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Hey, not really the best forum but why the hell not? There are some smart people lurking around here, maybe this will draw some out.

I'm writing a big paper on electoral stability in Latin America. Which basically means (assuming elections decide these things) I'm trying to figure out how often political power changes hands and why. Can it be measured? Analyzed? Predicted? And if so, based on what?


BTW, if anyone knows of any academic papers relating to the topic, please don't hesitate to mention them.


Now let the speculative ranting begin!

Quoting CannibalZ3 (Thread starter): Which basically means (assuming elections decide these things) I'm trying to figure out how often political power changes hands and why. Can it be measured? Analyzed? Predicted? And if so, based on what?

In Costa Rica, it changes every 4 years always. There is re-election for MPs (multiple re-elections possible) and Presidents (only one re-election possible), but it's not consecutive, so for an MP to be re-elected, he'd have to wait at least another 4 years since the end of his previous term, while the President would have to wait at least 8 years since the end of his term to be eligible for re-election.

The only reason for analysis in the case of Costa Rica is why they don't allow consecutive re-election, because I don't recall anything historical that would have lead them to make these limits in the Constitution.