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YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2011 2:50 am
by Derico
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...0On%20Business&utm_content=2228416

If true (the first annoucemente was earlier in the year but it was the preliminary and not confirmed, this is the follow-up), it solves overnight the decline of the last 12 years in energy for the Argentine Republic, and turn it into a major oil reserve nation.

This after a huge discovery of gold in San Juan province and unfonfirmed new (smaller) oil finds in Mendoza province.

RE: YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:29 am
by shaq
Argentina is in a rush of luck or what?
Congratulations for them!

RE: YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:46 am
by Derico
It's one billion barrels in an area in Neuquen and southern Mendoza provinces, and only about 10% of the area has been explorated.

Quoting SHAQ (Reply 1):
Argentina is in a rush of luck or what?

I think so, even in things like natural disasters there's been all kinds of them in basically every country in the world, Argentina has been conspicuously spared. That is really lucky.

And the country is now the number one tourist destination in Latin America, bar Mexico. That brings a LOT of money I see it Mendoza, they can't open hotels and all kinds of infraestructure fast enough. Though we also have a booming fine wine industry, there is a new winery opening ever 17 days!!

Mendoza will even start to export planes starting next year!! Humble little units, but 100% local. I am very proud of that.

Shows what private citizens and companies can do when working hard and with positive intentions.


RE: YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:51 am
by Longhornmaniac
Congratulations to Argentina (even though they didn't exactly do anything)!

It is near the top of my list of favorite countries to visit, even though I've only been twice, and seen a very limited amount of it. I suppose that's part of what makes it so awesome...its diversity!

Here's to additional prosperity for the country! Lots of places really, really need it!

Cheers,
Cameron

RE: YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2011 11:25 am
by baroque
Quoting Derico (Reply 2):
It's one billion barrels in an area in Neuquen and southern Mendoza provinces, and only about 10% of the area has been explorated.

You might just find that there are already quite a few (other) holes and producing fields in the Neuquen and nearby basins.

For a general description of the Neuquen
http://cig.museo.unlp.edu.ar/_veiga/SP252_1.pdf

While it has not been exhaustively explored, it is probably a bit better than 10% explored.

RE: YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2011 8:37 am
by flyingturtle
Nearly a billion barrels of oil. That's good for the economy of the country, but that's only 28 days worth of oil, even if it is consumed only by the US and the EU.

So I put a question mark behind it: ?.

RE: YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2011 12:12 pm
by baroque
Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 5):
So I put a question mark behind it:

However, when you put the in situ value of ~100 billion dollars beside it, your other question marks are harder to see.

Those basins are quite odd. A lot of the early exploration was by Phillips and they established a left half, middle right half division. Cold water flowing down from the Andes causes the W side (left half) of the basins to show much lower sub-surface temperatures compared with the R half. This water also increases the risk of alteration of the oils, either by simple water washing or by biodegradation of the paraffinic components.

The Cuyo basin is in some ways more promising than the Neuquen.

The section does contain remarkably rich and thick source rock sections. That cold water does present limitations, it seems. Then again, there are always surprises just when you think you understand an oil province!

RE: YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:00 pm
by Derico
Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 5):
That's good for the economy of the country, but that's only 28 days worth of oil, even if it is consumed only by the US and the EU.

And for example, the Brazilian deep-sea find is said to have between 4 billion and 15 billion barrels, with some wild estimates being at near 50 billion. The question raised there is are some of those resources too deep to be viable at least in the medium term.

The advantage of this find is that it is over land. So even if it is smaller, as we all know based on what happened in the USA recently, oil is much less controversial when it's under a continent. But I would leave such questions to Baroque, the in-house Erudite on the matter.

RE: YPF Announces Confirmation Of Huge Oil Shell

Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:29 pm
by baroque
Quoting Derico (Reply 7):
oil is much less controversial when it's under a continent

Well I would not even call it controversial - have to be an optimist on some things!! - just a heck of a lot cheaper.

There are nearby production facilities to the Neuquen discovery, might need a larger pipeline, but even so, not very deep, reasonable reservoir quality, cost of production should not be north of about USD20, at worst 30.

Brazilian sub-salt. It will be produced, but deep water is difficult, sub-salt is extra difficult, deep under sub-salt more difficult, high pressures, ditto.

You have to be especially careful drilling through the salt to make sure that the casing is both secure and that no leaks occur.

All those factors make for high production costs, slightly offset these days by the ability to sidetrack off the initial hole. So you would have one well, sidetracked below the salt base - I assume. The one thing going for the Brazilians is larger reserves. If the worst came to the worst, the wells at the Neuquen discovery are not going to "do a Roncador".
http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/roncador/
Current status at
http://www.subseaiq.com/data/Project...=348&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

If you were to look at the NPVs, the near 1 billion Argentinian find is probably about the same as a 4 billion find offshore Brazil.