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solarflyer22
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Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:27 am

So I believe that a US and or Israeli strike on Iran's facilities is likely and that negotiated settlements will fail. With that in mind, here's what I think is likely, and please opine.

There is one urgent, reason for a strike and soon (3-6 months). Apparently the plutonium reactor at Arak is what Israel is telling the US absolutely 100% cannot come online. Once the reactor is fueled, bombing it will cause major fallout over civilians and so it must be hit before anything else.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IR-40

Israel's attacks on Syria's and Iraq's reactors were similar to Arak and were hit before fueling.

Natanz - This place is huge and is both above ground and below. They have apparently piled dirt 22 meters high on top of 10 ft of reinforced concrete. About 10,000 centrifuges operate there. Multiple AAA and SAM sites protect Natanz.

Fordow - This is hard to analyze. Its either 30ft below ground or 30 meters. I would imagine several B2s would have to hit it. Fordow apparently only has 1 SAM site. Thats it.

Bushehr - I actually don't think they'd hit the two new reactors here. They are fueled, operating and Russians are there. They also cannot easily be used for WMD.

I don't think it makes sense to bomb the facilities without also deteriorating Iran's ability to respond. I would imagine strikes on naval assets, missiles sites near straight of hormuz and airfields.

I think the US would also hit oil platforms and Kharg Island to destroy some oil infrastructure and further weaken the economy.

I believe air strikes would also attack the IRGC Revolutionary guards bases across the country. That would severely diminish their response ability.

I think there are probably 1000 targets total. I don't think a land invasion is likely. It would be much costlier.
 
silentbob
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:28 am

I don't think any theoretical attack would target oil facilities. Site defenses and other applicable military targets, like airfields and possibly Revolutionary Guard units, would be the only other targets in my opinion. I really couldn't even see them going after the submarine facilities either.
 
fridgmus
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:35 am

In regard to what Silentbob posted, I read somewhere, I can't remember where, but during the Arab-Israeli wars, oil pipelines were intentionally left alone.

Can anyone with better bandwidth & research skills than me verify this?

Thanks,

F
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:18 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Thread starter):
I think the US would also hit oil platforms and Kharg Island to destroy some oil infrastructure and further weaken the economy.

I'm not saying we wouldn't do that, but it would be a very bad idea. If Iran's really expecting an attack from us & the Israelis, they'd likely have reserves stashed anyway. This would really only affect the economy outside Iran.

Quoting solarflyer22 (Thread starter):
I don't think it makes sense to bomb the facilities without also deteriorating Iran's ability to respond. I would imagine strikes on naval assets, missiles sites near straight of hormuz and airfields.

Perhaps from a logistical point of view, yes. But it would be very difficult not to interpret that as an unprovoked act of war. I get that a lot of GCC nations would be in favor of such a thing for their own reasons, but ultimately, I see this being something that makes things worse, not better, in the long run...


Whatever happens, the best outcome will ultimately be something that doesn't involve military action.
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Nicoeddf
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Mon Oct 07, 2013 2:25 pm

Quoting solarflyer22 (Thread starter):
So I believe that a US and or Israeli strike on Iran's facilities is likely and that negotiated settlements will fail. With that in mind, here's what I think is likely, and please opine.

There is one urgent, reason for a strike and soon (3-6 months). Apparently the plutonium reactor at Arak is what Israel is telling the US absolutely 100% cannot come online. Once the reactor is fueled, bombing it will cause major fallout over civilians and so it must be hit before anything else.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IR-40

Israel's attacks on Syria's and Iraq's reactors were similar to Arak and were hit before fueling.

Natanz - This place is huge and is both above ground and below. They have apparently piled dirt 22 meters high on top of 10 ft of reinforced concrete. About 10,000 centrifuges operate there. Multiple AAA and SAM sites protect Natanz.

Fordow - This is hard to analyze. Its either 30ft below ground or 30 meters. I would imagine several B2s would have to hit it. Fordow apparently only has 1 SAM site. Thats it.

Bushehr - I actually don't think they'd hit the two new reactors here. They are fueled, operating and Russians are there. They also cannot easily be used for WMD.

I don't think it makes sense to bomb the facilities without also deteriorating Iran's ability to respond. I would imagine strikes on naval assets, missiles sites near straight of hormuz and airfields.

I think the US would also hit oil platforms and Kharg Island to destroy some oil infrastructure and further weaken the economy.

I believe air strikes would also attack the IRGC Revolutionary guards bases across the country. That would severely diminish their response ability.

I think there are probably 1000 targets total. I don't think a land invasion is likely. It would be much costlier.

So all in all, the US is declaring war on Iran?
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11Bravo
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:10 pm

Quoting silentbob (Reply 1):
I don't think any theoretical attack would target oil facilities.

I don't either, but.... I think halting production and shipment of Gulf oil would be the very highest priority for Iran. They would work very hard to make sure the West had major oil problems if we attacked their WMD targets. Perhaps we will decide it's worth it, but an attack similar to the one outlined in the IP would likely have very serious economic consequences for the US and Europe. The prospect of a major world energy crisis strikes me as problematic at best. Lets not be naïve about the consequences of attacking Iran.
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Kiwirob
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:22 pm

Quoting solarflyer22 (Thread starter):

There is one urgent, reason for a strike and soon (3-6 months). Apparently the plutonium reactor at Arak is what Israel is telling the US absolutely 100% cannot come online. Once the reactor is fueled, bombing it will cause major fallout over civilians and so it must be hit before anything else.

So when will we organise an attack on Dimona, there is no reason to hit the Iranians unless you're going to impose sanctions on Israel until they shut down their nuclear weapons program, it's pretty much the same as saying the US is allowed nukes but the Russians aren't, or India can have them but not Pakistan.

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 4):

So all in all, the US is declaring war on Iran?

The US won't do a thing, I'd put money on it, if Israel does anything the international condemnation will be pretty massive and the political fallout from it will hurt them for a long decades, the world doesn't need another rogue state, which is what many would see Israel as if they acted alone.
 
Okie
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:46 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 5):
I don't either, but.... I think halting production and shipment of Gulf oil would be the very highest priority for Iran. They would work very hard to make sure the West had major oil problems if we attacked their WMD targets

We do not get little if any oil through the Gulf. Most is now pipelined around taking Iran out of the picture. The previous sword rattling by "nut job" made the Arab states build the pipeline. The only real previous threat would only surface when Iran was running short of money and would rattle their sword to drive up oil prices. They need the money to arm the country.
History has repeated itself in Iran. There is nothing different today than previous regimes. The Shaw spent all the money arming the country until the people suffered and was overthrown. Iran is running out of money again arming itself and it probably in short order the people will start to suffer and the cycle will start all over again.

If any country went on the offensive it would only take a few hits on the Iranian oil ports to starve out the population and cause an overthrow again. Meanwhile the normal cycle by the Iranian leader's seem to be following the previous failures.

Okie
 
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Aesma
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:33 am

Any kind of unprovoked massive attack would be foolish and condemned by about everybody at the UN except some US/Israel puppets.

The NPT is an UN treaty, you can't enforce it outside of the UN. Of course Israel doesn't care about the UN (even though Israel was created by it), but usually they try to appear as the good guys. Bombing one reactor might do that, but nothing more.

Don't forget Israel has lost a great ally with Ahmadinejad. It's self evident when you hear Netanyahu saying that Rohani is no better : http://www.panorama.am/en/comments/2013/10/07/netanyahu-iran/
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:45 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Thread starter):
So I believe that a US and or Israeli strike on Iran's facilities is likely and that negotiated settlements will fail.

Not gonna happen. Didn't we learn anything from Iraq? Do we still honestly believe that Iran is going to launch a nuke at TLV and DC the second they make a nuclear device?

North Korea is probably the most insane country out there, they have nukes, and they haven't done anything. As much as I dislike Iran's leadership, they are not suicidal and they aren't the evil that the media makes them out to be. The people especially are a lot different than Americans would believe. They are pretty modern and surprisingly secular.

While I'm not holding my breath, I hope the President's chats with the new Iranian president go somewhere, even if they ease tensions a bit. A nuclear Iran won't be the end of the world, and as much as I don't want to see them with nukes, I especially don't wanna see another war where thousands WILL die
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:52 am

Bombing Iran will come to bite us in the end. Egypt is in turmoil and look how high oil spiked from the $85-$90 range. Imagine bombing Iran's facilities. Expect oil to spike to at least $200.

I want to give this new administration a chance to prove its good will to negotiate, but the West must also be willing to hold talks in a diplomatic manner. Israel doesn't and shouldn't get to dictate what the US should do (to me it only reinforces the notion that the US is nothing but a puppet for Israel). I firmly believe that any country should have the right to nuclear technology (in the far future I think it's gonna be one of the fuels for energy), but I also believe that any country that wishes to harness nuclear energy should be trusted and that's something that the world community still doesn't have with Iran: trust.
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11Bravo
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:26 am

Quoting okie (Reply 7):
We do not get little if any oil through the Gulf.

I think that is a miscalculation. All the professional analysis I read suggests that a major military conflict with Iran in the Gulf would have a serious impact on global energy costs. The US doesn't get oil from Iran per se, but lots of other countries do. As others have stated, even small events in the Middle East can have significant impact on oil prices. A large-scale attack on Iran would cause much more significant increases.
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Okie
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:08 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 11):
I think that is a miscalculation

That is a correct calculation.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 11):
All the professional analysis I read suggests that a major military conflict with Iran in the Gulf would have a serious impact on global energy costs

Exactly key word cost.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 11):
The US doesn't get oil from Iran per se, but lots of other countries do.

Nor any NATO countries. Ever hear of an embargo. Iran is having trouble selling its production.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 11):
As others have stated, even small events in the Middle East can have significant impact on oil prices.

Prices yes, supply Abu Dhabi pipeline is your friend.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 11):
A large-scale attack on Iran would cause much more significant increases.

I do not think anyone is going to attack Iran. I was just pointing out that Iran itself does not export much oil due to the embargo and has few options to load tankers, a couple of missiles would starve them out. Last time I checked even China has dropped back to less than 100,000bbls per day on Iranian oil imports. Exactly why "nut job" was rattling his sword every few weeks to try to get oil prices up to supply the country's coffers since they cannot move oil on the market because of embargos.

The Iranian government is about to run out of money arming itself. They have few options left before they start having to cutting resources to their citizens.
Did you not get the idea when all the sudden the Iranian leaders want to talk.


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AR385
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:25 am

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 4):
So all in all, the US is declaring war on Iran?

An according to the OP, wipe them off the Earth.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 10):
Egypt is in turmoil

And Libya.

Besides, if Russia was able to do away with any meaningful measures against Syria, I doubt they would let something like what the OP suggests to occur in Iran.
 
PHX787
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:45 am

This whole strike will never happen.


This new president is trying his damndest to strengthen ties to the west. HE KNOWS that a strike on Israel will mean death.

What are you all talking about?!
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Kiwirob
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RE: Strike On Iranian Nuclear Facilities And Rest

Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:48 am

Quoting okie (Reply 7):
If any country went on the offensive it would only take a few hits on the Iranian oil ports to starve out the population and cause an overthrow again.

You know the embargo is a load of crap, its more of an inconvienence than anything else, unlike Cuba Iran isn't an island, it's surrounded by many countries who don't really care what the US has to say. There are literally thousands of dhows travelling between the Emirates and Iran daily, if you go to the border between Iran and Azerbaijan there are truck convoys heading across full and comming back empty every day.

Quoting okie (Reply 12):
Iran is having trouble selling its production.

China and India are buying all the Iranian oil they can get there hands on, they apparently don't give a monkey's about the US embargo.

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