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Aaron747
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North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 6:24 am

Big news from our unfriendly neighbor over here in Asia:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090525/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

North Korea defiantly declared Monday that it successfully carried out its second underground nuclear test...the country's official Korean Central News Agency said the regime "successfully conducted one more underground nuclear test on May 25 as part of measures to bolster its nuclear deterrent for self-defense."

The US won't confirm anything yet, but over here people are talking like it was a done deal

seismologists from the U.S., South Korea and Japan reported activity shortly after 9:50 a.m. in a northeastern area where North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006.

The Japan Meteorological Agency measured the seismic activity at magnitude-5.3. Quake expert Gen Aoki noted that its depth was "very shallow."

"The area is not active seismically so it is highly possible that it could be an artificial quake," Aoki said in Tokyo.


Looks like they lost face sufficiently with their failed missile test last month and lost even more with the turn in sentiment against them. Now they're only going to further attempt to up the ante in the region.

North Korea, incensed by U.N. Security Council condemnation of its April 5 rocket launch, had warned last month that it would restart it rogue nuclear program

But this time there's nothing to stop them since they've renounced ever participating in the six-party talks again.
 
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OA260
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 8:43 am

Just switched on the TV and its breaking news on a few channels and International community has condemed it.

''North Korea has carried out a second and more powerful nuclear test - defying international pressure to rein in its atomic programmes.

The force of the blast was between 10 and 20 kilotons, according to Russia's defence ministry quoted by news agencies.
This was vastly more than the estimated one kiloton blast three years ago.''

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor...:_Nuke_Test_Condemned_Around_World

I wonder how long it will be before ''action'' is taken against them.
 
RussianJet
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 9:15 am



Quoting OA260 (Reply 1):
I wonder how long it will be before ''action'' is taken against them.

Woe betide anyone who takes 'action' against those who have nuclear weapons capable of such power.
 
NoUFO
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 9:36 am



Quoting OA260 (Reply 1):
I wonder how long it will be before ''action'' is taken against them.

Don't hold your breath.
What kind of action is that supposed to be?

Military force can be ruled out with approx. 4,000 tanks standing at the South Korean border and the potential to launch a (albeit small) nuklear attack.

Tighter sanctions - France demands them - will first and foremost hurt the already pi$$-poor population.

Isolation - North Korea *IS* isolated anyway. Only China and perhaps Russia could really show a little more distance. These countries are key, I believe.

We have a saying here in Germany: "Ist der Ruf erst ruiniert, lebt es sich gänzlich ungeniert", which loosely translates into "Once your reputation is ruined, you can lead your life blithely unabashed."
With Russia and China standing still, North Korea can basically do what it want (except firing the first shot).
 
connies4ever
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 9:44 am



Quoting NoUFO (Reply 3):
Military force can be ruled out with approx. 4,000 tanks standing at the South Korean border and the potential to launch a (albeit small) nuklear attack.

I'm not so sure about the 'small nuclear attack'. There is a substantial difference between a nuclear device and a nuclear warhead, and we don't know where the NKoreans are in this process. From what I have read in open literature, opinion seems to be that NKorea is 2-4 years away from having something they can sit on a missile. I do not have any info at hand as to any a/c that could give them an air-dropable capability.
 
Mir
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 9:55 am



Quoting Aaron747 (Thread starter):
Looks like they lost face sufficiently with their failed missile test last month and lost even more with the turn in sentiment against them. Now they're only going to further attempt to up the ante in the region.

Not that much of a surprise. Like Iran, North Korea craves attention and relevance.

Quoting Aaron747 (Thread starter):
But this time there's nothing to stop them since they've renounced ever participating in the six-party talks again.

I see two options here: either get China (who has to be seriously pissed about this) to put the screws on North Korea, or take out the nuclear facilities of North Korea (and only the nuclear facilities). I'm not privy to the intelligence, of course, so I don't know whether the second option is even feasible.

Preferably the first option by far, with the looming prospect of the second to convince China to help us out.

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 3):
With Russia and China standing still, North Korea can basically do what it want (except firing the first shot).

Which, when push comes to shove, is a situation that is acceptable in the short term. There are a heck of a lot of other problems to be dealt with right now, and the important thing is that North Korea is not going to fire the first shot. In the long term, there will have to be a resolution that involves either regime change or elimination of the arsenal.

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 4):
There is a substantial difference between a nuclear device and a nuclear warhead, and we don't know where the NKoreans are in this process. From what I have read in open literature, opinion seems to be that NKorea is 2-4 years away from having something they can sit on a missile. I do not have any info at hand as to any a/c that could give them an air-dropable capability.

 checkmark  If their missile technology is anything to go by, they have plenty of work to do in order to miniaturize their nuclear technology to the point where it could reliably sit on a missile. An air-drop might be feasible, but it's pretty damn hard to pull a sneak attack that way.

-Mir
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 9:56 am

So which countries in the world are allowed to have nuclear weapons? Who is more "rogue State" than the other?

If Russia, the US, Israel, France, India, Pakistan, China and the UK can have these weapons of mass destruction why can't other nations have them too? Why not Japan? or Iran?
 
NoUFO
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 10:10 am



Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 4):
There is a substantial difference between a nuclear device and a nuclear warhead,

Correct, still (or one reason more why) a war would be unjustified.
 
baguy
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 10:10 am



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 6):
Why not Japan?

After the end of World War II, the Japanese constitution was amended to forbid them from having any kind of military force, except for a small self defence force which can only be used in self defence. It was designed to prevent another World War where Japan posed a major threat.

Hope this helps,

BAguy
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 10:28 am

Looks like a means of telling the world "we have a dangerous capability,so back off"

Interesting to view the world response.

regds
MEL
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 10:43 am



Quoting Baguy (Reply 8):
After the end of World War II, the Japanese constitution was amended to forbid them from having any kind of military force, except for a small self defence force which can only be used in self defence. It was designed to prevent another World War where Japan posed a major threat.

We are no longer in WWII configuration.

What if North Korea wants to attack Japan?
They have the right to defend themselves and they have the right to posess nuclear weapons just the same as these other nations do, especially now with N Korea having their own nukes.
 
baguy
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 10:47 am



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 10):
We are no longer in WWII configuration.

What if North Korea wants to attack Japan?
They have the right to defend themselves and they have the right to posess nuclear weapons just the same as these other nations do, especially now with N Korea having their own nukes.

I see,

This is a point of view i agree with - i do not see any reason why Japan should not have an army, air force etc. but, i have heard the chinese are still sceptical, after what happened in WWII.

I totally agree with you, but I guess at the moment they literally don't have the right!

Sorry I misunderstood your post,


BAguy
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 10:51 am



Quoting Baguy (Reply 11):
I totally agree with you, but I guess at the moment they literally don't have the right!

Japan has the right to nuclear weapons just as much as China.
I don't see why one nation should have the right and not the other.
We are done with WWII era. The world geo-strategic configuration has changed.

Quoting Baguy (Reply 11):

Sorry I misunderstood your post,

No problem!
 
baguy
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 11:01 am



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
Quoting Baguy (Reply 11):
I totally agree with you, but I guess at the moment they literally don't have the right!

Japan has the right to nuclear weapons just as much as China.

What I mean by that is, at the moment their constitution means they don't have the right to have them - they should have the right, but they literally don't.

BAguy
 
NoUFO
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 11:25 am

The question whether or not Japan or Iran should have nukes or the right to possess nukes is completely irrelevant.

Besides, I for one want a world with fewer nukes and fewer countries developing nuclear weapons.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 11:29 am



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
Japan has the right to nuclear weapons just as much as China. I don't see why one nation should have the right and not the other.
We are done with WWII era. The world geo-strategic configuration has changed.

Most Japanese know this but political will to change the Constitution is very weak here. There have been NO Constitutional amendments since the American version of the Constitution was ratified in 1952. In addition, so long as there is significant US military presence in Japan, many citizens will see further growth of the domestic military as a waste of money and resources. Not to mention that due to Hiroshima/Nagasaki victims and their many associated lobbying organizations, any politician talking of nuclear development is committing career suicide.
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 11:35 am



Quoting NoUFO (Reply 14):
I for one want a world with fewer nukes and fewer countries developing nuclear weapons.

All nuclear weapons should be dismantled and banned by the UN Security Council.
This is total utopia though.  Wow!

So considering the utopia, if some countries are allowed to have nuclear weapons there is no reason that other countries cannot have them or develop their own program.
 
LH526
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 12:15 pm

Oh yeah, your population is dying of starvation, you have a net GDP that rivales Albania around 1900, your biggest export goods are cartoons and yet you ahve th power, money and ability to design an atomic warhead! Point is ... every sanction and acts of the western free world first hits the poor population and not Kim and his leader comrades.
 
NAV20
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 12:43 pm



Quoting OA260 (Reply 1):
I wonder how long it will be before ''action'' is taken against them.

As others have said, depends what you mean by 'action.' The only thing that might possibly work is a full-scale invasion from South Korea and we all found out how practical that is, in the Korean climate and topography, back in 1951.........

Besides, what can they actually DO? Loose off one or two nukes, in maybe four years' time?

First of all, why? They'd well know that US and British submarines, alone, have enough firepower to bomb North Korea back into the Stone Age within a couple of weeks of NK starting anything. Leave alone their respective air forces.

Same thing with Iran. Does anyone imagine that, within thirty years or so, they could possibly develop enough firepower to achieve 'DFSC' (decisive first strike capability) against the Americans, the British, and the rest of NATO? If they can't, they might manage to destroy a couple of cities - but at the cost of their entire country being obliterated within about four days.

To my mind, the whole problem of 'fringe countries' developing nukes is being exaggerated to a crazy degree. Less than 150 years ago, an eddy of panic swept through US business because the Indians had got hold of Winchester repeating rifles, while the US Army only had single-shot Springfields. But the Indians never had a chance of winning the Plains Wars.........

It's not in the interests of either North Korea or Iran to start a nuclear war.

So neither country will ever do it.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 12:58 pm



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 18):

It's not in the interests of either North Korea or Iran to start a nuclear war.

Perhaps not, and all of your points are fair, especially that mindful quip about the so-called "wars" for the Plains. All that said, what have they got to lose? Not so much in the sense of their own homelands, but waging war on Western actors by proxy? Iran is a known sponsor of terrorism where the Republican Guard is concerned. North Korea has known ambitions of furthering itself as an arms seller. All nuclear development does is make even those aims that much more undesirable.
 
NAV20
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 1:37 pm



Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 19):
Iran is a known sponsor of terrorism where the Republican Guard is concerned. North Korea has known ambitions of furthering itself as an arms seller.

Both activities are 'business as usual' for all intelligence services, Aaron747, including the CIA, MI6, and the Mossad.

Are you saying that Iran and North Korea must - 'at all costs,' as they say - be prevented from doing to us what WE'VE all been doing to them for decades past?  Smile
 
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DocLightning
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Mon May 25, 2009 3:57 pm



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 18):


It's not in the interests of either North Korea or Iran to start a nuclear war.

It's not in their interests to be in this exercise, either.

But they're doing it.

It strikes me that this would be a perfect opportunity for the use of an EMP device.
 
TheCol
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 12:16 am



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
I don't see why one nation should have the right and not the other.

Because we don't want lunatic dictators to possess nuclear weapons that they can use at a whim, or sell those weapons to other lunatic dictators and terrorists.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 20):
Are you saying that Iran and North Korea must - 'at all costs,' as they say - be prevented from doing to us what WE'VE all been doing to them for decades past?

So are you saying that Iran and North Korea should be able to sell WMD's to enemies of NATO/Western nations, including terrorists, unopposed?
 
NAV20
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 1:06 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 21):
It's not in their interests to be in this exercise, either.

But they're doing it.



Quoting TheCol (Reply 22):
Because we don't want lunatic dictators to possess nuclear weapons that they can use at a whim, or sell those weapons to other lunatic dictators and terrorists.

Slight misunderstanding, guys. I'm not saying that I particularly like what North Korea, and possibly Iran, are doing. I'm just saying that we have to accept the fact that nuclear technology (including weapons technology) is eventually going to spread throughout the world - just as the repeating rifle did  Smile - and that therefore there is no practical possibility of being able to restrict ownership to the current (self-selected) nuclear club for much longer.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 21):
It strikes me that this would be a perfect opportunity for the use of an EMP device.



Quoting TheCol (Reply 22):
Because we don't want lunatic dictators to possess nuclear weapons that they can use at a whim, or sell those weapons to other lunatic dictators and terrorists.

Please note my use of the word 'practical.' As I see it, the only way to prevent NK, possibly Iran, and many other countries from developing nuclear technology, and eventually very possibly actual weapons, is to invade and subjugate them.

A whole lot more Iraqs.

Just 'bombing them and walking away,' which seems to be what you are both suggesting, would only cause them to redouble their efforts to develop nukes of their own. Besides, of course, creating many millions of 'instant terrorists' bent on revenge..........
 
britjap
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 2:05 am

You claim that, in your opinion....

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 16):
All nuclear weapons should be dismantled and banned by the UN Security Council.

And yet you ask this question??????.......

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 6):
If Russia, the US, Israel, France, India, Pakistan, China and the UK can have these weapons of mass destruction why can't other nations have them too?

Please do not take this as a personal attack, but I will NEVER understand this attitude which so many people sadly seem to have these days.

You said yourself...

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 16):
This is total utopia though.

The idea of total global disarmament as you say is sadly not within the realms of reality in the current world.

But to say simply that because a handful of nations already possess nuclear capability then any other country should be also allowed to have the capability in the interests of "fairness??" is highly illogical and completely opposed to your claimed stance on the issue.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
The world geo-strategic configuration has changed.

To a great extent this is true, but with regards to nuclear weapons, like it or not, there IS a current global status quo in which some nations possess nuclear capability and some don't, and which has thus far prevented nuclear conflict. If you want to reduce the overall global nuclear arsenal, the first and most important thing to do is to PREVENT ANY FURTHER nuclear proliferation. Anything else upsets the status quo, increases regional & global tensions and makes conflict (both nuclear and non-nuclear) more likely.

As for the argument "why can such countries as the UK & US maintain nuclear arsenals and yet deny the capability to others?"....In my opinion the answer is simple and is split into two parts.

Firstly - Simply because as I said, that has been the situation, and therefore the status quo, for several decades. If you believe in disarmament & nuclear non-proliferation then this is the start point from which you must work from. Any further proliferation only elevates risks and takes you further away from any possible disarmament.

Secondly - The blunt truth is that, if nuclear weapons are to exist, then there most certainly ARE nations that are FAR more 'qualified' to possess them.

Off the top of my head, a nation that is a......

progressive, liberal, pluralist, secular democracy espousing capitalism tempered with socialism...that has freedom of thought, freedom of speech & freedom of press... that has a separation of church and state...that has an independent judiciary...a military that is subservient to a civil government...etc

has far more 'right' to possess nuclear weapons. And I am sure there are many more factors that you could come up with. How many of these can be ticked off by the likes of the DPRK or Iran.

You can accuse me of arrogance, cultural imperialism, general ignorance and plain prejudice etc if you want, but in my eyes a nation that can tick 'yes' to all of the above and further conditions has developed a society that is far better able to be trusted with such destructive capability, and thereby can claim more 'right' to possess nuclear weapons.

I think that I should mention at this point that I do not believe that these form pre-conditions that when met automatically justify nuclear weapons development (I am opposed to further nuclear proliferation). China for instance would certainly not make the grade. But in such instances, the only option is to refer to the first point. China's nuclear status forms part of the global status quo which, at least for the moment, we should try to maintain.


As for the question of "Why not Japan?". Well Japan certainly has the intellectual and industrial capacity to develop these weapons. The only thing preventing their development is the Japanese public. Japan maintains one of the strongest non-proliferation stances of any nation. Personally I am happy not to have nukes form part of Japans defence strategy. Their development would not help resolve any problems in this region.


DPRK's continued nuclear development certainly angers me greatly and any defence of their actions irks me considerably. It would be nice to think that the international community could do something to really try to resolve this issue but I remain sadly sceptical that anything meaningful can be done.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
I'm just saying that we have to accept the fact that nuclear technology (including weapons technology) is eventually going to spread throughout the world - just as the repeating rifle did - and that therefore there is no practical possibility of being able to restrict ownership to the current (self-selected) nuclear club for much longer.

Wow, you have an even more pessimistic outlook than I do. I wasn't sure that was possible.  Smile Still, I don't think it is a reason not to try. Surely must be nobler to try and fail than not to bother, especially for an issue of such severity??
 
Okie
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 2:37 am



Quoting NoUFO (Reply 3):
Isolation - North Korea *IS* isolated anyway. Only China and perhaps Russia could really show a little more distance. These countries are key, I believe.

North Korea is just thumbing their noses at the UN and other countries.

So who is going to make China have much influence over NK. The US is in a pickle as far as relationship with China and the amount of US debt it holds as having any leverage to ask China to do anything.
While NK gets some oil/fuel and food from China what leverage does China really have.

I am not sure what influence that Russia really has either other than a supplier of military equipment.

The real shame here is that for a country that has no real GNP wasting large portions of its resources arming itself instead of growing its economy.

Okie
 
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DocLightning
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 3:05 am



Quoting Okie (Reply 25):
So who is going to make China have much influence over NK.

China will. Do you honestly believe China wants a bunch of maniacs with nuclear weapons within shooting distance? The U.S. needs to back out of this one and let China deal with it. As soon as NK realizes that they aren't going to get a rise out of the U.S. they'll start poking China with a stick.

And that will be a tremendously poor idea. The Chinese have a tolerance for this sort of horsedung that's about 0.0003mm high and they will sytematically dismantle every single trace of the North Korean military and might go so far as to annex the nation.
 
NAV20
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 4:20 am

Quoting BritJap (Reply 24):
Wow, you have an even more pessimistic outlook than I do. I wasn't sure that was possible. Still, I don't think it is a reason not to try.

It's being so cheerful that keeps me going, BritJap!  

I'm not saying that we shouldn't try. And, indeed, 'we' are trying - by means of sanctions, diplomacy, etc. What I'm against is the argument that some people always advance when this issue comes up - that the only answer is to attack places like North Korea and and Iran with the very weapons that we fear that they are seeking to develop.

To the 'man in the street' in both countries, so far as he has any political voice, constant threats to annihilate large numbers of them must make a pretty unanswerable case for developing their own 'nuclear deterrent' as soon as ever possible?

I am 'optimistic' in one sense though. 'Deterrence' has worked since 1945. No nuclear power has used nukes since, for the simple reason that it would invite massive retaliation. As a cynic, I tend to take the view that that has been the case because the politicians knew only too well that, nowadays, the very first bombs would come straight down their own personal throats. That was certainly the case with the Japanese leadership in 1945; IMO they surrendered not because the Allies had dropped two bombs, but because they found out that there were dozens more being made.........and that it was only a matter of time before they were dropped on Tokyo........

And the same psychology must apply to the North Korean and Iranian leadership. The certainty of massive retaliation, on a scale dwarfing their own limited capability.

So the only answer, to my mind, is continued diplomacy and economic pressure. As far as diplomacy is concerned, though, the West in particular is living in a 'glass house.' Israel, India, and Pakistan were allowed to develop nuclear weapons without a murmur of opposition; now two countries are being mercilessly sanctioned and vilified for merely trying to do the same thing.

If steps were taken to persuade the existing 'illegal weapons' countries - all three of whom are heavily dependent on overseas aid and subsidy - to dismantle their nukes, I would expect that diplomacy would have a much better chance.

At the moment both Iran and North Korea are literally surrounded by nuclear powers which take turns in attacking them politically and economically. It must seem to them that they're not being allowed to 'join the club' but are nevertheless being told to obey the rules - while others are allowed to go on breaking them....

[Edited 2009-05-25 21:22:26]
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 11:43 am



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 18):
They'd well know that US and British submarines, alone, have enough firepower to bomb North Korea back into the Stone Age within a couple of weeks of NK starting anything.

Weeks? Try minutes.

And that's just from one U.S. Ohio-class SSBN.
 
aero145
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 11:55 am

Okay, N-Korea has atomic weapons. Sh*t!

Actually I’m more afraid of the US than N-Korea, I mean, let’s face it, the US is the only country that has used atomic weapons (mind you, over sixty years ago!) and they were quite successful - over 250,000 people either died in the bombings or later because of it.

No, I’m not trying to start a Hiroshima & Nagasaki discussion, just pointing out that it has only been the US that used this kind of weapons. And also, what could the N-Koreans do when there are humongous (nuclear Ohio-class) subs in the sea nearby?
 
B2443
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 4:06 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 26):
Do you honestly believe China wants a bunch of maniacs with nuclear weapons within shooting distance?

To China, NK may not be as much of a maniac as Japan, or Vietnam, or Malaysia, or the Philipines, or Indonisia, or the U.S. Try look at this from China's standpoint, who gives China more headaches? Certainly not NK. There's absolutely no incentive for China to stop NK from what NK is doing before China's demands are met. If the U.S is seriouly looking to China to help out NK, then the U.S perhaps needs to help China get rid of some of China's security headaches. There's no free dinner...

I am just not sure the U.S is that serious at the moment. Plus, who would NK attack first? Certainly not China, or the U.S., or South Korea in that matter.
 
KSYR
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 6:48 pm



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 6):
So which countries in the world are allowed to have nuclear weapons? Who is more "rogue State" than the other?

If Russia, the US, Israel, France, India, Pakistan, China and the UK can have these weapons of mass destruction why can't other nations have them too? Why not Japan? or Iran?

Why are police SWAT team members the only people allowed to walk the streets with body armor, flashbang grenades, and fully automatic weapons? Why can't drug dealers and mobsters do the same thing?
 
TheCol
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 8:05 pm



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
Just 'bombing them and walking away,' which seems to be what you are both suggesting, would only cause them to redouble their efforts to develop nukes of their own. Besides, of course, creating many millions of 'instant terrorists' bent on revenge..........



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 27):
If steps were taken to persuade the existing 'illegal weapons' countries - all three of whom are heavily dependent on overseas aid and subsidy - to dismantle their nukes, I would expect that diplomacy would have a much better chance

Yeah, I was leaning towards bribing them off. When countries start developing nukes, it's usually out of desperation.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 26):
The U.S. needs to back out of this one and let China deal with it. As soon as NK realizes that they aren't going to get a rise out of the U.S. they'll start poking China with a stick.

 checkmark 

That's a good point.

Quoting Aero145 (Reply 29):
And also, what could the N-Koreans do when there are humongous (nuclear Ohio-class) subs in the sea nearby?

A. Crazy, desperate, and paranoid dictator on his death bed with nothing to lose
B. Cash strapped nation looking to make a few bucks

Yeah, I'd be a little concerned.
 
aero145
Posts: 2859
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 8:17 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 32):
A. Crazy, desperate, and paranoid dictator on his death bed with nothing to lose

Well, good point.

Quoting TheCol (Reply 32):
B. Cash strapped nation looking to make a few bucks

In what way then?

Quoting TheCol (Reply 32):
Yeah, I'd be a little concerned.

Has anyone been crazy enough to do what the US did in ’45? Nope.  Smile I don’t suppose N-Korea would be crazy enough to do anything similar to that, but I could imagine them trying to show off by sending some firecrackers to China, maybe.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 8:44 pm



Quoting B2443 (Reply 30):
Try look at this from China's standpoint, who gives China more headaches? Certainly not NK.

Know that annoying bully in elementary school who picked on you just to get a rise out of you? Remember when you finally learned to not give him the satisfaction? What did he do? He stopped and found a new target.

NK is that annoying bully. The U.S. simply needs to say "if you fire so much as a flying mousetrap in our direction, we will dump more conventional weapons on you than your entire projected nuclear arsenal combined," and then drop it. Once NK realizes that they can't get a rise out of us, they'll start finding someone else to annoy.

And I hope it's the Chinese. Oh, I very much hope it's the Chinese.
 
B2443
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 8:51 pm



Quoting Aero145 (Reply 33):
I could imagine them trying to show off by sending some firecrackers to China, maybe.

Why would they ever attack China?! That would be suicidal. If they decide to show off for real, Japan would be the target. That way S Korea and China might actually want see happen. Let's face it, Japan is the perputual war criminal there in the far east.
 
TheCol
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 8:53 pm



Quoting Aero145 (Reply 33):
Has anyone been crazy enough to do what the US did in '45? Nope.

Remember that was in a different time, with a totally new way to wage war. The same could have been said for the use of chlorine gas as a weapon in 1915. If the world could really comprehend the devastating results of using those weapons like we do now, those events could have unfolded differently.

Quoting Aero145 (Reply 33):
don't suppose N-Korea would be crazy enough to do anything similar to that

I wouldn't bet on that.

Quoting Aero145 (Reply 33):
In what way then?

Selling nuclear weapons and technology to fellow crazy dictators and terrorists.
 
aero145
Posts: 2859
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 10:07 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 36):
Remember that was in a different time, with a totally new way to wage war. The same could have been said for the use of chlorine gas as a weapon in 1915. If the world could really comprehend the devastating results of using those weapons like we do now, those events could have unfolded differently.

Of course it was, but IMHO it doesn’t matter. Sixty-four years, nothing done by all the other nations with nuclear weapons. Why should it suddenly happen now? Okay, the dicty is ill but…

Quoting TheCol (Reply 36):
Selling nuclear weapons and technology to fellow crazy dictators and terrorists.

Makes sense - on the previous part. We’ll at least see what happens.

I think waiting would be the best bet. Maybe they have nothing as extreme as they want us to believe; time will tell. At least attacking them at this point would be quite bad.
 
Phoenix9
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Tue May 26, 2009 10:39 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 32):
A. Crazy, desperate, and paranoid dictator on his death bed with nothing to lose
B. Cash strapped nation looking to make a few bucks

Good points and B is a direct consequence of A. The problem can be taken care of relatively easily...and cheaply. Instead of waging a full scale war on NK, which will be costly in human lives and money, a simple bullet to head can do the job. I'm sure KGB, Mi5 or CIA are more than capable of accomplishing that without a hitch.
 
AGM100
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 2:51 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 34):
The U.S. simply needs to say "if you fire so much as a flying mousetrap in our direction, we will dump more conventional weapons on you than your entire projected nuclear arsenal combined," and then drop it. Once NK realizes that they can't get a rise out of us, they'll start finding someone else to annoy.

And I hope it's the Chinese. Oh, I very much hope it's the Chinese.

OH Doc your making me hot ! Big grin

The problem ,like Iran is not so much that they will use their nukes ... it just makes them harder to negotiate with. For instance , imagine Iran with a nice nuclear arsenal poised and ready. They become free to use there proxy armies at will .. because hey no ones going to attack Iran with their crazy ass regime who is ready to launch. Same thing with NK ...when they get a real deploy-able nuke ... they can act at will and what can be done to stop them.?

Forget about them nuking us in a preemptive strike ... it just make saber rattling allot more effective. I say take out there launch facilities in a single sweep .... done. B-2 with ALCM's ... A Sub of shore with tomahawk ... no problem ! But thats me ...
 
NAV20
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 3:40 am



Quoting Phoenix9 (Reply 38):
Instead of waging a full scale war on NK, which will be costly in human lives and money, a simple bullet to head can do the job.

Ah - 'the Kennedy solution.'  Smile Hard to believe that anyone can be in favour
killing a guy just because he looks pretty weird and comes over badly on TV? Especially when he's likely to die soon anyway; and would in any case be replaced by one of his three sons, while the ruling clique stays in power?

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 39):
I say take out there launch facilities in a single sweep .... done. B-2 with ALCM's ... A Sub of shore with tomahawk ... no problem !

I suppose that's 'the Truman solution'; or rather, nowadays, 'the Precision solution.' This idea that you can fire large amounts of powerful ordnance with such accuracy that not one civilian will cop it. It's only EVER been like that in the movies.......

No need for any of that with North Korea for a long time yet though - there appears to be nothing to aim at. In point of fact, the only 'launch facilities' they appear to have are a few pads and rigs to launch experimental rockets. Most of those (like the last few they launched) appear to be 'Scud' types - two-stage versions of the WW2 German V2. Nor have they got a bomb yet - so far all they've managed to do is loose off a relatively-small 'device'......

Yet already people are advocating secret murder and massive military aggression......
 
AGM100
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 6:11 am



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 40):
Yet already people are advocating secret murder and massive military aggression......

Ya I know there is no solution I guess ... I know it is alot bigger than NK.
 
dahawaiian
Posts: 229
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 6:53 am

My brother is a medic with the 8th Army in South Korea at the moment. More saber rattling from the madman up north unfortunately. I doubt that wacko is serious about resuming the Korean War, but I have full confidence that the ROK and US forces would crush North Korea if this thing were to go hot.
 
cws818
Posts: 824
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 7:37 am



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 40):
Ah - 'the Kennedy solution.'   Hard to believe that anyone can be in favour
killing a guy just because he looks pretty weird and comes over badly on TV? Especially when he's likely to die soon anyway; and would in any case be replaced by one of his three sons, while the ruling clique stays in power?

Indeed, there's the rub! It's more than looks and elocution, though. The fact that the man is the world's largest gulper of expensive congac and indulges in a personal fetish for all things Hollywood and film, while his population scavenges and starves, is more of a worry about and strike against him. However, there is still that saying about "the devil you know"; horrid though he may be, who can imagine who or what will emerge in his stead from the Pyongyang mists??
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 9:13 am

So when is the Invasion.
 Smile
regds
MEL.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 9:33 am



Quoting BritJap (Reply 24):
As for the question of "Why not Japan?". Well Japan certainly has the intellectual and industrial capacity to develop these weapons. The only thing preventing their development is the Japanese public. Japan maintains one of the strongest non-proliferation stances of any nation. Personally I am happy not to have nukes form part of Japans defence strategy. Their development would not help resolve any problems in this region.

"Why not Japan ?" might also be rephrased as "When did Japan ?"

Japan had not just one but two atomic weapons programs during WW2, one run by the Army, one by the Navy, as neither organisation trusted the other: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_atomic_program (yes, I know Wikipedia is not the most trustworthy source of information, but it gives you a starting point). There is the assertion by both Snell and Wilcox that Japan actually tested some kind of device on or about August 12, 1945 off shore Korea.

There was also a PBS/History Channel special on this that I saw about three years or so ago which IIRC correctly was entitled "Japan's Atomic Bomb" which was based on Wilcox's writings.

See also:
http://wapedia.mobi/en/Japanese_atomic_program

http://www.japanprobe.com/?p=2100

http://www.fortfreedom.org/w08.htm
 
AustrianZRH
Posts: 853
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 9:35 am



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 40):
Nor have they got a bomb yet - so far all they've managed to do is loose off a relatively-small 'device'......

As far as I heard, this device tested this year had something between 10 and 20 kt, comparable to the Hiroshima bomb. What they don't have is a bomb small enough for making it a deliverable warhead or fitting it into an aircraft. What they also don't have is the long range delivery capability. They can easily reach South Korea and Japan with their Scuds, though.

However, I don't think even Kim Jong-Il is crazy enough to actually use his nukes. He's just trying to piss the rest of the world off. Because, as many others have already noted, if he fires a nuke onto a country allied to the US, his single 15 kt nuke can be responded to with 24 Trident missiles with 8 warheads each, depending on configuration with 100 or 475 kt per warhead, from a single Ohio sub. That's not even MAD, that's single-sided assured destruction...
 
airxliban
Posts: 4307
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 10:01 am

I'm a beginniner in the politics of the korean pennisula, but I do wonder what the North Koreans are trying to get out of this as it seems obvious that they are not looking for economic aid. I wonder if the answer is...

Quoting Dahawaiian (Reply 42):
I doubt that wacko is serious about resuming the Korean War, but I have full confidence that the ROK and US forces would crush North Korea if this thing were to go hot.

I wonder if the North is trying to provoke South Korea into joining the Proliferation Security Initiative. Since the DPRK has repeatedly said that South Korea participating in the PSI would be equivalent to a declaration of war, this would give them the pretext to invade and reunite the Korean peninsula.

Am I wrong in suggesting that all that Kim Jong Il would have to be convinced of in order to resume the Korean War is that he could defeat South Korea and the USA? Given that he has twice the number of active service troops and 2.5x the number of reserves, plus nukes, may lead him to believe that he could do this...especially if he assumes that China and Russia are on his side.

Maybe he wants this to be his legacy?

Would China and Russia participate if the Korean war were to resume?

Forgive me for my ignorance on this one - I'm new to this topic and keen to understand more.

None the less I bet that things are tense across the 38th parallel
 
Phoenix9
Posts: 2024
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 12:55 pm



Quoting Dahawaiian (Reply 42):
I doubt that wacko is serious about resuming the Korean War

Well seems like he is:

From The Toronto Star:

SEOUL, south korea – North Korea, facing international censure for this week's nuclear test, threatened today to attack the South after the latter joined a U.S.-led plan to check vessels suspected of carrying equipment for weapons of mass destruction.

Adding to mounting tension in the region, South Korean media reported that Pyongyang had restarted a plant that makes plutonium that can be used in nuclear bombs.


Full article here: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/641074
 
Scotty
Posts: 1846
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RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 1:10 pm

So is this a "FFS" moment then?

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