Visible Signs Of The Economic Slump

prosa · Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:18 pm

This was an interesting thread that came up on a different site, attracted some informative replies, but unfortunately devolved into a screed on gun control. So I'll try it here. Leaving statistics aside, have you noticed any visible signs in the area where you live and/or work that economic conditions may be deteriorating? Some of the things I have in mind include:

- more "for sale" signs on houses
- more official foreclosure notices
- an increase in vacant storefronts
- a decline in construction
- fewer "help wanted" signs at the shopping mall
- lighter traffic during rush hour

You probably can think of others.

Cadet57 · Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:39 pm

Quoting PROSA (Thread starter):
You probably can think of others.

Used to work about 25 hours a week at one of my p/t jobs, this past week, 0 hours, week before, 9. Glad I have a couple others to fall back on...

bristolflyer · Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:47 pm

Quoting PROSA (Thread starter):
- more "for sale" signs on houses
- more official foreclosure notices
- an increase in vacant storefronts
- a decline in construction

All of those. Especially a decline in construction - I am in construction and things are very slow. And I'm wary about not getting paid when I do pick up work.

There are many houses for sale in my neighborhood (near downtown Phoenix) despite it being a desirable place to live. A lot of lawns are untended and swimming pools turn green and attract mosquitos pretty quickly as well. Property crime seems to be increasing as well.

I have noticed a lot of 'toys' for sale on Craigslist - boats, bikes etc. A lot of people are reducing their unnecessary costs. I have a friend who is trying to sell his boat but the local dealership for his brand is giving big discounts off new models so selling a used boat is tough.

I heard from a friend who works in a bank that a customer went in and tried to withdraw his savings - almost $700k - as he was scared about the financial crisis. He was persuaded to leave the money in there, but if a lot of people do this we could be in a world of hurt. Crime seems to be on the up, so where would you keep the cash?
I'm being much more careful about my purchases, making sure I am not wasting food etc and am getting the best prices for food in the first place - supermarket's own brand is just as good as the named brand stuff. And clothes shopping is off indefinitely. I guess I'm not helping the economic crisis by being frugal, but it's every man for himself.

DocLightning · Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:55 pm

Last night on TV, Wendy (you know, the chick with the hamburgers) popped out of a red circle in the middle of a TV screen, whipped out a dollar bill, and stretched it.

We're officially in a recession.

scrubbsywg · Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:59 pm

nope. in fact, i just got a 12.5% raise this past week after my annual review.

Flighty · Sun Oct 12, 2008 6:11 pm

Quoting BristolFlyer (Reply 2):
Crime seems to be on the up, so where would you keep the cash?

It's just bad logic, anyway.

My friend recently asked me, what if the bank shuts down and he can't withdraw his down payment for his new house he is buying.

I replied, well why does it matter, you won't be able to use that money anyway. The bankers won't show up. You won't be able to put gas in your car. The grocery store will be closed so soon, you will be trying to kill people fighting over food. We will be shivering when the electricity and gas are cut off, for good.

Without a banking system, our civilization would collapse in a matter of hours. In under a week we'd be living in modern day Somalia. The government would never, ever EVER EVER let that even close to happen.

Did it nearly happen in the last month? NO. The banking system could only collapse if our government were eliminated and Cheyenne Mountain, and underground banking bunkers were all destroyed. This won't happen so we are cool. The theory that our cash/checking accounts are vulnerable is an incorrect and misguided theory.

petertenthije · Sun Oct 12, 2008 6:21 pm

Other then wall-to-wall coverage on the television, I have yet to notice something. Fingers crossed it will stay that way.

rjpieces · Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:14 pm

I've noticed smaller crowds in restaurants on weekend nights...

OA260 · Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:29 pm

Friends loosing their jobs is enough for me !!

prosa · Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:14 pm

I haven't notice any big increase in "For Sale" signs in my area (Suffolk County, NY), however that might just mean that people who otherwise would try to sell their houses are keeping them off the market until prices increase.

jetblueguy22 · Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:18 pm

I went to the Apple store in the mall today and as usual there were tons of shoppers. The only problem. I usually have to wait in line for like 10 min. Today I waited 1 min. There are still many shoppers just not as many purchasers.

Quoting PROSA (Thread starter):
more official foreclosure notices

I used to see maybe 1 every 6 months. Last week I think I saw 4. 2 of them right next to each other!

Quoting PROSA (Thread starter):
lighter traffic during rush hour

I haven't noticed this much. But then again I live in the traffic capitol of New England. For sure less trucks though.
Blue

jfktowerfan · Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:15 am

I went to Mohegan Sun today and usually a holiday weekend is wall to wall people, today it looked like a weekday morning.

Corey

Cadet57 · Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:16 am

Quoting JFKTOWERFAN (Reply 11):
I went to Mohegan Sun today and usually a holiday weekend is wall to wall people, today it looked like a weekday morning.

That's saying something. I recall reading somewhere that Ma Lottery sales are up, people hoping for a mircale I guess.

11Bravo · Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:51 am

Until a month or so ago I regularly received 10+ credit card offers in the mail every week. The last two weeks, I've had maybe 3 or 4.

Cadet57 · Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:59 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 13):
Until a month or so ago I regularly received 10+ credit card offers in the mail every week. The last two weeks, I've had maybe 3 or 4.

The other day I got a offer in my amtrak guest rewards account for a chase mastercard with a 16,000 point bonus, the offer was very tempting so I applied and was going to transfer a balance from my current cc ($90.00) to this one. Gone I guess are the days of the 30 second approval. Now I was told it will take 15-30 DAYS before I get an answer.

prosa · Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:17 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 13):
Until a month or so ago I regularly received 10+ credit card offers in the mail every week. The last two weeks, I've had maybe 3 or 4.

Yeah, the same thing's happened to me too, I didn't realize it until I read your post.

bohica · Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:23 am

I went to Sam's Club today(Sunday). I found a parking space near the front door without trying. Inside there were not too many people. At the checkout, I found an open lane and I didn't have to wait.

At gas stations, the ones with the lowest prices has all the cars at it regardless of the brand. The more expensive ones are empty.

Cadet57 · Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:26 am

Quoting Bohica (Reply 16):
At gas stations, the ones with the lowest prices has all the cars at it regardless of the brand. The more expensive ones are empty.

I think you'll find that anywhere, anytime. Wink

On that note, every station in town is $2.90 or under. The lone Exxon station in town is still charging $3.10 I really wonder how that place stays in bussiness, they're always the most expensive in town.

andaman · Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:34 am

Quoting Petertenthije (Reply 6):
Other then wall-to-wall coverage on the television, I have yet to notice something. Fingers crossed it will stay that way.

Same in Finland, not many visible signs yet, except the problems with small Icelandic banks.
The Finnish home markets are doing quite ok still, the biggest threat is that the recession hits to the vital export markets and it seems thats happening.

Mike89406 · Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:45 am

One of the large Chevrolet dealerships closed doors, I heard the casino business in Reno is rough and the Grand Sierra Sierra resort casino is changing ownership due to financial difficulties.
http://www.lahontanvalleynews.com/ar...omy%20forces%20Jetway%20to%20close

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...008/10/04/financial/f150142D21.DTL

af773atmsp · Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:46 am

In my hometown Bloomington I'm still seeing construction projects and new building proposals. The Mall of America Phase 2 expansion plan doesn't look like it will be happening for awhile. There are always a lot of cars at the Costco gas pumps. Thats all I'm seeing right now and I hope it doesn't get worse.

Derico · Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:48 am

None.

As far as I have been told, shopping malls are full & Mother's day sales are looking strong all over the country. This was a long weekend in Argentina and the bureaus of tourism of cities like Mendoza, Mar del Plata, Salta, Bariloche, etc reported virtual full occupancy. The tolls to Buenos Aires expressways have all time highs in traffic and car sales in September were a record 54,000 vehicles and 2008 is expected to be a record year. Construction has slowed down from last year but that was already going on before this international crisis and comes from very high levels. No financial institution is in trouble.

The problems here now seem 'small' compared to the rest of the world: inflation and still relatively low salaries. And of course the long term historic problems of an emerging market with inequality and still significant pockets of severe poverty, etc.

roadrunner165 · Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:26 am

No real signs here in Alaska as far as I can tell. Our economy is doing well.

Derico · Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:12 am

Funny, I'm reading in La Nacion that foreign bookings by Europeans and North Americans have dropped in the last month, and last two weeks many cancelations by Brazilians as the real has dropped 16% in value against the argentine peso. Not all hotels and cities are reporting this situation, but many are.

So in that sense the tourism industry might be the first to get hit by the hard times overseas.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?...ta_id=1058762&pid=5208885&toi=6263

BO__einG · Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:35 am

There have been drops in housing construction in recent months. Down bigtime from last year.
Two condo tower projects have been halted and now its an eyesore of an empty pit with concrete poking out.
I found a news article talking about foreclosures in California. This unrelates to me but I guess an idea of how horrific it is to be experiencing this kind of rock-bottom time in life.
I feel for those people who cannot pay for their homes. Thats gotta be pretty scary multiplied by millions of people and there is a huge loss of money.

http://corgiguy.gohds.net/?ch=1.0.143.0.SOCAL:FORECLOSURE-ALLEY

ltbewr · Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:12 pm

Homes for sale for months instead of days in the peak days.

More vacent stores in regional and strip malls and staying vacant for extended periods of time.

A bank you do business with has gone bust or now part of another (with me WaMu -->JPM Chase).

Substantually fewer credit card offers.

Getting a notice that your the credit limit on a credit card has been reduced (just got a recent notice, mainly as rarely have more than $ 200 charged on it, maybe 500 once and pay off at the end of the month).

Tighter inventories/stock at stores, cutting back times open.

"Dollar" stores moving away from everything at a $1, perhaps moving to things under $5.

Changes in the 'day worker' market, with overall fewer workers seeking work, those that do hanging by the Home Depot all day without a job that day, being more agressive in their job seeking.

Classified ad sections in newspapers very skimpy as to job listings and more ads of 'toys' for sale.

More use of temp employees for peak times/needs at your workplace.

mwhcvt · Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:56 pm

I think that I'm lucky in that i've just started work after a period of over a year looking for a job, However I work in the credit card industry, so maybe not the best sector in the world to be in as everyone is tightening there belts, not that we don't have plenty of appicants that still want cards and increased credit facilities.

I just hope the my position remains open into the future, though on a plus note my company still has over 7 years to run on the current contract so things should remain solid in the near term.

STT757 · Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:57 pm

Lots of houses on the market, for months.

Lots of closed stores, restaurants especially in strip malls

Most construction except for highway/road construction has seemingly come to a halt, many housing developments under construction have had frames up for months with no additional work.

nonrevman · Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:49 am

I collect aluminum cans from time to time. Usually, they are very easy to find. However, I have noticed others doing the same thing. It looks like some competition has arrived on the scene.

RJdxer · Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:45 am

Quoting Mike89406 (Reply 19):
I heard the casino business in Reno is rough

That's because CO pulled out of the market. wink

I guess Houston is kind of immune due to the energy business.

They are still building new homes although the work has slowed, more due to the hurricane and building supplies would be my guess.

Still building strip centers although they could stop that any day they wish.

Ever since gas went way up I've noticed traffic is down and has not come back but I won't complain about that.

Still plenty of "now hiring" signs out. Some for fast food, some for machinists so it runs the spectrum.

STT757 · Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:08 am

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 29):
I guess Houston is kind of immune due to the energy business.

Yup, piece from Reuters today;

Oil dollars help Houston dodge U.S. economic woes

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...sNews/idINN2938941820081014?rpc=44

UN_B732 · Sun Oct 19, 2008 12:05 pm

When I was last in the States I noticed Abercrombie, Banana Republic, and even Hollister were emptier than usual; especially for a weekend.

-a

egmcman · Sun Oct 19, 2008 12:32 pm

There seems to be some discounting in prices on certain items in shops.

One shop advertising it's having a closing down sale

The number of vacant shops available in one shopping centre

MadameConcorde · Sun Oct 19, 2008 12:36 pm

I was just told about Cunard deeply discounting cruises on the Queen Mary 2 and Queen Victoria in the times to come. It is rather rare that these luxury cruise ships offer sharp discounts.

ltbewr · Sun Oct 19, 2008 12:46 pm

When companies like Linens & Things (national chain) and Mervyn's (like Kohl's, mainly in California) go out of business & hold liquidation sales.

When banks put out ads telling you they didn't make any high risk or 'NINJA' mortgages or loans and are strong by FDIC standards.

When you see people at the grocery checkout have to decide not to buy certain items as the total exceeds the money they have on them.

When you seem to see more purchases of house brands vs. name brands of products.

dtwclipper · Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:38 am

An e-mail from the Michigan Opera Theatre/Detroit Opera House to the volunteer board:

"As we have previously discussed, this is going to be a very challenging year for MOT. In response to the current economic situation and its impact on ticket sales and contributions, MOT has announced several actions which include staff position eliminations and reductions as well as the cancellation of one of the Spring Productions (I Pagliacci). These moves are unprecedented in scale for the company but are the steps deemed necessary to reduce operating expenses and ensure fiscal stability for the future."

Not a good sign.....

Aaron747 · Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:01 am

Luxury stores in urban Japan are virtually empty - households at all levels are really holding on to their cash whereas before housewives would routinely treat themselves to something new from Dior or Vuitton every new season. There was a precipitous drop in the summer travel season due to high fuel surcharges of $500 or more from both JAL and ANA. People are driving less and the trains are more crowded than usual. Most apparent change: it's actually possible to get a walk-up movie ticket on a Saturday or Sunday night rather than booking seats online days before. People just aren't willing to cough up $20 to see a movie.

luv2fly · Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:04 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 33):

I was just told about Cunard deeply discounting cruises on the Queen Mary 2 and Queen Victoria in the times to come. It is rather rare that these luxury cruise ships offer sharp discounts.

Having worked in the cruise industry it is hardly "rare" What might be different is they have to advertise the sale fares though they are ALWAYS out there.

WESTERN737800 · Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:14 am

When small air freight companies are parking more airplanes and fixing some so they can go to salvage yards.

iowaman · Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:32 am

Haven't seen too much here in rural Iowa. Grain prices were up nearly double this summer since last year, although retreated back down to only about 1/3 to 1/2 as much as of right now. New ethanol plants popping up all over creating jobs, which is good for the local economy. Gas dropping substantially, which many rural Iowans use a lot of due to long commutes, as well as the farmers using 100's of gallons of diesel to fill tractors and combines.

Cactus739 · Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:01 am

I've noticed less traffic inear malls... Saturday I went to the Apple store and got a good parking spot without driving around in circles.

I've noticed fewer people in restaraunts mostly, but noticed also that the lines at the grocery store seem shorter too.

Also, sales in the store that I manage are off about 20% from last year. Customer counts are actually only down about 5-10% depending on the week, but they're spending less and less as time goes by.

Aaron747 · Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:03 am

Surprised nobody has mentioned some stuff out of FLYING magazine lately either - some longtime columnists have pared back their flying considerably, most notably a professor of cardiac surgery, who is no longer able to afford the maintenance and operating costs of his Piper Cheyenne. Bad times for GA to be sure.

Mir · Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:13 am

My university has apparently stopped giving grants to non-essential causes, including student organizations. My club may not be able to make it to our planned conference this year, which is a shame as we have several graduating seniors who wouldn't get the chance to do anything in their final year.

-Mir

57AZ · Sat Oct 25, 2008 8:01 am

At work, the numbers of Writs of Garnishment filed monthly has doubled since the start of the year. In January, we issued something like 200 Writs for the whole month. By September, the number issued was more than 400. I've been issuing something like 20 Writs a day on some days. What the Writ does is order the garnishee's employer to garnish their wages. We're also seeing a larger number of Applications for Deferral or Waiver of Court Filing Fees being submitted.

On the other hand, life goes on. The street railway that I am involved with is going ahead with our planned purchase of a foreign tram and the solicitation of donations from a number of local sources to fund the $150,000 price tag. Current forecast is that despite the downturn, we'll be able to get the funding quickly-the potential donors all have a vested interest in seeing the street railway extend service and understand that in the long term, that capital acquisition is necessary.

F9Animal · Sat Oct 25, 2008 9:03 am

Quoting ScrubbsYWG (Reply 4):
nope. in fact, i just got a 12.5% raise this past week after my annual review.

You dirty dog.... Are they hiring? LOL!

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 25):
A bank you do business with has gone bust or now part of another (with me WaMu -->JPM Chase).

I have talked to a few bank robbery suspects in jail, and they said that bank robberies are down due to the crisis. One guy said he tried to rob a bank, but after being beaten to the ground by the customers, did he learn that it was a bank that was bankrupt. <<---- TRYING TO LIGHTEN UP THE MOOD!!! Smile

Quoting Oa260 (Reply 8):
Friends loosing their jobs is enough for me !!

No kidding. I get the Sunday paper every Sunday, and ALWAYS look at the job opportunities to just see who is hiring, and who is paying what. 6 months ago, there would be about 6-8 full pages of jobs. Last Sunday, the there was only 2 pages!!!! My jaw hit the floor. Very friggin scary folks.

Quoting PROSA (Reply 9):
I haven't notice any big increase in "For Sale" signs in my area (Suffolk County, NY), however that might just mean that people who otherwise would try to sell their houses are keeping them off the market until prices increase.

We are currently looking to buy a house. I started looking at foreclosures, as right now is the prime time to get a good deal. My Realtor sent me some listings. It took me 3 hours to go through them. Not just that, but it was only for 3 areas I requested the information from. Again, my jaw was on the ground. I actually had a knot in my stomach looking at all of these unfortunate people in these situations. I think recession is a light word to use right now. I think we might be heading for a depression. I am depressed enough just seeing what is going on around our world.

57AZ · Sun Oct 26, 2008 8:28 pm

Sad thing is that this is only the first part of the decline. City of Tucson is doing drastic belt tightening. Retiring city employees are not being replaced and the inner city circulating bus system that brings commuters in from satellite parking lots around the city center is being discontinued in its entirety. At the state level, repairs to facilities at all state universities (University of Arizona, Arizona State University and Northern Arizona University) will not be funded this next fiscal year.

Spoke with my folks-they are very conservative with their investments. Their holdings have lost 25% so far, but they believe that it won't fall much more than than. Still, they're cutting expenses for the time being. Looks like it may be a couple of years before things pick up again.

Flighty · Sun Oct 26, 2008 9:12 pm

I see signs of intelligent decisions being made that probably already should have been made a long time ago. Scrutiny of securities ratings firms like Moody's and S&P. Reduction of wasteful public spending. Honest calculations of retirements and pensions. Thrift. It's a good thing time and again.

Our country (USA / Canada) is so incredibly rich that we should be able to tolerate a 1% decline in our production while still living in complete comfort. If it's causing us problems, it is because we were too risky in our behaviors.

I have lost a ton of money in the liquidity-starved stock market. But it will come back. Our world is still growing economically. Therefore the valuations of the stock markets (or asset markets overall) will remain strong. In 2020 our world will be so wealthy it will put 2008 to shame. Yet, today, we are soooooooooo rich that for us to complain "it is raining," is ignorance of the true facts of history. Sure, we do not have infinite wealth. But we are still the richest society ever. We have many problems but almost NONE of them are related to a lack of money. We do not have "money problems." We have decision and psychology problems.

But I am doing fine, because I don't spend half of what I have. Anybody can make the same choice, but they usually try to spend all their money, and borrow more. Good for them but quit whining when you have bills. Get another job, stop your cable TV subscription, get real, and quit whinin'. There is money to be made out there. And it's never been easier to live cheap. Food, clothing and gas are all pretty cheap right now. So are computers and digital cameras. Everything you need for a.net Smile

Houses are also cheap. So it is a good time to buy one. Or an extra one.

STT757 · Thu Oct 30, 2008 10:36 pm

I took my Grand Cherokee to the dealership for an oil change today, it was a totally different place than it was just last May. They let off most of their service managers, there are 4-5 desks for service managers which were manned last time I was there. Today I noticed the desks are empty, even in the cashiers desk there was only one person there. The place was looking down, no one in the show room.

WarRI1 · Fri Oct 31, 2008 1:11 am

Just announced today, gambling revenue off in my state. Gambling revenues now look to fall by 11.1 millon below estimates in R.I.

OA260 · Fri Oct 31, 2008 2:48 am

More doom and gloom ::

American Express to cut 7,000 jobs

on THU, 30 OCT 2008 18:11:25
American Express said today it will cut 7,000 jobs, slash expenses and scale back investments to save $1.8 billion next year, in its biggest restructuring since 2001 as it struggles with bad loans and surging funding costs.

http://news.eircom.net/breakingnews/general/14148209/

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net