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einsteinboricua
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Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:45 pm

So with Mary Landrieu's loss on Saturday, Republicans will hold all statewide offices and legislative chambers in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Gerogia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Virginia and Florida are also under some Republican influence, but Virginia has turned more purple (if not slightly more blue) and Florida's demographics have prevented the state from becoming even redder than it is.

So LBJ's prediction on the South leaving the Democratic Party is all but done. Begs the question: will the South be red forever or is this just a generation thing until the original Dixiecrats die? Let's face it, Millennials (even conservative ones) have been shown to go against the positions of the GOP. Is it possible that in a few decades the South might have different shades of purple?
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pu
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:26 pm

If you merely tell me where you live I can guess how you vote correctly more than half the time. This points to the probability that issues are not so important in election outcomes but personal factors of the voters such as where and how they live. I assert population density is one critical factor in deciding Left v. Right political outlook.

Some main points about how this relates to elections

1. Democrats are the party of cities and Republicans are the party of rural America. Even cities in red states are blue. Dallas is blue, Houston is blue, Atlanta is blue. Suburbs are in some cases battlegrounds, however, only a few suburbs are relevant since:

2. There are really only about 10 states which decide every election because the other states are so reliably red or blue that they just don't matter to the calculus of winning elections.

My personal thinking is that as people live closer together (as in Europe), or in US cities, the more to the Left they become. The more space between you and your neighbor, the more to the Right your politics are. When you live in NY, there is no thinking about government unless you're thinking simultaneously about 10 million people....in Nebraska government seems more like something that should serve the needs of the individual and not the group.

As or where the South urbanizes, it moves Blue.
.....Because of Atlanta, Georgia will soon be in play once again for the Democrats to reliably win, and within a decade or so Texas will be available for the Democrats as well due to the growth of cities. Alabama, Kentucky, West Virginia etc will stay Red due to the lack of dominating mega-big cities.



Pu
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:29 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Thread starter):


So with Mary Landrieu's loss on Saturday, Republicans will hold all statewide offices and legislative chambers in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Gerogia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Point of order, but Republicans do not hold *all* statewide offices in NC (not being a resident of the other states you list, I can't speak for them) but offhand the following posts, which are statewide offices, are held by Dems: Attorney General, Secretary of State, Commissioner of Insurance, Superintendent of Public Instruction, State Treasurer, and State Auditor. In addition, the NC Supreme Court and the NC Court of Appeals are also statewide offices but judicial elections in NC are nominally nonpartisan, so it's possible that some of the judges sitting on those two benches may also be Democrats.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:58 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Thread starter):
Begs the question: will the South be red forever or is this just a generation thing until the original Dixiecrats die?

Most of the voters of the 1950s & 1960s aren't even alive today. The few that are are not large enough of a group to make much of a difference.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Thread starter):
Let's face it, Millennials (even conservative ones) have been shown to go against the positions of the GOP.

Let's face it, Democrats don't have a lock on all the Millennials and there are positions of the Democratic party that Millennials don't agree with or won't agree with once they get a real job.



The South will certainly stay red but will always have small liberal pockets such as Atlanta, New Orleans, Asheville, NC, Charlotte and Memphis.
The Republican parties demographics are changing. The state of South Carolina elected Tim Scott - the South's first Black American US Senator (the previous Black Republican Senators during Reconstruction served at a time when Senators were appointed). South Carolina also re-elected an Indian American woman - Nikki Hailey.
Bobby Jindal - an Indian American governor of Louisiana.
I know many Blacks in the South including my relatives in Mississippi an Tennessee. I was pleasantly surprised to hear of other Blacks voting Republican in last month's election. Some Blacks that are disappointed with the Democrats just stayed home on election day when they're fed up with Obama an the Democrats. Most still haven't warmed up to the Republicans yet but there is a trend towards the GOP and it isn't just older White voters as the media want's you to believe.
The only way for the South to turn blue again would be to populate the South with illegals an give them welfare.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:48 pm

Quoting pu (Reply 1):
My personal thinking is that as people live closer together (as in Europe), or in US cities, the more to the Left they become. The more space between you and your neighbor, the more to the Right your politics are. When you live in NY, there is no thinking about government unless you're thinking simultaneously about 10 million people....in Nebraska government seems more like something that should serve the needs of the individual and not the group.

I agree, but to a point. I think it's mostly a social issue, not an economic one, and the needs of individuals are still considerd by liberal voters. Cities tend to be more liberal because you only naturally learn to deal with the person next to you not being identical, and the denser an area the less likely it is you'll have people who think identically. If you live more spread out it's much easier to isolate and avoid those you may not have ever interacted with, and thus may not like, and the areas tend to be more conservative. At the moment the Republican party has the social conservative voters.


Texas, George, and North Carolina are all very close to being purple states. This election is way overblown in terms of Democrat vs. Republican. This election, like most midterms, especially in a president's second term, is about the irrational whims of the American voter, and at the moment that whim is against the established face of President Obama. They're bored.

[Edited 2014-12-08 07:51:59]
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:05 pm

Quoting garnetpalmetto (Reply 2):
but Republicans do not hold *all* statewide offices in NC

Well, clarification:

statewide office = governor, lieutenant governor, AG, and state's 2 senators.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 3):
Most of the voters of the 1950s & 1960s aren't even alive today.

It's not the voters who matter; it's also the candidates. How many of the people currently in charge of Southern states were once Democrats? Nathan Deal was a Democrat; Richard Shelby was a Democrat, and like them I'm guessing there are still lots of people who used to vote Democrat and now vote Republican.

Quoting luckyone (Reply 4):
Texas, George, and North Carolina are all very close to being purple states.

I'd be interested in seeing North Carolina in 2016 and confirmed if it's truly a purple state.

This simulation shows it's not as simple as it seems.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:20 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 5):
It's not the voters who matter; it's also the candidates.

  
How do you think the candidates win?

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 5):
How many of the people currently in charge of Southern states were once Democrats? Nathan Deal was a Democrat; Richard Shelby was a Democrat, and like them I'm guessing there are still lots of people who used to vote Democrat and now vote Republican.

None of those guys were office holders in the 1950s & 60s. They were too young.
To be fair, Charlie Crist of Florida used to be a Republican governor an switched to be an independent and then switched to the Democratic party.
Jim Webb used to be a Republican but wasn't an office holder until he switch to Democrat.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:25 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 5):
I'd be interested in seeing North Carolina in 2016 and confirmed if it's truly a purple state.

This simulation shows it's not as simple as it seems.

That simulation is rather poor. Much of the Purple comes from the fact that NC can go either way in a general election based on turnout. There is a good chance that NC votes for a democratic Governor, president and Senate Candidate in 2016. However a lot will depend on local and national politics.

The GOP has been kind of saved from itself by the recent judicial rulings over Gay marriage, and abortion restrictions. While these moves anger the social conservatives, it makes the GOP a more comfortable home for the fiscal conservatives.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:41 pm

Quoting pu (Reply 1):
2. There are really only about 10 states which decide every election because the other states are so reliably red or blue that they just don't matter to the calculus of winning elections.

Which presents a very good argument for eliminating the Electoral College and electing the President and Vice President based on the actual vote of the people.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 3):
The only way for the South to turn blue again would be to populate the South with illegals an give them welfare.

That really won't help as there are too many wealthy WASPs in a panic who are ensuring that votes of color are diminished, by extreme gerrymandering and enacting as much voter obstructions as possible. All the influx of illegals will lead to will be lower prices on some basics, like laws care and laundry. Makes it a hard choice for those panicking wealthy WASPs.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 3):
Some Blacks that are disappointed with the Democrats just stayed home on election day when they're fed up with Obama an the Democrats.

Which basically delivered votes to the Republicans. Now when the GOP screws with their services (like education and road maintenance) they really can't blame anyone but themselves. That's a shame because African Americans can deliver a lot of political power if they go vote in force - even in off years.
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 6:52 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 5):


statewide office = governor, lieutenant governor, AG, and state's 2 senators.

Not the case. A statewide office is any elected office for which all registered voters in a state may cast a vote. Thus what constitutes a statewide office varies from state to state. In SC, for instance, the adjutant general of the SC National Guard is a statewide office. In your list, not every state elects their attorney general (Alaska, Hawaii, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Wyoming's are appointed by their governors, Maine's is elected by its legislature, and Tennessee's by their state supreme court).
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:00 pm

Quoting pu (Reply 1):

2. There are really only about 10 states which decide every election because the other states are so reliably red or blue that they just don't matter to the calculus of winning elections.

  

There's also about 4 or 5 states that always decide who the rest of us can vote for, which is even more bunk. Why the hell should Iowa and New Hampshire ALWAYS be able to dictate such?

Quoting Superfly (Reply 3):
The only way for the South to turn blue again would be to populate the South with illegals an give them welfare.

Since when do illegals care about that? Most of them work harder in a week, than most Americans do in a month.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:07 pm

As voting Democrat i can envision a resurgence of the GOP.

As social issues are increasingly no longer in the table (Obamacare, Immigration, gay marriage) many Democratic voters will look for "new" issues. The GOP has the opportunity to define and create these issues.

It would be foolish for the GOP to keep social issues on the front burner if they want gains, I would throw them into the "lost issues" pile and move on,.

But then again, it is the party of Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann - so i guess anything is possible.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:02 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 8):
eliminating the Electoral College and electing the President and Vice President based on the actual vote of the people.


I couldn't agree more. For that matter, the Senate should not give such a dramatic super-vote to people who live in rural states (Republican states). California has the same power in the Senate as Wyoming's 500k residents. Ridiculous!

Save the lectures on the constitution. It's wrong. It has been changed before. It can be changed again. Gerrymandering is another huge problem, especially in Texas. Their districts are crazy looking! Use the constitution to fix it.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 10):
There's also about 4 or 5 states that always decide who the rest of us can vote for, which is even more bunk. Why the hell should Iowa and New Hampshire ALWAYS be able to dictate such?

I couldn't agree more. The electoral college system and primary system is wasteful and too long. I think by law the whole process should be reduced to about 90 days for a country America's size. For the next 2 years instead of governing everyone will talk of electing.

Quoting mt99 (Reply 11):
As voting Democrat i can envision a resurgence of the GOP.

As social issues are increasingly no longer in the table (Obamacare, Immigration, gay marriage) many Democratic voters will look for "new" issues. The GOP has the opportunity to define and create these issues.

It would be foolish for the GOP to keep social issues on the front burner if they want gains, I would throw them into the "lost issues" pile and move on,.

Great points.

IMO if the Republicans lose the sexuality issues/social issues/warmongering and focus only on conservative finances, less regulation, a pro-business environment, and the possibility of lower or simpler taxes....they win.



Pu
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:10 pm

Quoting garnetpalmetto (Reply 9):
Not the case.

In this case, let's limit it to those positions.

Quoting garnetpalmetto (Reply 9):
In your list, not every state elects their attorney general (Alaska, Hawaii, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Wyoming's are appointed by their governors, Maine's is elected by its legislature, and Tennessee's by their state supreme court).

None of these states is in the South, except Tennessee.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:20 am

Quoting mt99 (Reply 11):
As social issues are increasingly no longer in the table (Obamacare, Immigration, gay marriage) many Democratic voters will look for "new" issues. The GOP has the opportunity to define and create these issues.

There is still plenty of work to do. ObamaCare is a start, but doesn't do enough to end Cost Shifting - the core reason why we have the most expensive system in the world without delivering the best outcomes in the world (except one). {Plenty of improvemens there, but conervatives are too well paid to lift a finger.

Immigration will continue to be an issue. As WASPs continue to shrink as a percentage of the total population they will work harder and harder to keep people of color out of the voting booth, or suck them into contortions of House Districts to minimize their voting power. There will also be a lot of wealth spent on politicians (thanks to CItizens United) and that is going to impact out future big time.

The only area where I can see no chance of falling backwards is on gay marriage and gays serving in the military.

Quoting pu (Reply 13):
Their districts are crazy looking! Use the constitution to fix it.

No chance of a Constitutional Amendment to change that, or the secret money CItizens United brings in. Too much money to be made and your average citizen has zero hope of being well served by politicians, especially the radicalized ones.

Quoting pu (Reply 13):
IMO if the Republicans lose the sexuality issues/social issues/warmongering and focus only on conservative finances, less regulation, a pro-business environment, and the possibility of lower or simpler taxes....they win.

Big problems there. The hard right wants to slash Social Security and Medicare to bits and move that money to their friends in the private sector. Other programs, from Medicaid to student loans to free meals at school for poor kids will be on the chopping block. The GOP cannot deliver more money to the wealthy without taking it away in all sorts of various forms from middle America and the poor. Citizens United makes that a lot easier, but after contributing the billions to politicians the wealthy (individuals and corporations) will want a solid return on their investments.
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:48 am

As somebody with family in rural and urban Mississippi who has spent a lot of time there while growing up, I'm confident the south will stay red. Just as I am confident crazy places like the left coast, NYC, Boston, etc will stay blue. That's fine by me. The liberals can stay in their areas, and conservative traditionalists can stay in theirs! Then everybody's happy and doesn't have to be offended by the opposition.

Thank God some places have the stones to resist "progression" into a liberal, anything goes free for all. It's nice to be able to go somewhere people still hold traditional American values and the country still resembles America I grew up in instead of Western Europe.. Why does it need to change?

Common "celebrate" diversity!

Quoting einsteinboricua (Thread starter):

So LBJ's prediction on the South leaving the Democratic Party is all but done. Begs the question: will the South be red forever or is this just a generation thing until the original Dixiecrats die? Let's face it, Millennials (even conservative ones) have been shown to go against the positions of the GOP. Is it possible that in a few decades the South might have different shades of purple?

People who don't go to the deep south don't understand it. All they know is what they see and hear on TV. It's not just old people dying off being replaced by the young liberal crowd. In my experience, most are conservative. Young and old. If you"re white, there's a good chance you're brought up strict southern Baptist from the time you're born. You address elders as Sir and M'am and traditional American values are instilled on you early on.

Growing up in New England, I've learned to expect most people to be libs. Even middle aged people who should know better. Down south it's the exact opposite. Rich/poor, black/white, secular/religious....In the northeast, 75% are libs. Down south, exact opposite.

Don't even get me started on people's tendency to think it's all rednecks and white supremacists lynching people down there. For one thing, the racism goes both ways. Blacks don't like the whites either and the two don't intermix socially much outside of work. They self segregate. Furthermore, I meet more rednecks and uneducated poor here in backwoods Maine than I ever have in the Mississippi swamps.

Have three cousins I hunt and fish with down south. To the ignorant, if you saw them on a weekend they'd be viewed as country bumpkin rednecks that "talk funny" They like muddling, hunting, fishing, God, shooting guns and feral dogs, and peeing in the yard. Yet, all three are doctors of one kind or another. One's even a specialty surgeon in Jackson. Common misconception most rural people are undereducated and poor. Especially when it comes to rural southerners.
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:29 am

The South was historically blue. Remember, JFK won Texas because he had LBJ is VP, who was governor of a blue Texas.

I learned in school the reason why the South flip-flopped to red; I want to say it had to do with the GOP making an unwritten, unspoken deal with minorities. This was either during or shortly after the Civil Rights movement. I was only half-awake at best in that class so I'm only like 10-20% solid on this.  
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:49 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Thread starter):
will the South be red forever or is this just a generation thing until the original Dixiecrats die?

I think they will be farther and farther to the right because they are told it is someone else up north or in California that is a welfare queen and it is someone up north or in California who is sucking them dry and denying them life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, etc.

Until then, the ultra wealthy, ultra right wing will stop at nothing to make sure this is a one party nation and if anyone else has any different opinion, those anti-America freedom haters can just stick it where the sun don't shine.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:47 am

Quoting mt99 (Reply 11):

As social issues are increasingly no longer in the table (Obamacare, Immigration, gay marriage)

Huh??????????? Where the heck do you get that idea?

The GOP Congress is about to spend the next 2yrs going nuts over Obamacare all over again.

Hispanics turned out the lowest in any of the 6 Obama-era elections, due to Dems' refusal to address the Immigration issue legislatively, in spite of the GOP.

And they've already lost on Gay marriage-- anyone with eyes can see that that's inevitable for the USA, if for no reason than the younger generations (both leftwing AND rightwing) who will eventually be in power, are just plain not bothered by it. So if the SCOTUS doesn't finally get off its ass and bring the 6th Circuit (et al) in line, the people no doubt EVENTUALLY will....... still doesn't stop the GOP from using it as a rallying cry though. Check out the "Values Voters" and CPAC, etc. Still very much using it as a wedge issue to raise money off of.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:50 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 23):
Quoting BN747 (Reply 12):
Oh, yeah...that'll make them into conservative..right on the spot!


Making things up again. I just had to correct the OP's claim that Millennials are somehow going to be in lock step with the Democratic party forever.

You're correcting something that doesn't need to be corrected. You're putting words in my mouth. What I meant was that conservative Millennials are sometimes against the current position the GOP holds. I have not insisted they'll be lock step with the Democrats definitely, but like you who are conservative and would vote Republican because the Democrat candidates no longer appeal to you, what's to stop GOP Millennials from doing the same?
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Superfly
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:24 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 25):
You're correcting something that doesn't need to be corrected.

Yes it did.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Thread starter):
Millennials (even conservative ones) have been shown to go against the positions of the GOP.

Hmmm.
The nation's youngest elected official is an 18 year old female that is hardcore conservative and in the right-wing of the GOP.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 25):
you who are conservative and would vote Republican because the Democrat candidates no longer appeal to you,

Wrong again. I'm not conservative. I'm libertarian in my beliefs. I haven't completely shut the door on the Democrats.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:00 am

I sure as hell hope not, it will be a dark days for Democracy if the country is so divided that one area of the country is so locked into one political view that it will follow only those of conservative or Liberal ideas forever. I seem to remember a great war fought over such iron bound ideologies. It was the Civil War as far as I remember. Be careful of what you wish for. You may get it. I see the seeds of this everyday on the news.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:29 am

I just had to do a major cleanse of this thread due to the language and personal attacks occurring. If the topic can not be discussed with respect for other posters and without using harsh language, it will be locked.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:08 am

Personally, I would like to see both the Republican and Democratic parties replaced by 3 or more parties to better represent voters as well as remove their historical baggage.
I also think in future years, changes in ethnic demographics, the downward shift in the economic status of many White persons, more balanced social attitudes on abortion, gay marriage, problems to our environment from Climate Change, and need for greater government subsides for health care and retirement, may mean a shift to the 'left' to meet those changes. What to me may happen is more of 'purple' mix including in some parts of the Southeastern USA.
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Sat Dec 27, 2014 2:30 am

[

Quoting seb146 (Reply 17):
The South was historically blue. Remember, JFK won Texas because he had LBJ is VP, who was governor of a blue Texas.

I learned in school the reason why the South flip-flopped to red; I want to say it had to do with the GOP making an unwritten, unspoken deal with minorities. This was either during or shortly after the Civil Rights movement. I was only half-awake at best in that class so I'm only like 10-20% solid on this.

The color thing has most young folks mixed up. Texas in the 1960s was a red state. The South was historically Blue as that was the color of the Republican party up to the 1990s when the broadcasters changed the colors to their current parties. Many of the Southern States were dominated by the Democrats until the 1980s. Traditionally, the blacks voted Republican as it was the party of Lincoln and the Democrats used their political positions to repress black rights. The Republicans made a deal with the devil in taking on Dixiecrats who fled the party after the Voting Rights Act of 1964 was signed into law by LBJ.

As for democracy, the US has evolved the definition. Remember that in our original democratic form, women, blacks and indians had no right to vote. The presidency has never been a direct election-in the earliest years, winner was president and the runner up was vice president. Senators were not elected by direct vote until after 1910-before then they were selected by the state legislature.

One other thing to remember is that while electors are allotted to one candidate or another, there is no legal requirement that they vote for that candidate. Rutherford B. Hayes was in such a tight election that he only won when John Marshall Harlan of Kentucky changed his vote.

As for amending the Constitution, it is possible. However, the probability of that occurring is relatively slim. Over 12,000 amendments have been proposed over the years and only 17 adopted. Most proposed amendments die after seven years if not ratified by the required 2/3rds of the states within that period. Ironically, the 27th Amendmend languished for over 200 years before being ratified by the required majority. It was proposed in 1789 but was not ratified until 1992.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Sat Dec 27, 2014 5:49 am

Quoting 57AZ (Reply 24):
the blacks voted Republican as it was the party of Lincoln and the Democrats used their political positions to repress black rights. The Republicans made a deal with the devil in taking on Dixiecrats who fled the party after the Voting Rights Act of 1964 was signed into law by LBJ.

I find it interesting that the current crop of right-wingers (I refuse to call them Republicans) scream and shout that they are the party of both Reagan and Lincoln while, at the same time, doing everything in their power to make sure that only angry White men vote. They are, at best, telling everyone they are alienated from the "real" America to, at worst, outright racists.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 20):
The nation's youngest elected official is an 18 year old female that is hardcore conservative and in the right-wing of the GOP.

And, when she starts reading and researching (we hope) she will moderate. She will probably stay Republican, but move left of the hard core conservatism, hopefully.
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Sat Dec 27, 2014 6:14 am

Will be interesting to see what happens to the marriage of corporations and Christians the next time there is a strong economic/demographic shakeup in the South. In the meantime that union seems strong.
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Sat Dec 27, 2014 7:59 am

I have a question.

What are "American traditional values"?
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Sat Dec 27, 2014 2:55 pm

Quoting rlwynn (Reply 27):
What are "American traditional values"?

They are whatever values a preacher-politician wants to use to tell a voting block they're special. At the moment that's white (protestant) Christian voters who for some reason feel persecuted because they aren't allowed to fully codify their beliefs--the First Amendment only applies TO them, not against them.

Quoting 57AZ (Reply 24):
The color thing has most young folks mixed up. Texas in the 1960s was a red state. The South was historically Blue as that was the color of the Republican party up to the 1990s when the broadcasters changed the colors to their current parties.

It's a bit hazier than that--each network had its own color-scheme until the 200 election, then they standardized. The South was historically solidly Democratic until about the Jimmy Carter era which using the old system would've still made the South red, not Blue as you've suggested. Even in the 90's many Southern states had long-time Democratic Senators and Representatives. But as the older Yellow Dog generation died out, the South became more Republican.
 
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seb146
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Sat Dec 27, 2014 5:55 pm

Quoting luckyone (Reply 28):
Even in the 90's many Southern states had long-time Democratic Senators and Representatives. But as the older Yellow Dog generation died out, the South became more Republican.


Part of that also has to do with the media. People only had one or two sources of information who said the exact same thing and didn't bother to fact check. Some of those voting, especially older White men, were not voting FOR someone but, rather, AGAINST an abstract idea.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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ssteve
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Sat Dec 27, 2014 9:56 pm

Quoting rlwynn (Reply 27):
What are "American traditional values"?

For what it's worth, "Small town values" is often a dog-whistle phrase defined by its inverse. Which is to say it means NOT "whatever characteristics you don't like about urban people."

Hardworking, independent, values family, children, community.

Urban americans, on the other hand, hate hard work and children.
 
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par13del
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Sat Dec 27, 2014 10:52 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 8):
That's a shame because African Americans can deliver a lot of political power if they go vote in force - even in off years.

Just as they are loosing steam in the economy and population share, the black vote is also loosing its importance in the political arena.
Even within the communities, there is no illusion that things are getting better.
 
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:03 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 8):
extreme gerrymandering and enacting as much voter obstructions as possible.

I would laugh if it wasn't se pathetic that Republicans chortled to the heavens that America overwhelmingly gave them a mandate when only 19% of eligible voters voted for the GOP in the mid-terms. But, as Lindsey Graham said:

“The demographics race we’re losing badly. We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.


Quoting mt99 (Reply 11):
But then again, it is the party of Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann - so i guess anything is possible.

The only hope is education.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 14):
Citizens United makes that a lot easier, but after contributing the billions to politicians the wealthy (individuals and corporations) will want a solid return on their investments.

They do get it. A study was done of legislation passed across the nation and overwhelmingly it was corporate or social conservative lobby backed.

Quoting WarRI1 (Reply 21):
I see the seeds of this everyday on the news.

People are not going to know what hit them in 10 to 15 years time. So many or blithely walking into the future believing it will be the same as the past.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
rabenschlag
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:29 am

Will the South be forever red? I'd say no. In Germany the South-East has been blue for ages (meaning religious-conservative), and the South-West recently became green (meaning eco-conservative).
 
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pu
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:15 pm

The fact that EVERY major city in America votes Democratic and that virtually EVERY county without a city bigger than 100 000 people votes Republican is something that speaks volumes as to the reason why people choose political parties. It also says a lot about America.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 25):
I find it interesting that the current crop of right-wingers (I refuse to call them Republicans) scream and shout that they are the party of both Reagan and Lincoln while, at the same time, doing everything in their power to make sure that only angry White men vote.

The same states that started the Civil War are the same states that kept blacks from voting for 100 years (poll taxes, literacy tests etc...) and are the same states that jumped on the ability to check IDs for voters after the Supreme Court case allowed it....and are the same states that have the lowest average incomes and worst healthcare in America ....and are the same states that refuse to join Obamacare....and are the same states likely to sue the President over immigration reform.....

/ / / / / / coincidence???? / / / / / /

Quoting planemaker (Reply 32):
The only hope is education.

I like education, but I actually disagree. Participation in the political process should be vastly easier and much more rewarding. Allow a US Congress to debate, collect fat salaries and fancy trips, work sporadically, etc.... if you like them that much, but allow the people to directly vote on legislation once submitted by their Congressmen. $5 tax credit each time you vote online.

The problem is engagement with the process, which I agree is partially a lack of education, but also a lack of easy engagement and lack of tangible incentives.



Pu
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:58 am

Quoting Pu (Reply 34):
but allow the people to directly vote on legislation once submitted by their Congressmen.

Thats a problem actually. While I admire Switzerland's model, the US voter is far more extremist than their Swiss counterparts. There's already a way Congress does that in a matter of speaking. Considering that the US is a federal republic, the people are represented by the states, so when an amendment is proposed, the states ratify it. But politicians today have become radicalized than they'll support some legislation because it came from their party and/or oppose it because it didn't.

I will agree, however, that engagement is needed. Another thing that's needed is to recognize that the political system is and shouldn't ever be solely black and white (blue and red in the US). A grey position should be encouraged. I'm a Democrat, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't support a GOP candidate if they appealed to me. That being said, they need an independent mind and while they should stay true to their original ideals, they should also be open to flexible positions, keeping in mind that while they belong to a party they represent not just 40-50% of their constituents but all of them.

This whole "I'll oppose you because you're from the other party" and "I'll support you because you're from my party" needs to end, without fear of backlash.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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pu
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:31 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 35):
the US voter is far more extremist than their Swiss counterparts.

I don't think so.
However, Americans have been told that so often that they believe it. They have been taught by the media-political complex that there is black and white differences and no room for compromise.

In fact, however, I, the Pu, could compose an immigration bill that 60% of Americans would agree with. It would have bits from Obama and bits from the Republicans. I could compose a budget that 60% of Americans could agree with, a defense policy supported by 60% and so forth.

BUT, I wouldn't get the same group of 60% on every issue = hence the 2 party system can only fail because they aim to appeal to the majority on every issue, and be directly opposite each other on every issue, but very few voters hold perfectly Republican or perfectly Democratic ideals.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 35):
But politicians today have become radicalized than they'll support some legislation because it came from their party and/or oppose it because it didn't.

It's not their party per se. It's their fear of losing elections. Their sole objective is not the greater good of the nation but winning the next election. But, yes, as it happens, gerrymandering has created solid red and blue electoral districts so on most issues they must follow the party line. But politicians actually have no allegiance to any political ideals, except the ideal of keeping their job.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 35):
I will agree, however, that engagement is needed.

Fine, great, we agree!
I say it must be BOTH easier and rewarding. More direct input is needed on every issue. I say internet voting on congressional legislation.

There is no doubt that a team of bureaucrats or even congressmen are still needed. Most of the public don't have the time or inclination to read every item in the US budget, study agriculture policy, understand the situation in Ukraine, form an opinion on immigration, etc. But once the congressmen have boiled it down to 2-4 alternatives in any policy = let the people decide.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 35):
Another thing that's needed is to recognize that the political system is and shouldn't ever be solely black and white (blue and red in the US). A grey position should be encouraged. I'm a Democrat, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't support a GOP candidate if they appealed to me.

You can not be grey because of the US system. Only 2 options will work without direct democracy or other serious changes. You're talking about the person who is a swing voter and votes for both Republican and Democrats, but the real problem is illustrated with the inability for minority viewpoints to hold office, even though they are views held by a substantial group of people, aka minority parties. Minority parties, 3rd parties are in practical terms impossible.

Let's say there exists a potential 3rd party, we'll call them something, just to pick a random name out of a hat, like, "The Tea Party", which appeals to maybe 20% of the population. They should have 20% of the seats in Congress.
........................................................................Yet because of the geographical and gerry-mandered way America elects congressmen, it might be that few to none Tea Party candidate ever hold office because they cant get a majority in any single district, (which is equivalent to saying they can't hold a majority in any mainstream party, since congressional districts are mostly just red or blue party strongholds).

The only way I see to overcome this built-in reliance on 2 parties and 2 parties only is some form of direct democracy, but I'm open to hearing other ideas!


Pu

[Edited 2014-12-30 17:37:25]
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:37 am

Quoting Pu (Reply 36):
Minority parties, 3rd parties are in practical terms impossible.

A third party is not needed. But just because I'm a Democrat doesn't mean I wouldn't support gun rights, just like if someone is a Republican they shouldn't be of the opinion that they MUST oppose healthcare reform. We see this in the most successful states that have implemented the ACA: AR and KY. The voters like the provisions: does that mean that they must oppose the law because a Democrat brought it forward? That's what I meant by grey area.

A two party system can exist and be successful as long as voters and politicians accept that some constituents will not support all your positions. Just like there are Republicans that support gay marriage, there are Democrats that support gun rights. Those are more purple politicians than the solely red/blue politicians.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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pu
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RE: Will The South Be Forever Red?

Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:45 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 37):
just like if someone is a Republican they shouldn't be of the opinion that they MUST oppose healthcare reform. We see this in the most successful states that have implemented the ACA: AR and KY

Yes since you brought it up, the healthcare fiasco in America perfectly illustrates the problem with the two party system.

Obamacare, as far as I can tell from 3rd party and government sources is becoming a moral and financial success. The backwards states that refuse to join - like Texas - are subsidising healthcare in the other states while leaving a million uninsured in their own state, plus keeping their own healthcare costs wildly too high and out of control...but the Republicans don't want this to be a success, they'd rather have the country's healthcare fail than see a success began by Democrats. But, it looks like Utah, Florida, Tennessee are on the verge of joining and the wall of partisanship stupidity is slowly crumbling.

....will an undeniable improvement in healthcare, if this is certain in 2016, cause Republicans to accept Obamacare, or will they continue to oppose it?

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 37):
A two party system can exist and be successful

Government shutdowns began in the 1990s and since then the two-party system has been dysfunctional and divisive so often the country is suffering badly. The failures of the last 15 years are IMO the result of hyper-partisanship = wars that solve nothing and no one wants to end; overpriced but underperforming healthcare; the great recession; immigration, etc... IMO all may have been solved with a viable 3rd way alternative.

So, just because 2 parties worked once or "can" work doesn't mean you should keep it. Most democracies have multiple parties.


Pu

[Edited 2014-12-30 20:47:07]

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