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alberchico
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Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:52 pm

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33300543

Looks like this is it. Any thoughts from our Euro members on what's going to happen now ?
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:04 pm

Hopefully the deadline goes and finally it will end. Greece needs to default and exit the Euro zone. This last minute deals and extensions are not good for anyone. An economist said if Greece defaults it will recover in 10 years. If it stays like it is now it will be 15 years or more. The Drachma is the only way forward and best for the country. The Euro is killing Greece.

It will be a huge shock at first but like everything thats happened in Greece in its history it will survive. All unchartered waters but a lot of it is fear and speculation.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:09 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 1):

   Quick crash and then steady rise from the bottom is much better than the prolonged torture Greece is going through right now. It's time to put end to this madness, a grexit would have a good healthy impact on the politics of the entire EU zone.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
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Aesma
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:15 pm

This has been going on in slow motion for years so it's very difficult to grasp.

I think the referendum is a good idea, I heard Germany didn't think so but can't find that info now, I hope it isn't true.
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:27 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 2):
Quick crash and then steady rise from the bottom is much better than the prolonged torture Greece is going through right now. It's time to put end to this madness, a grexit would have a good healthy impact on the politics of the entire EU zone.

To be honest I have wanted Greece to remain in the Euro but recently its just got to the stage where enough is enough and I honestly feel its the best for the people in the long run and my Family and friends. We have been discussing it a lot the last number of weeks and many have resigned themselves to the fact its end game. Its just not working. I just hope they dont find a way to prolong it anymore.

I also think that once Greece leaves the Euro it will be good for the Euro after the dust settles and it will be stronger. It may be a case of hurt pride by Greece making history both with the IMF and the Eurozone but the sun will still rise the next day and they will be even more attractive as a tourist destination due to it being so cheap.

Just like when a company or individual goes bankrupt sometimes its the only choice to breathe again.

And before someone starts to link EU membership to the Eurozone currency its seperate so Greece will not be leaving the EU just the single currency. Just like all EU members are not Eurozone members.
 
AR385
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:28 pm

From what I read a run on the banks has already started, only somewhat stopped by the fact it is the weekend but hundreds of ATMs in major cities had 15-20 people long lines in the middle of the night Friday (3AM...) and most of the ATMs in those cities were empty by Saturday noon. Many banks´websites are down or nonresponsive...

Once this starts to occurr, there´s no going back. Greece will exit the Euro, referendum or not, this coming week.
 
Fabo
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:31 pm

The point of no return has been passed sometime last year, in my personal opinion.

I think it's best for all of us now accept that Greece is toast and work towards solving the problem, instead of just prolonging it.
Germany would like Greece to man up and start doing something with itself, but that isn't going to happen anymore. It's time to cut the ties and let Greece make of itself what it is.
The light at the end of tunnel turned out to be a lighted sing saying NO EXIT
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:43 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 5):
From what I read a run on the banks has already started, only somewhat stopped by the fact it is the weekend but hundreds of ATMs in major cities had 15-20 people long lines in the middle of the night Friday (3AM...) and most of the ATMs in those cities were empty by Saturday noon. Many banks´websites are down or nonresponsive...

All ATMs in the areas where my relatives and friends live were still working and dispensing cash. Dont let media hype give you a distorted picture. Im getting real feedback live and a few of my mates are out in Athens at TGI Fridays and none had issues getting money this evening. Some ATMs did run out and because its the weekend were not replenished so its not what one would call a run on the banks.... yet. Other ATMs down the street were used instead.Some historically busy areas and ATMs had issues but that can happen on a normal weekend.

To be honest if anything is going to happen it will be like flicking an off switch so people will wake up and all banks closed and ATMS closed.
 
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pu
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:50 pm

Quoting alberchico (Thread starter):
what's going to happen now ?

1 - Greece will get more money. The German desperation here is not yet exhausted.

2 - Then, after the 9th or 10th final, final agreement is again broken, a Grexit.

3 - Greece returns to what it's always been: (polite description of modern Greece goes here).

4 - EU exits become a more viable option anytime there is disagreement or a right wing party in power






Pu.
 
Pyrex
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:53 pm

Good riddance. Sick and tired of the Greeks trying to extort everyone. They are like a guy who doused himself and the floor in gasoline and is threatening to take everyone down with them if they don't have all their needs met. Perhaps they overestimated their own importance.

As for the people trying to pin the fault of this on the Euro - stop being so ridiculous. Many countries have currencies they have no control over (mostly the USD) and don't get themselves in this mess. If it weren't for the Euro, responsible Greek people (the ones who saved) would have had their life savings wiped out by inflation and devaluation (as they are likely to have now, if they weren't smart enough to get their money out). A currency is something far too important to leave in the hands of any politician (or any other government employee).

Quoting Fabo (Reply 6):
Germany would like Greece to man up and start doing something with itself, but that isn't going to happen anymore. It's time to cut the ties and let Greece make of itself what it is.

Esactly. Germany is just like a relative that keeps enabling a junkie and giving them cash for them to throw away. At some point it is time to just let it go.
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:56 pm

Quoting Pyrex (Reply 9):
Good riddance. Sick and tired of the Greeks trying to extort everyone. They are like a guy who doused himself and the floor in gasoline and is threatening to take everyone down with them if they don't have all their needs met. Perhaps they overestimated their own importance.

Was wondering when the troll would surface ! Do you ever conduct yourself without the anger and hate in your posts? You deliberately constantly try to offend and spout flame bait . Go troll somewhere else .
 
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Braybuddy
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:13 pm

At this stage it's better for everyone that Greece exits the eurozone. While there are faults on all sides, the present Greek government comes across as a bunch of amateurs who promised something they couldn't possibly deliver (ie end to austerity) and who lack the negotiating skills to pull-off any sort of face-saving deal.

You can't really afford to call the shots when you're up to your neck in debt, which is what they want to do.
 
Pyrex
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:14 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 10):

Was wondering when the troll would surface ! Do you ever conduct yourself without the anger and hate in your posts? You deliberately constantly try to offend and spout flame bait . Go troll somewhere else .

Portugal faced many of the same problems that Greece faced around 2011. We took aid from the EU as well, however we did the necessary cuts to government deficits, liberalized portions of the labor market, privatized most assets that needed to be privatized and got ourselves in much better shape (at a significant cost, that needed to be incurred), to the extent we are now actually growing (albeit barely). During that exact same time, the Greeks took the cash, promised to make changes and did exactly nothing. On top of that, during the past few months, they have been trying to drag us down into their problems, repeatedly trying to portray their fight as one of Southern Europe against the evil, imperialistic Northern Europeans who kept fedding them - guess what, Portugal is not Greece and (fortunately) will never be, so stop trying to drag us down into your mess, as we do not want to be lumped into the same bag as you.
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bennett123
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:17 pm

One point that I do not follow.

They have a deal on the table, with a referendum on 5th July, but I thought they needed the next EU tranche on 30th June to pay IMF.

1. Will they have the money to pay IMF on 30th June.

2. What if the referendum says no. How soon will they know the result.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:21 pm

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 11):
Greek government comes across as a bunch of amateurs who promised something they couldn't possibly deliver (ie end to austerity) and who lack the negotiating skills to pull-off any sort of face-saving deal.

To be honest they have done the decent thing and called a referendum. Thats democracy. They offered certain concessions and they were not enough so time to just default and leave. At least for the first time in years the Greek electorate can choose their fate on this specific issue. If they vote to reject it then they have to accept whatever follows. They can't blame Alex as he has given them the ultimate choice. So in the end maybe the current government will deliver what previous ones couldnt and put Greece back into a currency that is realistic based on its circumstances.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:23 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 1):
The Euro is killing Greece.

I think it's more a case of the Greeks killing Greece, not paying taxes, excessive pensions, early retirements, black economy, they did it to themselves and they should pay. Even if they do go they should still have to pay their debts and the country has to become fiscally responsible.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:26 pm

Quoting Pyrex (Reply 12):
Portugal is not Greece and (fortunately) will never be, so stop trying to drag us down into your mess, as we do not want to be lumped into the same bag as you.

Not what my Portuguese friends say so YOU do not represent the whole of Portugal including some that read your aggressive posts and want to be distanced from them   I am thankful for their PMs.

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 13):
One point that I do not follow.

Lots of unchartered waters so until the deadline passes on the 30th June no one knows what will happen. Anything is possible.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:28 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 15):
not paying taxes,

All my Family and friends pay taxes. Its a myth that all Greeks do not pay taxes.

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 15):
excessive pensions

How much does the average Greek get on state pension?
 
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Braybuddy
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:31 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 14):
To be honest they have done the decent thing and called a referendum. Thats democracy.

There are eighteen other countries in the eurozone, who have had their patience tested by Mr Tsipras and Mr Varoufakis, who have a responsibility to their electorates. That's also democracy.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:32 pm

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 11):
You can't really afford to call the shots when you're up to your neck in debt, which is what they want to do.

When you owe the bank 10000, it's your problem, when you owe the bank a million, it's the bank's problem. Greece owes 340 billions. If they default, it will be a significant blow to the Eurozone economy. It would cost 40 billions to France, for example, or 2% of our GNP.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
aloges
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:37 pm

Does this mean the last of the privately held Greek debt has been socialised?

[Edited 2015-06-27 15:40:07]
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:38 pm

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 18):
There are eighteen other countries in the eurozone, who have had their patience tested by Mr Tsipras and Mr Varoufakis, who have a responsibility to their electorates. That's also democracy.

And you can't be that naive to not know the games that have been played by all involved. No one has clean hands if in doubt do some research on loans to Greece and what conditions were attached to them with regards contracts and also bribes. You have no doubt read numerous threads over the last few years where myself and other members have posted the facts. Go back on some older threads and maybe get a more balanced view on what went on.
 
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Braybuddy
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:39 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 19):
When you owe the bank 10000, it's your problem, when you owe the bank a million, it's the bank's problem. Greece owes 340 billions. If they default, it will be a significant blow to the Eurozone economy. It would cost 40 billions to France, for example, or 2% of our GNP

It's generally accepted that most, if not all, of that money will never be repaid anyway, so there's no reason at all to give into the Greek government's demands.

It's all very sad for the Greek people, but the problem lies with successive Greek governments, and the EU for allowing Greece to join the eurozone without any questions asked.
 
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Braybuddy
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:42 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 21):
You have no doubt read numerous threads over the last few years where myself and other members have posted the facts. Go back on some older threads and maybe get a more balanced view on what went on.

If you read my original post, you'll find:

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 11):
While there are faults on all sides

 
 
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mercure1
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:49 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 1):
The Euro is killing Greece.

The Greeks are killing Greece.

Decades of economic mismanagement built on a pile of endless debt to fund inefficiency and a 20th century system in a 21st century world is what has killed Greece.

Going to the Drachma really wont accomplish much in the long run if these bad habits and policies remain the same.
At some point the Drachma will be underwater itself with not enough to go around and support such bad ways. Go back to the days of massive inflation, etc.
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:52 pm

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 22):
and the EU for allowing Greece to join the eurozone without any questions asked.

Indeed the rush to get Greece to join lead to a ''dont ask dont tell'' policy. There is no doubt that years of corrupt governments lead to whats happening now but they were assisted by many thoughout the Eurozone so no one should be on their high horse about morality and decency. They were all part of the game and it went bust.

For your everyday citizen who paid their taxes and tried to live a decent life its sad. Young people taking their own lives and pensioners selling their prescriptions to eat. Its certainly time to call it a day and start from the bottom and eventually get out of the situation that exists now. People warned that the above would happen if Greece goes back to the Drachma but its happening now in the Euro.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:56 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 17):

All my Family and friends pay taxes.

I'm sure they do  

If all you family and friends were Norwegian then I would believe you.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:57 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 24):
Going to the Drachma really wont accomplish much in the long run if these bad habits and policies remain the same.
At some point the Drachma will be underwater itself with not enough to go around and support such bad ways. Go back to the days of massive inflation, etc.

Even respected Economists have said going back to the Drachma will make Greek exports a lot cheaper and more attractive for tourism. Seeing as those are main areas of the economy then it seems it will be better in the long run than staying in a currency that is not fit for the country. A respected Turkish businessman who has large investments and trade with Greece was on Greek TV this evening saying exactly that.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:59 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 15):
excessive pensions
Quoting OA260 (Reply 17):
How much does the average Greek get on state pension?

Still working it out maybe? Whats excessive? How much?

-----

People were saying this back in 2012 :

Whether you should follow a particular political or economic policy depends very much on the costs and benefits of following said political or economic policy. If the costs are higher than the benefits then of course you shouldn’t be doing it: this is just standard logic. We can go further too. If you’ve got two and only two unpalatable options then you should go for the one that has the least costs, is the least painful. Which is why Greece should default altogether on its debts and leave the euro.

The standard mainstream solution for a country with Greece’s problems is exactly that: if the debt is too much to pay then don’t pay it. Better that some lenders lose their money than an entire population get screwed down into poverty to pay it back. That might not be quite fair on the lenders but tough: people before profit. And this has at least been partially done with the private sector holders of Greece’s debt all taking a 70% haircut last month.

It’s the second part of the standard solution (and yes, this is the entirely standard solution, the sort of thing the IMF recommends) is to devalue the currency. For if you don’t you’ve got to have years, decades even, of grinding austerity to try to regain economic competitiveness. But, of course, being in the euro, Greece cannot do this. So Greece must leave the euro.

From the other side the standard objection is that Greece is still running a large budget deficit. This means that a default cannot be done for the government will still need to borrow money just to pay the police and the pensions. So while in theory a default and devaluation would be better than grinding austerity it just cannot be one. But this is to miss the point that Felix Salmon makes:

Once you strip out Greece’s debt payments, the country’s primary deficit is pretty modest — just 1% of GDP or so.

There are two different budget deficits. The one where we include all the interest that has to be paid and the one where we don’t that latter being the primary deficit. So, with a default then the interest won’t be paid. And the Greek Government will then have to cut spending (or raise taxes) by 1% of GDP because they cannot borrow any more. The point here being that this is less cuts than they’re already being told they have to do.

Balancing the budget without having to pay the interest will be easier than what they’re being told they have to do to stay inside the euro. And devaluation will make recovery a great deal easier than decades of internal austerity.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...should-default-and-leave-the-euro/

[Edited 2015-06-27 16:09:20]
 
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mercure1
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:40 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 27):
Even respected Economists have said going back to the Drachma will make Greek exports a lot cheaper and more attractive for tourism.

Yes indeed in the short term. But whether 5, 10 or 20 years, the point will come when a weak currency that government can print at will again cause things to spiral out of control even worse.

The point is Greece needs a hard reset. It cannot continue business it has the last many decades. It needs massive reform from top to bottom economically. Being a small nation, if anything Greece has the potential to have a dynamic and bright economy, but it will take the will to change from the lowest man on the street to top government politician.
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L410Turbolet
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:46 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 17):

How much does the average Greek get on state pension?

Obviously too much given the performance of Greek economy?
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:54 pm

Quoting L410tURBOLET (Reply 30):
Obviously too much given the performance of Greek economy?

We keep on hearing these comments about no one paying taxes and excessive pensions but when pressed on facts and figures people disappear  
 
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mercure1
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:39 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 31):
We keep on hearing these comments about no one paying taxes and excessive pensions but when pressed on facts and figures people disappear
Taxes:

Of all the challenges Greece has faced in recent years, prodding its citizens to pay their taxes has been one of the most difficult.
Billions more in taxes are owed on never-reported revenue from Greece’s vast underground economy, which was estimated before the crisis to equal more than a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product.
Tax rates in Greece are broadly in line with those elsewhere in Europe. But Greeks have a widespread aversion to paying what they owe the state, an attitude often blamed on cultural and historical forces.


Tax collection rate:
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/WO-AV568_GKTAX_16U_20150224190305.jpg

http://goo.gl/LTU26s


Pensions:

The Greek pension system relies heavily on state expenditure, with not enough withholding contributions from employees and employers, economists say.
This deficit imbalance -- which existed prior to the 2009 Greek debt crisis -- has worsened during the six subsequent years of recession and painful austerity, during which time the unemployment rate spiked from 9.5 percent to 26.6 percent and gross domestic product (GDP) was slashed by a quarter.
Greece currently has a total of 2.6 million pensioners and 1.2 million people unemployed, with a total workforce of 3.5 million people. Its citizens are also among the oldest in Europe; around 20.5 percent of Greeks are over 65 years old.
According to the OECD, Greece spent 13 percent of its GDP on public expenditure on pensions. That compared with an OECD average of 6.8 percent. Since 2009, early retirement of those younger than age 58 has risen 14 percent in the private sector but by 48 percent in the public sector.
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Pyrex
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:57 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 27):
Greek exports

Such as?
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prebennorholm
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:19 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 17):
All my Family and friends pay taxes. Its a myth that all Greeks do not pay taxes.
Quoting OA260 (Reply 17):
How much does the average Greek get on state pension?

That's not the issue.

The problem is that Greece over 15 years has borrowed and borrowed more and more money to pay pensions and other public expenses because they didn't collect anywhere near the taxes needed to pay the expenses.

And now, after 15 years, the lenders dare so say: "We will lend you even more money, but on the condition that you prepare a plan to improve the imbalance. We deliver some ideas, but if you have better ideas, please tell us."

The result is a new referendum among irrelevant participants. That referendum has been held, and the result was 18 yes and one no. 18 Eurozone countries against the Greek government.

I don't think many Greeks really know what this referendum is all about. If they wote no, and the Greek government still doesn't do anything to improve the imbalance, then they will have their pensions and salaries paid in Drachma, which will immediately become worthless due to hyperinflation.

It won't be anything like 10-20-30% reduced pensions and increased VAT or such. It will be a lot more serious, depending on what messures the government take, or does not take. All imported goods will get dramatically increased prices.

The first ruling will be restictions on exchanging Drachma to other currencies.

I am not impressed by the intelligence of the Greek people, and in particular the Greek government, which was elected by the Greek people. They have already done a lot of harm to themselves, For instance:

Tourism is a substantial net income for Greece. When this new election next Sunday ws aired in the local press up here, then the general oppinion was that there will be riots when the Greek people finally discovers what they had been voting about. Better not make any holiday in Greece. Better put Greece (and Tunesia) on the no-fly-zone list, at least this year and until things improve.

It won't eliminate tourism in Greece. But it will reduce it. Greece doesn't need a long list of bankruptcies in the tourist industry. The opposite is what is needed.
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:18 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 32):
Taxes:

They raised another EUR1 billion last year in tax revenue but its still not enough and they are not tough enough on the elite who have hidden billions. The normal PAYE worker who has their taxes deducted at source are not to blame. Two thirds of the Greek work force are taxed this way. The problem lays with the contractors,big companies etc.. who fiddle their returns. They need to go after them more aggressively. Whilst there have been changes to the way taxes are collected its not gone nearly far enough.

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 34):
Tourism is a substantial net income for Greece. When this new election next Sunday ws aired in the local press up here, then the general oppinion was that there will be riots when the Greek people finally discovers what they had been voting about. Better not make any holiday in Greece. Better put Greece (and Tunesia) on the no-fly-zone list, at least this year and until things improve.

It won't eliminate tourism in Greece. But it will reduce it. Greece doesn't need a long list of bankruptcies in the tourist industry. The opposite is what is needed.

There were riots during the last number of years of this crisis and people said it would harm tourism and it didnt. People see Greece as a safe destination despite its economic issues. Riots when they happen are not in main tourist areas such as the Islands. Even in Athens they are contained to a small area of the city. I have been there when there have been riots and three streets away everything is normal. To compare to Tunisia is naive and inappropriate. Totally different situation and in fact this weekend has seen a large number changing their plans to opt for Greece.

After a Euro exit Greece will be the most attractive place to take a holiday in the all of the Med. I remember the days of the Drachma in the 80's/90's and for tourism it was great changing from STG and other strong currencies.
 
kaitak
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RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:55 am

The BBC is reporting that the ECB (European Central Bank) will end its lifeline to Greek banks from today; the banks can't function without this, so it should be expected that tomorrow will be a bank holiday in Greece (otherwise, there will be runs on banks) and capital controls will be introduced.

I have a some sympathy for the Greek people; recalling our own economic nadir four or five years ago, it's a depressing feeling when one's country is in dire economic straits, but Ireland fought back and did the necessary to recover. Now it has (though still some way to go); Greece never did. Now, its new leadership has announced a referendum. I would love to have been a fly on the wall in the meeting at which this was decided. What did they think this would achieve?

Default on Tuesday now appears inevitable; I'm not familiar enough with the Eurozone rules to say if that automatically means exiting the Eurozone, but it has to be said that the chances of the Greek electorate voting yes next Saturday is only slightly greater than a heavy fall of snow in central Athens this week (especially when the govt is pushing for a "no" vote).

We are in uncharted territory here; I really fear for what happens next. If (as seems possible) civil society breaks down, then what? Will the EU intervene; will the Greek military impose martial law? Will Turkey take advantage of Greece's position and reclaim disputed territory? There are just so many areas of doubt and confusion. Could it have been different? If Greece did what Ireland did, could it have escaped this?
 
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pvjin
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Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:52 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:01 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 34):
Tourism is a substantial net income for Greece. When this new election next Sunday ws aired in the local press up here, then the general oppinion was that there will be riots when the Greek people finally discovers what they had been voting about. Better not make any holiday in Greece. Better put Greece (and Tunesia) on the no-fly-zone list, at least this year and until things improve.

It won't eliminate tourism in Greece. But it will reduce it. Greece doesn't need a long list of bankruptcies in the tourist industry. The opposite is what is needed.

Some rioting in Athens and other big cities wouldn't really mean any real danger to tourists, Greece isn't like the countries on the other side of the Mediterranean.

Personally I would be more worried of traveling to Turkey. The country is ruled by Erdogan, a dictatorish religious zealot who certainly sympathizes with ISIS and helps their fighters to cross the border to Syria. I wouldn't be any surprised if something like what happened in Tunisia happened in Turkey within next year or two.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
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OA260
Posts: 24900
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:05 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 36):
I have a some sympathy for the Greek people; recalling our own economic nadir four or five years ago, it's a depressing feeling when one's country is in dire economic straits, but Ireland fought back and did the necessary to recover. Now it has (though still some way to go);

But compared to Greece Ireland was not in crisis. I know lots of jobs were lost and people had to leave the country and living here I know more than most what happened in Ireland. At least in Ireland unemployed got social welfare and a free medical card. Go to Greece and its nothing like that. Ireland being a small 26 county area to control it was so much easier. Also its trade links with the UK and other Eurozone members and the USA it was in a much better position to get out of the mess. If only the situation was on a scale of Ireland then it would be easy but its 1000 times worse.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 36):
Will Turkey take advantage of Greece's position and reclaim disputed territory?

Wont happen Greece is a NATO and EU member and thus I can't see that scenario.

---

All unchartered waters and who knows what deals still remain in the background. Its not over until we wake up and the TV reports that Greece has left the Eurozone.
 
lewis
Posts: 3586
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 1999 5:41 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:55 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 26):

A significant (if not the majority) of employees in Greece are on pay as you earn. Tax is withheld from monthly salaries. Nice try, but do try again.
 
lewis
Posts: 3586
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 1999 5:41 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:00 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 36):

Turkey reclaiming disputed territory? Which part of Greece was ever part of Turkey to be "REclaimed"? Apart from a couple of dry rocks what other areas are being disputed? Just curious....
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:01 am

If Greece exits the Eurozone, I wonder if the Euro won't stay anyway, with lots of people, shops etc., refusing to accept the new currency. This wouldn't help the black market situation one bit.

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 22):
It's generally accepted that most, if not all, of that money will never be repaid anyway, so there's no reason at all to give into the Greek government's demands.

Yet Greece has been servicing that debt all this time, not helping the situation at all. If really nobody thought they would repay, then the default should have happened years ago, instead of this slow torture. In my opinion many still believed at least part of the debt would be paid, or alternatively they believed it was better to squeeze Greece a few more years, then take the default's blow when the global economy would be better. Very cynical.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
lewis
Posts: 3586
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 1999 5:41 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:02 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 32):

Nice graph there. I would like to see what the numbers look like before the crisis hit. As of now I have unemployed friends (for years) who are being asked to pay income taxes based on previous years income. Of course they can't and won't pay. Note that unemployment is over 25% and the current tax system asks for taxes from unemployed citizens. A lot of this remains uncollected.
 
AR385
Posts: 6936
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:05 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 29):
Yes indeed in the short term. But whether 5, 10 or 20 years, the point will come when a weak currency that government can print at will again cause things to spiral out of control even worse.

Who cares about 5,10, 20 years when there is no food on the table and in the Winter you have to burn wood (furniture) to keep warm? You do know what they say about the long term right? 10, 20 years? Really? Comme on

Quoting kaitak (Reply 36):
We are in uncharted territory here; I really fear for what happens next. If (as seems possible) civil society breaks down, then what? Will the EU intervene

Society will not break down. The EU will not intervene. It´s not an apocalypse.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 36):
will the Greek military impose martial law?

Doubtful.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 36):
Will Turkey take advantage of Greece's position and reclaim disputed territory?

No.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 36):
There are just so many areas of doubt and confusion.

None whatsoever, really.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 36):
Could it have been different? If Greece did what Ireland did, could it have escaped this?

Since the moment the Euro was introduced and Greece allowed to participate, this was a foregone conclusion. If anything, it should have happened sooner. The hurt, pain, and humiliation the Greeks have been subjected to, both by Brussels in their *cough* bank *cough* "rescue plans" and their own incompetent governments ought to have ended long ago.

[Edited 2015-06-28 04:07:30]
 
lewis
Posts: 3586
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 1999 5:41 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:05 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 37):

Been vacationing for two weeks now. Islands are buzzing as usual. Tourists do not seem bothered by anything. Restaurants and bars full of foreign visitors. Sun is still shining, with few cloudy surprises. Business as usual.
 
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OA260
Posts: 24900
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:37 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 41):
If Greece exits the Eurozone, I wonder if the Euro won't stay anyway, with lots of people, shops etc., refusing to accept the new currency. This wouldn't help the black market situation one bit.

Well it will be like Croatia after leaving Yugoslavia. They used the DM along side there own currency and both were used.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 46):
Or the fact that the EU (Germany) let them into the Eurozone, fully knowing Greece was not fit to join. Fully knowing they had altered the statistics. Mario, are you there?

Well he forgets those facts   Very smart !

---

An article that many would do well to read and remember !


In Greek crisis, Germany should learn from its fiscal past

''Fortunately for Germany, its own creditors took quite a different stance after World War II. In the London Debt Agreement of 1953, the 20 nations — including Greece — that had loaned money to Germany during the pre-Nazi Weimar Republic and in the years since 1945 agreed to reduce West Germany’s debts by half. Moreover, they agreed that its repayments could not come out of the government’s spending but only and explicitly from export income. They further agreed to undervalue the German mark, so that German export income could grow. By the consent of all parties, the London Agreement, and subsequent modifications, were crafted in proceedings that made West Germany an equal party to its creditors: It could, and sometimes did, reject the creditors’ terms and insist on new negotiations.''

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...-11e4-a7c2-03d37af98440_story.html

[Edited 2015-06-28 04:56:17]
 
lewis
Posts: 3586
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 1999 5:41 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:33 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 45):

Don't remind people hard historical facts. There are many things that some countries in the north are forgetting to tell their people. Their arrogance and cockiness comes from that fact, some nations do falsely believe that their current success was self created. A joke really.
 
AR385
Posts: 6936
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:38 pm

Well. Apparently the ECB has backtracked:

http://internacional.elpais.com/inte.../actualidad/1435483721_645607.html

Is an in extremis deal in the works as we speak?
 
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TK105
Posts: 612
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2013 4:40 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:02 pm

I think Greece needs to switch to Drachma immediately and liberate itself from Eurozone where Greece State's control is minimal. Next step should be to industrialisation of the country in the long run, as tourism and agriculture is no more enough for Greece. Turkey (also region) needs an economically strong Greece to sustain its growth.

As a person who used to travel a lot in northern part of Greece in the past, I did not see a single factory along Egnatia-Odos Motorway which was built by EU funds. Once you pass the Turkish Border, on the contrary you see thousands of factories and hundreds of Industrial Zones (all the way to Ankara). Industrialisation and value adding is the way out for Greece.
The future is in the skies.
 
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par13del
Posts: 10446
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:51 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 3):
I think the referendum is a good idea, I heard Germany didn't think so but can't find that info now, I hope it isn't true.

I will put it down to the short notice making it difficult to initiate a campaign to influence the outcome versus thinking that the masses are not up to date enough to be trusted to make a decision.

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 18):
Quoting OA260 (Reply 14):
To be honest they have done the decent thing and called a referendum. Thats democracy.

There are eighteen other countries in the eurozone, who have had their patience tested by Mr Tsipras and Mr Varoufakis, who have a responsibility to their electorates. That's also democracy.

Does this mean you do not think they should have a vote in something that has already and will continue to shape the lives of their children and grandchildren for decades to come?
Ireland had two referendums in short order on EU treaties, one where the outcome was said to have been by an uninformed public, the other an informed public, should the Greeks not have the same chance?
Yes they had an election and the government who is presently in power was elected because they said they would look at changing the terms of their financial situation.

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 34):
The result is a new referendum among irrelevant participants.

The citizens of Greece will be paying whatever prices is charged now and in the future whether they stay in the EU zone or not, the real question is did the politicians who placed them in the situation for which you claim they are irrelevant really have the mandate to do so? Winning an election does not equal a mandate to do anything you want to do, including things that were never discussed during elections.

In most circles it is agreed that Greece should not have been accepted the way they were, whether the books were cooked or not apparently due diligence was not done, so how much of what took place prior and now is about pride?
If Greece was allowed a reset / suspension years ago would the situation have been different, from this far looking in it appears to have been a case of attempting to fix a wrong while not fully understanding the root cause.
If Greece has a massive underground economy in comparison to the other countries in the EU, who is in a better position to restrict / regulate / change it, the Greeks under supervision or the Greeks being told to implement solutions created by countries who have little to no recent experience, if it is deemed cultural - as I see in a lot of articles - how can foreigners hope to simply say do this and the people will fall in line, that is creating a situation where the citizens will see their government being manipulated by foreign powers.
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