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offloaded
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 07, 2015 1:51 pm

Why on earth Labour just wheeled Blair out is a mystery, and a degree of electoral self-harm I'd say. Tony Blair, among his delusions for grandeur, seems to be a bit confused about the EU:

'Above all, the European Economic Community takes away Britain's freedom to follow the sort of economic policies we need.'
Tony Blair, writing in his personal manifesto when standing for Parliament in Beaconsfield in 1982

'We'll negotiate a withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed jobs.'
Tony Blair, pledging his opposition to the EEC when standing for Parliament in Sedgefield in 1983

'On the day we remember the legend that St George slayed a dragon to protect England, some would argue that there is another dragon to be slayed: Europe.'
Tony Blair, in patriotic and vote winning mood on St George's Day 1997 in an interview with 'The Sun' newspaper

'I am a passionate pro-European. I always have been.'
Tony Blair, speaking to the EU Parliament in 2005


Meanwhile the "main" parties continue to brand UKIP as a party of nutters and fascists despite voters continuing to flock to them. It's very simple. UKIP are striking a chord with groups of voters from across the political spectrum... and the reason they're able to do this is due to the relentless lies, spin, failure, cronyism and corruption of the incumbents... basically "the Establishment" who have run Britain for the last 200 years.
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 07, 2015 1:57 pm

Quoting offloaded (Reply 50):
Meanwhile the "main" parties continue to brand UKIP as a party of nutters and fascists despite voters continuing to flock to them.

Are we really seeing voters flock to them, or is this just another media myth? Sure, we have seen some recent victories, but no one I have spoken to has the slightest interest in voting for them.

Quoting offloaded (Reply 50):
the reason they're able to do this is due to the relentless lies, spin, failure, cronyism and corruption of the incumbents

This is the same party that has had to sack 12 or so of its upper party in recent months for such things as fraud etc, and had some very public fallings out with candidates that have defected elsewhere?

Quoting offloaded (Reply 50):
'Above all, the European Economic Community takes away Britain's freedom to follow the sort of economic policies we need.'
Tony Blair, writing in his personal manifesto when standing for Parliament in Beaconsfield in 1982

'We'll negotiate a withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed jobs.'
Tony Blair, pledging his opposition to the EEC when standing for Parliament in Sedgefield in 1983

15 years and 14 years respectively between those comments and winning power. Its not as if opinions and approaches can change in the intervening years, now is it? Especially as the EEC and the EU underwent a massive shift during that time...
 
offloaded
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 07, 2015 3:28 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 51):
Are we really seeing voters flock to them, or is this just another media myth? Sure, we have seen some recent victories, but no one I have spoken to has the slightest interest in voting for them.

I know quite a few actually, mostly ex Tory, but a few ex Labour too. I'd say if anything, the media has been has hardly been kind to them. The BBC tried to ignore them, but it became a bit tricky when they battered the LibDems in The Euros.

Quoting moo (Reply 51):
15 years and 14 years respectively between those comments and winning power. Its not as if opinions and approaches can change in the intervening years, now is it? Especially as the EEC and the EU underwent a massive shift during that time...

Sure, opinions can change. Mine did. I was pro-EU then through the 90s I had a lot of dealings with the European Commission, after which I changed sides. Some of Farage's speeches to the EP are just great, but I realise I'm going to be a minority of 1 on this thread.
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
vc10
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:04 pm

Quoting offloaded (Reply 52):
Sure, opinions can change. Mine did. I was pro-EU then through the 90s I had a lot of dealings with the European Commission, after which I changed sides. Some of Farage's speeches to the EP are just great, but I realise I'm going to be a minority of 1 on this thread.

No you are not, but I think a lot of people who agree with the UKIP will probably vote Conservative especially in marginal seats so as to try and prevent Milliband from winning. it has always been the same with small parties which do well at by-elections which generally do not change the government, but that same party fall away in a general election when the governing party is elected.

I think there might have been a good chance of many labour voters siding with UKIP, but since the increasing influence of the SNP in this election I think a number of labour voters will stay with Mililband

For me the interesting thing from this election is the % of voters who vote for UKIP, as I can see in area where either Labour or Conservatives have a huge majority then people from both parties will vote UKIP as a protest vote, whilst knowing their seat is still safe.

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zckls04
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:56 pm

UKIP are really a cult of personality more than they are a mainstream political party. Let's face it without Farage they don't have a lot going for them.
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 07, 2015 7:07 pm

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 54):
Let's face it without Farage they don't have a lot going for them

Even with Farage thats just as true...
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 07, 2015 7:19 pm

Quoting offloaded (Reply 52):
Some of Farage's speeches to the EP are just great, but I realise I'm going to be a minority of 1 on this thread.

Its should be about whether Farage can ever deliver what he promises. Rationally, he never will. He's forecasting at 5 seats maximum in this election with some pollsters having him as low as 2 out of roughly 430 candidates. It's not a vote for a EU exit which has any chance of success so it becomes a protest vote, something which tends not to happen at a GE as, happily, the BNP found out in 2010 (not that I'm comparing the two).
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:05 pm

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 54):
Let's face it without Farage they don't have a lot going for them.

Although he is the leader I actually worry more about his party members. We had a documentary here about the party members with interviews and it was uncomfortable.

https://youtu.be/0fSbpNh9fDY
 
offloaded
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 12:50 pm

Quoting vc10 (Reply 53):

You are of course totally correct, with both Milliband and Cameron appealing to any of their voters who may have gone over to UKIP to come back, sort of "ok, I know you don't like me, but sure you hate the Tories/Labour (delete as necessary) even more" ....

The Reform Party Canada is the only example I can think of in recent times in a Western country where a new political party has become the official opposition (1997), although I don't think Cameron is as hated as Mulroney was.
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 12:58 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 56):
Its should be about whether Farage can ever deliver what he promises. Rationally, he never will. He's forecasting at 5 seats maximum in this election with some pollsters having him as low as 2 out of roughly 430 candidates.

Some pollsters are even saying South Thanet (where Farage is standing for election) will go Conservative. If the leader can't win off the tide of 2014 European elections, that's saying something.

Did anyone else watch the Scottish debate? That was painful.
 
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 1:11 pm

Quoting dumbell2424 (Reply 59):
Did anyone else watch the Scottish debate? That was painful.

Nicola Sturgeon has some arrogance, don't you think?
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 1:36 pm

Quoting offloaded (Reply 58):
The Reform Party Canada is the only example I can think of in recent times in a Western country where a new political party has become the official opposition (1997), although I don't think Cameron is as hated as Mulroney was.

The Swedish Democrates are pretty much the only opposition to an increasingly like for like political landscape in Sweden, all the other parties pretty much follow the same line with very minor differences.
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 1:52 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 60):
Nicola Sturgeon has some arrogance, don't you think?

Yes I do, but the worrying thing is that she just may be right with the whole balance of power scenario.

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 61):

That seems to be the thing in Europe today, a political elite (eg "man of the people" Milliband being interviewed from his second kitchen in his £2.5m mansion) so far detached from the people they claim to represent. Just out of interest I was reading a few comments on the official Labour Party Facebook page, and there are people there leaving comments hoping Labour will re-open the mines and get the steel works going again.
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:12 pm

Wouldnt it be extraordinary if the SNP were at the helm of Westminster  
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:57 pm

Quoting dumbell2424 (Reply 59):
Some pollsters are even saying South Thanet (where Farage is standing for election) will go Conservative. If the leader can't win off the tide of 2014 European elections, that's saying something.

I read an article the other day which had one poll with Farage 11 points ahead, another with the Tories in third place and a third which showed a near even split amongst the three parties with the Tories slightly ahead. Its fair to say South Thanet appears to be undecided!!!

[Edited 2015-04-08 14:09:31]
If you was right..................I'd agree with you
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:14 pm

Quoting gkirk (Reply 63):
Quoting offloaded (Reply 50):
Why on earth Labour just wheeled Blair out is a mystery,

The cynic in me is asking....

"I wonder what Teflon Tony's fee was"
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:44 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 60):
Nicola Sturgeon has some arrogance, don't you think?

Of course she has. Otherwise she would have resigned along with Alex Salmond after the independence referendum.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:08 pm

Quoting Dano1977 (Reply 65):
"I wonder what Teflon Tony's fee was"

A lot more pounds than the distance in miles Milliband was from Blair. 200!!  
If you was right..................I'd agree with you
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:37 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 66):
Of course she has. Otherwise she would have resigned along with Alex Salmond after the independence referendum.

They'll be another referendum in 5 years time, and the result will most likely be different. You can blame Westminster for all their blatant lies for that.
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:08 am

Quoting gkirk (Reply 68):
They'll be another referendum in 5 years time, and the result will most likely be different. You can blame Westminster for all their blatant lies for that.

And yet the SNP based a lot of their independent financial figures on a strong North Sea industry. Which subsequently collapsed basically the day after the referendum. Oil revenues dropped significantly, but money flowing into Scotland did not.

Nice fiscal planning there, Nicola! Hope someone will believe you the second time round.
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:17 am

Quoting gkirk (Reply 68):
They'll be another referendum in 5 years time, and the result will most likely be different. You can blame Westminster for all their blatant lies for that.

What happened to respecting the result of the referendum?

And the deal to “work constructively in the interests of Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom” if there was a No vote agreed with Cameron?
If you was right..................I'd agree with you
 
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:50 am

Quoting moo (Reply 69):
And yet the SNP based a lot of their independent financial figures on a strong North Sea industry. Which subsequently collapsed basically the day after the referendum.

This find potentially makes Scotland irrelevant.

http://news.sky.com/story/1461413/oi...nd-near-gatwick-may-be-world-class

100 billion barrels of oil under Gatwick, I wonder how the SNP would spin that?
 
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OA260
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:03 am

Quoting gkirk (Reply 68):
They'll be another referendum in 5 years time, and the result will most likely be different. You can blame Westminster for all their blatant lies for that.

We shall see. Scotland is a divided nation as seen last time. Many Scots like the romantic idea of independence but when it comes to ticking the box they just can't do it. They need to convince another 15-20% of the voters to push it through.
 
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:05 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 71):
This find potentially makes Scotland irrelevant.

It makes Scotland irrelevant to the rest of the UK in terms of oil revenue, but it still doesn't answer the question as to how the SNP would have faired having had their main income slashed so dramatically.

I wonder if more than a few people who voted yes are currently breathing a sigh of relief that they lost...
 
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scbriml
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:36 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 71):
This find potentially makes Scotland irrelevant.

Let me fix that for you - "This find potentially makes Scotland even more irrelevant."   

Quoting OA260 (Reply 72):
They need to convince another 15-20% of the voters to push it through.

No, they'll just give all the wee bairns the vote.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Kiwirob
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:36 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 74):
Let me fix that for you - "This find potentially makes Scotland even more irrelevant."

Thanks sorry I got it wrong, I didn't want to offend.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 74):
No, they'll just give all the wee bairns the vote.

Or offer citizenship to the Scots diaspora (like me) in return for a yes vote.
 
GDB
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:34 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 43):
Sorry? Whats the problem with a foreigner owning a newspaper or TV station here?

Other nations with a free and diverse press think otherwise, why did proud Aussie Rupe become a US citizen?
His empire could not have grown there in the way that it has had he not done so.
But remember, when he took over The Times in the early 80's, all the usual regulatory checks were swept aside.
Some would say 'well the paper was on it's uppers at the time', true but it was still a hell of a newspaper brand which presumably others would have liked to try and turn around too. Someone who was best known for Page 3 was not the obvious choice for 'The Thunderer'.

No other broadcaster, BBC included, got first look and comment on the 1990 Broadcasting Act, which was a step change in the TV industry here, except you know who.
You are damn right about a political motivation with the Murdoch's, it went on for decades just not from the side you attribute this to now.
And yes I include Blair in that as well. He essentially re-booted the influence that had diminished when his Blessed Maggie was replaced by Major.

In a way it's rather honourable that the UK is more relaxed about the issue of ownership not being nationalistic, others may spout about 'free markets' and all that but we do seem to be the ones who walk it like we talk it. This has long been true.
But there are downsides, others think it is profoundly unhealthy to have all those power companies in foreign (often at least part state owned) hands.

Of course with China, the China of the early 1990's even more so, certain 'terms and conditions' applied which we know.
Just does not sit well with the stance of Mr Murdoch and their loud campaigning for 'press freedom' in places where it already exists.

Quoting moo (Reply 51):
Are we really seeing voters flock to them, or is this just another media myth? Sure, we have seen some recent victories, but no one I have spoken to has the slightest interest in voting for them.
Quoting zckls04 (Reply 54):
UKIP are really a cult of personality more than they are a mainstream political party. Let's face it without Farage they don't have a lot going for them.

One poll suggests he's falling behind in Thanet, I did not realise it is a three way marginal, meaning the risk him coming through the middle which presumably was a factor in him choosing it.
 
TristarAtLCA
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:51 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 76):
Other nations with a free and diverse press think otherwise, why did proud Aussie Rupe become a US citizen?

It should be noted that in the four short paragraphs written above you failed to highlight a single reason why a foreign national needs to be a UK citizen to own a newspaper or TV station. But ironically, you've highlighted why it would be utterly pointless.

Murdoch became a US citizen to further his business interests. Not because he gave a damn about actually being a citizen of the United States. He'd been living there since the 70's, WTF was he waiting for? Ah yes, Metromedia.

Murdoch agreed to the necessary China censorship to further his business interests.

The deal he struck with Blair was the same as with Cameron - very little interference in his dealings to further his business interests.

You see the pattern. You're damn right he changed his citizenship for the rewards it offered. And that would be the only reason anyone would do so here to buy a newspaper title. Not sure what it is you would feel better about if someone did.


Respond at your pleasure, but afterwards, If you want to continue talking about the mythology of Murdoch and issues outside the 2015 GE (an event where his influence has been grossly overstated), please start a seperate thread. I'm done talking about him here where he's not really factor.
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:12 am

I've come to the sad realisation that I really don't care about this election, or indeed about the future direction of the United Kingdom.

In Europe the UK stands aloof from the European Union, there in person if not in spirit, and in doing so has made itself increasingly irrelevant to the future of the Union. During the Blair years I honestly thought that the UK was going to play a more active role in Europe, advocating for freer trade through trade agreements between the whole of the EU and third party states, and by reducing unnecessary regulation in Brussels. That was a missed opportunity. Using the Eurozone crisis as a fig leaf, the UK walked away, leaving a situation where even the Netherlands is probably now more influential.

With a special relationship that is now a little less special, the UK's status as an Atlantic power seems laughably irrelevant. It really is hard to perceive what power the UK exerts in the absence of a war to fight alongside big brother Uncle Sam.

Sure, London is still a global financial centre, and still plays a vitally dominant role in global commerce.

Overall, though, I look back on the last five years and the decline in British power seems stark. I followed the 2010 (and previous) elections from afar just as I do with the American elections because as a "global citizen" the British election felt like one that mattered.

Now it doesn't.

That is sad.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
GDB
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Sat Apr 18, 2015 1:04 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 77):
an event where his influence has been grossly overstated)

Well I can agree on that, (not before time either), if anything the Mail is much more hysterical and generally risible these days than the Sun ever was.
To me it smells of desperation, despite the still very uncertain likely result.

One thing I have enjoyed, well a bit, is the end of Farage as 'man of people', the 'outsider', yeah, with his background.
Attacking the audience in a debate does seem a very basic error, compounding it with a stance that seems paranoid.
Not long ago, he went to the meeting of far right US Republican loons (why?), perhaps he picked up their stance of blaming the media.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 78):
n Europe the UK stands aloof from the European Union

That's Cameron not being able to tone down the hysteria in his own party on this. Fear of UKIP too.
Many look on in amazement at the US for it's conservatives irrationality on science, guns, health, women's reproductive rights, security but swap that for many Tories and of course UKIP on Europe, it looks pretty similar.

Has the following been mentioned? Like to see Nige asked about it.
What European nation has the highest proportion of immigrants?
Us? No.
The Swedes? No.
Italians - all those boats packed with fleeing migrants in the Med? No.
It's the Swiss - who are not even in the EU.
 
TristarAtLCA
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:44 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 79):
To me it smells of desperation, despite the still very uncertain likely result.

Despite what the print media publishes it has next to no affect on the polls. A mixture of heightened politician distrust, declining print sales and multiple online news sources mean it will be a continually declining medium of influence, which was minimal at best to begin with. Saying that, the Tories underwhelming campaign so far and Cameron's near robotic performances may explain some of the coverage.

Many pollsters now predict Farage will not win in South Thanet, where hopefully, he will keep his word and resign. The audience thing the other night was one of those 'what are you doing?' moments. Thoroughly amateurish from somebody involved in politics in one form or another for many years. I hope the GE's history of not being a time for protest votes continues May 7.
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:03 am

Jeremy Hunt posted on twitter over the weekend that GP's were backing him and the Tories according to a poll - I would love to see who they polled for that, as it doesn't match reality :/
 
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:02 am

UKIP want to destroy the BBC - not surprising after Farages recent out burst about them...

They want to cut the BBC license fee by two thirds, and stop it being involved in sports etc.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32390436
 
offloaded
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:12 am

Quoting moo (Reply 82):

The licence fee is outdated and should be scrapped. I think people across the political spectrum think that, not just on the right. And, probably no surprise from me, but I agree with Farage. I've watched several debates in recent times when certainly don't think the audience represents an accurate cross section of society.
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:07 am

Quoting offloaded (Reply 83):

On the contrary, the license fee is what makes the BBC the excellent media system that it is - no other institution comes close.

Lose the license fee, the entire BBC is next imho.
 
Elite
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:09 am

The BBC is one of those rare British institutions that work (relatively) well and still command huge international respect. If something is worth keeping, it's the BBC.
 
offloaded
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:18 am

Well I don't know if you guys are actually in The Falklands, or in Hong Kong, but I'm in Portugal, so that could just be 3 of us who aren't actually paying for it. Any resident Brits want to jump in with your feelings?
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:40 am

Quoting offloaded (Reply 86):
Well I don't know if you guys are actually in The Falklands, or in Hong Kong, but I'm in Portugal, so that could just be 3 of us who aren't actually paying for it. Any resident Brits want to jump in with your feelings?

Oh, I'm in the UK, don't you worry  

For me, a prime example of the license fee working is when the F1 is shown on the BBC - no adverts, good commentary etc. On Sky, you also get no adverts and good commentary, plus a host of other stuff around the actual race that adds value, but then you pay for the service and channel monthly, so you can expect that.

But for a stint, the F1 rights were bought by ITV, and it was utterly rubbish - ad breaks *during* the race, where you missed action (several times you came back and the leader had changed or something). Those were painful years.

The BBCs current situation with F1, splitting the rights with Sky, is a best-effort approach because the rights have got too expensive, but I would still rather have the current situation than it go to ITV etc.
 
offloaded
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:27 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 87):

Appreciate what you're saying. So.... why not the BBC as a subscription service?
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:38 pm

Quoting offloaded (Reply 88):
Appreciate what you're saying. So.... why not the BBC as a subscription service?

Because its the guaranteed income which allows it to function, not just any income. For the BBC to do what it currently does, you are talking Sky levels of money a month rather than TV License levels of money a year.
 
offloaded
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:56 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 89):

Or become a commercial enterprise?
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
TristarAtLCA
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:04 pm

Quoting offloaded (Reply 90):
Or become a commercial enterprise?

I would think it highly unlikely the other commercial stations would want the BBC sniffing around for a piece of the limited advertising pie.

Thats the crux with the BBC. Its an anomaly in an otherwise purely commercial industry in the UK.
If you was right..................I'd agree with you
 
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moo
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:19 pm

Quoting offloaded (Reply 90):
Or become a commercial enterprise?

See my point above about why the BBC is so great because of the license fee - moving to advert supported completely removes the plus points of the BBC.
 
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zckls04
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:31 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 80):
Despite what the print media publishes it has next to no affect on the polls.

Hard to quantify, but I think that's hyperbole- the print media still has a significant effect. Ed Miliband certainly suffered at the hands of that Evening Standard photographer when eating his bacon sandwich. After all the print media's influence spreads far beyond sales of their own papers- many of the stories on the internet originate from old-fashioned journalism, because few sites on the internet can fund their own original reports.

The role of TV is definitely significant too, especially now we have debates, but the print media definitely have a significant effect which reaches far beyond their readership.

Quoting offloaded (Reply 83):
The licence fee is outdated and should be scrapped. I think people across the political spectrum think that, not just on the right

Depends. Ask people if they think the TV licence should be abolished and they say yes. Ask them if they think the BBC should be abolished and they say no. You can't have one without the other.
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:57 pm

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 93):
Hard to quantify, but I think that's hyperbole- the print media still has a significant effect. Ed Miliband certainly suffered at the hands of that Evening Standard photographer when eating his bacon sandwich.

In terms of the coming election, which is the context of the quote, what I wrote was correct. Parliament was dissolved March 31 and the polls have barely moved. GDB was referring to the Mail's continuing vitriol against, well, just about everything not Tory or indigenous. Its made not a jot of difference to the polls whoever writes what. The UK is heading for consecutive hung parliaments and, barring a massive misstep by one of the main parties, no newspaper/blog/news bulletin is going to change that. Print media is in decline in the UK. I work in a office with nine other people and am the only one who buys a daily paper. Citizens have votes, not newspapers.

As for the Milliband bacon sandwich photo, he made light of it in a humourous way and despite some ridiculous commentary from the right wing press most people are fully aware that if we had high burst rate photographs taken of us eating a sandwich, one of the frames would inevitably make you look awkward. Considering he is basically neck and neck in most polls (ahead in others) I'm not sure what he suffered. At the end of the day, Brits don't really vote on the basis of such trivial issues.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 93):
The role of TV is definitely significant too, especially now we have debates, but the print media definitely have a significant effect which reaches far beyond their readership.

And the affect of the debates and the cheerleading from their respective print supporters has been?
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:23 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 94):
In terms of the coming election, which is the context of the quote, what I wrote was correct. Parliament was dissolved March 31 and the polls have barely moved

Which proves nothing- if the media is consistent in its reporting the polls should reflect that. If you're arguing that the media can't persuade 100% of the population to vote in a particular way, then I don't think anybody would disagree. But elections are won with fine margins.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 94):
Print media is in decline in the UK. I work in a office with nine other people and am the only one who buys a daily paper. Citizens have votes, not newspapers.

It certainly is. But that decline has slowed, and as I mentioned above, plenty of print media stories and photographs spill over into other media arenas too, particularly when so much of the media is in the hands of so few.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 94):
Considering he is basically neck and neck in most polls (ahead in others) I'm not sure what he suffered.

Who knows? Perhaps he would be miles ahead. You're assuming a 50/50 result would be the expected outcome were the media completely absent, but that's a false assumption.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 94):
At the end of the day, Brits don't really vote on the basis of such trivial issues.

Yeah, that's why the parties all spend millions on image consultants for their leaders....

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 94):
And the affect of the debates and the cheerleading from their respective print supporters has been?

Ask again the day after the election.
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:00 pm

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 95):
Which proves nothing

What part of this:

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 80):
Despite what the print media publishes it has next to no affect on the polls.

is unproven. It is in reference to a specific period of time (31/4 to now) and proven by the numbers. Show I'm mistaken inside of this election campaign.



Quoting zckls04 (Reply 95):
If you're arguing that the media can't persuade 100% of the population to vote in a particular way, then I don't think anybody would disagree.

I really do not have a clue where you extrapolated this nonsense from. Where did I say anything remotely resembling this?

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 95):
t certainly is. But that decline has slowed, and as I mentioned above, plenty of print media stories and photographs spill over into other media arenas too, particularly when so much of the media is in the hands of so few.

Even if the decline is slowing, its still declining month on month. This is unarguable.

Of course there is content crossover, but its usually to drive traffic to their websites and it certainly isn't a one way street. Drudge being a good US example.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 95):
Who knows? Perhaps he would be miles ahead. You're assuming a 50/50 result would be the expected outcome were the media completely absent, but that's a false assumption.

And in the world of theoreticals he could also be miles behind and I don't waste time on assumed non-realities. Lets stick to where we actually are with an encamped and real media and say that no-one knows yet what the make up of this country's government will look like May 8. Heck, we may not know then.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 95):
Yeah, that's why the parties all spend millions on image consultants for their leaders....

Again, what are you saying with this comment? The bacon sandwich was a staged photo op and occurred in May 2014. Things go awry. Like when Brown called that lady a bigot. That didn't cause him to lose in 2010.

But back to the actual point, which trivial issues will decide the 2015 GE?

[Edited 2015-04-21 14:01:57]

[Edited 2015-04-21 14:03:30]
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:31 am

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 96):
It is in reference to a specific period of time (31/4 to now) and proven by the numbers. Show I'm mistaken inside of this election campaign.

Unless you can demonstrate a corresponding seismic shift in the attitude of the press during that time period (like the Sun's switch to New Labour in 1997), you can't show that they have no influence.

If A causes B, and A stays the same, B would be expected to stay the same. That's basic logic.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 96):
Even if the decline is slowing, its still declining month on month. This is unarguable.

Of course there is content crossover, but its usually to drive traffic to their websites and it certainly isn't a one way street. Drudge being a good US example.

None of which exactly supports your claim that the print media are completely irrelevant. So it goes both ways- doesn't that prove that the print media are a cog in a larger machine? Therefore absent that cog, the machine would be affected.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 96):
And in the world of theoreticals he could also be miles behind and I don't waste time on assumed non-realities

I am not assuming anything- you are. We don't know where the natural equilibrium would lie without any press influence. Therefore you can't claim that on the basis the polls are 50:50 that the print media has no effect. As above, saying something is "proven" doesn't make so.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 96):
Again, what are you saying with this comment? The bacon sandwich was a staged photo op and occurred in May 2014. Things go awry. Like when Brown called that lady a bigot. That didn't cause him to lose in 2010.

It's very simple. Politicians know that the press do have an influence, and that the way they are portrayed is of great importance to their campaign. Therefore they spend money to ensure their image is portrayed favorably.

Think also about the words of David Cameron who conceded during the Leveson enquiry that "we all did too much cozying up to Rupert Murdoch". I'm betting he doesn't think the print media have no influence.
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:42 am

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 97):
Unless you can demonstrate a corresponding seismic shift in the attitude of the press during that time period (like the Sun's switch to New Labour in 1997), you can't show that they have no influence.

I'll approach from a different angle. The entire media machine, or cogs if you like -TV, radio, print, digital plus party canvassing has had next to no affect on the polling numbers. Unlike TV and radio which is usually pretty balanced, the print media is the most partisan, the most skewed if you will. The papers are majority Tory/right of centre, so if they had any influence on the 2015 GE, shouldn't it be clearly visible? No? Why not? It should show a Tory lead. It doesn't because simplistic A causes B arguments lack the variables of what makes people decide who to vote for. Forum member moo has shown that in this thread. Normally a Tory voter, but not this time due to his specialist knowledge of the changes taking place in the NHS (thats not to say I know categorically its a single issue for him).

What we have seen though, is that attacks on politicians (like the shameful Mail piece on Milliband's long dead father) produce quite the opposite of the intended goal. Despite this media battering his personal poll numbers rise. Even the Tory spin merchants have closed that line of attack.

The Sun backing Blair in 97 had nothing to do with election influence. If you believe it was you simply don't understand what took place.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 97):
None of which exactly supports your claim that the print media are completely irrelevant. So it goes both ways- doesn't that prove that the print media are a cog in a larger machine? Therefore absent that cog, the machine would be affected.

You're framing your position on something I never said and moving from the specific to the general. Where did I say the press was completely irrelevant? You need to stop creating positions I haven't taken. Without the press we wouldn't have had the likes of the expenses scandal or Snowden to name but two. However, as Wikileaks (amongst others) has shown, you don't need to buy ink to create real content.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 97):
I am not assuming anything- you are. We don't know where the natural equilibrium would lie without any press influence. Therefore you can't claim that on the basis the polls are 50:50 that the print media has no effect.

It was in fact your position that Milliband suffered due to the bacon photo. Yet in the same month of May, Labour increased their MEP numbers while beating the Tory's into third place and was the first party in the local elections. This is not a theoretical unknown.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 97):
It's very simple. Politicians know that the press do have an influence, and that the way they are portrayed is of great importance to their campaign. Therefore they spend money to ensure their image is portrayed favorably.

Then why then hasn't Milliband courted the majority right wing press more? He seems to have missed a trick according to you.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 97):
Think also about the words of David Cameron who conceded during the Leveson enquiry that "we all did too much cozying up to Rupert Murdoch". I'm betting he doesn't think the print media have no influence.

I've already posted in this thread about the courting of Murdoch. Of course you want the biggest selling daily and Sunday paper in your camp. The problem with the thoroughly lazy assumption that Murdoch is the kingmaker at election time deserves an extended slot on QI's General Ignorance. Its simply not true. As the Guardian summed up part of Campbell's testimony at Leveson:

'Murdoch was "certainly the most important media player, without a doubt," says Campbell, adding that Murdoch backed New Labour because it was going to win the election; New Labour did not win because Murdoch backed the party.'

Still waiting for the trivial issues that will decide this election.
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RE: The UK Election Thread

Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:21 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 98):
The papers are majority Tory/right of centre, so if they had any influence on the 2015 GE, shouldn't it be clearly visible? No? Why not?

Because consistent pressure from the same side would still just prop up the same status quo.

The question would rather be: If the right-wing media suddenly stopped pushing for the Tories and/or UKIP as they’ve done for many years, would that show up in the polls?

(Change -> change?)

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