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TristarAtLCA
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 1:56 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 48):
In the same timespan the murder rate increased in England & Wales (have life imprisonment w/o parole, and love it)

It did increase, but it had been doing so, apart from from a few odd years, since before whole life terms were introduced in 1983. Since 1983 less than 100 whole life terms have been handed down in relation to roughly 19,500 homicides, so hardly an indication that the Judiciary 'loves' the punishment. Our murder rate has in fact dropped since 2002/3 from a high of 17.9% to 9.8% (per million) in 2011/12. Bearing in mind those statistics include:

Year 2002/03 includes 172 victims of Dr Harold Shipman.
Year 2003/04 includes 20 cockle pickers who drowned in Morecambe Bay.
Year 2005/06 includes 52 victims of the 7 July London bombings.

murder rate statistics need to be treated with caution but they clearly don't support your theory in the last decade or so in the UK.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 48):
and Portugal

The latest Eurostat figures show Portugal has a slightly higher murder rate than the UK. But again, I treat this with caution.
If you was right..................I'd agree with you
 
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OA412
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 3:02 pm

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 29):
I disagree. You want to allow one-half of the population the ability to terminate a life. Or, to put it more bluntly...kill an unborn child.

No, that's not it at all. You're conflating the issues. Allowing women the option to have an abortion is not the same as being pro-abortion, and frankly, you know that.

I've known plenty of women who have had abortions, including family members. They took necessary precautions, and pregnancy still happened. They're not bad people, nor are they baby killers. None of them made the decision to have an abortion lightly.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 28):
We can in certain cases like Dzokhar Tzarnev. But those are a small minority of cases.

True. I wasn't quite thinking when I posted that.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 29):
sure, we can. Do you have any doubt that the soon-to-be martyr of Boston killed 3 people and maimed or injured 250 more? Or that the asshole in Aurora killed 12 and injured 70? Those are just he high-profile cases. I'm sure there are many others that don't fit the national media landscape, but are just as clear-cut.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 28):
We can in certain cases like Dzokhar Tzarnev. But those are a small minority of cases.

As I noted above, I wasn't quite thinking when I posted that.

I'm quite familiar with the James Holmes case since I live in Colorado and was here when it all happened. It still doesn't make me support the death penalty. Holmes has at least twice offered to plead guilty in exchange for life without parole. The prosecutor has refused to accept the plea and is pursuing the death penalty for political reasons. In the process, he's footing CO taxpayers with a massive bill even though this could be over and done with by now.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 44):
I think a pregnant man would have exactly the right to terminate his pregnancy as any women.

Oh please, if men were the ones getting pregnant, abortions would be free, readily available, and there would be no debate. Not to mention the compulsory year of maternity leave...

[Edited 2015-05-29 08:05:18]
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TristarAtLCA
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 3:10 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 50):
from a high of 17.9% to 9.8% (per million)

oops. Obviously meant 17.9 and 9.8 per million. Not percent per million!!
If you was right..................I'd agree with you
 
tommy1808
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 3:27 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 50):
It did increase, but it had been doing so, apart from from a few odd years, since before whole life terms were introduced in 1983

I never said it didn´t. It is a relative change. I thought i made that sufficiently clear.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 50):
Since 1983 less than 100 whole life terms have been handed down in relation to roughly 19,500 homicides, so hardly an indication that the Judiciary 'loves' the punishment.

By European standards that is pure love. And have you noticed how your current government actively pursues making it harder, more time consuming and more expensive to go to the EHRC to get the rights that you are perfectly entitled to?

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 50):
The latest Eurostat figures show Portugal has a slightly higher murder rate than the UK. But again, I treat this with caution.

Exactly, you can´t compare absolute numbers between nations, but you can compare how those changed over time and which, if any, legal changes happened around that time. And as a general rule over time, nations without capital punishment see a stronger change for the better than those with capital punishment, and those without life imprisonment w/o chance of parole fared better than those with. There will be exceptions of course, but the trend is pretty clear. The USA, basically same people, language and culture over 50 different jurisdictions, make a much better basis for a comparison. And shows the same long term trend.
It is very logical as well, once you committed a crime that may get you the highest possible sentence in that jurisdiction, there is not much in the way of incentive to play nice anymore. Criminals never commit a crime when they expect to be caught, that limits the deterrent value severely, but once they think they may be caught strict laws provide an excellent incentive to commit any crime that may help to stay undetected. Especially when you risk is a silly sentence like 75 times life.....
Absolute numbers will also fluctuate much more in small nations, because one serial killer/killing spree/and so on have a bigger impact on the numbers for countries with smaller populations.

I think i substantiated quite well that a proof of longer sentences/death penalty working as an effective deterrent is not supported by any of the available data. You can´t go and kill, innocent among them, people when the best you accomplish is not making it worse.

It is noteworthy that there appears to be a strong positive correlations between belief into a personal god that answers to prayers and intervenes in peoples life and support for capital punishment.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 3:32 pm

Quoting OA412 (Reply 51):
Oh please, if men were the ones getting pregnant, abortions would be free, readily available, and there would be no debate.

Yup, it is one of the few arrows left in the quiver to exert power over women that has some acceptance in modern societies.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 6:07 pm

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 41):
Correct, that's why we convict using that standard. But, we are not talking about conviction anymore, we're talking about sentencing.

Sentencing is a completely different animal and can be subject to legislative constraints.

I can kinda see that, but then you seem to be conflating sentencing with burdens of proof by throwing eyewitness testimony in. That is just evidence, who cares about that? You get beyond a reasonable doubt and you're 99.99999% sure (that's how the justice system is set up.) Doesn't matter if there was an eyewitness or not

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 41):

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 40):
Executing people is just not worth it, at all

Opinion.

Yeah it's an opinion, and I hope it would be your opinion that is completely not worth executing people when there is a chance of killing innocent people. You mention how you'd rather let 99 guilty people walk than let 1 innocent person go to jail, so how can you think it's worth executing people when some may (and have been) innocent?

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 43):

If the prosecutor can't make the death penalty case without witness testimony, then it shouldn't be a death penalty case.

Why? Again, beyond a reasonable doubt is beyond a reasonable doubt. Eye witness testimony is a type of evidence. You can be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt with or without eyewitness testimony, and you can be unconvinced with or without it.

Requiring eyewitness testimony is just an arbitrary requirement. In fact, I'd argue that DNA, if done properly, can be way more useful than eyewitnesses that can misidentify, lie, remember incorrectly, etc.

When you have beyond a reasonable doubt, you have that extremely rigid burden of proof. You don't necessarily need eyewitnesses

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 46):

So, your answer is...? Release a mass murderer back into society? Or a violent criminal who has killed?

I'm not sure how I feel about life without parole, but the argument isn't "oh well he'll definitely get parole and get out." No, you can easily keep denying someone's parole until they die in prison at an extremely old age
 
TristarAtLCA
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 7:05 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 53):
I never said it didn´t. It is a relative change. I thought i made that sufficiently clear.

What I objected to and where you erred was using the UK as an example of your argument. There has been peaks and troughs both pre and post legislative change in 1983. And apart from a spike between 99/00 and 2002/3 (helped by Shipman's victims being added en-masse) the trend has been downward since. You implicitly used the UK to insinuate that murder trends had only increased. Whether this is an exception is neither here nor there as I am explicitly referring to the UK.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 53):
By European standards that is pure love.

A silly comment and 60 current life-termers is not considered high here. And we need to be clear, the ECHR has no problem with whole life imprisonment. It has long accepted people can be imprisoned for life. It becomes a problem when there is no mechanism for review or chance of parole, which is where the UK lost in 2013 and won in 2015 in seperate cases.
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 8:20 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 55):
In fact, I'd argue that DNA, if done properly, can be way more useful than eyewitnesses that can misidentify, lie, remember incorrectly, etc.

DNA can confirm eyewitness testimony. But if I were to accuse you right now of killing someone and say "I saw you", how will everyone else know that I'm telling the truth?
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Fri May 29, 2015 8:35 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 57):
DNA can confirm eyewitness testimony. But if I were to accuse you right now of killing someone and say "I saw you", how will everyone else know that I'm telling the truth?

IDK, depends on a ton of things. My point is there isn't beyond a reasonable doubt (BRD) lite, BRD +, BRD v2, BRD deluxe, etc. It's simply beyond a reasonable doubt. I can see why it's natural for people to want to tack on additional criteria depending on the case but it's redundant and unneeded... if it is needed, we're basically saying it's because we're convicting people when there is a reasonable doubt and we want to make even more sure. Well if there's reasonable doubt, we shouldn't be convicting them in the first place. If you have BRD and add 15 eye witnesses, it's still BRD. You don't have a stronger BRD or anything, as per the definition.

Now all that being said, that's implying that our legal system functions perfectly. I don't think anyone here is saying it is, so how can anyone say we should have the death penalty with a less than perfect system? Kill the Boston Bombers because they're obviously guilty? Again, by definition, anyone convicted to death row is also obviously guilty. How do we pick and choose between obviously guilty and obviously guilty? And whoops, we find out that some obviously guilty people are indeed not guilty. And we are for keeping the death penalty??

The death penalty is completely immoral with an imperfect justice system (aka all justice systems.) No way around it.
 
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fr8mech
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sat May 30, 2015 1:01 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 48):
But your point is bogus anyways, since you still fail to proof that a convicted murderer is more likely to commit another murder than any other criminal.


[url=http://www.cbsnews.com/news/once-a-criminal-always-a-criminal/]Once a Criminal...[/url

(I can't get the hyperlink to work, when I close the brackets, it screws up the formatting and removes all kinds of text; cut and paste to read the article.)

it also found that about 10 percent of convicted murderers released in 30 states in 2005 were arrested within 6 months, and about 48 percent were arrested within five years.

Out of all violent offenders released in 30 states in 2005, about 33 percent were arrested for another violent offense within five years of their release.


Though, I would certainly be interested in what California was doing during that time period.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 55):
but then you seem to be conflating sentencing with burdens of proof by throwing eyewitness testimony in.

Not really, all I'm saying is that the prosecutor can be constrained through legislation on whether or not he can seek the death penalty. The criminal trial phase is separate from the penalty phase...as it is right now in several death penalty states.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 58):
My point is there isn't beyond a reasonable doubt (BRD) lite, BRD , BRD v2, BRD deluxe, etc. It's simply beyond a reasonable doubt.

And, you're conflating the trial phase with the sentencing phase.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 55):
and I hope it would be your opinion that is completely not worth executing people when there is a chance of killing innocent people.

Correct, hence my first condition.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 55):
I'm not sure how I feel about life without parole,

I've absolutely no problem with life without parole.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 48):
so of course everyone has to have a realistic chance of regaining his freedom.

Why? These people ceded any right they had to live among us when they decided to kill for personal gain. Again, I'm referring to capital murder or first degree murder (as the case may be), not lesser forms of homicide.
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Mir
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sat May 30, 2015 3:37 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 59):
The criminal trial phase is separate from the penalty phase...

The penalty phase is conducted with the understanding that the defendant is guilty, since a guilty verdict has been rendered. We'd be venturing onto very unstable ground if a central question in the penalty phase were to be "how sure are we the defendant is guilty?" That raises a bunch of issues.

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fr8mech
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sat May 30, 2015 4:24 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 60):
We'd be venturing onto very unstable ground if a central question in the penalty phase were to be "how sure are we the defendant is guilty?" That raises a bunch of issues.

That's a good point. But, I think if it is addressed proactively, through legislation that constrains the prosecution and sets out a fairly narrow definition of a capital crime.

The penalty phase is where we get all the victim-impact statements and the arguments against this particular convicted felon being executed.

Really, I'm not looking at too much of a change from what exists now, I just want to tighten the application of the death penalty. I want less executions...quality over quantity, if I may be so gauche.

But, even if all that happens, we still have to execute the condemned in a timely manner in order for the execution to have any effect outside the walls of the prison.

Like, I said before...capital punishment, the way it is applied in the US, is ineffective.
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Aesma
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sat May 30, 2015 10:43 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 60):
The penalty phase is conducted with the understanding that the defendant is guilty, since a guilty verdict has been rendered. We'd be venturing onto very unstable ground if a central question in the penalty phase were to be "how sure are we the defendant is guilty?" That raises a bunch of issues.

It still plays a role. In the French system, very different from the US one (no need for unanimity for example, 8 out of 12 jurors are needed to convict, 3 jurors are professional judges, etc.), it regularly happens that a defendant is found not guilty even though pretty much everyone (including the jurors) agree with the culpability, because some jurors feel the defendant should get a light sentence, or only time served, and are not sure that that's what the outcome after a guilty verdict will be.

I'm talking about the gravest crimes here, because lighter ones (less than 10 years prison) are not judged by jury. Typically a woman who finally killed her violent husband will be found not guilty of "manslaughter" even though she freely admits to having done it.
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sat May 30, 2015 2:25 pm

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 61):


Really, I'm not looking at too much of a change from what exists now, I just want to tighten the application of the death penalty. I want less executions...quality over quantity, if I may be so gauche.

And you think we can make changes to be 100% sure? (Or at least 99.9999% sure, barring crazy conspiracy theory scenarios)

If the answer is yes, then what happened with the cases where we were also 99.9999% sure and we ended up acquitting someone on death row?

I agree with Mir, why are you bringing types of evidence into the sentencing portion? When you get to sentencing, the dude is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. All these tack ons and requirements for this and that are moot. Guilty is guilty. I really don't understand your additional requirements for the sentencing phase and I still don't see how that addresses the fact that the mistakes happen in the trial.

Why differentiate this one guy guilty of murder beyond a reasonable doubt with some other guy guilty of murder beyond a reasonable doubt?

Your fix for the flaws in the trial phase seems to occur in the sentencing phase
 
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fr8mech
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sat May 30, 2015 10:24 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 63):
I really don't understand your additional requirements for the sentencing phase and I still don't see how that addresses the fact that the mistakes happen in the trial.

You do realize that happens right now in the sentencing phase, right? That's where the prosecution, in addition to victim impact statements, gets to toss in the aggravating circumstances that warrant, in the state's opinion, the death penalty.

My plan, such that it is, provides legislative guidance or constraint, to the prosecutor as to what evidence he needs [i]before[i/] he can seek the death penalty. And, even then, the jury (or judge) can decide to set aside the death penalty and sentence the convicted felon (because, by now, he is convicted) to life without parole in the penalty phase.
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Mir
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sat May 30, 2015 11:39 pm

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 61):
But, I think if it is addressed proactively, through legislation that constrains the prosecution and sets out a fairly narrow definition of a capital crime.

That's fine, and we've already got that - some crimes are eligible for the death penalty, and some aren't. But when the legislature says "someone who commits 1st degree murder is eligible for the death penalty, and someone who commits 2nd degree murder is not", that's very cut and dry - you either have a conviction for 1st degree murder or you don't (or, in other words, you either did the capital crime or you didn't). The legislature saying "someone who commits 1st degree murder is eligible for the death penalty, but only if the jury is very sure that the defendant is guilty" is very different. At that point, you're not defining the crime, you're defining the quality of evidence used. The question of how good the evidence is is something for the trial phase, not the sentencing phase.

The sentencing phase should be about how repentant the defendant is, how much of a threat they pose to others, etc. Those are all things that have nothing to do with whether they're guilty or not. And that's a good thing - there needs to be a clear distinction between evidence used to support guilt and evidence used to support a certain penalty.

As for the legislature defining things, I don't trust any legislature to come up with a law specific enough that it is not open to interpretation (otherwise we're just shifting the politicking to another point in the process) but which also allows the latitude necessary for fair outcomes.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 61):
Really, I'm not looking at too much of a change from what exists now,

That's quite apparent, and that's where I find the biggest flaw in your reasoning. I would argue that the current system is broken so badly that it cannot be brought into an appropriate state of repair by only small changes.

-Mir
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 12:11 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 64):
You do realize that happens right now in the sentencing phase, right? That's where the prosecution, in addition to victim impact statements, gets to toss in the aggravating circumstances that warrant, in the state's opinion, the death penalty.

Yes, I understand that. Having aggravating circumstances is completely different than requiring eyewitness testimony in order to issue the death penalty. The former have to do with the intent and the mindset... the latter has nothing to do with it, it's merely how you get to the guilty verdict, and as I've laid out many times, it doesn't matter how you got there as long as you got there.

My point has always been that we have a flawed justice system (all justice systems will have some sort of error involved) and when you do irreversible things like executing someone, you're risking killing someone and not being able to undo it. From that point, we seemed to have drifted off into sentencing... I mean not to ignore your arguments on sentencing but I don't really take them into account at all when arguing why I'm against the death penalty. I don't think you're talking about sentencing to refute my point (because that doesn't make any sense) so I'm sure there was just a miscommunication along the way.

Anyway, how can you advocate having the death penalty when there is a chance of executing innocent people?
 
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fr8mech
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 2:08 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 66):
Anyway, how can you advocate having the death penalty when there is a chance of executing innocent people?

Wow, have you read or retained nothing I've written?

I do NOT support the death penalty as it is currently administered in the US.
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 3:41 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 67):
I do NOT support the death penalty as it is currently administered in the US.

I get that. I'm arguing that there will always be some room for error. Always.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 7:58 am

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 56):
What I objected to and where you erred was using the UK as an example of your argument.

Well, there are no perfect comparisons between nations. You´d had a point if i based my comparison only on the UK, which i didn´t.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 56):
There has been peaks and troughs both pre and post legislative change in 1983. And apart from a spike between 99/00 and 2002/3 (helped by Shipman's victims being added en-masse) the trend has been downward since.

You have those peaks in all countries. The time frame i chose does no include any UK peaks, so i don´t see how those peaks have any bearing on the validity of the comparison.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 56):
You implicitly used the UK to insinuate that murder trends had only increased.

Unless i unintentionally phrased it badly i didn´t. I said that the UK saw an increase over a specific time frame, while the other countries in my comparison show a decrease in the same time frame. Heck, i even pointed out that there are fluctuations....

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 56):
A silly comment and 60 current life-termers is not considered high here.

Its nice that you don´t consider that high whereever your "here" is, but in my "here" (Germany) and lots of other "heres" (Spain an Portugal) that is a awful high number, since the numbers "here" and "here" are naturally lower.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 56):
And we need to be clear, the ECHR has no problem with whole life imprisonment. It has long accepted people can be imprisoned for life. It becomes a problem when there is no mechanism for review or chance of parole,

Since we are talking about life imprisonment w/o chance of parole compared to it with chance of parole i would think that has been clear all along, so i don´t see why you feel the need to point that out.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 59):
[url=http://www.cbsnews.com/news/once-a-criminal-always-a-criminal/]Once a Criminal...[/url

Those are nice numbers, but they have nothing to do with the question i asked or the point i asked you to back up. I find it rather curious that you chose not to quote the only part of the article that refers to murder:

Quote:
Mullane said she was able to determine that 988 convicted murderers were released from prisons in California over a 20 year period. Out of those 988, she said 1 percent were arrested for new crimes, and 10 percent were arrested for violating parole. She found none of the 988 were rearrested for murder, and none went back to prison over the 20 year period she examined.
Quoting fr8mech (Reply 59):
Why? These people ceded any right they had to live among us when they decided to kill for personal gain. Again, I'm referring to capital murder or first degree murder (as the case may be), not lesser forms of homicide.

You can´t cede, lose or have your human rights taken away, that is why they are called human rights. One of those rights is the right to a life in dignity. There is no dignity in a life w/o hope, life imprisonment w/o chance of parole takes hope away....

See here:
http://www.theguardian.com/law/2013/...without-review-breach-human-rights
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/1...642980500170857?journalCode=fjhr20
http://hrlr.oxfordjournals.org/conte...rly/2015/02/02/hrlr.ngu042.extract
http://www.statewatch.org/analyses/n...259-life-imprisonment-in-Spain.pdf

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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fallap
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 9:19 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 1):
You're equating the life of an unborn child with the life of a convicted killer?

A life is still a life. If you are pro life, then you are pro-every-7-billion-people-on-Earth. You cannot pick and choose.

Who knows, perhaps that aborted fetus would have grown up to be a serial killer?  
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TristarAtLCA
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 12:22 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 69):
Well, there are no perfect comparisons between nations. You´d had a point if i based my comparison only on the UK, which i didn´t.

Now you're being slippery. You used the UK and France as an example of how murder rates increased when strict (although very little used) sentences are in place when the evidence doesn't support your theory in the UK. You have no evidence whatsoever that the introduction of life terms made a difference to the UK's statistics.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 69):
The time frame i chose does no include any UK peaks, so i don´t see how those peaks have any bearing on the validity of the comparison.

You chose 1967-2012. There was in fact a peak between 00-03.

A decade plus of downward trends from the high is not a fluctuation.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 69):
Its nice that you don´t consider that high whereever your "here" is, but in my "here" (Germany) and lots of other "heres" (Spain an Portugal) that is a awful high number, since the numbers "here" and "here" are naturally lower.

Flippant drivel. It's never 'nice' when a whole life term is handed down. That suggests a crime so abhorrent or savage that the judge felt the sentence appropriate. A sentence that is automatically reviewed and open to appeal procedures. 'Here', we would rejoice if a whole life term is never handed down again, whatever you may think. Your reliance on this rarely used sentence in comparison with the US and its '75 times life' possible sentences is absurd.

It should be noted the average sentence served for murder in the UK is approx 14 years. And I must point out, that as my partner is in her 25th year in law enforcement in the UK, my knowledge of UK crime and punishment exceeds yours by several orders of magnitude.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 69):
Since we are talking about life imprisonment w/o chance of parole compared to it with chance of parole i would think that has been clear all along, so i don´t see why you feel the need to point that out.

Not everybody on this board or reading this thread is a European.

[Edited 2015-05-31 05:53:31]
If you was right..................I'd agree with you
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12875
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 1:47 pm

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 71):
Now you're being slippery.

Nope, i am not. I pointed out way up in this thread that you can´t directly compare absolute numbers.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 71):
You used the UK and France as an example of how murder rates increased when strict

Which is factually correct, both did see an increase in murder rates between 1976 and 2012.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 71):
when the evidence doesn't support your theory in the UK.

My theory was that stricter punishments is not helpful in fighting crime, may it be capital punishment over life without chance of parole or that vs. life with chance of parole. I checked that hypothesis versus data from:

US states with vs. US states w/o death penalty, as they make for a good comparison being one nation, and
EU states with life imprisonment w/o chance of parole vs. those with.

In both cases the data for the time frame supports the validity of my hypothesis, the time frame also wasn´t randomly picked, it encompasses the time from 1976, because that was the last year with life imprisonment w/o chance of parole in Germany and 2012, because that is the last year i happened to find aggregated data for all countries within the scope of my "study".

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 71):
There was in fact a peak between 00-03.

A peak in 2000-2003 has zero effect on the rates in either 1976, nor 2012, or the relative change between 1976 and 2012. If i had made a comparison between 1976 and 2003, yeah, then you may have a point, as that would paint an unfairly grim picture. But neither was 1976 a year with an exceptional record low, nor did 2012 have a peak, so i really don´t see how 2000-2003 has any bearing on this discussion.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 71):
A decade plus of downward trends from the high is not a fluctuation.

Where did i say that wasn´t a trend? We didn´t even touch the specific 2003-2012 time frame so far, so how could i have possible said something about it? We are talking about certain trends in a certain time frame after all, and that trend favors fighting crimes with less severe punishment as the data demonstrates.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 71):
Your reliance on this rarely used sentence in comparison with the US and its '75 times life' possible sentences is absurd.

Actually i didn´t compare the UK with the US, i compared US states with US states and EU states with EU states and showed that both comparisons show the same trend.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 71):
And I must point out, that as my partner is in her 25th year in law enforcement in the UK, my knowledge of UK crime and punishment exceeds yours by several orders of magnitude.

Fortunately "i am a bigger expert than you" isn´t how science works, it is "my hypothesis explains the available data better than yours". Haven´t seen much data from you yet... "

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 71):
Not everybody on this board or reading this thread is a European.

Well, i like to think that they can read and may have noticed all the with and w/o ...

best regards
Thoas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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fr8mech
Posts: 8021
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 2:48 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 69):
Those are nice numbers, but they have nothing to do with the question

We were discussing recidivism, no?

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 69):
I find it rather curious that you chose not to quote the only part of the article that refers to murder:

But, I did quote numbers on murder. Maybe you missed them:

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 59):
it also found that about 10 percent of convicted murderers released in 30 states in 2005 were arrested within 6 months, and about 48 percent were arrested within five years.


But, I think I see the issue. You make a distinction between murder and being arrested again. I do not make that distinction. If the convicted murderer had remained in prison, he would not have committed another crime.

And, further:

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 59):
Out of all violent offenders released in 30 states in 2005, about 33 percent were arrested for another violent offense within five years of their release.

Murder is considered a violent crime, no? Clearly, the longer we keep violent folks in prison, we reduce the opportunity for those people to inflict more pain on society.

And, I did mention the California statistical aberration:

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 59):
Though, I would certainly be interested in what California was doing during that time period
Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 69):
You can´t cede, lose or have your human rights taken away, that is why they are called human rights.

Sure you can. When you cease to act as a human and decide to act as some animal in the wild, you should be treated as such. These people, through their actions, gave up any right they had to remain within society.

Quoting Fallap (Reply 70):
If you are pro life, then you are pro-every-7-billion-people-on-Earth.

Who said I was pro-life? I am anti-abortion. I thought I made the distinction clear in reply 1.

But, you can be pro-life in the case of an innocent unborn child and pro-execution in the case of a convicted murderer. The world is not full of absolutes.

Quoting Fallap (Reply 70):
Who knows, perhaps that aborted fetus would have grown up to be a serial killer?

Or, the person that cures Cancer.  

[Edited 2015-05-31 07:50:04]

[Edited 2015-05-31 07:51:17]

[Edited 2015-05-31 07:53:16]
When seconds count, the police are minutes away.
It’s hard to win an argument with a smart person, but it’s damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. ~B. Murray
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tommy1808
Posts: 12875
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RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 3:18 pm

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 73):
We were discussing recidivism, no?

nope, we are discussing if released murderers are more likely to murder again compared to those criminals that commit crimes where death or life w/o chance of parole are not on the table. If they are, then you have a point, if they don't than you only have a point if you advocate keeping anyone in prison forever that commits a crime, regardless of what that crime was.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 73):
Sure you can. When you cease to act as a human and decide to act as some animal in the wild, you should be treated as such. These people, through their actions, gave up any right they had to remain within society.

The whole point of human rights is that you have them for being human, regardless of what you do and what the laws are where you life.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 73):
Maybe you missed them:

nah, but you found where the problem.is yourself.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 73):
If the convicted murderer had remained in prison, he would not have committed another crime.

And if we just imprisoned everyone, all crime would be gone...
You can't imprison people for crimes they may or may not commit in the future, you can only hold people in prison if they are significantly more likely to commit further crimes that those that you will let go. Otherwise they are not treated equal by the law, and that violates your constitution just as much as mine and any other that I know.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
TristarAtLCA
Posts: 636
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:16 pm

RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Sun May 31, 2015 8:58 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 72):
Which is factually correct, both did see an increase in murder rates between 1976 and 2012.

When I posted rates rose prior to '83 and continued to do so until 02/03 did you take that as a disagreement?

My objection, as it has been from the start, is that you omitted to mention they are now dropping and have been for a statistically relevant period of time.

The rest is outside my point and is being debated by other members.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 72):
Haven´t seen much data from you yet... "

You've posted reviewable data?

I must have missed it amongst the Wiki page, the outdated guardian article, the two articles hidden behind paywalls and the Spanish academics paper you appear to have actually linked to.

Try the ONS for UK data if you wish which for some reason refuses to hyperlink here.
If you was right..................I'd agree with you
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12875
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Mon Jun 01, 2015 8:59 am

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 75):

When I posted rates rose prior to '83 and continued to do so until 02/03 did you take that as a disagreement?

I guess so, sorry for that.

Quoting TristarAtLCA (Reply 75):
My objection, as it has been from the start, is that you omitted to mention they are now dropping and have been for a statistically relevant period of time.

Well, i was looking at a specific time frame for a specific reason, but ok, i´ll bite. Did the UK outperform those other nations in terms of reduction of murder rates in the 1999-2012 time frame, so from before your 2000-2003 murder wave to the latest data UNDC has?

UK: 0.98/1.45 -32% (2012 ONS)
DE: 0.70/1.22 -43% (2012 BKA)
FR: 1.00/1.63 -39%
ES: 0.80/1.16 -32%
PT: 1.20/2.99 -60%

data from: http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=UNODC&f=tableCode%3A1

So i guess the answer is no. I don´t really see much sense in the time frame, since the only significant change in law enforcement i heard about, please correct me if i am wrong, was Portugal legalizing drug use in 2001.
Anyhow, murder rates in most of Europe reach levels where meaningful comparison gets difficult, since single incidence already have significant impact.
And either way, there is no indication in this, or US, numbers to indicate that the availability of harder punishment has any positive effect on crime prevention, if not a negative one.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
TristarAtLCA
Posts: 636
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:16 pm

RE: Death Penalty On The Line In NE

Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:16 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 76):
Did the UK outperform those other nations in terms of reduction of murder rates

No, but it's trending in the positive direction in common with most of the EU. Do we wish our performance in reducing murder rates was better? Of course, why on earth wouldn't we want it to be?

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 76):
Anyhow, murder rates in most of Europe reach levels where meaningful comparison gets difficult, since single incidence already have significant impact.

Agreed with from the beginning.

Thanks for the discussion Thomas. Have a good day.
If you was right..................I'd agree with you

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