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mirrodie
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BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 2:43 am

http://jalopnik.com/bp-says-the-worl...ears-of-oil-left-should-1602354842

Let the good times roll.

Seriously, I should look into geothermal and/or solar now that we bought a new house.
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bristolflyer
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 2:57 am

53 years by BP's standards probably means 153 years by other oil companies standards - we're safe.  
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727LOVER
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:05 am

53 years???

OK, I'm 48 now....

48 + 53 =
101

Yeah, I'm sure I'll be dead then....so who cares?!  

It may have been 54 if they hadn't spilled it all in the Gulf of Mexico
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BMI727
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:13 am

Why would any company want to convince the public that their product is scarce?
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:34 am

Antics and disasters aside, BP is one of the largest oil companies in the world, so I'd be close to believing them; but on the other hand, it is BP...

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 2):
It may have been 54 if they hadn't spilled it all in the Gulf of Mexico

I was *this* close to making a Gulf of Mexico joke!
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bchandl
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:07 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 2):
It may have been 54 if they hadn't spilled it all in the Gulf of Mexico

4.9m barrels spilled in the Deepwater Oil Spill.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill

The world consumes 90+ million barrels per day.

http://cdn.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/m.../uwd/issues/2014/040914-img-01.jpg

Meaning if we could get that oil back it would have powered the world for roughly 90 minutes.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:33 am

This is good news. If this is true, the price of oil will rise and other fuels will have to take over. Because the new fuels would have to be renewable, they can be scaled up and get cheaper.
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CalebWilliams
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:35 am

Quoting bchandl (Reply 5):

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 2):
It may have been 54 if they hadn't spilled it all in the Gulf of Mexico

4.9m barrels spilled in the Deepwater Oil Spill.

I believe that was tongue-in-cheek, but I could be wrong.
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PHX787
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:44 am

Everyone on this planet releases a projection, then a new source of oil is found...

As much as I am for green energy, as far as I can read, the oil reserves we have are fine for our current lifetimes.
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bchandl
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 7:13 am

Quoting CalebWilliams (Reply 7):

Oh it totally was, I know it was.

The comment made me curious about how much was lost/spilled and the topic of the post made me curious how much we use per day.... So I just did the math. Then I posted it.

bchandl
 
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seb146
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 7:54 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 8):
As much as I am for green energy, as far as I can read, the oil reserves we have are fine for our current lifetimes.

And what about your grandkids? To heck with them? Besides, if we, as a country, get ourselves off oil, we can finally be free from the controls of OPEC. People keep talking about pumping more oil so we can be energy independent but what they fail to realize is that oil prices are set, in part, by OPEC and they can slow or stop production at any time.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
If this is true, the price of oil will rise and other fuels will have to take over. Because the new fuels would have to be renewable, they can be scaled up and get cheaper.

That has been said since the gas shortages of the 1970s. Where has it gotten us? Using gas to power cars. What a novel idea.
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Francoflier
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 12:27 pm

The amount of oil reserves is actually dependant on the price of oil. The more expensive it is, the more doable it is to go look for it in less reachable places. Think Canadian tar sands...

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 3):
Why would any company want to convince the public that their product is scarce?

Hehe. Good point.
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na
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 12:55 pm

53 years? Why not 52 and 11 months, or 53 and 2 months? The figure of how much oil is left changes every year since I have heard of it. I think its not wise to try to be so precise.
 
mt99
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 1:56 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 3):
Why would any company want to convince the public that their product is scarce?

So they can charge more for it?

Quoting mirrodie (Thread starter):
Seriously, I should look into geothermal and/or solar now that we bought a new house.

Don't bother. Your household electricity does not come the same "gas" as your car runs on.

The US needs a comprehensive energy strategy, including a revamped energy market. Random people with solar panels on their house will not solve the problem. In fact, its creating a problems.
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einsteinboricua
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:15 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 3):
Why would any company want to convince the public that their product is scarce?

Maybe because they're realistic about it? Maybe to charge more? Maybe to move to alternate sources? All of these are possible.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 8):
As much as I am for green energy, as far as I can read, the oil reserves we have are fine for our current lifetimes.

That's a "kick the can down the road" attitude. Oil won't run out in my lifetime, so why rock the boat? Sure...but what about your kids, when they have to face a world that's still dominated by fossil fuels? If you thought $148/barrel was high, just wait.
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L-188
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:42 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
If this is true, the price of oil will rise and other fuels will have to take over.

I forget what economist said it, but you can never run out of any commodity since at some point alternatives become cheaper.

We don't use a lot of oak logs to heat our homes anymore for example. Because of the demand for the logs for other applications such as furniture it isn't economic to burn them as a primary heat source despite the fact they are very effective at that.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
Because the new fuels would have to be renewable, they can be scaled up and get cheaper.

Not necessisarily. Look at corn prices since Ethanol got pushed a decade ago. You create additional demand for a source material you increase the cost of that material.
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cedarjet
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:43 pm

The number sounds about right, but it won't just stop overnight, it will gradually get more and more expensive as we have to dig deeper, further underground, further out to see, further from the point of consumption. The trouble with the current economic "recovery" (it's pretty anaemic as it is) will drive up energy consumption as people buy, travel, eat and consume more, which will immediately cause a jump in energy prices which will tip us right back into recession. And repeat.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 8):
As much as I am for green energy, as far as I can read, the oil reserves we have are fine for our current lifetimes.

Wow, so who cares if we leave nothing but a smoking crater behind. Pretty shameful attitude dude. I am not happy that my way of life will reduce future generations to energy scarcity and penury (not to mention climate disaster and bio-diverstiy collapse) and nor should you.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
A320ajm
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 5:13 pm

Hi all,

Working in the oil and gas industry, here is my 2 cents for what it's worth.

As the need for oil and gas increases, the price will. Higher prices will allow for more scientific and engineering research into exploration and production. This will have 2 consequences:
1. Targets that are currently not economically viable will become viable.
2. The new methods and research will allow current targets that are too complex to develop, explore or produce to be viable.

These are just some of the reasons why oil and gas reserve forecasts aren't that accurate. I wouldn't be surprised if in 53 years time, BP release a report saying there are 53 years of reserve left.

Best Regards,
A320ajm
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DocLightning
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:39 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 10):
That has been said since the gas shortages of the 1970s. Where has it gotten us? Using gas to power cars. What a novel idea.

Well, for one thing, the research is trucking along. The big costs to new-generation biofuels is refinement. If we can scale up production and bring costs down, they can be made competitive with fossil fuels as the cost of drilling for new oil gets higher and higher.

Quoting L-188 (Reply 15):

Not necessisarily. Look at corn prices since Ethanol got pushed a decade ago. You create additional demand for a source material you increase the cost of that material.

It's a pet peeve when I say "biofuels" and someone says "ethanol." Ethanol is not a viable biofuel. It's a direct result of federal policy with regard to corn subsidies. Ethanol has a larger carbon footprint than straight gasoline and is far less economical in many ways. Ethanol is not a good example of a biofuel.

A good biofuel will 1) Not be made from a food or feed crop 2) Not be raised on land used to raise food or feed crops (preferably will be raised in desert) 3) have a zero or negative carbon footprint 4) Use minimal water. Jatropha and vertically-grown photobioreactor algae are two such examples. Corn ethanol meets zero of these requirements and is not a serious biofuel.

For now, it would be nice if biofuels would actually have negative carbon footprints, which is the case for some projections of vertically-grown photobioreactor algae if we can get around some of the technical hurdles. That could become problematic in the future, however. What a strange and wonderful problem it would be to have...at least from our current point of view.
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bchandl
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 13, 2014 11:57 pm

Quoting a320ajm (Reply 17):

Very good points, thanks for sharing.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
It's a pet peeve when I say "biofuels" and someone says "ethanol." Ethanol is not a viable biofuel. It's a direct result of federal policy with regard to corn subsidies. Ethanol has a larger carbon footprint than straight gasoline and is far less economical in many ways. Ethanol is not a good example of a biofuel.

  

I've never understood the GM push for ethanol bio fuel capable vehicles in like 2008.

bchandl
 
Okie
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:27 am

Quoting bchandl (Reply 19):
I've never understood the GM push for ethanol bio fuel capable vehicles in like 2008

The big GM push was due to GM producing vehicles in Brazil that use ethanol. They already had the technology to deal with ethanol.
Basically a marketing ploy to gain advantage by having Flex Fuel capabilities already developed and in production.

Doc points out the problem with ethanol in the US. We have to take food off the table and subsidize ethanol production by using corn for feed stock.
It takes 1 unit of petroleum/energy to make 1.3 units of ethanol using corn. Brazil uses sugarcane for feed stock which is much more sustainable and uses 1 unit of petroleum/energy to produce 6 units of ethanol.

There will be an eventual shift to other methods to produce a fuel when they become financially viable.
We have a lot of natural gas 100 year supply according to some and an infrastructure to distribute it now.

I think we will see a temporary shift to natural gas for internal combustion engines for land vehicles.
I believe the long term (15 + years or so) is going to be a natural gas fuel cell and a super capacitor to propel a electric vehicle.
That should come up to near double the energy efficiency we have now with internal combustion engines automatically cutting pollution in half just by the gain in efficiency.

Okie
 
bchandl
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:39 am

Quoting okie (Reply 20):
I think we will see a temporary shift to natural gas for internal combustion engines for land vehicles.

Completely agree...

Thanks for the informational post!

One question though:

Why sell the ethanol cars in the US if they were mainly for Brazil? Car companies make a wide array of products, many specifically targeted at a certain geographic region.

bchandl
 
Okie
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:16 am

Quoting bchandl (Reply 21):
Why sell the ethanol cars in the US if they were mainly for Brazil

GM has several plants in Brazil. They just had to transfer the technology to US manufactured engines.
There is a profound difference in the quantity between ethanol and gasoline for stoichiometric charge, ignition timing and a few other issues with components.
Probably designing a injector with a seat and pintle with the turn down ratio for both fuels and still having a good spray pattern was not easy.

Okie
 
bchandl
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:34 am

Quoting okie (Reply 22):

Can't figure out if you are:

a scientist with a passion for auto work

An engineer with an automotive background and a working knowledge of sciences outside of engineering

A GM exec.

-----------------------

Regardless, thanks for the info. Great posts, you are obviously very knowledgable on the topic. Thanks for sharing!

bchandl
 
solarflyer22
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:53 am

I don't think its just an issue of availability though and its oftened dumbed down this. Everyone hears about "Peak Oil" which we may or may not be hitting soon but that's a simplistic analysis.

Part of the problem is that its just getting too expensive. Its costing too much to drill deeper, then refine it and ship it. All the cheap oil on the surface is going to be emptied out in 25 years. Even then, some of whats left is in places like Iraq.

And for Canada, yeah I get it, the Tar Sands are the next Saudi Arabia. But when you have to dig up sand, boil the heavy oil off, then refine it, then ship it, you have to come to the conclusion that it will never be cheap gas either. Too much effort.

Bring on the solar panels and batteries. If the $10 billion a year spent on sub-sidizing oil drilling went to solar/wind/battery research and sub-sidies I think you could cut gas consumption and prices in half. Carbon emissions too.
 
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seb146
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:14 am

Quoting okie (Reply 20):
I believe the long term (15 + years or so) is going to be a natural gas fuel cell and a super capacitor to propel a electric vehicle.

What happened to hydrogen cells?

This is directed at no one in particular, just something that irritates me:

I have heard economists say that if demand is high, prices will drop. Some of those same economists will later say that if demand is high, prices will rise. I have seen people on this board use that same logic. I don't follow.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
flymia
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:23 am

There are a good amount of places that have not been drilled and barely even looked out. Not saying renewable don't need to come up very soon but there is more oil out there. Also for things like Airplanes it will be difficult using anything other than oil.

Wonder when the first nuclear powered Cruise Ship comes online.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
Okie
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:26 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 24):
Part of the problem is that its just getting too expensive. Its costing too much to drill deeper, then refine it and ship it. All the cheap oil on the surface is going to be emptied out in 25 years

That is the solution, not the problem.
The value of the product drives the technology to find more oil and better ways to produce it. When the price comes up for a unit of hydrocarbon energy then other sources of energy that were not financially viable will take over. It is a natural market based solution.
I have no issues with wind or solar. The issue I have is that it is being artificially funded by the US tax dollars and being placed in production about a 15 years before its time while paying China to build it.
The equipment that is being installed right now will be heading for the scrap pile by the time we really need it and technology will have grown to the point the equipment will be obsolete.
That is just my thought.

Who knows 50 years from now we may be back digging up coal as they find better ways to produce the energy from it.

That is the beauty of engineering and technology.

Okie
 
Okie
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:35 am

Quoting seb146 (Reply 25):
What happened to hydrogen cells?

They will be a novelty.
About the only source of free hydrogen is the atmosphere which is only 0.00005% it would take an enormous amount of energy to extract it.
Otherwise you have to manufacture it by electrolysis or recover it from some other process, again expensive.
There is no infrastructure to even distribute the quantities required.

A fuel cell will work on many hydrogen compounds. Natural Gas, Gasoline, Diesel. We already have infrastructure for those fuels.
There is one problem with those. The sulfur compounds and a few other compounds that come with naturally occurring hydrocarbon base fuel are a death nail for a fuel cell.
Doc had a link in another thread that indicated that they have come up with catalyst to deal with those compounds to protect the fuel cell.
This is a break through for sure but probably a decade or more before reaching commercial production.
This also leads to storing the energy from regenerative braking and having capacity for quick acceleration. I predict that super capacitors will take that function instead of batteries, it is already being used in F1.


Okie
 
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DocLightning
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:35 am

Quoting okie (Reply 27):
have no issues with wind or solar. The issue I have is that it is being artificially funded by the US tax dollars and being placed in production about a 15 years before its time while paying China to build it.

There is also an interest in ameliorating climate change AND political dependence on oil. If we can make electricity plentiful enough, we can use it to power most (not all) of our daily lives. Planes and ships will still need more concentrated energy sources than can be provided by batteries. But not so for cars, trucks, and lawn mowers. Or hot water heaters. Electricity can come from clean sources and we need to develop those sources.

Electricity can also be used to crack water for hydrogen

Quoting okie (Reply 20):
It takes 1 unit of petroleum/energy to make 1.3 units of ethanol using corn.

It's that good? I thought the ratio was worse than 1.

Quoting okie (Reply 20):

I think we will see a temporary shift to natural gas for internal combustion engines for land vehicles.
I believe the long term (15 + years or so) is going to be a natural gas fuel cell and a super capacitor to propel a electric vehicle.
That should come up to near double the energy efficiency we have now with internal combustion engines automatically cutting pollution in half just by the gain in efficiency.

An all-electric car has a number of efficiency benefits over a hybrid model except at high-speed cruise. I don't know how quickly fuel cells can be started and stopped, though.
-Doc Lightning-

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BMI727
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:37 am

Quoting L-188 (Reply 15):
I forget what economist said it, but you can never run out of any commodity since at some point alternatives become cheaper.

Precisely. There is no need or benefit to tampering with the economics.

Quoting bchandl (Reply 23):
Can't figure out if you are:

a scientist with a passion for auto work

An engineer with an automotive background and a working knowledge of sciences outside of engineering

A GM exec.

Or someone who reads Motor Trend.

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 24):
Everyone hears about "Peak Oil" which we may or may not be hitting soon but that's a simplistic analysis.

You don't know if you've hit it until after the fact. And advances in technology could mean more than one peak.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 25):
I have heard economists say that if demand is high, prices will drop.

If production increases, prices may drop. If prices drop demand will rise.

The price drop precedes the demand increase. I'd like to buy a Gulfstream, but I can't unless the price drops. Companies figure out how to make things cheaper because they know people want things but cannot afford them, i.e. the demand will increase as price drops.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 25):
Some of those same economists will later say that if demand is high, prices will rise.

It's a question of whether you can make more money by charging more or charging less and selling more. BP seems interested in the former, with the twist that in the oil business if you charge more you can extract more to sell.

Quoting okie (Reply 28):
They will be a novelty.

I agree. There are much better ways to store electricity than fuel cells.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 29):
Electricity can also be used to crack water for hydrogen

You can do the same and get hydrocarbons, which we already have all of the infrastructure for.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:58 am

Quoting a320ajm (Reply 17):
As the need for oil and gas increases, the price will. Higher prices will allow for more scientific and engineering research into exploration and production.

I would like to believe that is the case, yet with such large profits you have to wonder if their priorities are really R&D.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Boeing717200
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:55 pm

Quoting mirrodie (Thread starter):

They must have had a bad quarter. Gotta drive that price up.
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solarflyer22
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:57 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 25):

What happened to hydrogen cells?

I think Hydrogen fuel was abandoned as its not commercially viable and was a bad idea from the Bush Administration.

A Hydrogen Fuel Cell is different and is viable as a niche product for now. Its used in Germany's 0 emission buses, space applications and submarines.

Quoting okie (Reply 27):
That is the solution, not the problem.
The value of the product drives the technology to find more oil and better ways to produce it. When the price comes up for a unit of hydrocarbon energy then other sources of energy that were not financially viable will take over. It is a natural market based solution.
I have no issues with wind or solar. The issue I have is that it is being artificially funded by the US tax dollars and being placed in production about a 15 years before its time while paying China to build it.
The equipment that is being installed right now will be heading for the scrap pile by the time we really need it and technology will have grown to the point the equipment will be obsolete.
That is just my thought.

Did you not just read the 53 year timeline the thread poster literally just posted? There is no amount of technology that will make Iraq safe enough to drill for the 10% that's there and there are complications in Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya too. Even with an exponential jump in drilling technology how are you going to make something like Canadian Tar Sands as efficient as sticking a pipe into Saudi Arabia?

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 30):
Precisely. There is no need or benefit to tampering with the economics.

That's a double edged sword. I didn't say make up new subsidies for Solar, I said move the existing subsidies from oil/gas to Solar. The reality is that the US Government subsidizes both because its beholden to both special interest groups.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 31):
Higher prices will allow for more scientific and engineering research into exploration and production.

It will, but do you really expect to see $2.00 gas because of that improvement? I don't. It might slow down price growth by 2-4% but that's it.

People don't just want gas, they want cheap gas and we are already devoting too much of every dollar simply to move people and goods.

Elon Musk is working on the giga-battery factor for Tesla and is Chairman of SolarCity as well. I suspect if he is able to bring economies of scale to batteries as well as solar panels, it will be a major challenge to gas powered cars. They are quoting about $1.35 per gallon of gas as the comparison. There is zero possibility of gasoline reaching $1.35 per gallon ever again imo. I'd be shocked if it falls under $3.00.
 
bhill
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:03 pm

For those of you thinking the Petroleum Industry economics is simply based on "supply and demand" ...put the pipe of what ever you are smoking down. It is the most manipulated industry on the planet! And because it is such a critical commodity to the planet...it's allowed. What other market..REALLY...where when the supply is plentiful...and demand is down...the price STILL increases.

And the reason you will not see real hydrogen..especially from water...used is that there is no profit from it, it IS the most abundant element in the universe ...because when you burn H2O you get what you put "in the tank"..the Earth is covered in 70% of it, desalination is easy. The ONLY folks that would make money is the auto industry, and Big Oil, ain't gonna let that happen....and until A LOT more research..$$$...is spent on how we can use all the water around us, it's not gonna happen.
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DocLightning
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:48 pm

Quoting bhill (Reply 34):
And the reason you will not see real hydrogen..especially from water...used is that there is no profit from it, it IS the most abundant element in the universe ...

Carbon is also abundant on earth. The reason we won't see H2 is because 1) It has to be cracked from something and that requires energy input 2) it's a storage problem (explosive cryogenic compressed gases yay!) 3) You need a large volume of it to get the same energy out of a much smaller volume of hydrocarbon and 4) by the time we have hydrogen fuel cells running, we'll have other technologies that have much less trouble with them.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
A320ajm
Posts: 587
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:51 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 31):
I would like to believe that is the case, yet with such large profits you have to wonder if their priorities are really R&D.

I, with respect, disagree. Oil and gas companies are much more likely these days to spend the money on exploration and appraisal technology and innovation, rather than risk putting a $100,000,000 well in the wrong hole in the ground. In my job, a heavy hand in reviewing how successful a project has been is technological innovation. This is just my personal experience though.

Regards,
A320ajm
If the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, 'This was their finest hour.'
 
Ken777
Posts: 10148
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:49 pm

Quoting bchandl (Reply 5):
Meaning if we could get that oil back it would have powered the world for roughly 90 minutes.

If we could eliminate that BP FUBAR from history there would be far greater value to the costal areas that the costs of the lost oil.

Realistically gasoline delivers the most power per gallon (or cubic area) and is therefore going to be used for along time.

Other approaches, such as hybrid or electric cars are more intelligent for a lot of people, but costs keep it out of the majority. We need to increase benefits from economies of scale as well as using the tax system to move people onto better platforms. There is no reason why we cannot provide significant tax credits for light weight, high fuel efficiencies. It reduces wear on the roads and, when enough people are driving them, it pushes pricing of traditional fuels down. Conversely we need to have a large enough tax on heavier cars (both at purchase time and in annual tag costs) to encourage people to move to smaller, more efficient cars & trucks. That helps pay for road repairs as well as limits the attractiveness of the big cars & trucks.
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1883
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:19 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 37):
Conversely we need to have a large enough tax on heavier cars (both at purchase time and in annual tag costs) to encourage people to move to smaller, more efficient cars & trucks. That helps pay for road repairs as well as limits the attractiveness of the big cars & trucks.

That may have a huge negative effect on the shipping infrastructure in this country. Shipping is a major cost for construction, agriculture, food service, etc... Most of it relies on heavy trucks and rail.
 
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seb146
Posts: 22952
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:51 pm

Quoting bhill (Reply 34):
What other market..REALLY...where when the supply is plentiful...and demand is down...the price STILL increases.

Diamonds. DeBeers cranked up the price of diamonds by telling the world how rare diamonds are but, if you look around, they are actually very plentiful

Quoting bhill (Reply 34):
The ONLY folks that would make money is the auto industry, and Big Oil, ain't gonna let that happen

Big Oil could actually profit from it. They start putting money into R&D and they can work with auto industry and jack up prices so a gallon of H2, which would be priced at $1 a gallon, will be prices at $5 a gallon, including tax credits and subsides to the oil and car companies.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
BMI727
Posts: 11300
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:20 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 37):
We need to increase benefits from economies of scale as well as using the tax system to move people onto better platforms.

That's the last thing that needs to happen. That's been tried and it backfired. Simple economics is much smarter and more effective than all the bureaucrats in the world.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 37):
There is no reason why we cannot provide significant tax credits for light weight, high fuel efficiencies.

Yes there is. It's expensive (in the liberal sense of spending) and furthermore, it isn't the government's business.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 37):
It reduces wear on the roads and,

This is an outright lie. Every time some liberal tries to increase taxes on anything short of commercial trucks in the name of road damage, they are flat out lying to you.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 37):
Conversely we need to have a large enough tax on heavier cars (both at purchase time and in annual tag costs) to encourage people to move to smaller, more efficient cars & trucks. That helps pay for road repairs as well as limits the attractiveness of the big cars & trucks.

The government has no business encouraging anyone to drive or not drive anything.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 9307
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:08 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
If this is true, the price of oil will rise and other fuels will have to take over

True statement.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
Because the new fuels would have to be renewable, they can be scaled up and get cheaper.

False statement. Oil is not the only hydrocarbon available in abundance. Natural gas is plentiful and is a much more plausible transportation fuel and industrial feed stock than any current renewables.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 10):
And what about your grandkids? To heck with them?
Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 14):
That's a "kick the can down the road" attitude. Oil won't run out in my lifetime, so why rock the boat? Sure...but what about your kids

Despite your best efforts, you are going to leave a world free of problems to your children. They also won't be children when it's their turn to inherit our problems. They'll be fine.

[Edited 2014-07-15 10:08:49]
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 21960
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RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:58 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 41):
False statement. Oil is not the only hydrocarbon available in abundance. Natural gas is plentiful and is a much more plausible transportation fuel and industrial feed stock than any current renewables.

Natural gas is also a limited resource, it also contributes to global warming, and it's a compressed cryogenic gas with all of the storage and handling problems that raises.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
Ken777
Posts: 10148
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:10 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
That's the last thing that needs to happen.

Don't be afraid of smaller cars. My father had a TR-3 and it got good gas milage.  

My preference is to motivate people now to put a downward pressure on petrol prices rather then wait till the costs go through the roof and let the "market" pull people to smaller cars. Considering my age and yours it is pretty obvious that you have a far greater interest in that downward pressure than I have,

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
Simple economics is much smarter and more effective than all the bureaucrats in the world.

So why do the conservatives still insist on that $40 Billion tax credit?

For the smaller companies (including S Corps) tax incentives like accelerated depreciation are effective in generating economic activity.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
It's expensive (in the liberal sense of spending) and furthermore, it isn't the government's business.

Anytime you can lower road wear as well as demand for fuel you have generated a benefit for the government so it is realistic to consider a tax based incentive to be financially viable. Especially when you add in the tax penalties for those larger cars, SUVs and trucks.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
Every time some liberal tries to increase taxes on anything short of commercial trucks in the name of road damage, they are flat out lying to you.

Hate to tell you, but even in conservative states like Texas there are weight scales for the big rigs. You trying to tell me that big Lincoln SUVs are just as easy on the roads as a Mazda2 or 3?

BTW, I'm not talking about the big rigs hauling freight. I'm talking about the bug SUVs & trucks that are tooling around town, Don't know where you I've but big pick-em trucks & SUVs all over our streets.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
The government has no business encouraging anyone to drive or not drive anything.

The government has every business encouraging people to drive cars & trucks that cause the minimum wear on the bridges & roads and generates a minimum demand on fuel. Same as encouraging parents to get the best education for their kids as possible AND to ensure that they have their vaccines. If you have the ability to think long term then you would probably also support that overweight kids get an A1c blood test for glucose levels, with parents being required to attend dietary counseling when diabetes is indicated. Or is your preference to wait 20 years and face huge
 
BMI727
Posts: 11300
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:00 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 43):
Don't be afraid of smaller cars.

I like smaller cars for my own reasons, but I don't feel the need to force anyone else to.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 43):
My father had a TR-3 and it got good gas milage.

Any car gets good mileage when you're pushing it.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 43):
My preference is to motivate people now to put a downward pressure on petrol prices rather then wait till the costs go through the roof and let the "market" pull people to smaller cars.

People are already motivated because fuel costs money, so government action is completely unnecessary. Surely you noticed SUV sales fall off a cliff around 2007-2008.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 43):
Anytime you can lower road wear as well as demand for fuel you have generated a benefit for the government so it is realistic to consider a tax based incentive to be financially viable.

The government is not a party to how much fuel private entities use.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 43):
You trying to tell me that big Lincoln SUVs are just as easy on the roads as a Mazda2 or 3?

Science is telling you that.
SUV-Tax-and-Road-Damage-Do-the-Numbers-Add-Up/" target="_blank">http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Ma...Road-Damage-Do-the-Numbers-Add-Up/
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/o...-increase-20111019,0,4086033.story

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 43):
I'm talking about the bug SUVs & trucks that are tooling around town, Don't know where you I've but big pick-em trucks & SUVs all over our streets.

And that's why you're either wrong or just lying in support of a money grab.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
Ken777
Posts: 10148
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:45 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 44):
People are already motivated because fuel costs money, so government action is completely unnecessary

That is like saying that businesses, especially very small companies. are motivated to make a profit so government action in the area of accelerated depreciation is completely unnecessary.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 44):
The government is not a party to how much fuel private entities use.

IIEC the Government is the largest consumer of fuel and other petroleum products. That puts them at the top of the list for those with a reason to put downward pressure on costs.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 44):
just lying in support of a money grab.

It's really impressive to be called a liar from some kid who has yet to finish working one full year. Maybe you need to get some years behind you in the real world instead of reading the conservative pap you like to spew.
 
PHX787
Posts: 7892
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:12 am

Quoting seb146 (Reply 25):
What happened to hydrogen cells?

From what I know, they're extraordinarily expensive to produce....good luck selling these to poor nations.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 44):
Quoting Ken777 (Reply 43):
Don't be afraid of smaller cars.

I like smaller cars for my own reasons, but I don't feel the need to force anyone else to.

define smaller car.

I can't fit into a Japanese kei car, but was able to fit fine in my Honda Accord Coupe....but my Accord was very wide.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 41):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
Because the new fuels would have to be renewable, they can be scaled up and get cheaper.

False statement. Oil is not the only hydrocarbon available in abundance. Natural gas is plentiful and is a much more plausible transportation fuel and industrial feed stock than any current renewables.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 42):
Natural gas is also a limited resource,

Nope- Natural gas is being harvested from sources like waste dumps. And can also be synthesized.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 42):
it also contributes to global warming,

Again, only certain gasses will, and not nearly as much as petrol.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
Okie
Posts: 4188
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2003 11:30 am

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:05 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 42):
Natural gas is also a limited resource, it also contributes to global warming, and it's a compressed cryogenic gas with all of the storage and handling problems that raises

They are quoting 100 year supply with known reserves. That is not even touching the even more massive quantities of methane clathrate (hydrate).
The commercial harvesting of Clathrate is just in the experimental stages at this time.

Okie
 
BMI727
Posts: 11300
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:40 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 45):
IIEC the Government is the largest consumer of fuel and other petroleum products. That puts them at the top of the list for those with a reason to put downward pressure on costs.

I support the government wanting to do that. I'd be perfectly happy if every mail carrier drove a Prius, mostly because I'm not a mail carrier.

Where I draw the line is trying to force such things on consumers.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 45):
It's really impressive to be called a liar from some kid who has yet to finish working one full year. Maybe you need to get some years behind you in the real world instead of reading the conservative pap you like to spew.

The studies are very clear. Anyone who wants to levy taxes on large cars or SUVs in the name of road damage is doing one of two things: they're either just mistaken or they are lying to justify a money grab.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
Ken777
Posts: 10148
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: BP Says We've Got 53 Years Of Oil Left.

Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:12 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 48):
Where I draw the line is trying to force such things on consumers.

Forgetting that the government is a consumer and is also in line to benefit significantly from reductions in the total government fuel expense if downward pressures on fuel costs can be achieved. Or do you prefer to have your taxes increased to ensure there is no government motivation?

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 48):
The studies are very clear.

The insult from a kid who is still wet behind the ears is pretty clear. No telling what conservative publications you memorize but your ignorant obsession to insult people not as hard right as you are is more than clear.

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