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Gonzalo
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Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:05 am

The latest statements from both sides are "unfriendly" to say the least.
Israel : The military action is closer than a diplomatic action"
Iran : Israel will be destroyed if they make a move

One can expect that, if the fight begins, sooner or later will be more countries involved supporting each "side" of the conflict.

Is all this just the usual exchange of mutual threats or are we really close to a big conflict ?

What do you think guys ?

Rgds.

G.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:40 am

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
Iran : Israel will be destroyed if they make a move

That's on their agenda anyhow, with or without an attack.

Since there are at least 2 countries in between Iran and Israel a conventional war is highly unlikely. More likely is an air attack by the Israel Air Force. Iran will send their puppets in Lebanon and Gaza and Israel will be prepared to deal with them and I am sure that they have learned from the last war they had with Hamaz in Lebanon.

However to avoid all this, China and Russia should jump their shadows and make sure that their client Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. Once they have the nuclear bomb, this nutjob theocracy will use the bomb and that makes them different from all other owners of nuclear weapons, including North Korea.
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 1:55 pm

If Israel goes ahead, it should not expect the US to step in if the battle does not go their way. If Israel is big enough to strike on their own, rejecting US suggestions to wait, then it is big enough to withstand a war on their own and accept a pummeling if it does not go as planned.
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 1:59 pm

Iran... once Ahmadinejad ends his term he will not be able to run again for another term. He will go back to teaching in his University in Tehran. There is no "Putin-Medvedev swap game" in Iran. Once he is done with as President, things might change for the better. The people in Iran might take advantage to ask the Clerics to give up power and their tight hold on the country. Iranians are peaceful people, they would prefer to live like us without religious restrictions.

Israel, the nation with 200+ undeclared nukes are getting ready to strike Iran to stop their supposed nuclear weapons building program.

a reminder:
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Non-Proliferation_Treaty

Israel still refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (even though it has 200+ nukes). They never allowed the IAEA inspectors in their facilities. Iran has signed it and gave the IAEA inspectors access to their facilities. Hence, which is the rogue nation... Israel or Iran?

There will be an attack on Iran. The question is not "if" but "when".
My take is that Israel will send somebody else (the US) to do the job for them.

 Wow!
 
victrola
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 5:08 pm

Short of a full out invasion, which is not going to happen, Iran, if it chooses to do so, will develop nuclear weapons. Israel is unable to launch any kind of attack that could do much more than temporarily disrupt the Iranian weapons program.

Given these realities, the U.S. and Israel will have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 5:43 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 1):
Once they have the nuclear bomb, this nutjob theocracy will use the bomb and that makes them different from all other owners of nuclear weapons, including North Korea.

Not so much a nutjob theocracy. Ahmedinajad, please remember, is not the boss. Khamenei and the Supreme Council are. Mr A is merely the public face of Iran and it's easy for many to dcide he's actually in charge. The SC are extremely conservative and I doubt they will go down a path that will ensure their nation is reduced to rubble.

The best value of a nuclear weapon is not to use it, but have it as a chip in a big poker game.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 3):
They never allowed the IAEA inspectors in their facilities.

Actually, they did. But Israel ran a huge con game on the IAEA and these guys never saw the actual capability of the DImona facility.

Quoting victrola (Reply 4):
Given these realities, the U.S. and Israel will have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran.

Agreed. Same as the USA eventually learned to live with a nuclear USSR and a nuclear China, and, so it might seem, as have Pakistan and India with each other. A nuclear Iran, however, changes the political equation in the area and might spur SA & Turkey into the game.
 
kaitak
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 6:01 pm

Virtually no other country in the ME - not just Israel - wants a nuclear Iran, much less one with a bomb. The real big question is what Iran would do in response to an attack, apart from just retaliate against Israel; if there is a real danger of their attacking vessels in the Gulf, then the powers in the region, including the US and UK, need to protect their interests, making sure they have the means to take out boghammers and any Iranian naval activity in the region, as well as missile bases.

If this is to happen, then it needs to be much more than just an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, it needs to target Iran's government, command and control, IRG, the lot. Israel needs to hit Iran with so much ordnance that when the smoke clears, it won't have the ability or organisation to launch any kind of meaningful response. The attack needs to be MASSIVE in its scope.

Does it have this power? Does it have sufficient firepower, not just aircraft but surface to surface missiles and of course, defensive weaponry (particularly in response to Iran's proxy groups like Hezbollah).
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 9:33 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 3):
Iran... once Ahmadinejad ends his term he will not be able to run again for another term. He will go back to teaching in his University in Tehran. There is no "Putin-Medvedev swap game" in Iran. Once he is done with as President, things might change for the better. The people in Iran might take advantage to ask the Clerics to give up power and their tight hold on the country. Iranians are peaceful people, they would prefer to live like us without religious restrictions.

The more and more I observe Iran, the more I think Ahmadinejad doesn't matter--he is only a puppet for the clerics IMO, the next guy will be just as bad as long as the clerics remain the same. I do thoroughly agree with your last sentence though.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 09, 2011 10:18 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 1):
Once they have the nuclear bomb, this nutjob theocracy will use the bomb and that makes them different from all other owners of nuclear weapons, including North Korea.

That doesn't make sense. You don't attack when you have a so clear disadvantage, it would make more sense for Iran to just launch its army on foot that to send one or two half assed nuclear missiles that probably won't even work.

Each word Ahmadinejad utters is propaganda, I can't understand why some people take it so seriously. Well, I can for some, because it's in their interest to have bad guys to point at, it hides their own failure or agenda.
 
thegreatRDU
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:27 am

Man....we really are Israel's bitch aren't we?   

I mean look what Obama said...
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:29 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 3):
Once he is done with as President, things might change for the better. The people in Iran might take advantage to ask the Clerics to give up power and their tight hold on the country. Iranians are peaceful people, they would prefer to live like us without religious restrictions.

That they are peaceful, there's no doubt. We can't judge a nation because its government does as it wants and does everything to supress , but the fist two sentences are a joke, with all due respect. We know that as long as the clerics hold power, NOTHING will change. Khamenei has even mentioned the possibility of eliminating the president in favor of a prime minister (one that will come out from a rubber stamp parliament and will have barely any powers). And even with all the recent protest where three long time leaders have been deposed and where two more have seen their regimes start crumbling, the clerics will be even more reluctant to give up power, making a protest seem like an act against Islam (like everything else is...)
 
PanHAM
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 6:24 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 8):
Each word Ahmadinejad utters is propaganda, I can't understand why some people take it so seriously. Well, I can for some, because it's in their interest to have bad guys to point at, it hides their own failure or agenda.

They are not rational, that's the world's problem. Seems the world didn't learn anything from 1933 when a similar nutjob gained power in Germany.

No one took him serious and now the same silly arguments are used. Of course is Ahmadinejad a puppet of the clerics who own the theocracy Iran, but that is the only difference between him and Hitler. The goal is to eliminate Israel from the map (it's not shown on their schoolbooks anyhow) and they build the nuclear bomb precisely for that purpose. Don't expect rational thinking, please.
 
baroque
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 6:49 am

Godwin's law has just declared a loser in this discussion. I suppose that is what happens when the real nature of history is suppressed by law.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:02 am

well, baroque, that is your opinion, which of course I respect, but according to wiki this is not necssarily the case

quote wiki
teilweise wird diese Interpretation angewendet, ohne zu überprüfen, ob der Nazi-Vergleich im Kontext legitim sein könnte.[7] Zudem wird oftmals der Autor des Vergleiches zum Verlierer der Diskussion erklärt.[8] Der Text von Godwin’s law sagt jedoch weder aus, dass ein solcher Vergleich bedeute, dass die Diskussion vorbei sei, noch besagt er, dass der Verlierer gefunden sei. Häufig verschiebt sich die Diskussion nach der Erwähnung von Godwin jedoch zu einer Diskussion darüber oder über das Nazi-Thema. Damit verlässt der Thread das ursprüngliche Thema, so dass die sachliche Diskussion nicht mehr fortgeführt wird.
u nquote

The comparison is valid and obvious and the arguments are the same, no one believed what was written in "My Struggle§" until it was carried out. We should not wait until Iran sends nuclear missiles in the direction of Israel. Chinaq and Russia are the ones who can prevent that.
 
baroque
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:15 am

Well all I can say is that my German may well be nearly as bad as your Farsi.  
 
AR385
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:38 am

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 5):
Not so much a nutjob theocracy. Ahmedinajad, please remember, is not the boss. Khamenei and the Supreme Council are. Mr A is merely the public face of Iran and it's easy for many to dcide he's actually in charge. The SC are extremely conservative and I doubt they will go down a path that will ensure their nation is reduced to rubble.

Iran is ruled by the Republican Guard. Even they are now above the "Supreme Council" They rule it like a mob nation.

The problem is that I don´t see how an attack by Israel is possible (which speaks to the schizophrenic mind of Netanyahu)

They would have to overfly nations that are not very well agreed upon such an attack. Jordan, Lebanon, Syria or Turkey.

Would Turkey agree upon Israeli planes flying in its airspace to attack Iran?

The only way I see this can happen is if Israel launches a ballistic nuclear missile attack on Iran´s atomic facilities.

Let´s see how that goes.
 
baroque
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:52 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 15):
The problem is that I don´t see how an attack by Israel is possible (which speaks to the schizophrenic mind of Netanyahu)

I can see lots of ways, not none that would not make Ahmad less unpopular and cause Iran to make a nest of disturbed hornets seem like a preferable option.

I doubt if Israeli has enough nukes to neutralize Iran, or put it another way, it if tries to use enough, those that are downwind are going to get mightily pissed, and might just try and cut them off at their source. Let me have a guess at where Chinese nukes might be targeted. Every one a coconut as they say firing at Israel.
 
AR385
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:58 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 16):
I doubt if Israeli has enough nukes to neutralize Iran

Well, it is said by "experts" that they have between 200 and 225. That would be enough to neutralize a nation like Iran. Your other points are very valid though.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 8:05 am

Why use nukes? How big are these sites Iran has? Miles wide? Be a waste of a nuke to hit a building, plus it would piss even the US off
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 8:40 am

He looks so threatening on that picture! LOL

Ahmadinejad: Civilized Iranians need no bomb

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says the cultured and civilized Iranian nation has no need to make atomic bombs or carry out acts of terror, stressing Iranians will not retreat from their rights %u201Cone iota%u201D.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/209157.html

I like the comments LOL

Jameela-USA
Nov 9, 2011 11:54 AM
The United States of Terror is country that is well-known for its uncivilized and barbaric practices of terrorizing the world's population. As such, Iran might need to employ uncivilized methods to deal with a uncivilized and barbaric people!

Quoting AR385 (Reply 17):
they have between 200 and 225. That would be enough to neutralize a nation like Iran.

Israel never complied with the NNPT while Iran has no ready to use nuclear weapons. Not one.
Who's the rogue country between the two?

 


Israel may launch strike on Iran as soon as next month to prevent development of nuclear weapons.
...
A report by a UN watchdog into Iran’s nuclear ambitions ‘completely discredits’ the Islamic nation’s protestations of innocence, according to Foreign Secretary William Hague.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...lear-bomb-warns-William-Hague.html

Sounds like Saddam's weapons of mass destruction all over again.

Iran has attacked no nation in years. It will be Israel attacking Iran jointly with the US Air Force for some supposed "preventive" cause that fits the neocon agenda - not the other way around. Aerial attacks will have to be followed by ground invasion. Iran is a huge country. Better not start as we don't know how it will end.

Russia and China will have their word to say.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 8:54 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 19):
Ahmadinejad: Civilized Iranians need no bomb

Probably the most truthful thing he's ever said. Unfortunately, I doubt the clerics are going to choose the "civilized" route

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 19):
with the US Air Force

Source?? Even the Republicans are getting tired of war. More and more people are questioning Israel's actions. Prodding a hornet's nest is the last thing our citizens want to do (at least I hope!!!)
 
PanHAM
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 9:07 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 14):
Well all I can say is that my German may well be nearly as bad as your Farsi.

I was too lazy to google the english version but I am sure that you have it....

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 19):
He looks so threatening on that picture! LOL

all dictators are nice guys, they have dozens of pictures with blondi shepherd dogs, cute children, you name it. Now, in this case he's a puppet of the clergy, so "dictator" is really not the right word, but he's the guy for the dirty work so they do not stain their white turbans..
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 9:11 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 20):
Source?? Even the Republicans are getting tired of war. More and more people are questioning Israel's actions.

No source, my own thought... but maybe there is source. I will have to check.

I hope you are right.

I don't see Israel going at it on their own. They will convince the US to do at least a part of the job for them. The US Navy is all over the Straits of Hormuz, there are US bases in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and I must forget or even misplace some.

Remember, Iran is a vast country with very spread out infrastructures. If they attack Iran the "walk" will not be a piece of cake.

Russia will also have their word to say.

[Edited 2011-11-10 01:19:34]
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 9:26 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 22):
I don't see Israel going at it on their own. They will convince the US to do at least a part of the job for them. The US Navy is all over the Straits of Hormuz, there are US bases in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and I must forget or even misplace some.

Well I pretty much agree. I think Israel just going in and expecting the US to follow will lead to bad things (for Israel.) If they slowly convince us, I see the US maybe getting involved in a few years (unfortunately!)

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 22):
Remember, Iran is a vast country with very spread out infrastructures. If they attack Iran the "walk" will not be a piece of cake.

Depends on what they do. A full out occupation would be disastrous. Our missile and airstrike capability can do wonders, however. We don't seem to use it very much for some reason. Probably because airstrikes can only accomplish so much. Ugh I don't even want to think about it.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 22):
Russia will also have their word to say.

I don't see them getting directly involved, but I can see the Iranians toting some new AKs, AA weapons, maybe even some MiGs... you will literally be able to see dollar signs in the Russians eyes!
 
connies4ever
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 10:24 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 15):
The problem is that I don´t see how an attack by Israel is possible (which speaks to the schizophrenic mind of Netanyahu)

Quoting AR385 (Reply 15):
The only way I see this can happen is if Israel launches a ballistic nuclear missile attack on Iran´s atomic facilities.

Don't overlook use of cruise missiles from submarines deployed to the Gulf.

http://www.nti.org/db/submarines/israel/index.html

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/...hin-subs-to-israel-for-117b-01528/

The question might be what is the CEP of the Jericho II vs a nuclear Harpoon/Gabriel ?

Quoting AR385 (Reply 17):
Well, it is said by "experts" that they have between 200 and 225. That would be enough to neutralize a nation like Iran. Your other points are very valid though.

Maybe. Numbers I've read are less than that, and a portion of those warheads are intended for battlefield use, not as city/bunker-busters. OTOH there are those who believe Israel may have up to 400 or so weapons including fusion weapons.

Some background:

http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/israel/nuke.html

http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Israel/Nuclear/
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 10:43 am

Where did I read that the US made a new delivery of bunker busters to Israel? I will have to find the link.. if I can. There is so much information circulating.
In the meanwhile... this is interesting.

Imminent Iran nuclear threat? A timeline of warnings since 1979.

Breathless predictions that the Islamic Republic will soon be at the brink of nuclear capability, or – worse – acquire an actual nuclear bomb, are not new.
For more than quarter of a century Western officials have claimed repeatedly that Iran is close to joining the nuclear club. Such a result is always declared "unacceptable" and a possible reason for military action, with "all options on the table" to prevent upsetting the Mideast strategic balance dominated by the US and Israel.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middl...e-year-timeframe-disproved-2010-11

  
 
BrouAviation
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 10:48 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 3):

Israel still refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (even though it has 200 nukes). They never allowed the IAEA inspectors in their facilities. Iran has signed it and gave the IAEA inspectors access to their facilities. Hence, which is the rogue nation... Israel or Iran?


Not allowing IAEA inspectors in their facilities is not the same as not being open. The fact that you and I know about the 200 nukes proves exactly that. Israel wants us to know they have them and in what quantities, as we all know nuclear weapons are the most effective when your enemies know you have them.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 3):

My take is that Israel will send somebody else (the US) to do the job for them.

Israel has been known for a long time to carry out fast and effective attacks on countries without even getting the US involved, or even against the will of the US. The destruction of the secret Syrian weapon facilities where North Koreans were involved a few years ago is a great example of that.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 19):

Israel never complied with the NNPT while Iran has no ready to use nuclear weapons. Not one.
Who's the rogue country between the two?

Without the nuclear weapons, Israel most likely wouldn't even be a country anymore. Being a rogue country in the eyes of some or having no country at all? I know my choice..
The wordings Ahmedinejad regularly uses to describe the future he sees for Israel should give you enough material to make your choice on who is the real rogue state and real aggressor here, ánd it should give you a clue why Israel needs it's 200 nukes.

I personally hope it will never escalate like some others believe, if that Iranian maddog gets kicked out of his seat on time. Preferably by the Iranian people themselves through democratic elections.
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:11 am

Quoting BrouAviation (Reply 26):
if that Iranian maddog gets kicked out of his seat on time.

I hope you are talking about Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He is the (non-elected) Big Boss. The clerics are ruling Iran. Other than having the people revolging against them I don't see how they will be removed.

Then come the Revolutionary Guards on order of the Ayatollahs.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is just "his master's voice". He has a legitimate title without any real power. He could be removed from one day to the next if he drifts away or no longer fits the scene.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:55 am

If a war breaks out......World oil prices would shoot the roof.....
 
baroque
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 12:59 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 17):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 16):
I doubt if Israeli has enough nukes to neutralize Iran

Well, it is said by "experts" that they have between 200 and 225.

Maybe Connies would indicate how much of Iran would be destroyed by say 150 of whatever Israel has.

They would definitely be severely hurt, but would that stop Iran from taking retaliatory actions. I rather doubt it. And as we agree, all those downwind - which eventually includes the US - would not be best pleased. As they say, what goes around comes around, on the westerlies!

As folk have remarked, once you have to use your nukes, you almost certainly have lost.

And as for oil prices - well Hawk is correct.
 
na
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:00 pm

The difference between Iran and Israel is, Iran, with a holocaust supporter regime at its head, wants to destroy Israel, Israel wants to prevent itself from such happening.
I do not expect Israel to attack, its a major wakeup call. A truly evil terror government like Iran´s should never have nuclear weapons. But in any case, should Iran ever have the bomb and use it, there will be no Iran left over after that.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 2:36 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 29):
Maybe Connies would indicate how much of Iran would be destroyed by say 150 of whatever Israel has.

They would definitely be severely hurt, but would that stop Iran from taking retaliatory actions. I rather doubt it. And as we agree, all those downwind - which eventually includes the US - would not be best pleased. As they say, what goes around comes around, on the westerlies!

It would depend on what Israel targeted - the nuclear infrastructure specifically or the overall industrial capacity of Iran. If nuclear weapons were used, the body count might be enormous, as many nuclear-related facilities are buried inside large cities. This might point to use of the 55 (?) 'bunker-buster' bombs recently received from the USA. For more remote facilities, perhaps nuclear weapons would be used.

I have no doubt that, given unfettered access to Iranian airspace, the IDF could destroy much of Iran's industrial base. If an air attack was the option, Iraq has no capability to defend, really, and most likely Israel can blind Syrian defenses as they did when they attacked the nuclear facility there, so a direct route over Syria/Iraq might be favoured -- maxes the payload that their F-15s/F-16s could carry, and maxes also the fuel the 707 tankers could off-load.

1 -- Israel would have to be prepared to be treated as a pariah state if they used nuclear (probably anywhere). Mind you, having a state or not having one is the overarching issue for many;
2 -- oil prices would skyrocket to, as many have predicted, $175-200 or even higher. Economic ruin in much of the world could ensue (notwithstanding the existing issues);
3 -- Saudi Arabia and the UAE, if not affected by fallout, probably would quietly applaud;
4 -- overall it would not stop Iran IMHO, just set them back a decade or so.

I have maintained for quite a long time that much, but admittedly not all, of this confrontational behaviour would be resolved if Israel stopped it's shameful treatment of the Palestinians, whom they keep more or less as chattels. If there were a legitimate Palestinian state, then I believe a lot of tension would wash away. Yes there will still be problems, and Mr A is one of them, but he won't be there forever, and I do believe that the Supreme Council in Iran know that it is in their best long-term interests to get rid of him.

But I still keep an optimistic outlook on things.  
 
baroque
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 2:52 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 31):
I have no doubt that, given unfettered access to Iranian airspace, the IDF could destroy much of Iran's industrial base.

About what I assumed, but one question is how "free" would Russia allow that access to be?

And one assumes that the Iranians will have organized their defence based on that very assumption. Asymmetric from day one.

On the fallout, if you look at winds down the Persian Gulf, low level fallout would mostly head S before at this time of year turn R a bit to the Indian ocean before heading back to India. I think the higher level stuff would head for Afghanistan - and US troops before toddling on to China, giving China quite a bit of skin in such a conflict.

One does have to wonder about Saudi Arabia and its view of its interests. And they keep saying Ahmad is crazy!!!
 
Flighty
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:21 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):
The real big question is what Iran would do in response to an attack,

Arguably, a nation's rights to self defense are quite broad. Iran would be justified in nearly any response except WMD. But, even that is debatable. Arguably, that is exactly what WMD are for. Deterrence against attacks.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 10, 2011 8:23 pm

Again, why are we assuming nuclear weapons would be used by Israel? I have no idea how big theirs are but don't you think targeting a facility with a nuke is a bit overkill??
 
jacobin777
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Fri Nov 11, 2011 4:09 pm

One reason why Iran wouldn't nuke Isreal (and certainly not Jerusalem):



I'm not so sure on how important it is to Shia Muslims (I think it is) but its important to the vast majority of Muslims (certainly Sunnis) and I dont' think Iran is stupid enough to send nukes there for a variety of reasons.   



Apropos, Baroque, I still need to watch the links you provided me..  
 
connies4ever
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Sat Nov 12, 2011 1:37 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 32):
About what I assumed, but one question is how "free" would Russia allow that access to be?

And one assumes that the Iranians will have organized their defence based on that very assumption. Asymmetric from day one.

Both Russia and China have "dogs in the fight", so to speak, at least strategically. As to how they might (at least Russia, anyway) intervene, that is not clear.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
One reason why Iran wouldn't nuke Isreal (and certainly not Jerusalem):

A very good point that I have overlooked.    The symbolic value of the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa amongst the large world population of Muslims will not be ignored by the Iranian leadership.
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:21 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
One reason why Iran wouldn't nuke Isreal (and certainly not Jerusalem):

Maybe a little off topic, but I've always feared a terrorist attack on the Kaaba, specially during the Hajj Tawaf ritual.
Probably the reaction from the "hardest" Muslim clerics should be an "invitation" for terrorist attacks all over the world.
Let's hope nobody make such thing.

Rgds.

G
 
baroque
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:58 am

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 37):
Gonzalo

   Jacobin's point is very well taken. Mind you there is the dreadful part precedent during the Iraq civil war. Yes, the one that the US does not like to mention. Someone did mention it once to Rumsfeld, but he did not get away with it!   
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:45 pm

Ahmadinejad is nothing but a powerless puppet.

This one is the mean guy. He is also the Big Boss. Whatever he says he will do.

Iran's supreme leader warns West of 'strong slap and iron fist'
Iran's supreme leader has warned Israel and the United States that Tehran would respond with "a strong slap and iron first" if either launched a military strike aimed at crippling the country's nuclear programme.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-of-strong-slap-and-iron-fist.html

I am still wondering why secret services - Mossad, MI5, CIA - did not get rid of him and his close guard. Maybe not kill but at least overthrow. This is quite mysterious. I would be surprised if there was no "insiders" somewhere nearby them.
Israel and the US must really want to attack Iran which in turn might start WWIII.


 Wow!
 
cmb56
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:52 pm

How long do you think it would take world markets to crash if Iran sank 5 or 6 super tankers in the Straits of Hormuz? I don't care what the US Navy says about keeping the Gulf open. A couple of burning tankers and nobody would send their ships in there for months. If any serious shooting started and continued its light out. Why hasn't Iran shaken that sword a bit? Any attack on us and we will close the Persian Gulf, everybody dies. Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons to be very dangerous. Just the ability to reliably hit something 1200 feet long and 300 feet wide.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 5:53 am

When was the last time Iran invaded anybody? The last war they fought was the US backed attempted invasion of Iran by Iraq.

Compare their actions against the international community to Israels. How many people, including their own resident Palestinians, have the Israelis killed since '47 to how many have dies at Iranian hands. How many times has Israel invaded neighboring countries compared to invasions by Iran?

The world has given Israel carte blanche to segregate, starve and kill thousands of people with the excuse of their alleged god given right to Palestine...and they take more and more every day...thumbing their nose at American wishes.

Iran has not been an aggressor in modern history...Israel has. Iran talks about wiping Israel from the earth, but does nothing. Israel is free to attack any country whenever it wishes without pain or penalty.

Israel uses one report to justify action against Iran yet will not allow the same agency to inspect its reactors or nuclear arms.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not crazy about a nuclear Iran but I'm no more crazy about a nuclear Israel...but when it comes time to claim 'victim' look back on their respective track records and body counts.

Who really has proven themselves to be an aggressor?
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:10 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 41):
When was the last time Iran invaded anybody? The last war they fought was the US backed attempted invasion of Iran by Iraq.

After we overthrew their government and put in the Shah!

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 41):
The world has given Israel carte blanche to segregate, starve and kill thousands of people with the excuse of their alleged god given right to Palestine...and they take more and more every day...thumbing their nose at American wishes.

Letting Israel continue on their present course is the greatest threat to Israel, IMO

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 41):
Iran has not been an aggressor in modern history...Israel has. Iran talks about wiping Israel from the earth, but does nothing. Israel is free to attack any country whenever it wishes without pain or penalty.

There is even debate on whether Mr. A said wipe Israel from the map, or if he was talking about their government. BIG difference. Many linguistic experts lean towards the latter, and Iran stated the latter themselves

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 41):
Israel uses one report to justify action against Iran yet will not allow the same agency to inspect its reactors or nuclear arms.

And this brings up another question, would Iran nuke or allow a terrorist organization to nuke Israel? That would be the end of Iran with Israel's superior nuclear arsenal!

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 41):
Don't get me wrong; I'm not crazy about a nuclear Iran but I'm no more crazy about a nuclear Israel...but when it comes time to claim 'victim' look back on their respective track records and body counts.

I would rather them not be nuclear either, but who can blame them? The US (indirectly) has attacked them before, Israel is talking about attacking them now, and another country (Iraq) has already invaded them. What has NATO taught Iran with this Libya situation? Libya gave up their nuclear program and look where they ended up. Iran wanting a nuke should not be shocking!

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 41):
Who really has proven themselves to be an aggressor?

To be fair, Iran sponsors terrorism. A lot of it. But the US is blind if they do not understand the complaints of Iran!

And before anyone jumps on me... I'm VERY pro-Israel and pro-US. I think pissing off Iran, the Middle East, and the world is the worst thing for Israel and the US. And I am very certain that is what the US and Israel are going. Maybe I am wrong, please, if I am, correct me! This issue is very concerning. Replace "Iran" with "Iraq" and "nuke" with "WMDs" and we are in 2002-2003. Let's be careful before we have another Iraq, thousands of dead US soldiers, thousands of dead civilians, and yes, thousands of dead terrorists who wouldn't have been terrorists if it weren't for these dreadful wars.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:19 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 42):
To be fair, Iran sponsors terrorism.

So does Israel. So does Iraq. So does Afghanistan. So does Saudi. So does Pakistan. So does Russia. So does China. So does the USA.

Except for Iran, the west is allied with all of them and sanctions none of them.

A list of countries which don't sponsor terrorism would be shorter.
 
TheCommodore
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:10 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 41):
The world has given Israel carte blanche to segregate, starve and kill thousands of people with the excuse of their alleged god given right to Palestine...and they take more and more every day...thumbing their nose at American wishes.

I agree with you fully, although today I read that Clinton phoned Bibi requesting that he release more than $100 million in funds owed to the PA right away, so the carte blanche perviously, may be no more, or at least the "credit" may be reined in somewhat, lets hope anyway, although I wouldn't hold your breath !

The Obama admin has tried to alter the path that the current Israeli Government is on, but has faced some massive opposition from various fronts, I wont mention them all here, for the sake of boring everyone to death, but they are the regular mob of pro Israeli brigade  

Have included the article for you the read over.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition...zen-palestinian-tax-funds-1.397165

What do you think guys ?

See JoeCanuck post 41.

[Edited 2011-11-22 23:12:14]
 
Powerslide
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 4:14 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 41):
Who really has proven themselves to be an aggressor?

When the Arabs decided to attack Isreal in '48. After their humiliating defeat, and later on in the coming wars, they left Palestinians as pawns. Generations later Israel has advanced into the 21st century while Palestinians still suffer. You have to be delusional to say it's Israel's fault the Palestinians are where they are today. BTW, there is already a Palestine - it's called Jordan.
 
TheCommodore
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 4:55 am

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 45):
Generations later Israel has advanced into the 21st century while Palestinians still suffer.

If the Palestinians had had as much help and support as the Israelis have over the years, then things would be VERY different indeed

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 45):
You have to be delusional to say it's Israel's fault the Palestinians are where they are today.

Then I'd say there must be a lot of delusional people out there in the big wide world then.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 45):
BTW, there is already a Palestine - it's called Jordan.

If its called Jordan, then it is Jordan, NOT Palestine !

Nice try .
 
Powerslide
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 5:10 am

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 46):
If the Palestinians had had as much help and support as the Israelis have over the years, then things would be VERY different indeed

You are right on this one. If the Arabs really cared about the Palestinians they wouldn't live in squalor in Gaza. It's not like Arabs are sitting on an oil gold mine....oh wait. The rest of the Arab world isn't exactly poor. They don't care, they want the Palestinians to suffer so they can use them as a pawn. No Palestinian problem, no reason to hate Israel. No purpose for the Arab world except to deliver oil.

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 46):
If its called Jordan, then it is Jordan, NOT Palestine

Closest to a "Palestine" there will ever be.
 
Powerslide
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 5:12 am

Something related. Kids, time to buy stock in oil because it's about to skyrocket.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/aircra...mericans-leave-country-immediately

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/Naval_Update_11-23-11_800.jpg
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Israel - Iran War Possible?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 7:31 am

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 45):

Since you seem to be seriously lacking in your study of history, I'm not very inclined to take your definition of delusional very seriously either.

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