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Longhornmaniac
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Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 8:31 am

These analysts seem to think so. It is an interesting piece, for sure. Interesting how the markets seem to be saying one thing, while the public is saying something resoundingly different.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_16/b4174028669540.htm

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Dreadnought
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 11:44 am

The writer's basis for saying that is working is based on two main things.

1) In spite of all the pain on main street, the Dow and other markets are way up, and
2) Productivity is up.

Why have the markets been up? Think about it. The Fed has increased the money supply by some 5 trillion dollars in the past year. Supposedly that was to encourage banks to lend more. Nevermind that too much lending cause the crisis to begin with, but evidence has been that lending has not substantially increased. So where did all that money go?

That's right, the banks took the cheap money from the Fed, paying a pittance in interest, and not finding viable loan opportunities, have plowed that money into the markets, inflating artificially inflating market prices. We are seeing another bubble, guys.

And productivity is up because companies have learned to do more with less. In my company, we dropped nearly 20% of our employees in the past 18 months, and have managed to grow sales with fewer people. Our people are overworked, but the company is on shaky financial ground and we don't want to take the risk of hiring more. If all other businesses are increasing revenue, then that can be a sign of coming employment relief as existing employees simply can't do any more. But I don't see that happening very much.

Sorry, but the "Stimulus" packages have been a complete dud. Keynesian economics has been proven to be a failure (again) - as Keynes himself admitted later in his life.
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AverageUser
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:14 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):

Sorry, but the "Stimulus" packages have been a complete dud. Keynesian economics has been proven to be a failure (again) - as Keynes himself admitted later in his life.

That classic false "conversion on death bed".

Whenever the free market guys mess things up, the Keynesians will have to mop it up.
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:22 pm

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 2):

Whenever the free market guys mess things up, the Keynesians will have to mop it up.

When they succeed in doing so, I might listen. But Keynes has been tried many times over the past century and has never mopped up anything, except a whole lot of money.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
AverageUser
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 1:10 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):

When they succeed in doing so, I might listen. But Keynes has been tried many times over the past century and has never mopped up anything, except a whole lot of money.

The Keynesians need to help the free marketers kickstart their business with public money -- the free marketeers then crash the market by ballooning it -- the Keynesians again come to rescue with public money and the cycle continues.
 
Lufthansa411
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 1:41 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):
When they succeed in doing so, I might listen. But Keynes has been tried many times over the past century and has never mopped up anything, except a whole lot of money.

So has supply side, and neither seem to work like their theorists proposed they would. My personal view is that there is no one size fits all economic model, whether it be from country to country or day to day. If there is stagflation like the 70's, the Keynesian model with not work. However, if there is a depression type scenario like the 30's, supply side does not work. The trick is balancing the two and figuring out at which point in time which one will work better.
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dxing
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 2:05 pm

The writer also makes some extrapolations that are smoke and mirrors. Namely that last month 162,000 jobs were added. Over a quarter of those were government jobs, mostly temporary, connected with the census. Secondly he projects one quarters growth into a whole year. He ignores the fact that 460,000 new unemployment claims were filed last month alone, on top of all those beforehand. Productivity is up because less people at work are having to do more. Employers aren't hiring because they are not sure of how taxes and regulations are going to affect their businesses. He state housing prices have stabilized, sure, at the bottom of their price range and how long does one sit on the market now before being bought? Mortgage rates are actually headed up. So are t-notes which is a harbinger of higher interest rates to come. Nope, Obamanomics is simply a way to defer the problems of today to tomorrow by just printing money as fast as the presses can churn it out.

The CEO's can say what they wish but I think they would have a different picture of what is really going on if they were subject to being put in the position of those that go on the TV show "Undercover Boss" for a few weeks.
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Pyrex
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 3:53 pm

Quoting DXing (Reply 6):
Employers aren't hiring because they are not sure of how taxes and regulations are going to affect their businesses.

Correct. There is just no confidence in what the boneheads in Washington will be doing to mess up the recovery even further so they will try to do the most with the least amount of resources possible. For probably the first time ever, the greatest single risk any employer faces this day is not competitive, market, interest rate or anything else but political risk. The U.S. is now more unpredictable than many emerging markets, and unpredictability is the real killer.

That said, the economy will probably be better by the time Obama leaves office (which can't come soon enough) but that just has to do with the cyclical nature of economies - no matter how much he tries not even Obama can mess up the basic cyclical nature of economics. The question will be, how much more of a recovery would we have otherwise and what the long term damage will be to economic growth and the ability to rebound quickly from future crisis (which will occur, because they are inevitable).
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Flighty
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 4:08 pm

No, it's not working. The American economy is incredibly vibrant and dynamic. Even with drunk idiots running it, it will recover despite the punishing weight of new debts and a long-run unsustainable entitlements picture.

This doesn't mean what Obama and Bush II both did (essentially the same policies, if you look at it) were any good at all. They were both horrible.
 
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seb146
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 4:27 pm

I love this quote:
"We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."
I also remember hearing on Maddow earlier this week that the banks that have repayed their loans have done so with interest, giving back 10s of billions of dollars in interest to us, the American people. I still believe it was wrong to take loans and give themselves healthy bonuses, but, they payed loans back with interest.

IMO, we are not out of the woods yet, but things are getting back to good. The right does not want to say so because there is a Dem at the helm and Dems in charge in Congress. The right wants to wait until after the mid-term elections to start toying with the economy then say "Look at all the good we did!" when most of that "good" started off under Dem control.
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Dreadnought
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 4:32 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 9):
"We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."
I also remember hearing on Maddow earlier this week that the banks that have repayed their loans have done so with interest, giving back 10s of billions of dollars in interest to us, the American people. I still believe it was wrong to take loans and give themselves healthy bonuses, but, they payed loans back with interest.

Did you read my post? The loans were repaid and the stock markets stoked up because the banks got other loans at 0.25% interest from the Fed. Right pocket to left pocket - and the right pocket was simply fed by a printing press.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
Ken777
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 5:14 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):
Even with drunk idiots running it, it will recover despite the punishing weight of new debts and a long-run unsustainable entitlements picture.

Fortunately the Bush Years did end, even if they did send us into the Great Recession.

No one really knows what would have happened if, say, Bush would have had another 18 to 24 months. A true depression would have been very possible.

The major problem this country faces these days is the attitude of the "loyal opposition" is degenerating anything from the Democrats. My concern is one of self-fufiling prophecies. The conservatives keep saying how horrible things are and those who listen and believe actually act in ways that make it worse. The problem with this hatred and "sky is falling" crap is that it won't go away when the conservatives are actually elected again. Rush & Palin & Beck can then talk all they want about how "wonderful" things are then, but their hole has been dug so deep that I have little faith in the conservatives being able to do squat to improve the economy.
 
dxing
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 5:19 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 11):
No one really knows what would have happened if, say, Bush would have had another 18 to 24 months. A true depression would have been very possible.

Given this administration and Congresses even more reckless spending habits than those of the Bush years that is still a very real possibility. If they decide to introduce a VAT on top of instead of replacing the income tax which has been whispered and rumored about over the past few months, that might just be enough to do it.
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NIKV69
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 5:45 pm

Can't really judge at this point. The market is going up most likley because of the bargain hunting going on in the real estate market and other goods and services but we won't know how much this is real because of the fact many are not making the profit margin due to the fact everyone is just giving everything away in the name of moving product. Real job growth has not been created and now will be even more hurt by the health care bill in which jobs will be lost, or not created as businesses attempt to offset the heavy burden Obama has just placed on them. We will probably have a better idea 16 months from now on how the country will react to the huge spending and taxation but I am not confident. I think what we will see is a delay reaction into a worst situation 5 years from now. We have an administration that has made the very people that make this country great the bad guys because they have succeeded and we are going to pay for it unless you get out to vote this November.
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Flighty
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 5:58 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 11):
The conservatives keep saying how horrible things are

That was the Democrats 1 year ago, crying that Obama inherited a dying economy. Of course it was not dying. They whole "great recession" is mostly claptrap. It's all relative. When Michael Jordan is a little tired, he does not become a "bad basketball player." He just needs a nap. We had all these overblown "emergency" headlines. Nothing really happened.

And, we could have another financial shock. We haven't done anything to prevent that. But, fundamentally of course we are strong. Only a raving dolt could actually destroy the US economy... although Obama's people did try. Their rhetoric is continually that the "government" must "provide jobs." I really wonder if they comprehend that the US would have recovered once the mortage market shock (a very abstract and localized event) was fixed. This wasn't the second coming of the Depression. That's simply crazy talk.

It's also crazy to think we can get through life without a financial hiccup now and then. They happen. When they happen, it's not tragic... it's LIFE. IMO
 
BMI727
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 8:27 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 9):
I also remember hearing on Maddow earlier this week that the banks that have repayed their loans have done so with interest, giving back 10s of billions of dollars in interest to us, the American people.

That doesn't mean that the government should become involved in more stuff like this.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 9):
give themselves healthy bonuses,

That isn't any of your, or the government's, business.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 9):
but things are getting back to good.

That's what usually happens after a crash.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 11):
even if they did send us into the Great Recession.

There are plenty of people to blame for the recession.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
It's also crazy to think we can get through life without a financial hiccup now and then.

Exactly. Perhaps the silliest thing in this entire thread is the notion that a) the government is responsible for making sure the market is always booming and b) that they can make sure that it is always booming.
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Ken777
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 8:36 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
That was the Democrats 1 year ago, crying that Obama inherited a dying economy.



Ot was. A lot of pretty bright economists were vary afraid of an actual depression. But you'd just pass of a depression as a figment of out imagination.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
They whole "great recession" is mostly claptrap.

Sure it was. Along with a 10% unemployment rate even after the stimulus.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
Only a raving dolt could actually destroy the US economy...

Bush & Cheney almost did.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
That's simply crazy talk.

All the bright Republicans were probably saying that in late 1928.
 
Flighty
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 9:17 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 16):
All the bright Republicans were probably saying that in late 1928.

Yeah some big name economists did agree with Obama. And others did not. I think what the government did actually weakened the country by injecting uncertainty into capitalism (will the govt take over banks? Why run a bank? Is it safe to make loans in a Chavez style regime? etc) This is not the majority view but it is a well considered one.

The best, and strongest move would have been to not do (misnamed) "stimulus" which actually depressed the economy, and not bail out Goldman Sachs by proxy through AIG. Although I agree some short term (under 9 months) actions were needed. What's not needed is a 20 year highway to hell.

Bush and Cheney had a huge illegal war AND did a lot of other bad stuff. Yet they didn't do the amount of financial damage Obama is doing. It's not "necessary," it's totally optional and silly IMO.

Yes a lot of economists agreed with what Obama did (in terms of the massive deficit). And a lot disagreed and still do. My favorite is Greg Mankiw during that time. The "problem" with our economy is worry about solvency. This is an unnecessary problem. We are so incredibly rich we need not run a deficit. This is like a person making $1 million a year, and believing he needs to spend $1.1 million a year because it's "what he thinks is right during these hard times."

On the USA scale this is kind of ludicrous, because it involves so much money that nobody's ever borrowed that much money for such weak reasons. The US economy can be destroyed, if we create certain policies (such as a $35 trillion debt) that push even the most powerful economy into default. If we had a GDP of 40 quadrillion dollars, we could have a debt of 200 quadrillion dollars and go into default. It is a silly situation created by silly people who don't know, and don't really care about the real answers. I am merely suggesting we are fine... and that people, not economics are to blame for our problems.

[Edited 2010-04-10 14:19:35]
 
Lufthansa411
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sat Apr 10, 2010 9:57 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 17):
Yeah some big name economists did agree with Obama. And others did not. I think what the government did actually weakened the country by injecting uncertainty into capitalism (will the govt take over banks? Why run a bank? Is it safe to make loans in a Chavez style regime? etc) This is not the majority view but it is a well considered one.

I don't think it was a case of injecting uncertainty as much as being ambiguous as opposed to straightforward. Markets like a firm decision with ideas that they can follow easily and defer to. "We are injecting money", "We are taking over banks". Of course there is uncertainty within those decisions, like "Which bank will be taken over?" but as long as Wall St. sees the path that the administration is following and can follow it as well, investors would allow quite a lot of government takeover and still finish with a gain on the big board. The problem is politicians from both parties don't like clarity, because it can come to haunt them later. As a result, the market swings more as investors openly contemplate what will be decided and how.
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StarAC17
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 1:54 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 15):
That doesn't mean that the government should become involved in more stuff like this.

I agree, we shouldn't be awarding bad behavior.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 15):
That isn't any of your, or the government's, business.

If they gave you money to stay solvent then it is the government's business what that company does with it. When Bush signed off on these bailouts these guys thought they were getting a blank check to do as they please and had he been in power longer the banks could have gotten away with it.

However Obama realizing that he is now he is basically at the boardroom table told them no to the bonuses unless you pay back the bailout money which a lot of banks did.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 16):
Bush & Cheney almost did.

To be fair, this crash was the result of about 30 years of bad behaviour by corporations, individuals and the government.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 17):
Yes a lot of economists agreed with what Obama did (in terms of the massive deficit). And a lot disagreed and still do.

Typically governments run deficits when times are bad to stimulate the economy because the private sector is incapable or unwilling to for whatever reason (ie banks not lending). However when times are good governments should not be running big deficits.

This is the mistake that the US has been making (being in the red when times are good) and now everyone is rightly pissed about the fact that the government feels it has to spend to jump start and obviously this is going to increase any deficit.
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BMI727
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 4:28 am

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 19):
If they gave you money to stay solvent then it is the government's business what that company does with it.

Which is just one more reason to not have the government get mixed up in this type of thing.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
cws818
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 4:37 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 20):
Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 19):
If they gave you money to stay solvent then it is the government's business what that company does with it.

Which is just one more reason to not have the government get mixed up in this type of thing.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda....all fine and well, but the government did get involved, out of necessity, so now it is the government's and the people's concern, and legitimately so.
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BMI727
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 4:57 am

Quoting cws818 (Reply 21):
so now it is the government's and the people's concern, and legitimately so.

I still don't think so. It is silly give a bunch of money to businessmen and then expect them to stop acting like businessmen.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
baroque
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 6:45 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):
Quoting cws818 (Reply 21):
so now it is the government's and the people's concern, and legitimately so.

I still don't think so. It is silly give a bunch of money to businessmen and then expect them to stop acting like businessmen.

Trying to work out what might be meant here, and it seems that acting honestly and in the interests of their companies over at least the medium term is a possible contender.

As to whether bankers should be left alone to determine their own remuneration, aside from the Fed funds issue there is a small matter of shareholders, you know the ones that own those companies. Are they consulted over who is appointed, what their policies should be and so on - and on? There are pro forma votes, but the power behind the companies has the answers sewn up in advance. Try following the adventures of Stephen Mayne (the guy who started Crikey.com) in trying to get some non Murdoch benefits into News Corp thinking.

Obamanomics has a great deal it needs to change. Boards of companies are still old boys and now old girls clubs, the last thing they are is a meritocracy.
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 1:04 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 23):

Obamanomics has a great deal it needs to change. Boards of companies are still old boys and now old girls clubs, the last thing they are is a meritocracy.

Yes, there is a lot of good-ole-boy elements on boards. But on the whole, they did earn their positions. It is the responsibility of investors to vote for decent people. Could it be tweaked? Sure. But do I trust Obama to put in place reforms that improve protections for the investors? Not on your life. He already has a history of treating them like dirt - witness what happened at GM, where bondholders were fleeced in favor of Obama's own friends.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
baroque
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 1:57 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 24):
But on the whole, they did earn their positions.

Got any stats on those who earned them doing the job required by whatever company and those earned at the bar of the golf club, or these days by a spot of horizontal folk dancing?
 
474218
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:32 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 16):
Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
Only a raving dolt could actually destroy the US economy...

Bush & Cheney almost did.

I seem to remember back about five or six years ago, the stock market was at 14,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. Let me think who was president then?
 
TheCommodore
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:39 pm

Quoting 474218 (Reply 26):
Quoting Ken777 (Reply 16):
Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
Only a raving dolt could actually destroy the US economy...

Bush & Cheney almost did.

Quoting 474218,
I seem to remember back about five or six years ago, the stock market was at 14,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. Let me think who was president then?

Weren't GWB and Cheney in some way responsible for the GFC ?

[Edited 2010-04-11 07:41:45]
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
 
Pyrex
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 3:11 pm

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 19):
(ie banks not lending)

That is the biggest bull-shit argument there is, and people keep perpetuating that as a reason to bash the banks. I look at bank financial statements and read bank investor call transcripts every day. The reason banks aren't lending is because NO-ONE IS BORROWING. This is not necessarily a bad thing (given that the crisis was caused by over-leverage and all) but the fact is no-one is going to borrow money to invest in their businesses when they don't know if Obama is going to wake up tomorrow and make them their populist target du jour.

With bank deposits on the rise as people try to take advantage of the FDIC guarantees and very soft loan demand, this represents a serious threat to the future profitability of the banks. I see plenty of banks that are out of the woods in terms of credit quality (which for some, more prudent ones is already stabilizing), i.e., not losing money, but are uncapable of making money too because no-one is borrowing - they would love nothing more than to lend, that is their business after all.

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 27):
Weren't GWB and Cheney in some way responsible for the GFC ?

If you think that Obama is somehow responsible for getting us out of it, then yes. Of course if you look at the past we have had financial crisis once every 10 years or so, so maybe if you time it right enough you can always blame it on a Republican. I am sure the dot-com bust was Bush's fault as well despite the fact that the boom happened in Clinton's time, no?
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dxing
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 3:32 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
Got any stats on those who earned them doing the job required by whatever company and those earned at the bar of the golf club, or these days by a spot of horizontal folk dancing?

Whether they started in the mailroom or club room makes no difference. If they got their legally then no one can have a complaint. We have a President who has never ever had to meet a payroll and yet somehow he knows what's best for the economic health of the country?
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, a road that goes forever, I'm going to Texas!
 
AGM100
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 3:44 pm

It is working ... very well. Building a ever larger dependent class .... a cradle to grave coddled society dependent on the wims of politicians , tax rates and government programs.
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
baroque
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 4:05 pm

Quoting DXing (Reply 29):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
Got any stats on those who earned them doing the job required by whatever company and those earned at the bar of the golf club, or these days by a spot of horizontal folk dancing?

Whether they started in the mailroom or club room makes no difference. I

And those graduates of the mail and club rooms perform how?

Show me a large company, and I can point to half a dozen mistake that only an idiot would have made. And yes, there were plenty of half idiots on the sidelines at the time saying, "why ever are they doing that?"

Start with Rio and the half sale to Chinalco. Move to Magma and BHP. HBI and BHP. I know the guy who did Magma, and all that happened was his dream of the top job went, but his salary did not decrease.

All I can say, is you are much more easily pleased financially than one might have concluded from the general tenor of your posts on most subjects.  
 
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seb146
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 4:29 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 15):
Quoting seb146 (Reply 9):
give themselves healthy bonuses,

That isn't any of your, or the government's, business.

I never said it was. A lot of us think it was poor timing to hand out obscene bonuses when people were losing jobs and their houses and their health insurance all at once.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 15):
Quoting seb146 (Reply 9):
I also remember hearing on Maddow earlier this week that the banks that have repayed their loans have done so with interest, giving back 10s of billions of dollars in interest to us, the American people.

That doesn't mean that the government should become involved in more stuff like this.

I never said that.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 10):
The loans were repaid and the stock markets stoked up because the banks got other loans at 0.25% interest from the Fed.
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 15):
Quoting seb146 (Reply 9):
but things are getting back to good.

That's what usually happens after a crash.

But, just imagine what would have happened if there had been nothing done. Imagine how many people would be out on the street, no food, no clothes, no job. On top of that, remember all the debt piled on owed to China and Saudi Arabia for two wars. Besides, IIRC, the Fed was printing money pretty fast under Bush as well, but there was silence from the right over that. Where was the outrage then? Where were the "tea party" and "tax day" protests then? I recall those that were protesting were told to be quiet and support the president because that is the patriotic thing to do: support the president no matter what.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
dxing
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 5:05 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 31):
Show me a large company, and I can point to half a dozen mistake that only an idiot would have made. And yes, there were plenty of half idiots on the sidelines at the time saying, "why ever are they doing that?"

Which has no bearing on where the board members came from. Let's not forget the pilots had a seat on the UA board and what they did with at power. Let's hope the UAW learned a lesson from that debacle.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 31):
All I can say, is you are much more easily pleased financially than one might have concluded from the general tenor of your posts on most subjects.

Make no mistake, the government has not business running businesses. To that end I was against both Tarp, and the take over of GM. I whole heartedly agree with Flighty that this administration and this President are hell bent on taking us back to the pre-Reagan days of a lifetime dependent class as the people on welfare through the 60's-70's- and 80's became. Not only making the lower soci-economic class that way again but the middle class that way this time as well. They can't make the wealthy dependent but they can do everything in their power to break them and bend them to the governments will by virtue of taxation and regulation.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, a road that goes forever, I'm going to Texas!
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8438
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 6:52 pm

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 4):

The Keynesians need to help the free marketers kickstart their business with public money -- the free marketeers then crash the market by ballooning it -- the Keynesians again come to rescue with public money and the cycle continues.

Hahahaha you again!!! Ballooning is all Keynes is about!!!!!! Keynsians like Mr Krugman himself actually called for a mortgage boom back in the early 2000s!!!

Quote:
Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/op...bya-s-double-dip.html?pagewanted=1
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8438
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 7:12 pm

Quoting Lufthansa411 (Reply 5):
However, if there is a depression type scenario like the 30's, supply side does not work. The trick is balancing the two and figuring out at which point in time which one will work better.

The trick is getting history right.

Quote:
At the outset of the Depression, Hoover claims in his memoirs that he rejected Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon's suggested "leave-it-alone" approach.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Hoover#Great_Depression

Hoover was a progressive, not a market-friendly person. Hoover is really the one who started the New Deal, and Roosevelt followed with a re-branding and massive expansion for political gain.

Roosevelt kept the public on his welfare payroll and kept getting re-elected.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
Ken777
Posts: 10015
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 7:19 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 23):
Boards of companies are still old boys and now old girls clubs, the last thing they are is a meritocracy.

At first I thought you were writing mediocracy and was going to disagree with you.  
Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 24):
witness what happened at GM, where bondholders were fleeced in favor of Obama's own friends.

As opposed to the company liquidated with everyone loosing. As I recall Forbes had both "GM" and "Bankruptcy" together on their cover years ago. The only surprise is that they lasted as long as they did.

Anyone buying their bonds would have demanded an interest rate in line with the risk they would be facing. That's just common sense.

Quoting DXing (Reply 29):
We have a President who has never ever had to meet a payroll and yet somehow he knows what's best for the economic health of the country?

Bush & Cheney "met payrolls" (sure) and look how they totally screwed the small business owner trying to provide health insurance to their employees.

I'll go with Obama any day over those two. For health care, stabilizing the financial sector, getting us out of Iraq, etc.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 31):
Show me a large company, and I can point to half a dozen mistake that only an idiot would have made.

Apple.

Steve Jobs.

Sadly he is one of a kind.

Quoting DXing (Reply 33):
Let's hope the UAW learned a lesson from that debacle.

And the UAW can point to Citi, AIG, etc. Out of the 3 I think etc is where I would park my investments.
 
TheCommodore
Posts: 3458
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 7:31 pm

Quoting Pyrex (Reply 28):
Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 27):
Weren't GWB and Cheney in some way responsible for the GFC ?

If you think that Obama is somehow responsible for getting us out of it, then yes. Of course if you look at the past we have had financial crisis once every 10 years or so, so maybe if you time it right enough you can always blame it on a Republican. I am sure the dot-com bust was Bush's fault as well despite the fact that the boom happened in Clinton's time, no?

Sorry, but we don't have a crisis like this every 10 years as you put it.
The "ripple" effects from this were felt around the entire world.

We haven't had ANYTHING like this since the great depression !!  Sad

[Edited 2010-04-11 12:43:48]
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
 
dxing
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 8:07 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 36):
Bush & Cheney "met payrolls" (sure) and look how they totally screwed the small business owner trying to provide health insurance to their employees.

You can blame the true party of "NO" for that. The democrats stifled any attempt at health care reform unless it was single payer government run.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 36):
I'll go with Obama any day over those two. For health care, stabilizing the financial sector, getting us out of Iraq, etc.

If that is what you are judging him by then he is a failure. Health care? The new health care law does nothing to control health care costs. Its true cost, when doc fix and the medicaid fixes are factored in far exceeds the published 985 billion cost. It pays for just 6 out of the first 10 years. It doesn't "fix" medicare but double counts savings supposedly gained. In short, Enron had better accounting procedures in place.

Stabilizing the fincancial sector? Thank your friends President Bush and VP Cheney for that. They are the one that got the TARP ball rolling. All this President has done is obsess over contractually earned bonuses while looking the other way at Fannie and Freddie's mistakes, promoted by the likes of democrats Barney Frank and Chris Dodd and explained in Congressional testimony this past week by Alan Greenspan.

http://fcic.gov/hearings/pdfs/2010-0407-Greenspan.pdf

Starting at the bottom of page 4 he correctly identifies the two GSE's as co-conspirators in advancing the sub-prime lending that led up to the crisis. President Bush and his administration were on record in their first term as wanting home ownership for those that could afford it but warning against giving credit to those that could not afford it. So here too President Obama gets an F.

Oh, and by the way, we're still in Iraq. But the good news is that President Bush and his administration negotiated a time table for withdrawl that the Iraqis, and President Obama, are adhereing too.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 36):
And the UAW can point to Citi, AIG, etc. Out of the 3 I think etc is where I would park my investments.


In the UAW/GM? When you can, go ahead, I dare you. I already made my money off of Citi (C). In March of 2009 their shares dropped unexpectedly to $1.05. I bought my fair share. Sold them a little over 2 weeks later and almost tripled my money. Now it's a dog. But go ahead and stick your money there if you don't have any interest in making any.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, a road that goes forever, I'm going to Texas!
 
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Dreadnought
Posts: 10201
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 9:11 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 32):
But, just imagine what would have happened if there had been nothing done. Imagine how many people would be out on the street, no food, no clothes, no job.

And just imagine if they had gone under. The accountholders's money would have been safe for the vast majority, and would ave been moved. Dozens of smaller, healthier banks would have suddenly seen their big competitors taken out and would have a huge opportunity for growth. A bit of turmoil for a few months, and then the market would have found its legs again and we would be in much better shape today.

Your argument is just the propaganda propagated by the special interests in charge of our government - and that includes many Republicans as well.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 32):
Besides, IIRC, the Fed was printing money pretty fast under Bush as well, but there was silence from the right over that.

Yes there was - at least on Fox they reported it. There was a lot of talk about the virtually unlimited liquidity that was provided in September/October 2008, but the hope was that this was a temporary move, and it would be slowed within a few months. But it was not slowed, and continues to this day.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 36):
As opposed to the company liquidated with everyone loosing. As I recall Forbes had both "GM" and "Bankruptcy" together on their cover years ago. The only surprise is that they lasted as long as they did.

My Masters' thesis nearly 20 years ago was about the implosion of General Motors due to stupid management and the UAW. This was nothing new.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 36):
Anyone buying their bonds would have demanded an interest rate in line with the risk they would be facing. That's just common sense.

They did - GM bonds were hardly AAA rated. But never before had the government unilaterally stepped in and said to bondholders, "Sorry, your bonds are worthless and we are giving your money to the Unions". It was plain and simple theft.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Sun Apr 11, 2010 10:31 pm

Quoting Pyrex (Reply 28):
That is the biggest bull-shit argument there is, and people keep perpetuating that as a reason to bash the banks.

  

During probably THE worst months of the crisis (October - November 2008), my friend had zero problems getting a mortgage for his first house. The banks were open and ready to lend throughout the crisis.

But they did not continue lending to Taco Bell minimum wage workers, or businesses that were insolvent. That was the "stoppage" (and largely a positive one) that people refer to.
 
Ken777
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 1:42 am

Quoting DXing (Reply 38):
You can blame the true party of "NO" for that. The democrats stifled any attempt at health care reform unless it was single payer government run.

When the only thing the Republicans were interested in were the proposed laws written by health insurance companies it's just as well the Democrats were there. But keep crying for "tort reform" and "cross border selling" of heath insurance. Just don't try to pretend it will help patients or consumers.

Quoting DXing (Reply 38):
Its true cost, when doc fix and the medicaid fixes are factored in far exceeds the published 985 billion cost.

The doc & medicare fixes were never part of the Health Care Reform - they were left over problems from the Bush/Cheney years. Both need to be addressed for the problems they are, with financing based on logically moving forward in the future.

Quoting DXing (Reply 38):
In short, Enron had better accounting procedures in place.

Ken Lay & his pals were crooks. Doesn't mean that every one of the thousands of employees were crooks. Texas doesn't have enough room in their prison system if that was the case.

But then I would trust the average person who happened to work at Enron than I would the average person sitting at a computer in a health insurance company deciding if my health care was going to be paid for.

Quoting DXing (Reply 38):
Oh, and by the way, we're still in Iraq. But the good news is that President Bush and his administration negotiated a time table for withdrawl that the Iraqis, and President Obama, are adhereing too.

Bush gave in when Obama and others were calling for an end to that farce in Iraq. Some, like Cheney, still try to cling to some "justification" for being there, but it was a screw up from day one and Bush finally understood. Don't try to heap praise on the dude - not with the tens of thousands of Purple Hearts that have been awarded for his Administrations invasion.

Quoting DXing (Reply 38):
But go ahead and stick your money there if you don't have any interest in making any.

My comment was that I'd prefer to invest in "etc."

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 39):
But never before had the government

Neat quote - you can take it back to the Iraq Invasion where we had never before invaded another country for oil. Compared to Bush/Cheney's games Obama's are nothing.
 
Pyrex
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:12 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 36):
Anyone buying their bonds would have demanded an interest rate in line with the risk they would be facing. That's just common sense.

Anyone buying their bonds should have (and probably did) factor in credit risk, i.e. the risk GM would default on the debt. Unlike in, say, Venezuela, precedent gave them a reasonable expectation that contract law would be respected, and so they probably did not factor political risk, or the risk that centuries of contract and bankruptcy law would suddenly get thrown out the window to favor Obama's political friends. Shame on the bondholders for believing in the rule of law, right?
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
cws818
Posts: 824
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 8:15 am

Quoting DXing (Reply 46):
When he took office we were in recession and it was getting worse. In 15 months the unemployment level has only gotten worse and there is no sign that it is going to improve anytime soon. He fought for and has gotten passed a trillion dollar "stimulus" bill and what has it accomplished? Contrast that with the 1982-83 recession in which unemployment was actually worse, interest rates were higher, and the President and Congress were of opposite parties. That's how I define that term and how I use it to assess his performance.

All true, of course, but how much is the current state of the economy a function of Obama administration policies?
volgende halte...Station Hollands Spoor
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 11:38 am

Quoting cws818 (Reply 47):
All true, of course, but how much is the current state of the economy a function of Obama administration policies?

Let's grant the correction. It is the result of policies that Obama supported and (on the rare occasions he actually showed up to vote) voted in favor of. He has been a champion of reckless lending of banks to people who cannot afford it for close to 20 years, for one thing.

More directly, he carries full responsibility for the massive wasteful spending programs that he has pushed through in the past 15 months, which have turned out to have virtually no benefit to the general population.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
dxing
Posts: 5859
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2008 5:14 pm

RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 3:14 pm

Quoting cws818 (Reply 46):
All true, of course, but how much is the current state of the economy a function of Obama administration policies?

After 15 months, a massive stimulus bill, an actual take over of one large company that affects many smaller ones, the defacto take over of several others, and a year long fight at the expense of virtually all else, for something that will only create a larger government payroll? All of it. He walked into it, but has done virtually nothing to improve it and may acatually have been doing more to slow the recovery than if he had done nothing at all.

At what point in an administration do they own the economy in which they are operating? You sound as if no matter what, none of the current state of the economy can be laid at this Presidents feet or is his responsibility to help try and fix.

[Edited 2010-04-12 08:17:49]
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, a road that goes forever, I'm going to Texas!
 
Ken777
Posts: 10015
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 3:27 pm

Quoting DXing (Reply 42):
They were never a part because if they had been the actual bill for this boondoggle would have easil topped 1 trillion and then some.

Wrong again, but you'll never notice.

How long has the Doc Fix been giong on? Has Palin actually convinced you that this problem jsut popped up since Obama was sworn in? Or did you see a Glen Beck chart?   

Quoting DXing (Reply 42):
Nope, by any measure Obamanomics is a failure.

This coming for a lover of the party that brought us the Great Recession? But, hey, Bush and Cheney have "met a payroll" so we should put all our faith in them? Sure.

Quoting DXing (Reply 42):
Wait....let me read that again.....

Read it as many times as you like. Bush eventually got the message that the Iraq Invasion was a FUBAR, but only after a lot of people kept talking about it in public. Got to the point that WMD stood for Where's My Dick (Cheney).

And, yes, Obama was right in the lead when it came to pushing for withdrawal.
 
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seb146
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:17 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 39):
The accountholders's money would have been safe for the vast majority, and would ave been moved.

What about the mortages and other personal loans held by the big banks? Do you honestly think those would have just fallen by the wayside? No. The banks would have called all those in all at once plus interest which no normal family has that much cash on hand. It would have been a disaster. Of course, those of us that can't even afford a mortgage would have been safe and moved our assets (all $11) to a smaller, solvent bank or credit union, but everyone else?

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 39):
Yes there was - at least on Fox they reported it.

And the "patriotic" tea party movement said.......? Rush said.....? Bachmann said.....?

Quoting DXing (Reply 38):
You can blame the true party of "NO" for that. The democrats stifled any attempt at health care reform unless it was single payer government run.

Riiiiiight. How many times, exactly, was health care reform introduced under right-wingers? If single-payer were the only point Democrats wanted for health care reform, do you honestly think this health care legisltation that passed would have?
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
AGM100
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:47 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 46):
Doc Fix been giong on?

Dont need Doc fix in a freemarket system ..... it is only needed under a universal healthcare system. And it was ommited and kicked down the road for some other administration to deal with . It strikes at the heart of the problem and shows the lack of real world vision displayed by the Dem's/

Simple issue ... how do we give the service away for free .... and pay the people who do the service ?. It is simply the point that their ideas come off the tracks ...and they elected to not even adress it.
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Is Obamanomics Working?

Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:51 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 47):
What about the mortages and other personal loans held by the big banks? Do you honestly think those would have just fallen by the wayside? No. The banks would have called all those in all at once plus interest which no normal family has that much cash on hand. It would have been a disaster. Of course, those of us that can't even afford a mortgage would have been safe and moved our assets (all $11) to a smaller, solvent bank or credit union, but everyone else?

It sounds like you don't know bank accounting works too much. I suggest you find out.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 47):
And the "patriotic" tea party movement said.......? Rush said.....? Bachmann said.....?

Why don't you look it up and tell us?

Quoting seb146 (Reply 47):
Riiiiiight. How many times, exactly, was health care reform introduced under right-wingers? If single-payer were the only point Democrats wanted for health care reform, do you honestly think this health care legisltation that passed would have?

Blue Dogs, anyone?
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.

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