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Derico
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:06 am

This is how it basically went down in Cannes:







http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5650/03ac.jpg
 
kaitak
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:12 am

Much as expected, the G20 meeting - and particularly Germany and France - have put the case to Greece very clearly: back the referendum or you're out of the euro. And there'll be no more cash until (or unless) the vote is passed.

Of course, it's still by no means a certainty that the referendum will be passed, but it's being made clear to the Greeks that what they're experiencing now is just a drop in the ocean compared to what will happen if the referendum is voted down. I don't know if there is any more money due to be paid before the referendum or how long Greece can hold on with the cash it currently holds, but if it runs out before the 4th December, this will be a very difficult few weeks for Greece; unfortunately, one cannot avoid the conclusion that it has brought it all on itself.

Over the next few weeks, the ECB, France Germany and other Eurozone govenments (except Greece) will presumably be working on contingency plans, to respond to a disorderly default. There are no precedents for this; it's going to be an extremely scary time.
 
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Braybuddy
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:51 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 50):
This is how it basically went down in Cannes:

                    

. . . . although I have to admit, I think Merkel and Sarkosy are unfairly being pictured as the villians of the piece. While they hold all the cards in this high-stakes poker game, they're situation is unenviable.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:27 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 51):
I don't know if there is any more money due to be paid before the referendum or how long Greece can hold on with the cash it currently holds, but if it runs out before the 4th December, this will be a very difficult few weeks for Greece; unfortunately, one cannot avoid the conclusion that it has brought it all on itself.

Thats why the vote will be a month before as I think any further funds which are due in the New Year have been frozen until the vote result which is fair enough. As for bringing on itself Im one of the few that believes in the democratic view of the people. In your own country they have a referendum for everything so what makes it right that the Irish should have the right to vote on their future and the Greeks not ? Its ok til it effects your own country . Lets be fair ! One thing that both the Irish and the Greeks have in common is a wide distrust of their politicians and a history of corruption and lining their own pockets. The Greeks will vote if they vote No and things go badly wrong then yes they get what they vote for but its their decision to make. Its called Democracy.
 
slz396
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:25 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 53):
Thats why the vote will be a month before as I think any further funds which are due in the New Year have been frozen until the vote result which is fair enough

Well, the IMF and the EU have made it clear the funds are only going to be paid out if Greece accepts the EU plan as it is, so basically the question for the referendum should be: "Do you want another 8BN euro in cash from Europe to avoid imediate default and then just stop whining and do exactly as we tell you for the next decade, or do you want to starve to dead as from next week and promise not to ask for any help in future at all?"

Quoting OA260 (Reply 53):
In your own country they have a referendum for everything so what makes it right that the Irish should have the right to vote on their future and the Greeks not?

Excuse me, but it is too late for a referendum now: not only is it a luxury you can't afford any longer, but also is there no alternative in case of rejection of the current plan.
If Greece wanted to have a referendum on the euro, they should have organized it prior to joining the euro, not after 10 years being in it, when it suddenly becomes obvious that there are not only benefits from it (like cheap money for a decade, allowing a small and poor country to organise the Olympic games for instance), but also basic obligations like some sort of fiscal austerity...

Quoting OA260 (Reply 53):
The Greeks will vote: if they vote No and things go badly wrong, then yes they get what they vote for but its their decision to make.

What Greece needs is not a referendum or elections, they need a new government, one that comprises both major parties, so they have a wide democratic basis to implement everything the eurozone and the IMF imposes on them asap. There' really isn't time for political games like referenda or elections anymore; the time's really up, in case you haven't noticed as the date of the referenda had to be moved forward to a point prior them running out of money.

Let's just hope the PM loses the vote of confidence tomorrow and that after that the oposition accepts an offer to form a coalition government of national unity, rather than to call for elections...
It's the only way Greece can avoid defaulting within weeks and being send back to the standards of living of the 1950s.

[Edited 2011-11-03 03:26:33]
 
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par13del
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:30 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 46):
What if many decide to abstain or not show up to vote because they don't want further austerity measures but also want to be in the eurozone and know that these measures are necessary?

Well those persons should look for a leader among themselves and start marching to let their voice be heard. Based on what we have been seeing from Greece, a set of folks have been out demonstrating on a daily basis against the austerity measures, the President has paid heed to their voice and is offering a referendum, what exactly have the silent folks been doing, who exactly responds to silence and who is the majority.

A more simple question, do we believe that the population of a educated developed nation should have a voice in the massive austerity measures and loans that are going to be placed on them for which they will be responsible for the next couple decades? Maybe with globalization they do not have too, perhaps folks in other countries can foot the bill.

Quoting slider (Reply 35):
Not only do they not have the means through organic economic growth to extricate themselves from this (whereas many in EU and US can),

We will see how those who you claim can actually do, the UK has started some, what about the rest?

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 34):
Everyone knows that there is no possible way in hell to make up that shortfall with extra taxes, not even halfway.

See the above quoted post, a lot in the US may have similar thoughts that the US can, so as long as they think like that no real action is required, see the current situation where millions of Democrats think the Tea Party on spending cuts are lunatics and millions of Republicans who see Democrats as lunatics because increase taxes on the rich will solve the problem. In the next election nothing will change, there are enough Americans on both sides of the aisle that no single party will be given carte blanche to implement their economic philosophy, because people actually think what is taking place now can be solved by one set of principles.
 
vc10
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 11:34 am

In this crisis all you hear is what Germany and France want from Greece , but there are more countries in the euro zone than just those two , but they seem to have no opinion or influence
 
slz396
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 12:24 pm

Quoting vc10 (Reply 56):
In this crisis all you hear is what Germany and France want from Greece , but there are more countries in the euro zone than just those two , but they seem to have no opinion or influence

They basically want the same too, you know, the smaller countries even more so than France and Germany.

Meanwhile, the UK is standing by and looking at it all, demonstrating its own total irrelevance and its complete failure to have even the slightest influence on what are undoubtably the most important economic decisions taken in Europe since years, also for the UK, BTW.

Really pathetic to see the British PM almost begging to be informed about what is happening and to see how he was send out of the last eurozone meeting after a brief 25 minutes photo shoot, after which the doors were closed and the all important discussions started off.... with Cameron flying to Australia for some in comparison completely irrelevant Commenwealth meeting in Perth!

If I were a UK citizen, it have a HUGE issue with how my government is unable to have its voice heart in all this!
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 12:52 pm

This is very troublesome for the US since a Greek default will send markets plummeting and possibly bring a second recession (perhaps stronger than the previous one). I can see the GOP using this to their advantage to blame Obama for the default (maybe going as far as saying that we needed to help Europe shore up their debt)...but that's for another thread   

Like many things in society, a Greek exit from the eurozone was a taboo. Now it's nearly all but certain. That is a weak point in the EU: it was meant to keep everyone in, but not anyone from exiting. Considering that these are sovereign nations, the treaty that establishes a EU constitution should be amended to allow members to voluntarily exit certain areas when the need arises, once voted by a referendum and approved by the respective government. Germany and France have given too many opportunities. They know that a "No" vote will send them back into recession. The time has already passed to tell Greece to get their things in order and that in the meantime they were out of the euro.

Quoting par13del (Reply 55):
A more simple question, do we believe that the population of a educated developed nation should have a voice in the massive austerity measures and loans that are going to be placed on them for which they will be responsible for the next couple decades?

They should. The Germans and the French are not the ones who will have to pay more while receiving less pay for services. Beggars can't be choosers, but if the remedy is worse than the disease itself, better to go it alone than be subjected to what two EU nations tell them to do. At least, that's my opinion. If I were a Greek, I'd put my nationality and my future before the EU.
 
baroque
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:27 pm

Quoting Derico (Reply 50):
This is how it basically went down in Cannes:

Brilliant but the lowest of the pics is overkill, just the first two are enough. Hope you don't mind if I copy them for use in presentations about consequences!!

Quoting slz396 (Reply 57):
Really pathetic to see the British PM almost begging to be informed about what is happening and to see how he was send out of the last eurozone meeting after a brief 25 minutes photo shoot, after which the doors were closed and the all important discussions started off.... with Cameron flying to Australia for some in comparison completely irrelevant Commonwealth meeting in Perth!

If I were a UK citizen, it have a HUGE issue with how my government is unable to have its voice heart in all this!

However many decades of bloodymindedness has to have its rewards! But come on Queenie was in Perth, but I don't think we managed to do you all a favour and strand him in Perth with the Quaintarse grounding. Profuse apologies, but we did try.

At least Quokka and I will be "allowed" to post in relation to matters European now that, as predicted, Jules has started to pony up some funds for the IMF in these months of need!!

What a mess. I still think it is all being masterminded by folk selling short.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:54 pm

Quoting slz396 (Reply 54):
Excuse me, but it is too late for a referendum now:

Never too late thats Democracy whether you like it or not.

Quoting slz396 (Reply 54):
(like cheap money for a decade, allowing a small and poor country to organise the Olympic games for instance)

You failed to mention the French and German companies that got huge contracts to build these new projects but thats a minor detail huh ??

Quoting slz396 (Reply 57):
If I were a UK citizen, it have a HUGE issue with how my government is unable to have its voice heart in all this!

I am a UK Citizen and Im very proud that the UK didnt join the Euro ! All the Franco-German comments about the British loving their non European Pound Huh , well the British are looking over the cliffs of Dover and saying ''WE TOLD YOU SO ''... If anything this crisis has saved the UK from ever joining the Euro and for that every British Citizen can be thankful. Dont forget how much the UK tax payers pump into the EU each year. So acusing them of doing nothing is a bit rich but typical of the Brussels Eurocrats.

And for your information David Cameron was told by the French to mind his own business ! Cant have it both ways .  

----

Now back to the topic in hand and leaving the double standards behind.

Things are changing very quickly :

Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou is to meet the country's president, as pressure grows on him to offer his resignation.

Mr Papandreou is now holding an emergency meeting with his cabinet, after a division developed over plans to hold a referendum on the eurozone debt agreement.
Meanwhile, the opposition leader is calling for the formation of a transition government and the immediate ratification by parliament of the new bailout deal.

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16102562
 
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par13del
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:07 pm

Quoting slz396 (Reply 57):
Meanwhile, the UK is standing by and looking at it all, demonstrating its own total irrelevance and its complete failure to have even the slightest influence on what are undoubtably the most important economic decisions taken in Europe since years, also for the UK, BTW.

If one of the primary reasons is the security of the Euro and not the EU, since the UK did not fully sign on to the Euro why exactly would you want to give them a seat at the table, the UK cannot have it's cake and eat it too, either they are in the Euro or they are not.
They are in the EU so they can have a voice there, but as it relates to the security of the Euro, those who have jumped in should be the ones making the decisions, not those who are on the outside.
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:08 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 60):
Quoting slz396 (Reply 54):
(like cheap money for a decade, allowing a small and poor country to organise the Olympic games for instance)

You failed to mention the French and German companies that got huge contracts to build these new projects but thats a minor detail huh ??

Well, if I knowingly don´t have the means to pay a loan back, then I can´t take a loan, no matter how atractive the offer is. In private life taking a loan without intention to pay it back is called loan fraud and punishable by jail. This also applies to department stores, which offer me full financing and payment in installments ("Take nolw, pay later"). If i would take all the "so attractive" loan offers I receive daily in my mail, I would be far above my head in debts.

Jan
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:17 pm

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 62):
Well, if I knowingly don´t have the means to pay a loan back, then I can´t take a loan, no matter how atractive the offer is.

And when you take a loan out you get a credit check to see if you have the means to pay it back so I guess they made their choice to grant the loans based on Greece's ability to pay at the time or are the Banks totally stupid?
 
Derico
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:20 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 59):
Brilliant but the lowest of the pics is overkill, just the first two are enough. Hope you don't mind if I copy them for use in presentations about consequences!!

No I don't care. That last picture while extreme was needed for full conveying of the sentiment. I'm just too lazy to either gif it or add captions (which is begging for). You are welcome to take them.
 
slz396
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:29 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 60):
I am a UK Citizen and Im very proud that the UK didnt join the Euro ! All the Franco-German comments about the British loving their non European Pound Huh , well the British are looking over the cliffs of Dover and saying ''WE TOLD YOU SO ''... If anything this crisis has saved the UK from ever joining the Euro and for that every British Citizen can be thankful. Dont forget how much the UK tax payers pump into the EU each year. So acusing them of doing nothing is a bit rich but typical of the Brussels Eurocrats

I am not accusing anybody of anything, merely stating what I see happening here: Cameron would love to be more involved, but isn't allowed to.

Let's face it, whether the UK is in our out of the euro, it's not like these matters aren't of great importance to the UK: the eurozone is Britain's biggest trading partner and the UK are already up to their neck in the bailout plan for Ireland for instance, so in fact it is very understandable for Cameron to be willing to be more involved in the eurozone meetings and their decisions: he has finally understood that Brussels is where the things are decided that matter to him and his government too and that any bad decision there can ruin any of his plans at home: indeed, when it rains in Brussels, it sure pours in Paris, Berlin AND London, just as we've told you so...  
Love it or not, but the Euro is Britains real currency already, whether you pay with it in the local high street or not.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 60):
Things are changing very quickly

Seems most likely that by tomorrow, the current Greek PM will have been pushed out of office and replaced by somebody in charge of a coalition government of national unity which will implement the austerity measures as forseen in the bailout plan, after which the referendum is off the table and elections are going to be held in Greece somewhere next year and that would definitely be a good thing for Europe.
It seems the ECB has already anticipated on such a scenario as it just announced it has lowered interest rates by1/4th of a percentage in a surprise move. Good to see the ECB finally do something else than just monitor price stability!

[Edited 2011-11-03 07:32:12]
 
PanHAM
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:35 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 60):

You failed to mention the French and German companies that got huge contracts to build these new projects but thats a minor detail huh ??

I fail to see the connection here, it is custom on large infrastructure projects that most of the workers are hired locally and most of the material is bought locally as well. So whatever loan Greece took out to build the infrastructure for the Olympics a lot of the money remained in the country.

Besides that they got value for the money, the French and German companies did not fully pocket the receipts. Greece could have hired Chinese companies as well, but they have a tendency to bring in their own employees. Ask the people in Africa.



Quoting OA260 (Reply 63):
And when you take a loan out you get a credit check to see if you have the means to pay it back

As a company or a private person yes, but not as a state. A EU member state cannot fail, that has been the policy so far and that is why they got cheap loans which before the crisis reflected the rating but not the possibility that the banks might have to write off the loans fully. That is exactly why the banks are highly exposed now and may have to be refinanced.

Greece would have had to pay much higher interest rates if the credit risk was fully incorporated. I guess this will change in the future.
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:40 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 66):
Quoting OA260 (Reply 63):
And when you take a loan out you get a credit check to see if you have the means to pay it back

As a company or a private person yes, but not as a state. A EU member state cannot fail, that has been the policy so far and that is why they got cheap loans which before the crisis reflected the rating but not the possibility that the banks might have to write off the loans fully. That is exactly why the banks are highly exposed now and may have to be refinanced.

Greece would have had to pay much higher interest rates if the credit risk was fully incorporated. I guess this will change in the future.

In any case, legal responsibility to pay back the loan rests with the debtor, not the creditor.

Jan
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:56 pm

Quoting slz396 (Reply 65):
Let's face it, whether the UK is in our out of the euro, it's not like these matters aren't of great importance to the UK: the eurozone is Britain's biggest trading partner and the UK are already up to their neck in the bailout plan for Ireland for instance

People slate Cameron but he is the best PM the UK has had for many years. I didn't like him when he first came into the scene before he was made leader of the Conservative party but he has done lots I admire. He is not anti European and has really tried to make it clear to others that it is in the UK's best interest to see a strong Europe but not enter the Euro and I am dead set against that.

Quoting slz396 (Reply 65):
Seems most likely that by tomorrow, the current Greek PM will have been pushed out of office and replaced by somebody in charge of a coalition government of national unity which will implement the austerity measures as forseen in the bailout plan, after which the referendum is off the table and elections are going to be held in Greece somewhere next year and that would definitely be a good thing for Europe.

Personally I would vote Yes although its not my choice as I gave up my right to vote when I didn't take a Greek Passport or do my military service. My Family all have votes though and I do believe it is their right to decide. Personally though I agree with what you say about it being the better solution in the long term and for Europe.

What annoys me is this constant anti Greek rhetoric in the media and forums which actually turns people off the whole EU / Euro project. I was a fan of the Euro when it was being launched but all this crisis has done is make me weary of the EU and the Euro and disgusted at how some so called ''fellow Europeans'' show their true colours. Not referring to anyone in particular BTW.  
 
PanHAM
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:05 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 68):
What annoys me is this constant anti Greek rhetoric in the media and forums which actually turns people off the whole EU / Euro project. I was a fan of the Euro when it was being launched but all this crisis has done is make me weary of

Well, we would have much more sympathies with Greece if we would not see daily demonstrations , at least weekly "general strikes", would not hear about 8 billion € pension paid to death people over the years, not see the obvious tax evasion by rich Greeks and many more. Germans can shrug that off, but tell a Slovakian or Slovenian who has much less than a Greek has that he has to pay for all that, you get little sympathy out there.

When a country is that high in debt it cannot be that national income is wasted by silly strikes.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:24 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 69):
Well, we would have much more sympathies with Greece if we would not see daily demonstrations , at least weekly "general strikes", would not hear about 8 billion € pension paid to death people over the years, not see the obvious tax evasion by rich Greeks and many more. Germans can shrug that off, but tell a Slovakian or Slovenian who has much less than a Greek has that he has to pay for all that, you get little sympathy out there.

I think you miss the point but to put it simply for you dont believe all the mass media hype you see in Bild and other newspapers. My Family are earning Greek wages and its far from luxury. As for the strikes you would get the same in most EU countries if they were faced with the same. On 30th November millions are threatening to go on strike in the UK over cuts. In France we have seen many strikes, Italy too. Greece is not unique to strikes. Just the focus is on Greece now but you watch out for the next dominos to fall and I will remind you when it happens. As for the Slovak wages we have discussed that in another thread and some of the figures being quoted there didnt add up at all based on people I personally know working in that country. I guess their pay checks cant be wrong. Another member also knew Slovaks who reported things disputing the amounts being posted. Its all very well for people to make generalisations and smart comments about Greece but when you are living there and getting a normal civil servants pay check then you will know what cuts are !

I think people fail to see that the everyday Greeks are not rich and do not get high wages. As stated in another thread I agree that tax evaders should go to jail and some politicians also but the majority of Greeks are low paid. This myth that French and German money is going to rich Greeks who strike all the time for nothing is just that. You do of course know that everyday they strike they dont get paid anything! So these people must be desperate to resort to this anyway.

What I dont agree with is high wage earners like ATC going on strike. They really are taking the piss out of everyone, fellow Greeks included.

-----

Referendum has been scrapped according to live news reports.

[Edited 2011-11-03 08:47:47]
 
PanHAM
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:18 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 70):
think you miss the point but to put it simply for you dont believe all the mass media hype you see in Bild and other newspapers

BILD is exactly what I don't read, my own opinion and life experience and serious media does it. . I am not talking about Germany, but I mentioned the Slovaks and the Slovenians, they work for less than the average Greek and have to pay their share for the safety net.

Regardless, I cannot and will not understand that people, who know that their country is in a mess and who all had their share in getting it there, every single one, show such a reaction. Demonstrating in the streets and general strikes just gets the country deeper into the hole. Not only the country but the people as well, I never in my 44 years I am in business understood why people go on strike. It is simple stupidity, nothing else, there is no gain for anyone in the situation Greece is in.

That's my opinion, you must not like it, but you'll have to accept it without funny assumptions about my reading habits.

So, the referendum has been scrapped, fine, what come snext? When will the public and the politicans get the next surpise? Calling a referendum is beyond any logic in first place, a country is in the emergency room, everybody helps and then the family says, no wait, we want to have a vote if we aqccept the help, may be not.

Sheer madness.

Sorry, I like Greece, the people and we have an excellent small and inexpensive restaurant in town, Aggi and his wife make the best Greek home made food in the area, he pays his taxes and he is still a wealthy man., It works , without fakelaki
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:50 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 71):
That's my opinion, you must not like it, but you'll have to accept it without funny assumptions about my reading habits.

You are of course entitled to whatever opinion you want but looking from the outside is alot different from the inside. I dont claim to know everything about the situation but I have first hand experiences from my own family and their dalily lives and financial issues etc... Whilst my Family are better than alot of Greeks the cuts my Aunt has endured as a state teacher of over 20 years is shocking ! So the pain is first hand and my Family always worked and paid their taxes so they didnt gain anything from the corrupt politicians and bankers. To say most Greeks benefitted is not correct . To say the rich got richer is correct.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 71):
Sorry, I like Greece, the people

Good to hear that because its a great country and a great people despite these issues and they will get through it and probably be better off for it in the future. I always maintained that. Many issues and institutions and departments have been forced to change rapidly and thats a good thing. The way things were done in the past will not be the way of the future and thats also a good thing.
 
scarebus03
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:53 pm

It looks to me that the Greek PM played a bluff to get the opposition and rebel elements of his own party on side and accept the bailout. If that is the case then he played it quite well.

Where I have an issue is where the head of a sovereign state is summoned by two Eurozone leaders and given an ultimatum. There are more member states that should have a say. The carry on of the Franco-Germans although necessary may cause the breakup of the Eurozone due to the rifts developing at the moment. I sincerely hope they are not just seeking to win elections using short term solutions.

The reality is that Greece is lost regardless of what happens and will eventually default, Ireland unfortunately is not far behind them but not exactly an apples to apples comparison. If Italy cannot be contained then it's game over. I would even suggest a preemptive package should already be in place for Italy in an effort to calm the markets for a longer period and allow them some chance to stabilize. If Italy does sink game cover.

Brgds
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:02 pm

Quoting scarebus03 (Reply 73):
It looks to me that the Greek PM played a bluff to get the opposition and rebel elements of his own party on side and accept the bailout. If that is the case then he played it quite well.

I think you read it very well as we have seen in the Greek Parliament tonight.

Quoting scarebus03 (Reply 73):
If Italy does sink game cover.

Indeed and looking at the list of strikes in Italy planned for November its not going to get any better there either.

I have a much more positive view of the Irish situation though. I think Ireland are better placed to ride this storm out.
 
vc10
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:45 pm

Quoting slz396 (Reply 57):
Really pathetic to see the British PM almost begging to be informed about what is happening and to see how he was send out of the last eurozone meeting after a brief 25 minutes photo shoot, after which the doors were closed and the all important discussions started off.... with Cameron flying to Australia for some in comparison completely irrelevant

I think you will find that Cameron wanted to be at the meeting to ensure that suggestions that were meant to help the Euro did not at the same time become EU rules

Quoting slz396 (Reply 65):
he has finally understood that Brussels is where the things are decided that matter to him and his government too and that any bad decision there can ruin any of his plans at home: indeed, when it rains in Brussels, it sure pours in Paris, Berlin AND London, just as we've told you so...

If this crisis has shown anything it is that decisions are made in Paris and Berlin and Brussels has very little to do with it

I feel, but have no evidence, that all these " loans and haircuts " are not being offered for Greece's benifit but to try and stop German and French banks taking too much of a hit should Greece default and and leave the Euro.

I feel very sorry for Greece as the population seems to be Dammed what ever they do but trying to force them to do something that could leave the country struggling for a generation or more is somewhat unfair. However I do understand that the Greek population has to play it's part but there is only so far you can squeeze them and I would have thought the German government would be the first to realize this after Germany's experience in trying to repay the debt imposed on them after WW1, and we all know what that led to.
 
iakobos
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:54 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 72):
So the pain is first hand and my Family always worked and paid their taxes so they didnt gain anything from the corrupt politicians and bankers.

It is the system that is corrupt and has been so for decades. Every "citizen" has a share in the rubble, small or big.
When the part of the economy that escaped the official circuits was at 50%, everybody found a benefit in it and nobody thought the State could catch a pneumonia.

"Steal from the State otherwise the State will steal it from you" and "an arrangement can always be found" are the basic guidelines in the place, and this is valid for everyone, initiators and modest accomplices, even involuntary.


What height would be a hill made of banknotes that escaped the State during the last 35 years, with a black economy anywhere between 50 and 30% ?

Was something done or tried to stop the leaks ? did anyone raise a flag ?

ταπεινοφροσινι....one might think a bit of humility might not be misplaced at this stage, but that is not in the character of the house.

Collective irresponsibility and EU spinelessness have pushed the country in the abyss, if it would not have been for the global financial crisis it could have held another few years.

What devices will allow it to climb back to a decent social level and regain the status of a reasonably functioning State, and how long will it take ?

We already spent a half-generation of 800 Euros young workers, we are now starting with the 500 Euros youth, what's next ?

Democracy à la grecque is not going to save the place...something else is urgently needed.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:10 pm

Quoting iakobos (Reply 76):
It is the system that is corrupt and has been so for decades. Every "citizen" has a share in the rubble, small or big.

So as a resident you include yourself too ??
 
lewis
Posts: 3586
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 1999 5:41 am

RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Thu Nov 03, 2011 11:02 pm

So the referendum is off. The situation keeps changing every single hour, I just hope they can just make a decision and stick to it.

Quoting slz396 (Reply 54):
f Greece wanted to have a referendum on the euro, they should have organized it prior to joining the euro

Greeks were the only country whose majority opposed joining the EEC back in the 80s. Andreas Papandreou (current PM's father) had promised a referendum for joining if he got elected, of course he never kept his promise. The Eurozone was presented as something we had to join no matter what back in the late 90s. And contrary to the news circulating, we did not all gather and put our mathematical minds together to "fiddle with the numbers". GS as well as the governments then did it, the same FMs who you would see going on BBC and CNN and giving their critique of the crisis, pathetic!

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 58):
Beggars can't be choosers

Beggars can't be choosers but beggars get something that they don't have to return, even if it comes with conditions. Greece is getting a haircut and of top of that a loan, which makes the net position, debt-wise, higher than it was before. This loan comes with many strings attached and it is legally binding, it is not a donation.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 71):

Regardless, I cannot and will not understand that people, who know that their country is in a mess and who all had their share in getting it there, every single one, show such a reaction.

Even if you see 200,000 people demonstrating or striking, they are not the majority, far from it. Some may have legitimate demands but most will resist any change. When I still lived in Greece I would see all that from the internet/tv too, because, as usual, I would be at my office working and so would the majority of the workforce.

You also have to understand that the debt burden on a population can cause social unrest, even wars in some cases. I would say that if the average income for the lower/middle class was directly or indirectly cut by 40-50% while cost of living kept getting up, you would see demonstrations and riots in other countries too. And they do happen, they are just not as dramatic as the Greek ones for some reason. Once non-Greeks who watch the demonstrations on the TV screen get that it is not just because of austerity but because of the unjust way that austerity is being focused on specific social groups as well as for the lack of justice and punishment for offenders, then they may be able to empathize, even just a bit, with the average Greek. For example, with the latest taxes that will be applied to incomes earned in previous years, unemployed people who live on their 1-year-long benefits will be asked to pay back-taxes. That doesn't make much sense for obvious reasons.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 77):

  

Quoting iakobos (Reply 76):
When the part of the economy that escaped the official circuits was at 50%

Every report that I have read places it around 20-30%.
 
iakobos
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:52 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 77):
So as a resident you include yourself too ??

No and that is a reason I have been ostracised by pretty well everyone who plays the game, be it the plumber, the lady who sells cigarettes, the doctor who waits with an open hand, the bar owner who sells fake whisky, the lady tax inspector who buried my vat returns, my own accountant who after years can still not believe we have no black box, etc...but you know that.

...the ATC guy who made a blunder sending 100+ people to death and is back in place, the building owner who saved money by bypassing the law with the assistance of officials and was not to be seen when a couple of dozen were crushed under the concrete, the lady tax inspector who got transferred to nowhere in the countryside because she dared to investigate on the huge illegal property of a big businessman, the (EU) foreigner that dared starting a competing business and was properly cleaned, the Albanian who got a passport overnight because he made a chance on an Olympic medal, the Russian, Georgians, and whatever Greekstan that got citizenship with credit facilities and special tax status by comprehensive officials, the parents who get mad because their kid got a 7 (which was worth less than 5) and went to "see" the teacher to reconsider, the list is endless. But you know that.

Have you ever watched a courageous program called Zungla (jungle) ?

Greeks know that even better than I do, but while I as an idiot and honest (it goes hand in hand here) bloke do react, the locals keep it quiet, it is not worth the move of an eyelid.
At best they will tell you that "it happens everywhere".

Where is Justice here ?
if you do not know I'll tell you, there are two possible locations, nowhere or at the side of money.

There are nice people here, in a proportion similar to any other place, no more no less, but the neo-Byzantine system is rotten to the core. No one has admitted it yet !

Young people are definitely more in touch with reality and the outside world, thanks mainly to the internet and the practice of English.
But before they raise into positions of authority another twenty to thirty years will pass. That's what it will take.

There is plenty of potential here, I know it, but the system has to be broken before anything of true value can be brought to light.

A good dictatorship could speed it up by 10 to 15 years, but that would be politically incorrect of course.

Up to you the Hellenes...


Quoting lewis (Reply 78):
Every report that I have read places it around 20-30%.

Perhaps, but my oral information comes from the Ministry of Finance and puts their estimation now at somewhere between 30 and 35%, a significant improvement on the previous decade.
We are anyway speaking in tens of billions per year, multiply it by a number of years and you got a big pile.
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 5:31 am

http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/o...ns/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
The "Greek philospher Groucho Papandreou" walking away from a collapsing building that seems a bit familiar, and saying

"I don't care to belong to a zone that accepts countries like mine as members"

Very sharp our Cathy!

Oh what a shambles.

No idea what our stock market thinks it knows, but it bounced right back today.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:27 am

Quoting iakobos (Reply 79):
No and that is a reason I have been ostracised by pretty well everyone who plays the game, be it the plumber, the lady who sells cigarettes, the doctor who waits with an open hand, the bar owner who sells fake whisky, the lady tax inspector who buried my vat returns, my own accountant who after years can still not believe we have no black box, etc...but you know that.

Ar I see I was wondering where the sour grapes were coming from . Honestly it sounds more like a rant and vendetta to me . You have benefited like you accuse everyone else of doing because you are a resident and if you have had kids through the state schooling system then you HAVE benefited and are exactly the person that you accuse others to be . You cant have it both ways. You are not some Island cut off from society you live in its impossible.

As I have said before Greece has given you a good life otherwise you wouldnt be there !!
 
iakobos
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:47 pm

If I did not start a company, had no kid and a Greek spouse I would not be here.

Believe what you want, there is no vendetta, the country has committed suicide.

I have seen it happening, in slow motion, scene by scene, year by year.
I was hoping some sane brain could alter the course and modify the scenario, that was not to be.

What I feel is a deep sadness, not for me, I have done my time, but for my kid and for a whole generation (probably two) of young (and usually smart) young people who are left with no illusions and nothing to dream of.

Their future, for those who will have the opportunity, will take shape under other skies...but you know that.

What you are seeing fellow earthman is the final bankruptcy of a derelict system where greed, sheer greed was the basis for the minority with influence: politicians, businessmen, high ranking civil servants, clergymen.

Game over.
 
lewis
Posts: 3586
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:37 pm

I agree with the main idea of your last post but...

Quoting iakobos (Reply 79):
No and that is a reason I have been ostracised by pretty well everyone who plays the game,

So everyone as you say is responsible apart from you? Why do you consider yourself the only person to be the exception while at the same time you accuse everyone else in the country of being part of the system. Is it that hard to recognize that there are many more like you around the country? I think you just hang around with the wrong crowd.
 
iakobos
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:03 pm

Beyond the cataclysm where one country finds itself, there is a much bigger concern.

The Euro Zone (with the EU in the rucksack) is on a spring plank, there are three directions it can choose to jump to:

a) bankruptcy - dissolution of the union around a common currency

b) inflation - the ECB starts printing money (like the Fed or the UK)

c) federalism


Make no mistake, while perceived as a crumbling block, the EU could easily, almost overnight, build itself the most powerful financial lever, one that no country could even dream of.
Eg. a tiny 1-1.5 % transfer of VAT to the ECB would give it a 5 trillion Euro (6.8 trillion $) leverage. Think about it.

IMHO, and it has been taking dust, the EU has no future without resorting to the c) option.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 5:55 pm

Quoting lewis (Reply 83):

Honestly I always wondered where these outbursts and bitter posts came from look back at previous threads finally I have an understanding of the reasons . Pinch of salt springs to mind .
 
Derico
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:43 pm

Quoting iakobos (Reply 84):
Beyond the cataclysm

You got that right.

 
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OA260
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:36 pm

Papandreou giving his fight for survival speech now then the confidence votes begin!
 
iakobos
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:40 pm

I am one of probably a few, doxo to Theo, because I have a very different education, one were balancing, analysing and criticizing is welcomed and deemed necessary.
The brainwashing consisted of daily infusions of honesty, sincerity, respect, self discipline, use your brains and behave appropriately, and the occasional kick that helps one learn faster.
I will spare you the equivalence in Greece, you know that.

There are very few Greek people with whom one can openly discuss those (system) matters, and unsurprisingly they belong to the very well (usually foreign) educated class, and it ends with "sooo, ye, that's it, but what can we do ?"
arms dropped.

There is a lot of work ahead.
 
scarebus03
Posts: 232
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RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:48 pm

Is Papandreou the lesser of two evils? as those waiting in the wings could be worse.
 
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OA260
Posts: 26261
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:18 pm

Quoting scarebus03 (Reply 89):
Is Papandreou the lesser of two evils? as those waiting in the wings could be worse.

Personally I like him . He is well educated and has a decent vision and right ideas of what needs to be done. Id like to see him survive tonight and get the deal done then get on with the long road ahead.

Update : Looks like he has survived the vote so good news !

[Edited 2011-11-04 15:55:02]
 
scarebus03
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 3:14 pm

RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 1:22 am

Looks like the dance continues............ however despite winning the vote of confidence his credibility is now seriously undermined. One would think it would be the opposite.

Brgds
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Greece - The Next Step?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 7:54 am

Quoting iakobos (Reply 84):
b) inflation - the ECB starts printing money (like the Fed or the UK)

Well - sadly - Germany (and one might observe Airbus/EADS too) needs a spot of printing to keep the Euro competitive with a deliberately debased USD.

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