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max999
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Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:35 pm

It's clear after DOMA is struck down, there's going to be two sets of Americas. For the same-sex couples in states with marriage equality who get full federal benefits and those who live in states that don't recognize it. Even with the best attempts by the Obama administration to apply all federal benefits equally, there will be some that will require an act of Congress. Considering the House is still controlled by those who are anti-equality, anything that smacks of benefits for same-sex couples will not pass.

I'm predicting that many LGBT Americans will vote with their feet and move to places where their relationships are recognized. This will not happen immediately, but as smart gay Americans realize what they're losing out, they're going to migrate to states that will provide them the full benefits they are entitled to. States with progressive policies will gain their human capital and tax dollars. While states with discriminatory policies will see a brain drain of those people.

[Edited 2013-06-27 08:37:39]
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DocLightning
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:40 pm

Quoting max999 (Thread starter):
'm predicting that many LGBT Americans will vote with their feet and move to places where their relationships are recognized. This will not happen immediately, but as smart gay Americans realize what they're losing out, they're going to migrate to states that will provide them the full benefits they are entitled to. States with progressive policies will gain their human capital and tax dollars. While states with discriminatory policies will see a brain drain of those people.

Not only that, but the average LGBT citizen right now has more education and more money than the average.

The problem is that the most vehemently anti-gay are also the most anti-education in general. Education is a threat to ignorance, of course. So they will not see this as a loss.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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UA772IAD
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:49 pm

Quoting max999 (Thread starter):
'm predicting that many LGBT Americans will vote with their feet and move to places where their relationships are recognized. This will not happen immediately, but as smart gay Americans realize what they're losing out, they're going to migrate to states that will provide them the full benefits they are entitled to. States with progressive policies will gain their human capital and tax dollars. While states with discriminatory policies will see a brain drain of those people.

I think you might be right states that have become more moderate: states like North Carolina, purple states which may not "come round" immediately. That being said, I don't think you'll find too many LGBTs entrenched in the deep red right now anyways.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 1):
Not only that, but the average LGBT citizen right now has more education and more money than the average.

And they are spending their money and making their living in places that provide greater opportunity to do so: California, Washington, the Northeast...
 
travelin man
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:04 pm

I was thinking about this as well. I was especially struck by the dichotomy of the news yesterday: People in states like California and New York celebrating, while in Texas they were trying to stop an abortion restriction bill.

At what point does the "social conservative" agenda start driving away people that can (and do) contribute financially and mentally to the state's well-being?

Texas (for instance) is doing well now, but I see a future in which LGBT (and even just moderates -- gay and straight) decide to vote with their feet and get out of dodge.

The good news is that younger people basically across the board are far more accepting of same sex marriage, so it's probably just a short term situation (short term meaning 10-20 years).
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:11 pm

Are LGBT citizens numerous enough and on average smarter to a degree that would produce a noticeable brain drain? I think the real brain drain is the homophobic attitude in general. But if, IDK, 3% of a state's population that is gay AND decides to move out and 60% are smarter than average and 40% aren't, you can see how that really isn't too dramatic of a shift. I just made those numbers up, but I doubt you'd have 20% of a population moving out that averages in the 95th percentile of earners and learners...
 
mt99
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:29 pm

Quoting travelin man (Reply 3):
while in Texas they were trying to stop an abortion restriction bill.

While they just executed its 500th convict

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/natio...akdown-texas-500-executions/66633/

Crazy huh?
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luckyone
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:10 pm

Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 2):
That being said, I don't think you'll find too many LGBTs entrenched in the deep red right now anyways.

Outwardly no. But you have a great deal of people who are keeping their preference to themselves. The reddest states also have some of the highest gay (and straight) porn subscriptions in the country. Incidentally, so do Nigeria and Pakistan...You have a lot of people who now might just view a job offer in Minneapolis or Boston as preferable to Dallas or Charlotte.
 
bhill
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:54 pm

Yep, those extra tax deductions can be worth some $$$
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:42 pm

I don't think there will be a brain drain, at least, not noticeable until a couple of generations pass. Remember that just like there may be LGBT professionals going to more progressive states, there will be equally anti-LGBT professionals preferring the restrictions imposed by red states.

However, I think that if purple states do legalize same sex marriage, we might see them turning a bit more blue than purple, especially if it contains a large city. They can't turn anymore red unless their LGBT population declines.

Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania come to mind.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
UA772IAD
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:45 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 8):
They can't turn anymore red unless their LGBT population declines.

Or if the districts are gerrymandered and re-drawn to suit the red's interests  
Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 8):
there will be equally anti-LGBT professionals preferring the restrictions imposed by red states.

I don't know... if you're a VP for a Fortune 500 in New York, I don't see you packing up and moving your family in hopes of finding a job in Mississippi because John in accounting's partner now has access to 401K benefits. And if you do, I say, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Remember, some of the biggest names in the business world... companies like American Express, Goldman Sachs and Disney all went on the record to praise the SCOTUS' ruling....
 
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Boeing717200
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:37 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 1):

The notion that this will cause some sort of brain drain shows how isolated in thought one can become when everyone around them thinks or acts the same way thereby creating the false perception of superior thought. The reality is the propensity to be an idiot transcends any category of people.

By the way, the income and education level is higher as a percentage not because gays/lesbians are more intelligent, it's because a larger percentage of them are male.

[Edited 2013-06-27 17:40:46]
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
luckyone
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:48 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 10):

By the way, the income and education level is higher as a percentage not because gays/lesbians are more intelligent, it's because a larger percentage of them are male.

And childless, though that is changing a little. The IRS has nothing on kids.

[Edited 2013-06-27 17:49:20]
 
photopilot
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:56 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 10):
The notion that this will cause some sort of brain drain shows how isolated in thought one can become when everyone around them thinks or acts the same way thereby creating the false perception of superior thought. The reality is the propensity to be an idiot transcends any category of people.

  

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 10):
By the way, the income and education level is higher as a percentage not because gays/lesbians are more intelligent, it's because a larger percentage of them are male.

It might also be as simple as a very large percentage of gay couples are dual income and childless. Even straight couples with no children will generally be financially ahead of couples with child rearing costs/daycare/etc. Attributing it solely to sexual choice only is so simplistic it's mind-numbing and self-serving.
 
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Boeing717200
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:59 am

Quoting luckyone (Reply 11):

Got that right. The guys next door are both engineers. No kids, more play money than anyone we know.
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
Ken777
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:38 am

There is little doubt in my mind that red (neck) states like Texas will still pull in companies - and their gay employees.

There is also no doubt in my mind that head hunters will develop a database of the most desirable/innovative gays stuck in Redneck Land. We won't see a huge brain drain from Texas or Oklahoma, but the opportunities in equality states will look very good for a lot of very bright people. It'll be just a bit of here and there - maybe it will be cumulative and some CEOs will talk to some red (neck) politicians.

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 10):
By the way, the income and education level is higher as a percentage not because gays/lesbians are more intelligent, it's because a larger percentage of them are male.

Actually, of our friends who have goat kids the girl has a PhD in an area of science and is a Uni Prof while the two guys are just getting by - one with a BA and one without.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 3:30 am

Let's be perfectly clear. Within five years, there will be national gay marriage as Section 2 of DOMA gets shot down or another state's gay marriage ban makes it to SCOTUS with proper standing. The suits are being filed as we speak, I'm sure.

End of the brain drain.
-Doc Lightning-

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ltbewr
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 4:02 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 14):
There is also no doubt in my mind that head hunters will develop a database of the most desirable/innovative gays stuck in Redneck Land. We won't see a huge brain drain from Texas or Oklahoma, but the opportunities in equality states will look very good for a lot of very bright people. It'll be just a bit of here and there - maybe it will be cumulative and some CEOs will talk to some red (neck) politicians.

Many lager companies already recognize same-gender and non-married traditional couples for benefits already. There is no doubt that many of those companies based or operating in anti-gay marriage states will put pressure on governments to back off being so anti-gay to be able to attract and keep the best no matter their personal life as to a same-gender marriage.
 
NorthstarBoy
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:41 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Let's be perfectly clear. Within five years, there will be national gay marriage as Section 2 of DOMA gets shot down or another state's gay marriage ban makes it to SCOTUS with proper standing. The suits are being filed as we speak, I'm sure.

End of the brain drain.

If you have a governor/attorney general willing to actually stand up and back the will of the voters in that state, then it becomes a 10th amendment issue. With the Prop 8 ruling, SCOTUS indicated that they're not willing to foist same sex marriage on states that dont want it. Afterall, they could easily have used the Prop 8 ruling to invaldidate every state ban on same sex marriage, yet, they didnt. As far as I can see, 38 states have said they dont want same sex unions. I dont think that the Supreme Court is going to force those states to accept something they have indicated they dont want.

Quoting travelin man (Reply 3):
The good news is that younger people basically across the board are far more accepting of same sex marriage, so it's probably just a short term situation (short term meaning 10-20 years).

Younger people tune into shows like Modern Family, which never would have seen the light of day when i was a kid 30 years ago, or if it did, there would have been such a national uproar, outcry, sense of outrage, that the network would have been forced to pull it or risk losing all their advertisers, and which depict two men living together and raising a child as being perfectly normal and acceptable and they say "why shouldnt these two nice people be able to get married? Who cares what their gender is as long as they love each other and want to make the commitment," This is exactly the kind of reaction the LGBT activists want and they hope that i10 or 20 years down the road it translates into a national change in opinion about what the definition of marriage should be.

Personally, I'm all for two people wanting to spend the rest of their lives together. If they want to make that kind of commitment more power to them and i wont stand in their way, just dont call it marriage. Marriage carries a specific connotation, as it has since the dawn of man.
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DocLightning
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:45 am

Quoting NorthstarBoy (Reply 17):
With the Prop 8 ruling, SCOTUS indicated that they're not willing to foist same sex marriage on states that dont want it. Afterall, they could easily have used the Prop 8 ruling to invaldidate every state ban on same sex marriage, yet, they didnt.

They copped out. The next one is going to come from a state that has an Attorney General who will take the case to SCOTUS and then they will have to rule, rather than throw it out on standing.

They copped out, but had they legalized it nationally, do you think Rick Perry would go along with it? No, he'd raise holy hell and might have to be removed from his office in cuffs.

There will be a few years while it is demonstrated that the sky does not fall and then the issue will be revisited.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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luckyone
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:46 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
They copped out, but had they legalized it nationally, do you think Rick Perry would go along with it? No, he'd raise holy hell and might have to be removed from his office in cuffs.

Rick Perry is just like any politician. If he's a smart one, he's just putting on a show for the extreme constituency, but knows full well there are bigger fish to fry. That's my hope as well for that goon from Kansas who threatened to introduce a Marriage Amendment.

Quoting NorthstarBoy (Reply 17):
I dont think that the Supreme Court is going to force those states to accept something they have indicated they dont want.

Dozens of states also had segregation laws, because they wanted them. Those went down. And I'm sorry, I can't quite get past this idea that something can't be deemed Unconstitutional just because "states want it."
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 2:35 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Let's be perfectly clear. Within five years, there will be national gay marriage

Way too soon. There needs to be a few more election cycles in there to bring more same-sex marriage advocates out in front of the issue in the states where it's still a contentious issue. As they did with civil rights issues concerning race, the Supreme Ct. is going to want to see how their current ruling has fared. The court is under no obligation to take on any case, they take them on as they feel the issues are of merit out of the 7,000 or so brought before them each year.
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Ken777
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Fri Jun 28, 2013 4:10 pm

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 16):
There is no doubt that many of those companies based or operating in anti-gay marriage states will put pressure on governments to back off being so anti-gay

I agree, and when you have a company like Apple with a gay CEO that pressure can be intense. At the same time those politicians were elected by red neck bigots and they probably scare the politicians more than the large employers.

Quoting NorthstarBoy (Reply 17):
Personally, I'm all for two people wanting to spend the rest of their lives together.

I'll agree with that also. No one told me who I could marry. She's a foreigner. With vitiligo all over (except for a few small patches of pigment) she is going to be the whitest person you'll ever meet, but is the most colorblind person I know when it comes to interacting with other people. She is also far smarter than I am, which makes me at times wonder why she has put up with me for 4 years.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
had they legalized it nationally, do you think Rick Perry would go along with it?

Perry may well pull a George Wallace where Old George stood at the front doors of the University to "block" black kids from entering. He had his few minutes defying the law and the before the camera and then got out of the way, making sure he didn't get arrested on a federal charge. Don't know if Perry is as anti-gay as Wallace was a bigot, but in terms of political exposure Perry will suck it for all it's worth. (Pun intended)
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:38 am

Quoting NorthstarBoy (Reply 17):
As far as I can see, 38 states have said they dont want same sex unions. I dont think that the Supreme Court is going to force those states to accept something they have indicated they dont want.

When has civil rights been a majority rule thing? As pointed out before, slavery and segregation were once popular measures but its popularity should have no bearing.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:38 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 21):
Don't know if Perry is as anti-gay as Wallace was a bigot,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxzONeK1OwQ

And it wouldn't surprise me if some other Southern governors didn't go down without a fight.

What I wonder is: what if a governor absolutely refused to comply with any court order? I can see that happening with some of the wing-nuts. "God is more powerful than the Court!" How would that be handled?
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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11Bravo
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RE: Post Doma - The Upcoming Lgbt Brain Drain

Sat Jun 29, 2013 11:40 pm

Quoting NorthstarBoy (Reply 17):
As far as I can see, 38 states have said they dont want same sex unions. I dont think that the Supreme Court is going to force those states to accept something they have indicated they dont want.

Eventually, that is exactly what will happen just as it did for school segregation, inter-racial marriage, and other examples of blatent discrimination.
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