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Aloha717200
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Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 2:21 pm

Well, here we are, 3 days to go until the election. Since a good number of us in non-av are politically inclined, let's hear what you think will happen on election night. There's a good tool to use, http://www.270towin.com/, to help you calculate the electoral vote count.

Firstly...the states considered "in play" tend to vary depending on who you ask...so I'm going to use both the states the Republicans think are in play, and the ones the Democrats consider in play.

Here we go:

Colorado - I predict a narrow Romney victory. Romney is ahead in the early voting, Colorado is traditionally a red state, and unless there's a massive turnout on election day that skews blue, I think this one will be an upset for Romney. Obama has lead in Colorado nearly the entire year, but I see it moving Romney's way by election day.

Nevada - Obama win. The minority vote will push Obama over the top. Additionally, Obama leads in early voting, and turnout is expected to be huge.

New Mexico - I don't consider this a "swing" state anymoe. Obama victory by a healthy margin.

Arizona - Democrats must've been kidding when they thought they could put this in play. Maybe the minority vote will be enough to turn this state purple in the future...but for now, solid Romney victory.

Missouri - If Obama couldn't win it in '08, he sure isn't winning it this time. Solid Romney.

Iowa - Narrrow Romney victory. I believe that the Des Moines Register endorsement, while in and of itself insigifnicant, shows signs of things to come. This state may have been safe for the democrats earlier in the year, but I don't think anytyhing's safe there now, and believe Romney will just edge it out.

Minnesota - I don't believe this state is likely to go red this year. A couple of polls have shown it close, but I see this one as safe for Obama.

Wisconsin - Narrow Obama win. While the momentum is with Romney, and Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin...we're 3 days out and only one poll in the entire election cycle has shown Romney ahead...and that was from Rasmussen, who has been shown to tilt Republican on quite a few occasions. It'll be close, but Obama will eek out a win here.

Michigan - Obama win. There have been a few close polls, but Romney has not lead in a single one all year.

Indiana - '08 was a fluke. This is a red state and will remain so in 2012.

Pennsylvania - Narrow Obama win. I predict that on Election Night we'll have a few people biting their nails, but this state is probably going blue. The only exception might be if there is problems at the polls due to confusion over voter ID laws.

Florida - Narrow Romney win. Florida is one of those states that, in close elections, likes to vote for the Republican. I believe it will do so this year.

North Carolina - Romney win. This one slipped away from Obama for good after the 1st debate.

New Hampshire - This one is a tough call. NH tends to buck trends and play the maverick in close elections. It really could go either way. But I'm going to call it a narrow Obama victory.

Virginia - Narrow Romney win. Virginia's voting history, coupled with the closeness of this election, probably favors Romney at this point. But like New Hampshire, it could go either way.

Ohio - The mother of all swing states this year. Likely to decide the election. Romney is narrowing Obama's lead here as of late, and just about every conservative and democratic outlet and interest in the nation is converging here to try and push the state their direction. However...despite Obama's disastrous 1st debate performance, despite every other bump in Romney's numbers that affected every other swing state, Obama has stubbornly held onto a 2% advantage in the state, give or take, for quite a while now. Considering the bulk of polls, from all ranks of polling firms, it appears that Obama's lead is the real deal here. However, I also expect a bit of chaos at the polls in this state...with everyone converging on it, I expect problems with organizations like True The Vote attempting to intervene, I expect some voting machines to not function correctly, and I expect problems with provisional ballots and poll worker confusion over voter ID laws after the court decisions earlier this year. I believe that we won't truly know who won Ohio until very late on election night, and may not know until November 27th, in a worst case scenario.

I believe, however, that if everything goes smoothly at the polls, we're looking at a very, very narrow Obama victory. If that comes to pass, Obama will win a second term.

So here's my election night electoral map:

http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/6185/2012map.png
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfFf

Predicting Obama winning 275 electoral votes to Romney's 263.


Make your own map and share it with us here. How do you see election night playing out?

[Edited 2012-11-03 07:45:39]
 
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mbmbos
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 2:33 pm

I'm playing this one conservatively, sticking primarily with the Nate Silver model but adding Florida because very recent polls show movement in Obama's direction and I suspect the early voting game has been won for the Dems there.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfFV
"If I don't manage to fly, someone else will. The spirit wants only for there to be flying. As for who happens to do it, in that he has only a passing interest."
- R.M. Rilke
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 2:39 pm

Eh, may be off a state or two (especially Colorado) but that doesn't matter, I think it all comes down to OH:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfGm

Not sure how to link the picture but it is the same as yours (OP) minus Iowa. I don't see how some random endorsement from some random newspaper is gonna do anything. Who bases their vote on a newspaper? I don't really buy the whole "it shows signs of change" line either.

I do think there will be a larger GOP turnout than anticipated but I'm not sure if it'll switch OH over
 
mdsh00
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:12 pm

This map is the best one yet. You can play with it for hours:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...tics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

My take:
Obama will take CO, OH, WI, NV, MN

Romney will get FL, NC

The only one I'm not sure about is VA.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:21 pm

Quoting mdsh00 (Reply 3):
This map is the best one yet. You can play with it for hours:

I would lol if there was a tie and Romney got President and Obama got the Vice President spot... THAT would make things interesting
 
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mbmbos
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:21 pm

Quoting mdsh00 (Reply 3):
This map is the best one yet. You can play with it for hours:

Very interesting map. Thanks for sharing it.
"If I don't manage to fly, someone else will. The spirit wants only for there to be flying. As for who happens to do it, in that he has only a passing interest."
- R.M. Rilke
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:44 pm

It will be interesting to see if we wind up with another 2000 debacle in which the electoral and popular votes disagree.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Jetsgo
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 4:04 pm

Quoting Aloha717200 (Thread starter):
Nevada - Obama win. The minority vote will push Obama over the top. Additionally, Obama leads in early voting, and turnout is expected to be huge.

While you're probably right, as a Nevada resident I'd like to throw my    out there. Not only do the Romney signs and stickers FAR outnumber the ones from Obama, it seems like EVERYWHERE you go the small talk is about how sick we all are of Obama and how Romney is getting our vote this year. Furthermore, most people I know that voted for Obama in 08 are not doing so again this year.
Marine Corps Aviation, The Last To Let You Down!
 
TLG
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 4:24 pm

Quoting Jetsgo (Reply 7):
While you're probably right, as a Nevada resident I'd like to throw my    out there. Not only do the Romney signs and stickers FAR outnumber the ones from Obama, it seems like EVERYWHERE you go the small talk is about how sick we all are of Obama and how Romney is getting our vote this year. Furthermore, most people I know that voted for Obama in 08 are not doing so again this year.

If the OP's map, with this modification, actually happened, it would create the theoritically possible tie. That would be interesting!

-TLG
 
flyguy89
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 6:58 pm

I think we can all agree this has been a very interesting race so it will be intriguing to see the results on election day. Below are my thoughts on the swing states:

Ohio: Undoubtedly the most contested swing state, but I'm going to call this one for Romney for a couple of reasons: Actually being from Ohio, I can say for certain that Republicans/Romney have the enthusiasm behind them, I actually went to the Romney rally in West Chester last night and turn-out was MASSIVE, people queued for hours in the cold to get in and according to West Chester police and the Secret Service, attendance was estimated between 30,000-40,000 people, some where estimating even larger, but it was absolutely packed and everyone there was excited and ready to vote. Ohio is also a traditionally conservative state, the governors are almost always Republican, the legislature and town councils are majority Republican, most of it's Congressional representatives are Republican. In summation, I think the increased Republican enthusiasm wins Ohio for Romney.

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia: I think all three will go to Romney. Virginia in particular due to heightened Republican enthusiasm and large turn-out of military/navy voters.

Colorado: I think it'll be a close but solid Romney win, Colorado is a traditionally red state.

Nevada: Obama wins Nevada. The casino unions are heavily organized there and extremely effective at bussing people to the polls to buoy Democrat turn-out.

Wisconsin: This is a tough one, I could see either candidate winning, but I think it's important to note that as of late Wisconsin has trended Republican/conservative with Scott Walker and the Republican majority legislature surviving tough recall efforts.

Pennsylvania: I could see either Romney or Obama winning narrowly. For almost 25 years the state has trended Democrat, but strong Republican enthusiasm and heightened turn-out in the coal areas of Pennsylvania could very well end in a narrow Romney victory.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 7:54 pm

 
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Aloha717200
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:06 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 4):
I would lol if there was a tie and Romney got President and Obama got the Vice President spot... THAT would make things interesting

As interesting as that would be, that would be unconstitutional. In the event of a 269-269 tie, what happens is that the vote goes to the Senate and House. The newly elected House picks the president, and the newly elected Senate picks the Vice President.

So in a GOP-controlled house, as we will surely have after the election, Mitt Romney would easily be chosen for President. In the Senate, where democrats hold a majority, Joe Biden would be elected Vice President.

So we'd end up with a Romney-Biden white house!

And indeed, the possibility of a tie this year is very real. If Obama wins NH, but loses NV, that would be one way to get a tie. Another would be to win Virginia and Colorado, and lose NH and NV. I find that scenario far less likely, however.

[Edited 2012-11-03 14:09:52]
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:08 pm

Quoting Aloha717200 (Reply 11):
So in a GOP-controlled house, as we will surely have after the election, Mitt Romney would easily be chosen for President. In the Senate, where democrats hold a majority, Joe Biden would be elected Vice President.

Do they get to select whoever as VP or does it have to be one of the 269 electoral votes winner?
 
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Aloha717200
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:13 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 12):
Do they get to select whoever as VP or does it have to be one of the 269 electoral votes winner?

It has to be one of the top two vote getters in the electoral college. So, only Biden and Paul Ryan would likely be in the mix...I can't see any other VP candidate surpassing them.

[Edited 2012-11-03 14:14:03]
 
CplKlinger
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:23 pm

As much as people want to say that Indiana in '08 was a fluke, you have to realize the areas that pushed it in that direction will undoubtedly do the same this time. The lake side counties with their ties to being an almost Chicago extension, Marion County (home to IND) with a large African American population and the major college counties (Monroe, Vigo, Tippecanoe, Madison) make up HUGE amount of the states population. I'm in Indianapolis often and the Obama stickers/signs are EVERYWHERE. But here in Franklin, Romney seems to be the favorite. And the change is hugely noticeable, even over the course of about 10 miles. Heck, according to the map of results from 2008 Marion and Monroe Counties (home to IU) were islands of blue surrounded by red. I think Indiana has an actual chance of going for Obama this year, even if the rest of the state (save the Mourdock-Donnelly race) goes Republican.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:32 pm

Quoting Aloha717200 (Reply 11):
So in a GOP-controlled house, as we will surely have after the election, Mitt Romney would easily be chosen for President. In the Senate, where democrats hold a majority, Joe Biden would be elected Vice President.

Not necessarily. In the House, each state's delegation only receives one vote. It isn't one vote per Congressman. Senators do get one vote each, though.

That said, I've not calculated how many votes would go Democrat or Republican counting one vote per state in the new Congress.
International Homo of Mystery
 
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Aloha717200
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:32 pm

Quoting CplKlinger (Reply 14):
I think Indiana has an actual chance of going for Obama this year, even if the rest of the state (save the Mourdock-Donnelly race) goes Republican.

That sort of ties in with what some others in this thread were saying...the perception on the ground can often be very different from what the poll numbers suggest. I mean, I live in Idaho. Romney will likely win Idaho with 60% or more of the vote. Yet I have only seen a single Romney sign in my town. And I know more Obama supporters than Romney supporters. I might be in a blue, or perhaps purple, part of the state. But the state as a whole will still go Romney.

Likewise for Indiana or Ohio or Nevada. I think it largely depends on what part of the state you live in as to whether you feel Obama or Romney has momentum on the ground. Or maybe it comes down to the neighborhood you live in, as well. But I surely can't see Indiana going blue this year. I'd be willing to down an entire bottle of lemon juice if it does.

[Edited 2012-11-03 14:33:45]
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:39 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 15):
That said, I've not calculated how many votes would go Democrat or Republican counting one vote per state in the new Congress.

I've heard many times that Romney would win. Pretty sure that's consensus and not bias
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 10:01 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 17):
I've heard many times that Romney would win.

You would have to have an accurate poll of the new House to be sure, but regardless, the point of my post was to clarify that a simple House majority by party wouldn't make it a shoe-in for their candidate.
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 10:53 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 18):
You would have to have an accurate poll of the new House to be sure, but regardless, the point of my post was to clarify that a simple House majority by party wouldn't make it a shoe-in for their candidate.

I think the projected total is well in favor for the Republicans. Guess it doesn't matter because the odds of a tie are very slim. Romney would have to win certain unlikely states and lose ones he has in the bag, or something to that effect.
 
Longhornmaniac
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RE: Final 3 Days - Your Swing State Predictions

Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:01 pm

Here's what I think it will look like:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgmg

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Cameron
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