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planemaker
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Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:55 pm

From IEEE Spectrum...

Quote:
“We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven within three years,” [Musk] said. Mr Musk would not reveal further details of Tesla’s autonomy project, but said it was “internal development” rather than technology being supplied by another company. “It’s not speculation,” he said.

I have read that the technology that Musk is developing is relatively inexpensive compared to Google's so it could migrate down the vehicle food chain quite quickly to cheaper models.

While many on this site are in denial about accelerating robotics and UAS technology, one only has to check the news to realize that by 2020 it will be a "no brainer" issue for the next generation.
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srbmod
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:55 pm

Considering the track record of his various companies, I'd take this to the bank. Some states are already ahead of the game in regards to the licensing and operation of autonomous vehicles because of Google and that will help companies like Tesla when it comes time to test their technology.

I think that within the next 15-20 years, autonomous buses and taxis will be commonplace in many major cities (although I have a feeling that the unions representing drivers for such companies will lobby to require a driver behind the wheel at all times).
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:10 pm

Quoting planemaker (Thread starter):
many on this site are in denial about accelerating robotics and UAS technology, one only has to check the news to realize that by 2020 it will be a "no brainer" issue for the next generation.

I predict that autonomous vehicles will penetrate the market in three ways:
1) Through specially allocated lanes that allow only access to autonomous vehicles, much like carpool lanes today.
2) Through autonomous vehicle cab services, like the one that Google seems to be eyeing with Uber.
3) Eventually (although this will probably get the most public pushback), long-range trucks will be autonomous, which will be bad news for truck drivers.

I, for one, can't wait. It will mean a drastic reduction in traffic jams. A line of autonomous vehicles could even pass through another line at an intersection without having to stop or use traffic lights. I could get in my car at home and read a book while my car drives me to work. Long road trips could be spent browsing my iPad or reading a book, rather than tediously keeping my car on the road and avoiding other cars. And many people may find that they no longer need to own cars because they can just summon an automated car at will. You don't need to pick up your 13yo at school and drive her to her piano lesson; the car can do that. And that annoying lady in the Toyota Sienna in the left lane at 45MPH on the interstate? We can bid her a fond farewell, too.

As for safety, there will be some deaths and injuries attributable to software faults. But these will be so much smaller than the number of deaths and injuries attributable to "wetware" faults.
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Kiwirob
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:14 pm

The latest W222 S Class Mercedes is capable of driving autonomously but of course it's illegal so it's not completely connected and dumbed down to Steering Assist.
 
zanl188
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:32 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 2):

Another reason for parents to not talk to their 13 y/o...  

Speaking of teenagers... this tech will add a whole new dimension to car dates. 75MPH Club is born!
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flymia
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:43 pm

Logically when the technology is fluid enough and good enough it makes sense. I personally hate the idea. Would it be great for that early morning drive to work? Yes. But I actually enjoy driving. It's a little bit of a challenge. It certainly makes your brain work. Or at least it should if you are driving properly.
People are just getting lazier and lazier. Which in turn makes them dumber IMO.

As for kids being picked up themselves in a car, or taken to school I don't see that happening. No matter what IMO the car needs to have an overide. What if someone is trying to carjack you. What if you need to race to a hospital, what if there is a flood coming your way. The car is just going to sit there and wait for the red light? Here comes the man with the gun, move car? "Sorry the light is still red car may not move yet" etc.. So I still see a requirement for a driver in any car.

Trucks moving down the highway at high speeds full of cargo with no drivers? Talk about an easy easy target for robbery.

[Edited 2013-09-20 14:47:11]
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Aesma
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Fri Sep 20, 2013 11:47 pm

I like driving and don't like any automation except ABS, however for long trips or traffic jams, it would be sweet. When your brain is already having difficulty staying concentrated on the driving. It's time for a book, a.net surfing, conversation (or more) with a passenger, or a nap.

I wonder what that will mean for toll roads though, if I can afford a bit of a slower drive (that will actually cost less in energy) then I might as well take the free roads and even enjoy some scenery !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
cmf
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 12:28 am

Quoting flymia (Reply 5):
Trucks moving down the highway at high speeds full of cargo with no drivers? Talk about an easy easy target for robbery.

You got everything wrong. Mush easier to stop a truck relaying on a driver.
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ltbewr
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 12:43 am

I don't see in the idea of cars that don't require a driver at attention to operate them. We have seen with modern aircraft with 90% or more of the flight operated in automated modes and with growing concern that aircraft are becoming too automated, taking away from flying skills.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 1:08 am

Quoting flymia (Reply 5):
What if someone is trying to carjack you.

Why would you carjack a car that is going to drive you straight to a police station as soon as the carjacking is reported?

Quoting flymia (Reply 5):
No matter what IMO the car needs to have an overide.

Agreed. And that override needs to be a simple STOP.

Quoting flymia (Reply 5):
What if you need to race to a hospital, what if there is a flood coming your way.

How many people die because of inability to outrun a flood in their car? How many people die because of driver error? You have your answer right there.

And racing to the hospital is a good way to get to the hospital... in the back of the ambulance that had to wrest your broken body out of the twisted wreckage of the car that you crashed while speeding in an emotionally escalated state.
-Doc Lightning-

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cptkrell
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:04 am

Maybe I'm just an old-timer, but I see this technology coming up resting in the same coffin as the car you park in your garage and fly to work in the morning, then fold up the wings at the company's parking lot. Idea been around for how much more than a half-century?

Same with boat/cars. A good boat makes a shitty car and vice versa.

A good computer makes a shitty driver and vice versa. Ain't gonna happen.com. My thoughts....jack
all best; jack
 
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Aesma
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:56 am

As if the average driver was a good one !

As for the car/plane analogy, that's not really comparable, what makes a good plane is just so different from what makes a good car that putting the two together is very difficult. Although with advances it is becoming a reality. A small aviation engine with enough power and that runs on mogas (Rotax 912), carbon composite everywhere, and voilà :

http://hfr-rehost.net/http://eftm.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Terrafugia-Transition.jpeg

A good computer nowadays is small, frugal and powerful, so putting one in a car is trivial. Cars already use many things that are akin to a computer, for example the accelerator pedal is drive by wire, then a computer manages the engine. If your have an automatic transmission what you do on the pedal is actually command (or is it ask nicely ?) the computer of the transmission, which will then command the computer of the engine, etc.

Looking for a picture of the Terrafugia Transition I found out that they're now working on a ELECTRIC 4 seats flying car, with, wait for it, a computer able to fly it, avoid collisions etc., and rotors for vertical take-off. Maybe Tesla will buy them ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
cptkrell
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 1:31 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 11):
As for the car/plane analogy, that's not really comparable, what makes a good plane is just so different from what makes a good car that putting the two together is very difficult. Although with advances it is becoming a reality. A small aviation engine with enough power and that runs on mogas (Rotax 912), carbon composite everywhere, and voilà :

I'll concede; you have valid points. However, even if somewhat off-thread, I have seen this movie quite a few times before but it never ends well (car/planes, car/boats).

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 2):

I predict that autonomous vehicles will penetrate the market in three ways:
1) Through specially allocated lanes that allow only access to autonomous vehicles, much like carpool lanes today.
2) Through autonomous vehicle cab services, like the one that Google seems to be eyeing with Uber.
3) Eventually (although this will probably get the most public pushback), long-range trucks will be autonomous, which will be bad news for truck drivers.

If (and it's a big "if", even with light-speed technology advances) autonomous vehicles ever make it to any significant degree of feasibility, you are probably right, Doc, with your points 1,2,3. kind regards....jack
all best; jack
 
planemaker
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:09 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 11):
A small aviation engine with enough power and that runs on mogas (Rotax 912), carbon composite everywhere, and voilà :

A slightly different take but definitely more fun for the driving enthusiast...PAL-V  
Quoting Aesma (Reply 11):
A good computer nowadays is small, frugal and powerful, so putting one in a car is trivial.

And inexpensive. In fact, multiple "computers" are being put in cars now.

Quoting cptkrell (Reply 12):
If (and it's a big "if", even with light-speed technology advances) autonomous vehicles ever make it to any significant degree of feasibility, you are probably right, Doc, with your points 1,2,3.

No big "if"... not only are all the auto manufacturers are working on it, but it is an active European funded R&D initiative because of the many benefits.
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cmf
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:30 pm

Unfortunately this is almost certainly happening. It is a big step up from what we have today but it is still just band aid on a poor transportation system we only maintain because there is so much infrastructure already in place.
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planemaker
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:40 pm

Quoting cmf (Reply 14):
Unfortunately

Unfortunate? Why?
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cmf
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:33 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 15):
Unfortunate? Why?

Because, as I said, it is band aid on the current system. A system that is very expensive to build and maintain, consume a lot of land, create a lot of safety concerns, and vehicles bind up a lot of capital with very low usage.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
solarflyer22
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:38 am

Well I saw a Tesla in a showroom today and let me just say, as with the iPod, I think I just saw a glimpse into the future. Its just totally different from everything else. Its designed like a computer. There is large LCD touchscreen replacing the entire console and its converted MPG is listed at 88MPG to 95MPG. Its just a matter now of reducing price and increasing range.
 
cptkrell
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:54 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 13):

No big "if"... not only are all the auto manufacturers are working on it, but it is an active European funded R&D initiative because of the many benefits.

I still maintain that it IS a very big "if", irrespective of all the auto manufacturers working on it as well as Euro R&Ds.

I believe that the foreseable future will succombe to individuals wanting to have the option of starting, stopping and taking a quick non-planned excursion into the local WalMart, deli, or remembering to drop off a greeting card at the last minute to grandma's house without pre-programming. Won't happen in my lifetme, which is the same statement I made to a planning committee at FoMoCo almost 5 decades ago (of course, at 70 yrs old my lifetime isn't as long as most of yours).

Even "if" the technology happens with the vehicles (not to mention the "if" with the infrastructure necessary), people will still be people. Pushing a button to get from point 'A' to points "B', 'C', 'D' , etc on everchanging groundscape variables is quite complex especially when added to the everchanging variables of the human mind when deciding split-minute to change courses.

Don't get me wrong...as I stated in my Rep.12, DocLightning's points 1,2,3, may eventually come to pass, however IMHO the future of private ground transportation won't be realized with autonomous vehicles. kind regards...jack
all best; jack
 
ltbewr
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 4:04 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 17):
Well I saw a Tesla in a showroom today and let me just say, as with the iPod, I think I just saw a glimpse into the future. Its just totally different from everything else. Its designed like a computer. There is large LCD touchscreen replacing the entire console and its converted MPG is listed at 88MPG to 95MPG. Its just a matter now of reducing price and increasing range.

I have seen Tesla's in a showroom at a local mall and several times on the streets. They do have a sexy beauty like a fine Italian car, like a Maserati Quartraporte and probably among the most attractive cars out there. Indeed the interior is like a show car of the future, but here, now. They will have to come up with a 2 door coupe, maybe even a smaller version and a multi-use, small SUV/van for families to keep the brand living.
 
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 4:45 am

Quoting cmf (Reply 14):
Unfortunately this is almost certainly happening. It is a big step up from what we have today but it is still just band aid on a poor transportation system we only maintain because there is so much infrastructure already in place.

I'm a huge fan of multimodal transportation infrastructure with maximum integration. France and Japan are two shining examples. But even there, roads are necessary. You can't just have every single house served by rail. Roads are a basic component of civilization.

Autonomous driving is going to change the car dramatically in the next three or four decades in ways we haven't even thought of yet.
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planemaker
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:31 am

Quoting cmf (Reply 16):
Because, as I said, it is band aid on the current system. A system that is very expensive to build and maintain, consume a lot of land, create a lot of safety concerns, and vehicles bind up a lot of capital with very low usage.

These developments actually start mitigating all the issues you list.

Quoting cptkrell (Reply 18):
Even "if" the technology happens with the vehicles (not to mention the "if" with the infrastructure necessary), people will still be people. Pushing a button to get from point 'A' to points "B', 'C', 'D' , etc on everchanging groundscape variables is quite complex especially when added to the everchanging variables of the human mind when deciding split-minute to change courses.

There is no infrastructure necessary... it is essentially all "on board." And there won't be any button pushing (unless you want to touch the screen)... it will be voice activated.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 19):
They will have to come up with a 2 door coupe, maybe even a smaller version and a multi-use, small SUV/van for families to keep the brand living.

Tesla already has an SUV prototype and is taking orders... the Model X with neat falcon doors in the rear.

And in a couple of years Tesla is bringing out a model to compete with the 3-Series Bimmer.
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MD11Engineer
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 10:11 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 17):
There is large LCD touchscreen replacing the entire console and its converted MPG is listed at 88MPG to 95MPG

a touch screen on a car is about the most stupid thing I have ever seen (my mother´s former car, a Prius, had one as well). Unlike conventional buttons and switches, where one can adjust them without having to look at them, a touch screen takes one´s full attention, especially if one has to click through different menues.
My mother once bumped into another car while she was trying to switch off an annoying aircon fan, which was blowing air into her face.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 21):
There is no infrastructure necessary... it is essentially all "on board." And there won't be any button pushing (unless you want to touch the screen)... it will be voice activated.

Even worse, any conversation inside the car will be interpreted by the computer as a command.

One use I can see for automated cars is individual transport for the blind or visually impaired peope, who today are depending on public transport and it´s restrictions. My blind friend is closely watching this development, especially after she had some very negative experiences with the German rial company this year (among others, they made too many staff cuts, and discovered this summer that they didn´t have enough "Fahrdienstleiter", railway equivalents of air traffic controllers, and had to close routes because of this).

Quoting cmf (Reply 14):
Unfortunately this is almost certainly happening. It is a big step up from what we have today but it is still just band aid on a poor transportation system we only maintain because there is so much infrastructure already in place.

Not everybody likes the cozy feeeling of being in a crowd, like on public transport. And your idea sounds quite a bit like the ideas of some more radical environmentalists, who suggested to centralize the world´s population in some synthetic megacities and leave the countryside to become a wilderness without humans.

Jan
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cmf
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 11:13 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 20):
roads are necessary.

Yes, but they do not need to look like the roads we use today.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 21):
These developments actually start mitigating all the issues you list.

It does help some of them, why I call it band aid. The biggest improvements it does is increase capacity on our roads and increase safety in many ways.

But roads will still be just as expensive to build and maintain. It does not free up land for other uses. You still have the stop and go because driving and everything else happens on the same level (mostly.) The list goes on.

There is only one reason to continue using the current system and unfortunately it is a very big reason, we have so much of it already.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 22):
Not everybody likes the cozy feeeling of being in a crowd

How do you figure you be more in a crowd just because your car is driving on an elevated track instead of on the ground?

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 22):
And your idea sounds quite a bit like the ideas of some more radical environmentalists, who suggested to centralize the world´s population in some synthetic megacities and leave the countryside to become a wilderness without humans.

I want roads to look differently and you come up with this???
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
comorin
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 11:37 am

Planemaker, I will have to toss my hat in with the skeptics, except for highway cruise. If you can lead me to the AI (Automotive) research on this topic I will be grateful. The IEEE link is quite brief. I'm no expert, just have an EE background with some formal understanding of machine learning and AI planning.

Unlike a plane or a boat, a car is always milliseconds away from becoming a burning wreck. There are also interference and oscillation issues when you have a coupled system of autonomous cars. The Game aspects of interacting with sets of all autonomous vs a mix of manual is also a complex issue. I am sure many brighter than me have thought of these issues, but I just don't see the paradigm leap in AI/CS that would allow us to realize an unattended autonomous vehicle on a rock-hard surface in the next few decades.

On the other hand, AI and sensing technologies can indeed make a huge difference in safer driving.

I think man-machine systems work best when machines can augment human capabilities by reducing workload (decision making, situational awareness and repetitive tedious tasks.)

I'll read up a bit more to get a handle, guidance welcome.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 2:05 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 20):
I'm a huge fan of multimodal transportation infrastructure with maximum integration. France and Japan are two shining examples. But even there, roads are necessary. You can't just have every single house served by rail. Roads are a basic component of civilization.

Where I live you can subscribe to a service allowing you to pick up an electric car parked in the street, and go to work or the railway station with it, then park it there. The car is a Renault Twizy. In Paris there is a similar system with bigger electric cars, intended to do your groceries etc.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
planemaker
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:40 pm

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 22):
Even worse, any conversation inside the car will be interpreted by the computer as a command.

Ford already has over 10,000 voice commands for its SYNC system. Won't be an issue at all.

Quoting cmf (Reply 23):
But roads will still be just as expensive to build and maintain.

There won't be an need to build additional roads... and maintenance costs will drop.

Quoting cmf (Reply 23):
It does not free up land for other uses.

While it indeed seems like roads take up a lot of land, in fact, they take up a fraction of habitable/arable land.

Quoting cmf (Reply 23):
You still have the stop and go because driving and everything else happens on the same level (mostly.)

It is greatly reduced. In any case, we are still imagining road transport with basically the same form factor when it could be quite radically different in 25 years.

Quoting cmf (Reply 23):
The list goes on.

I don't see it.

Quoting cmf (Reply 23):
There is only one reason to continue using the current system and unfortunately it is a very big reason, we have so much of it already.

As the Doc said, we still have to move around.

Quoting cmf (Reply 23):
I want roads to look differently and you come up with this???

How do you wish the roads to look like.

Quoting comorin (Reply 24):
I'll read up a bit more to get a handle, guidance welcome.

Certainly, I'll rustle up some links.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 25):
Where I live you can subscribe to a service allowing you to pick up an electric car parked in the street, and go to work or the railway station with it, then park it there. The car is a Renault Twizy. In Paris there is a similar system with bigger electric cars, intended to do your groceries etc.

Car share programs are also available in some American cities. In fact, car sharing in some ways has gone "main stream" with AVIS/Budget buying one car sharing company for $500-million and Hertz having set up the Hertz 24/7 car sharing service.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Sun Sep 22, 2013 10:15 pm

Quoting cmf (Reply 23):
Yes, but they do not need to look like the roads we use today.

No they do not. For example, freeways might not need overpasses and complex interchanges with driverless cars. And with more car sharing, fewer parking lots would be necessary. But all houses will still need to be on a street.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 25):
Where I live you can subscribe to a service allowing you to pick up an electric car parked in the street, and go to work or the railway station with it, then park it there. The car is a Renault Twizy. In Paris there is a similar system with bigger electric cars, intended to do your groceries etc.

The trouble with these is that these system works if there is a repository of cars within an easy walking distance from where you are and where you need to go. With an automated car system, you can have fewer, larger repositories so that the car comes to the customer, takes the customer where they want to go, and leaves them there. There is no dealing with going and getting the car and returning it.

Quoting cmf (Reply 23):
You still have the stop and go because driving and everything else happens on the same level (mostly.) The list goes on.

That's just it, though. Automated cars can operate completely differently from cars driven by humans. For example, it may not be necessary to stop at intersections because two lines of automated cars can flawlessly intercalate right through each-other without a single collision. The speed of each vehicle is adjusted as it approaches the intersection so that it has a clear path through the intersection at the exact moment that it needs it. Check out this simulation:
http://www.tested.com/science/weird/...k-like-with-autonomous-cars-video/

Similarly, without reliance on the painfully slow human nervous systems, cars can drive almost bumper-to-bumper at freeway speeds and still have enough time to react to a problem. It could more than triple the capacity of the current freeways. The result is that smaller roadways with less infrastructure will be necessary to sustain the same population's transportation needs.

The implications of automated cars are truly civilization-altering, almost as much as the invention of the car itself.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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cmf
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:32 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 26):
There won't be an need to build additional roads... and maintenance costs will drop.

We are nowhere close to the point where we can stop building roads. I have not seen anything indicating maintenance costs dropping. From where do you have that.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 26):
While it indeed seems like roads take up a lot of land, in fact, they take up a fraction of habitable/arable land.

It is very much where it takes up land. Try adding another lane in most cities where you have high congestion.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 26):
It is greatly reduced.

Why I called it band aid. All it does is let us use an inefficient system a bit longer instead of starting the switch now.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 26):
we still have to move around.

Why on earth would we create a new transportation system that doesn't allow us move around? The idea is to make it more efficient. Not to prevent movement. Relly, from where do you get ideas like this? Do you represent road construction companies?

Quoting planemaker (Reply 26):
How do you wish the roads to look like.

Elevated tracks is what I think holds most promise. Think the Heathrow pod cars but scaled up.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 27):
And with more car sharing, fewer parking lots would be necessary. But all houses will still need to be on a street.

Agree.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 27):
That's just it, though. Automated cars can operate completely differently from cars driven by humans.

They certainly will make things better than now but they do not solve all problems. For example, you still have the need for pedestrians to cross roads. That said, I expect automated cars the way Elon and google are talking about will have more impact by stopping all the highly interruptive lane changes drivers do today.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 27):
The implications of automated cars are truly civilization-altering, almost as much as the invention of the car itself.

It is. Would just like to take it one step further.
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DocLightning
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Mon Sep 23, 2013 4:49 am

Quoting cmf (Reply 28):
They certainly will make things better than now but they do not solve all problems. For example, you still have the need for pedestrians to cross roads.

So? There are several existing solutions to that problem. Some of them involve stopping traffic, some don't. The fact that it isn't a solution to all problems doesn't mean that it won't solve a great many of them. Light bulbs and sliced bread aren't the solution to all problems, either, but they've both been quite popular.

Quoting cmf (Reply 28):
It is. Would just like to take it one step further.

Into what?
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Mir
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:42 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 22):
a touch screen on a car is about the most stupid thing I have ever seen (my mother´s former car, a Prius, had one as well). Unlike conventional buttons and switches, where one can adjust them without having to look at them, a touch screen takes one´s full attention, especially if one has to click through different menues.

   I've taken more than a few cars that I'd otherwise find very desirable off my wish list because of woeful user interfaces, and they all seem to center around the use of touchscreens (and touchpanels, which are even more idiotic). Buttons and knobs do just fine.

-Mir

[Edited 2013-09-22 22:46:06]
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B777LRF
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:58 am

May I please join the choir singing 'thanks, but no thanks'?

I like driving, no let me correct that, I LOVE driving. It may be that someday the equivalent of a Toyota Pious or something similarly boring will be fitted with auto-drive, and for the average driver of a Pious or similar that is probably a good thing. Same if you're unfortunate enough to live in a place with long commutes, incessant traffic jams and drivers more interested in having their breakfast or doing their make-up (yes, US, I'm looking at you).

But I happen to drive a Porsche, and live in a country where the B roads are just meant for being torn up and the unrestricted German Autobahns are just around the corner. The joy of poling the thing around is exactly why I bought it, and I'm not about to surrender that joy to a collection of silicone chips!

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 19):
Quartraporte

Or, indeed, a Quattroporte  
Signature. You just read one.
 
cmf
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Mon Sep 23, 2013 8:23 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 29):
So? There are several existing solutions to that problem. Some of them involve stopping traffic, some don't. The fact that it isn't a solution to all problems doesn't mean that it won't solve a great many of them. Light bulbs and sliced bread aren't the solution to all problems, either, but they've both been quite popular.

Don't understand why it is so important to defend the current system against something better?

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 29):
Into what?

How many times do I need to write it? Let's try again with different words. Separate car traffic from everything else to remove stops, increase safety, enable higher speeds. Provide roads that take less space while carrying more traffic, cost less to build and maintain, and require less energy for cars to drive on.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:20 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 27):
The trouble with these is that these system works if there is a repository of cars within an easy walking distance from where you are and where you need to go. With an automated car system, you can have fewer, larger repositories so that the car comes to the customer, takes the customer where they want to go, and leaves them there. There is no dealing with going and getting the car and returning it.

Sure, it's a stop gap and will work much better with autonomous cars (indeed at the moment there are employees to retrieve the cars !).

I also know people who car share, literally, two couples of neighbors that bought a car for all of them. In the Netherlands where many people use bicycles more than cars.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
BMI727
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:56 pm

Quoting cmf (Reply 32):
Don't understand why it is so important to defend the current system against something better?

Because the current system is great. The last thing I want to do is travel stuffed between an obese mom yelling on her cell phone, some ill behaved kids, and some smelly hipsters.

But autonomous cars are fine as long as I can still drive when I want to. Driving's great, but sometimes it's a chore.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
cmf
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:23 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 34):
The last thing I want to do is travel stuffed between an obese mom yelling on her cell phone, some ill behaved kids, and some smelly hipsters.

Unless it's your wife and kids I fail to see how that will happen just because your car drives on a different type of road.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
planemaker
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RE: Elon Musk: 90% Of Tesla Miles Will Be Autonomous

Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:22 am

An update on the road to the "internet of Things"...

Intel Inside: Intel's New Chip Aims to Turn Everything Into a Computer

Quote:
"When I look out to 10 or 20 years from now, we are going to have meaningful amounts of computing at close to zero power or almost zero physical size," he said. "It lets you think about turning everything and anything into a computer -- tables, chairs, clothes and even our bodies could become computers."
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein

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