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Mortyman
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:49 pm

Russia has conducted a test launch of an intercontinental balistic missile, the news agency RIA.

The rocket of a RS-12M Topol launched by Russia's strategic missile force from southern Astrakhan region near the Caspian Sea on Tuesday.

The rocket hit the target, which was an exercise area in Kazakhstan, said Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Yegorov RIA. (© NTB)
 
11Bravo
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:59 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 200):
Russia has conducted a test launch of an intercontinental balistic missile, the news agency RIA.

This test flight has been scheduled for some time. Russia notified the US and others about this test long before this ugliness started in the Ukraine.
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HELyes
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:08 pm

Quoting lewis (Reply 193):
Paranoid much?

Paranoid or not but sometimes the messages from Russia leave you confused at least...

Finland has a lot of immigrants from Russia and a couple of years back Russia was clearly testing how Finland reacts if they come to "defend" the Russians living in Finland. The Russian authorities and the media had a confusing campaign giving an impression that Russian immigrant families are persecuted in Finland.

In 2012 Russia’s children’s ombudsman Pavel Astahov said Russia might declare Finland to be “a dangerous country” for Russian families with children.

The campaign ended as suddenly as it started.
 
Stabilator
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:11 pm

The missile test was planned. Russia notified the US a while ago. They even gave a specific time frame. While tensions are high, we can't construe this as a further act of aggression. Let's try to keep each side as level headed as possible.
So we beat on against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.
 
Mortyman
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:09 pm

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 201):
This test flight has been scheduled for some time. Russia notified the US and others about this test long before this ugliness started in the Ukraine.
Quoting Stabilator (Reply 203):
The missile test was planned. Russia notified the US a while ago. They even gave a specific time frame. While tensions are high, we can't construe this as a further act of aggression. Let's try to keep each side as level headed as possible.

I am aware of, this. However, in my opinion, Putin should have held back on these test and shown restraint, considering the volatile situation.
 
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Aesma
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:21 pm

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 179):
30 million demonstrators take the street of Egypt to oust a useless president, even elected in an election with a lot of question marks. The USA cut part of the aid to Egypt while Putin throw all his weight behind the new regime.

Ousting unpopular leaders rarely leads to international condemnation. The problem is what happens after that. If you create a dictatorship/junta instead, you can't expect approval (except from Russia, I mean).

Quoting tu204 (Reply 198):
Well you have some pretty radical elements that came into power from Western Ukraine. They never did hide their nationalistic sentiment.

What do you mean by "came into power" ? Power is very much in flux right now, provisional government and all that. As far as I know the legislative branch is in charge, and it's composed of the people that were elected in 2012. The fact that some stopped supporting the president leading to a change in power is hardly "radical elements coming into power".

Quoting tu204 (Reply 198):
That's one approach, wait until blood starts flowing on the street, spend a month debating and then clean up a bigger mess. After which you have politicians that make comments like "we should have done something sooner".

Well that's exactly what happened in Kiev. Wait until things degenerate, then kill protesters, then offer elections, well guess what, too late !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Kiwirob
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:22 pm

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 174):
As for banning dual citizenship, plenty of countries do that including big ones like India-why is that a problem exactly?

It's a huge problem for 2 of my kids, Norway has some pretty stupid rules over dual citizenship which make having a multinational family difficult.

Quoting HELyes (Reply 202):
Finland has a lot of immigrants from Russia and a couple of years back Russia was clearly testing how Finland reacts if they come to "defend" the Russians living in Finland. The Russian authorities and the media had a confusing campaign giving an impression that Russian immigrant families are persecuted in Finland.

Aren't most of the Russian immigrants in Finland living there by dint of them being Finnish? One of the ladies in our St Petersburg office moved to Finland recently due to her grandfather being Finnish.
 
FlyingSicilian
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:36 pm

Quoting Stabilator (Reply 203):
Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 206):
It's a huge problem for 2 of my kids, Norway has some pretty stupid rules over dual citizenship which make having a multinational family difficult.

I have a multinational family too and multiple citizenships, however some countries do not allow it that is just the way it is.

Are you planning on invading Norway because of it?
Ci sono formiche qui
 
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Kiwirob
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:40 pm

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 207):

Are you planning on invading Norway because of it?

I've already invaded, set up a beach head and started breeding.
 
RussianJet
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:44 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 206):
Aren't most of the Russian immigrants in Finland living there by dint of them being Finnish? One of the ladies in our St Petersburg office moved to Finland recently due to her grandfather being Finnish.

Some, but in general not so much - it's just generally popular. I have Russian friends in Finland and they have very wide Russian social circles. I have never heard of any of them having Finnish ancestry, and it's clear that there are generally a fair number of Russian migrants there.
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Flaps
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:46 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 175):
Well the West is usually wrong when it comes to Russia. Everyone was crying "annexation" when Russia forces repelled a Georgian attack against Southern Ossetia. What happened after? South Ossetia and Abkhazia gained recognition of their independence and are now independent states with close ties to Russia.

Independent states with close ties to Russia.....Now there is a good one. Best laugh I've had all day, Please name me one instance where Russia (or the Soviet Union as Putin is clearly a Soviet product) has taken possession of a territory and ever left, let alone respected the independence of said territory, If either South Ossetia or Abkhazia wanted to assert their independence and developed ties with the EU or an Asian trade bloc do you really think Russia would let them? That isnt independence.

I can think of only two such instances, Afghanistan and Cuba where they were kicked out and escorted out respectively.
 
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SOBHI51
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:47 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 199):
Can you please clarify what you want of foreign policy?

Just trying to find an explanation of why there is 2 different policy concerning the will of the people to get rid of bad leaders even if elected.
I am against any terrorist acts committed under the name of Islam
 
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HELyes
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:05 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 206):
Aren't most of the Russian immigrants in Finland living there by dint of them being Finnish?

Around half of the 70,000 Russian-speaking people in Finland are so called Ingrian Finns who made the first immigration wave after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, nowadays most of the new immigrants from Russia are ethnic Russian.

In 2012 around 30,000 had citizenship of the Russian Federation, dual citizens included. Estonian Russians make an other Russian speaking group in Finland.

[Edited 2014-03-04 14:11:50]
 
tu204
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:18 pm

Quoting Flaps (Reply 210):

What surprises you in the fact that no Superpower likes losing a state from it's sphere of influence?
I can even top your examples: What happened in Cuba when Castro threw out Batista? The U.S. tried (and failed nicely) to retake Cuba in the Bay of Pigs., when Chavez threw out the U.S. puppet in Venezuela the U.S. tried (and failed) a coup to oust him. Do you think the West would have looked kindly to Ukraine establishing closer ties with Russia? We have the answer to that question right now.
You can be independent and be in someone's sphere of influence. Two different things here.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Kiwirob
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:36 pm

Quoting Flaps (Reply 210):
Best laugh I've had all day, Please name me one instance where Russia (or the Soviet Union as Putin is clearly a Soviet product) has taken possession of a territory and ever left, let alone respected the independence of said territory

Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, there's 4.
 
FlyingSicilian
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:57 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 214):
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

They still violate their airspace often. This is why NATO runs AWACS out of GK to watch them and defensive air caps there. Though your point is taken, however the list of those states they do not respect is longer also.
Ci sono formiche qui
 
bilgerat
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:03 pm

Quoting Flaps (Reply 210):
Please name me one instance where Russia (or the Soviet Union as Putin is clearly a Soviet product) has taken possession of a territory and ever left

Yugoslavia.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:26 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 163):
Any nation harbouring russian citizens can be invaded if asked by the
russian nationals. Even Sweden could be a legitimate target as we have many russians working here.

In this case I think a hostile take over of Gotland is more likely due to the
Russian gas-pipeline that goes through Swedish territorial waters just east of Gotland and
that Russia might feel a "need" to protect it.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
RussianJet
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Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:27 pm

Czechoslovakia. And there are others.
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
wingman
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:36 am

All the EU needs to do is turn off the gas. Easier said than done and in the short term a very painful move, for Germany especially. But there are other sources of gas, the US being one of them, and a long-term move to disconnect a modern and stable EU from an unpredictable nutbag like Putin is a smart move.

And as I write this up comes a flash from the Telegraph reporting that Gazprom is ending Ukrainian discounts and the country has to pay up $1.5B "or else". But according to Putin this has nothing to do the political situation. I guess Vlado must be under the impression that the rest of the world is also pickled in vodka and actually believes his bullshit.

Will Putin parachute into Crimea tomorrow to rally his troops? Will he have his shirt on? Can he parachute in with his shirt off and on top of a horse? Or perhaps carrying a pet tiger? So many fundamental questions...
 
Mir
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:24 am

Quoting tu204 (Reply 198):
That's one approach, wait until blood starts flowing on the street, spend a month debating and then clean up a bigger mess. After which you have politicians that make comments like "we should have done something sooner".

National sovereignty means that countries get the first crack at dealing with their own internal affairs. There are downsides to that, but the downsides to preemptively assuming countries to be incapable of handling internal security and therefore occupying them are far worse.

Of course, if blood did start flowing on the street, I very much doubt that Russia would spend a month debating. There would be troops in there within days, and they'd have a decent case for being there. Rather than occupying a sovereign country to protect select people from a threat that does not exist.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
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casinterest
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:25 am

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 211):
Just trying to find an explanation of why there is 2 different policy concerning the will of the people to get rid of bad leaders even if elected.

2 Different countries and 2 entirely different set of conditions occurring. Especially as far as democracy is concerned.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:32 am

Quoting wingman (Reply 220):
But there are other sources of gas

I read several articles about it yesterday and the general consensus was the
demand for gas was very low at the moment due to the unusually mild winter
so there was not the same demand for gas which mainly is used for warming up buildings.
Then the winter in Europe is almost over and the spring is around the corner.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...y-ukraine-crisis-russsia-pipelines
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...-11e3-a050-dc3322a94fa7_story.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...st-gas-price-commerzbank-says.html

Also the pro-Russian protests in Eastern Ukraine seems to have faded somewhat as
there currently are larger Pro-Kiev protests going on according to Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...-crisis-east-idUSBREA2321L20140304
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
RussianJet
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:47 am

Quoting OV735 (Reply 219):
1940 and 1944 Baltic States
1956 Hungary
1968 Czechoslovakia
1979 Afghanistan
1991 Lithuania
1990s Chechnya
2008 Georgia

Being Russian, it's not a real option to call others invaders.

Chechnya has no business being on that list. It was no kind of 'invasion' - it is part of Russia, there was armed insurrections.
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
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SOBHI51
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:48 am

Quoting casinterest (Reply 222):
2 Different countries and 2 entirely different set of conditions occurring. Especially as far as democracy is concerned.

So when the majority of the adult population wants to depose a president that's not democratic, while a minority wanting the same thing, that's democracy? Who decides that? I thought the people and not the white house. But i could be wrong, my understanding of democracy might be different than others.
I am against any terrorist acts committed under the name of Islam
 
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casinterest
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:55 am

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 225):
So when the majority of the adult population wants to depose a president that's not democratic, while a minority wanting the same thing, that's democracy? Who decides that? I thought the people and not the white house. But i could be wrong, my understanding of democracy might be different than others.

Depends on your definition of minority and majority and what actually happened. What the US was fighting for was the Ukrainians attempts to work on their internal strife without external interference. What Russia did, was put pressure and posture for external influence. It is a highly different scenario , and your simplistic characterization of each situation does no justice to the dynamics and timelines involved.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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SOBHI51
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:55 am

Quoting casinterest (Reply 226):
What the US was fighting for was the Ukrainians attempts to work on their internal strife without external interference.

Did not know that the Ukraine was part of the US. So the US who has no interest whatsoever was not considered external interference, while Russia with few millions Russians in the Ukraine trying to protect them ( according to Putin) are external interference.  
Quoting casinterest (Reply 226):
and your simplistic characterization of each situation does no justice to the dynamics and timelines involved.

Well i am a simple guy who divide things to black and white, i don't try to hide behind terms like dynamics and such.
I am against any terrorist acts committed under the name of Islam
 
AR385
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 3:17 am

Quoting wingman (Reply 220):
But there are other sources of gas, the US being one of them,

Please explain to me how is the entire EU going to get gas, let alone cheaply, from the US? Aside from LNG ships it´s not going to be that easy.

Quoting ThunderboltDrgn (Reply 223):
I read several articles about it yesterday and the general consensus was the
demand for gas was very low at the moment due to the unusually mild winter
so there was not the same demand for gas which mainly is used for warming up buildings.
Then the winter in Europe is almost over and the spring is around the corner.

True. But remember that Winters start again and that many industries depend on gas. It´s not just heat.

At the same time Russia will loose a lot of hard currency if they stop exporting gas, so it´s not going to be easy for both sides to get that commodity in this mess.
 
OV735
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:56 am

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 224):
Chechnya has no business being on that list. It was no kind of 'invasion' - it is part of Russia, there was armed insurrections.

Alright, fair enough, no Chechnya on the list:

1939 Finland (thank you to Preben Norholm for the reminder)
1940 and 1944 Baltic States
1956 Hungary
1968 Czechoslovakia
1979 Afghanistan
1991 Lithuania
2008 Georgia

Really makes it considerably shorter and less embarrassing, doesn't it?

And those armed insurgents in Chechnya... you can see some parallels with the heavily armed men in unmarked uniforms in Crimea, right? I sure hope Ukraine doesn't follow the example set by Russia in how to deal with them.
 
Mir
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 5:36 am

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 227):
Did not know that the Ukraine was part of the US. So the US who has no interest whatsoever was not considered external interference, while Russia with few millions Russians in the Ukraine trying to protect them ( according to Putin) are external interference.

Of course, there is a massive difference between being politically involved (which Russia was as well, and nobody really has a problem with that) and sending troops into another country.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 228):
True. But remember that Winters start again and that many industries depend on gas. It´s not just heat.

At the same time Russia will loose a lot of hard currency if they stop exporting gas, so it´s not going to be easy for both sides to get that commodity in this mess.

However, Europe has a relatively diverse energy industry and thus is well-positioned to reduce their reliance on Russian gas significantly. It would be difficult at first, but eventually it wouldn't mean that much.

Russia, on the other hand, is very reliant on gas exports, and compelling Europe to reduce their demand would hurt them much more in the long term.

Quoting OV735 (Reply 230):
And those armed insurgents in Chechnya... you can see some parallels with the heavily armed men in unmarked uniforms in Crimea, right? I sure hope Ukraine doesn't follow the example set by Russia in how to deal with them.

One thing's for sure: if they do, Russia will certainly object.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
Pyrex
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 5:38 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 214):
Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, there's 4.

Being too broke at the time to fight back does not equate to letting it go.

Quoting bilgerat (Reply 216):
Yugoslavia.

When did Russia occupy Yugoslavia?

Quoting OV735 (Reply 219):
1940 and 1944 Baltic States
1956 Hungary
1968 Czechoslovakia
1979 Afghanistan
1991 Lithuania
1990s Chechnya
2008 Georgia

Don't forget 1920 Armenia, etc. etc. etc. (besides 1939 Finland, as was already mentioned).

Quoting AR385 (Reply 228):
Please explain to me how is the entire EU going to get gas, let alone cheaply, from the US?

There is plenty of shale gas in Europe as well, it is just a question of Europeans stopping being blackmailed by the "Green" parties (whose interests have always been aligned with Moscow) and start exploring it. The Poles who know better than anyone what being dependent on the Russians for anything means, have started already.
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
Danny
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:28 am

Quoting Pyrex (Reply 232):
Quoting OV735 (Reply 219):
1940 and 1944 Baltic States
1956 Hungary
1968 Czechoslovakia
1979 Afghanistan
1991 Lithuania
1990s Chechnya
2008 Georgia

Don't forget 1920 Armenia, etc. etc. etc. (besides 1939 Finland, as was already mentioned).

And last but not least Poland 1939 - jointly with Hitler.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_invasion_of_Poland

[Edited 2014-03-04 23:47:32]
 
BarfBag
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:06 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 169):
Not at all. Just because he has an opinion on Russian presence does not mean that he has any say over whether it's acceptable or not.

More on this topic:
http://rt.com/news/russian-troops-crimea-ukraine-816/
Russia allowed to have 25,000 troops in Crimea

The Russians currently maintain a force level of 16000. They've also denied making any sort of ultimatum towards Kiev (http://rt.com/news/russia-dismiss-ultimatum-ukraine-644/). Combine the two pieces of information, and what you have is very little credibility surrounding the hand-waving about 'Russian invasion!!' Effectively a meaningless argument where the decision to believe whatever Russia might have said, is an article of faith, and not a fact.
 
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pvjin
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:10 am

Quoting OV735 (Reply 228):

1939 Finland
1940 and 1944 Baltic States
1956 Hungary
1968 Czechoslovakia
1979 Afghanistan
1991 Lithuania
2008 Georgia

That + Poland really isn't particularly much for an old cold war superpower, not that many at all after death of Stalin.


It will be interesting to see what's the outcome of this whole conflict. I would imagine increased autonomy for Russian majority areas of Ukraine could be a solution good enough for all sides.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
OV735
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:51 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 239):
Russia knows and admits that in a conventional conflict the Russian military cannot prevale against NATO/US forces. As a result Russia has adopted a nuclear first strike policy in the event of such a conflict.

This puts the West in a difficult position, since any attempt to intervene in the crisis by deploying troops could result in fighting between Western and Russian forces, which could in turn trigger a Russian nuclear launch. Western leaders have a difficult calculation to make assessing the risk of a nuclear exchange vs. stopping Russia from seizing territory of sovereign nations.

Interesting view, and a rather scary one, too. A good position to hold negotiations though, if the point of no return is at such an early stage.

Apparently according to BBC, foreign ministers Lavrov and Kerry are to have talks to try and ease the tensions. I don't see Russia backing out of this, and given Obama's relatively relaxed foreign policy, the best one can hope for is that a diplomatic solution where Crimea is separated from the Ukraine, is found. Provided of course, that the Ukrainians are willing to accept such an agreement.

Obviously this would mean that the Budapest Memorandum can be thrown into the bin and another dangerous precedent is set, showing that security assurances by any of the signatories aren't worth a penny.


EDIT: Apparently one of the comments I responded to, has been rightfully deleted. Reply deleted as well.

[Edited 2014-03-05 03:02:05]
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:16 am

An article from Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...-crisis-east-idUSBREA2321L20140304

Quote:
Tide of opinion turns against Russia in Ukraine's east

President Vladimir Putin's declaration on Saturday that Russia had the right to
invade Ukraine was accompanied by pro-Russian demonstrations across Ukraine's
mainly Russian-speaking south and east.

But in the four days since, the tide of opinion in eastern cities appears to be turning
back towards Kiev.

Bearing placards with slogans such as: "I am Russian. I don't need protection," the
protesters marched near the occupied regional government building, staying far enough
away to avoid clashing with the pro-Russian youths still inside.

"My parents are from Russia. I was born in Ukraine, but I am Russian. My children and
grandchildren were born here. We are for Ukraine," said Natalia Sytnik, who turned out to
protest against the prospect of a Russian invasion.

"We did not ask for help. I don't want him, Putin, to bring tanks here. I don't want them
to shoot at my kids. Let him hear us: 'Do not defend me from anyone. No one is attacking me'."

Kiev says the protests - which erupted simultaneously in Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk
and several other cities hours before Russia's parliament voted to grant Putin authority for
armed force - were organized by Moscow as a pretext to invade. It says most of the
pro-Russian demonstrators were Russians brought across the border in busloads.

It is certainly clear that many of Gubarev's followers are not from Donetsk, where locals
speak Russian with an easily recognizable accent. One, who said he was a miner from
a nearby village, was unable to name either the village or a single mine in a region known
across the ex-Soviet Union for its coal.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:23 pm

Quote:
#BBCtrending: Russian site recruits 'volunteers' for Ukraine

Russian social media users are being asked to cross the border into Ukraine to offer "moral support".

"We need men aged 18-45 who are already in Ukraine, or are ready to go," says the
"Civil Defence of Ukraine" page on VKontakte, the main Russian-language social network.
The page was set up just over a week ago and has more than 7,000 followers. It includes an
online form calling for recruits and is asking male volunteers to cross the border, to offer what
it calls "moral support" to people they believe have been put at risk by the recent "coup".

Vladimir Prokopenko, whose name is at the top of a list of members on the site, was unavailable
to talk to the BBC but has been widely quoted in the Russian press. He says he wants Russians
to travel to Ukraine to engage in peaceful protest rallies. "If the situation becomes violent, then we
will not send anyone," he told the Novaya Gazeta newspaper.

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-26435333

So it seems that many of the pro-Russian "protesters" aren't living in Ukraine at all.

[Edited 2014-03-05 04:23:32]
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
tu204
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:49 pm

Have a look at this peaceful protest in Kiev. Especially at the end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baXVOVDDAXI#t=163
Makes Somalian pirates look civilized.
I think our forces should stay there at least until Ukraine can hold valid elections and solve their internal problems.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
JJJ
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:50 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 231):
And last but not least Poland 1939 - jointly with Hitler.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_...oland

Well, Ukraine is probably not the one to complain about Russia's expasionism. Most of his growth has been thanks to their Russian buddies.

 
Hywel
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:55 pm

Breaking news: The Kiev snipers were hired by Maidan leaders

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEgJ0oo3OA8

Officers of Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) loyal to the ousted President Viktor Yanukovich have hacked phones of Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Paet and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton and leaked their conversation to the web. The officials discuss their impressions of what's happening in the country after the revolution. The gist of it is that Ukrainian people have no trust in any of the leaders of Maidan.

However the most striking thing of all is the fact which concerns the use of force during the revolution, particularly the snipers who killed both protesters and officers of the riot police. Mr. Paet reveals astonishing information which confirms the rumours that the snipers were employed by the leaders of Maidan.
 
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n229nw
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:56 pm

For the record, I think Putin is a dangerous thug (though I don't know what better prospects Russia has at this moment as the kool-aid is running pretty free and some of the opposition is worse). And everything he accuses "the West" of he has done himself and more. But for crying out loud, he is not Hitler. The Hitler comparisons raised by some are absolutely insane. Hitler's Anschluss was not precipitated by long civil unrest in the countries he invaded, among many other differences.

In the real world, powerful countries will do extremely dubious things to preserve their spheres of influence. The current situation has more in common with US interference in South American politics than with WWII...

Much as I understand, given history, why Poles and citizens of the Baltic states, even Czechs etc. have reason to always fear the worst about Russia, there is a lot of paranoia on this thread too.

Quoting bilgerat (Reply 126):
I'm disappointed but not surprised to see so many people still have to break the world down into good guys and bad guys so their brains can more easily process events.

That's the best statement on this thread. Sadly, the truth is usually that everybody is the bad guys to some extent. Or rather, everybody has valid concerns but sees themselves as the only victims, and thus lets their most extreme elements seem to speak for them.

Quoting bilgerat (Reply 126):

I'm no fan of Putin nor indeed the modern Russia, but I'm even less of a fan of the utterly moronic way the western (especially American) media has to break everything down into good guys and bad guys for their increasingly ill informed and ignorant audiences.

In fairness, I don't think it is only the US media. (And Russian media seems to do it extra well...)

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 135):
Let's be honest - both the west and Russia are choosing convenient positions, and neither have any moral standing here.

Probably true. The question is how to deal with the situation given the realpolitik and the simple realities on the ground. So you have a proposed solution?

Quoting wingman (Reply 220):
Will Putin parachute into Crimea tomorrow to rally his troops? Will he have his shirt on? Can he parachute in with his shirt off and on top of a horse? Or perhaps carrying a pet tiger? So many fundamental questions...


  

Thanks for introducing some comic relief into the thread.

Quoting Danny (Reply 166):
Putin had a press conference today. I now understand why Angela Merkel said that he is completely detached from reality. Protesters on Majdan according to him are "professional terrorists trained in Poland and Lithuania" while the highly trained and armed special forces on Crimea are just "spontaneous self created self defence militia".

Of course, sometimes reality is just as funny as jokes. There an article by Timothy Snyder in the NY Review of books recently that points to some of the way that Russia's claims that the protestors are all "fascists, neo-nazis" etc. etc. is rather ironic:

Yet it is the Ukrainian regime rather than its opponents that resorts to anti-Semitism, instructing its riot police that the opposition is led by Jews. In other words, the Ukrainian government is telling itself that its opponents are Jews and [telling the West] that its opponents are Nazis.

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/arch...ssia-and-ukraine/?pagination=false

I should say that Snyder in his way is very biased against Russia in almost all his writings, and I'd take some of this article with a healthy grain of salt (for example, there are racist and other unsavory elements in the anti-Russian protests even though they are a minority) but he's onto something with this line. Calling the opponents fascists is a cheap propaganda shot, especially coming from regimes that exploit xenophobia to its maximum potential for theirown self-preservation

Quoting tu204 (Reply 172):
You are making one mistake here: Russia did not annex anyone. I can bet you money that Crimea will never be a part of Russia. It will be an independent state with close ties to Russia.

Although I don't agree with anything else you have written, I'm inclined to agree with you on this.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 187):
Despite what you may think, I can actually sympathize with Russia I'm all of this. The transfer of the Ukrainian was so gray I don't think anyone can fully be on the right side.

The problem I have is Russia's actions seem pretty extreme given the situation. I can totally get behind protecting the Crimean minority and I can see the arguments that they may be discriminated against in the future but look at the present situation... how many Crimean have been attacked? Do we have that much unrest in Crimea?

Russia sending in the troops seems like a justifible action if the Ukrainian military started killing Crimean Russians. We aren't seeing that, we are seeing unrest (mostly in Kiev) and some laws/actions that may have an anti-Russian bias but that isn't reason to mobilize a bunch of troops and take over part of another country.

I'm all for Crimean indepence if that is what they people want. Heck, I don't care if they join Russia again. I just think Russia is going about it the wrong way and it's really hurting their case and causing unnecessary tension

There is anti-Russian bias in the West, no doubt, but actions like these don't do anything for Russian-Western relations, even if they can justify it in their eyes. A lot of us see it as shady, so why not show good will and accomplish the same goal (protection and independence of Crimea) in a different way that de-escalates tensions?

Also, it really helps gets one point across when one can answer the hard questions, admit one's own country's flaws (just as I often do,) and not make bizarre comments about ripping up Canadian passports or whatever. I try and listen to the Russian perspective but a lot of it comes off as bias and there is a lot of unneeded condescending remarks

The other best post.


Quoting Pyrex (Reply 232):
it is just a question of Europeans stopping being blackmailed by the "Green" parties (whose interests have always been aligned with Moscow)

  

[Edited 2014-03-04 21:55:15]
All Glory to the Hypnotoad!
 
Danny
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:32 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 237):
I think our forces should stay there at least until Ukraine can hold valid elections and solve their internal problems.

Elections in Ukraine are none of your business. Internal problems of Ukraine are Ukrainian's problems and give no right to Russia to invade them.
 
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Asturias
Posts: 1977
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:36 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 1):
Regretably the history repeats itself. Jiust like the West did nothing when Hitler took Austria, then Czechoslovakia then Poland. they do nothng when Putin takes Georgia, now Ukraine next Lithuania / Latvia / Estonia / Poland. This could turn into World War III but narrowminded western leaders still keep thinking like in 1939 "We 're not going to die for Crimea".

Goddammit! I was going to enjoy reading this fine thread and the very first post ruins it with a Nazi/Hitler Godwin invocation. Whether the analogy is correct or not, it is too intellectually lazy and that's it's worst offense.

There are or should be a multitude of similar examples through history that might be better applicable to a war in Crimea... such as perhaps maybe possibly the *Crimian War*?

But nooo, let's go straight to a Hitler analogy. Trued and tried killer of internet forum threads since 1969. Well done sir, and that in the very first post. Here have a swastika for your trouble.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 64):
From ZeroHedge

Rule number 4280 subsection F, in life: never read Zero Hedge, it's a claptrap of hyperbole, nonsense and ignorance. That website is so dumb it boggles the mind.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 86):
It will stop when Putin has finished building his own EU made of ex Soviet Republics. That was his aim all along, but the EU let it slide after giving full support to the Baltic states. In a way, this is also partly the fault of Brussels´ bureaucrats

Funny story, but bureaucrats in Bruxelles have no say in such matters. It's endearing when people use that particular verbiage to describe the local MPs of EU countries. Everything good is because of Mr. Politician MP or minister of this or that, but stupid things happen because of bureaucrats in Bruxelles.

No, in fact good things, bad things, smart things and stupid things happen because of the local elected representatives of the sovereign countries that make up the EU - while the job of the "bureaucrats in Bruxelles" is just to follow orders from said politicians. The "bureaucrats in Bruxelles" have no power regarding foreign policy. At. All.

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 92):
Brussels buraucrats can be accused of all kinds of things but in this case I would cut them some slack as they are moreless innocent in all of this as EU foreign policy is still shaped on a national level and comrade Baroness Ashton is just a figurehead.

  

Now, I don't care to take sides here, but evidently the major players here outside Ukraina are Russia, a number of European countries and the USA. While I do not appreciate the idea that Russia is mobilizing and occupying Crimea, it isn't a surprise. Nor is it a surprise that European countries do not appreciate anyone poking the fragile balance that is Europe - even at the periphery.

What concerns me the most and frankly surprises me the most is that the USA has concerns in Ukraina at all. That the USA is meddling in that country is frankly the most concerning thing to me. The USA should not be there, it is bad enough that the USA is undermining the sovereignty of a great many European countries, including mine.

It is even worse that the USA is positioning itself as a major player in a part of the world that they should not be in at all. Whatever happens in Ukraina is first and foremost a concern for the people who live there, but geopolitically it is a Russian-European issue and mixing US interests there is unacceptable from a European point of view.

Simply because US interests and European interests may or may not coincide - and where US interests diverge from ours, that might reduce the fragile stability of this situation, but Europe has to live besides Russia. The US does not.

I still remember the Balkan debacle and the terrible terrible result because of US interests outweighing our own, resulting in even more tragedy than anything that resulted from that war.

The US is a great country, I adore the US. I just prefer them in their own back yard, because when one invites them over, they tend to overstay their welcome every time.
Tonight we fly
 
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casinterest
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:01 pm

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 226):
Did not know that the Ukraine was part of the US. So the US who has no interest whatsoever was not considered external interference, while Russia with few millions Russians in the Ukraine trying to protect them ( according to Putin) are external interference.

So the US can invade any country where US citizens are present.

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 226):
Well i am a simple guy who divide things to black and white, i don't try to hide behind terms like dynamics and such.

There are many shades of Grey between black and white. To say you don't try to understand them is just ignorance of the situation.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
tu204
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:14 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 241):
Elections in Ukraine are none of your business. Internal problems of Ukraine are Ukrainian's problems and give no right to Russia to invade them.

If those nice individuals from my video make their way down to Crimea and start doing the same with the local population, it becomes my business. They have barely any control over anything going on in the country. Let them figure it out, guarantee the rights of minorities and the forces will leave. Russian Forces are pretty much the only thing guaranteeing that what happened in Kiev (casualties and needless property damage) doesn't spread to the Crimean Peninsula.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Mir
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:29 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 237):
I think our forces should stay there at least until Ukraine can hold valid elections and solve their internal problems.

Your forces should get out of there now, or at least get back to their bases. They can monitor the situation from Sevastopol or Russia proper and respond quickly if needed, and nobody would have a problem with that.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 244):
If those nice individuals from my video make their way down to Crimea and start doing the same with the local population, it becomes my business.

Perhaps. But it hasn't happened yet, and thus there's no justification for Russian troops being there.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 244):
Russian Forces are pretty much the only thing guaranteeing that what happened in Kiev (casualties and needless property damage) doesn't spread to the Crimean Peninsula.

This is unsubstantiated conjecture. Especially since things in Kiev don't seem to be spiraling out of control. There are protests, sure, and protests can turn violent. But that's not in and of itself an indicator of a government losing control, otherwise you could claim that pretty much every government in the world has lost control of its country at some point.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
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DeltaMD90
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:35 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 237):

I think our forces should stay there at least until Ukraine can hold valid elections and solve their internal problems.

So we need Russia, the US, or some other country to be policemen and send in troops every time a country has internal conflict? I know you might not think so, but I actually agree with a lot of what you are saying but the means to how we handle the situation are much different.

I don't like how Russia has been so aggressive in their intervention. Russians werrent being killed, Ukraine wasn't to the point of no return and didn't absolutely need intervention, and nothing says Ukraine couldn't handle the situation themselves.

Russia is just acting really shady IMO (and yes, tu204, the US does the same thing a lot and I speak out against that too.) Russia has legitimate interests in the area and Russia's opinion does weigh into all this. The way Russia is handling it is just straining relations with the West. I know we we can strain relations as well but neither is right. The West and Russia could be really good allies too, it's too bad we'd rather be standoffish and hostile to each other. This situation is doing nothing good and will hurt Russia in the long term, IMO, as well as harm us
 
Danny
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:40 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 244):
If those nice individuals from my video make their way down to Crimea and start doing the same with the local population, it becomes my business.

Criimea is Ukrainian so its still none of your business.
 
RussianJet
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 3:17 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 248):
Criimea is Ukrainian so its still none of your business.

Absolute rubbish. You can choose to quite deliberately ignore the cultural relationship and the very unique history of the Crimea as regards relations with Russia, but if you do so then you choose to completely misunderstand the situation.
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
Mir
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Putin Ups The Stakes: Seeks Military Intervention (1)

Wed Mar 05, 2014 3:32 pm

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 249):
Quoting Danny (Reply 248):
Criimea is Ukrainian so its still none of your business.

Absolute rubbish.

Quoting from the Crimean Constitution (empasis is mine):

SECTION I
GENERAL PROVISIONS

CHAPTER 1.
Constitutional Foundations of Status and Powers
of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Principles and Guarantees
of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Article 1.
Status of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,
the Supreme Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea
and the Council of Ministers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

1. The Autonomous Republic of Crimea shall be an integral part of Ukraine and it shall solve, within the powers conferred upon it by the Constitution of Ukraine, any and all matters coming within its terms of reference.


Can we put this "Crimea is not really Ukrainian" thing to bed now? It is Ukrainian territory, plain and simple. Russia is in Ukrainian territory, without permission of the Ukrainian government. That's just simple fact. If you want to get into whether Crimea is culturally Ukrainian, that's a reasonable discussion to have, but that's ultimately irrelevant to whether Russia's actions are legally legitimate, since culture doesn't enter into that at all.

http://www.rada.crimea.ua/en/bases-of-activity/konstituciya-ARK

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day

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