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mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:46 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 249):
Which lunatic are you referring to?

Iran.

Iran would be a fool to give up nuclear ambitions now. The one thing they want more than anything is assurance that they will not be attacked. There is no way they can ever be convinced of that now that they see what happens when a dictator gives up the bomb. Just a colossal blunder. We can thank the French and the British for that and Obama for being led astray. He is truly an amateur.

What motivated the French and British, we may never know. I suspect money and oil. Maybe a desire to eliminate the one guy who can implicate them in a prisoner/oil contract swap?
 
NAV20
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:56 am

First mention so far of the word 'stalemate.' I don't expect that it'll be the last. You'd have thought that 'they' would already have learned that lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan?

And Obama already dead keen on passing the buck. I don't think that there'll be any rush of volunteers, though.........

http://www.smh.com.au/world/strikes-...lemate-general-20110322-1c4v6.html

[Edited 2011-03-21 22:59:11]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
AeroWesty
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 6:03 am

Quoting mham001 (Reply 250):
There is no way they can ever be convinced of that now that they see what happens when a dictator gives up the bomb.

In the meantime, I did a bit more reading, and came across an opinion piece that appeared on the HuffPost today that mirrors your POV. Some of the comments there are interesting:

The Lesson the U.S. Is Teaching the World in Libya

But I have to agree with the commentator who also puts forth the PA103 conclusion and expands upon it a bit. Reagan ordered Libya bombed in retaliation for the German night club bombing. The West has never retaliated for PA103 directly. There are too many variables in this to make a direct correlation that the West shouldn't be trusted when nuclear ambitions are dropped.
International Homo of Mystery
 
11Bravo
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 6:43 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 251):
And Obama already dead keen on passing the buck.

That's very unfair. From the start of this situation the US made it clear that after the initial strikes, someone else (France, UK, NATO) would be running this thing. My understanding is that will occur in the next day or two. If it does not we have a very serious problem.

Our NATO allies better get their act together on this thing. The news today was very disconcerting. I hear waffling and indecision coming from Europe. Step up. The United States should terminate its participation in this cluster by Thursday if the European powers cannot, or will not act. We should have never gotten dragged into this.
WhaleJets Rule!
 
TheCol
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 6:49 am

http://www.canada.com/news/Middle+Ea...kes+Yemen+brink/4479734/story.html

Right or wrong, we just opened up the biggest can of worms since the beginning of the Cold War. The events that will unfold in the Middle East over the next few weeks could very well set the stage for the rest of the 21st century.

Quoting cpd (Reply 226):
Looks like it came from Mr Putin - who has been unusually sternly reprimanded by President Medvedev who described Putin's remarks as unacceptable.

They are just doing the "good cop, bad cop" routine to try and legitimize Medvedev's position.
No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
 
ozglobal
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 9:27 am

Quoting mham001 (Reply 250):
What motivated the French and British, we may never know. I suspect money and oil. Maybe a desire to eliminate the one guy who can implicate them in a prisoner/oil contract swap?

I see, so American power acts only out of noble intentions, either enlightened or misled depending on your partisan politics, but Europoeans and other 'foreign' powers always act out of some dirty intringue. The problem is just identifing which dirty motive it is in any given case? What would we do without you?
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
Severnaya
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 9:44 am

Quoting mham001 (Reply 250):
What motivated the French and British, we may never know.

Of course freedom and democracy   

Greetings from LED   
Всяк глядит, да не всяк видит.
 
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Aesma
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:59 am

I have seen Pan Am Flight 103 mentioned numerous times now. Might I remind this aviation forum about UTA Flight 772 ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
mham001
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 2:40 pm

Quoting cpd (Reply 232):

From who, and how credible? Are you getting your information from Mussa Ibrahim?
Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 255):

I see, so American power acts only out of noble intentions, either enlightened or misled depending on your partisan politics, but Europoeans and other 'foreign' powers always act out of some dirty intringue. The problem is just identifing which dirty motive it is in any given case? What would we do without you?

I have never claimed America's actions are only noble and altruistic. Every country acts in it's own self interests. The problem is, the US has no interest in this fight and if this were only about altruism, there are far worse and more deserved places to use military force. Remember Mrynamar? Iran? Rwanda? Sudan? Other routine African massacres? What about current Yemen? Ivory Coast?

In fact, based upon the standards I hear argued here for interdiction, we should have intervened during the Muslim French riots of '06. What about the pension riots of '10? Police violently suppressing the will of the people, massive arrests and deaths....
 
tu204
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 3:21 pm

Quoting TheCol (Reply 254):
They are just doing the "good cop, bad cop" routine to try and legitimize Medvedev's position.

Nope. Dmitri Medvedev is a lawyer, Vladimir Putin is an intelligence operative. They have different views, visible here. They both have their own views no matter what the western media portrays.
If the two run against each other in the coming election, Putin has my vote.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
GDB
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:05 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 220):
Qadaffi may be trying to pressure Italy into giving up their support for the aircap. He's taking hostages.

Seems that Italian AF Tornado ECR aircraft have carried out missions, so events might have moved on in that respect.

mham001, Scottish, Welsh, Irish, UK Commonwealth personnel involved in this action might be amused that they are the 'English'.
Nit picking? Maybe, however I find it's usually a fairly reliable indicator of not really understanding an international situation, if you cannot get the name of the country right?
(Often accompanied by the assertion of 'we are more pure than those Europeans').
 
mham001
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:36 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 260):
mham001, Scottish, Welsh, Irish, UK Commonwealth personnel involved in this action might be amused that they are the 'English'.
Nit picking? Maybe, however I find it's usually a fairly reliable indicator of not really understanding an international situation, if you cannot get the name of the country right?
(Often accompanied by the assertion of 'we are more pure than those Europeans').

Apparently, pointing out that Englands own David Camaron has led the political charge (along with Sarkozy) is beyond your ability to comprehend.

[Edited 2011-03-22 09:42:42]
 
futurepilot16
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:55 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 250):
Iran would be a fool to give up nuclear ambitions now. The one thing they want more than anything is assurance that they will not be attacked. There is no way they can ever be convinced of that now

Iran still have numerous incentives for not devolpoing a nuclear bomb, the number one being all the sanctions that would be put on that country for doing so. There a lot of diplomatic situations that could play out, you're jumping the gun a little bit.

Quoting mham001 (Reply 250):
Obama for being led astray. He is truly an amateur.

Ohhh....of course he is. Unlike Mr. Bush who led a war into Iraq that cost hundreds of billions of dollars chasing "rumors" of WMD's with little to no proof. Let's not forget the 4-5,000 US and Coalition lives lost in that pointless war....but no I agree, Obama is the Amateur  . Obama only did what he thought was necessary and made the right decision. Even if the US didn't participate in this operation, don't you think that Iran would still err on the side of caution when it comes to giving up Nukes?

Quoting mham001 (Reply 250):
What motivated the French and British, we may never know. I suspect money and oil. Maybe a desire to eliminate the one guy who can implicate them in a prisoner/oil contract swap?

If they wanted to kill Gadhafi to silence him they could have done so covertly.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 251):
First mention so far of the word 'stalemate.' I don't expect that it'll be the last. You'd have thought that 'they' would already have learned that lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan?

this has nothing to do with a stalemate. Their objectives in a no fly zone had nothing to do with killing/ousting Gadhafi, but making sure that he doesn't attack his own people with war planes. Again, if they wanted to kill Gadhafi, they could've easily done so covertly, or drop a pair of 2,000lb bombs on his home and go "oops, my bad".
"The brave don't live forever, but the cautious don't live at all."
 
U2380
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:58 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 261):
Englands own David Camaron has led the political charge

Politically?

David Cameron is the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
There is more than one country in the United Kingdom. David Cameron ‘represents’ all of them, in matters of foreign policy.

Is that beyond your ability to comprehend?
 
baroque
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:04 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 261):
Apparently, pointing out that Englands own David Camaron has led the political charge (along with Sarkozy) is beyond your ability to comprehend.

Does this help? From Wiki:

David William Donald Cameron (pronunciation: /ˈkæmərən/; born 9 October 1966) is the current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, First Lord of the Treasury, Minister for the Civil Service and Leader of the Conservative Party. Cameron represents Witney as its Member of Parliament (MP).
 
baroque
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:07 pm

As was pointed out:
"There is more than one country in the United Kingdom." One of those countries is England and last time I checked it did not have an Air Force, so I rather uncertain how England would try to enforce a no-fly zone.
 
mham001
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:11 pm

Quoting U2380 (Reply 263):

David Cameron is the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
There is more than one country in the United Kingdom. David Cameron ‘represents’ all of them, in matters of foreign policy.

Ok then. No problem. If you insist, we can also include the Scottish, Irish and Welsh as equally culpable in leading us into this mess. Better now?
 
U2380
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:29 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 266):
Scottish, Irish and Welsh

Only Northern Ireland/Irish
 
Quoting mham001 (Reply 266):
leading us into this mess.

That's a matter of personal opinion. You can point the finger of 'blame' at whichever countries you wish. Ignorance is bliss.

I assume you were/are ‘privy’ with the formalities of this engagement?

[Edited 2011-03-22 10:31:06]

[Edited 2011-03-22 10:32:16]
 
baroque
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:40 pm

Not really. It is the United Kingdom that is a member of the United Nations.

One could perhaps forgive Hitler for not understanding he was at war with the UK rather than the English, but how is it that some denizens of a nation (that mentions in its name that it is a federation of states) have difficulty in figuring out that England is part of a union. That union even has a flag called the Union Jack. The cross of St George is visible at Ashes cricket matches but not normally in the UK military.

Quoting futurepilot16 (Reply 262):
Again, if they wanted to kill Gadhafi, they could've easily

You might find that potting Gaddafi is as difficult as it was to pot Saddam and could even be as difficult as it is still proving to be the case for OBL.

[Edited 2011-03-22 10:42:08]
 
aloges
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:48 pm

Quoting CometII (Reply 81):
Sorely dissapointed in the German government.

You and me both. I can't wait until this embarrassment is out of office!
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
GDB
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 6:39 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 261):
pparently, pointing out that Englands own David Camaron has led the political charge (along with Sarkozy) is beyond your ability to comprehend.

Still not got the name right?
Yes, I know that Cameron, as well as Sarkozy, were keen to establish a NFZ, back when the rebels looked to have the upper hand and Gaddfi's air power looked to be an instrument of not only attacking the uprising, since there is also some history of him using air power very indiscriminately, during the 1980's when he had ambitions in Chad. (For ambitions read the uranium mined there).
Using jet fighters and even TU-22 bombers against villages.
The French, assisting the Chadians (a former French colony), eventually ran his forces out of Chad by 1987.

Think on that. In this period, he supported just about every terrorist group known to man.
He effectively supplanted US Citizens as the main fund-er/armourer of the IRA, then there was Palestine groups (not the PLO - far too moderate for him), the Japanese Red Army, European far left terror groups, 'Carlos the Jackal'. Islamists in the Philippines and many more.

Given the concern in more recent years about extremist groups getting hold of nuclear material, just imagine if his ambitions in Chad had gone unchecked in the 1980's?
Though virtually unknown outside of France, the operations to deny him this were far more effective than that US raid in 1986, to which his response was the UTA DC-10 bombing, PA103, even more weapons for the IRA (the US F-111's used UK bases).

So slag off the British and French if you will, fact is the latter likely prevented nuclear material ever getting into Gaddafi's hands.

To the present, quite understandably the US is loath to get into another conflict, many in the UK feel the same too.
But the situation changed, that 'charge' did lead to the UN resolution now, US diplomatic pressure allowed it to be relevant to the situation that emerged last week of a city of 700,000 being at Gaddafi's mercy - or as he himself remarked - lack of it.
US diplomatic muscle almost certainly prevented Russia and China vetoing the resolution, that would have taken time and a lot of persuasion/arm twisting.

A pure NFZ only resolution will have been useless to prevent a total, bloody, final Gaddafi victory.
And this time, the accusations of the 'Europeans wanting the US to fight for them' is contradicted by the initial French air-strikes on Saturday that prevented Benghazi from falling, the UK contribution too, with others following not far behind.
Not to say that there are not deep reservations and fears of how this will play out.

However, events on the ground in Libya have dictated the change from a mooted 'pure NFZ' to the broader resolution.
France is committed in Afghanistan too, the UK even more so (with the coffins to prove it), there are questions about how long this operation in Libya can be sustained beyond the political.

The ball is in the rebel's court, they don't as yet have the organisation to match their fervour.
Best result? When the uprising started, numbers of Gaddafi's military defected, including some jet fighters.
Hence his use of foreign mercenaries (he has never fully trusted his armed forces), so hopefully the military pressure exerted by the Coalition, with the legal backing on the UN, will push more of them to defect/depose Gaddafi and his vile family. Once self preservation kicks in.

There is no appetite in either the US or Europe to put troops in, politically unacceptable nationally as well as internationally.
Unless other Arab states do, but then they seem to take the view that while they want Gaddafi gone as much as anyone, better the 'infidels' do the dirty work - helps them domestically with their populace - if it goes tits up, they can have the blame too.
Want to point fingers, that's the place to start.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 7:05 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 270):
Want to point fingers, that's the place to start.

I believe you are correct with all that. None of that gives the US reason to eliminate Kadafi now. Better the devil we know than the devil we don't (National Libyan Liberation Group).

BTW, my criticisms are directed mainly at my own country. Others may or may not have strategic reasons for pursuing this. We don't.
 
windy95
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 7:14 pm

So it looks like for our European Alllies this is a good war as opposed to Iraq which was a bad one   Is this a war for Oil or to Keep tens of thousands of Muslim refugees from steaming into the EU. Or are they doing this out of the goodness of their hearts. Who is next up? Iran ? Syria ? Mexico ? Darfur ? Because if this is for humanitarian reasons to save the people of Benghazi it seems to me that there have been (Iraq) and still are (Iran) better candidates to use our good will on to protect the people. Let them fight there own civil war or let the Arab militaries help them instead of making us look like the bad guys again.

Here in the U.S we would save more people if we set up a No Fly zone over Northern Mexico. Far more people have been and continue to be slaughtered in Mexico than there has been or will be in Libya.
 
JJJ
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 7:39 pm

Quoting windy95 (Reply 272):
So it looks like for our European Alllies this is a good war as opposed to Iraq which was a bad one Is this a war for Oil or to Keep tens of thousands of Muslim refugees from steaming into the EU

Iraq was bad because it was based on either poorly collected intelligence or deliberately inflated or even fabricated data. It did not help the shifting reasons going from 'he has WMD and must be stopped' to 'well, he was a bad guy and did lots of bad things to his citizens 20 years ago so we had to take him out' when the hard facts started to surface.

Gaddafi is waging war on his own people right now, there's ample, unquestionable evidence.

Quoting windy95 (Reply 272):
Here in the U.S we would save more people if we set up a No Fly zone over Northern Mexico.

That's the first time I hear cartels have MiGs airstriking each other.
 
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Aesma
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:30 pm

I'm not sure how it can be argued the Iraq war protected anyone. Last I checked there were between 100 000 and 1 000 000 Iraqi casualties, some call it a genocide.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
windy95
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:18 am

Quoting JJJ (Reply 273):
Gaddafi is waging war on his own people right now, there's ample, unquestionable evidence

So what.. What was he supposed to do? And why is it our problem? Who are we backing? How can we pick which situation is a good one and which one is bad? Libya is no threat to the United States so we have no right to do this. This is the exact same arguments for Iraq. We have no right to do this and Obama has no authority to do this without congress.
 
BMI727
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:25 am

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 255):
I see, so American power acts only out of noble intentions,

We should probably quit that since it gets rather expensive. Ironic that opposing the war in Iraq is something associated with liberals.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 259):
If the two run against each other in the coming election, Putin has my vote.

If I were a Russian I would have to agree. Distasteful as some might find it, Machiavelli wasn't wrong.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
JJJ
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:39 am

Quoting windy95 (Reply 275):
We have no right to do this and Obama has no authority to do this without congress.

I thought you were saying something about "our European allies" what does Obama have to do with that?
 
cpd
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:44 am

Can we please try and keep on topic?
 
AeroWesty
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:16 am

Quoting cpd (Reply 278):
Can we please try and keep on topic?

I second the motion.   

In other news, it looks like the first equipment casualty has occurred, a US F-15E went down due to "mechanical problems" over Benghazi.

Libya: US planes 'dropped two bombs' to protect downed pilot

Earlier reports of several Libyan civilians injured in the effort to rescue the pilot and his weapons officer were called baseless, but are being investigated by the USAAF regardless.
International Homo of Mystery
 
cpd
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:24 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 279):
Earlier reports of several Libyan civilians injured in the effort to rescue the pilot and his weapons officer were called

The reports are that one of them was rescued by civilians, he thought he was in big trouble, but they embraced the officer and thanked him for saving them from Gaddafi's forces. And apparently there was a queue of people lining up to shake his hand. If it's true - it just shows how terrified the poor people were.
 
NAV20
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:58 am

Quoting futurepilot16 (Reply 262):
this has nothing to do with a stalemate. Their objectives in a no fly zone had nothing to do with killing/ousting Gadhafi, but making sure that he doesn't attack his own people with war planes. Again, if they wanted to kill Gadhafi, they could've easily done so covertly, or drop a pair of 2,000lb bombs on his home and go "oops, my bad".

futurepilot16, in my opinion, because it involves people dying on both sides, no military operation should be launched unless it has a sound plan, clear objectives, and a good (say 75%) chance of success. All the evidence is that this developing mess enjoyed none of that.

For a start, the 'no fly zone' of itself would not have prevented Gaddafi continuing to 'attack his own people.' It might have stopped his army enjoying air support, but it wouldn't have deprived them of the armour and artillery to which the rebels had no answer. So it was certain from the beginning that, under the cover of patrolling the 'no fly zone,' the true role of the Coalition air forces would have to be giving close air support to the rebel forces.

They did that near Benghazi the other day, knocking out all that armour and artillery. Now they're helping the rebels to capture Adjdabiya and to defend Misurata.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...bya-ajdabiya-gaddafi-forces-rebels

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...-us-libya-20110323,0,7743643.story

Trouble is, as I've said, the 'end-game' of any 'plan' to stop Gaddafi would have to be military occupation. But the 'Coalition' didn't dare even suggest another Iraq/Afghanistan scenario. So my guess is that the intention from the start (from Obama, Cameron, and Sarkozy down) was to destroy the Libyan Air Force and armoured forces and give close air and logistic support to the rebels, so that they could fight and win a civil war.

That, in my opinion, has to have been the plan from the start. And it may well succeed; without air cover, and deprived of their heavy weapons, the Libyan Army may well be defeated by the (probably more numerous) rebels - especially since the latter WILL have the benefit of air cover and support from the whole of NATO.

'Quite like old times' for people like Baroque and I  . The 'geography' of Libya is pretty simple; there is only really the coast road, with a series of towns strung along it. Back in the early 1940s Rommel's Italians and Germans, and British Commonwealth forces, fought back and forth along it, virtually all the way from Cairo to Tripoli, for two whole years! With one notable exception, when the Australian Ninth Division in 1941 refused to surrender Tobruk during one of Rommel's pushes, and instead held it for eight months until Commonwealth forces counter-attacked. Finally the Commonwealth forces, under Montgomery, comprehensively defeated the Axis at El Alamein (near Cairo) in November 1942 and pushed them all the way back to Tunisia.

I expect the rebels and the 'Coalition' will win this one in the end, though. The Libyan Army won't be as 'motivated' as the guys in 1940, especially under air attack to which they have no answer. After that the only remaining question will be, what sort of people are the rebels; and will they turn out to be any more cooperative than Gaddafi?

[Edited 2011-03-22 20:02:30]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
baroque
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:01 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 281):
After that the only remaining question will be, what sort of people are the rebels; and will they turn out to be any more cooperative than Gaddafi?

Well at least they seem friendly as evidenced by.

Quoting cpd (Reply 280):
And apparently there was a queue of people lining up to shake his hand. If it's true - it just shows how terrified the poor people were.

And they did ask for assistance!!

Those two aspects do seem to make comparisons with Iraq more invalid than some would like to think.

Not that I am advocating it, but this time a ground force might well be greeted with flowers and sweets.

Cyrenaica was indeed the area of the "table tennis" contest between the Italians and the Allies and then Rommel and the Allies. It is also not that far from where the Life of Brian was filmed in Tunisia. Hope the script for the Life of Libya does not follow the script of the Life of Brian.

In other analogies, the rebels in Benghazi might have a bit in common with the Rats of Tobruk once they get more organized.

Makes you wonder if the Tornado base in the UK should not be renamed "Much-Binding-in-the-Marsh"
http://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-bes3.htm
Some of the pilots should be able to say:
“Did I ever tell you about the time I was over Sidi Barrani?” "In" altered to "over".

It begins to look as if the "Our dictator" definitions now depend on how strong the Right wing in the US feels itself to be. But it is a rather strange backflip to start, in effect, supporting Gaddafi.

A more important question in all this, how to assist the rebellion if, as now seems the case, the Gaddafi lot have figured out that sitting out in the desert you might as well paint a target on top of your tank. Whereas lurking in a built up area is going to present a much more difficult targeting challenge. At least from fast jets. Would attack helicopters count as a ground force?

And where are Egypt and Turkey? We know why many of the Arab nations are not flocking to help, their rulers feel just a bit compromised, worried and half a dozen other reasons for being reluctant. It does appear that some assistance is being rendered by Egypt but maybe they don't want that advertised. Where is DG?
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13899
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:32 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 281):
'Quite like old times' for people like Baroque and I . The 'geography' of Libya is pretty simple; there is only really the coast road, with a series of towns strung along it. Back in the early 1940s Rommel's Italians and Germans, and British Commonwealth forces, fought back and forth along it, virtually all the way from Cairo to Tripoli, for two whole years! With one notable exception, when the Australian Ninth Division in 1941 refused to surrender Tobruk during one of Rommel's pushes, and instead held it for eight months until Commonwealth forces counter-attacked. Finally the Commonwealth forces, under Montgomery, comprehensively defeated the Axis at El Alamein (near Cairo) in November 1942 and pushed them all the way back to Tunisia.

I expect the rebels and the 'Coalition' will win this one in the end, though. The Libyan Army won't be as 'motivated' as the guys in 1940, especially under air attack to which they have no answer. After that the only remaining question will be, what sort of people are the rebels; and will they turn out to be any more cooperative than Gaddafi?

I understand that Libya is still quite a tribal society. Ghadaffi comes from a tribe in the west of Libya and, while most oil fields are located in the east, has been funneling the revenue mainly to his native region in the west and to his own tribe, which was one reason why he is hated so much in the eadt (there have been uprisings there before).

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
ozglobal
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:51 am

Quoting mham001 (Reply 258):
In fact, based upon the standards I hear argued here for interdiction, we should have intervened during the Muslim French riots of '06. What about the pension riots of '10? Police violently suppressing the will of the people, massive arrests and deaths....

Please enlighten us about these "Muslim" riots. I have lived in central Paris since Jan 2003 and have no idea what you are talking about. There have been no "Muslim French riots" that I am aware of. The greatest unrest was in 2005, which went on for several weeks, and there is no serious suggestion that it was 'Islamic' in motivation: half the proptagonists were youths of West African origin, mainly with Catholic backgrounds and about half North African arabs with muslim backgrounds. The issues related to ongoing feelings of socio-economic marginalizaiton and police bias against them (nothing specifically Islamic here). France's muslim population is amongst the most secular in the world, even if it is large in number and has some harder core elements. Socio-political unrest, sure, but I don't think you know what you're talking about on this one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_civil_unrest_in_France

" Pension riots of '10" ??? This was normal political activism in France. "Massive deaths". Are you for real??? Sources?? Please correct your erroneous post with a retraction.
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
NAV20
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:44 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 283):
I understand that Libya is still quite a tribal society.

As I understand it, MD11Engineer, it's more a matter of separate 'provinces,' or even separate countries. What is now called 'Libya' has been occupied by other countries ever since Roman times. The Italians were the last occupiers, in the years before WW2; they originally governed the place as two separate colonies/provinces (Tripolitania and Cyrenaica) but later combined the two, for administrative convenience. There IS actually a third province (Fezzan) but that doesn't count for much as virtually no-one lives there:-

http://basementgeographer.blogspot.c...oducing-historical-regions-of.html

An obvious problem fomenting conflict, I believe, is that Tripolitania has most of the population but Cyrenaica (followed by Fezzan) has most of the readily-accessible oil. In a sane world, some sort of federation with both states having more self-governing powers would appear to have been a more promising solution than a civil war?

Quoting Baroque (Reply 282):
And they did ask for assistance!!

Those two aspects do seem to make comparisons with Iraq more invalid than some would like to think.

Not that I am advocating it, but this time a ground force might well be greeted with flowers and sweets.

Trouble is, Baroque, from press reports, that they ALSO asked for (and got) a categorical assurance that they will not be occupied.

So, on the face of it, they appear to have got all the air and logistical support they need to get rid of Gaddafi - after which they can do whatever they like? Up to and including setting up an Islamic republic, if they so choose?

[Edited 2011-03-23 02:51:03]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Quokka
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:15 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 283):
I understand that Libya is still quite a tribal society.


After coming to power Gaddafi tried to reduce the influence of the tribal leaders. He redrew administrative boundaries across tribal lines, creating regions and districts which were altered a number of times with the specific aim of removing the political power of the tribes. Despite his avowed anti-tribal views, Gaddafi has actually used divisions between the tribes to keep a tight rein.

Since the 1970s, modernisation has seen large numbers of people moving from tent villages to towns and cities. As work and education have drawn Libyans away from their native regions, tribal affiliations became less important though many of the country’s population still claim some identification with a specific tribe.

In the cities where people from several tribes may live, common problems has led people to unite across tribal lines in protest against the regime. The uprisings in Libya are popular, not tribal. The identification with the protest by some prominent tribesmen has broadened support for the opposition. The struggle itself may throw up its own leaders but the lack of clear structures could see tribal interests re-emerge.
 
iakobos
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:49 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 285):

So, on the face of it, they appear to have got all the air and logistical support they need to get rid of Gaddafi - after which they can do whatever they like? Up to and including setting up an Islamic republic, if they so choose?

The world at large would be better without a criminal nutcase as Gaddafi
Thanks to a major unrest in Cyrenaïca, there was an opportunity to remove him from (absolute) power or at least to sideline him for good, the West (in general) thought it could not be missed
Short of burying him in the sand, UNSCR 1973 gave the green light to erase a significant part of his military power

Now, our friend Muammar will play his favorite cat and mouse game. He will concentrate his remaining military assets inside cities, making future NATO raids unlikely. He is still in control of oil production and of most of the population and he is in a position to negotiate. He lost a finger or two but still has two hands.
Unless he looses his grip on his military, the situation is locked.

What about the "friendly insurgents" ? who are they ? what do they want ?
I am of the opinion that these are secondary questions at this stage.

How will this mess unfold ?
Looks to me some players gathered at a poker table and thought they would win the pot with a pair in hand.

The highly politically incorrect action, which a UN could never endorse but which would save a lot of lives, would have been to send Muammar to the afterworld.
It seems so obvious to me that I cannot believe it was not tried...
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:17 pm

Quoting windy95 (Reply 275):
So what.. What was he supposed to do? And why is it our problem? Who are we backing? How can we pick which situation is a good one and which one is bad? Libya is no threat to the United States so we have no right to do this. This is the exact same arguments for Iraq. We have no right to do this and Obama has no authority to do this without congress.

It is a striking irony for Obama who said a few years ago,

Quote:
“The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.”
http://www.ontheissues.org/Archive/2007_Exec_Power_Barack_Obama.htm

And here's more irony:

Quote:
MARCH 19, 2011
OBAMA: ‘Today we are part of a broad coalition. We are answering the calls of a threatened people. And we are acting in the interests of the United States and the world’…

MARCH 19, 2003
BUSH: ‘American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq, to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger’…

Knowing how a single person can act, the Founders put the power to declare war in the hands of Congress, not the President in order to make it hard to do. The response has been simply to not declare war, and have these sort of "police actions" and such.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 283):

I understand that Libya is still quite a tribal society. Ghadaffi comes from a tribe in the west of Libya and, while most oil fields are located in the east, has been funneling the revenue mainly to his native region in the west and to his own tribe, which was one reason why he is hated so much in the eadt (there have been uprisings there before).

This is true, and anyone thinking that Libya will become this nice democracy is delusional. Much like Iraq and Saddam, possibly even more, the tribes are interested in their own place in the power structure. Right now they are united in their Anti-Qaddafi stance, but little else. If Qaddafi is removed from power, the tribes will start fighting among themselves.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
NAV20
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:19 pm



Quoting iakobos (Reply 287):
The highly politically incorrect action, which a UN could never endorse but which would save a lot of lives, would have been to send Muammar to the afterworld.
It seems so obvious to me that I cannot believe it was not tried...

If my (very limited) experience in the '60s is anything to go by, iakobos, it's being (continuously) 'tried' as we speak. But 'second-hand,' 'hours-old' intelligence is relatively easy to come by. 'This-minute' stuff - information not just on where Gaddafi is at the moment, but on where he's going to be in say four hours time - is much more difficult to come by.

Firstly because your 'informants' would almost certainly pay with their lives for passing the info on. And secondly because Gaddafi would very likely just change his plans.......

[Edited 2011-03-23 05:21:29]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
baroque
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:12 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 285):
So, on the face of it, they appear to have got all the air and logistical support they need to get rid of Gaddafi - after which they can do whatever they like? Up to and including setting up an Islamic republic, if they so choose?

Could be, but it could be argued that this is less obvious an outcome than it was for Iraq could it not?? Especially if you accept an analysis like this.

Quoting Quokka (Reply 286):
In the cities where people from several tribes may live, common problems has led people to unite across tribal lines in protest against the regime. The uprisings in Libya are popular, not tribal. The identification with the protest by some prominent tribesmen has broadened support for the opposition. The struggle itself may throw up its own leaders but the lack of clear structures could see tribal interests re-emerge.

The oil revenue has not been entirely wasted. There have been brutal times such as when the European group of nurses was charged with infecting patients with HIV (which one might observe could even be considered an "improvement" on the last SA President who thought that HIV had nothing to do with AIDS!!!!). But the rebellion like that in Egypt had a distinctly secular look about it. Jihadis are probably a smaller group in Libya than many ME countries.

And we do know what would reduce the ability of the Jihadis to recruit. See for example a suggestion from that very radical gent Michael Portillo.
http://player.sbs.com.au/programs#/p...st/Closing-Down-Guatanamo-Full-Ep/

Just we persist in policies that give them oxygen. Let us hope that Libya serves to reduce that oxygen supply rather than increase it. In other words, have we learned anything from Iraq and Afghanistan?
 
iakobos
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:30 pm

ELINT has such an array of monitoring capabilities nowadays that one person in one specific city like Tripoli, whom obviously does not move alone on his sandals and depends on communication means and a sizable security detail, cannot be tracked in real-time with a high probability of being positively identified.
For me it is a political matter and Mr Obama, for a variety of (very solid) reasons, cannot push the red button.
 
NAV20
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:38 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 290):
Just we persist in policies that give them oxygen. Let us hope that Libya serves to reduce that oxygen supply rather than increase it. In other words, have we learned anything from Iraq and Afghanistan?

Sure, Baroque - sincerely hope there is still 'room for hope.'

Still recall those far-off days in Germany though - the agents mostly used to call us on payphones at lunchtime or at the Bahnhof (main railway station) on their way home, almost impossible to trace or monitor such calls at that time. Our operators were drilled to end every conversation by saying, "Hals und Beinbruch!"

Almost impossible to translate, but - as far as I know - it's an ironic skiing term that basically means (in colloquial English), "Press on - hope you only break a leg."

Nowadays ANY phone call (especially if it's made on a mobile) goes by radio at some stage - meaning that they're ALL (or at least all MAY be) eminently 'traceable.'

Just strikes me that intelligence-espionage - like just about any other military field - has got a LOT more complicated (and risky) nowadays...............

[Edited 2011-03-23 06:57:49]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:45 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 270):
Using jet fighters and even TU-22 bombers against villages.

Don't you mean SU-22's...? As far as I know, the Libyan AF doesn't have TU-22's.

Cheers!   
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
Severnaya
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 3:36 pm

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 293):
As far as I know, the Libyan AF doesn't have TU-22's.

They do have some, however they are most likely not in flying conditions anymore.
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GDB
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 6:45 pm

Lifelinerone, they did once;

From MILAVIA

Libyan Tu-22 Blinders were delivered from 1977 to 1983. The exact number remains a mystery, some say 12 to 18 while other reports only indicate 7 or 8 aircraft. The Libyan Tu-22s were based at Obka Ben Nafi Air Base near Tripoli. At least four were lost during combat in Chad and elsewhere in the 1980s. One of the Tu-22s was downed by a French NIM-23 Hawk battery, the cockpit section was found with inside all three dead East German crew members. It is thought that 6 to 8 Tu-22s remain in the inventory. These are probably not operational, given the low level of pilot training, shortage of spares and the Tu-22 maintenance problems.
 
Confuscius
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:11 pm

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 24):
The following ships are off the Libyan coast

Add the guided-missile destroyer USS Barry. I believe the first naval ship named after a current president!

  
Ain't I a stinker?
 
AGM100
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:46 pm

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 296):
Add the guided-missile destroyer USS Barry



You mean the one that would lay a anti shipping mine then do a 360 and be sunk by it....    Kidding .

I don't like this coalition cracking talk going on ... I don't know all the details of course , but the press is making it sound bad. Could we possibly end this engagement and leave quaky in power ??? What happens if he sue's for peace ... and agrees to "elections" in the future . ?? What then .... ?
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
iakobos
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:46 pm

Quoting iakobos (Reply 291):
cannot be tracked

Sorry, I meant "can be tracked" of course.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 292):
Nowadays ANY phone call (especially if it's made on a mobile) goes by radio at some stage - meaning that they're ALL (or at least all MAY be) eminently 'traceable.'

This is only valid if you know which subscriber to monitor (no), the network is active (not sure), and you can access it (definitely yes).
I doubt there is a SIM card registered under the name Muammar Gaddafi.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 297):
What happens if he sue's for peace ... and agrees to "elections" in the future . ?? What then .... ?

The Arab League will jump with joy and everybody can go home.
 
Mortyman
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RE: No Fly Zone Over Libya?

Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:04 pm

F-16s of the Royal Norwegian Airforce at the Souda Bay Base in Greece:


http://media.aftenposten.no/archive/01454/_G-Tittel-souda1_1_1454155a.jpg

http://media.aftenposten.no/archive/01454/libya6_G-Tittel-li_1454054x.jpg

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/159/159251/15925135/jpg/active/978x.jpg

http://static.vg.no/uploaded/image/2011/3/22/TS_f163_834_0.jpg


Pictures curtesy of Norwegian media sources; Aftenposten, Dagbladet, VG and NRK
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