Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 8
 
NAV30
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:16 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 3:03 pm

For my sins, I got myself an economics degree and spent a lot of my life dealing in international finance.

Retired now - and almost GLAD that no-one is going to ring me at six o'clock tomorrow morning and ask me to help sort THIS problem out!  

Try as I might, I can't readily see ANY solution that would work, in the short term anyway. For all practical purposes, Greece is going to be 'flat broke' within a couple of days; and a number of other 'European Union' countries are likely to follow shortly. There is a very real prospect that the 'European Union' may effectively collapse within weeks............

Glad that I moved to Australia all those years back, really. Our 'heavy' industry isn't all that hot but we still have plenty of sheep and cattle, at least we won't go hungry if the European Union (and maybe the rest of the world) sinks into depression..........  

[Edited 2015-06-28 08:10:42]
 
User avatar
Braybuddy
Posts: 6821
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:14 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 4:15 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 49):
Does this mean you do not think they should have a vote in something that has already and will continue to shape the lives of their children and grandchildren for decades to come?

Where did I say, or imply that? I was merely saying that Greece is not the only democracy in the EU. Greece can do what it wants, but shouldn't expect other countries to fund doing whatever it wants.

Quoting par13del (Reply 49):
Ireland had two referendums in short order on EU treaties, one where the outcome was said to have been by an uninformed public, the other an informed public, should the Greeks not have the same chance?

Again, where did I say, or imply that?
 
LJ
Posts: 5449
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 4:43 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 37):
Some rioting in Athens and other big cities wouldn't really mean any real danger to tourists, Greece isn't like the countries on the other side of the Mediterranean.

It will as these images will appear on TV and perception will be highly negative. The fact that you will see nothing on the island of Kos is for many not relevant. However, the Greek islands have another problem which jeopordises its image.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 37):
Personally I would be more worried of traveling to Turkey. The country is ruled by Erdogan, a dictatorish religious zealot who certainly sympathizes with ISIS and helps their fighters to cross the border to Syria. I wouldn't be any surprised if something like what happened in Tunisia happened in Turkey within next year or two.

Odly, untill such an events happens in Turkey, you won't see tourism moving to Greece. However, it's true that tourism to Turkey (at least from The Netherlands) isn't increasing as much as it used to (Greece is becoming much more popular this year).

Quoting par13del (Reply 49):

The citizens of Greece will be paying whatever prices is charged now and in the future whether they stay in the EU zone or not

It's not about staying in the EU or not, It's only the possible exit out of the Euro and its mechanism. I doubt that Greece wants to go out of the EU as they'll get a lot of EUR from being in the EUR (and those EUR will remain coming in to Greece regardsless on what happens).
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4983
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:10 pm

A nation that only collects half of the taxes due it, is a failed system.

According to the OECD, Greece losses 6% or more of its GDP annually to tax evasion, with over €72bn uncollected over the last few years.

Imagine if Athens could collect 90%+ of what it was owed as European peers? There would be no debt problem today.
mercure f-wtcc
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10446
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:33 pm

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 51):
I was merely saying that Greece is not the only democracy in the EU. Greece can do what it wants, but shouldn't expect other countries to fund doing whatever it wants.
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 51):
Again, where did I say, or imply that?

Hence the question, since your response also mentioned patience being tested it's intent was not clear to me, so rather than infer I asked the question.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 53):
According to the OECD, Greece losses 6% or more of its GDP annually to tax evasion, with over €72bn uncollected over the last few years.

Tax evasion is now the new mantra, one wonders if it was a priority then as it is now if globalization would have ever taken root, imagine the companies who would have chosen not to undertake the regulations that are being put in place today.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 53):
Imagine if Athens could collect 90%+ of what it was owed as European peers? There would be no debt problem today.

The big question is how does the international community get that done, by themselves or with the assistance of the Greeks, is it really cultural?
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:37 pm

Quoting TK105 (Reply 48):
I think Greece needs to switch to Drachma immediately and liberate itself from Eurozone where Greece State's control is minimal. Next step should be to industrialisation of the country in the long run, as tourism and agriculture is no more enough for Greece. Turkey (also region) needs an economically strong Greece to sustain its growth.

Very true they need to branch out more into other industries and being in the Drachma will enable them to compete a lot more favourably. Tourism is still and will be an important part whatever other new avenues are explored.

---

The Greek banks will be closed tomorrow as with the stock exchange.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 13591
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:45 pm

If Greece defaults, then it loses access to money for years. Without money, you can't invest in anything, certainly not in industry.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
kaitak
Posts: 9973
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:19 pm

I don't see what going back to the Drachma will solve? OK, they may not have a choice, but what will the Drachma be worth? With nothing to "back it up", is there not a danger that Greece could face very high inflation, if not hyperinflation?
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:20 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 56):
If Greece defaults, then it loses access to money for years. Without money, you can't invest in anything, certainly not in industry.

You look for foreign companies to invest/locate there and offer deals. It wont be Greek investment.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10371
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:50 pm

I suspect many foreign investors will be wary about investing in a non Euro Greece.

Also not sure what type of deals can be offered. State assistance could be a problem, both due to EU rules, and shortage of state funds to finance any assistance.
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4983
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:01 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 56):

If Greece defaults, then it loses access to money for years. Without money, you can't invest in anything, certainly not in industry.

  

Look at Argentina. Locked out of capital markets since its 2001 default, shrinking economy, high inflation as government prints weakening currency, huge public debt, capital controls with official and unofficial exchange rates.. Things are so bad, they stopped publishing some economic figures even.
mercure f-wtcc
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24989
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:06 pm

It should be interesting to see how this works out. Right now Greece doesn't want to cut pensions etc. Once it bails out ot the Euro it can pay pensions in full, but it will be with worthless currency. Access to any product not produced in Greece will be incredibly expensive. For instance, it's going to be hard to see how they will get access to energy. The external world is going to want to be paid in hard currency yet it will be difficult to earn hard currency.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:07 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 59):
Also not sure what type of deals can be offered.

They can attract companies with low corporation tax and a cheap work force. All of which would be a lot more attractive as a foreign company in a post Euro economy.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24964
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:13 pm

Everything goes back to taxation and revenue.

The Greek state simply does not collect what is due to it. Whether this is because of inept government controls or blatant nationwide tax evasion can be debated, but if the government collected what it should there hardly would be a debt issue today. Matter of fact, the nation would be running a handy surplus.

As far as returning to the Drachma, sure in the short run it would give Greece a boost but in the long run it would return to flirt with disaster particularly if the underlying system is not fixed.

Just printing your own money is not the answer as many nations have painfully discovered. Sure Greek exports become cheaper, but imports become more expensive. Greece is a nation that has a trade-imbalance as it imports far more than it could possibly export. In 2014 for example 47% of imports were oil and chemicals alone.

Without major economic structural changes all that will happen with the Drachma is that overtime it will start to slip in value, inflation takes off and a deeper and deeper new national disaster erupts.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
signol
Posts: 2652
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2007 5:18 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:31 pm

What chance they could "officially" exit the eurozone, but "unofficially" continue using it, as Montenegro does, and several countries do with the dollar?

signol
Flights booked: NWI-AMS-JNB-DUR, JNB-AMS-NWI
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10446
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:48 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 57):
I don't see what going back to the Drachma will solve? OK, they may not have a choice, but what will the Drachma be worth? With nothing to "back it up", is there not a danger that Greece could face very high inflation, if not hyperinflation?

At present as a user of the Euro they are limited to the actions and dictates of the group, the hard measures that the international community are requesting / demanding resulted in a new government elected on the platform of slowing down and or terminating some of the demanded actions.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 60):
Look at Argentina. Locked out of capital markets since its 2001 default, shrinking economy,

Yes, look at Argentina, a major producer of oil who even in the high price environment of two years ago still had problems, I think corruption is the major player there and indeed in some aspects is also at play in Greece. Citizens not paying taxes may have been their way to limit the corruption of the politicians....just a thought.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 63):
Without major economic structural changes all that will happen with the Drachma is that overtime it will start to slip in value, inflation takes off and a deeper and deeper new national disaster erupts.

If Greece exits the Euro there will be major structural changes, any foreign investor going in will be demanding leases into the stratosphere or onerous repayment options.
Imagine China would love a major foothold so close to Russia and the West.
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 13168
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:52 pm

Quoting lewis (Reply 39):

A significant (if not the majority) of employees in Greece are on pay as you earn. Tax is withheld from monthly salaries. Nice try, but do try again.

And how many of those people use contractors and services where they pay cash, and the contractor or service provider doesn't pay tax. Everyone in Greece is responsible for the mess Greece is in.
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 65):
Imagine China would love a major foothold so close to Russia and the West.

The Chinese are nervous but feel that once Greece exits the Euro and the dust settles then it will be forced to do more favourable deals with it and Chinese companies are indeed wanting to get a bigger foot hold in Greece.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10371
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:09 pm

What is preventing them lowering Corporation Tax at present.

The same with a cheap labour force.

Besides if Corporation Tax is reduced, then the govt has less money to spend.
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:18 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 68):
What is preventing them lowering Corporation Tax at present.

Nothing but with the current constant uncertainty and deadlines its very unsettling for companies. If they are out and back in the Drachma it will bring some certainty rather than constant if and when speculation.

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 68):
The same with a cheap labour force.

Now they pay in Euro after they will pay in Drachma which will bring down the cost of wages.

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 68):
Besides if Corporation Tax is reduced, then the govt has less money to spend.

Something is better than nothing and those same companies employ people who would otherwise be a liability on the state. Same as what happened in Ireland with tax breaks for companies such as Google / Ebay etc...
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4983
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:29 pm

What difference will the Drachma make if they only collect 40% of taxes the state is due?

Does not matter if they go to the dollar, peso, lira, yen, dinar, etc. Greece must fix its tax collection problem, wipe away the underground parallel economy. According to IMF the shadow economy in Greece represented estimated 24% of GDP in 2013!
mercure f-wtcc
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:46 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 70):
What difference will the Drachma make if they only collect 40% of taxes the state is due?

Does not matter if they go to the dollar, peso, lira, yen, dinar, etc. Greece must fix its tax collection problem, wipe away the underground parallel economy. According to IMF the shadow economy in Greece represented estimated 24% of GDP in 2013!

I think its been established that tax collection is an issue.   They need to go after the ones that evade tax maybe having no other choices when the Drachma comes back and no other way of funding will force them to be more aggressive with those that try to fiddle the system while the other 2 thirds of PAYE workers pay and are angry that the elite do not.
 
User avatar
Braybuddy
Posts: 6821
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:14 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:32 pm

Capital controls will be imposed, according to Tsipris:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33305019
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:57 pm

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 72):
Capital controls will be imposed, according to Tsipris:

As expected and no surprise.
 
blueflyer
Posts: 4352
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 4:17 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:07 pm

Quoting signol (Reply 64):
What chance they could "officially" exit the eurozone, but "unofficially" continue using it, as Montenegro does, and several countries do with the dollar?

None whatsoever. Greece and Montenegro have totally different objectives, hence whereas it makes sense for the latter to use the euro, it is of no help to Greece whatsoever.

If Greece leaves the eurozone, it is to regain absolute control over its currency in order to devalue it against foreign currencies (especially the euro). Devaluation makes Greek goods and services cheaper and therefore more competitive. Exports and tourism will get a significant boost, bringing into the country foreign currencies that the government can capture and use to pay off their euro loans.

Montenegro is trying to boost foreign direct investment. One of the fears of foreign investors, especially with new and less-stable countries, is devaluation, the very step that Greece is contemplating. By using the euro as opposed to its own currency, Montenegro is eliminating devaluation risks and making itself more attractive for investors.

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 72):
Capital controls will be imposed, according to Tsipris:

The Financial Times writes it has been told by Greek officials withdrawals may be limited to as little as €50 a day, which is very, very low. By comparison, Cyprus set a €300/day limit when it imposed capital controls. Then again, one set of capital controls was planned well ahead in cooperation with the ECB and the EU, the other seems improvised by a government that is having a hard time still accepting that its bluff has been called.
 
Rara
Posts: 2309
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:41 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:17 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 50):
There is a very real prospect that the 'European Union' may effectively collapse within weeks............
Quoting NAV30 (Reply 50):
Retired now - and almost GLAD that no-one is going to ring me at six o'clock tomorrow morning and ask me to help sort THIS problem out!  

No offense mate, but that doesn't really sound like an expert opinion. Sounds like one of the "experts" at my local pub to be quite honest.  


The European Union is doing just fine. If anything, the Greek crisis shows that no matter how outrageously you behave, and however irresponsibly you handle your finances, the community will not let you fall. Greece has been shown quite a remarkable degree of solidarity over the last years; and even now, the offer is on the table. The Greeks can take it or leave it, but even if they do default (and thus take billions of European taxpayer money with them) they will nonetheless remain part of the European Union.

Let's not forget that bankruptcy of the Greek state does not automatically mean that Greece will leave the Euro and return to the Drachma. No-one can force Greece out of the Euro, there are no procedures in place for such an eventuality.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:50 pm

US Treasury urges Europeans, IMF to find solution to Greece's financial woes

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has urged top European finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund to continue working together toward a "sustainable solution" to reforms in Greece and its recovery within the euro zone.

Lew spoke by phone with several top officials on Saturday, including the finance ministers of Germany and France and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, according to a readout of the call provided by the Treasury Department on Sunday.

In those calls, he said it was "important for all parties to continue to work to reach a solution, including a discussion of potential debt relief for Greece, in the run up to the July 5th referendum," according to the readout, referring to a planned vote in Greece.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...ece-treasury-idUSL2N0ZE08P20150628
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3231
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:13 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 76):

In other words: "Do better" and "You guys should probably get this fixed"  

Thanks for that, Jack Lew.
 
blueflyer
Posts: 4352
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 4:17 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:43 am

Some controls details have been released (per Bloomberg). Withdrawals limited to €60 per day, no bank-to-bank transfers and no outgoing foreign payment transactions.

As of Saturday cash withdrawals amounted to about €1 billion but "only" 500 of Greece's 7,000 ATMs were empty.
 
NAV30
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:16 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:31 am

It appears that the European Central Bank has 'turned off the money tap'....................

Banks will be closed for a week. During the week, a referendum will be held on whether the Greek government should accept or reject financial restrictions proposed by the European Union in return for continued financial support.

I can't find any details of those 'restrictions' yet, but newspaper articles are suggesting that the referendum will more or less be a vote on whether Greece should stay in the European Union, or drop out of it.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/06...as-greece-future-hangs-in-balance/

[Edited 2015-06-28 18:49:34]
 
Elite
Posts: 2309
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:31 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:39 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 75):
If anything, the Greek crisis shows that no matter how outrageously you behave, and however irresponsibly you handle your finances, the community will not let you fall.

And should this be seen as a negative or a positive?
 
Ken777
Posts: 10148
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:03 am

Quoting Pyrex (Reply 9):

Good riddance. Sick and tired of the Greeks trying to extort everyone.

From what I have read, the EU has put various demands on Greece with the loan some 5 years ago and that has basically put the country into a deep recession Now there is an effort by the EU to add more demands which would put Greece deeper into a hole.

And it seems to me that it is Germany that is trying the hardest to push them down. That's pretty queer as I cannot think of another country in Europe that received more help since the end of WW II. And. quite frankly a lot of that help has been in the form of charity of one type or another. Maybe if Germany looked a little more of the charity that they have received over the past decades they will be a bit more aggressive in actually helping Greece instead of pushing them down.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:22 am

They should let the Greek ship owners run the country. The Greek shipping industry has performed well despite the country's economic crisis. However, part of the reason for their success is the fact that they pay no taxes in Greece on profits earned outside the country, which is by far the majority of their business.

Article last March:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...face-on-tax-exempt-overseas-profit

Excerpt:

Greeks have long dominated the shipping business. The nation’s fleet, numbering 3,669 vessels in 2013, is the largest in the world, according to the annual report of the Union of Greek Shipowners, making up more than 7 percent of the Greek economy and providing 192,000 jobs in 2013.

Greece’s shipping magnates control 23 percent of the world bulk carrier fleet, according to the report, even as their home country accounts for less than 0.4 percent of the world economy.

“This is one area where Greece can be said to be a market leader on a global scale,” said Piraeus-based Nigel Bowen-Morris, a lawyer specializing in ship finance at Stephenson Harwood LLP.

Their success in one of the most global industries stands in contrast to their country’s domestic troubles, where 36 percent of the population was at risk of poverty or exclusion from social benefits at the end of 2013, according to Eurostat, the statistics agency of the European Commission.
 
NAV30
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:16 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:39 am

There is actually a fairly simple solution to the problem. Greece should leave the 'super-hard' Euro and revert to its old currency, the drachma, which it could then devalue as necessary to suit its needs - with a view to importing less and exporting more.

But that won't happen, the EU would never allow them to do any such thing...........
 
User avatar
alberchico
Topic Author
Posts: 3244
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:52 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:55 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 82):
where 36 percent of the population was at risk of poverty

Almost 40% of the population is hovering near the poverty level ? That can't be right can it ?
short summary of every jewish holiday: they tried to kill us ,we won , lets eat !
 
AR385
Posts: 6936
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:35 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 83):
But that won't happen, the EU would never allow them to do any such thing...........

The EU at this point either allows them, or gives them all the money they need NOW to stop the run on the banks that has already started.

Unless by Wednesday the EU gives them liquidity, "such a thing" is already happening. And while Greece may not be that big economically in the big scheme of things, the amount of business it has with the Balkan countries added to the perception that the Euro is a failed experiment is going to damage Europe and its pretty tepid recovery badly and soon. The risk of contagion to Romania, Bulgaria, and such is very real and very dangerous.

Spain, with unemployment over 20% and over 50% among young people, even with their "recovery" may decide once Rajoy is kicked out, that they also want out of the Euro. The Portuguese may start thinking that way. Once Greece is out, the entire Eurozone may split into two Eurozones. Those with the Euro, and those with their currencies...

This maybe unchartered water territory, but not the economic consequences of what will happen. For the entire Eurozone, not only Greece. At this point Greece is only enduring marginally more pain. The EU on the other hand is shooting themselves on the foot.

Too bad cooler heads did not prevailed.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10371
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 5:35 am

Actually not all EU countries are in the Eurozone.
 
NAV30
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:16 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 5:42 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 85):
The EU at this point either allows them, or gives them all the money they need NOW

Agree that that would be sensible, AR385. But as far as I recall, there are only two countries (the UK and Denmark) that took the trouble to agree formal 'opt-outs,' allowing them to keep their own currencies for good. Five or six other countries have not joined the Euro yet, but they are bound by treaty to adopt it at some stage.

Quoting alberchico (Reply 84):
Almost 40% of the population is hovering near the poverty level ? That can't be right can it ?

Unfortunately it IS right, alberchico - quite a few Eurozone countries have very high levels of poverty and unemployment. That situation is also linked to the problem of the Euro - as a currency, it is far too 'hard' for the poorer European countries.
 
AR385
Posts: 6936
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 5:58 am

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 86):
Actually not all EU countries are in the Eurozone.

Yes. Thank you.   While it may slip sometimes in my posts I´m aware of the distinction. However, when it hits the fan, it will matter not who in the EU also forms part of the Eurozone.

Some experts are talking about the immediate doubling for the risk prime rate of the countries at the periphery of Greece. While I think a doubling is too huge a maginitude, a big increase is surely to be expected. That will simply wipe out the gains these economies have made over the years.

http://internacional.elpais.com/inte.../actualidad/1435519467_347338.html
 
LJ
Posts: 5449
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 6:13 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 79):
I can't find any details of those 'restrictions' yet, but newspaper articles are suggesting that the referendum will more or less be a vote on whether Greece should stay in the European Union, or drop out of it.

You do know that if they leave the EU they also loose the billions of EUR which they'll be getting from the EU (which will become more as Greece will ned more developement)? They can vote to leave the EYR, but I doubt many people in Greece will vote for leaving the EU. They're not stupid.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 85):
Spain, with unemployment over 20% and over 50% among young people, even with their "recovery" may decide once Rajoy is kicked out, that they also want out of the Euro. The Portuguese may start thinking that way. Once Greece is out, the entire Eurozone may split into two Eurozones. Those with the Euro, and those with their currencies...

However, they may also see what will happens when a country leaves and decide that they don't want to eb in that situation. Moreover, part of the problem is that the EU can't lower Greece's debt without Spain, Portugal and Italy start complaining and wanting the same treatement. Therefore, they sacrifice Greece as the Greek "problem" is small compared to the potential issues with Spain and Italy. In the end it's all poltics where the ordinary Greek will pay the price for this.
 
AR385
Posts: 6936
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 6:38 am

Quoting LJ (Reply 89):
Moreover, part of the problem is that the EU can't lower Greece's debt without Spain, Portugal and Italy start complaining and wanting the same treatement.

Yes. The so called "Moral Hazard" concept. While I understand it, I think it has historically been overplayed to give creditors a justification for questionable tactics and ethics. In all situations. Not only in this particular case. The Economist loves to cite "Moral Hazard" as a reason why financial institutions need to be hard and inflexible.

I call it a "Dummy Variable" concept. But it suits many...
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 13168
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 7:04 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 82):
The nation’s fleet, numbering 3,669 vessels in 2013, is the largest in the world, according to the annual report of the Union of Greek Shipowners, making up more than 7 percent of the Greek economy and providing 192,000 jobs in 2013.

A friend of mine worked for a Greek Shipowner, he's Norwegian and worked in Greece, what's interesting is how he was paid, he had an offical salary which he paid tax on and an unofficial salary which came in an envelope every month which was untaxed. I wonder how many of those 192,000 workers are paid the same way.
 
AR385
Posts: 6936
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 7:57 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 91):
A friend of mine worked for a Greek Shipowner, he's Norwegian and worked in Greece, what's interesting is how he was paid, he had an offical salary which he paid tax on and an unofficial salary which came in an envelope every month which was untaxed. I wonder how many of those 192,000 workers are paid the same way.

Man! That is so NEW!!!. Probably the Greeks are the only ones that do it right? Because only the Greeks can come up with such OUTRAGEOUS schemes that are not done anywhere else on THE PLANET. How original of them. That is why they DESERVE OUT of the Eurozone (with 6 years of agony)...

Seriously now. I have a NORWEIGIAN friend, working for a ship company based somewhere in the North Sea, using a port somewhere north of Enlgand, but on the same island, that is paid exactly that way...

But corruption and (tax evasion) are only Greek problems right?

Anecdotical evidence is nice. But it does not mean you have to wonder if 192,000 workers are paid that way. But it certainly feels good to engage in passive-aggressive country bashing without any facts whatsoever...doesn´t it?  
 
User avatar
HELyes
Posts: 1637
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:26 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 8:17 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 91):
an unofficial salary which came in an envelope every month which was untaxed.

Envelopes seems to be part of the culture, a fakelaki ("little envelope") is needed when you meet a doctor or civil servant, don't know if that's changing now.

I really hope Greece will be back on tracks soon. It's a wonderful country, one of my favourite places in Europe, like for so many other Finns. I don't believe tourists need to worry in Greece now, just take enough cash with you. Greece still is one of the safetest spots for tourists in Europe.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5575
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:20 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 92):
Man! That is so NEW!!!.

I'm not sure of the reason for your sarcasm?

Greece's finances have tool long been burdened by its lax and inept tax collection department and the lengths Greek people, especially the wealthy, will go to avoid paying their dues.

One example does not a rule make, but in this case, the issue is well documented an widely cited as one of the main reasons Greece is where it is right now.

The Grexit, though painful for all parties involved, is probably the best thing to happen to the Eurozone and the EU in a long time. A cold water bucket wake up call for everyone.

The one issue is that most Greeks have little part, other than their collective indifference to the growing financial issue, in this undoing, and that the lower classes of the population will, as usual, end up suffering the most.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 5051
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:22 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 92):
Seriously now. I have a NORWEIGIAN friend, working for a ship company based somewhere in the North Sea, using a port somewhere north of Enlgand, but on the same island, that is paid exactly that way...

But corruption and (tax evasion) are only Greek problems right?

The difference is that if HMRC gets wind of your friend being paid in that manner, they will move heaven and earth to prosecute the companies involved.

While in Greece, it seems that its accepted by the authorities with a nod and a wink.
 
iakobos
Posts: 3255
Joined: Wed Aug 06, 2003 6:22 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:48 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 92):
But corruption and (tax evasion) are only Greek problems right?

Definitely not, however, there are very few examples in the "western world" where both the State apparel and the citizens engage, overtly, in the same game "grab as much as you can...for your own pocket"...that has been going on since Ottoman times (..with justification).
It was working magnificently well for decades, life was easy and beautiful for many (most), then the naive EU provided funds in the billions and finally came the conversion to the Euro and the accompanying opportunities.

A few facts
there are 32% of self employed in Greece
the public sector had anything between 800,000 and 1,200,000 employees (nobody knew for sure)
working 11 months and being paid 16 was not an uncommon occurrence
getting bonuses for "being on time at work" or "being usually well dressed" are real
retiring before age 50 and making some extra in another (undeclared) job is real
being a low level state worker and making more than some European ministers is real
at national level books were cooked "as appropriate" with a little help from Goldman Sachs
the church is not the smallest fraudster
etc etc etc
...lost tax revenues estimated at between 23 and 30 billion per year

It is the 2008 crisis that made Brussels finally react, not that is was a complete surprise but good times were over and some cleaning was due.
Brussels's reaction was purely in accounting terms and the extent of the disaster was not understood until very recently. Terrible lack of oversight...

The ball is in Brussels, the choice is purely political, and the dilemma is:
(try to) help to build a modern Greece and be prepared to cash out for the next ten or more years
let Greece sink
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:04 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 92):
But corruption and (tax evasion) are only Greek problems right?

It goes on everywhere in the world. Of course its highlighted in Greece due to the crisis and financial issues. In the old days it was never mentioned much. That doesn't change the fact that corruption and tax evasion was an issue over the decades by the elite and small business owners. What annoys me is when people uneducated on this forum brush everyone with the same brush which shows their ignorance on the matter. Again PAYE workers which make up a third of the workforce had taxes deducted before they even get their pay packet the same as many countries in the world. So its about time that myth was put to bed.

I have two good friends who work in tax collection. One in Ireland at Revenue and another in the UK at HMRC. Interesting discussions the last weeks when we were talking about tax collection. Both said that taxi drivers were the biggest culprits it totally under estimating their tax liabilities and they are renowned for it. Similar in Greece too. The rules are a lot tougher though and they have to prove the tax office has got it wrong if they complain that they dont owe the money. If they can't they have to pay up anyway. The resources to collect tax are a lot more advanced too and thats what Greece lacks. Hard to create a new state of the art tax collection system which requires a large investment when you are struggling to pay pensions and wages. Its a vicious circle but one that needs to be addressed in future.

Quoting HELyes (Reply 93):
I don't believe tourists need to worry in Greece now, just take enough cash with you. Greece still is one of the safetest spots for tourists in Europe.

True and with events in Tunisia many have switched to Greece as its very safe and always will be.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 81):
From what I have read, the EU has put various demands on Greece with the loan some 5 years ago and that has basically put the country into a deep recession Now there is an effort by the EU to add more demands which would put Greece deeper into a hole.

And it seems to me that it is Germany that is trying the hardest to push them down. That's pretty queer as I cannot think of another country in Europe that received more help since the end of WW II. And. quite frankly a lot of that help has been in the form of charity of one type or another. Maybe if Germany looked a little more of the charity that they have received over the past decades they will be a bit more aggressive in actually helping Greece instead of pushing them down.

All these things seem to be overlooked surprise , surprise.


Back tracking and too little too late as always !



Greece crisis: a disaster for Athens and a colossal failure for the EU

'''The IMF has argued internally for at least three years that the organisation was breaching its own rules by taking part in a bailout that held out little prospect of achieving the debt sustainability the fund’s rescues prescribe. Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, ignored the advice of her own experts and remained in the failing project.

Following the calling of the Greek referendum, the collapse of the negotiations and the end of the bailout on Saturday, the European commission, keen to salvage the situation while diverting blame, stated publicly for the first time on Sunday that the proposed deal would have included a form of debt relief for Greece, prime minister Alexis Tsipras’s central demand.''

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...isaster-athens-collosal-failure-eu
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 13168
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:14 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 92):
Man! That is so NEW!!!.

It's just an example of someone who was PAYE was also getting black money, another reason why the country is screwed. The black portion of his salary was well over double the declared portion.

The example above would be almost impossible to replicate in Norway.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 92):
Seriously now. I have a NORWEIGIAN friend, working for a ship company based somewhere in the North Sea, using a port somewhere north of Enlgand, but on the same island, that is paid exactly that way...

He could be paying tax to Norway for all you know, if he's still a Norwegian citizen with a Norwegian pension on an expat package the Norwegian govt would hunt him down like a rabbid dog and fine him to within an inch of his life for not paying tax. Tax evasion in Norway is the worst crime any Norwegian could committ.
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 24894
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

RE: Greece Default Imminent

Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:29 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 98):
It's just an example of someone who was PAYE was also getting black money, another reason why the country is screwed. The black portion of his salary was well over double the declared portion.

He gave the money back right?
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 8

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ArchGuy1, BlueberryWheats, NIKV69, Runway28L, ZaphodHarkonnen and 49 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos