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Falcon84
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Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 2:56 pm

This eyewitness account to the violence in Tehran doesn't say that, but I ask the question. With the increasing violence, especially in Tehran, is that nation on the verge of Civil War? Have many of the average people simply had enough of Ahmadinejad and the hard-liners that have put Iran at odds with the rest of the world?

I have no idea if this muse is true, but what is your opinion? What are the possible consequences not just for Iran, but for Iraq, as it struggles to be independent again? For Israel, as it faces a possible nuclear-armed Iran? For the world?
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rfields5421
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 3:05 pm



Quoting Falcon84 (Thread starter):
With the increasing violence, especially in Tehran, is that nation on the verge of Civil War? Have many of the average people simply had enough of Ahmadinejad and the hard-liners that have put Iran at odds with the rest of the world?

I seriously doubt anything will happen beyond a few protests, some arrests and executions.

The fellow who opposed Ahmadinejad is a pretty hard-line right winger himself. If he was elected, there was not much prospect of change on the social/ individual freedom front.

The issues focused on the economy and what Ahmadinejad had 'not done' and what the opponent proposed to do.

The issues did not focus on foreign policy, though Ahmadinejad was criticized for spending more time focused on 'enemies' and not spending time working on the domestic economy.
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rfields5421
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 3:12 pm



Quoting Falcon84 (Thread starter):
What are the possible consequences not just for Iran, but for Iraq, as it struggles to be independent again?

While Iran and Iraq share a common religion, they do not share an ethnic heritage. They do not share a cultural heritage, nor a political view of religion and it's place in government.

And a lot of people on both sides remember the bitter war and are not forgiving.

Iran and Iraq as neighbors with a testy tension filled relationship - that is the future in my opinion rather than united in a common cause.
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Dreadnought
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 3:22 pm

While I hear a lot of protest about the elections and Ahmightgetajob, I have not heard a lot of protesting in Iran against the true obstacle to progress - the religious leaders at the top. In other words, even if there is a sort of velvet revolution that gets the current president to step down and a new guy to step in, as long as those Ayatollah's are in place, nothing will substantially change, IMHO.

Nothing would please me more than than the Iranian people throwing down the Ayatollahs. An Iran without them, and without a monarchy, would truely be a godsend, and is already used to some form of democracy. A democratic Iran next to a democratic Iraq would truely be a great step forward in GW Bush's dream of having democracies spread through the region (a dream that sceptics here scorned), infecting the theocracies and dictatorships around them.
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Arrow
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 3:38 pm



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):
A democratic Iran next to a democratic Iraq would truely be a great step forward in GW Bush's dream of having democracies spread through the region (a dream that sceptics here scorned), infecting the theocracies and dictatorships around them.

Yes, wouldn't that be nice. But the west has been trying to make that happen (in a brutally ham-fisted way) for nearly 100 years now with nothing to show for it. I wouldn't bet money on it happening now.
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sw733
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 3:48 pm

Civil war is a bit extreme for some post-election protests. I'm not sure if this election was rigged or not, I'll leave that out, but it's common everywhere (even America) for people to cry foul when their guy loses. I bet in 2 weeks (or less) you won't even remember Iran just had an election.

Quoting Falcon84 (Thread starter):
but for Iraq, as it struggles to be independent again?

Iraq was always independent...I know what you mean, but technically, they never lost their independence...
 
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yowza
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 3:49 pm



Quoting Arrow (Reply 4):


Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):
A democratic Iran next to a democratic Iraq would truely be a great step forward in GW Bush's dream of having democracies spread through the region (a dream that sceptics here scorned), infecting the theocracies and dictatorships around them.

Yes, wouldn't that be nice. But the west has been trying to make that happen (in a brutally ham-fisted way) for nearly 100 years now with nothing to show for it. I wouldn't bet money on it happening now.

I agree, true democracy in either - let alone both - is not anywhere close to being on the cards.

As for democracy "spreading" through the region I think we all know that that is not going to happen any time soon. All the way form Oman to Libya the entire Arab world is rife with dictators and royal families that lead with irons fists. The power and money that go hand in hand with being top dog in the region will see to it that this does not change. Beyond that the west, currently in the rocky climbs of recession, will not want to do anything to interrupt oil supplies that might exacerbate an already bad economic situation.


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EA772LR
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 3:59 pm

I think so. It's sad, because I know the people, the citizens of Iran, at least the majority, don't want Ahmadinejad as the face of their country. I eat at an Iranian restaurant regularly, and often speak with the owners about it, and they can't stand Ahmadinejad, and they say most Iranians can't either. I kind of hope that there finally is a democratic uprising and they boot Ahmadinejad to the curb. A stable democratic Iran, combined with the increasingly stable Iraq could do wonders for the Middle East. Maybe this is just wishful thinking...
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yowza
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:06 pm



Quoting EA772LR (Reply 7):
I know the people, the citizens of Iran, at least the majority, don't want Ahmadinejad as the face of their country.

That's a bold statement. Care to qualify how you know what the majority of Iranians are thinking?

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 7):
I eat at an Iranian restaurant regularly, and often speak with the owners about it, and they can't stand Ahmadinejad

I don't know that an exile/expatriate Iranian offers the most balanced view.

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 7):
I kind of hope that there finally is a democratic uprising and they boot Ahmadinejad to the curb.

Well the problem in Iranian is not just Crazy A, it's the underlying Islamic fundaMENTALists that regulate power and set the tone and foreign policy. Yes Crazy A mouths off, yes he has a bark to him but it's the base he sits on that's the real problem. If you want to democratize and "fix" Iran that would be the place to start.

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 7):
Maybe this is just wishful thinking..

Yup, it is.

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sw733
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:09 pm



Quoting EA772LR (Reply 7):
I eat at an Iranian restaurant regularly, and often speak with the owners about it, and they can't stand Ahmadinejad, and they say most Iranians can't either

As YOWza says, they left Iran for a reason...if you ask a bunch of Indians about India they might say bad things, because that's why they left; same goes for Bangladeshi's, Chinese, Nigerians, Ukrainians, etc. etc. They left for a reason...

Ahmadinejad is and always has been very popular with the working class. He really did great things...I followed the last election, when he campaigned on streets for better jobs and education while his opponent was chauffeured around in a Mercedes, and I have to say I would have voted for him.
 
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:43 pm

BREAKING NEWS: AP photographer sees pro-government militia fire at protesters, killing at least 1

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31365097/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/

Also, the new book by Bob Baer, The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower is worth a read if your interested in potential scenarios Iran is capable of.
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:49 pm



Quoting SW733 (Reply 9):
Ahmadinejad is and always has been very popular with the working class. He really did great things...I followed the last election, when he campaigned on streets for better jobs and education while his opponent was chauffeured around in a Mercedes, and I have to say I would have voted for him.

You might say that it's understandable, but that's no excuse. Adolf Hitler also was popular with the working classes, and pushed the country to make tremendous strides in certain fields like infrastructure and the sciences. That does not negate the fact that he was a murderous nutjob.
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EA772LR
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:56 pm



Quoting YOWza (Reply 8):
That's a bold statement. Care to qualify how you know what the majority of Iranians are thinking?



Quoting YOWza (Reply 8):
I don't know that an exile/expatriate Iranian offers the most balanced view.

Well I tend to trust the opinions of 3 Iranian citizens (some former, some current) on the views of Iran rather than any media source. If that doesn't qualify my comments, I don't know what does.

Quoting YOWza (Reply 8):

Well the problem in Iranian is not just Crazy A, it's the underlying Islamic fundaMENTALists that regulate power and set the tone and foreign policy. Yes Crazy A mouths off, yes he has a bark to him but it's the base he sits on that's the real problem. If you want to democratize and "fix" Iran that would be the place to start.

Sure, I know the real power lies with the Ayatollah, but I know there is a significant population, especially with the upcoming younger population, that wants democracy and isn't as extreme as the fundamentalist regime currently in place. I think it is a matter of time before the extreme side is Islam is pushed aside for good. The world will not stand by while a minority part of Islam terrorizes.

Quoting SW733 (Reply 9):
As YOWza says, they left Iran for a reason...if you ask a bunch of Indians about India they might say bad things, because that's why they left; same goes for Bangladeshi's, Chinese, Nigerians, Ukrainians, etc. etc. They left for a reason...

But that is precisely the point. These Iranian guys I speak with don't say bad things about Iran. They left for opportunity to make money and were attracted by the 'American Dream'. I am just careful to judge a country by the face of it's political power. If that's the case, then America certainly isn't the land of opportunity...
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MadameConcorde
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:57 pm

A few links to stories both sides considered


Iran Riots Over Election Fraud Claims
http://www.associatedcontent.com/art..._election_fraud_claims.html?cat=62
June 14, 2009 by Mark Whittington

Street Battles in Tehran, Other Iranian Cities

Iranian supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi greeted reports that Mousavi's opponent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, had won the Iranian elections by rioting in the streets in protest of what many view as a rigged election.


'Death to the dictator' chants fuel Tehran riot
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/worl...uel-tehran-riot-20090615-c7kx.html
Colin Freeman in Tehran
June 15, 2009

VALIASR AVENUE stretches 20 kilometres from the very north of Tehran to the very south, and is said to be the longest street in the Middle East. In the past week it earned another claim to fame: as a gathering point for supporters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the reformist challenger who had been tipped to unseat the President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in last Friday's election.


Foreign media say Iran blocking coverage of protests
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...ALeqM5hpy1TiemIsKmu6FEgv42JU5swSxw
June 14, 2009

BERLIN (AFP) — Several foreign news organisations complained Sunday that Iranian authorities were blocking their reporters from covering protests against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election.


Tehran street resembles war zone after violent protests against 'rigged' polls
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article....id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=103044
Monday, June 15, 2009

TEHRAN: A few days ago Tehran's most famous boulevard was alive with joy and celebration as supporters of moderate presidential candidate Mirhossein Mousavi vented their desire for social and political change in Iran. Last night, tree-lined Vali-ye Asr avenue had turned into a smoldering battle-zone after widespread clashes sparked by his election defeat to hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, an outcome which Mousavi denounced as a "dangerous charade."
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yowza
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:05 pm



Quoting EA772LR (Reply 12):
Well I tend to trust the opinions of 3 Iranian citizens (some former, some current) on the views of Iran rather than any media source. If that doesn't qualify my comments, I don't know what does.

My point was each man should speak for himself. That is a hallmark of the democracy you are advocating for Iran. The words of three expat Iranians is not exactly a balanced view and under democratic terms is not a fair empirical sample determining the will of the people.

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 12):
I think it is a matter of time before the extreme side is Islam is pushed aside for good. The world will not stand by while a minority part of Islam terrorizes.

How many countries right now are battling with Islamic extremism both in and out of political office? That list is not short and most of the world seems to be just letting it happen and has been for about 50 years. Now the "nuclear threat" may be more of a call to action (in Iran's case) but that aside I have no doubt the powers that be are willing to see where the bus stops before they elect to shoot the driver.

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sw733
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:18 pm



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 11):
You might say that it's understandable, but that's no excuse. Adolf Hitler also was popular with the working classes, and pushed the country to make tremendous strides in certain fields like infrastructure and the sciences. That does not negate the fact that he was a murderous nutjob.

I am by no means an apologist for Hitler, nor did I ever even think of considering Hitler in this argument...I think Mahmoud has a LONG way to go before becoming Hitler...
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:28 pm



Quoting SW733 (Reply 15):
I am by no means an apologist for Hitler, nor did I ever even think of considering Hitler in this argument...I think Mahmoud has a LONG way to go before becoming Hitler...

Sorry, I was not trying to accuse you of that. But I think people need to pay a little more attantion to what people say. It should not have been any surprise to anyone that Hitler did what he did - he laid it out quite plainly in Mein Kampf. And neither should we ignore Ahmightgetajob's comments about exterminating Israel. Apologists keep saying, "Oh, that's just for internal press consumption" and act all surprised when they actually do it.

You say that Ahmightgetajob has a long way to go. Not anymore. He is "this close" to having nuclear weapons, and we know that he has missile technology that will reach Israel. Once in place he can accomplish 6 million Jewish deaths within 20 minutes. If the man says he's going to do it over and over again, I think we need to take him at his word that he means it.
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sw733
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:35 pm



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 16):

Sorry, I was not trying to accuse you of that.

I know you were not, and I did not take it personally, no worries mate.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 16):
It should not have been any surprise to anyone that Hitler did what he did

As a history buff, I agree.
 
EA772LR
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 6:06 pm



Quoting YOWza (Reply 14):
How many countries right now are battling with Islamic extremism both in and out of political office? That list is not short and most of the world seems to be just letting it happen and has been for about 50 years. Now the "nuclear threat" may be more of a call to action (in Iran's case) but that aside I have no doubt the powers that be are willing to see where the bus stops before they elect to shoot the driver.

I have to agree YOWza  checkmark 
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zak
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 7:27 pm

surely looks like civil war to me
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AirframeAS
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 7:38 pm

I say let them have their war. It is about time that Ahmedajjhdfhdsajd is ousted from Iran's government. If the other guy won the election, then why is Ahdjfdkjfdsjfjd declaring victory?? Does he even have the power to void the election?
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 9:07 pm

Fatal Shooting' At Tehran Protest Rally

One person has reportedly been killed and several wounded in the Iranian capital Tehran where tens of thousands of people gathered to protest the result of the country's general election.
A photographer at the scene said several people were shot - one fatally so - when members of a pro-government militia fired into the crowd.
Some protesters were earlier said to have tried to attack a building belonging to the Basij militia in central Tehran.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor...otest_Ban_Over_Ahmadinejad_Victory
 
EA772LR
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Mon Jun 15, 2009 9:38 pm



Quoting OA260 (Reply 21):

The Iranian people as a whole are tired of the Extremist Islamic Cleric rule. Perhaps this is the kick in the ass needed to get that country headed down a straighter path.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 20):
I say let them have their war. It is about time that Ahmedajjhdfhdsajd is ousted from Iran's government.

 checkmark   checkmark 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Tue Jun 16, 2009 12:25 am



Quoting EA772LR (Reply 22):
The Iranian people as a whole are tired of the Extremist Islamic Cleric rule.

The clerics might be extremists, but they're not morons. If they truly believe a popular uprising might be in the works, they'll try to get on the right side of this issue by declaring they "discovered" there truly was fraud in the election and kick Ahmadinejad out of office.

This way they stay in power while getting to play the "noble, wise statesmen" card and keep the general public happy with them in control.
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Yellowstone
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Tue Jun 16, 2009 12:59 am



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 16):
If the man says he's going to do it over and over again, I think we need to take him at his word that he means it.

You may think the semantic difference is insignificant, but I still think its meaningful that Ahmedinejad has never directly threatened to destroy Israel. Sure, he has condemned Israel, and said that it should be destroyed, but he has never come out and said that Iran will destroy Israel.
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jcs17
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Tue Jun 16, 2009 1:04 am

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the mullahs will be overthrown in the next few days. This is for a multitude of reasons, first and foremost, that the opposition really has no power base to speak of. Millions of Iranians have taken to the streets, but they're armed with rocks and molotov cocktails, not quite a match for an AK-47 fired by the Revolutionary Guards, foreign Hezbollah militants, or the Basij. It would take the defection of the Iranian Army to the opposition in order to oust the mullahs or begin some sort of bigger issue for Ahmedinejad to deal with.

Another problem is that, technically, a lot of these protesters simply want Mousavi installed as President -- not necessarily an overthrow of the entire regime. Although many of them do want an end to the theocracy. You have to remember that Mousavi was part of those 1% of candidates allowed by the mullahs to run for President. Hence, he's simply more palatable version of the thuggery that currently run the country. I don't think there is the required anger at the entire regime, mullahs and all, to really start a problem. They hate Ahmedinejad, sure, but they need to hate the regime as a whole.

I, for one, would love to see the theocracy tumble. Iranians deserve better, but I'm not sure they realize they truly do.
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Tue Jun 16, 2009 1:08 am

To me, Khamenei's call for a review of the results are just a stalling tactic. Something tells me that the hardliners in Iran don't want to lose any power at all, which could be a reason why they want to keep Ahmadinejad around.

In any case, something tells me there is electoral fraud involved, especially considering the conflicting results that came out on election day.

As for the possiblity of civil war, I doubt it will happen, at least as long as the Islamic dictatorship (the Guardian Council, the Supreme Leader, etc.) keeps control over the military (Armed Forces and the Revolutionary Guards). Otherwise, if there is a split in the military, perhaps then there is a possibility of civil war, but like I said, I sincerely doubt it will happen.
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EA772LR
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Tue Jun 16, 2009 4:25 am



Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 23):
The clerics might be extremists, but they're not morons. If they truly believe a popular uprising might be in the works, they'll try to get on the right side of this issue by declaring they "discovered" there truly was fraud in the election and kick Ahmadinejad out of office.

This way they stay in power while getting to play the "noble, wise statesmen" card and keep the general public happy with them in control.

Sadly, you're probably right. But that still doesn't change the fact that the majority of the Iranian people don't want the same fundamentalist rule they've been oppressed under. (see protests)
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EA CO AS
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Tue Jun 16, 2009 5:35 am



Quoting LTU932 (Reply 26):
In any case, something tells me there is electoral fraud involved, especially considering the conflicting results that came out on election day.

News wires are reporting this very issue - the fact that over 40 million HANDWRITTEN ballots were counted and a winner declared in a manner of hours is in itself suspicious.
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slider
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Tue Jun 16, 2009 3:11 pm



Quoting SW733 (Reply 5):
I'm not sure if this election was rigged or not, I'll leave that out, but it's common everywhere (even America) for people to cry foul when their guy loses.

Don’t know about rigged, but I find it rather curious that they announced the winner with 62% of the vote a mere few hours after the election, and did a manual hand counting.

Hell, we can’t even do that. Then again, elections in Iran might have more integrity than in the USA given that we had ACORN, dead people, and the like all engaging in vote fraud.
 
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Tue Jun 16, 2009 3:30 pm



Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 24):
but I still think its meaningful that Ahmedinejad has never directly threatened to destroy Israel. Sure, he has condemned Israel, and said that it should be destroyed, but he has never come out and said that Iran will destroy Israel.

If Chas urges taking him at his word, he should not traduce what the idiot says. Stating that a country should not exist is cunningly not the same as threatening to destroy it, but who cares what he said when we all know what we want him to have said.

Anyway, nice that there were all of 10 posts before Godwin's Rule of Nazi Analogies struck!
 
AirframeAS
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Wed Jun 17, 2009 6:10 pm

It seems like the protests are still going on in Tahran. Protesters are defying curfews set by the government and they want the journalists out of Iran. WTH?!

What is the point to an election if it is not fair?

Quoting Slider (Reply 29):
but I find it rather curious that they announced the winner with 62% of the vote a mere few hours after the election, and did a manual hand counting.

In the US, it would take weeks...if not a month...to determine the election results and produce a winner. I think this election was rigged by Ahmedjihad.... But I have no proof. I am only basing this on the reputation that Ahmedijaydhed has at the moment.....
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Venus6971
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Wed Jun 17, 2009 6:51 pm



Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 28):
News wires are reporting this very issue - the fact that over 40 million HANDWRITTEN ballots were counted and a winner declared in a manner of hours is in itself suspicious.

These guys are giving Chicago Politicians a bad name. Iran has a very young and very educated tech savvy population and this gives me hope that the population in future will not let the Islamic hardliners drag them and the rest of the region to destruction.
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EA772LR
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:21 pm



Quoting Venus6971 (Reply 32):

These guys are giving Chicago Politicians a bad name. Iran has a very young and very educated tech savvy population and this gives me hope that the population in future will not let the Islamic hardliners drag them and the rest of the region to destruction.

 checkmark   checkmark  As unsupported as my optimism may be, it is encouraging to see so many Iranian people hungry for change. The people are using Mir-Hossein Mousavi as a reason to rise up. They are ready for real democracy and are sick of living under the Ayatollah and the extreme Muslim rule.
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:38 pm

Iranian football team wears green armbands to support Mousavi at Seoul World Cup qualifier
Players on the Iranian national football team took advantage of a World Cup football qualifier in Seoul to denounce their government amid allegations of election rigging at home.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-at-Seoul-World-Cup-qualifier.html



 
EA772LR
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:02 pm



Quoting OA260 (Reply 34):
Iranian football team wears green armbands to support Mousavi at Seoul World Cup qualifier
Players on the Iranian national football team took advantage of a World Cup football qualifier in Seoul to denounce their government amid allegations of election rigging at home.

Mousavi is no angel, but at least the Iranians can use him as a tool to send a message that they want change.
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
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OA260
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 2:36 pm

A bomb has exploded in Tehran at the shrine of Iran's revolutionary founder as thousands of people protest at the result of the country's election, reports say.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor...testers_In_Tehran%2C_Witnesses_Say
 
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Aaron747
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 3:01 pm

Hard to know what's true from the Twitter and blogosphere but Andrew Sullivan is keeping a running posting going all day, every day here:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/

The morning's reports are grim, to say the least.
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Zentraedi
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 3:11 pm

Looks as if the government has put its foot down and nothing will come of the these protests....
 
Venus6971
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 7:14 pm



Quoting Zentraedi (Reply 38):
Looks as if the government has put its foot down and nothing will come of the these protests....

Looking at the Sullivan blog I think the Genie is out of the bottle and somebody broke the the bottle. This is for the Iranian people to sort out, If it gets out of hand how will the Iranian Armed forces side they will come down on. Are the senior officers all politically correct and loyal to the Mullahs, will the junior enlisted and officer corp follow orders to gun down unarmed civilians. Does the Iranian militray have iron will discipline to follow any order no matter how horrible just like the Chinese during Tiniamen. Stay tuned .
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us330
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 7:21 pm

Interesting interview with Fareed Zakaria:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/.../zakaria.iran.elections/index.html

Quoting Falcon84 (Thread starter):
Have many of the average people simply had enough of Ahmadinejad and the hard-liners that have put Iran at odds with the rest of the world?

I have no idea if this muse is true, but what is your opinion? What are the possible consequences not just for Iran, but for Iraq, as it struggles to be independent again? For Israel, as it faces a possible nuclear-armed Iran? For the world?

I never thought I would actually say this in the wake of Obama's "apology tour," but I have actually been impressed by the way the state department and the U.S. Government is handling this situation--namely, by being pretty hands off and letting things develop on their own.

The reality is that we don't really know what is going on and what all the potential implications are of these riots and protests. It could be the start of a new Iranian Revolution, but it could also just be a temporary release of general Iranian frustration (the Iranian economy is performing horrendously right now, and I believe their unemployment rate is between 25-30%), and things could be back to how they were in a year.

Some analysts have even said that it would have actually been better off for the U.S. if Ahmadinejad would have won--as he is a "known" entity--versus Mousavvi, who, relative to Ahmadinejad is a reformer, but whose core political beliefs are still pretty similar to that of his rival. It's hardly analgous to the Shah versus the Ayatollah.

The best thing that the U.S. and the West can do is to stay out of this. Since WWII, the West (mainly the U.S.) has made an embarrassing habit of brutally misreading the Iranian political situation, first with Mossadegh, and then with the Shah. We can ill afford to whiff again this time, especially with the potential for Iran to build nuclear weapons.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):
. A democratic Iran next to a democratic Iraq would truely be a great step forward in GW Bush's dream of having democracies spread through the region (a dream that sceptics here scorned), infecting the theocracies and dictatorships around them

Without going too much off on a tangent, I don't think it was Bush's idea that people scorned, it was the way that he went about them. In fact, the rationale behind the Bush Doctrine (spreading democracy to the Middle East to combat terrorism) actually has some pretty solid theoretical and factual backing in political science and theory--namely, that democracies have never gone to war with one another. But I digress...
 
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:20 pm



Quoting Us330 (Reply 40):

I totally agree the US should stay out of this. It sickens me to watch the news and listen to them and people calling in to complain that we aren't doing anything. My gut tells me that these are the same people that would be complaining if we were. They don't care what we do, it is a lose-lose for us. All they want to do it bitch.  Angry

Kudos to Obama for sticking to the sidelines.
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Blackbird
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:00 pm

I just hope this doesn't end up erupting into a war that we end up having to get involved in.

Because if that happens we'll see way more of those Private Military Companies (i.e. Mercenary outfits) which I seriously disapprove of, and/or we'll going to need a draft.

I have a very dim view of drafts and If a draft occurs, in most likelyhood they will draft both men and women, and from what I remember hearing during the build up to the Iraq war in 2002, they would limit college deferments to age 20, and would work with Canada to ensure that people cannot run to Canada to evade the draft (The way it would work is Canada would ask the US if the person heading across the border was a draftee, if so, they wouldn't let them into Canada).


Blackbird
 
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stasisLAX
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:09 pm



Quoting JetsGo (Reply 41):
I totally agree the US should stay out of this

The US must stay out of it. The American and the British have toyed with the Iranian government too much in the past (the CIA fueled coup that overthrew a democratically elected Iranian government in the 1950's and then the US' steadfast support of the brutal Shah's regime in the 1970's).....  ziplip 
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:35 pm



Quoting Us330 (Reply 40):
Without going too much off on a tangent, I don't think it was Bush's idea that people scorned, it was the way that he went about them. In fact, the rationale behind the Bush Doctrine (spreading democracy to the Middle East to combat terrorism) actually has some pretty solid theoretical and factual backing in political science and theory--namely, that democracies have never gone to war with one another. But I digress...

People scorned everything about Bush because it was Bush. He could have stated that the sky is blue and some people would be found protesting that statement. I don't think it is a digression. Iranians have seen that the Iraqis have had legitimate elections, the Afghans have had legitimate elections (both thanks to American intervention), and have started to wonder, "Why can't we?".

That said, I have no illusions about Mousavi. He's hardly any better than the nutjob he's trying to replace, and is backed by Rafsanjani, who is highly corrupt. The bright side to all this is that there is a chance, a small chance, that the ruling theocracy might fall. That is a goal that I think everyone would be happy to see.

As far as the US getting involved, I agree that we cannot get involved. Obama has been very cautious in his statements, and I can understand that, but I would like to see him use his gift of rhetoric against the powers that be in subtle ways. Little digs at the ruling theocracy, hinting that their downfall might bring about an invitation to Iran to join the small but growing number of democracies in the Middle East, opening the way to full diplomatic relations with the US and possibly an end to all embargos, a return of any Iranian assets which the US still has since 1979. Nothing forceful, but soft-spoken little hints that indicate that if the theocrats go, we will be willing to turn over a new leaf if they are.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:50 pm

if Rafsanjani has his way then change will come...this is a power struggle between him and Khamenei.
 
Yellowstone
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:03 pm



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 44):
People scorned everything about Bush because it was Bush.

Which is pretty much exactly what US330 said. Bush had a way of doing foreign policy that tended to offend foreign countries. If Bush had had Obama's tact, he probably would have been more successful at convincing other countries of the value of his positions.
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Dreadnought
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:42 am



Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 46):
Which is pretty much exactly what US330 said. Bush had a way of doing foreign policy that tended to offend foreign countries.

I don't buy that. He bent over backwards to get nations to go along in the UN, and got stabbed in the back for his efforts.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
Yellowstone
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:57 am



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 47):
I don't buy that. He bent over backwards to get nations to go along in the UN, and got stabbed in the back for his efforts.

It goes both ways. If most of the rest of the world won't go along with your plan, it's probably not that the world has a personal grudge against you--it's that they don't think your plan will work. In that case, the solution isn't to keep asking for help, it's to modify your goals so as to win more support. Looking at the specific case US330 mentioned, the problem was not the idea that we want the Middle East to have more democracies. It was Bush's approach to the problem that turned people off; most other countries realized that you couldn't just topple the current government and expect a democratic one to spring up in its place, not in a part of the world with no history of democracy. The will for change has to come from within, and not be seen as American interference - precisely the situation in Iran right now.
Hydrogen is an odorless, colorless gas which, given enough time, turns into people.
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Iran: On The Verge Of Civil War?

Sun Jun 21, 2009 1:16 am



Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 48):
It was Bush's approach to the problem that turned people off; most other countries realized that you couldn't just topple the current government and expect a democratic one to spring up in its place, not in a part of the world with no history of democracy. The will for change has to come from within, and not be seen as American interference - precisely the situation in Iran right now

Well, here is a question for you. Do you think that the events in Afghanistan and Iraq, both with long borders with Iran and who have recently become democratic, have had an influence on Iranians? In other words, would the Iranian people have the cahones to do what they are doing now if Saddam and the Taliban had not been overthrown.

I don't know the answer, but there may have been a strong influence.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.

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