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LHStarAlliance
Topic Author
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Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 11:05 am

What countries could be atomic Powers if they wanted ? Countries which have the technology and knowledge to do it and would just have to start producing ..

Not countries like Iran , which are trying to get the tech or Knowledge .

I'ld say :

Germany
Norway
Canada
Sweden
Italy(??)
Spain(???)
Japan


anymore ?

Constantin
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plobax
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 11:07 am

Switzerland ?
Brazil ?
Argentina ?
Australia ?
 
LHStarAlliance
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 11:13 am



Quoting Plobax (Reply 1):
Brazil ?

No I don't think Brazil has the knowledge neither Argentina ...
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bill142
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 11:14 am



Quoting Plobax (Reply 1):
Australia ?

I doubt it. We only have one nuclear reactor here and it's used for creating mainly nuclear medicines. Australia having a nuclear arsenal would create instability in the region and could potentially create an arms race in region.
 
pelican
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 11:26 am

South Africa.
Japan is often regarded as virtual nuclear power because they could produce nuclear weapons within a very short time without much research.

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 2):
No I don't think Brazil has the knowledge neither Argentina ...

Well, both countries had nuclear reasearch programs for decades and both countries have nuclear power plants.

pelican
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:10 pm

The who world could potentially become nuclear powers, whether the respective countries want to, can afford to, or would be allowed to though is another thing...
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cpd
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:37 pm



Quoting Bill142 (Reply 3):
I doubt it. We only have one nuclear reactor here and it's used for creating mainly nuclear medicines. Australia having a nuclear arsenal would create instability in the region and could potentially create an arms race in region.

A nuclear arsenal is probably not hard for this country to acquire. If it were absolutely needed - it'd probably be in a week or two through the help of other countries.

But I agree, it would be quite dangerous for us to have them. It would obviously spark an arms race.
 
pelican
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:42 pm



Quoting Cpd (Reply 6):
A nuclear arsenal is probably not hard for this country to acquire. If it were absolutely needed - it'd probably be in a week or two through the help of other countries.

Probably, but starting your own production would need some years.

pelican
 
L410Turbolet
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 1:01 pm

Any country that has a nuclear power plant(s) basically has them to only cover up production of nuclear arms...

signed,

Klaus
 
pilotdude09
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 1:34 pm



Quoting Cpd (Reply 6):
A nuclear arsenal is probably not hard for this country to acquire. If it were absolutely needed - it'd probably be in a week or two through the help of other countries.

But I agree, it would be quite dangerous for us to have them. It would obviously spark an arms race.

And Australia has one of the biggest deposits of Uranium, Western Australia is very rich in it too and thats only the known deposits.

Once the iron ore and gas starts slowing down, you will see a major push for uranium to be mined, especially in WA. The mining boom is what is keeping the Australian Economy where it is at the moment.
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connies4ever
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 2:22 pm



Quoting Pelican (Reply 4):
South Africa.

Actually had nuclear weapons but voluntarily disarmed in the 90s.

Candidate country : Taiwan. Ultimately might be the threat that holds the PRC back in the longer run.

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 8):
Any country that has a nuclear power plant(s) basically has them to only cover up production of nuclear arms...

Stupid statement.  banghead 
Canada has > 20 power reactors plus many research reactors, yet has no nuclear weapons. The presence of nuclear power reactors is not ipso facto evidence of a weapons program. The fuel, for one thing, cannot be simply turned into weaponry. Unless you're running a fast reactor, which implies a very high level of sophisitication. Power reactors and weapons are two different things.
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pelican
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 3:19 pm



Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 10):
Actually had nuclear weapons but voluntarily disarmed in the 90s.

Indeed. That's why I added them to the list. If you can build 'em once you can do it a second time. And they have still the fission material (Plutonium or Uranium?).

pelican
 
connies4ever
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:04 pm



Quoting Pelican (Reply 11):
Indeed. That's why I added them to the list. If you can build 'em once you can do it a second time. And they have still the fission material (Plutonium or Uranium?).

It's not clear whether or not S Africa has retained their fissile inventory. There was some chatter a decade or so back to the extent that the fissile material -- or possibly the actual weapons -- were airlifted to Israel. Israel & S Africa cooperated closely on the weapons programme in the 70s and there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that a joint test was conducted off Marion Island in the autumn of 1979 (see links: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/farr.htm & http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB190/index.htm ).

Israel has always maintained an 'opaque' policy regarding nuclear weapons, neither confirming for denying their existence, although pretty much everyone in this business is positive they have them, perhaps as many as 150-160. And the means to deliver them, for sure.

S Africa basically defanged itself. Nuclear weapons are expensive to develop, and expensive to maintain both in terms of the secure environment you need with safeguards to ensure an idiot doesn't start WW3, and also expensive to maintain technically. So my only thought here is that the new government under Nelson Mandela decided it just wasn't worth the cost.
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LTU932
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:27 pm

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Thread starter):
Germany
Norway
Canada
Sweden
Italy(??)
Spain(???)
Japan

Germany will never produce nukes (they'll only use nuclear material for civil nuclear reactors), nor use any of the American nukes on German soil. After signing the Zwei-plus-Vier-Vertrag, aka the Unification Treaty, the united Germany has vowed to never produce, or use weapons of mass destruction (this also includes that Germany will never produce or use biological and chemical weapons). So remove Germany from the list.

[Edited 2008-01-20 11:29:48]
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LHStarAlliance
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:31 pm



Quoting LTU932 (Reply 13):

...
 Yeah sure

Is it so difficult to understand ?

If Germany wanted , there wouldn't be any problem with Knowledge or Technology , to get it , I know we won't but if we desired we could .

Constantin
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LTU932
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:36 pm



Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 14):
If Germany wanted , there wouldn't be any problem with Knowledge or Technology , to get it , I know we won't but if we desired we could .

I know. They could use such technology to make weapons of mass destruction, but Germany at the same time made a voluntary contractual obligation when negotiating Zwei-plus-Vier to neither build or use WMDs. So even if this is a hypothetical discussion, it ain't gonna happen, neither hypothetically or realistically. If Germany was to produce nukes, it would be a treaty violation, and the only way to allow Germany to make nukes is by modifying Zwei-plus-Vier, which ain't gonna happen.

Deutschland wird niemals irgendwelche eigene ABC-Waffen bauen!
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
zak
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:40 pm

i have seen an analysis regarding the potential nuclear states. there are indeed a bunch of countries mentioned above on the list, germany and japan were the two top runners of the proxy nuclear countries, with an asterix stating that they are voluntarily not nuclear, and that they, given the political will, were the only two countries in this analysis who were assumed to be able to be able to get there under 12 month after project start.
this also included the ability to project such weapons by various means.
10=2
 
LHStarAlliance
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:41 pm



Quoting LTU932 (Reply 15):
I know. They could use such technology to make weapons of mass destruction, but Germany at the same time made a voluntary contractual obligation when negotiating Zwei-plus-Vier to neither build or use WMDs. So even if this is a hypothetical discussion, it ain't gonna happen, neither hypothetically or realistically. If Germany was to produce nukes, it would be a treaty violation, and the only way to allow Germany to make nukes is by modifying Zwei-plus-Vier, which ain't gonna happen.

Deutschland wird niemals irgendwelche eigene ABC-Waffen bauen!

 bored 

Same for Switzerland or Australia - they could but the won't


Ist mir vollkommen egal on wir ABC Waffen haben oder nicht !
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Joni
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:50 pm

The NPT review process has IIRC identified 44 countries that have the ability to produce nuclear weapons if a decision to do so would be made.
 
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LTU932
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:52 pm

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 17):
Same for Switzerland or Australia - they could but the won't

To elaborate further:

If this was the Cold War, then yes, Germany may have considered building their own nukes, because the so-called DDR had a stash of Soviet nukes and could have attacked the West whenever it pleased. However, even then the allies would have had their reservations on that and if Germany did take the decision, it would have been accompanied with severe restrictions from the allies. However, the Cold War ended almost 17 years ago with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the breakdown of the Soviet Union, so Germany doesn't have any reason to have any nukes (except for the already existing stockpile, which are American built and controlled nukes) nor build nukes. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the peaceful use of nuclear material (e.g. as reactors for generating electricity or even as a new kind of propulsion system for space travel), but I'm against nukes unless they're absolutely necessary. And for Germany, having nukes is NOT even remotely necessary. Nowadays, we can defend ourselves just as well with conventional weapons.

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 17):
Ist mir vollkommen egal on wir ABC Waffen haben oder nicht !

Then why are you so keen on having Germany build nuclear weapons?

EDIT: Major typo

[Edited 2008-01-20 11:56:42]
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
greasespot
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:13 pm

It is not a question of wanting them build nukes....He is asking which countries have the ability to do so....Knowlege scientists...access to reacters..etc....NO one is saying Germany will or wants to build them....But there is nothing stopping them should they really decide they wanted to....This is a hypothetical discussion

Same for a lot of countries...The do not build nukes becasue they do not have the know how...they chose not to voluntarily...

GS
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MD11junkie
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:25 pm

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 2):
No I don't think Brazil has the knowledge neither Argentina ...

What do you base this comment on? Brazil and Argentina have shown that they are big nuclear powers in the southern cone of the Americas. That's why BOTH countries have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and made themselves enforcers of the good use of nuclear energy in South America.

Both Brazil and Argentina have their own made nuclear plants, and being Argentina one of the first countries to have water cooled reactors.

Quoting Pelican (Reply 4):
Well, both countries had nuclear reasearch programs for decades and both countries have nuclear power plants.

We still do. Brazil has a much better funded program though.

Gaston - The MD11junkie

[Edited 2008-01-20 13:26:57]
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bhmbaglock
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:27 pm



Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 10):
Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 8):
Any country that has a nuclear power plant(s) basically has them to only cover up production of nuclear arms...


Stupid statement.

Just to be clear, Klaus has made this statement several times, Turbolet is not stating this as fact. You lost some of the meaning of his statement by omitting the "signed by" element when quoting him.

btw, I agree that this is a stupid conclusion but each to his own.
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scrubbsywg
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:53 pm

i'm not sure if this is totally going with what the thread starter meant, but my friend is a student at a university where Lloyd Axworth(former foreign affairs minister for canada) is the president and he lectures in the poli sci department. He was at a lecture where Mr. axworthy blatently stated that canada still had nukes on its soil that it essentially controlled. these were 'given' to canada by the americans during the cold war and we haven't given them back and they havent asked for them back.

who knows the truth, though.
 
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LTU932
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:55 pm



Quoting Greasespot (Reply 20):
It is not a question of wanting them build nukes....He is asking which countries have the ability to do so....Knowlege scientists...access to reacters..etc....NO one is saying Germany will or wants to build them....But there is nothing stopping them should they really decide they wanted to....This is a hypothetical discussion

And I responded to the thread starter that this ain't gonna happen neither hypothetically nor realistically because of a contractual obligation, regardless of whether Germany has the means to build a nuclear weapon or not.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
oldeuropean
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 10:13 pm

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 24):
And I responded to the thread starter that this ain't gonna happen neither hypothetically nor realistically because of a contractual obligation, regardless of whether Germany has the means to build a nuclear weapon or not.

Very naive in my eyes. Every obligation can be broken. It's like the continous changes in our constitution and the former Grundgesetz. Also agreements with other countries can be changed or get sacked. If in future a political group with a majority wants to have German nukes, they could make German nukes possible.

Axel

[Edited 2008-01-20 14:15:41]
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LHStarAlliance
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Sun Jan 20, 2008 10:14 pm



Quoting LTU932 (Reply 24):
And I responded to the thread starter that this ain't gonna happen neither hypothetically nor realistically because of a contractual obligation, regardless of whether Germany has the means to build a nuclear weapon or not.

Why are you responding to something I already know , and I haven't asked ?

I asked what countries could , and not what countries will or not ...

Constantin
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pelican
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:30 am



Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 12):
It's not clear whether or not S Africa has retained their fissile inventory.

Well, sources like globalsecurity.orgsay it's still in Pelindaba. South Africa declared it's fissile inventory to the IAEA which confirmed S. Africa had nuclear six nuclear weapons dismantled. The IAEA is still monitoring the fissile inventory of South Africa. So it's still there.

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 12):
There was some chatter a decade or so back to the extent that the fissile material -- or possibly the actual weapons -- were airlifted to Israel.

This is just chatter. http://f40.iaea.org/worldatom/Period...ls/Bulletin/Bull371/baeckmann.html

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 12):
. So my only thought here is that the new government under Nelson Mandela decided it just wasn't worth the cost.

It was F.W. de Klerk's decision to dismantle their nukes...

Quoting Zak (Reply 16):
i have seen an analysis regarding the potential nuclear states. there are indeed a bunch of countries mentioned above on the list, germany and japan were the two top runners of the proxy nuclear countries, with an asterix stating that they are voluntarily not nuclear, and that they, given the political will, were the only two countries in this analysis who were assumed to be able to be able to get there under 12 month after project start.

Well South Africa should also be able to get there in under 12 month.

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 24):

And I responded to the thread starter that this ain't gonna happen neither hypothetically nor realistically because of a contractual obligation, regardless of whether Germany has the means to build a nuclear weapon or not.

I wouldn't be too sure. I can imagine some scenarios where German nuclear weapons could become a political reasonable option. I just hope we never get to this point.

pelican
 
dc9northwest
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 3:44 pm

Romania closed the research lab in 1998 after 41 years of studies... We may have the knowledge, but not the money.  Silly
 
connies4ever
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:30 pm



Quoting Pelican (Reply 27):
Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 12):
It's not clear whether or not S Africa has retained their fissile inventory.

Well, sources like globalsecurity.orgsay it's still in Pelindaba. South Africa declared it's fissile inventory to the IAEA which confirmed S. Africa had nuclear six nuclear weapons dismantled. The IAEA is still monitoring the fissile inventory of South Africa. So it's still there.

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 12):
There was some chatter a decade or so back to the extent that the fissile material -- or possibly the actual weapons -- were airlifted to Israel.

This is just chatter. http://f40.iaea.org/worldatom/Period...ls/Bulletin/Bull371/baeckmann.html

Thanks for the link ! Very good read. I have to stop relying on my memory and do a little more research.
And yes indeed it was de Klerk's government that took the decision to disarm.
It's reassuring to know that per the IAEA inspectors, the HEU appears to be under good control..
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Arrow
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:43 am



Quoting ScrubbsYWG (Reply 23):
He was at a lecture where Mr. axworthy blatently stated that canada still had nukes on its soil that it essentially controlled. these were 'given' to canada by the americans during the cold war and we haven't given them back and they havent asked for them back.

Very controversial topic. He's talking about the Bomarcs the US talked us into after the cancellation of the Avro Arrow interceptor project. Here's an excerpt from the National Defence website:

"The Boeing CIM-10B Bomarc nuclear-armed surface-to-air interceptor missile equipped 446 and 447 Squadrons in North Bay, Ontario and La Macaza, Quebec respectively for North American air defence from 1961 to 1972. 60-904 was one of the 26 missiles at RCAF Station/CFB North Bay out of a total of 56 in Canadian service. As stated in 1971 White Paper on Defence: "The BOMARC missiles sited in Canada were a relatively important contribution in the days when a full anti-bomber defence existed to defend urban-industrial targets as well as to protect the deterent which consisted largely of the U.S. bomber force. The deployment by the U.S.S.R. of a missile force numbering in the thousands has altered considerably the strategic situation. The BOMARCs have become highly vulnerable to a missile attack since they cannot be dispersed like Aircraft. Moreover, the Canadian BOMARCs are sited to defend the eastern part of North America whereas the preponderance of the U.S. land-based strategic retaliatory forces is located in the mid-west. Since no comprehensive defence of population against missile attack is likely to be available in the foreseeable future, the Government has concluded there is no longer sufficient reason to continue to deploy BOMARCs in Canada, and this system will therefore be retired."

I'm sure those nukes went back. Think about it; Axworthy was a Liberal cabinet minister in the Trudeau government. Do you really think they'd cover that up, given their latent animosity (especially Axworthy) towards the US?

Acquisition of the Bomarcs was a sad day in Canadian history.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
 
Avianca
Posts: 5368
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Tue Jan 22, 2008 2:14 am



Quoting Dc9northwest (Reply 28):
Romania closed the research lab in 1998 after 41 years of studies... We may have the knowledge, but not the money.

dont worry, you are now in the EU...  Wink
Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
 
VonRichtofen
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RE: Potential Atomic Powers?

Tue Jan 22, 2008 4:01 am

According to this article, Canada could easily develop nuclear weapons. In fact Canada played a pretty big role in the US development of nuclear weapons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

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