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DocLightning
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On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:12 am

The vote is set to start in a couple of hours and I am so puzzled by all this. As an outsider, I have to wonder why the Scottish people would want independence.

Scotland is a country of some scant 5 million spread out across a country about the size of England. In spite of the small population, they are pretty spread out (unlike in Australia or Canada, where the population is concentrated) and so a lot of roads, transmission lines, water piping, rail lines, etc. need to be maintained. As part of the UK, national taxes help pay for a lot of this infrastructure. On top of that, entire new layers of bureaucracy (a new Prime Minister or President, his administration and branch of government, an entire diplomatic corps, etc.) needs to be created. I can see the tax burdens on the average Scot going up.

The governor of the Bank of England (admittedly not an unbiased source) has stated that it could lead in an increase in tax burdens of up to £18k per individual (or spending cuts of that much, which would be difficult).

Why do people want this?
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Kiwirob
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:03 am

Quoting DocLightning (Thread starter):
I have to wonder why the Scottish people would want independence.

Because they don't like the English, when you boil down all the reasons given this is end result.

Quoting DocLightning (Thread starter):
Why do people want this?

Too much Brave Heart, shortbread, whiskey and Alex Salmond plucking the heart strings with romantic notions of independence and how wonderful it will be once we are out from under the yoke of English tyranny.

Salmond has done a wonderful job hoodwinking the average jock, especially the young who are easily led, hence lowering the voting age to 16.

Quoting DocLightning (Thread starter):
In spite of the small population, they are pretty spread out

No they are not, most of the population is centered around Edinburgh, Glascow, Dundee.

 
NAV30
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:19 am

Worked on 'regional development' for a long time in Northern England. There's no doubt in my mind that such areas could not have survived without VERY substantial subsidies from 'central government' (basically amounting to the English south and midlands, who were making most of the money).

I know and love Scotland, but I don't think they have a 'cat in hell's chance' of prospering on their own. That oil won't last all that long. Hope (and expect) that they'll stick to the traditional membership of the 'United Kingdom.'
 
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:33 am

Without getting into this debate, I do find it ironic that the three posts so far, all of which are varying degrees of critical of Scottish independence from Britain, come from an American, an Australian and a New Zealander.
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PhilBy
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:49 am

And perhaps more ironic that while polls suggest it will be a 'NO' victory in Scotland, if they were to hold a referendum south of the border on whether to cut Scotland loose it would probably be a 'YES' result on the logic that 'if they don't want to be part of the UK we don't want them'.
 
Elite
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:02 am

Seeing the UK as a whole struggle already, it's hard to see what good it would bring if they are further divided.
 
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garpd
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:04 am

Well this Scot does not want independence. The whole thing is nonsense on stilts.

The party leading the campaign (The Scottish National Party ) refuse to answer questions on currency, economy and taxation until after the vote. Yes, they actually said that. "We can answer those questions after the referendum".

That's like offering to buy someone's house and telling them you'll only tell them how much you will pay AFTER they sign the property over to you. And astonishingly, a lot of people are going for it!

My Brother, bless him, tells me "It's worth a shot". As if we could just re-integrate with the UK at the flick of a switch, should it not all pan out how we hope.

The SNP promise higher public spending, a Scottish NHS, unchanged levels of taxation, lower business tax, etc.
All green fields, fluffy bunnies and unicorns. Not one single cloud. Not one single.. "But, this..."

It makes me deeply suspicious. And on Monday, that suspicion was proven correct. It was discovered that the SNP have a £400M hole in funds, for the health service alone.
Point that out to a Yes campaigner and they naively state "Oh, that's something to worry about after the vote".
It beggars belief.

One thing is clear however, all this referendum has done is split Scotland into Yes and No factions. Share your opinion in the wrong company and you can get anything from reluctant acceptance right down to verbal or even physical abuse. Cars have had their tyres slashed, windows broken. People have had eggs thrown at them. One or two places of business have been torched too.

As kind as Scots can be, we're all casually racist, mostly toward the English, in some degree or another. For no good reason these days. This referendum has brought those feelings to the surface with people wearing "If you've voting no, F*** off back to England" T-shirts. No campaigners are labelled as traitors, scum, English c**ts, etc.

There is a very real threat things could turn very violent on the announcement of the voting results. Pubs being allowed to remain open all Thursday night won't help that! Police Scotland will be doubling their numbers on patrol for this evening and all of Friday, in case the proverbial should hit the fan.

This whole thing is nonsense and is only serving to cause animosity and hatred toward one another.
Families have been split, friendships ruined.

It is a sad day for the UK, regardless of the outcome.



Read and see the nonsense for yourself:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/passions-running-high-scotlands-yes-city-222828137.html#FT6sE25

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/...9/17/fay-young-aye-we-can-but-why/

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/...oined-yes-and-why-i-changed-to-no/



[Edited 2014-09-18 00:09:15]
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Elite
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:08 am

Quoting garpd (Reply 6):
My Brother, bless him, tells me "It's worth a shot"

I think that is what a lot of people think; it has definitely been what Alex Salmond has been pushing. Something along the lines of, "This opportunity only comes once in a lifetime, even if it seems unfeasible, we still have to take it because we only have one chance." That, in itself, is quite dangerous as it pushes emotions ahead of rationality.
 
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nighthawk
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:12 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 1):
Because they don't like the English, when you boil down all the reasons given this is end result.

Too much Brave Heart, shortbread, whiskey and Alex Salmond plucking the heart strings with romantic notions of independence and how wonderful it will be once we are out from under the yoke of English tyranny.

Oh come on, that's just so not true, and just insulting.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 2):
Worked on 'regional development' for a long time in Northern England. There's no doubt in my mind that such areas could not have survived without VERY substantial subsidies from 'central government' (basically amounting to the English south and midlands, who were making most of the money).

There is a huge difference between the NE and Scotland. The NE is one of the poorest areas of the country, and relies heavily on subsidies. Scotland on the other hand operates at a surplus.

Interestingly in the light of the independence debate, Scotland receives no net subsidy. Using the Aberdeen University split of the oil and gas revenues (which gives Scotland 83%) the oil and gas revenues exactly cancel out the fiscal transfers from the non oil sector.
How Money In Some Regions Subsidises Others

The reason for many wanting independence is we are sick of being ruled from a Westminster government that only favours the south east. Why are Scottish travellers paying tax on flights, just because heathrow is full? Why are we helping to fund a 60bn rail link between London and Manchester? Why have we been dragged in to 2 wars that we all voted against? why are we running up 8bn a year in debt when we have a balanced budget? Add many more london centric decisions such as the favouring of banking over manufacturing etc and you can soon see why we are fed up and want change.

We are in the fortunate position that we have a sustainable economy and are capable of standing on our own two feet, so why should we continue to put up with being considered second class citizens and watch westminster spend all our money on projects to benefit the south?
 
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Braybuddy
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:44 am

The fascinating thing about this debate is how it mirrors the debate on UK membership of the EU. People who want the UK to pull out of the EU don't understand why Scots would want to become independent of the UK, when both arguments are similar.

Having said that, I don't expect a Yes vote today. There are far too many undecideds, and they tend to play safe when voting. I'm not coming down one one side or the other, however, it's entirely for the people of Scotland to decide, and whatever way it goes I will be happy with that.

If the Yes side does win, however, I don't believe Scotland would cease to be a member of the EU. Every Scot who holds a passport is also an EU citizen, and I don't see how this could be changed or challenged.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:53 am

Quoting Doona (Reply 3):
a New Zealander

A bit a Kiwi with damn near 100% Scots ancestry. I always feel at home in Scotland.

Quoting garpd (Reply 6):
Well this Scot does not want independence. The whole thing is nonsense on stilts.

Sensible man.

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 8):
Oh come on, that's just so not true, and just insulting.

Maybe not the first part but the bit about Alex Salmond is on the money, only a fool would vote for independence, anyone who really takes a deep breath sites down and looks at the cold hard facts will soon work out that Scotland will be worse off independant than it is now within the Union.

If you can accept being a citizen of a diminished country fine, vote Yes.

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 8):
Why are Scottish travellers paying tax on flights, just because heathrow is full? Why are we helping to fund a 60bn rail link between London and Manchester?

Are you really being serious about this? I wonder why my tax dollars in Norway are going towards motorway, hospital and education projects in Stavanger when I live in Molde, I wonder why I have to pay taxes on my flights despite have a local airport that's under utalised, I wonder why my vehicle registration money isn't being used on roads where I live but in other parts of the country. Why should any part of any nation pay for projects which don't immediately benefit them, that's what you are trying to say, as an argument for independence it's one of the daftest I've heard to date.

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 8):
We are in the fortunate position that we have a sustainable economy and are capable of standing on our own two feet

Sustainable at much lower levels than you enjoy today.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:04 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 1):
Salmond has done a wonderful job hoodwinking the average jock, especially the young who are easily led, hence lowering the voting age to 16.

Have a good buddy I worked with for years here in Japan who went back to Edinburgh and is now a solicitor. Not the dimmest bulb in the bunch, but he has been completely taken with the independence crap as well. Heard all the arguments fore and against, but at the end of the day, it's as many here said - his disdain for the English (particularly the rich bankers in London) trumps all. Pretty shortsighted.

Now, start talking Californian secession, and I'll listen. Might even move back...
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garpd
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:08 am

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 8):
Why are Scottish travellers paying tax on flights, just because heathrow is full? Why are we helping to fund a 60bn rail link between London and Manchester? Why have we been dragged in to 2 wars that we all voted against? why are we running up 8bn a year in debt when we have a balanced budget? Add many more london centric decisions such as the favouring of banking over manufacturing etc and you can soon see why we are fed up and want change.

And all of that will disappear with independence? Think again.
As a price for living in a nation where public services and infrastructure is paid for by taxes, you will not always benefit directly from it all.

This will be no different in an Independent Scotland.

Look at the huge amount of money (nearly £1Bn!!!!!) spent on the stupid Trams in Edinburgh. Net result: One stupid line that has done nothing the reduce traffic. Look at the parliament building. £405 Million. It was suppose to be only £45 Million.
I, and 90% of Scots do not directly benefit from these projects. I don't see those outside of Edinburgh complaining and wanting independence from the aforementioned city.
What about the hundreds of millions spent on the games in Glasgow? Plenty did not directly benefit from that either.

All the while, thousands of Scots are relying on food banks to feed themselves.
Hospitals are closing. Public spending cut.

But there is plenty money for the SNP and their referendum campaign.

Your argument is flawed, as is that of the entire Yes campaign.
Unfortunately, it seems there are enough divots listening to the SNP and believing every word they are saying.

The last politician who truly did what they said they would if voted into power was Thatcher. And look how that turned out for many millions!
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Aesma
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:16 am

Smaller countries with low population and no natural resources are fine so I don't see why it wouldn't work for Scotland, that's not really an argument.
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garpd
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:25 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 13):
Smaller countries with low population and no natural resources are fine so I don't see why it wouldn't work for Scotland, that's not really an argument.

That's not at issue, Aesma. You've entirely missed the point. Please educate yourself and the real issues.

Anyhow, argumentation is academic now. The people will vote as they see fit today.
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Asturias
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:31 am

Quoting DocLightning (Thread starter):
The vote is set to start in a couple of hours and I am so puzzled by all this. As an outsider, I have to wonder why the Scottish people would want independence.

I never understood why the American people would want independence, weird huh. Do you understand why Catalonia and the Basque country want independence? Do you understand why Norway wanted independence? Iceland?

Quoting Aesma (Reply 13):
Smaller countries with low population and no natural resources are fine so I don't see why it wouldn't work for Scotland, that's not really an argument.

Very true.

Any claim that an independent Scotland couldn't handle themselves economically is just bunk. The thing is, the least puzzling thing about this is why the Scottish people (or a large part anyway) would want independence. This is Europe. Independence of nation states is in our blood. It's like the second amendment for Americans.

The UK tried a very cynical and tried and true method they've applied many times, successfully. Get people to shut up those annoying independence whiners by having a referendum. This one looked very good for Westminster when it was given the green light a few years ago. Only a year ago it looked like 70% no, for sure. Everything according to plan.

And then the entire plan went south, the "yes" campaign got incredible momentum, and now the damage is already done. No matter the result, Scotland is on its way out of the UK. Either by a yes vote today, a devolution by a no vote today or by a unilateral decision if Westminster betrays the devolution promise a second time.

Best of luck to Scotland. But this is the beginning of the end for the UK.
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Kiwirob
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:15 am

I think the Yes vote will win out, problem is in 10 years time when Scots have high unemployment, lowering social standards, an economy in the toilet they won't be allowed back in. We can then all laugh and say I told you so.
 
Rara
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:22 am

I hope and believe the Scots will vote No today. Over 300 years together is an achievement that shouldn't just be discarded at whim. The UK is a success story that many people in the world look towards admiringly.

Nonetheless, I do have a feeling that independence would work out quite well for the Scots. In Europe there's a curious phenomenon that small countries, on the whole, fare better than large ones. Why this is I don't know, but I suspect that the smaller a country is, the more people feel associated with the common good, the more they identify with their national community and the more they've got the feeling they can really influence and shape their country's future. Also, smaller countries can more readily specialize in certain industries and trades, making better use of the EU's common market and the various aids and benefits the EU provides. Finally, representation in Brussels is another thing. Citizens from smaller countries have a much higher representation. For instance, there is one Maltese MEP for every 75.000 Maltese, but only one German MEP for every 850.000 Germans - so a Maltese citizen's interests are represented ten-fold as strong as a German's. The picture is similar in council voting rights etc. So I do believe that an independent Scotland could leverage its influence in Brussels much more effectively and to its own advantage than Britain as a whole does.

So rationally, yes, perhaps.. emotionally, no.  

How will the process go today? Until when are voting booths open, and when will results come in?
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frostyj
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:24 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 1):

EXACTLY! They would never admit this though.
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a320fan
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:25 am

Is there any firm clarification on whether they would be granted automatic entry to the EU? I remember reading that Spain would block them to dissuade some of their regions from seceding.

I think a yes vote would be a mistake for a variety of reasons others on this thread have stated.

One question is with Scotland been allowed to hold this referendum would this spark a desire in Northern Ireland to do the same and would they want to stay, be Independent or join the Republic?
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Rara
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:29 am

Quoting a320fan (Reply 19):
Is there any firm clarification on whether they would be granted automatic entry to the EU? I remember reading that Spain would block them to dissuade some of their regions from seceding.

The only thing made clear so far is that there won't be an "automatic" process of Scotland just remaining in the EU. They would have to re-apply. Yes, Spain is uneasy towards re-admitting them, but in the end they won't be able to block it. After all Scotland is an advanced country that fulfills all the necessary requirements.
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garpd
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:38 am

Quoting a320fan (Reply 19):
Is there any firm clarification on whether they would be granted automatic entry to the EU? I remember reading that Spain would block them to dissuade some of their regions from seceding.

The SNP and the Yes campaign say Yes, Scotland will be in Europe
All of Europe and the European presidents have all said that there is no automatic entry. Scotland would have to re-apply.
The SNP and the Yes campaign shrugged this off as scaremongering (Their favourite by to dismiss anything that doesn't fit their rose tinted view)

The SNP have said they'll renege on their share of the UK debt. Westminster have said if they did that, the UK would veto any entry application from Scotland into Europe. Spain will likely follow suit.

Salmond and his cronies are leading Scotland into an abyss under the promise of green fields, fluffy bunnies and unicorns.
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nighthawk
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:05 am

Quoting garpd (Reply 21):
All of Europe and the European presidents have all said that there is no automatic entry. Scotland would have to re-apply.

No they haven't. There has been no official statement from anyone, just a few opinions from a couple of people. These range from generic responses such as "new states have to apply", to "entry could be agreed within a few months".

Quoting garpd (Reply 21):
The SNP have said they'll renege on their share of the UK debt. Westminster have said if they did that, the UK would veto any entry application from Scotland into Europe. Spain will likely follow suit.

I have never once heard Westminster say they would block Scottish entry. Cameron has publicly stated that he would support Scottish entry to the EU in the event of independence.

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 10):
only a fool would vote for independence
Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 11):
but he has been completely taken with the independence crap as well.
Quoting garpd (Reply 12):
Unfortunately, it seems there are enough divots listening to the SNP and believing every word they are saying.

Can we please drop the insults, you are not helping your case. There are just as many highly educated people that have studied the facts and figures and came out in favour of independence as against it.
 
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casinterest
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:10 am

The problems for Scotland should the vote be yes will be compounded by the fact that about half the population will have voted no. The strength of these convictions and how they play out in a separation from the UK may prove more painful and troublesome than a lot of folks have estimated. There will even be those that vote yes that may move to England just to keep their jobs, and vise versa as well.

I have no doubt hat a country the size of Scotland could survive on it's own. Ireland does well enough. However the current interconnectedness of the UK economy , defense, and resources will create many issues during the separation that may cause a lot of pain for a long time.
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Kiwirob
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:42 am

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 22):
I have never once heard Westminster say they would block Scottish entry. Cameron has publicly stated that he would support Scottish entry to the EU in the event of independence.

You need to inform youself a little better. Besides I can't see the UK blocking Scotland, that would be spiteful, what I can see is Spain blocking you.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26173004
 
bilgerat
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:45 am

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 8):
Scotland on the other hand operates at a surplus.

I suggest you have a read then of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (2014)

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/St...cs/Browse/Economy/GERS/GERS2014xls

It's the figures published by the very same government that Alex Salmond is the First Minister of and quite clearly indicates public spending in Scotland is £65.2bn yet government revenue (and yes, that is with a geographical share of North Sea oil revenue, so the best case scenario) is £53.1bn.

Where does the extra £12.1bn spent in Scotland come from? I suggest the answer lies somewhere in this graphic produces by the ONS:



Scotland does not run a surplus, and does not subsidise the rest of the UK.

Therein lies the cornerstone of the Yes campaign - keep repeating the same misinformation and sound bites over and over until people start to believe it.

An independent Scotland - just to retain the status quo of public spending - will need to raise taxes, lower public spending, or probably both. Yet Mr Salmond and the Yes campaign would have you believe that in an independent Scotland taxes will be lower and public spending will be higher.

Salmond is taking you all for mugs, as was evidently shown by the Scottish NHS whistleblower who highlighted the £400m black hole in iScotland's healthcare budget. Ironic given Salmond's recent assertions that the only way to save the Scottish NHS is to vote for independence.
 
wingman
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:51 am

To me a Yes vote would not only mean the end of the UK but possibly the end of the EU. It would likely lead to Catalunya's secession from Spain, the Basques following suit, then Belgium, perhaps northern Italy? Where would it end? Is there truly any country we know of that doesn't contain the same seeds driving this referendum? Seeing the level of animosity and nastiness in this Scotland vote it doesn't seem far fetched to think we'd be witnessing the beginning of the end for the entire European Union.
 
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Asturias
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:52 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 17):
I hope and believe the Scots will vote No today. Over 300 years together is an achievement that shouldn't just be discarded at whim. The UK is a success story that many people in the world look towards admiringly.

Like the "no" campaign slogan "better together", your advice sounds more like the logic used by members of a broken marriage.

Quoting Rara (Reply 20):
Yes, Spain is uneasy towards re-admitting them

Err no. Where the heck is this stupid rumor coming from? Spain would welcome Scotland with open arms into the EU.

Quoting wingman (Reply 26):
It would likely lead to Catalunya's secession from Spain

Also this idea. Where the heck is this silly notion coming from?

Let me tell you something about Cataluña, first hand facts here: No matter the result of today's Scottish referendum, the resolve of Catalans will be the same. Their situation will be the same.

It literally does not matter to them what the result will be. They will gain no advantage in their quest for independence in case of a "yes" win in Scotland and they will lose absolutely no advantage in case of a "no" win.

[Edited 2014-09-18 04:57:16]
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garpd
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:58 am

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 22):
No they haven't. There has been no official statement from anyone, just a few opinions from a couple of people. These range from generic responses such as "new states have to apply", to "entry could be agreed within a few months"

When the European commission president or European Council president say something, it's not just " statement from anyone".

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad3dd392-9...9f-00144feab7de.html#axzz3DfNTGXZW

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f399df8-3...fc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3DfNTGXZW

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...x-Salmonds-independence-plans.html

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 22):

I have never once heard Westminster say they would block Scottish entry. Cameron has publicly stated that he would support Scottish entry to the EU in the event of independence.

Yup, I'll hand you that one. The article I picked that up from and bookmarked no longer exists.
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einsteinboricua
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:14 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 20):
Yes, Spain is uneasy towards re-admitting them, but in the end they won't be able to block it.

Why not? It would actually set a precedent. The Basque region could opt to have a referendum just like Scotland did.

Quoting Asturias (Reply 27):
Spain would welcome Scotland with open arms into the EU.

Is that why when Kosovo declared independence Spain was among the first countries to recognize it? Oh wait...
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Braybuddy
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:52 pm

Quoting a320fan (Reply 19):
One question is with Scotland been allowed to hold this referendum would this spark a desire in Northern Ireland to do the same and would they want to stay, be Independent or join the Republic?

There would be strong opposition from Unionists for a referendum, but nationalists have been pushing for a "border poll" for years now. I don't expect one for the foreseeable future. It's an interesting question though: if there were a poll, it would most likely have two options, either to remain in the UK or reunite with the Republic, although Unionists would prefer independence over Irish unity. If that third option were on the ballot paper it would only attract a minority of votes. The thing about a "border poll" is who would vote on it? Would it be just the Northern Ireland electorate, or would the republic have a say. After all, if they want to re-join with the Republic, people in the Republic would want a say too. If there is a Yes vote in Scotland, expect a lot of noise from Nationalists, but I can't see anything changing.
 
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:54 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 17):
How will the process go today? Until when are voting booths open, and when will results come in?

The polling stations are open until 2200 hrs with the result expected to be declared around 0600-0700 hrs tomorrow (pending any re-counts).

I declare now that I am not of Scottish descent nor do I wish to express an opinion about Independence for Scotland. I am more worried about the potential for the Union to be broken up in the short term only for Scotland to want to re-join the Union in a couple of years time.

Should Scotland decide to break away from the Union I can see both Wales and Northern Ireland following the same route.
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Asturias
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:54 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 29):
Is that why when Kosovo declared independence Spain was among the first countries to recognize it? Oh wait...

No, because Kosovo declared unilaterally and illegally independence. They have no right to be accepted by the international community and Spain is just one of a few civilized countries that doesn't apply a double standard in that case.

Besides this isn't really an academic question, just a question of anglosphere ignorance of all things Spain (apparently an incurable disease)

Just check the words of José García-Margallo, our minister of foreign affairs on this issue. He confirmed both that there was no comparison between potential Scottish independence and anything happening in Spain and that there would be no obstacle to admit Scotland into the EU, were that the wish of an independent Scotland.

Actually comparing Kosovo and independent Scotland is so loony I kind of regret spending time to address it.. ach too late now.
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Kiwirob
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:58 pm

Quoting dc10bhx (Reply 31):
Should Scotland decide to break away from the Union I can see both Wales and Northern Ireland following the same route.

I don't see that at all. There have been a few discussions about Welsh independance during this referendun, to me it appears that the Welsh would like a bit more control, like what Scotland has now, but they have little to no desire for full independence.
 
GDB
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:17 pm

I fear the worst here.
Sadly, I think the momentum is with the SNP.
Even though just a month ago they were trailing 11 points behind.

After losing the first debate, Salmond reverted to type, all personal attacks, red herrings etc.
One of which was to claim that 'No' meant NHS privatisation.
Even though since it's inception, the NHS in Scotland has been devolved, the only person who could do this would be Salmond.
But he was going after the Scottish Labour vote and it might well have worked.

Then again, Cameron has really screwed up too.
Why allow 16-17 years olds - unlike any other election?
Why allow the SNP to frame the question - 'Do you want to separate from the UK' sounds less enticing.
Why not hold it the same day as the 2015 General Election - the SNP has made much of the very unpopular Coalition, doing this would have lessened that effect.
Why allow Scots born there but living elsewhere in the UK to be excluded?

It was right to point out the gaping holes in the SNP's position, maybe love bomb Scotland first then done that - not the other way around and in a panic.

I wish for the best but fear the worst and it will be messy if the Yes vote wins.

Salmond is a lot like Nigel Farage of UKIP, both tell us that all our problems are the fault of 'them', with Salmond it's England, with Farage it's the EU.
But Westminster has done a lot to make these ideas far more popular in recent years.

It will be appalling if a stable over 300 year old entity goes because some who are obsessed with Nationalism convince enough people that one vote will cure all.

They will end up with the Euro too, whatever Salmond says.
(Odd form of Independence to want to keep the £ - of course a political fix after bigging up the Euro as they did for years is not so appealing now.)

[Edited 2014-09-18 06:56:13]
 
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par13del
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:32 pm

My thought, Scotland has a very bright future ahead of them, based on all the financial experts world wide who tout the massive losses that the new nation would face, the failure of the pound, the inability to defend the new nation, the false claims of the oil reserves, the number of jobs that will be lost, the border post that must be erected, the shutting out from the EU and its other entities, the billions that the UK government will now devote for a NO vote, how can any right thinking Scot in the face of all the negative items and the wonderful promise of maintaining the status quo go to the polls and vote YES?

The mind boggles, but I expect an overwhelming YES vote, fear is a powerful incentive.

Now if the vote is YES and the EU has anything to do with it, I expect re-vote after a re-education campaign  
 
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OA260
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:55 pm

Quoting garpd (Reply 6):
There is a very real threat things could turn very violent on the announcement of the voting results. Pubs being allowed to remain open all Thursday night won't help that! Police Scotland will be doubling their numbers on patrol for this evening and all of Friday, in case the proverbial should hit the fan.

This whole thing is nonsense and is only serving to cause animosity and hatred toward one another.
Families have been split, friendships ruined.

It is a sad day for the UK, regardless of the outcome.

You hit the nail on the head. Forget about who is voting Yes and who is voting No. The damage being done within Scotland is far worse. Whatever the outcome it will change things forever anyway. With reports of intimidation on both sides and burning signs down and peoples windows being smashed I can certainly understand why security forces have a plan to put into action if all hell breaks loose. We have seen what a 50/50 split has done in Northern Ireland and how serious civil unrest can escalate in minutes many times over far more trivial issues.

Many in Northern Ireland are watching eagerly too as this has implications over here.

Personally I do not really care either way to be honest if it is Yes or No. It is their right to choose if they want to leave but if they do there is no going back and they are on their own so they should think carefully.

I think like a few of my Scottish friends who do support leaving at the ballot they will take a deep think about their future and their pensions etc... and may at the last minute grudgingly change to No. Thats just the vibe I get from conversations with them.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:05 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 36):
Many in Northern Ireland are watching eagerly too as this has implications over here.

A yes vote might also affect Spain in regards to Catalonia and Basque country,

[Edited 2014-09-18 07:06:08]
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oly720man
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:14 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 34):
I wish for the best but fear the worst and it will be messy if the Yes vote wins.

It has the potential to be messy either way. What was once a pipe-dream became tangible and if it happens there will inevitably be some elements who will see this as a chance to express their freedom, perhaps by suggesting that the "foreigners" leave. If the vote is no, the same, or other elements will have a lot of frustration and resentment that their dream was smashed.
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GDB
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:24 pm

Quoting oly720man (Reply 38):
It has the potential to be messy either way. What was once a pipe-dream became tangible and if it happens there will inevitably be some elements who will see this as a chance to express their freedom, perhaps by suggesting that the "foreigners" leave. If the vote is no, the same, or other elements will have a lot of frustration and resentment that their dream was smashed.

True, though I was thinking more in terms of economics.
By effectively still having the Bank Of England, Salmond's Scotland has given London huge leverage in all the talks in what, as JK Rowling put it, will be the difficult microsurgery to untangle 300 years of being together.

I am not a fan of our PM, however he is right on this;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-neVSgeEe0w

[Edited 2014-09-18 07:27:47]

[Edited 2014-09-18 07:33:58]

[Edited 2014-09-18 07:40:38]
 
oly720man
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 39):
True, though I was thinking more in terms of economics.

Not my field by any stretch.

My feelings about all that's gone on already are that if it was a law case, both sides would be done for perjury, but anyway. It would be nice, and helpful, if there were some nailed to the ground certainties about what the facts are and consequences would be, but with both sides having opposed agendas, opinions and experts, and calling each other's output scaremongering or fantasy it's impossible (for me) to form any judgement.

But politics and high finance are activities for dark smoky rooms (or Mediterranean yachts) and realpolitik/dodgy deals, so what's for public consumption is only to get the votes and the real work happens afterwards.
wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
 
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alberchico
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:06 pm

Well at this point the final polls put the NO vote winning at 53%.
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Kiwirob
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:20 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 34):
But Westminster has done a lot to make these ideas far more popular in recent years.
Quoting GDB (Reply 39):
By effectively still having the Bank Of England

They might use the pound but the B.o.E will not be the lender of last resort, plus with all the banks saying they will up and leave, Scotland will be in a right pickle.
 
slider
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:27 pm

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 8):
london centric

This is a legit grievance, I think, outside looking in. It's an emotional argument stoked by this Salmond cat, who preys upon that emotion. But they're going about it all wrong, IMHO.

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 22):
There are just as many highly educated people that have studied the facts and figures and came out in favour of independence as against it.

I can't imagine, other than foolish misplaced pride, how a highly educated person would be in favor of breaking free.

Quoting GDB (Reply 34):
Why allow Scots born there but living elsewhere in the UK to be excluded?

I recall this topic in another thread and remain flabbergasted by it. Not allowing absentee nationals to vote is bullshit!


Funny thing is, for all the yammering about independence, a winning vote would be cruelly ironic because--I think--in the long term, it would result in MORE dependency upon the UK in every aspect.
 
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Aesma
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:29 pm

Quoting garpd (Reply 14):
That's not at issue, Aesma. You've entirely missed the point. Please educate yourself and the real issues.

Anyhow, argumentation is academic now. The people will vote as they see fit today.

I was not talking about the "real issues" I was responding to an argument used in the opening post.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 29):
Why not? It would actually set a precedent.

Yes it would, but I don't see the EU retaliating in any way, so admission or "readmission" would be a formality, and Spain wouldn't be able to block it.
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:36 pm

Quoting Doona (Reply 3):

Without getting into this debate, I do find it ironic that the three posts so far, all of which are varying degrees of critical of Scottish independence from Britain, come from an American, an Australian and a New Zealander.

Well, this American is actually genuinely curious. I don't have a dog in this fight (I can't imagine that Scottish independence would make very much difference in my day-to-day life). But my analysis of the situation is that it's a completely ridiculous idea. That said, I'm curious to hear from people who this will actually effect. I'm keen to learn.

That's why I started this thread. To learn. And I am learning an awful lot.
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Rara
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:53 pm

Quoting Asturias (Reply 27):
Quoting Rara (Reply 20):
Yes, Spain is uneasy towards re-admitting them

Err no. Where the heck is this stupid rumor coming from? Spain would welcome Scotland with open arms into the EU.

Don't you read the news?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ter-gives-EU-warning-to-Scots.html
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
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nighthawk
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:57 pm

Quoting Slider (Reply 43):
I can't imagine, other than foolish misplaced pride, how a highly educated person would be in favor of breaking free.

Then doesn't that suggest that your interpretation of things may be slightly amiss? One or two supporting it, maybe, but there are far more than that.

Martin Gilbert, Chief Executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, one of the UKs largest property investment companies has come out backing Independence recently:


Mr Gilbert, its founder, said he had already voted by post but declined to say which way. "I think an independent Scotland would be a big success, but it is a secret ballot and I will abide by that," he said.

Mr Gilbert said Scotland was among the 20 wealthiest countries in the world, adding: "Most sensible people now accept that Scotland would be prosperous with either outcome in the current constitutional debate."


Also note that the No campaign has always stayed away from debating the economics of it, as by their own admission it is an argument they would lose.


“Supporters of independence will always cite examples of small, independent and thriving economies, such as Finland, Switzerland and Norway. It would be wrong to suggest that Scotland could not be another such successful, independent country” - David Cameron


So perhaps the economy is not as doomed as many seem to think in the event of a yes vote.
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:00 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 44):
Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 29):Why not? It would actually set a precedent.
Yes it would, but I don't see the EU retaliating in any way, so admission or "readmission" would be a formality, and Spain wouldn't be able to block it.

The EU as a whole doesn't have to retaliate. Individual members, however, may place roadblocks. And here's the thing: is the EU willing to have its member states keep dividing themselves? Scotland, then the Flemish community, the Basque community in Spain and France, Transnistria in Romania...

Quoting Asturias (Reply 32):
No, because Kosovo declared unilaterally and illegally independence.

The ICJ differs on what you call illegal.

Quoting Asturias (Reply 32):
Actually comparing Kosovo and independent Scotland is so loony I kind of regret spending time to address it.. ach too late now.

It's actually not loony. Why should Scots be allowed to have their own country but not the Kosovars? It's still the same issue: a country is split because a segment wishes to loosen ties with it.

So if the issue is unilateral secession, can I assume that you support Crimea and eastern Ukraine splitting from Kiev because these regions held referendums? If the Basque country held a referendum (sanctioned or not by Madrid), would you support their secession?

The problem this brings up is that you can't be for one community's independence and against another. I can understand the plight of some communities to want to free themselves from central government control, but unless you're willing to recognize all of them equally, the best thing to do is not encourage it.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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DocLightning
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RE: On Scottish Independence

Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:01 pm

Quoting alberchico (Reply 41):
Well at this point the final polls put the NO vote winning at 53%.

It's just about 5PM in Scotland right now. When do the polls close and when do we get an answer?
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