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nighthawk
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Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 2:39 pm

Quote:

What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth – far from facing a global warming problem – is actually headed into a mini Ice Age.

Source: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/

Despite the fact we are now into the start of the 23rd solar cycle, the number of sun spots is decreasing, suggesting we may be about to experience a "Maunder Minimum", in which case we can expect to see a mini ice age.

So much for our climate being affected by carbon emissions then! Perhaps we should all increase our carbon footprints and try and stave off the ice age?
 
Superfly
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:01 pm

So does Al Gore have to give back his Oscar and Nobel Peace Prize?
Will federal CAFE laws be lifted finally?
Will our utility rates necessarily nosedive?
Bring back the Concorde
 
Rara
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:16 pm

This is highly speculative. If it indeed happens, then our carbon emissions become less relevant. If it doesn't, we still have the same problems we have now.

All in all, it doesn't change anything - particularly not the science behind climate change.

Quoting nighthawk (Thread starter):
Perhaps we should all increase our carbon footprints

That's precisely what we're doing right now.
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baroque
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:23 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
All in all, it doesn't change anything - particularly not the science behind climate change.

In particular, if there is a major decrease in solar input, it would not cool down the oceans for a few decades.
 
MarSciGuy
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:28 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 1):
So does Al Gore have to give back his Oscar and Nobel Peace Prize?
Will federal CAFE laws be lifted finally?
Will our utility rates necessarily nosedive?

The fact that the atmosphere today contains much higher levels of CO2 than it did in the late 17th century, coupled with the oceans status as a carbon sink (that is close to maxed out FWIW) all point to the strong possibility that warming may not be over persay...the carbon dioxide is still there and won't go away just because there are sunspots.

These are only the abstracts of papers relating to a) carbon sequestration in the oceans (natural) and ice core data... however, if you want to read more, wikipedia has pretty decent articles on both.

http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2586

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/28...=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT
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Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:36 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
This is highly speculative. If it indeed happens, then our carbon emissions become less relevant. If it doesn't, we still have the same problems we have now.

If such a relatively short-term dip in solar output should actually happen, it would be highly dangerous to punp up the greenhouse effect during that time – it would not help much in the beginning and there would be hell to pay when the sun ramped up again while the greenhouse effect had been boosted during this relatively short period.

The time scales are just too disparate. We can't just shut down the greenhouse effct as fast as we would need to at the end of a solar low radiation phase.

Reacting to such speculation with glee is as misplaced as when your heating broke in winter while you were sick with a fever. Two misfortunes just don't cancel each other out in most cases - quite to the contrary!
 
BMI727
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:01 pm

The truth is that nobody knows anything for sure and any adamant views on the effects of CO2 in the atmosphere are probably corrupted by politics.
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agill
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:08 pm

The acidification of the oceans would still be a problem.
 
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:25 pm

The flat earth brigade could jump on this to "prove" that the massive scientific consensus about the effect of CO2 buildup in the atmosphere is "wrong"--but that logic is about as strong as saying that since life-spans have increased over the 20th century, as did smoking, that that proves that the scientific consensus that smoking causes cancer is wrong.   
There can be totally different processes happening at the same time.

And to all those who keep insisting that humans can have no effect on the planet's natural systems, do you honestly believe that if we launched hundreds of nuclear warheads, life on earth would be unaffected overall as well? It seems to me totally clear that human activity has a major effect on the planet, whether dramatically in the short term, as in the nuclear war example, or environmentally in the long term. Will the "earth" survive global warming? You betcha. It doesn't care. Cockroaches will surely make it as well. Will human life as we know it be unaffected by global warming? No. There will be mass extinctions that change ecosystems, famines, wars, human migrations, etc.
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baroque
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:04 pm

Quoting n229nw (Reply 8):
There can be totally different processes happening at the same time.

   One favourite that has possible relevance is the positive correlation in the UK between the number of TV licences and admissions to mental hospitals.

Michael Flanders had a nice line in at the Drop of a Hat (or another Hat, I forget which) about the song "There'll always be an England". He commented "Of course there will always be an England, there will always be a North Pole, if some clown does not go and melt it."

And it appears some clowns are close to doing just that. And as Klaus suggests, some are quite gleeful about doing that.

But it is fascinating that the effect of carbon dioxide concentration on temperatures is so speculative, whereas the effects of sunspot frequency and intensity has a known agreed effect on temperatures. Such a relief that a part of physics is true. Now if only they could prove gravity.
 
Maverick623
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 7:25 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
This is highly speculative.

So a report that doesn't agree with your doomsday global warming scenario, even though it contains proven science, is "speculative", but correlating a slight increase in global mean temperature with human CO2 output is sound?
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rlwynn
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 7:28 pm

Glad I bought a 4X4 then. Everybody said I was wasting my money.
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 7:46 pm

This is a lucky break for earth. It gives us about 50 years leeway to really cut emissions down. China in particular needs to stop building dirty coal power stations and start building high efficiency plants (coupled with renewables). I'm sick of hearing the same old argument that the West has made mega £$€ in the past polluting. The simple fact was that the West developed 1st. It went through the process and expense of developing these technologies (only for China to come along and reverse-engineer/steal them). Yes the West needs to cut, but China needs limits too (already it is the worlds biggest emitter even though it's economy is not half the size of the USA).
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PlymSpotter
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:43 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
One favourite that has possible relevance is the positive correlation in the UK between the number of TV licences and admissions to mental hospitals.

Especially if they get Channel 5  
Quoting zkpilot (Reply 12):
This is a lucky break for earth. It gives us about 50 years leeway to really cut emissions down.

Agreed. I don't care if people want to argue about the potential emissions have for global warming - in fact I'll gladly join that debate because I'm not convinced many of the predictions have been formulated from a broad enough data range to earn the accuracy they are portrayed with, but concurrently it needs to be realised that you can't release billions and billions of tonnes of greenhouse gasses into an atmosphere without having at least some affect. That is simple science which is impossible to deny. But just because we are still arguing about the warming potential, process and results doesn't mean we shouldn't start doing something about it right now - otherwise if we wait, we will wait forever.


Dan  
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racko
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:28 pm

http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/sh.../new-ice-age-dont-count-on-it.html

"Let's assume that grand minima really do cool Earth's climate: not every climate scientist is convinced of that, but for the sake of argument let's go with it. Now the question becomes: how much do they cool it, and for how long?

The straightforward answer is: not enough. Last year researchers modelled what would happen to global temperatures if a grand minimum started now and continued until 2100. They found that it would lower temperatures by 0.3 °C at most.

That's not enough to compensate for our greenhouse gas emissions, which are set to raise temperatures by 2-4.5 °C by 2100. So in the most optimistic scenario, in which the grand minimum has the biggest effect possible and emissions their smallest, a rise of 2 °C would be reduced to 1.7 °C.

That isn't a new ice age: it's a slightly less severe heatwave."
 
NoUFO
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:39 pm

That's so laughable ...

1) The so called "Maunder Minimum" and the corresponding "mini ice age" was probably caused by more than just a smaller than usual number of sunspots. In addition to those it was most likely caused by a lower than usual concentration of carbon dioxides in the atmosphere and a high number of volcanic eruptions.

2) We are now into over two and a half years into the 24th (not 23rd) cycle, and this new minimum was already addressed by climatologists more than a year ago. According to them, even an extensive new minimum would lower the global temperature by only 0.3°C by 2100 - as opposed to an increase in temperature by 4°C if the current emissions of carbon dioxides continue. So there won't be a new ice age.

3) None of the two sources the article mentions, NASA and NSO, actually mention the possibility of a new ice age. The quotes you can find on The Register (and many blogs and "news sources") are taken out of context.
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NoUFO
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:42 pm

I support the right to arm bears
 
NoUFO
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:01 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 6):
any adamant views on the effects of CO2 in the atmosphere are probably corrupted by politics.

By the Chinese, Indian, Brazilian or Russian politicians? None of them support cap & trade as this would probably hamper their economic growth rate. Nor do Middle Eastern states favor cap & trade, and even in the U.S., eastern Europe, Canada and Australia the topic is at the very least a controversial one.
Due to their large population those countries, however, have a big impact on the IPCC.
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Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:23 pm

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 10):
So a report that doesn't agree with your doomsday global warming scenario, even though it contains proven science, is "speculative", but correlating a slight increase in global mean temperature with human CO2 output is sound?

The plausibility of different scenarios does not follow from the little snippets you read in the media, it follows from the substance of scientific research behind them.

And in that respect climate change is supported by a large number of independent studies and observations which at the same time are largely consistent with each other, while the theory about a solar radiation minimum is based on a relatively uncertain data set, not least because the number of previous events is effectively just 1, with a number of additional factors going into it back then which are now absent and vice versa.

So yes, there are good reasons why at this point the plausibility of both scenarios is seen as very different.

The possibility of an attenuation of solar radiation is not by itself inconsistent with any major body of research as far as I'm aware – there is just too little evidence and historical knowledge to stand on for making really accurate predictions about it.

Quoting racko (Reply 14):
That's not enough to compensate for our greenhouse gas emissions, which are set to raise temperatures by 2-4.5 °C by 2100. So in the most optimistic scenario, in which the grand minimum has the biggest effect possible and emissions their smallest, a rise of 2 °C would be reduced to 1.7 °C.

That isn't a new ice age: it's a slightly less severe heatwave."

And it would most likely be followed by an even more accelerated heat wave.
 
BMI727
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:24 am

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 17):
By the Chinese, Indian, Brazilian or Russian politicians?

By anyone. Any person who tells you that CO2 will absolutely warm the earth or absolutely cool the earth is lying to you and likely working for some politically motivated group. The simple truth is that people just don't know what the effect on climate is and to say otherwise is BS.

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 17):
None of them support cap & trade as this would probably hamper their economic growth rate.

I don't either just because I don't care what CO2 does. I like hydrocarbons more than polar bears.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
mham001
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:07 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 5):
The time scales are just too disparate. We can't just shut down the greenhouse effct as fast as we would need to at the end of a solar low radiation phase.
Quoting NoUFO (Reply 15):
2) We are now into over two and a half years into the 24th (not 23rd) cycle, and this new minimum was already addressed by climatologists more than a year ago. According to them, even an extensive new minimum would lower the global temperature by only 0.3°C by 2100 - as opposed to an increase in temperature by 4°C if the current emissions of carbon dioxides continue. So there won't be a new ice age.

Probably not a good time for a major industrial country to shut off it's nuclear power plants just to rely on coal, is it?
 
NoUFO
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:50 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
Quoting NoUFO (Reply 17):
By the Chinese, Indian, Brazilian or Russian politicians?

By anyone.

This makes little sense. None of them will stress the urgency of atmospheric CO2 reduction.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
Any person who tells you that CO2 will absolutely warm the earth or absolutely cool the earth is lying to you

I have yet to come across a person who says CO2 would cool the earth.
'Lie' is a big word and you would have to substantiate your claim that climate scientists have lied to us for more than 100 years.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
The simple truth is that people just don't know what the effect on climate is

That's not the simple truth but simply hogwash. That CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas has been known for more than hundred years.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
likely working for some politically motivated group

the U.S. National Academy of Sciences,
the American Meteorological Society,
the American Association for the Advancement of Science,
the American Geophysical Union
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

to name only five U.S. institutions work for which politically motivated group exactly?

'Skeptics' are indeed working for politically motivated groups, such as CFACT, Heartland and other interest groups.

Quoting mham001 (Reply 20):
Probably not a good time for a major industrial country to shut off it's nuclear power plants just to rely on coal, is it?

Indeed, *if* it were to rely on coal.
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BMI727
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 6:02 am

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 21):
That CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas has been known for more than hundred years.

But what effect it will actually have on the climate is unknown.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
NoUFO
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 6:28 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):
But what effect it will actually have on the climate is unknown.

Please elaborate.
How can we know that C02 is a potent greenhouse gas without knowing its effect on the climate?
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baroque
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 6:31 am

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 10):
Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
This is highly speculative.

So a report that doesn't agree with your doomsday global warming scenario, even though it contains proven science, is "speculative", but correlating a slight increase in global mean temperature with human CO2 output is sound?

Some of the science is OK, but extending the basic observations to some of the conclusions is indeed much more speculative than the modal conclusions about the effects of carbon dioxide concentrations on climate. The leap to another ice age seems not to have been in the original publications as best I can work out. That is a leap similar to the (incorrect) claims that the climate has been cooling since 1998, VERY similar!
 
BMI727
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 6:46 am

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 23):
How can we know that C02 is a potent greenhouse gas without knowing its effect on the climate?

Because there are all sorts of interdependent factors that go into it. Like pollution that can act as a negative feedback and reflect sunlight rather than trap it. Or what if polar ice melts and cools the ocean? Nobody knows for sure what will happen, or even if what happens will necessarily be bad.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
baroque
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 6:54 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 25):
Or what if polar ice melts and cools the ocean?

Sigh. If polar ice melts, there is a net gain of heat to the ocean compared with an "ice + water" system. Then after it has melted, more heat goes into the ocean due to greater absorption of solar energy by water compared with ice.

Alternatively, "what if polar ice melts and cools the ocean as by the time that happens gravity will be working in reverse?"

[Edited 2011-06-16 00:41:51]
 
NoUFO
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:20 am

BMI727, you can twist it all the way you want.
The fact remains: Models have successfully reproduced climate and temperatures since 1900. They would not if we had no idea what the rising CO2 level would do. And that anthropogenic CO2 is the most important driving force behind global warming is known and confirmed by observations.
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PlymSpotter
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:10 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
Any person who tells you that CO2 will absolutely warm the earth or absolutely cool the earth is lying to you and likely working for some politically motivated group. The simple truth is that people just don't know what the effect on climate is and to say otherwise is BS.

No, the very simple science is that Co2 and other greenhouse gases absolutely do warm the atmosphere, the only one with any cooling potential is water vapor. The greenhouse affect is not an anthropogenic system, it's been keeping our planet habitable for hundreds of millions if not billions of years and is really not something you can credibly question I'm afraid.


Dan  
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dxing
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted N

Thu Jun 16, 2011 11:48 am

I see the usual dogmatics are here defending the religion at all costs. Those of you that would dare question the "science" are nothing more than modern day heritics you know.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):

Since the north pole is a geographic place, whether it is ice, water, or rock it will always be there no matter what the climate is around it. Just as it has been for billions of years.

The planet is going to do what the planet is going to do regardless of the ants on it called man. Anyone notice the uptick in seismic activity over the past decade? Can anyone remember a time when two huge tsunami's took as many lives in a single decade? Or when airspace was closed down by not one but 3 active volcanoes at one time? My point is, all the science in the world can't predict what the planet will do or exactly how it will react. There are far too many variables involved for any model made by man to anticipate. We can't accurately predict what governments and financial markets will do on a day to day basis, yet some seriously suggest they know what the climate will be like a century from now? I'll happily take the bet that they'll be completely wrong.

[Edited 2011-06-16 04:49:27]
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Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:19 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 20):
Probably not a good time for a major industrial country to shut off it's nuclear power plants just to rely on coal, is it?

Surely not, which is why no country is doing that.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):
Quoting NoUFO (Reply 21):
That CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas has been known for more than hundred years.

But what effect it will actually have on the climate is unknown.

"Unkown" is definitely false. The accuracy of the predictions of the detailed effects is not and cannot be 100%, but it isn't that anywhere – even the scientific expectation of gravity being there tomorrow as it was yesterday is not 100%, if just very slightly below it.

You are grasping for straws. There simply isn't any more reliable way of dealing with the real world than natural science. If history has taught us anything, this is one of the major points.
 
baroque
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:28 pm

Quoting dxing (Reply 29):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):

Since the north pole is a geographic place, whether it is ice, water, or rock it will always be there no matter what the climate is around it. Just as it has been for billions of years.

I suppose the poetic licence of Michael Flanders was aways going to be wasted on those who have not read Winnie the Pooh.

Sorry to quote this at length, but it makes about as much sense as most of the skeptics comments on the effects of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere.

When the rain began Pooh was asleep. It rained, and it rained, and it rained, and he slept and he slept and he slept. He had had a tiring day. You remember how he discovered the North Pole; well, he was so proud of this that he asked Christopher Robin if there were any other Poles such as a Bear of Little Brain might discover.
"There's a South Pole," said Christopher Robin, "and I expect there's an East Pole and a West Pole, though people don't like talking about them." Pooh was very excited when he heard this, and suggested that they should have an Expotition to discover the East Pole, but Christopher Robin had thought of something else to do with Kanga; so Pooh went out to discover the East Pole by himself. Whether he discovered it or not, I forget; but he was so tired when he got home that, in the very middle of his supper, after he had been eating for little more than half-an-hour, he fell fast asleep in his chair, and slept and slept and slept.
Then suddenly he was dreaming. He was at the East Pole, and it was a very cold pole with the coldest sort of snow and ice all over it. He had found a bee-hive to sleep in, but there wasn't room for his legs, so he had left them outside. And Wild Woozles, such as inhabit the East Pole, came and nibbled all the fur off his legs to make Nests for their Young. And the more they nibbled, the colder his legs got, until suddenly he woke up with an Ow! — and there he was, sitting in his chair with his feet in the water, and water all round him!
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:59 pm

Quoting dxing (Reply 29):
I see the usual dogmatics are here defending the religion at all costs.

Indeed. Just in case you've forgotten what the distinction is:

- science is when you extract predictions about future events from real-world observations or natural or experimental events and when you verify these predictions with repeated observations and weed out the ones which fail to be consistent with observations

- religion is when you don't understand what is going on and even refuse to investigate what's behind it all and still form rigid opinions about it on the basis of pure, untested presumption

Quoting dxing (Reply 29):
Those of you that would dare question the "science" are nothing more than modern day heritics you know.

Bring verifiable, consistent evidence and we can talk. And it's "heretics", while we're at the issue of correctness.

Quoting dxing (Reply 29):
My point is, all the science in the world can't predict what the planet will do or exactly how it will react.

Wrong. That is a logically fallacy, if a popular one in some circles.

That even natural science (our by far most reliable instrument of dealing with the real world) is not capable (and never will be!) to be 100% accurate about absolutely everything does not support the implication that absolutely nothing which is scientifically predicted could ever be correct, as you appear to believe.

Apart from being obviously false, this conclusion apparently requires an additional clarification:

The logical opposite of "everything" is not "nothing" but merely "not everything".

In this context meaning that natural science obviously makes predictions about the real world which may be affirmed or rejected depending on subsequent observations.

It is not always easy to affix a concrete probability to any scientific prediction, but being found to be consistent with a large number of independent observations and (from these) derived other theories which themselves have found to be valid does indeed raise the expectation of the main theory being correct as well.

You seem to be chasing an image of what science was supposed to be that is not consistent with what it actually is.

And yet there you sit, in the midst of thousands of artefacts of the most highly developed science-based civilizations in the (known) history of mankind and posting through a machine which entirely depends on the same kind of scientific research you seem to be denouncing here.

Ironic.
 
Quoting dxing (Reply 29):
There are far too many variables involved for any model made by man to anticipate.

...entirely. That is true, but natural science can almost never achieve that and never could.

And that's why science has long developed tools of dealing with probable outcomes of developments on the basis of observations which also by necessity contain some levels of uncertainty themselves ("noise").

Most of the technology around you was to a large extent created on the basis of scientific discoveries which themself are largely based on statistical calculations and analyses.

Quoting dxing (Reply 29):
We can't accurately predict what governments and financial markets will do on a day to day basis, yet some seriously suggest they know what the climate will be like a century from now?

Even stock markets and governments are both influenced by underlying longer-term systems, just as weather is influenced by the underlying climate.

And in either case there are very much factors in the underlying systems which can be analyzed and in many cases predicted up to a certain accuracy.

If a government keeps getting into debt, the interest will eventually become a major burden on the state and on the economy. That is known and a sound prediction.

Pushing the greenhouse effect is to an increaing reliability known to push the worldwide climate towards warmer temperatures. Also very likely a sound prediction.

And while the short-term variations of the respective dependent systems can of course cause some confusion if one loses track of the underlying factors, that still doesn't change the reality of these longer-term developments or the validity of predictions made about them.

Quoting dxing (Reply 29):
I'll happily take the bet that they'll be completely wrong.

You're not nearly the first one to bet against science, and you won't be the last. Very few of these kinds of bets have ever been won, however. And you can be grateful for that.
 
Rara
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:36 pm

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 10):

So a report that doesn't agree with your doomsday global warming scenario, even though it contains proven science, is "speculative", but correlating a slight increase in global mean temperature with human CO2 output is sound?

First of all, it's not just a random correlation. The effect of the actual molecules on the atmosphere can be described - in other words, there is a reason CO2 will act as a greenhouse gas.
Second, there is nothing wrong with speculation. Yeah there could be a solar minimum coming, or possible not. We don't know, we will see. Each scenario has consequences, and it's fine to discuss them. Climate change, on the other hand, is not just speculation, since we're right in the middle of it.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
I like hydrocarbons more than polar bears.

... and, in extension, the millions of poor f*ckers in Bangladesh and elsewhere who will bear the brunt of the climatic changes, who you forgot to mention. Still, I appreciate your openness, honestly. I wish all opponents of reducing CO2 emissions were as up-front about it as you. That'd give the voting public much more of a choice.

It basically comes to down to this: what do we value more? Our own comfort today, cheap energy, economic growth, constant rise in consumption, no changes in behaviour? Or the hypothetical fate of the third-world's population and the general state of nature 80 years from now? If your answer is the first, then by all means say so! It's an entirely human reaction, just be honest about it.

Quoting mham001 (Reply 20):

Probably not a good time for a major industrial country to shut off it's nuclear power plants just to rely on coal, is it?

No it's not, it's a really bad time actually. See, in this country, we have our priorities as well. We rather protect ourself from what we perceive as imminent danger than protecting future generations (of mostly foreigners) from much graver dangers.

In many ways, we're worse than you guys in America. You don't give a damn about climate change, but as least you're pretty straightforward with it. In Germany, we act the same but still bang on and on about climate change while actually doing very little.

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 21):

Indeed, *if* it were to rely on coal.

Oh, we do.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
Derico
Posts: 4371
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:46 pm

Wow, this thread more than confirms my observations. Both sides, the environmentalists turned tree hugging fanatics in too many cases on the one hand, and the ''anti-global warming'' crowd, which began as a natural reaction to that extremism, but which has turned itself into an ideological dogma of' ''just say the word NO'' to ALL science (climatology, conservation, evolution, cosmology, even medicine in some cases), are exactly that.

Locos.

I really don't understand why people let ideology override every single other aspect of their lives. I guess it is marginally better than religion overriding life centuries ago (and still today in some parts) or nationalism last century... but not by much.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
mham001
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:53 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 30):

Surely not, which is why no country is doing that.

You admitted as much in the other thread Klaus. And said that Germany was rightly looking out for it's own interests. yet here you are once again preaching the CO2 garbage and forecasting the imminent end of the world. Everybody knows that Germany will not find another 20% of its energy needs in solar or wind in the next 8 years. Especially now with the wind patternas apparently changing.

So Klaus, as you were asked in the other thread, what is more important to the good German. Global warming or nuclear power?
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:06 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 35):
You admitted as much in the other thread Klaus.

No, I didn't "admit" any such thing.

Coal is still a far too large part of the energy mix, but there is simply no substitute to starting to change that. There is no doubt it will take quite a few years to get rid of most of it, but there is also little doubt that that's where we need to go.

Quoting mham001 (Reply 35):
Everybody knows that Germany will not find another 20% of its energy needs in solar or wind in the next 8 years.

"Everybody" also "knew" that it would have been completely crazy to think that Germany would arrive at 17% renewable energy sources by 2011. And yet here we are.

Conventional thinking rarely gives good advice when it's about thinking ahead of the status quo.

Quoting mham001 (Reply 35):
Especially now with the wind patternas apparently changing.

If anything, wind levels are likelier to increase around here.

Quoting mham001 (Reply 35):
So Klaus, as you were asked in the other thread, what is more important to the good German. Global warming or nuclear power?

It's never been an "either - or" question. This hypothetical antagonism is primarily a tool to justify total complacency for people who don't want to change anything – unfortunately the world around us keeps changing anyway, so we better keep up, or better yet, get ahead!
 
scamp
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:37 pm

Quoting nighthawk (Thread starter):
So much for our climate being affected by carbon emissions then! Perhaps we should all increase our carbon footprints and try and stave off the ice age?

No, thanks. I could use cooler weather.
If it pisses off the right, I'm all for it.
 
Rara
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:01 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 36):

It's never been an "either - or" question. This hypothetical antagonism is primarily a tool to justify total complacency for people who don't want to change anything %u2013 unfortunately the world around us keeps changing anyway, so we better keep up, or better yet, get ahead!

It IS an either-or question - at least until we can replace both coal and nuclear by renewable energy sources, which is definitely not on the radar for the next ten years. So even if we manage to subtitute all nuclear energy by renewable sources, then all that clean energy could theoretically replace coal and lower our emissions. Instead one form of clean energy is wasted to replace another form of "clean" energy (from a climate point of view). It's hypocritical to pretend otherwise.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:24 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 39):
It IS an either-or question - at least until we can replace both coal and nuclear by renewable energy sources, which is definitely not on the radar for the next ten years.

The volume is obviously a challenge, but this is clearly the way to go.

And no, nuclear energy has never been "clean". It's just a different kind of pollution (plus uncontainable risks).

If we'd continued on the nuclear path, it is very likely that the development of renewable sources would have continued to be retarded as it has been before the recent corrective decision.

Simply counting every kWh as a net win against greenhouse emissions would be highly naive as has been demonstrated already – that has never been how it worked, and only with the nuclear roadblocks out of the way we'll be ready to make faster progress for a number of technical, political and economical reasons.

There have been many wrong decisions in the past, and among the most severe have been the boosting of both nuclear and coal electricity production at the expense of renewables. Rolling back both of these decisions is not a walk in the park, but in both cases it's simply a necessity since neither is sustainable.
 
Rara
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:53 pm

I'm going to address this by paragraph, hope you don't mind.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 40):

The volume is obviously a challenge, but this is clearly the way to go.

It's the way to go because the German public has decided so, with a majority being in favour of it. It's not the only way, other countries may and will decide for taking the nuclear option.

Also, instead of "challenge" you could also say "impossible". We will not replace both nuclear and coal in the near future. Nobody believes this a possibility.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 40):

And no, nuclear energy has never been "clean". It's just a different kind of pollution (plus uncontainable risks).

Yes, nuclear energy is a very risky technology. Fossil fuel is also very risky, as it causes global warming. Having established that, why can we not evaluate the risks against each other? In nuclear energy, a Chernobyl scenario could be described as the worst case. It means thousands dead, hundred thousands ill, a region permanently scarred and astonishing financial damage. It may even bring down a small economy. In global warming, the worst case is hundreds of millions of casualties, the face of the planet changed forever and possibly a very different way of life for humanity. Surely that must be regarded as the greater risk? If you compare best-case scenarios, nuclear energy will have no negative impact and global warming will still be a huge challenge for humanity, even if it isn't by far as disastrous as currently predicted.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 40):

If we'd continued on the nuclear path, it is very likely that the development of renewable sources would have continued to be retarded as it has been before the recent corrective decision.

I find that highly unlikely. In Germany, development of renewable sources is first and foremost an instrument to reduce CO2 emissions. Our targets are ambitious, regardless of where we're going nuclear-wise. Case in point: neither the current governments reversal our of the exit path nor the recent corrections back to the exit path influenced our renewable energy targets.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 40):

Simply counting every kWh as a net win against greenhouse emissions would be highly naive as has been demonstrated already – that has never been how it worked, and only with the nuclear roadblocks out of the way we'll be ready to make faster progress for a number of technical, political and economical reasons.

Every kWh produced carbon-neutral as opposed to 600g CO2/kWh is a net gain for climate protection. Elaborate as to how this is naive?

Quoting Klaus (Reply 40):

There have been many wrong decisions in the past, and among the most severe have been the boosting of both nuclear and coal electricity production at the expense of renewables. Rolling back both of these decisions is not a walk in the park, but in both cases it's simply a necessity since neither is sustainable.

Fully agree - going into nuclear power was a costly mistake, we would be better off if we had invested all that money into renewable energy sources. And yet, the mistakes have been made, and here we are. Yes we need to reverse out of both - but we can't do it at all at once. Clear priorities have been made - against nuclear, against climate protection. My beef is with the fact that nobody in Germany seems willing to admit that.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
san747
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:35 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 38):

I can deal with that. I can get t-shirts elsewhere.

That's all 3rd-world countries are good for, right? Who cares if a bunch of Bangladeshis die, there are other countries where the vast majority of its citizens make less than $1 a week and don't get to eat on a daily basis who can make your T-shirts for you.

Do you listen to yourself sometimes?
Scotty doesn't know...
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 10:02 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 41):
Yes, nuclear energy is a very risky technology.

I think it's going a bit far to say 'very risky'. Risk is associated with any action, but nuclear power is about the best example of risk being reduced to the smallest possible level. Accidents can still regrettably happen, as Japan illustrated, but in somewhere like Germany your greatest risk would be the threat of terrorism I think.

Quoting san747 (Reply 42):
Do you listen to yourself sometimes?

Unfortunately the rest of the world most definitely listens, and many wrongly associate that caliber of comment as being representative of Americans as a whole.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 10:07 pm

I have always been on the fence on this issue, now I'm leaning towards the human-made global warming but my mindset has never changed: why not research cleaner energy? Why not recycle more?

Forget the trees, let's stop buying oil, much of that money going to states supporting terrorism!
Forget about rising temperatures, wasn't there a time when sunscreen wasn't needed?
Think not of the environment, think about our economy without so much oil imports!

To me, I don't see why both sides don't want change. The "left" in us to save the trees, and the "right" of us to save our wallets! This has only turned into a political argument because of politics itself. I don't see how, partisanism aside, anyone could be against newer energy unless they hated the environment and economy!
 
NoUFO
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Thu Jun 16, 2011 11:05 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 43):
I think it's going a bit far to say 'very risky'. Risk is associated with any action, but nuclear power is about the best example of risk being reduced to the smallest possible level.

At first I didn't want to address this and veer off from the original topic too much.
But 'risk' is often defined as the product of probability of a loss - times the monetary value you would lose. In the event of a nuclear meltdown the value of the loss would probably be high or very high, wheras the likelyhood such an accident will occur is very small. As a result, the actual risk would neither be small nor high but probably be somewhere in between.

I think what we need is some sort of an Apollo program for sustainable energy.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 44):
The "left" in us to save the trees,

I'd say it's more than 'just' that. After all it doesn't really matter if you believe in (mostly) man-made global warming. The less fossil fuel we burn, the better we will all be off: It is - in the long run - cheaper, it is more environmentally friendly, we will be more competitive and less dependant.
I support the right to arm bears
 
dxing
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Fri Jun 17, 2011 12:31 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 31):
I suppose the poetic licence of Michael Flanders was aways going to be wasted on those who have not read Winnie the Pooh

Well thanks for the literary ten seconds but as usual, excuses are more your forte.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 32):
Indeed. Just in case you've forgotten what the distinction is

In the case of global warming there is none and as you proved in your response the usual rules of the global warming dogma are in force. The dogma must be defended at all costs to include using the smallest thing, like a misspelling, to try and discredit any dissenting opinions. You'd be much better served by just admitting the obvious.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, a road that goes forever, I'm going to Texas!
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Fri Jun 17, 2011 12:45 am

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 45):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 44):
The "left" in us to save the trees,

I'd say it's more than 'just' that. After all it doesn't really matter if you believe in (mostly) man-made global warming. The less fossil fuel we burn, the better we will all be off: It is - in the long run - cheaper, it is more environmentally friendly, we will be more competitive and less dependant.

I know, I was being simplistic. My point was that no matter what "side" you fall on, a better energy policy makes sense. Most people are somewhere in the middle. Even if man made global warming is a myth, it still makes sense to develop new technology!
 
BMI727
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:51 am

Quoting san747 (Reply 42):
That's all 3rd-world countries are good for, right?

No. Some of them have oil, natural gas, or some other resource.

Quoting san747 (Reply 42):
Who cares if a bunch of Bangladeshis die,

They can't walk to higher ground?
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
Superfly
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Joined: Thu May 11, 2000 8:01 am

RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Fri Jun 17, 2011 3:03 am

Quoting san747 (Reply 42):
Who cares if a bunch of Bangladeshis die, there are other countries where the vast majority of its citizens make less than $1 a week and don't get to eat on a daily basis who can make your T-shirts for you.

The comments by Mr. 727 were of poor taste and the amount of pain & suffering in Bangladesh is sad. However we need to remember that Bangladesh used to belong to India but they insisted in having an independent, sovereign nation on a flood plain.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 43):
Unfortunately the rest of the world most definitely listens, and many wrongly associate that caliber of comment as being representative of Americans as a whole.

The amount the US gives in foreign aid suggest that we are a very generous, caring and compassionate nation.
Bring back the Concorde
 
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n229nw
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RE: Global Warming Over - Mini Ice Age Predicted Now

Fri Jun 17, 2011 4:28 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 41):
Fully agree - going into nuclear power was a costly mistake, we would be better off if we had invested all that money into renewable energy sources. And yet, the mistakes have been made, and here we are. Yes we need to reverse out of both - but we can't do it at all at once. Clear priorities have been made - against nuclear, against climate protection. My beef is with the fact that nobody in Germany seems willing to admit that.

Brilliant post. While I can see both sides of the issue, I really think the mass-movement side of the German anti-nuclear movement is a bit naive and simplistic.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 44):
I have always been on the fence on this issue, now I'm leaning towards the human-made global warming but my mindset has never changed: why not research cleaner energy? Why not recycle more?

Forget the trees, let's stop buying oil, much of that money going to states supporting terrorism!
Forget about rising temperatures, wasn't there a time when sunscreen wasn't needed?
Think not of the environment, think about our economy without so much oil imports!

This is a nice sentiment, which makes a lot of sense as a way to reason with warming "skeptics"...

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 44):

To me, I don't see why both sides don't want change. The "left" in us to save the trees, and the "right" of us to save our wallets! This has only turned into a political argument because of politics itself. I don't see how, partisanism aside, anyone could be against newer energy unless they hated the environment and economy!

But I think you are forgetting that the driving force is $$$$$. The coal and oil industries makes tons of it, and their lobbies are massively powerful. They have done more than anyone else, for example, to manipulate and spin the data to make it look as though there is no scientific consensus on carbon dioxide and warming. And they have a huge influence on both poltiical parties in this country, etc. etc.
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