I hope you're wrong, but I'm afraid you're right.
|Quoting DXing (Reply 9):|
I think you've got the tiger by the tail there. Once energy prices went through the roof everything else was going to follow.
So if we follow that logic, will we see a recovery in the next month or two, now that energy prices have tumbled? I think the problems are much deeper than energy...the high gas prices were salt in the wound.
|Quoting DXing (Reply 11):|
The credit market will correct itself and the situation will head back to balance. A few years from now we will once again have a growing economy and look back at this time as a bad time but ultimately bearable. The worst thing they could do is introduce a whole bunch of new restrictive regulations. That will only slow the recovery.
Generally speaking, yes...you're right. I agree with another poster that it will take longer than 12-15 months to get there, though. We're experiencing a bad hangover from "drinking" too much credit these past several years. The government, corporations, and individuals all borrowed way beyond their means, and the "de-leveraging" process will take a while to settle itself out. Assuming everyone has learned their lesson, which I doubt will ever happen, it will take even longer before we regain some lost confidence. It took a long time for the market to recover it's pre-1929 crash...wasn't until 1957 I think. Our problems are more fundamental now...bigger issues that have to be solved (like how much regulation, healthcare funding, Medicare, industry shakeouts, etc.) before another strong economy can blossom.