It's Official: U.S. In A Recession

flynavy · Mon Dec 01, 2008 8:42 pm

More at: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27999557/

Quote:
WASHINGTON - The economy fell into recession late last year, according to a panel of economists that is responsible for determining the dates of business cycles.

Monday's declaration by the panel of the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms what many private economists, lawmakers and members of the general public already have assumed and puts an official date on it: A U.S. recession began in December 2007.

Big surprise here, eh? And to think, we had a Presidential candidate not three months ago claiming that the fundamentals of our economy were strong on the campaign trail...

Markets taking another beating today. Glad I sold off a few earlier this morning...

[Edited 2008-12-01 12:43:12]

prosa · Mon Dec 01, 2008 8:45 pm

It didn't seem as if the country was in a recession one year ago. That actually isn't surprising, because unemployment - the most obvious indicator of a recession - often begins rising only after the recession's been in existence for a while.

QXatFAT · Mon Dec 01, 2008 8:54 pm

Quoting PROSA (Reply 1):
often begins rising only after the recession's been in existence for a while

Well maybe we are feeling the offical date of December 2007 right now. I agree with you that you feel it later but if they are targeting December 2007 as the time of starting, it for sure would mean we are feeling it today.

NIKV69 · Mon Dec 01, 2008 8:58 pm

Quoting Flynavy (Thread starter):
Markets taking another beating today. Glad I sold off a few earlier this morning...

Why? Wouldn't it make sense to hold on for awhile? The market will be doing this for another year at least. Why sell now? Unless you probably think everything is going to collapse like the media would have you believe. Chris we can do without the doom and gloom. We will be fine.

flynavy · Mon Dec 01, 2008 9:00 pm

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 3):
Why? Wouldn't it make sense to hold on for awhile? The market will be doing this for another year at least. Why sell now? Unless you probably think everything is going to collapse like the media would have you believe. Chris we can do without the doom and gloom. We will be fine.

I said "...a few," Nick. Interested in my portfolio? Wink

casinterest · Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:01 pm

I am honestly worried a bit about this recession.

The US has such low Fed rates already, and the economy is just taking a beating from the Credit Crisis, oil, and now layoffs.

The recent bailouts done by the treasury and Fed, only gives more money to banks to lend. The majority of Americans are already overextended on credit. Who is going to borrow money to buy houses that are loosing value, who is going to take a Heloc out on a depreciating value of a home? Who is going to buy a car when jobs are being lost?

Companies are trying to layoff people and replace them with lower priced workers in other countries. However now so many countries are offshoring, that there are not enough jobs being created in the US. This is going to be a long and painful economic crisis.

NIKV69 · Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:02 pm

Quoting Flynavy (Reply 4):
I said "...a few

I know I read your post. I can't fathom what would be higher now than what it could be in a year unless your day trading. crazy

STT757 · Tue Dec 02, 2008 12:33 am

I think the oil spike was the trigger, higher costs of fuel, food, heating bills etc coupled with layoffs associated with the oil spike triggered a wave of defaults on mortgages. Banks started to get nervous and tighten the credit available to folks, ARM mortgages start readjusting and it just kept adding fuel to the fire.

Unfortunately from what I've read, experienced etc.. it looks to me as if we are just in the beginning stages of a longer and deeper downturn than we have been accustomed with, from what I've read the average recession has been 12 - 15 months. I think we should not expect a sustained turn around for at least the next 3 - 5 years, that's how long I think it will take for the housing crisis to be resolved. Meaning the mortgage mess sorted out and dealt with as well as for home prices to recover some of their losses.

luckyone · Tue Dec 02, 2008 2:00 am

Quoting Flynavy (Thread starter):
Big surprise here, eh?

Knock me over with a feather.

dxing · Tue Dec 02, 2008 2:10 am

Quoting CasInterest (Reply 5):
The recent bailouts done by the treasury and Fed, only gives more money to banks to lend.

Not really. They have to cover the bad debt they've aquired. You'll soon see that if you pay off a credit card, or pay it down, and your credit is poor or just average, hell even if it's in the low good range, the credit card company will more than likely reduce your available credit. If you are a poor rating more than likely they will reduce it to the bare minimum even if you have not paid it down.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 7):
I think the oil spike was the trigger, higher costs of fuel, food, heating bills etc coupled with layoffs associated with the oil spike triggered a wave of defaults on mortgages

I think you've got the tiger by the tail there. Once energy prices went through the roof everything else was going to follow.

DocLightning · Tue Dec 02, 2008 2:36 am

Quoting Flynavy (Thread starter):

Big surprise here, eh? And to think, we had a Presidential candidate not three months ago claiming that the fundamentals of our economy were strong on the campaign trail...

We had a PRESIDENT making the same claim.

I mean, it reminds me of propaganda ministers in fascist governments claiming that there is no problem when there is an obvious and huge one.

dxing · Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:10 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 10):
Big surprise here, eh? And to think, we had a Presidential candidate not three months ago claiming that the fundamentals of our economy were strong on the campaign trail...

We had a PRESIDENT making the same claim.

The fundementals are strong. Every free market economy experiences cycles. To think that some how government regulation can keep that from happening is ignoring reality. If you can't accept there will be bad times as well as good then you won't be a very happy person. The credit market will correct itself and the situation will head back to balance. A few years from now we will once again have a growing economy and look back at this time as a bad time but ultimately bearable. The worst thing they could do is introduce a whole bunch of new restrictive regulations. That will only slow the recovery.

stasisLAX · Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:15 am

But remember that the Republicans and the Bush Administration claimed "fundamentals of the economy are strong" and that we're only suffering from "a mental recession" over the summer? Guess that was completely wrong since the National Bureau of Economic Research says we've been in a recession for a year now. irked

flynavy · Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:19 am

Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 13):

Yeah, we're just a nation of whiners. Big grin

Falcon84 · Tue Dec 02, 2008 4:34 am

Quoting DXing (Reply 9):
They have to cover the bad debt they've aquired.

And pay out bonuses, and treat clients and salesmen to big get-togethers at posh resorts......

Quoting Flynavy (Reply 14):
Yeah, we're just a nation of whiners.

Hey, is your name really Phil Gramm?

N174UA · Tue Dec 02, 2008 5:39 am

Quoting CasInterest (Reply 5):
This is going to be a long and painful economic crisis.

I hope you're wrong, but I'm afraid you're right.

Quoting DXing (Reply 9):

I think you've got the tiger by the tail there. Once energy prices went through the roof everything else was going to follow.

So if we follow that logic, will we see a recovery in the next month or two, now that energy prices have tumbled? I think the problems are much deeper than energy...the high gas prices were salt in the wound.

Quoting DXing (Reply 11):
The credit market will correct itself and the situation will head back to balance. A few years from now we will once again have a growing economy and look back at this time as a bad time but ultimately bearable. The worst thing they could do is introduce a whole bunch of new restrictive regulations. That will only slow the recovery.

Generally speaking, yes...you're right. I agree with another poster that it will take longer than 12-15 months to get there, though. We're experiencing a bad hangover from "drinking" too much credit these past several years. The government, corporations, and individuals all borrowed way beyond their means, and the "de-leveraging" process will take a while to settle itself out. Assuming everyone has learned their lesson, which I doubt will ever happen, it will take even longer before we regain some lost confidence. It took a long time for the market to recover it's pre-1929 crash...wasn't until 1957 I think. Our problems are more fundamental now...bigger issues that have to be solved (like how much regulation, healthcare funding, Medicare, industry shakeouts, etc.) before another strong economy can blossom.

dxing · Tue Dec 02, 2008 6:30 pm

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 14):
And pay out bonuses, and treat clients and salesmen to big get-togethers at posh resorts......

While I agree that some people remain stupid, if you actually looked at who paid for those posh resorts, it wasn't the company those CEO's work for. Still suffering from class envy eh Falcon?

Quoting N174UA (Reply 15):
So if we follow that logic, will we see a recovery in the next month or two, now that energy prices have tumbled?

If the stock market has truly bottomed out then absent some other earthquake, such as a major terrorist attack, things will start to look better by Q3 of next year. Not back to the way it was, I hope Americans have learned about credit binges, but better for the long haul.

Quoting N174UA (Reply 15):
It took a long time for the market to recover it's pre-1929 crash...wasn't until 1957 I think.

Yep, if you discount the two small events that occured between 29 and 57.

AGM100 · Tue Dec 02, 2008 7:08 pm

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 14):
Hey, is your name really Phil Gramm?

We have become a nation of whiners. Liberals always need someone to blame for there problems . Well ,me and employees are doing just fine ... we planned ahead and diversified . We didnt sit back and wait for governemnt , we moved things into other areas to take advantage of the upside to the down turn. There is always a upside to a down turn if you play it right. That is what americans do ... we survive and fight not whine and wait. And we certainly dont blame rich people .... our customers.

The best thing we can do for PE Obama is to help him out by not whining ... get out there and do more to help the economy . We are the key to his successful presidency ..even though few will say it.

PPVRA · Tue Dec 02, 2008 7:22 pm

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 3):
Unless you probably think everything is going to collapse like the media would have you believe. Chris we can do without the doom and gloom. We will be fine.

Or, if not that severe, which is questionable, it could be a long one like Japan's:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSg...8/4C5s_pwmW0Y/s1600-h/Nomura-1.png

Posting graph above didn't work. Link for source:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...sing-update-how-far-to-bottom.html

[Edited 2008-12-02 11:53:51]

DocLightning · Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:27 pm

Quoting DXing (Reply 11):

The fundementals are strong. Every free market economy experiences cycles.

The last "cycle" like this was in 1929.

flexo · Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:59 pm

Well, we're headed for a zero interest world, after which the central banks have no further options. Currently they are stabilizing the market some by lowering rates but that is soon going to be over with.
Tomorrow the ECB will probably lower by 75 points following in the Fed's wake.

Japan showed how hard it is to even do anything once you've reached zero interest. So really I think we are in for a stronger recession than many want to make us believe.

Falcon84 · Wed Dec 03, 2008 10:01 pm

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 17):
We have become a nation of whiners. Liberals always need someone to blame for there problems

That mindset really helped the GOP in the last election, didn't it? Care to put out an apology to about 67 million voters? Yeah sure

Quoting DXing (Reply 16):
Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 14):
And pay out bonuses, and treat clients and salesmen to big get-togethers at posh resorts......

While I agree that some people remain stupid, if you actually looked at who paid for those posh resorts, it wasn't the company those CEO's work for. Still suffering from class envy eh Falcon?

This has nothing to do with "class envy", and everything to do with "corporate stupidity", DXing. Like those auto CEO's asking for a bailout after flying in private jets to D.C. It's just stupidity, not a class thng.

DfwRevolution · Wed Dec 03, 2008 11:36 pm

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 21):
That mindset really helped the GOP in the last election, didn't it? Care to put out an apology to about 67 million voters? Yeah sure

The fact that Phil Gramm was caught on the record being politically incorrect and tactless doesn't mean he was wrong duck

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 21):
This has nothing to do with "class envy", and everything to do with "corporate stupidity", DXing. Like those auto CEO's asking for a bailout after flying in private jets to D.C. It's just stupidity, not a class thng.

You're right about stupidity Falcon, but you're accusing the wrong parties. Private jets are a completely legitimate tool of business. Let's say they had taken commercial flights. In addition to wasting the execs time, the questionable on-time performance of U.S. airlines probably means they would have wasted Congress' time, too.

The media jumped on an opportunity to paint the auto execs as fat cats who are disjointed from reality, and the stupid public (including yourself?) bought it hook, line, and sinker.

I think Mike Boyd has said it better than anyone: Yeah sure

http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

dxing · Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:36 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 19):
The last "cycle" like this was in 1929.

Care to show me even one single soup line or Hooverville?

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 21):
This has nothing to do with "class envy",

Sure it does. You suffer from it mightily. Have ever since before I joined this site. It just rubs you raw that there are actually people out there that have it significantly better than you do. So to make them equal your idea is just to tax them down to the same level as you.

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 21):
Like those auto CEO's asking for a bailout after flying in private jets to D.C. It's just stupidity, not a class thng.

As several people have stated, it's not stupidity, it makes business sense. I wonder how Speaker Pelosi will get back to California next time she goes, think she'll be Y on a commercial carrier with a stop in a hub with a change of equipment and a two hour layover?

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