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LHStarAlliance
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Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:58 am

Hi guys !

Well that's the Question ..

I think that will happen in the next 50 years . They're 1.9 Billion People - if the Chinese manage it to get a Productivity rate
half as of an American it will just be a matter of Time .

I'm speaking of Economic Power , lets keep Political and Military Power out of the Discussion .


Constantin
 
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SAS A340
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:15 pm

I was watching a news program about economics a couple of weeks ago and just this came up! they predicted that within 20-40 years China would be the No 1 in terms of economic power in the world......it's very possible. I think it's just a matter of time. If that would be god or bad,that i do not know!  Yeah sure
 
Banco
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:20 pm

Of course they will. So will India. This century is part of the decline of the west and the rise of the east. We need to face facts here. And for Europe and the United States, we need to face up to a reality that we need to be together in the hundred years to come.
 
Rara
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:38 pm

Let's put it like this... if China didn't overtake the US one day, it'd be really sad, because that would mean that our world will forever remain unequal. 1.3 billion people live in China, 0.3 billion people live in the US. That means that the size of China's economy should be more that four times larger than America's, in a fair and equal world that we all hope for. It should be more than ten times larger than Germany's.

Would that be good or bad? In the current way our economies operate, that'd most certainly be deadly for our world; which should give us Western powers something to think about in the first place.
 
sacamojus
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:28 pm

I remember reading a public CIA report in 2002 that said the economy ranks are a follows: China, India, EU, US. It was quite in interesting report as it also reported on the US predicted military strength compared to others as well.
 
AA7295
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:29 pm

I read alot about China. There are major issues such as men largely outnumbering female. Growing obesity rate. Incredibly high pollution rate. Desertification of the Gobi Desert which costs the PRC economy US$45 billion each year. Abuse of natural resources. Sheer amount of state-owned enterprise. Unemployment rate of around 20% Declining Social morals. Mass Corruption. These are just a few. These problems will see the collapse of China.

I could go into specific detail and mention how each issue will contribute, but I think that China in the next 25 years will be safe, but within 50 years? Imagine the USA with 1.3 billion people. Imagine the food consumption (where is China going to import all this food from, especially as the desert grows). When all the natural resources are abused, where is China going to get all the raw materials from to make products competitively? Pollution... With China building 1 new coal power plant each week, where is China going to get the money and medical personnel to help 1.3 billion with pollution related illness?

I think the safe bet is with the west. After all the West are the major consumers, when China become no longer competitive, Western companies are just going to shift outsourcing to the next best place. India? Thailand? Vietnam? Somewhere in Africa? Who Knows...... but China's growth is neither healthy or sustainable.
 
LHStarAlliance
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:38 pm



Quoting Sacamojus (Reply 4):
China, India, EU, US

1)US
2)Japan
3)Germany
4)China
5)UK
6)France


or

1)EU
2)US
3)China

The European Union overtook the US last year .

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 5):
These problems will see the collapse of China.

Yes I agree .

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 5):
I think the safe bet is with the west. After all the West are the major consumers, when China become no longer competitive, Western companies are just going to shift outsourcing to the next best place. India? Thailand? Vietnam? Somewhere in Africa? Who Knows...... but China's growth is neither healthy or sustainable.

I always say : What China is now , Africa will be in 70 years .

As the Chinese want to be every year wealthier and get a standard of living like a European/American , the Working Costs will rise extremely , and the Chinese Growth is based on that . So China has more than one big challenge in future , one of the most important is the lack of Democracy ...
 
mt99
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:38 pm



Quoting AA7295 (Reply 5):
. but China's growth is neither healthy or sustainable.

But the thing is that China knows that. China has been investing heavily overseas to secure their own future "China" (per-se).

When they move into the big time and China begins consuming crap instead of producing crap - they want to have some other area ready to supply their crap cheaply to them.

(PS. I am not saying China manufactures crappy products (Japan used to manufacture crappy products in the 70s no? - look at them now!) - i meant "crap" as in Wal-Mart-type crap products like a spinning lollipops with flashing lights)
 
Banco
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:50 pm



Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 7):
So China has more than one big challenge in future , one of the most important is the lack of Democracy ...

Which is precisely why a lot of the more thoughtful economists view India as the future more than China. The rate of growth is similarly outstanding, but India is a stable democracy where the rule of law operates. Democracies always outperform autocracies or oligarchies over the longer run, and at some point in the future China will go through a further upheaval, because it is inconceivable that the current system can hold sway over a nation where the people become ever more affluent and better educated. Investing in China represents more of a risk than investing in India.

Where we may have a serious problem in the future is that India and China will be real competitors, and they share a border. That's a potential problem.

Unfortunately, here in the west there's a lot of denial about the reality of the situation and the demographics. The far east is where the economic powerhouses of the future lie, and with economic power comes political power. The United States has long passed its moment of peak power, and is in decline. This is just the truth, it's hardly something I take the remotest pleasure in, just the opposite. Exactly the same applies to Europe. The west dominated the world for hundreds of years, but our time is coming to an end.
 
halls120
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:57 pm



Quoting Banco (Reply 8):
Which is precisely why a lot of the more thoughtful economists view India as the future more than China. The rate of growth is similarly outstanding, but India is a stable democracy where the rule of law operates. Democracies always outperform autocracies or oligarchies over the longer run, and at some point in the future China will go through a further upheaval, because it is inconceivable that the current system can hold sway over a nation where the people become ever more affluent and better educated. Investing in China represents more of a risk than investing in India.

Excellent observation. China has huge potential, but their internal problems are significant, and the disparity between their rich and poor borders on the explosive.

Quoting Banco (Reply 8):
The west dominated the world for hundreds of years, but our time is coming to an end.

I think that is a real possibility. It would be nice if the west could come to realize this, and start cooperating more.
 
Andreas
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:03 pm

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 7):
I always say : What China is now , Africa will be in 70 years .

That remains to be seen, I am not too sure about this. Africa is in political turmoil, has been for ages and to follow the path of China it would be mandatory to get its act together. Not even regional economic powerhouses such as South Africa are on a clear path to growth as we can see right now.

And I have to say I can't actually see where such a Get-together-Act should come from. North Africa is muslim, Sub Sahara is...whatever (and a region of interest to China btw), and South Africa and neighbouring countries are still struggling to find their own ways.

Which leads me to believe that Africa will be the one big economic loser in the upcoming re-organisation of the world.

[Edited 2008-03-14 07:17:11]
 
sacamojus
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Fri Mar 14, 2008 4:09 pm



Quoting Sacamojus (Reply 4):
I remember reading a public CIA report in 2002 that said the economy ranks are a follows: China, India, EU, US. It was quite in interesting report as it also reported on the US predicted military strength compared to others as well.

Oops! forgot to mention the report was a prediction for the the next 20 years and beyond not current rankings. Sorry.
 
roadrunner165
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:27 am

The simple answer is no... Communism always fails. Free will trumps all.
-Adam
 
Falcon84
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:34 am



Quoting Roadrunner165 (Reply 12):
The simple answer is no... Communism always fails. Free will trumps all.

This has nothing to do with Communism. It's about pure, raw numbers, and the fact that China will soon have over 2 BILLION people, compared to our 300 million. China will not be a communist nation, I believe, by the 2nd half of this century. You cannot hold down 2 billion people like that. It will collapse, as the USSR did.

But China's sheer size dictates it WILL be the top world power, easily within this century. It does not mean the U.S. will become insignificant. I don't think it will, but it will take a back seat to those nations, like China and India, that dward the U.S. in sheer numbers.
 
TheCol
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:40 am



Quoting AA7295 (Reply 5):
These problems will see the collapse of China.



Quoting Roadrunner165 (Reply 12):

 checkmark 

China is the same predicament as the former USSR was in the 1980's. They are trying to find ways to encorperate capitalist enterprise into a communist regieme. It will work for a while, but they will eventually have no choice but to dump communism all together. Either that, or the Chineese economy will fail completely.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:43 am



Quoting Rara (Reply 3):
our world will forever remain unequal

...um, you're just now coming to that conclusion???
 
scottieprecord
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:07 am



Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 13):
But China's sheer size dictates it WILL be the top world power, easily within this century. It does not mean the U.S. will become insignificant. I don't think it will, but it will take a back seat to those nations, like China and India, that dward the U.S. in sheer numbers.

China and India have always had a higher population than the US.

I think we're going to start seeing regions grouping up economically more and more. It's hard to predict what will happen in the next 50 years, but there's a pretty big possibility of NAFTA evolving into much more than it is. NAU? Hell, let's just throw South America in with it for kicks... EU meets AU. Half a century is a hell of a long time..

Anyone know just how much Chinese money is invested in the US? Seems like they could almost buy us out in the next 50 years. US-China merger?  Wink
 
flanker
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:10 am



Quoting Sacamojus (Reply 4):
re a follows: China, India, EU, US

Just the healthcare portion of the US economy is bigger than the whole chinese economy put together.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:00 am

China should be the #1 Economical power in a few decades,with India rising too.The Advantage of India is the Democratic system in place & the ease of English Language.
regds
MEL
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:56 am



Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 13):
and the fact that China will soon have over 2 BILLION people

I'm sorry Falcon, but you're just pulling numbers out of your ass. This figure is totally erroneous.

The UN predicts that in 2050, India will have a population of 1.593 billion, and China will have a population of 1.392 billion... with India overtaking China in 2030.

Your statement that "China will soon have over 2 billion people" is completely false.

-UH60
 
QFA380
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:18 am

I think as has been said there is no doubt that China will overtake the US one day. Although I believe that India will one day overtake China and it will be the biggest which for me is definately a good thing. Indian tastes so much better than Chinese.

Seriously, India is much more stable (although their cricketers aren't!), they aren't just relying on the manufacturing industry with cheap labour and they have a much better environment. Although I think India has a greater problem with extreme poverty.

Whoever ends up winning I just hope we Aussies can do it the usual way and hitch a ride to near the top! Rejecting India's requests for uranium was a very stupid idea.
 
Falcon84
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:45 am



Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 19):

Fair enough, but the point being that China dwarfs us size-wise, and they're modernizing at a very fast pace. They will be the world power by the middle of this century, at least economically.
 
Rara
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:33 pm



Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 15):

...um, you're just now coming to that conclusion???

Hm? The point is clear, isn't it?

I'm just trying to make people realize what it means if China overtakes the US; that it's not a shortcoming of the US, but rather a natural process that is to be expected one day, seeing that they have, as pointed out in this thread several times, a much larger population.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:59 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 14):
China is the same predicament as the former USSR was in the 1980's. They are trying to find ways to encorperate capitalist enterprise into a communist regieme.

If you characterize China that way, you don't understand the country at all. The Chinese government is still authoritarian in several key areas, but to define their overall state function as 'communist' is valid in name only, and it has been that way for nearly a decade now.

Quoting QFA380 (Reply 20):
Seriously, India is much more stable (although their cricketers aren't!), they aren't just relying on the manufacturing industry with cheap labour and they have a much better environment.

India may be stable long term but they are killing themselves now with unbridled protectionism. Just this week they are near passing further taxes on direct foreign investment.
 
AGM100
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:17 pm

Well their are some unsettling issues with China. An ones that they have yet to tackle and transition though.

1. Workers rights , this will raise the price of labor and it will change their economic base.

2. Prosperity will bring new enlightenment and will change the way the average Chinese person sees the world. This will of course bring along all the problems with a free upward moving society. How will the Chinese government deal with all the problems of a population struggling for more freedoms and fairness in business and opportunities. If the government tries to contain this by restriction it will be bad for the Chinese.

3. Human rights issues will eventually become a colliding point for the communist government. How they handle this will be critical.

All in all I would say that the Chinese will overcome these problems eventually. And I do believe that they are poised to move into the super power top slot.

But will we watch Chinese Movies ? I mean are they going to have a Hollywood , a Chinese Clint Eastwood , a Disneyland ? Will the new super power bring all the inventions and technologies that the west has been able to use its wealth to produce?

Simple question ... Will the Chinese be a cool superpower ?
 
TheCol
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:47 pm



Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 23):
If you characterize China that way, you don't understand the country at all. The Chinese government is still authoritarian in several key areas, but to define their overall state function as 'communist' is valid in name only, and it has been that way for nearly a decade now.

That was pretty much what I stated. However, the communist party still clings to some of it's core fundamentals. Communist propaganda is still preached in schools and universities on a daily basis. They also still use 50 year old propaganda strategies to recruit university students for communist party service.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sun Mar 16, 2008 7:11 am



Quoting QFA380 (Reply 20):
Rejecting India's requests for uranium was a very stupid idea.

I wonder what was the logic there.
regds
MEL
 
BA
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sun Mar 16, 2008 7:38 am



Quoting AGM100 (Reply 24):
a Disneyland ?

If you include the Hong Kong SAR, they've already got it:

http://www.hongkongdisneyland.com
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Will China Overtake The USA One Day?

Sun Mar 16, 2008 8:30 am



Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 13):
This has nothing to do with Communism. It's about pure, raw numbers, and the fact that China will soon have over 2 BILLION people, compared to our 300 million. China will not be a communist nation, I believe, by the 2nd half of this century. You cannot hold down 2 billion people like that. It will collapse, as the USSR did.

But China's sheer size dictates it WILL be the top world power, easily within this century. It does not mean the U.S. will become insignificant. I don't think it will, but it will take a back seat to those nations, like China and India, that dward the U.S. in sheer numbers.

Incorrect. China has 1.3bn people and has a large population imbalance... In most countries around the world 51 out of 100 people are female... in China it is more like 40 out of 100... in other words it is close to 2 men for every woman... so in 10-20 years time there will be all sorts of strife in China with 10s of millions of Chinese men that are single with no hope of ever getting married or having kids. Whilst China is now reviewing its 1 child policy, it will be too late for 2 generations.Even if China were to allow families to have 1,2, or 3 kids from now, the population is unlikely to rise over 1.5 billion in this century. Coupled with the horrendous levels of pollution in China and the eventually lack of food and clean water, China will really struggle in future. The US on the other hand already has over 300million people and has a stable slight growth rate from Americans. The population however is growing more rapidly due to large amounts of immigration... (both legal and illegal). Many of these immigrants are having more than the 2.3 children per family that is needed for stable population numbers. Millions of families from Mexico and other Central American countries are having 3+ children per family, as well as immigrants from India, Asia, Africa etc. Thus the population of the USA is growing by millions every year. If nothing happens that would slow this growth rate then America would be 350-400 million people in 50 years... thats a gap of 900-950 million between China and the USA, not 1,700 million as you suggest.

The one thing that China does have going for it is that because it has been operating under such large trade surpluses, has been investing money in foreign companies and has blocked a lot of foreign ownership of Chinese companies etc it will have significant economic clout and will receive a lot of income in the form of dividends etc from foreign countries in which is has invested.

India on the other hand is likely to reach 1.5billion+ and will possibly be a bigger economy than China although that might take some time as China has invested much more on infrastructure etc than India has.

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