Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
cedarjet
Topic Author
Posts: 8899
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:03 am

One thing that is interesting about the MH17 tragedy is that there seemed to be no political fall out or even public criticism from Malaysia towards Russia. Did I miss something? If I didn't, presumably there must have been some serious tension behind the scenes. The disaster will have cost Malaysia billions in hardware, loss of business, passenger lives etc.

I remember when Ukraine (ironically) shot down a Russian airliner a couple of weeks after 9/11, a Tu-154 en route from Tel Aviv to Novosibirsk, and again, don't really remember a lot of strife between Russian and Ukraine or between Israel and Ukraine (since most of the passengers were Israeli citizens).

Obviously a lot of trouble over KE007 and IR655, but those were between enemy states, Russia (shot down Korean 747) and S Korea / USA, and between USA (shot down Homa A300 full of housewives going to DXB for shopping, awful circumstance) and Iran.

So anyone know what happened behind the scenes between Malaysia and Russia, and can add to the subject?
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
B777LRF
Posts: 2785
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 4:23 am

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:25 am

There's not a lot Malaysia can do, particularly if it's interested in keeping the fleet of Sukhoi and MIG fighters serviceable - which forms the backbone of it's aviation capabilities.

Let's not forget, however, that governments generally try handle serious business as far outside the scrutinizing eye of the public as possible; conducting negotiations via CNN is never a particularly good idea, neither is giving the IHT daily bulletins of proceedings. So it's very plausible a lot goes on behind the scenes that we, the general public that is, are not being told about.

Last, but not least, Malaysia may be quietly well chuffed with the sanctions hitting Russia, and find that they are indeed being 'punished' for their acts.
Signature. You just read one.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:27 am

Without getting into my opinion of who is responsible, the main problem is that Russian backed rebels* shot the plane down, not the Russians. So to what extent does that make Russia responsible? What should their reaction be? How much control/responsibility does Russia have over the rebels?

Those questions are unclear enough to lead to the situation they are in today. I don't think Russia will ever have to "be held responsible" for MH17

*there are people that think Ukraine or Russia themselves shot down MH17, but the majority of people (from what I've seen) seem to agree that a BUK operated by Russian backed Ukrainian rebels shot the aircraft down



As you can see, it's not cut and dry to enough people
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13322
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:27 am

Quoting cedarjet (Thread starter):
One thing that is interesting about the MH17 tragedy is that there seemed to be no political fall out or even public criticism from Malaysia towards Russia.

Delta has said it nicely.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 2):
Without getting into my opinion of who is responsible, the main problem is that Russian backed rebels* shot the plane down, not the Russians. So to what extent does that make Russia responsible? What should their reaction be? How much control/responsibility does Russia have over the rebels?
 
tailskid
Posts: 844
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:27 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:04 pm

Quoting Kiwirob (Reply 3):
Delta has said it nicely.

Delta merely offered his opinion on what MSM viewers may think.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 2):
but the majority of people (from what I've seen)

People who understand the complexity of operating something like a buk TELAR know that it had to have been operated by a trained crew, aka Russian crew. Informed people also know that the Russian 53rd air defense Brigade was right across the border and that this TELAR almost certainly was one of theirs. That would include Mr. Hishammuddin for sure.
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13322
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:14 pm

Blah blah blah is all you ever offer. Until the Dutch come back with the answers all you can offer is nothing.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14360
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:25 pm

Quoting tailskid (Reply 4):
People who understand the complexity of operating something like a buk TELAR

Ukraine has the Draft, there should be an ample supply conscripts that have been trained on it.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tu204
Posts: 2214
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:30 pm

Quoting Kiwirob (Reply 5):

I do not think we will ever get to the bottom of this. Or for at least 20+ years.

The Dutch will come back with a final text to the investigation that the "Aircraft disintegrated in flight due to high velocity projectiles that impacted the aircraft from the outside." or something like that.

I think it is unlikely that we will hear a final conclusion that will name without reasonable doubt that one party or the other is the one that fired the shot. The best they will probably get is to conclusively identify the missile that brought it down.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
tailskid
Posts: 844
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:27 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:32 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 6):
Ukraine has the Draft, there should be an ample supply conscripts that have been trained on it.

I doubt that. The type of people fighting against the Ukrainians were unlikely to ever have been selected for hi-tech jobs in the Ukrainian military, if they ever responded to a draft call at all. There is not a very large segment of the Ukrainian population among the "rebels."

The 53rd Brigade was right on scene, it's not hard to figure out where that TELAR came from.

Have you guys given up claiming that MH-17 was shot down by a Ukrainian fighter plane?
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2757
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:42 pm

Malaysia wouldn't have enough political strength to do anything meaningful anyway, but I echo what others are saying above: no one actually knows who shot MH17 down. Having said that, you'd look at either Ukraine or the Russian-backed rebels, so blaming Russia and having a political fallout with them would be unwise at best.
 
AIRWALK
Posts: 241
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 9:33 am

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:25 pm

Quoting tailskid (Reply 8):

Do you think that particular aircraft was targeted? Or a mistake by the operators?
I'm sure this thread will take off soon
 
tailskid
Posts: 844
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:27 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:26 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 9):
no one actually knows who shot MH17 down.

Speak for yourself. There's actually no great mystery about it. Unless you're trying to avoid the truth, there's plenty of evidence pointing at the 53rd Brigade.

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 9):
blaming Russia and having a political fallout with them would be unwise at best.

Either that, or ignoring Putin's aggression would be unwise at best.

I won't bore you with historic parallels of nations and even individual people - avoiding the truth.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2757
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:43 pm

Quoting tailskid (Reply 11):
Speak for yourself. There's actually no great mystery about it. Unless you're trying to avoid the truth, there's plenty of evidence pointing at the 53rd Brigade.

I can believe that, the shot down by fighter jet theories always seem to be full of obvious holes. But you can't be 100% sure, any evidence is likely to have some flaws in it. But some are more flawed than others.

Quoting tailskid (Reply 11):
Either that, or ignoring Putin's aggression would be unwise at best.

I won't bore you with historic parallels of nations and even individual people - avoiding the truth.

Since when has any politician ever been completely honest!  
 
tailskid
Posts: 844
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:27 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:18 am

Quoting AIRWALK (Reply 10):
Do you think that particular aircraft was targeted?

It's possible, it has been noted that Malaysia is in a particularly weak position to mount any accusations - protests: but I have no way of knowing.

I do think the TELAR was targeting an airliner though. The TELAR was located almost directly underneath three airways and it would have been obvious to the radar operator that the target he was tracking was at 500kts and over 30,000 feet. Airliners have distinctive flight paths that radar operators understand and can spot (high, fast unchanging flight path and when the return is examined is is that of a large aircraft.)

I also can't imagine any battery or battalion commander allowing this type of launcher to operate without the direction of its command module with the search radar. Most likely, the command module was just over the border, maybe 20 miles away - that's the way these systems are designed to be used.

In a wartime environment the TELARS are expendable, they will be the part of the system hit by anti-radiation missiles while the search radar continues to direct the other TELARS. So they are set up 20 or so miles apart.
 
solarflyer22
Posts: 1517
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 7:07 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:18 am

I noticed this as well and actually if it happened to my nation I'd go after Russia big time. While I am sure they received some money behind the scenes, I honestly would have gone after Russia at the UN and ICC and sent some weapons over to Ukraine. I'd want the head of guy who shot that missile. I mean they shot a huge plane out of the sky doing nothing out of the norm. The Russians on the other hand were doing something very much illegal and were they had no right to be especially without declaring a no fly zone.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14360
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Mon Jan 26, 2015 10:00 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 8):
I doubt that. The type of people fighting against the Ukrainians were unlikely to ever have been selected for hi-tech jobs in the Ukrainian military, if they ever responded to a draft call at all. There is not a very large segment of the Ukrainian population among the "rebels."

But there are Ukrainians among the "rebels". Many of them will have served, even if some way back when the USSR was real.

Quoting tailskid (Reply 8):

The 53rd Brigade was right on scene, it's not hard to figure out where that TELAR came from.

Yes, that is the likely explanation, but it is not the only one.

Quoting tailskid (Reply 8):
Have you guys given up claiming that MH-17 was shot down by a Ukrainian fighter plane?

Who is "you guys"? I for one did never ever call the Su-25 "theory" anything else than BS. I was also sure from day one that MH17 was shot down by the "rebels", since it was the explanation that made by far the most sense from the start.
I am merely pointing out that, however improbable, it is not impossible for the "rebels" to have operated the BUK system by themselves. Indeed i think that a barely qualified ex-conscript crew, that just remembered enough to get missiles off, would offer a good explanation for the target identification f**k up.
And there are a million steps of increasing Russian involvement from there to a 53rd Brigade Telar with a 53rd Brigade crew. And i think one of those will be the truth.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tailskid
Posts: 844
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:27 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:30 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 15):
a barely qualified ex-conscript crew, that just remembered enough to get missiles off,

But there's more to it than that. The "rebels did it" assumption rests on the assumption that the TELAR was taken from a depot where it had been in storage - as an active battery is mobile and would have withdrawn to a safer area. There was no rebel blitzkrieg in the east as far as I've heard.

Thus, there would have had to have been extensive maintenance and assembly to have taken place before such a Telar was operational. Spare parts would have been needed for sure.

Rebels overrunning a depot would have been more likely to have disassembled the missiles for the high explosives contained within.

I don't see any chance at all that this was done by rebels with captured equipment.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10691
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:00 pm

Tailskid

After reading your points in reply 13, I thought of this.

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19880703-0

Care to comment?.
 
tailskid
Posts: 844
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:27 pm

RE: Political Implications Of Shooting Down Airliner

Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:40 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 17):

What is there for me to say? I'm not in agreement with US policy in the ME and I'm not at all supportive of US gunboat policies against Iran.

I will point out that this was a accident resulting from one persons' poor judgement and had no impetus or direction from the US policymakers or military chain of command. I'm not sure I can say the same thing about Russia and MH-17.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Badstig, Baidu [Spider], Dutchy, Mortyman and 19 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos