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Fly2HMO
Posts: 7184
Joined: Sat Jan 24, 2004 12:14 pm

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 4:47 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 38):

Er yes, that is exactly what
Given the splendid success of recent invasions, maybe the US would do better by looking to sorting out its own internal problems that tend to exacerbate problems in Mexico - such as both drug and gun policies.
means - together with a couple of suggestions as to how to ease Mexico's problems.

I know I did get your sarcasm, I was just adding more to your point  Smile

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 39):
Sounds like you should go walk the border in south Texas or AZ and tell us what you see.

Just walk? Until 5 years ago, I LIVED the first 20 years, straight, of my life in Mexico as an American expatriate (and I was technically an illegal alien in Mexico for the first 10 years, ironic huh?), and I still go back every year for months at a time. My parents still live there.

In those 20 years I was never robbed, mobbed, harassed molested nor did I fear for my life. Nobody I personally knew ever got shot at or violently robbed and I only ever heard of a handful of picket pocketing victims.

Granted HMO is a large but relatively quiet and safe city in this regard. The government of the state of Sonora has been better at controlling this mess than most other states, specially Chihuahua and Sinaloa.

Also as far as I'm concerned, and I know for a fact that this was and still is the case, most of the shootings involve people that were to some form or another with some druglord or any one of their minions. As long as the killings happen between their own kind, thats fine with me.

Yes unfortunately some innocent people will get caught in the crossfire, but quite frankly, if you're hanging out in an area that you know is infested with crime and violence, then you're asking for it. And this applies to any city or country in the world.

Quoting Slider (Reply 45):
But if you think painting people as racists to cover for your own refusal to see facts is a good M.O., so be it.

See above. If there's any American in this board that has seen, heck, LIVED with the facts, its me, or any other one of us who has actually lived there for that matter, like Captaink, but certainly not you.

When you've lived more than a spring break in Mexico, then we can talk.
Otherwise..  talktothehand 

Quoting Captaink (Reply 48):
Have you ever been to Mexico? Because you aren't talking like someone who has.

Obviously not.  Yeah sure

Quoting Captaink (Reply 48):
I have been living in Mexico for the past 4 years, and I have never had a problem.

P.S. Mexico is a nice place to live in, it is a different culture but I have nothing bad to say about the country, on the contrary, I really do like being here.

Ditto. I really miss living there. And interestingly enough, as soon as I came back to the US, my quality of life went downhill in some regards.

Quoting Captaink (Reply 48):
But comparing Mexico to Pakistan, Somalia, have you all smoked the pot being shipped across the border?

Apparently they have, Must be some good stuff Big grin
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 5:11 pm



Quoting FLY2HMO (Reply 50):
I was just adding more to your point

Thanks sorry to have been uncertain. I have been misunderestimated before !  chat  Interesting comments on being in Mexico. Many thanks. What is the version of a wetback for an American being there illegally?
 
santosdumont
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 7:22 am

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 5:41 pm



Quoting Slider (Reply 45):
As a Texan especially, I have an obvious vested interest and have seen firsthand the consequences of the culture of ingrained generational failed politics in Mexico. It goes beyond the drug war, which seems to be the thing most are grabbing onto in this thread.

Mexican politics (or lack thereof, some would argue) is an important piece of the puzzle. That said, the crux of the matter is the escalation of armed violence by drug cartels who in their warped collective mind are just trying to "take care of business" by keeping their product moving to where demand is the greatest -- the United States.

Like any good capitalist, the cartel bosses are simply removing "barriers to trade". Of course, in this instance the process translates into blood and human lives.

Like in Colombia during the Medellin Cartel's heyday in the 1980s, the Mexican drug lords have enough money and weapons to represent a type of "parallel power" with regard to the country's legitimate government.

As much as some in the US would like, it's impossible to separate the Mexican cartel issue from the fact that demand for cocaine by US consumers continues unchecked. That makes the US an inherent part of the mix.
"Pursuit Of Truth No Matter Where It Lies" -- Metallica
 
Fly2HMO
Posts: 7184
Joined: Sat Jan 24, 2004 12:14 pm

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 5:53 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 51):
What is the version of a wetback for an American being there illegally?

There really is no name for guys like me. They would call me "guero" (blond) occasionally but it was never meant in an offensive or racist manner and they say that to anybody that's blond or has fairer skin. Sometimes I'd even call myself a gringo lol

And NO "gringo" is NOT an offensive word as much as many Americans like to believe.

"Pinche gringo" on the other hand... Big grin  duck 

Also, like I said it was a technicality, my parents have Mexican citizenship so it really didn't matter, all I was missing were my Mexican naturalization papers, which I have now. To the Mexican government I was born in '97, the day I put my papers in, but I was actually born in 84. It's not like I was hiding from the Mexican government or running from the Mexican INS, I just wasn't officially "Mexican" to them until I was naturalized. Having dual citizenship has its perks  yes 
 
LH498
Posts: 92
Joined: Thu May 24, 2007 3:35 am

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 6:27 pm

I think it is necessary to remember that this report contains scenarios in a big timeframe until 2034, it doesn´t state that Mexico is a failed state, but rather can become one.

According to the defintion of a failed state provided by AM744 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed_state
there are 12 indicators that charactrize state vulnerability.
IMHO, Mexico has problems in at least 5:

Quote:
4. Chronic and sustained human flight: both the "brain drain" of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of "the middle class." Growth of exile/expat communities are also used as part of this indicator.

It may surprise some in here, but not all is illegal immigration and not all to the US.
In general more and more Mexicans are leaving the country, because they don't find opportunities at home and are looking for a safe place to live.
Mexico has been loosing some of its finest scientists, artists and other professionals, because they don't find the support, safety and opportunities at home.
Not forgetting of course, all the people that decided to leave after they were kidnapped, assaulted or, OTOH threatened by the Druglords (many journalists among them).

Quote:
5. Uneven economic development along group lines: determined by group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status. Also measured by group-based poverty levels, infant mortality rates, education levels.

A person who couldn't afford to pay for a private school and later for a private college, will have a harder time to find a proper job and even then, if he lacks connections his chances are even slimer.

Quote:
6. Sharp and/or severe economic decline: measured by a progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (using: per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates, poverty levels, business failures.) A sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments. Collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight. Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments

Its not only drugs, but on a smaller level smuggling of many products, especially pirate products of all kind, which are not only being smuggled in but produced aswell.
There is aswell the organized smuggling of people from all over the world into the US.
The other points do not look bad for Mexico.

Quote:
7. Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state: endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation. Includes any widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes.

The power and corruption of those ruling elites has been growing into disgusting levels.
All Union leaders are bunch of mafiosi, that have the power to bent federal and local governments. E.g the leader of the teachers union can literally dictate the educational policy and demand as many millions of Pesos to spend as she pleases. Nobody [b]does[/] anything against it. They have mansions, yachts and millions all over the world, but nobody seems to care in the intersest of "social peace", the prefered pretext of a mediocre and incompetent political class.
A political class to which words like transparency, accountability and political representation, are just nice sounding words without meaning. All political parties without exception don't act in the interest of Mexico, today when Mexico is facing very tough challenges and when unity is much more needed, the opossition doesn't seem to care if Troy burns and the party in power doesn't act like one.
The governeurs have found a very clever startegy against the Cartels: Its a federal crime, not our business. It was published in many newspapers, that a couple of weeks ago, President Calderón exploded in anger against some Governeurs because he doesn´t see any commitement from them.
The two largest TV broadcasting companies, Televisa and TVAzteca, openly have violated laws and regulations, and the authorites have allways closed the eyes.

A state that is unable to apply the law, is a weak state. Period.
And a society that tolerates this, is equally responsable for this failure.

Quote:
8. Progressive deterioration of public services: a disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation. Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies

It has been a while since the state has lost the monopoly of force, hence is unable to effectively protect its citizens. The worst part is, that the state itself doesn's want to apply force when necessary. It's ridiculous that in Mexico City, among others, anybody can block a street as he pleases and the police will let him do it and never press charges against him. What about the rest of the citizens that suddenly cannot continue their journey? Nobody cares.
Public services are getting worse:
Electricity is unstable and the service is interrupted very frequently.
Public education is very poor(private is not necesarily better), look at PISA.
Public transportation, at least in Mexico City, is not planned as a whole and in recent years more in the interest of political image rather than efficiency.

Its more than the war on drugs, which endangers the stability of the Mexican State and it is not only the Mexican governement's responsiblity alone to prevent that from happening.

I know I may sound very negative, but it angers me to see my homecountry in the state it is now. It makes me sad, to see such a great country facing this difficulties.

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 44):
Quoting UAL777 (Reply 42):
Its getting to the point that it is becoming our problem.

You are wrong my friend.

Its not becoming "your" problem.

its a "We" Problem, You are also the problem.

And unfortunatly the US Congress has been cutting and blocking financial and material aid promised by the US Government. Not a good sign of cooperation.
 
ual777
Posts: 1642
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 6:40 pm



Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 44):

Would there be drug cartels in Mexico if there were NO demand in the USA?

BTW yesterday we got like 6 heads in Jalisco and today You had a wacko kill people in Alabama, so I guess everyone has its problems....I could blame the USA as easily as being the provider for guns and ammo for the druglords, hey your gun happy country has become OUR problem...


BTW I guess if we use the same method the media uses to sensationalize everything we could make the following statement:

The USA has 100% more deadly shootings than Mexico, based on yesterdays news. (we know its not true but in the caso of Alabama and Jalisco IT WOULD BE)

Flipping that logic around, would there be guns bought here and illegally sent back to Mexico if there wasn't demand? Further, is it U.S. citizens sneding the guns back?

Oh, and last August in Alabama 5 men were tortured with electric shocks and had their throats slit. It happened about a mile from my old high school in one of the nicer areas of town. Can you tell me where the victims and their killers were from? (HINT: its not Alabama).
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
santosdumont
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 7:22 am

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:23 pm



Quoting UAL777 (Reply 42):
Its getting to the point that it is becoming our problem.

The drug cartels -- be they in Mexico, Colombia or Brazil -- are fundamentally "your" problem. The cartels are just satisfying US demand for cocaine -- be it in Hollywood (I'm sure the blow was flowing freely on Oscar night), New York, Capitol Hill, or any point in between.

To the drug bosses, it doesn't matter if the consumer comes in the form of your stereotypical "crack ho" or the rich and famous (whose only punishment for snorting is usualy showing up on Oprah and shedding crocodile tears).
"Pursuit Of Truth No Matter Where It Lies" -- Metallica
 
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TheRedBaron
Posts: 3276
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:30 pm



Quoting UAL777 (Reply 55):
Flipping that logic around, would there be guns bought here and illegally sent back to Mexico if there wasn't demand? Further, is it U.S. citizens sending the guns back?

Having guns is illegal in Mexico and if convicted it has a huge can time. (BIG IF BTW)

So the NON EXISTENT DRUG-LORDS in the USA are paying with weapons to the REALLY EXISTENT Mexican drug-lords.
There are no armories or gun stores in México. so Thank you but your point doesn't flip.

Quoting UAL777 (Reply 55):
Oh, and last August in Alabama 5 men were tortured with electric shocks and had their throats slit. It happened about a mile from my old high school in one of the nicer areas of town. Can you tell me where the victims and their killers were from? (HINT: its not Alabama).

Most probably from Mexico or latin America, but since it was on the nicer part s of your town I guess the victims were not just random citizens...He who travels with wolves ...eventually will learn to howl.

I wonder if they legalize ALL DRUGS who will loose more in the long run...
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
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stasisLAX
Topic Author
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RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Wed Mar 11, 2009 10:40 pm

From the U.S. State Department Travelers Advisory Update as of 2/20/09:

"The greatest increase in violence has occurred near the U.S. border. However, U.S. citizens traveling throughout Mexico should exercise caution in unfamiliar areas and be aware of their surroundings at all times. Mexican and foreign bystanders have been injured or killed in violent attacks in cities across the country, demonstrating the heightened risk of violence in public places. In recent years, dozens of U.S. citizens have been kidnapped across Mexico. Many of these cases remain unresolved. U.S. citizens who believe they are being targeted for kidnapping or other crimes should notify Mexican officials and the nearest American consulate or the Embassy as soon as possible, and should consider returning to the United States.

U.S. citizens should make every attempt to travel on main roads during daylight hours, particularly the toll ("cuota") roads, which generally are more secure. Occasionally, the U.S. Embassy and consulates advise their employees as well as private U.S. citizens to avoid certain areas, abstain from driving on certain roads because of dangerous conditions or criminal activity, or recommend driving during daylight hours only. When warranted, U.S. government employees are restricted from traveling to or within parts of Mexico without prior approval from their supervisors. When this happens, the Embassy or the affected consulate will alert the local U.S. citizen Warden network and post the information on their respective websites, indicating the nature of the concern and the expected time period for which the restriction will remain in place. U.S. citizen visitors are encouraged to stay in the well-known tourist areas of the cities. Travelers should leave their itinerary with a friend or family member not traveling with them, avoid traveling alone, and should check with their cellular provider prior to departure to confirm that their cell phone is capable of roaming on GSM or 3G international networks. Do not display expensive-looking jewelry, large amounts of money, or other valuable items."

Source: http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_3028.html
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
 
AM744
Posts: 1475
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2001 11:05 pm

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:18 pm

I agree with most of the points you made. I just have a little itch with these:

Quoting LH498 (Reply 54):
A person who couldn't afford to pay for a private school and later for a private college, will have a harder time to find a proper job and even then, if he lacks connections his chances are even slimer.

True for an upper management job, specially these days; not necessarily when there is actual work that needs to be done and from which a perfectly decent living can be made. In my field (software development), there is only one private school, that shall remain unnamed and it's not ITESM (I'm talking about actual job experiences with graduates from all walks of life), whose graduates I have found to rank up with those of public universities (skills, commitment and ethics).

This makes sense because the teachers are the SAME, and there is no safety net in public school, for there are a thousand other candidates waiting for you to drop out. Of course, all higher education institutes could get better, as you clearly pointed out.

Quoting LH498 (Reply 54):
Public education is very poor(private is not necesarily better), look at PISA.

When compared to OCDE, Mexico ranks poorly, when compared with countries within the same per capita income range, not so much. There are "areas of opportunity", though.
 
ual777
Posts: 1642
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Thu Mar 12, 2009 7:28 pm



Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 57):

Having guns is illegal in Mexico and if convicted it has a huge can time. (BIG IF BTW)

So the NON EXISTENT DRUG-LORDS in the USA are paying with weapons to the REALLY EXISTENT Mexican drug-lords.
There are no armories or gun stores in México. so Thank you but your point doesn't flip.

The point does flip. You stated that there wouldn't be drug cartels in Mexico if the U.S. didn't have demand for drugs. The same could be said about the guns that are bought in the U.S. and taken to Mexico.

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 57):

Most probably from Mexico or latin America, but since it was on the nicer part s of your town I guess the victims were not just random citizens...He who travels with wolves ...eventually will learn to howl.

I wonder if they legalize ALL DRUGS who will loose more in the long run...

The victims and the killers were all from Mexico/Central America except for one.
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
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RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Fri Mar 13, 2009 3:12 pm



Quoting Santosdumont (Reply 56):
The drug cartels -- be they in Mexico, Colombia or Brazil -- are fundamentally "your" problem. The cartels are just satisfying US demand for cocaine -- be it in Hollywood (I'm sure the blow was flowing freely on Oscar night), New York, Capitol Hill, or any point in between.

To the drug bosses, it doesn't matter if the consumer comes in the form of your stereotypical "crack ho" or the rich and famous (whose only punishment for snorting is usualy showing up on Oprah and shedding crocodile tears).

I agree. You're either part of the solution or you're part of the problem.

We North Americans consume huge quantities of dope, and we export weapons to Mexico-and Canada, for that matter-because the trade is largely unregulated.

Until the demand for dope is addressed at the individual level and the supply of weapons is choked off, the average fellow in Mexico is going to have this mess fought out on every street corner and in every plaza in his country.

I've got to ask: Is reality and sobriety so bad to experience? I've been doing it for years and it suits me fine.

What's amazing to me, despite the much ballyhooed police corruption in Mexico we hear about, is that brave men and women are stepping forward and putting their lives on the line to fight this battle in their country.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
PPVRA
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Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Fri Mar 13, 2009 3:55 pm



Quoting Dougloid (Reply 61):
Until the demand for dope is addressed at the individual level and the supply of weapons is choked off, the average fellow in Mexico is going to have this mess fought out on every street corner and in every plaza in his country.

Brazilian drug cartels ransack police and military bases for weapons and ammo. This is made worse by corruption.

They will simply switch to other sources if arms flow from the U.S. is cut off.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
sr117
Posts: 683
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2000 2:00 am

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Fri Mar 13, 2009 5:38 pm



Quoting PPVRA (Reply 62):
Brazilian drug cartels ransack police and military bases for weapons and ammo. This is made worse by corruption.

They will simply switch to other sources if arms flow from the U.S. is cut off.

Nobody is saying there is -one- magic pill that will make the problem go away. Things have gotten to the point they are in through a combination of many factors. Guns being harder to get would certainly put a bigger dent in the drug trafficker's pocket books and that is what Mexico is trying to do.

The government has correctly stated that stopping the drug trade is next to impossible (as impossible as eliminating the demand for illegal drugs in the US, if the most powerful country on earth cannot stop it's citizens from snorting, how can we, with less resources, eliminate such a powerful industry?) human creativity truly knows no bounds, especially when you factor in crazy profits to be made. However what is attainable and a realistic goal is pushing the drug cartels into much less damaging business models.

Challenging the state and making life impossible for regular citizens would simply be bad business in any developed country with a properly functioning judicial system. The cartels need to be pushed into the underworld where they belong and stay there. I think that is the goal that both countries have to aim for.

The legalization of hard drugs, while the lesser of all evils, is politically impossible at the moment. And the border isn't going away or closing, never ever (much to the chagrin of many conservatives). So we just have to work towards the most realistic and attainable goal at the moment.
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Is Mexico Becoming A "Failed State"?

Fri Mar 13, 2009 5:40 pm



Quoting SR117 (Reply 63):
Nobody is saying there is -one- magic pill that will make the problem go away.

If there was, it definitely should be trafficked - on a major scale!! Big grin

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