical materials or fossil-fuelled transport is immediately affected by the Dollar rate. The appreciating Euro buffers the effects to an extent, but it would be outright stupid to not be interested in the problems of the US economy and the impact they have on us.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_dollar
"Adopted by the Congress of the Confederation of the United States on July 6, 1785[3], the U.S. dollar is the currency most used in international transactions.[4] Several countries use the U.S. dollar as their official currency, and many others allow it to be used in a de facto capacity. In 1995, over US $380 billion were in circulation, two-thirds of which was outside the United States. By 2005, that figure had doubled to nearly $760 billion, with an estimated half to two-thirds being held overseas,[5] representing an annual growth rate of about 7.6%. However, as of December 2006, the dollar was surpassed by the euro in terms of combined value of cash in circulation. The value of euro notes in circulation had risen to more than €610 billion, equivalent to US$802 billion at the exchange rates at the time.[6]"

From that is seems the rest of the world has about twice the right to comment on the US$ as Americans do, we own twice as many of the things.
It is a pity Wiki does not volunteer how many Euros are held overseas.

Aside from that, while a collapsing sub-prime market will affect the US worse than the rest of the world, it is affecting us already, witness the collapse of an NZ company last week.

US a.netters seem divided into two groups, a larger group that seems to have no trouble in amicable and illuminating discussions with (almost) all and sundry, and another group.
 
CupraIbiza
Posts: 547
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:55 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 1:41 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 87):
Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 74):
USD/AUD exchange rates usually follow commodity prices very very closely. Over the last few years a gap has emerged. This is starting to close. Get ready for 1 AUD to be worth 1 USD (or more). We could see petrol well below AUD 1 per litre. Kia Rios - AUD 9000, Flat screen plasma TVs AUD 400.


I would not get too excited, the SMH opined that only about on third of the currency changes shows up in domestic prices. So you might have to wait for $A=2$US for your A400 plasma screen! Not even the sainted Gough could achieve that.

You know I read that article in SMH not longer after I posted and instantly thought "I wonder if anyone will pick me up on that"

Quoting Baroque (Reply 87):
US a.netters seem divided into two groups, a larger group that seems to have no trouble in amicable and illuminating discussions with (almost) all and sundry, and another group.

I suggest the "other group" you mention subscribe to the Daily Reckoning - here is an excerpt

Of course, a sudden rush out of the greenback has been a danger for years. Since it hasn't happened yet, speculators believe it will never happen. Still, some are starting to wonder...

"Traders ask how low dollar can go," is the headline of an article on the subject in today's Financial Times. Already at US$1.38 against the euro...the paper cites a guess that it will go to US$1.40 soon. We remember, we predicted that it would go to US$1.50. Unfortunately, we made that prediction at least two years too early.

"At some point, the fall in the dollar will translate into foreign investors no longer buying US assets and selling their existing holdings," said an expert who was willing to talk to the FT.

The United States has a huge annual current account deficit. Foreign investors cover it each year - buying US treasuries and other American assets. Spectators - we among them - have been amazed at how much money they were willing to put into dollars. But there's a limit to everything...and it's not hard to imagine a change in attitude.

One thing is connected to another, of course. The whole Crack-Up Boom owes its existence to the willingness of complete strangers to finance America's spending habits. Now, the crack-up in subprime lending is reminding them that every asset with a dollar sign on it is not necessarily as child-safe or foolproof as it looks. And pity the poor speculator who borrowed yen, traded for dollars, and bought into Bear Stearns' Leveraged Credit CDO fund. He's been wiped several times over.
Not only has his hedge fund account gone to zero...the yen has gone up too, giving him additional losses.

All over the Bubble Planet, people have made bets based on delicate guesses...about currencies...the Dow...interest rates...and credit quality. All it takes is one thing to go haywire...and pretty soon they're all going haywire.

Whether this week they go further haywire or not...we'll just have to wait to find out.
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 4:18 pm

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 88):
I would not get too excited, the SMH opined that only about on third of the currency changes shows up in domestic prices. So you might have to wait for $A=2$US for your A400 plasma screen! Not even the sainted Gough could achieve that.

You know I read that article in SMH not longer after I posted and instantly thought "I wonder if anyone will pick me up on that"

Sorry about that Cupral, I have to admit my jaw fell a bit on reading it although I always had my suspicions about the nice theories of flow through of first tariff reductions and more recently of exchange rates.

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 88):
All over the Bubble Planet, people have made bets based on delicate guesses...about currencies...the Dow...interest rates...and credit quality. All it takes is one thing to go haywire...and pretty soon they're all going haywire.

Whether this week they go further haywire or not...we'll just have to wait to find out.

Nice example about the Bear Stearns' Leveraged Credit CDO fund - had not heard of that one. Extra nice twist if you were "in yen"!

Someone on the ABC went through a list of the bubbles that are currently up in the air. The odds are that the breaking of some will burst a few of the others - oh the benefits of globalization.

Still, we might get some benefits of greater robustness in the recovery stage!
 
melpax
Posts: 1939
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 7:13 pm

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 74):
Flat screen plasma TVs AUD 400.

Time to buy shares in electrical retailers such as JB Hi-Fi, in fact almost any retailer...... those plasmas will be racing out the doors at those prices, not to mention any electronic items.

Also, as I said previously, can anyone say dirt-cheap US holidays????????
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:44 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 10:34 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 87):
rom that is seems the rest of the world has about twice the right to comment on the US$ as Americans do, we own twice as many of the things.

To respond to the point you made about there being 2 kinds of Americans here on this board, the ones who are more or less cool and the redneck fascists if I may be so bold as to generalize.

There's a third type and that's me. We're educated, well informed, literate, knowledgeable about world affairs, and do not need any correcting.

There's a difference between constructive criticism and what's going on here in the main. A lot of what I hear around this place is the infernal and eternal bitching and piling on. Present company excepted of course.

There's a difference, you know. Pissing and moaning about the US is the cheapest form of currency. And that's about all I hear.

Have any of you written a congressman or the embassy to let them know how you feel? Started a blog? Publish a newsletter? Speak in Hyde Park? Study politics? Talked to anyone in YOUR government to make them aware of your concerns?

I would venture to say the answer is zero-zip-nada and bupkis.

Uninformed is....well, uninformed. Opinions, as my old crew chief used to say, are like assholes. We all have them, and they all smell bad.

As Klaus points out the health of the dollar is of immediate interest to anyone who heats their home. As I see it, every klick the dollar declines that's a discount that the Euro zone energy consumer or purchaser of dollar zone goods gets the benefit of. If I was in Europe I'd be telling that bad boy to go waaaaaaaaaay down so I can take a vacation abd fill up the Citroen with high test. But I'm not.

It is an ill wind that blows nobody a power of good. Count your blessings while you still have them. The cure may be worse than the disease.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
JRadier
Posts: 3952
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:36 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:18 pm

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 91):
and do not need any correcting.

Which is, ultimately, bullshit. As your post was nothing more then a flame, please allow me to return the favor.

You have constantly been attacking US instead of our comments. (see my reply 83 for instance), you have been claiming things as facts, but when I asked you to back that up with proof you never did. So yeah, I do think you need correcting. You keep claiming we keep bitching about your country, but in my point of view we have been discussing the dollar and what effects it. Yes, things the US has done has caused the current position of the dollar so it's in the interest of the discussion to drag those things in. If you feel our countries have had a negative effect on the dollar, please share it and back up your comments.

All in all, and I'm going to use your words from reply 79 here, I suggest that instead of bitching about us you take one hard look at your own country and get some constructive criticism here. Otherwise I suggest you keep the hell out and get out more!
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:25 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 91):
There's a difference, you know. Pissing and moaning about the US is the cheapest form of currency. And that's about all I hear.

P&M may be present in some posts, but some of those are probably intended as humour - always a tricky exercise. But I think overall, you seem to be showing tin ears at the nature of the balance of posts.

I could list em, but most of the non US posters and many of the US posters too are well aware of the fact that the world is dependent on the US dollar. It matters little whether we like it or not. I would have to admit to being brought up in an environment where the US dollar was worse than a bloody nuisance, it determined the whole way Britain did anything.

There was a splendid thread a while ago, ?in tech ops where GDB gave a history of the UK aircraft industry and what it might have been, and IIRC he gave a good indication of how many decisions were made in relation to hard currency. Which is why Vickers had every right to be miffed at BOAC buying the 707 after they had dictated the basic parameters of the VC 10 so that it was not easy to sell around the world.

In those days, the UK could not move without taking dollars (or gold) into account.

Those days are gone. But we do understand very, very well that if the US$ sneezes a heck of a lot of the world suffers pneumonia or worse. And just for the record, Australia suffered worse unemployment during the depression than either the US or the UK, not sure about Germany and France.

And just for the record, the dreaded Arabs keep an extra careful watch on their trade weighted index, so don't expect to achieve lower real costs for oil by devaluing the US$, they will up the price to compensate and then a little bit more. Which is exactly what I would do if I were them.

What really annoys the outside world is when you get a system associated with the sub-prime mortgage market that starts to smell a bit like a pyramid scheme, crossed with Enron and stuffed with Ponzis. And it is very difficult to be smart and stay away because the tendrils get inserted into the most conservative of financial systems. You really need a bit better regulation, not necessarily more, just better. How is that for a constructive suggestion?
 
Emirates773ER
Posts: 1320
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:10 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:59 am

Any American who thinks that his country is making progress needs to read the article below.


After over five years of relentless decline, the world's reserve currency appears now set to break the last important price support of 80 cents. This level has proven several times in the past to provide well-needed support whenever the dollar has reached that line. Since the 1980s, the dollar has hit 80 cents six times and then strongly bounced from that level. However, technical evidence now indicates that the greenback is likely to penetrate this line in the sand for the first time over the next few weeks.

The U.S. dollar has fallen victim to increasing capital spending for over a decade, which has created the largest U.S. trade deficit in history. Policy makers since mid-1990 have remained steadfast in their fiscal approach, and taxation revenue has been flat and declining. This combination has caused the dollar to plunge (Chart 1) from over $1.20 in 2000 to its current 80 cents, a loss of over 33%.

Technically, the dollar appears very vulnerable at its present price. The lower portion of Chart 1 illustrates the long-term trading cycle of the dollar. This repeating pattern is currently rolling over which indicates a greater probability of lower numbers in the second half of 2007. In Chart 2, the shorter-term daily view of the currency confirms the longer weekly chart. The average 14-week trading cycle (lower portion of Chart 2) has peaked in July and will decline throughout August and September. This means weakness for the dollar is expected to remain prevalent in the third quarter.

Though the massive trade deficit alone will keep continued downward pressure on the currency, the greenback now faces another enemy, which is competitive interest yields. Many central banks around the world are now gradually raising their rates to help control inflation in their countries. This escalation makes other major currencies more attractive compared against the U.S. dollar. The Fed, however, is not prepared to increase rates presently for fear of stalling the economy. This action may be the final straw that pushes the world's reserve currency to new depths.

Another perspective of analysing the American greenback is by reviewing other currencies. As the U.S. dollar often trades in the opposite direction to world currencies, examining strengths or weaknesses can help forecast the future direction of the dollar. Chart 3 of the Canadian dollar points to renewed upward pressure starting in late July with a target of 97 cents. This would add to the evidence of lower values for the USD in the coming weeks.

Intermarket Perspective: Should the U.S. dollar break through the final support level of 80 cents, this market action will affect the prices of commodities by increasing their value. Oil, industrial metals and particularly gold will have upward pressure on pricing as the American currency declines.

Most major currencies should also amplify against the dollar. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Pound, Australian and Canadian dollar can be expected to continue their current rising trend.


http://www.stockhouse.ca/shfn/editorial.asp?edtID=19993
The Truth is Out There ---- Face It!!!!!
 
Arrow
Posts: 2325
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2002 7:44 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Wed Jul 25, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 93):
And just for the record, the dreaded Arabs keep an extra careful watch on their trade weighted index, so don't expect to achieve lower real costs for oil by devaluing the US$, they will up the price to compensate and then a little bit more. Which is exactly what I would do if I were them.

Or would they eventually move to price their product in a higher valuer, more stable currency like the euro? I've often wondered how long the US$ will maintain its status as the world's favourite currency if OPEC made a move like that. And I wonder how far away we are from an Asian currency being the dominant global coin.

Too many people (and not just Americans) think things can never change, and that the world order can't be turned upside down. Surely the last 5 years, and China's ascendancy as the world's manufacturing giant, have put the lie to that concept.

Cdn$ topped US96 cents today -- on its way to parity in some people's opinion. Scheduled my Hawaii vacation for August, and just bought a new computer. And there are almost NO American tourists here this year -- bad for the economy in the short term, but I don't have to fight for a campsite.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
 
OU812
Posts: 563
Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2006 2:19 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Wed Jul 25, 2007 2:10 am

The Feds are concerned regarding inflation. But currently, it's under control.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...601087&sid=aTqxRIwGA1fw&refer=home

Growth Accelerated on Factory Rebound: U.S. Economy Preview
July 22 (Bloomberg)

The economy ''is getting a big boost from strong overseas demand, a lower dollar and relatively lean inventories,'' said Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ''Some of this momentum will carry forward into the third quarter, but the drag from housing will continue.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...601087&sid=ajoaH2NckNKQ&refer=home


Dollar Bear Market Slide More Boon Than Bane for Bush (Update1)
July 23 (Bloomberg)

Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar Inc., the world's biggest maker of earth-moving equipment, said last week the dollar's drop added $198 million to its sales in the second quarter.

Coca-Cola Co., the world's biggest soft-drink maker, said the weaker dollar increased its operating income by about $60 million last quarter. About 70 percent of Atlanta-based Coca- Cola's revenue is from outside the U.S.
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:44 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Wed Jul 25, 2007 2:34 am

Quoting JRadier (Reply 92):
You have constantly been attacking US instead of our comments. (see my reply 83 for instance), you have been claiming things as facts, but when I asked you to back that up with proof you never did. So yeah, I do think you need correcting. You keep claiming we keep bitching about your country, but in my point of view we have been discussing the dollar and what effects it. Yes, things the US has done has caused the current position of the dollar so it's in the interest of the discussion to drag those things in. If you feel our countries have had a negative effect on the dollar, please share it and back up your comments.

All in all, and I'm going to use your words from reply 79 here, I suggest that instead of bitching about us you take one hard look at your own country and get some constructive criticism here. Otherwise I suggest you keep the hell out and get out more!

You guys haven't been discussing the dollar, it's the same old pissing and moaning.

All of you had the opportunity to present your questions about this matter on youtube to a panel, among which happens to be the next president of the US. I'm referring to the democratic party presidential debate. It was open to everyone.

What did you ask them? Or were you otherwise occupied? Let me see the text of the letter you wrote to Mrs. Clinton. Because she's going to win, you know.

I really have to conclude that none of you have made your voices heard where it matters, and thus this is nothing but another a.net bitchfest.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 93):
What really annoys the outside world is when you get a system associated with the sub-prime mortgage market that starts to smell a bit like a pyramid scheme, crossed with Enron and stuffed with Ponzis. And it is very difficult to be smart and stay away because the tendrils get inserted into the most conservative of financial systems. You really need a bit better regulation, not necessarily more, just better. How is that for a constructive suggestion?

Now that shows that you're a cut above. You're to be commended for it.

However, I must inform you that I am not in a position to influence governmental policy here or anywhere else. I am also not a beneficiary of sub prime mortgage largesse as I am a mere tenant and I'll be paying off the loans for my education until I have been dead for at least thirty years. And as it happens I agree with you about said regulation.

And in the field of the sub prime mortgage and housing bubble in the US, I am quite sure that it is like finding out that you have the shingles-it will get worse-much worse- before it gets better. There is a major correction in the offing, and if you PM me I can tell you exactly how I think it is going to happen.

I am but a private individual of no great book larnin'.

But even I know that the first thing a fella should do when he has a gripe about something is to make it known to people that matter. And if they don't listen, why, broadcast it from the rooftops. Although you are not in the states, have you mentioned to your local legislative body that you're concerned that a collapse in sub prime mortgage lending in the US could trigger a worldwide depression and harm you personally?

Mere talk in a chowder and debating society like this one is not going to accomplish a single thing-in the great scheme of things it is background noise and Brownian motion.

And because of that, I fear, what goes on here comes under the general heading of what Mick Jagger meant when he said "We all need somebody we can pee on".
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
JRadier
Posts: 3952
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:36 pm

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:28 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 97):

All of you had the opportunity to present your questions about this matter on youtube to a panel, among which happens to be the next president of the US. I'm referring to the democratic party presidential debate. It was open to everyone.

I'm not really in the habit of visiting YouTube too often, so I missed out on this one. But instead of bitching about us bitching, would you be so kind to let us know next time? Cheers Big grin

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 97):
Mrs. Clinton. Because she's going to win, you know.

I haven't wrote a letter to Mrs. Clinton (nor any other candidate), as they do not represent me. You, on the other hand, seem to be represented by them, so I recon you did write a letter, would you mind sharing it with us? Although from my limited knowledge on US presidential candidates (I have not read up on the latest with them) I currently agree with mrs Clinton most, I wouldn't want to burn my ass on such a statement. A lot can happen between now and the elections so I would say your statement is uncalled for and highly questionable.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 97):

I really have to conclude that none of you have made your voices heard where it matters

Nor did I see this from you.... you seem to busy bitching about us.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 97):
and thus this is nothing but another a.net bitchfest.

so because we are discussing something, and you conclude out of the blue that we don't try to influence it we are bitching..... Your reasoning is way off!

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 97):
However, I must inform you that I am not in a position to influence governmental policy here or anywhere else.

How come, you could always, and I quote, do the following:

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 91):

Have any of you written a congressman or the embassy to let them know how you feel? Started a blog? Publish a newsletter? Speak in Hyde Park? Study politics? Talked to anyone in YOUR government to make them aware of your concerns?

So we should be able to influence things, but you're not, even though it's concerning your country?
 
Klaus
Posts: 21344
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: The Weak US Dollar

Wed Jul 25, 2007 7:02 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 93):
And just for the record, Australia suffered worse unemployment during the depression than either the US or the UK, not sure about Germany and France.

Well.. let me put it this way: After rampant hyper-inflation and near-total bankruptcy of the population, our version of the New Deal was proposed by a small man with a funny mustache. Let's just say we've decided to throw that recipe away after a less than digestible experience.

That is one of the points that have been made above in this thread.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 93):
What really annoys the outside world is when you get a system associated with the sub-prime mortgage market that starts to smell a bit like a pyramid scheme, crossed with Enron and stuffed with Ponzis. And it is very difficult to be smart and stay away because the tendrils get inserted into the most conservative of financial systems. You really need a bit better regulation, not necessarily more, just better. How is that for a constructive suggestion?

Which is exactly why the german government proposed tighter regulations of exactly those markets at the last G8 summit, which the american, british and japanese governments adamantly refused. And then came the Bear Stearns hedge fund crashes, which will not be the last ones and even their repercussions haven't played out yet.

Quoting Arrow (Reply 95):
Or would they eventually move to price their product in a higher valuer, more stable currency like the euro?

They have already begun to move there - the producers are already compensating the loss in value of the Dollar with an appreciation of their products. The change in the actual label - while significant - will just be a formality at some point. Although I doubt that they'd agree to the fixation on a single currency again. More likely they'd just switch to flexible handling of the currencies they'd accept or not.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 97):
You guys haven't been discussing the dollar, it's the same old pissing and moaning.

You're the only one in here actually bitching and moaning right now, and flogging your poor decaying horse into battle again and again...  mischievous 

Having a deeply misanthropic outlook on the world is certainly an unfortunate affliction; But other people will simply continue to take an interest and proceed to exchange their opinions which you're so revolted by. Fact of life.

And most of us are actually not the boring, ugly, hateful and nosy morons as we may appear to you. Some of us are actually nice people which may have the odd point or two every once in a while. Not that I'd make any claims about myself, of course, but you yourself are free to take your share of the compliment! Big grin

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 97):
And because of that, I fear, what goes on here comes under the general heading of what Mick Jagger meant when he said "We all need somebody we can pee on".

What is it with you and the fascination with all kinds of excretion today?  eyebrow 

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