Hmm... will Kim the Ill give the US a 4000NM rocket trip for his own demise? Knowing that the world may be on his little state within days if not weeks?
The answer is unfortunately... YES.
This is a guy who'd assasinate his family for defecting!
He's under pressure, he has a problem picking his successor... if he choses any of this illegitimate sons, he'll set a dynasty which is against the stalinist principles he adhere to. Dear Leader has a dear problem...
Smuggled electronics from China has meant that people can use smuggled mobile phones near the border dishing out the latest gossip on the regime to journalists and intelligence agencies... of course, using prepaid cards paid for by the "sponsors"... These phones would be buried in people's gardens or secret locations, retrieved only for charging and use... since the NK
regime has searched people's houses before... (although that was to see who has been playing the latest editions of smuggled South Korean soap operas). Whilst in Pyongyang, we see people worshipping Dear Leader, outside the city its a different story... and I think 1/2 of the people worshipping the leader would spit at the leader if it wasn't for the totalitarian controls.
No this nutjob won't send a standard nuke to Hawaii... he has a limited menu to choose from from his 4th (well 5th) July Banquet... one is biological weapons... another is chemical weapons, the last one is what worries people... a dirty nuke... ie: it's not a nuke that'll blow up but one that'll have radioactive contaminants spreadout by a conventional explosion (like ChemWarfare stuff).
For him, whether it lands in downtown HNL
, or flops 2 miles short of Midway, he doesn't care... if he gets noticed, he got what he wanted... that is, the little commy brat taunting a fight...
He's alleged to have sponsored terrorism, international crime and all sorts of smuggling, even running a US Dollar Bill counterfeiting ring, or run insurance fraud, insurance investment scheme frauds, you name it... to finance his regime... whether to develop weapons, or to import crates of hennessy.
Whatever happens, he's a nutjob...
If he sends those missiles on 4th July (US time), Pyongyang could be subjected to an attack before the end of the 5th local time... by which, the world would know how many NK
spies are around the world because by the 6th they'd all defect... If you want to see NK
spies, just go to one of the Korean restaurants near the stock exchange in Jakarta. A bunch of men in "timeless clothing" taking 6hr lunches because they got nothing to do while waiting for Dear Leader to send an order.
So, what will the world do?
A nuke retaliation by anyone is unlikely. The media blackout in NK
is very effective by Dear Leader, so "precision" military strikes on numerous targets is likely, and the powerplants would be few to choose from (making it easier, albeit probably "heavily" defended).... The US would not suffer much on the PR
front on the "missed targetting" front, as the media blackout would make it hidden for a while...
Action would not happen at the DMZ... an amhibious assault following overwhelming airstrikes is likely. Spearheading through the DMZ would put Seoul at risk and lots of soldier casualties given the numerous (albeit primitve) defences around.
On the minimum scale, retaliation would be to hit the symbols of the regime, such as the Juche tower...
The mega radio transmitter used for proganda, those loudspeaker stations... and perhaps South Korea would sacrifice its investments in the special (and minute) economic zone(s)... Perhaps given the economic situation, such a missile sillylaunch by the dear leader would provide an excuse for SK
's military to make a move through the DMZ... and let the Americans go on an amphibious assault...
Pyongyang would be taken in days... the country? Well, they'd capitulate by winter... they need food and money!
, just my crazy thoughts... perhaps I'm also another nutjob!