fumanchewd
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As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:04 am

As British forces pull back from Basra in southern Iraq, Shiite militias there have escalated a violent battle against each other for political supremacy and control over oil resources, deepening concerns among some U.S. officials in Baghdad that elements of Iraq's Shiite-dominated national government will turn on one another once U.S. troops begin to draw down.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20137025/

As has been discussed in previous threads, is this an indication of what will happen after the US withdrawal (whenever it happens)? Please keep the thread relative to what may happen and not past politics.
In the time of chimpanzees, I was a monkey...
 
halls120
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:39 am

Quoting Fumanchewd (Thread starter):
As has been discussed in previous threads, is this an indication of what will happen after the US withdrawal (whenever it happens)? Please keep the thread relative to what may happen and not past politics.

Probably.

On the positive side, did anyone see the 60 Minutes segment on the Kurdistan region of Iraq?

As time goes on, I'm becoming increasingly enamored of the idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
aloges
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:45 am

Quoting Fumanchewd (Thread starter):
As has been discussed in previous threads, is this an indication of what will happen after the US withdrawal (whenever it happens)? Please keep the thread relative to what may happen and not past politics.

I think so. Iraq is no historic nation and it shows. Maybe it's a vent for international terrorist activity nowadays more than a breeding ground, who can really tell, but even aside from all the imported terrorism it seems to be a country that simply should not exist.

The population is largely divided in three groups, and as long as anyone tries to keep them together in one country, there will be fights for power and hence violence. The Sunnis and the Shia seem to get it beautifully right elsewhere, but the little bit of history that Iraq does have as one country makes that sort of coexistence impossible in the place. Then you've got the Kurds in the north who appear to get along rather nicely when compared to the rest of the country, but still might be dragged into further conflict.

So in short, even though it's for vastly different reasons, Iraq as a nation will probably fail like Somalia did. The latter is de facto divided, even though nobody recognises Somaliland and Puntland as countries; something similar could happen with the Sunnis getting one piece of Iraq, the Shia another and the Kurds - bare with me, Turkey - a third one.
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aloges
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:49 am

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):
On the positive side, did anyone see the 60 Minutes segment on the Kurdistan region of Iraq?

Can't say I'd had a chance, but anything involving possible independence of a Kurdish nation will drive Turkey up the wall. Iran, too, for good measure.

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):
As time goes on, I'm becoming increasingly enamored of the idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.

Should I be scared? You read my mind while I was typing!  scared 
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pacificjourney
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:59 am

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):
As time goes on, I'm becoming increasingly enamored of the idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.

Of all the future options this is the least likely. Turkey will NEVER let it happen, to say nothing of Syria or Iran.
" Help, help ... I'm being oppressed ... "
 
halls120
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:20 am

Quoting Pacificjourney (Reply 4):
Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):As time goes on, I'm becoming increasingly enamored of the idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.
Of all the future options this is the least likely. Turkey will NEVER let it happen, to say nothing of Syria or Iran.

if we follow conventional wisdom, yes. But take a look at a globe circa 1947, and a globe today. Do you think anyone in 1946 would have predicted the globe of 2007?
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
mham001
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:54 am

Quoting Pacificjourney (Reply 4):

Of all the future options this is the least likely. Turkey will NEVER let it happen, to say nothing of Syria or Iran.

Interesting comment. What could they do to prevent it from happening?
 
pacificjourney
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 4:04 pm

They could invade and occupy the place, pull it to pieces and then leave until the next time ... as they have done at least twice if I recall correctly and are currently threatening to do again unless cross-border by Kurdish guerillas is stopped by the other current occupying forces.

But, you say, the US would stop them, but I doubt they really want a scrap with Turkey, the best and most stable ally they have in the region not to mention NATO member. If it comes to either keeping Kurds or Turkey onside, it's really no contest.
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oly720man
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:40 pm

Quoting Fumanchewd (Thread starter):
Please keep the thread relative to what may happen and not past politics.

In Iraq it is impossible to talk about what may happen without reference to the past. Sunni and Shia are killing each other because of 80 years of Iraqi history and 1400 years of Islamic history. The Shia are fighting amongst themselves over power and influence.

If it wasn't so serious it would be reminiscent of the different groups fighting for freedom in "Life of Brian", or more seriously, the fragmented groups in the Spanish Civil War who fought each other as much as Franco, but that was politics rather than religion.

It is a heady mixture of a new country, more accurately a new political landscape, the removal of an oppressor (Saddam) and strong religious feelings and expressing that identity. Lots of room for individuals or groups to try and grab something for themselves and/or their beliefs which will mean getting rid of any opposition.

http://www.iwpr.net/?p=icr&s=f&o=337691&apc_state=henh

And at the end of it all are the biggest untapped oil reserves in the middle east that would have Iraq competing with Saudi Arabia for control of the oil world. And whoever has oil has oil companies wanting to get the oil out of the ground. And, as we all know, oil is king.

http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aairaqioil.htm
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/irqindx.htm
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AeroWesty
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:17 pm

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):
As time goes on, I'm becoming increasingly enamored of the idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.

I've been suggesting that going back over a year, only to hear bunches of flack from the "we're there to save Iraq from itself" crowd. We might as well do it and be done with it--the Iraqis don't want a multi-sectarian country/government. And the U.S. building an $800 million embassy in Baghdad ain't gonna make it happen no matter what "we" may want.
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frequentflyer
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:29 pm

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):
As time goes on, I'm becoming increasingly enamored of the idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.

Same here. It looks like it would match Reality and at the same time provide for a new approach to things that is desperately needed right now. Am sick of seeing our Soldiers die for ... look at the Country today.
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mham001
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:34 pm

Quoting Pacificjourney (Reply 7):
They could invade and occupy the place, pull it to pieces and then leave until the next time ... as they have done at least twice if I recall correctly and are currently threatening to do again unless cross-border by Kurdish guerillas is stopped by the other current occupying forces.

But to complete the scenario, they would have to march all the way to Baghdad and forcibly hold the government together. I don't see that happening. The best they could do is spank the Kurds and *maybe* hold the territory.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:53 pm

Unless there is a united force to keep things organised in place.It would be a bad desicion to withdraw the UK & US troops.
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Dougloid
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Wed Aug 08, 2007 11:57 pm

I listened to Mr. Brownback give a speech on what he thinks Iraq may look like in the future and I must say, although I do not like his domestic politics he has a good handle on the situation.

He gave a short history of Iraq, and how it was created out of the wreckage of the Ottoman collapse.

He sees a federalist country as the only workable way of keeping Iraq together and I tend to think he's on to something. He also observes that the consequences of a skedaddle by Uncle would be worse than anything that's gone before and that we're obliged to prevent such a genocide whether we like it or not. He also states that we cannot possibly let Iraq's neighbors dismember it.

He's arguing for a diplomatic surge to get the parties to the table and keep them on task until they figure out what they want to do with their country.

On the subject of Kurdistan, maybe if Iran and Turkey and to a lesser extent Syria would respect the legitimate aspirations of the Kurds toward a homeland, autonomy and self determination, they'd find the Kurds to be more agreeable.
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fumanchewd
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 1:59 am

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 8):
In Iraq it is impossible to talk about what may happen without reference to the past. Sunni and Shia are killing each other because of 80 years of Iraqi history and 1400 years of Islamic history. The Shia are fighting amongst themselves over power and influence.

Reread. I wrote politics. I don't consider general history to be politics, although it may include politics. I didn't want this thread to mainly go "the way of Bush". The die is cast in that regard, but mentioning Iraqi history is relevant.
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ME AVN FAN
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:12 am

Quoting Fumanchewd (Thread starter):
relative to what may happe

-
one or two of the Iraqi generals, possibly of the old army, will take over and replace the present government, and establish law and order in a fairly short time
-

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):
idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.

the idea of independent Kurdistan is ok, but the rest into two ? It would be the North and Northwest including Baghdad and the whole West down to the Saudi border to stay with Iraq and the populous south-Mesopotamia including Basra to become a separate state, relatively small in size but with more population than Iraq. BUT many cities and towns and villages are mixed denomination-wise, and there are municipalities with Shi'ite majorities in the North and some with Sunni majorities in the South. Beside the point that a vast part of the population, most likely a definite majority , does NOT much care about denominations.
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Quoting Aloges (Reply 2):
coexistence impossible in the place.

most Sunni and Shi'ite people in Iraq DO coexist peacefully in their everyday-lifes.
-

Quoting Aloges (Reply 2):
Iraq as a nation will probably fail

Iraq, just as practically all other Arab countries is NOT a "nation" but only a country. "Nationalism" in Iraq is either Arab or Kurdish
-
 
AGM100
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:09 am

This article gives a look into what the coalition is doing and how difficult it is. I can not imagine what would happen when we pull out .. I really dont know .. maybe they would all breath a sigh of relief and give a giant group hug.

Our brothers and sisters, moms and dads , risking their lives to bring food into Sadr city .. Fu***** amazing ! And all the enemy has to do is shoot scoot and plant minds..

http://www.michaelyon-online.com/wp/...ead-and-a-circus-part-ii-of-ii.htm
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baroque
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:50 pm

Quoting Aloges (Reply 3):

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):
As time goes on, I'm becoming increasingly enamored of the idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.

Should I be scared? You read my mind while I was typing!

I think you should be very afraid Aloges!  Big grin That said, partition does have attractions as long as Turkey does not go ballistic. Some day, the Turks will figure out that having more unhappy Kurds in their nest is probably not great for their peace of mind!!

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 8):
And at the end of it all are the biggest untapped oil reserves in the middle east that would have Iraq competing with Saudi Arabia for control of the oil world. And whoever has oil has oil companies wanting to get the oil out of the ground. And, as we all know, oil is king.
http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/w...l.htm

Oil at the moment IS king, but pulease, Oly, can we start taking the numbers in sites like that with a couple of kilograms of salt - touch of wormwood might be a good idea too. We know that about 50 billion barrels of the 112 billion barrels of proved oil are "political oil" invented in the 80s to increase their OPEC quota. This is documented on the Peak Oil websites and has been gone over in many many previous threads.
Iraq does have considerable unexplored oil potential, but likely the biggest fields have been found. There are probably a few (as in less than 10 five billion barrel fields each of which would be the basis for a world class oil company but would, as the "French" might say have bugger all effect on world oil reserves.
So there are a couple of problems re oil, yes companies will kill to get at known and possible fields, but the amount of new oil found is not likely to provide a basis for anything other than private aggrandisement. The wrecking of Iraq, makes it more desirable than usual that the main benefits from any new discoveries go to Iraqis and not to shareholders in the west. Finding those fields will not be all that difficult, the potential for new exploration techniques in Iraq is less than in many areas.
Just remember that a great deal of this "information" about how much oil there is comes from similar sources to the "Iraqi oil will pay for the war" advice. Why not use the data provided BEFORE THE INVASION by the Amer Ass Petroleum Geologists on its website, now withdrawn. BUT I can send a copy of anyone wants a copy.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 9):
We might as well do it and be done with it--the Iraqis don't want a multi-sectarian country/government. And the U.S. building an $800 million embassy in Baghdad ain't gonna make it happen no matter what "we" may want.

 checkmark  The real equation is not
Equation 1. Withdrawal = internecine warfare
but rather

Equation 2. Occupation = resentment and resistance = more violence = greater internecine warfare while attacking occupation forces = more violence "putting down terrorists" = final withdrawal = internecine warfare.

There is little reason to suppose that the internecine warfare at the end of equation 2 will be less than that for equation 1, therefore why not cut out all the other terms in equation 2?

Or quit while you are behind, rather than when you are even further behind!
 
cfalk
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:44 pm

It's always been known that if the US pulls out of Iraq too early, a repeat of what happened in southeast asia (where some 3 million people died after the Vietnam pullout) will happen again. Every Iraqi who worked for the government, every civilian who gets fingered by a neighbor as having said he hopes for a peaceful transfer of power or expressed gratitude for the American intervention will be a target. The body count could easiy run into the millions.

But it seems that most democrats (supposedly the party of compassion and concern) just don't give a sh&t.
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
ME AVN FAN
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:50 pm

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 18):
that if the US pulls out of Iraq too early, a repeat of what happened in southeast asia (where some 3 million people died after the Vietnam pullout)

-
well, you in a way compare the government of Mr al-Maliki with the unfortunate government of Mr Nguyen Van Theu and the lousy one of General Lon Nol and the lame one of Prince Souvanna Phouma and Souvannarong, which is not a very lucky argument. Violent regime changes often lead to turmoil and "collateral damage".
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The USA canNOT leave "too early" as it is late anyway. The later they get out the worse the outcome.
-
 
oly720man
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:36 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 17):
Why not use the data provided BEFORE THE INVASION by the Amer Ass Petroleum Geologists on its website, now withdrawn. BUT I can send a copy of anyone wants a copy.

This? Or this taken from it?

http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/gong03/index.htm
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cfalk
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:40 pm

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 19):
The later they get out the worse the outcome.

I am very interested to see the logic behind that argument.
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
baroque
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:25 pm

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 20):
This? Or this taken from it?

http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/do...x.htm

The very one. Where the heck did that appear from? Thank you kindly for the Lazarus effort. Now we have a live link to it.

It was on the AAPG website and then vanished without trace as far as I could tell although I had been wily enough to download it first. I did search archives, but maybe at that stage it was in the process of being transferred.

If you look at the table of oilfields in the PDF, you will see the two super giants are half and 70% produced, so not so super any more. And on the maps, it is fairly easy to tell that targets for additional super giants have pretty much been tested.

It was not on the main pages very long, and I still wonder if someone asked for it to be moved to a location that was more difficult to find, hmmm, is that a blackbird I hear singing in the night!!
 
baroque
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:27 pm

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 21):
Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 19):
The later they get out the worse the outcome.

I am very interested to see the logic behind that argument.

I will be interested to read MAF's reply, but mine is that the occupation is making matters worse rather than better. See the equations in reply 17.
 
oly720man
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:47 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 22):
The very one. Where the heck did that appear from?

Found it linked from here

http://www.durangobill.com/OilCrunch.html
wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
 
ME AVN FAN
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:58 pm

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 21):
The later they get out the worse the outcome.

I am very interested to see the logic behind that argument.

The longer the USA wait,
A) the more will the disintegration of Iraq take place in the minds of people
B) the more will the US-installed "democracy" lose any credibility
C) the more will corruption creep into the present governmental structure
D) the more will the extremists get political credibility
E) the more will the USA become DISliked in Iraq
-
 
baroque
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 24):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 22):
The very one. Where the heck did that appear from?

Found it linked from here

http://www.durangobill.com/OilCrunch.html

Ah yes, the link phenomenon. It is a wondrous development of this age is it not.

Interesting site too. It is worth quoting a para from "your" site, which represents a re-evaluation of reserves from the 49 or so billion barrels in the original article.

"The "official" measurement of Iraq's oil reserves (according to the Oil & Gas Journal) is 112.5 billion barrels. The ASPO model assumes that Iraq's remaining oil reserves plus future discoveries will total about 118 billion barrels (ASPO Newsletter 26), and they will be increasing production in the future. A technical article published by AAPG's Search and Discovery subsidiary indicates there are only 41 billion barrels left in Iraq's 28 largest fields. (http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/gong03/index.htm) Since then, there have been hints that Iraq's fields have been damaged by inefficient production methods over the last decade, and this would reduce recoverable reserves still further."

I am not sure that the Shell revision of reserves should be mixed up with the Iraqi disparities. The Iraqi differences are deliberate lying. The Shell problem was one of different criteria for evaluating reserves. I could go further but it would need a thread on how to calculate petroleum reserves using various reporting standard.

With Iraq, there were no standards, just political convenience.

And the worrying thing is that the US ended up telling exactly the same lies as the Saddam admininstration - strange thing that!!

And lest we get deleted as off thread, here is another nice quote from the site where you found the AAPG survey.

" Other signs that should appear in the financial markets would be falling bond prices (rising interest rates) in spite of Federal Reserve (and other government) efforts. Capital requirements for frantic searches to find more oil will combine with generalized commodity inflation. The combination will suck money out of the bond markets. This phase hasn’t started yet, but may do so in coming months. If/when you see 30-year bond rates go over 6%, it should be a good confirmation that “The Crunch” is underway. This will probably be accompanied by oil prices in excess of $40. Eventually most other securities will start their declines as the era of growth comes to an end, and the era of contraction begins. "

Which just goes to show the site was written in 2004. Looks like $75 is the new $40!!
 
rfields5421
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:15 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 13):
On the subject of Kurdistan, maybe if Iran and Turkey and to a lesser extent Syria would respect the legitimate aspirations of the Kurds toward a homeland, autonomy and self determination, they'd find the Kurds to be more agreeable.

Those countries will never let that happen - and they will be supported by almost every other nation in the region.

There are too many ethnic/ cultural based small economically unviable countries in the world - adding another will only contribute to the problem. Plus Turkey and Iran have an issue with other small ethnic/ cultural groups who will want the same level of independence and autonomy.
 
AGM100
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:48 am

In some ways those wanting a pull out are correct that the "occupation" is making thing's worse. The occupation as clearly shown in the article I posted from Yon , shows how our forces work. If the US pulls ,out the dominate force in Iraq would move on the weaker and marginalize it. The conflicts would be settled pretty quickly I would assume ... because their would not be any. At this point I would assume the Shia would take care of the Sunni pretty quick and all systems would work under their control. This defeats the idea of stability , democracy and coexistence.

The US must stay until the day that all the citizens can work together , or at least stay until the current overriding hostilities subside. This is the best case scenario I know , but pulling out sounds grim to me.
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
cfalk
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:55 am

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 25):
The longer the USA wait,
A) the more will the disintegration of Iraq take place in the minds of people

The biggest fear of the Iraqis seems to be that, now that things are going in the right direction, the US will no longer be there to back them up.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 25):
B) the more will the US-installed "democracy" lose any credibility

Among the radical left, perhaps, but democracy has never been popular with them anyway...

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 25):
C) the more will corruption creep into the present governmental structure

The report states that the government is getting a grip on the problem, and that the more inept and corrupt leaders in both the government and the military are being weeded out.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 25):
D) the more will the extremists get political credibility

They are losing credibility hand over fist right now, because the Iraqis (finally) are getting tired of bombs and their inhuman tactics.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 25):
E) the more will the USA become DISliked in Iraq

Seems to be going the other way.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/iraq/2007/FinalBenchmarkReport.pdf

There is still a long way to go, but things are starting to show positive results. Which is why the left is desperately trying to declare defeat ASAP and sabotage the process. They know that if things finally start pulling together in Iraq, it will mean a complete disaster for the Democrats in the 2008 elections.

I certainly don't mean to say that Bush does not deserve a kick in the ass for his handling of Iraq over the past 4-5 years. He does. But the Dems seem to be desperately trying to make sure that Iraq remains a failure for their own political gain, and I don't think I will ever be able to forgive them for that.
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
ME AVN FAN
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Fri Aug 10, 2007 1:29 am

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 29):
the US will no longer be there to back them up.

most Iraqis do not believe that the USA is the needed factor to "back up" anything but rather discredits whomever is perceived as to be too close to them. The USA-presence is the justification for many radical movements around in Iraq, and I by this do not only speak about the various rebel movements
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Quoting Cfalk (Reply 29):
B) the more will the US-installed "democracy" lose any credibility
--
Among the radical left, perhaps, but democracy has never been popular with them anyway...

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Beside the point that I have some idea what to you is "radical left" it is to be mentioned that the Communist Party of Iraq flourished in the times when Iraq had a democratically elected parliament from the mid 1920ies to 1958 . And the propped-up "democracy" around in Baghdad at present has severely damaged and discredited democracy in the region already, also among staunch right-wingers. But democracy in the Arab World has been popular with left-wing parties far more than with the right-wingers anyway.
-

-

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 29):
The report states that the government is getting a grip on the problem, and that the more inept and corrupt leaders in both the government and the military are being weeded out.

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It looks acceptably at present, but a continued US presence might make it worse again
-
 
ME AVN FAN
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Fri Aug 10, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 29):

http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/iraq/2...t.pdf

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This link cannot be opened at present, but I anyway do not see the USA gaining popularity.
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A very important aspect however often is ignored and that is that radicalists of various sides may lose popularity inside Iraq and support outside. You have to see that Sunnis and Shi'ites in general still live together, not without problems, but nevertheless in a peaceful way. But of course as soon as there is trouble, the media will jump of joy and talk about whatever happened at length. Some people working together in an office or a garage or a factory, families of various denominations and other such people living together in cities and villages is not for the headlines.
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As much as I detest Bush junior, I would welcome the arrival of peace in Iraq under whatever leadership that may be. But to say it again, Bush might be best off if starting a gradual withdrawal. If I was with his advisors I would place the final withdrawal onto the 30th January 2008 .
 
baroque
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RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Fri Aug 10, 2007 7:53 pm

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 31):
Quoting Cfalk (Reply 29):

http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/iraq/2...t.pdf

-
This link cannot be opened at present, but I anyway do not see the USA gaining popularity.

Opened for me, but trust me MAF, it was the usual propaganda so you missed not a thing.

So not really a positive thing in sight, but all phrased up to look positive. Basically, it got the WMD treatment in reverse. Oh dear, how awful, how do we make it look at least like progress. No problem, out with the spin machine, reverse direction, there she goes.
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:44 am

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:17 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 23):
will be interested to read MAF's reply, but mine is that the occupation is making matters worse rather than better. See the equations in reply 17.

Uncle's like a guy who's got a tiger by the ears. Hanging on is difficult but letting go may be a lot worse.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:36 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 33):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 23):
will be interested to read MAF's reply, but mine is that the occupation is making matters worse rather than better. See the equations in reply 17.

Uncle's like a guy who's got a tiger by the ears. Hanging on is difficult but letting go may be a lot worse.

Not at all a bad description. Depends a bit on what the tiger is really really irritated by, if you drop off, it might go after something else and leave you in peace. Or then again!!!!

However, I do need to ask which tiger you suggest we are riding. I think the Sunni and Shia tigers will go for the Al Q tiger. Then they will work out the pecking order among themselves. God knows what Maliki is doing!
 
AGM100
Posts: 5077
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2003 2:16 am

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:46 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 34):
God knows what Maliki is doing!

Serving his time as the elected PM in Iraq .... next election lets see who they put in. Or should the US just hang him and put someone else in.

No one on here knows what the PM is doing , I know things look bad but right now we just do not know all the behind the scenes things that are happening.
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:52 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 33):
a guy who's got a tiger by the ears. Hanging on is difficult but letting go may be a lot worse.

-
It was JFK who in one of his speeches said "those who wanted to ride a tiger landed up inside"
-

Quoting Baroque (Reply 34):
the Sunni and Shia tigers will go for the Al Q tiger.

it is a tiger of an Arab committee, the head of a Sunni, the belly of a Shi'ite, the back of a Kurd and the tail of elQaeda, and most certainly looks like a CAMEL !
 rotfl 
 
AGM100
Posts: 5077
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2003 2:16 am

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:08 am

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 36):
it is a tiger of an Arab committee, the head of a Sunni, the belly of a Shi'ite, the back of a Kurd and the tail of elQaeda, and most certainly looks like a CAMEL !

And none of them have a clue what they are doing other than hording the oil profits and screwing everyone else. None of these groups IMHO can offer any kind of future other than the same old ..very old stagnant stinking existence for the common person. So hold on !
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 35):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 34):
God knows what Maliki is doing!

Serving his time as the elected PM in Iraq .... next election lets see who they put in. Or should the US just hang him and put someone else in.

No one on here knows what the PM is doing , I know things look bad but right now we just do not know all the behind the scenes things that are happening.

We certainly don't seem to know what Maliki is at, and it is possible he is beavering away in a positive manner, also in a negative manner (almost whatever the reference point) but the odds are that if he is moving at all, it is round in small circles. Probably closely constrained by factors beyond our ken.

After the next election see who "who" puts in. Maliki could barely be said to have been elected. One of the troubles for M is that "we" did not seem to like Allawi (either) so the much more better Maliki was pushed into the job. I have lost count of the "who it should be" debates. Appointing quislings is not as easy as it seems!

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 36):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 34):
the Sunni and Shia tigers will go for the Al Q tiger.

it is a tiger of an Arab committee, the head of a Sunni, the belly of a Shi'ite, the back of a Kurd and the tail of elQaeda, and most certainly looks like a CAMEL !

Could be MAF, but they tell me that camels can do a bit of damage too - bite at one end, kick at the other, and in between are prone to lie on you! Probably not as single minded as tigers either. It does appear as if the Al Q are a tail more than anything else and I get the feeling most are fed up of being wagged by it.
 
MKEdude
Posts: 960
Joined: Thu May 05, 2005 9:55 am

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:26 am

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 1):
As time goes on, I'm becoming increasingly enamored of the idea of partitioning Iraq into three states.

 checkmark  This really is the only sensible solution. Will it actually happen? Hell no!

Saddam was a bad guy for sure, but to rule a country that has no business existing in the first place it's going to take somebody with an iron fist. Given the freedom to act on their own impulses Iraqis are just going to run around settling old scores in an orgy of death that's going to happen whether we stay or go. Saddam was an opportunist, and he only turned on us after we stopped paying him off. If we had just gritted our teeth and written him a goddamn check we'd all be better off today.
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline." Frank Zappa
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:33 am

Quoting MKEdude (Reply 39):
If we had just gritted our teeth and written him a goddamn check we'd all be better off today.

Would have been cheaper at least. Probably fewer dead Iraqis. Might have been a problem when his sons succeeded him - then again, old Saddam might have bumped them off too for all we know!
 
GDB
Posts: 13274
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: As British Leave, Basra Deteriorates

Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:55 am

The recent deaths in combat of UK forces, reflect that they are far from 'holed up in their compound' as anti war types say here, or how some more pro war types say in the US, about Basra.
But, the massive efforts to make the Iraqi security forces be able to stand up (much less not be totally corrupt and sectarian), seem to have had not much effect.

One doc some time ago, showed Iraqi Army recruits given the best training the UK forces could provide, under the watchful eye of British Army discipline, yet right after the passing out parade, they reverted to type, with clans, religious groups, and/or generally being 'on the take'.
And exactly the same seems to have happened when the US forces have done their best to train the Iraqis too.

Probably it was always doomed to failure, even if the incredibly stupid decisions by Rumsfeld, Cheney, Brenmer et al, had not been taken in all their ignorance and hubris, pre and immediately post invasion.
That it now seems that the UK Government was against these, and verbally lobbied without success, (Cheney makes a point as being dismissive of senior UK politicians), it does not absolve them really.
Since they had a big card to play, pre invasion-withdraw support, or more so post Saddam falling, withdraw the forces if the current course carries on, listen to those with some experience here, not a bunch of exiles who all too often, turned out to be crooks.
And preparing to shed 'blood and treasure' gave them the right to play these cards.

But there is another way of looking at it.
Niall Ferguson, historian and broadcaster, is of a conservative mind-set, he supported the war in Iraq, thinks that the US as the Superpower (compared to Russia and/or China), is an inherently good thing, with the democracy and free trade etc.
He reckons that if the US wants to maintain this position, it must be prepared to fully face up to what this sometimes means, in the case of Iraq, maybe meaning the US stays in Iraq until a totally viable security situation, a pluralist society and democractic government is FULLY embedded, even if this takes DECADES, (he mentions 40 years at worst), even if that also means a return to the Draft.

An far out view? If you supported the war, no, in fact it is an honest one, the one that also accepts the consequences of the actions that initiated the whole thing.
But then, Ferguson also thinks the whole 'amount of troops for the invasion' and decisions made afterwards, were wrong too.
Also an example of not facing up to consequences.
Frankly, this casual comtempt for the lives of ordinary Iraqis, was criminal.
Cheney and the other (Chicken)Hawks got their way, and have got the worst of all worlds.

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