Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 1:40 pm



Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 46):
As far as I heard, this device tested this year had something between 10 and 20 kt, comparable to the Hiroshima bomb.

According to this story, AustrianZRH, latest analyses suggest that it was nowhere near that powerful - and may not even have worked properly:-

"Article from: The Australian
"NORTH Korea's nuclear explosion on Monday was far smaller than the initial estimate.

"The maximum likely yield of the North Korean device was 4 kilotons (the explosive equivalent of 4000 tonnes of TNT) or less, according to the emerging scientific consensus, rather than the 10-20 kilotons estimated on the day by the Russian Defence Ministry.

"That suggests either Monday's bomb failed to detonate properly, as is now widely believed of the North Koreans' first explosion in 2006, or it was engineered for a much smaller yield than the Hiroshima-style explosions recorded by other nations joining the "nuclear club"."


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...ory/0,25197,25545660-25837,00.html

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 46):
What they also don't have is the long range delivery capability. They can easily reach South Korea and Japan with their Scuds, though.

Not sure that even a Scud (updated V2) could carry a nuke. The original V2 was useless as anything other than a 'terror weapon.' It was literally inaccurate to within 50 miles of the planned target (I KNOW, I happened to be one of the 'unplanned' ones!) and only carried a load of less than a ton. The 1945 A-bombs weighed something like four tons and needed a Lancaster or a B29 to carry them any distance. Maybe modern nukes are somewhat lighter, but even so I think they'd need something a lot better than a souped-up V2 to carry them.

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 46):
However, I don't think even Kim Jong-Il is crazy enough to actually use his nukes. He's just trying to piss the rest of the world off.

Couldn't agree more. He's just grandstanding.
 
Scotty
Posts: 1846
Joined: Thu Dec 23, 1999 10:51 pm

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 3:01 pm

I think "he" ie Kim Jong Il is dead and we are seeing bravado to cover up for the emerging internal crisis because they have no idea what to do next. "We are in deep sh*t here - dont come near us or else"

A dangerous time but the west and its allies should stand back and do nothing that might antagonise the new leadership
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 3:28 pm

Quoting Scotty (Reply 51):
A dangerous time

Maybe he's dead, maybe he's just 'almost dead,' Scotty. But why is it any kind of 'dangerous time'?

I can recall a mercifully-brief time spent facing the Red Army west of the Fulda Gap. As far as we knew, they had MUCH better equipment - our 'retirement age' 25-pounders (in the early '60s) had '1943' stamped on them! But, of course, 'military discipline' required that if we were ever asked what our guns were like, we HAD to say, "Best field-gun in the world, sir.........."

They very well may have been. At any rate, at least they always went off when the layer pressed the button....... But, just from what we read in the 'Daily Mirror,' the Russians appeared to have some pretty advanced stuff of their own. Unfortunately including bigger calibres and longer ranges. Sort of worrying at the time.

Frankly astonishes me that people are actually apprehensive about some sort of attack from North Korea. They're miles, or maybe even the best part of half a century, behind in terms of weaponry. If they ever tried it, they'd be smashed to powder within a few days, if not a few hours.....

Non-issue as far as I'm concerned, I'm afraid. Or rather, perhaps, NOT afraid........

[Edited 2009-05-27 08:41:54]
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Topic Author
Posts: 16579
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 4:36 pm

They're just going nuts with the rhetoric now. You just have to gape in mock wonder and amusement...

North Korea warned Wednesday that any attempt to stop, board or inspect its ships would constitute a "grave violation."

"They should bear in mind that the (North) has tremendous military muscle and its own method of strike able to conquer any targets in its vicinity at one stroke or hit the U.S. on the raw, if necessary," the army said in a statement carried by state media.

...

The truce signed in 1953 and subsequent military agreements call for both sides to refrain from warfare, but doesn't cover the waters off the west coast.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090527/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

They've gone ape! (or nearly, anyway)
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 25777
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 5:02 pm

Inter active map showing how far their missiles can get !!

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor...ctive-Flash-Module/200905415289867

 
AGM100
Posts: 5077
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2003 2:16 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 5:43 pm



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 40):
It's only EVER been like that in the movies.......

Actually not ... it can be done. Flawless , well maybe not but we can put a Tomahawk on those sights no question.

I heard a US Army officer on the Radio speaking of the immense formations of long range artillery that NK has near the DMZ . This officer was saying that the artillery was hardened in bunkers and would be tough to take out. His claim was that NK would bombard Seoul , Redcloud ,Nimble and the other camps with chemical arty shells from these positions. This is a serious threat indeed .. so attacking there missile sights alone becomes very dangerous.

I am curious ... ? What is SK saying about this ? Why don't we here a outcry from the people of SK ?
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Topic Author
Posts: 16579
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 5:49 pm



Quoting AGM100 (Reply 55):
What is SK saying about this ? Why don't we here a outcry from the people of SK ?

There is outcry in SK - you just don't hear about it stateside because US news is absolute crap at reporting what goes on elsewhere unless it's something of immediate connection to the domestic audience or White House agenda.

Generally speaking, conservatives in SK are pissed and are tired of the incessant threats that go unpunished. Moderates and the current SK government are urging restraint and are happy to follow US and UN lead on the matter.

 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13899
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:25 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 7:46 pm



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 50):
The 1945 A-bombs weighed something like four tons and needed a Lancaster or a B29 to carry them any distance. Maybe modern nukes are somewhat lighter, but even so I think they'd need something a lot better than a souped-up V2 to carry them.

Actually small nukes have been around since the 1950s (Davy Crocket, to be fired from a recoiless, jeep portable gun, the "Atomic Anny" cannon). Today nukes fit into 115 mm artillery shells and can be fired from a M109 selfpropelled howitzer, other uses are man-portable nuclear demolition charges, which fit into a large rucksack.
But to get the size and weight down into these dimension takes serious technology.
I assume that the current NK nuclear device is a simple gun type uranium bomb, as used in Hiroshima. The nuclear bombs manufactured by the former South African nuclear arms programme were of similar design because it is cheap and simple and almost foolproof. The disadvantage of this design is that gun type bombs are inherently unsafe, if due to some accident the conventional propellant charge explodes, it will automatically trigger a full yield nuclear explosion. This is why the Americans only built about 10 of these bombs and scrapped them as soon as improved and much safer to handle plutonium implosion type bombs were available in the late 1940s.
To manufacture a plutonium bomb doesn't just require knowledge about working with the highly toxic and metallurgically difficult to handle plutonium (just check the properties of Pu on Wikipedia), the fissible material must also be very pure Pu239, traces of Pu240 will make it fail.
Then the explosive charges required for the compression of the core must have specific and very exact shapes and detonation velocities, also the various charges must be detonated at exactly the same moment to create the spherical shock wave to compress to core to critical condition. In short, building a plutonium bomb is not easy, a small one, which would fit into a missle would be even more difficult.
IMO, the biggest danger would come from a gun type bomb smuggled somewhere into the US, SK or Japan and hidden in a city to be blown up terrorist style.
Since Air Koryo nowadays flies to very few countries, the smuggling would most likely happen by ship, in so far the US /SK approach to control shipping in and out of NK would make sense.

Jan
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22270
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 8:01 pm



Quoting AGM100 (Reply 39):

Forget about them nuking us in a preemptive strike ... it just make saber rattling allot more effective. I say take out there launch facilities in a single sweep .... done. B-2 with ALCM's ... A Sub of shore with tomahawk ... no problem ! But thats me ...

See, but why? THat will just make them launch something.

Back off, don't negotiate, and let China handle it. All of China is within striking distance. We aren't. China has a lot more incentive to nip this in the bud than we do.
 
TheCol
Posts: 1857
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 9:30 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 9:18 pm



Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 46):
However, I don't think even Kim Jong-Il is crazy enough to actually use his nukes.

Don't bet on it. This guy is, at the present time, probably the looniest dictator in the entire world. Heck, he's probably loonier than Stalin was when he was on his deathbed.

Quoting Scotty (Reply 51):

No, if Kim was dead and there was a power struggle going on, South Korean and Japanese intelligence would have picked up on it by now. Events like that are too big to cover up.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 57):
IMO, the biggest danger would come from a gun type bomb smuggled somewhere into the US, SK or Japan and hidden in a city to be blown up terrorist style.
Since Air Koryo nowadays flies to very few countries, the smuggling would most likely happen by ship, in so far the US /SK approach to control shipping in and out of NK would make sense.

 checkmark 

It wouldn't be a stretch for them to sell the nukes and get the terrorists to do the dirty work. Most people think that would be a strategic error on Kim's part, but just think of the huge disadvantage we would be at if that scenario ever played out. Not to mention the fact that he's going to die soon anyway.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 58):
Back off, don't negotiate, and let China handle it. All of China is within striking distance. We aren't. China has a lot more incentive to nip this in the bud than we do.

 checkmark 

I agree, China wouldn't have much of a choice in the matter. The facts are pretty strait forward:

A. If China wants to convince everyone that they are a world superpower, then they can’t let a madman try to start a nuclear war in their own backyard. It would make China look weak and afraid, and we all know how much they hate to lose face.

B. There is no way in hell China wants US and friends sitting across the fence with a very large arsenal.

C. If there is going to be a huge refugee problem, China would prefer if they controlled it themselves.

D. Any potential power struggle, as a result of a breakdown/abrupt removal of the current leadership in North Korea, is a threat to China’s interests as well. You can bet they’ll want in on that one way or another.
 
AGM100
Posts: 5077
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2003 2:16 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 9:20 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 58):
Back off, don't negotiate, and let China handle it.

Agreed , but here is the question. Do NK and China share common enemies? .. Is it in China's regional interest to normalize NK . One would think that it is .. but really what has China done to stop NK?. China always blocks UNSC sanctions and veto's any measure that is intended to punish them . Why ? Is China afraid of retaliatory action by NK ?? that seems very unlikely . So what is to be concluded by China's out right protection of the KJI regime ?
 
B2443
Posts: 588
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2004 2:28 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 9:59 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 58):
Back off, don't negotiate, and let China handle it. All of China is within striking distance. We aren't. China has a lot more incentive to nip this in the bud than we do.

Okay let China handle it with what price? No free dinner here. Besides, S Korea and Japan are also within the striking distance. And according to US-Japan, US-S Korea military 'treaties', the U.S. is responsible for 'protecting' the two countries, just as repeated by Hilary Clinton.

China really doesn't have all that many incentives as you may think. Losing facing isn't worth a thing. Really what are the incentives for China as China continues to be harrassed/challenged in the South China Sea, East China Sea by the U.S. and its allies? And why in the hell would N Korea attack China?
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Wed May 27, 2009 10:08 pm



Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 57):
The disadvantage of this design is that gun type bombs are inherently unsafe, if due to some accident the conventional propellant charge explodes, it will automatically trigger a full yield nuclear explosion. This is why the Americans only built about 10 of these bombs and scrapped them as soon as improved and much safer to handle plutonium implosion type bombs were available in the late 1940s.

Back up a little here. Gun-type bombs are not necessarily inherently unsafe, as they can be armed in flight. Obviously you can't do this on a missile, but gun-type bombs are so heavy (because they're so inefficient) that you'd never put one on a missile. By the way, there are implosion-type uranium bombs which are much more efficient and light, that can rest atop a missile.

Implosion-type weapons were available right from the start. Trinity was a tower-mounted test of 'Fat Man' (Nagasaki), to give confidence that the damned thing would work. It also revealed the early implosion bombs' weakness: the firing circuitry was so complex that it had to be armed on the ground. Ergo, had 'Bock's Car' had an engine failure on t/o from Tinian, there may well have been a big bright flash. In that respect at least, early days, gun-type bombs were safer.

NK are using Pu in their devices, taken from the reactor at Yongbyon. The fact that the evident yield in their two tests to date leads me to believe they are having timing problems in the firing circuitry that leads to asymmetrical shockwaves. First one was an almost total fizzle (significantly < 1 kt), second one something in the 3-5 kt range. I'd expect them to do better when/if there is a third test.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Thu May 28, 2009 4:34 am



Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 57):
IMO, the biggest danger would come from a gun type bomb smuggled somewhere into the US, SK or Japan and hidden in a city to be blown up terrorist style.
Since Air Koryo nowadays flies to very few countries, the smuggling would most likely happen by ship, in so far the US /SK approach to control shipping in and out of NK would make sense.

By coincidence, the notion of shipborne nukes is about to celebrate its seventieth birthday.  Smile On 3rd. August 1939 Einstein wrote to Roosevelt warning of the possibility of atomic bombs being developed, and said in his letter:-

"A single bomb of this type, carried by boat and exploded in a port, might very well destroy the whole port together with some of the surrounding territory. However, such bombs might very well prove to be too heavy for transportation by air."

http://hypertextbook.com/eworld/einstein.shtml#first

Personally, I have severe doubts about the feasibility of assembling an entire crew of willing suiciders, with the skills and accreditations required to navigate a ship from North Korea to say California, and then blow it up. Finding and training just three people with the motivation and skills required to fly airliners into huge buildings looks to have been difficult enough.  Smile

Einstein was actually wrong, of course. The British were already developing four-engined bombers capable of carrying the expected weight of atomic bombs. As an aside that I hope is interesting, a scientist called Norman F. Ramsey had to display 'conspicuous gallantry' in 1943 on this issue.

He was head of the Delivery Group of the Manhattan Project, and had the job of telling the fearsome General Leslie R. Groves that the United States did not have any bombers in service that could carry either type of bomb any distance; and that the B29, then in development, might not be ready for service in time, and (being a midwing design) would require drastic modification to enable it to carry either type of bomb, particularly 'Fat Man.'

Then he rather unwisely said that it was no problem, as the British already had a bomber (the Avro Lancaster) in service that could do the job, and was already in production in Toronto, among other places........

Groves 'went incandescent' at the thought of having to use a non-US aeroplane and went all the way up to Arnold and Roosevelt to 'lean on' Boeing to get the B29 ready in time.  Smile

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 62):
fact that the evident yield in their two tests to date leads me to believe they are having timing problems in the firing circuitry that leads to asymmetrical shockwaves.

Thanks, Connies4ever. I'd forgotten how precisely the implosion charges had to be positioned and synchronised. That pretty well has to be the reason for the poor results that NK is achieving so far. And suggests that they are still a long way from developing a practical weapon.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Topic Author
Posts: 16579
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

RE: North Korea Claims Underground Nuke Test

Fri May 29, 2009 11:56 am

North Korea test-fired yet another short range missile today, and insisted it will retaliate if the UN security council further provokes them:

"If the U.N. Security Council makes a further provocation, it will be inevitable for us to take further self-defense measures," the North's Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

North Korea also accused the Security Council of hypocrisy.

"There is a limit to our patience," the statement said. "The nuclear test conducted in our nation this time is the Earth's 2,054th nuclear test. The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council have conducted 99.99 percent of the total nuclear tests."


Chinese boats have left the area, possibly to avoid starting any problems in the disputed waters around North Korea.  crazy 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090529/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 1337Delta764, FlapOperator, TriJets and 36 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos