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Aesma
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:06 am

Quoting victrola (Reply 246):
More austerity will lead to a further contraction of the Greek economy which will lead to calls for further austerity which will lead to further contraction of the Greek economy which will lead to further calls for austerity and on and on and on. This is not going to work. As much as you want it to happen, the debt will never ever be paid off.

More uncontrolled spending will lead to more debt which will lead to more uncontrolled spending etc.
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tommy1808
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:15 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 247):
As for comparison: Germany has currently about 250 tanks and less than 100 fighters, for a population of 60 million.

815 MBT (667 Leopard 2, 147 Leopard 1)
225 combat aircraft

and 80 Million people  

best regards
Thomas
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:43 am

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 249):
If the IMF doesn't backpedal, this could be quite an issue, and not just for Greece and Tsipras. Merkel and Schaeuble both have said that getting the IMF on board is key to winning the Bundestag over.

Maybe they are setting the stage for some kind of debt relief down the road. If all the reforms are passed and down the road its still not working they will be able to step in and say now is the time to make some changes.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:54 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 252):
Maybe they are setting the stage for some kind of debt relief down the road. If all the reforms are passed and down the road its still not working they will be able to step in and say now is the time to make some changes.

I think they already have that planned anyways, only this times around the Greece government has to deliver first.
Once that shows significant progress a haircut is a much easier sell to the population.

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Thomas
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mariner
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:24 am

Now comes the IMF, in this disturbing analysis from the BBC:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33531743

"Has IMF blown up Greece rescue?

Just when it looked as though there could be a pause in the eurozone's Greek crisis, the International Monetary Fund has launched a blistering attack on the bailout deal forced on Athens by Germany and other eurozone governments.

It says that Greece's debt can now only be made bearable through "debt relief measures that go far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far".

And it makes three other savage criticisms of the reforms forced on Greece by the rest of the eurozone, and whose main elements are being rushed through the Athens parliament today."


Among other things, there's this:

"....the eurozone creditors, and Germany in particular, forced Alexis Tsipras - against his strong preference - to accept IMF participation in the next formal bailout package to be negotiated if Greek MPs pass the initial reform measures tonight.

They told him, in effect, he would be turfed out of the eurozone and into national ruin unless he took more of the IMF's money and fiscal bossiness.

Which also look tragically comic tonight - with the IMF saying that if it's all the same to Mrs Merkel, it would rather not touch Greece with a barge pole.

Or to be tediously literal, the IMF has made it clear that it does not wish to participate in any further Greek bailout, unless Germany and the rest drop their vehement opposition to big write-offs of Greek debt."


I dunno. I don't know Greece gets put of this, and more and more, I think a Grexit might look preferable.

mariner
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Aesma
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:49 am

The IMF is sinking into irrelevance. Christine Lagarde was calling Tsipras and Varoufakis "children", and now the IMF is acting childish. If debt relief is now its new mantra, why doesn't it show the lead and let go of part of its Greek debt ?
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BestWestern
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:09 am

IMF is demonstrating that It's rather easy to tell other people what to do with their money.
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:33 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 255):
The IMF is sinking into irrelevance.

So why do Germany hold such importance over them being in on a deal ?
 
rabenschlag
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:39 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 250):
More uncontrolled spending will lead to more debt which will lead to more uncontrolled spending etc.

        

I cannot understand how so many people are in favor just to hand out more money.

Help - yes, but after several failures, help with a clear purpose.
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:43 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 254):
"Has IMF blown up Greece rescue?

BTW if Greece passes these reforms and then goes back and the fighting between EU/IMF halts a deal they will look very stupid. Their whole ''trust'' arguments will have back fired.
 
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par13del
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:55 pm

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 247):
the bloated public sector has to justify it's existence by creating lots of red tape, which on one hand protects cozy monopolies in the Greek private sector and promotes corruption, and on the other hand scares potential foreign investors away.
Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 247):
Then they have one of the biggest militaries in Europe, with about 1500 main battle tanks, several hundred combat aircraft and a big navy, plus about 500 military bases, all for a population of 11 million. As for comparison: Germany has currently about 250 tanks and less than 100 fighters, for a population of 60 million.

Government's usually do not run / operate business, when they get actively involved in the economy it is through a bloated public sector and in the case of Greece, also a large military.
To create jobs, governments due to election pressures want jobs now, rather than putting policies / rules / regulations in place to stimulate the private sector to create jobs, additionally, when they are government jobs they have "more control" over how they will vote during elections.

When Greece implements additional austerity measures and reduce government spending, more public service jobs will be lost along with military personnel almost immediately, how many years will it take for the private sector to take up the slack?
A large number of Greeks are going to have to migrate for jobs, if the environment in the EU is not toxic they will be successful, however, at present the EU appears to be on a course of shifting folks around versus getting countries back on their feet, the situation in North Africa cannot be resolved by resettling migrants throughout the union, the home countries need to be addressed.
How much investment went into the region for reasons other than empowering the local economies?
A topic for another thread perhaps, but Greece is right in front of everyone, a much larger hole than Ireland and Spain, how the country is put back on its feet will be a case study for many years.
 
victrola
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:45 pm

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 247):
Bringing money into Greece will only work if it is INVESTED to set up Greek production and to create jobs. But, from what I understand, the bloated public sector has to justify it's existence by creating lots of red tape, which on one hand protects cozy monopolies in the Greek private sector and promotes corruption, and on the other hand scares potential foreign investors away

I think some distinction has to be made between more austerity and reforms that will lead to eventual growth in the Greek economy. All the red tape and cozy monopolies in Greece, while protecting their beneficiaries, are on the whole job killers in the Greek economy. I think that some debt relief will be necessary but it must be predicated upon the Greeks initiating reforms that will create conditions for economic growth. The red tape, monopolies, and other impediments to investment need to go.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:18 pm

No matter how much money we'll pump to Greece it probably doesn't matter in the end, they need their own currency to fix things. I don't like the idea of Finland sending any more money there while we are suffering from austerity measures ourselves. But of course what we want is irrelevant, France and Germany are the EU.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:44 pm

Interesting article :

Greece’s brutal creditors have demolished the eurozone project

Wolfgang Münchau

Stripped of ambitions for a political and economic union, the bloc changes into a utilitarian project

A few things that many of us took for granted, and that some of us believed in, ended in a single weekend. By forcing Alexis Tsipras into a humiliating defeat, Greece’s creditors have done a lot more than bring about regime change in Greece or endanger its relations with the eurozone. They have destroyed the eurozone as we know it and demolished the idea of a monetary union as a step towards a democratic political union.
In doing so they reverted to the nationalist European power struggles of the 19th and early 20th century. They demoted the eurozone into a toxic fixed exchange-rate system, with a shared single currency, run in the interests of Germany, held together by the threat of absolute destitution for those who challenge the prevailing order. The best thing that can be said of the weekend is the brutal honesty of those perpetrating this regime change.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e38a4...83-71cb60e8f08c.html#axzz3fyHAUWn2
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:56 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 263):
They have destroyed the eurozone as we know it and demolished the idea of a monetary union as a step towards a democratic political union.

And others might say they have brought back credibility to the Eurozone and Europe by demonstrating there's a limit to the degree of criminally negligent budgetary management members are allowed...

There's always an article out there that fits one's views.
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FighterPilot
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:04 pm

How does the saying go? "Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame one me." Fool me three times???

Cal   
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:12 pm

Quoting FighterPilot (Reply 265):
Fool me three times???

Shame on everyone   lol..
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:16 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 251):
815 MBT (667 Leopard 2, 147 Leopard 1)
225 combat aircraft

How many of these are active? I have read of three armoured battalions, with the government just having bought back 100 tanks,which were earmarked for scrapping. The others are probably still in storage prnding disposal, as per the old Bundeswehr reform of 2012 ("We don't need heavy gear anymore, we are all friends now"). The Leopard 1 tanks are also awaiting scrapping.

Jan
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blueflyer
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:31 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 255):
The IMF is sinking into irrelevance. Christine Lagarde was calling Tsipras and Varoufakis "children", and now the IMF is acting childish.

The IMF warned the EU on Saturday that Greek debt was so high that they didn't think an acceptable deal was possible without debt relief. The EU goes ahead and does a deal without debt relief, and the IMF confirms its position.

Further, Tsipras wanted the IMF out of this bailout, Merkel absolutely wanted the fund in, and Schaeuble refuses to talk about debt relief but also wants the IMF in. For sure the IMF is far from perfect, but in this instance we know who the Kinder are.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 264):
And others might say they have brought back credibility to the Eurozone and Europe by demonstrating there's a limit to the degree of criminally negligent budgetary management members are allowed.

I have yet to read these others, although in the very same issue of the Financial Times that OA260 found the column he posted, another column complains Germany capitulated. There is indeed something for everyone.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/30e6b...0-2957-11e5-acfb-cbd2e1c81cca.html

Personally, I tend to believe that, as is usually the case in EU meetings, officials from smaller countries say out loud what bigger countries think privately, and the loser is Germany. Its attitude was "disgusting" (Luxembourg) and it has "lost a lot of political capital" (Malta). Most other countries seemed to be willing to do a deal with less harsh terms than those imposed by Germany. I do realize that Germany was not alone in its stance, but the four other countries (Netherlands, Finland, Spain, Italy) didn't have the power by themselves to force their views through, and three of them are motivated by political survival more than anything else.
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rabenschlag
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 263):
Greece’s brutal creditors have demolished the eurozone project

My a$$! Creditors asking for their loans to be repaid are brutal? If this is the axiom of a financial culture, loans make no sense anymore.

A debtor not repaying her loan might equally be called brutal.

What does it mean if an individual goes bankrupt? He or she betrayed the creditor and broke a moral promise and legal duty. What to do in such a case? Many countries have the concept of declaring personal bankruptcy, which typically involves a moratorium on the debt, but also required the debtor to sell all belongings to the benefit of the creditors and to live at the minimum standard for an extended period of time, with the latter being an important deterrent for other financially irresponsible players, who otherwise would be motivated to exploit creditors in the future.

None of this happened to Greece so far. And none of even these measures would be considered brutal for private bankrupteurs. Instead, many people have the moral intuition that it is the darn duty of debtors to pay back, and if they cant, do as much as they can and then live in poverty.

So how on earth is it brutality that happened so fat to Greece?


Cheers, Rabenschlag
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:56 pm

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 269):
and to live at the minimum standard for an extended period of time
Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 269):
So how on earth is it brutality that happened so fat to Greece?

Many in the country are not living at an acceptable minimum standard of life and are on the poverty line. If they were an individual in many countries in the EU they would have a better deal being bankrupt.
 
offloaded
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:44 pm

I was just reading a couple of points on the BBC website. VAT changes including a top rate of 23% to take in processed food and restaurants and; a 13% rate to cover fresh food, energy bills, water and hotel stays; and a 6% rate for medicines and books.

Here in Portugal the VAT rate has been 23% since 2011. In 2010 they raised restaurant VAT from 13 to 23%, and energy bills from 6 to 23% which hurt. In 2010, VAT website Avalara stated: "this increase is part of a range of measure introduced to underpin collapsing government revenues following the recent European economic crisis, and financial markets concerns around Portugal’s ability to meet its debt repayments."

So even with the hikes, they're still paying less VAT than we do on several things.
To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
 
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par13del
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Quoting francoflier (Reply 264):
And others might say they have brought back credibility to the Eurozone and Europe by demonstrating there's a limit to the degree of criminally negligent budgetary management members are allowed...

Europe has a criminal court which they are using to charge nationals from other countries, if things are so bad and actions of those in Greece so criminal, I'm shocked that the EU court does not have some avenue to initiate charges, are they being stunted for political reasons?
Goes back to a question I raised earlier, is there any evidence that the bail out funds were mis-appropriated or even stolen?
So far all I have heard is Greece not following through on reforms, the funds were used as intended.
 
vc10
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:02 pm

If I recall, in the early 1950's the debt repayments that West Germany was carrying seemed to be hindering the economic recovery of Germany.
So under the London agreement of 1953 West Germany was relieved of I believe 50% of her debt and given 30 years to repay the rest, with payment only to be made if she had a trade surplus and also to be limited to
3% of her annual export earnings.

So a more gentle way of helping a country with it's debt has been used before

littlevc10
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:43 pm

Quoting vc10 (Reply 273):
If I recall, in the early 1950's the debt repayments that West Germany was carrying seemed to be hindering the economic recovery of Germany.
So under the London agreement of 1953 West Germany was relieved of I believe 50% of her debt and given 30 years to repay the rest, with payment only to be made if she had a trade surplus and also to be limited to
3% of her annual export earnings.

So a more gentle way of helping a country with it's debt has been used before

littlevc10

No problems with a debt reduction if the reforms go through to make Greece competitive, but not under the current system, which will be a hole without a bottom.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
Ken777
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:50 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):

"If the debts a just cancelled and brushed under the carpet, as many would hope is going to be the case. That is not being held accountable in my book."

Not the full amount - just the 50% that Germany was blessed with in 1953.

BTW why did responsible people in Governments decide that it was in everyones interest to give Germany that 50% reduction in debts and the Troika (Especially the German PM) cannot understand those reasons and continue that moral standard?

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 125):
And it will be interesting to see whether the Tsipras Government delivers on the much over due reforms

They already delivered those reforms a few years ago which is why Greece is in a deep Depression.

BTW, how would you, as an Aussie voter, handle a Depression hitting Australia, with GDP cut 26%, overall unemployment at 25% and unemployment in the 25 & younger group at 50%?

How would you handle that? Would you vote for the government that brought the misery in, or would you go for a politician that promised to fight for improvements?

Quoting pvjin (Reply 188):
So, can those three central powers force smaller EU states to also take part in a new bail out package?

Of course they can. The four countries in their target (called the PIGS) have all suffered. 3 claim to be improving but only one (Spain I believe) has a debt level that is under 100% of the GDP. Since they are at 98% and that level is growing they will break the 100% level soon, especially with the interest impacting their ability to reduce loan principle.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 193):
At the moment the screws are tightened on Greece by the creditors to warn other countries not to attempt the same fiddles as the Greek governments did.

Fiddles? Withe the austerity demands of the Troika and the resulting DEPRESSION it sure doesn't look like the Troika has a clue on how to handle the situation. They have been as big a failure over this as the Greeks have.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 193):
Realistically there might even be a cut of debts.

There probably will be as without restructuring the debt of the PIGS (and especially Greece) there is a risk that the EuroZone House of Cards will fall down. You cannot demand poverty in a country and anticipate that they will have the money to repay your loans - which is precisely what the Troika is doing.

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 194):
Completely agree, after all, if you listen to half the people in this thread, Greece is only in the situation its in because of the EU, and its agenda of wanting to drive Greece and its people into the ground.

I don't believe that it was the intent of the Troika to drive Greece into a deep iDepression - it is simply that they were massively incompetent in developing a program that would improve Greece's debt situation without causing massive financial for the people of Greece.

This is especially frustrating for me as I watch the German PM bullying her way around the situation, saying how extremely generous their offer was. If she wants to see "generous" then she needs to look back to 1953 and match those moral standards and generosity.

TO be blunt, Germany has been the largest recipient of charity (generosity) of any country during my 70 years of living and I have developed a personal contempt for the German PM over her performance in the Greek Crisis.

If Her Holiness is not prepared to address issues of Greek unemployment maybe the US should step in and transfer a quarter or a third of military bases from Germany to Greece, including a quarter to a third of local civilian employment related to those bases. And let's toss in a quarter to a third of the local purchasing from German sources that can be moved to Greek sources. Germany is obviously strong enough to take that little hit, but it sure would help the Greeks - something that the German PM is not interesting in doing.

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 194):
. In fact, at this point, they have completely fallen of the board, with even harsher austerity measures than perviously agreed to, set to be inflicted by the EU soon.

And Her Holiness in Germany won't give a moments thought about how deep in poverty the Greek people will suffer from her bullying, or how deep the Greek Depression goes. That, as noted above, might have an impact in areas like the UK when they are looking at staying in the EU at some future election. Like 2017?

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 202):

I'm simply dumbstruck that the Greek government after an anti austerity vote have agreed to an even more extreme austere.

Her Holiness obviously exploded after that referendum was announced and increased the financial attacks on Greece. I believe that her actions and the support of the Troika, will turn out to be a bad decision for the Troika and the EU in general.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 202):
A Greek government representative on BBC world was talking about this being a coup.

It certainly was an abusive attack on the Greek politicians and, indirectly, on the Greek people.

Quoting offloaded (Reply 211):
For every loser, there's always a winner.

The Troika only assumes they won. Now they have to worry about the economic performance of their brilliant economic programs as well as how bad they will look in the eyes of the average voters in the EU. Especially in the UK

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 230):
Well according to the NZ Herald, Mr Tsipras has "pulled it off" alright, he's 'vandalised' the Greek economy.

Greece was in the pits long before Tsipras was elected. At least he made an effort and Her Holiness sure did react. I have no doubt that Merkel would have watched Greece totally collapse before admitting that their previous demands for austerity were stupid and a change in direction was needed.

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 230):
"Syriza's false promises have brought the erstwhile fringe party once-unimaginable political success. Yet after gaining power, the party eviscerated an already weak economy, bankrupted the financial system and caused untold needless hardship to the very people Syriza claimed to speak for: the poor.

The Greek economy would have crashed to the same point under Syriza with this new round of Troika demands unless he went crawling on his hands and knees begging for any demands the Troika could come up with.

The Troika delivered a failure long before Tsipras was elected and the damage tot he banks and population since his election is in large part due to the incompetence of the Troika demands and the crushing pressure they put on the country to bring it to their knees,

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 230):
Greeks have ample reason to be mad at their euro area partners, but they should hold their own prime minister responsible for destroying their economy in a reckless political experiment

You mean the previous PM? That is where the Depression was built - him and the Troika.

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 230):
Regrettably, this is not over. As a result of the prime minister's actions and Europe's brutal response, Tsipras - - or a successor Greek government -- may yet get a mandate to abandon the euro."

I assume you mean the German PM and she holds the primary responsibility for the suffering of the Greek people.

Both Greece and the Troika have the 3 years of this bailout to prepare for a final clash. The Troika might be hoping for a change in the Greek economy with the suffering of the Greek people reducing but they have already proven that increasing austerity in the Greek economy leads to a deeper Depression, increased suffering on the population and an increase in the debt.

All the Troika is doing now is following a path that they have proven is a disaster.

On the Greek side, the 3 years provides time to design a new currency and go into production ASAP. That at least provides them a safety net the next time the Troika plays their "Increase The Depression Game". That might come in really handy, especially if the UK votes to leave the EU and Spain & Italy start to understand that the long term "solution" of their austerity programs are a total failure as their debt to GDP continues to grow at unacceptable levels.

Quoting iakobos (Reply 231):
And a young and promising generation devoid of the future they deserve, unless they emigrate.

And that is a massive problem that every country needs to focus on. Unemployment in Greece for those under 25 is at the 50% level. The Troika should have looked at that horrible problem and ensured that whatever their plan was it would address that unemployment issue.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 233):
But the UK is certain to take note of this entire soap opera come its own referendum on the EU.

Interesting point. When the Brits look at how the Troika has treated the Greek population and the Depression they have caused then it is obvious that there will be many that will want to distance themselves from the like of Merkel. I doubt if Her Holiness gave that risk any thought as she was crushing Greek Politicians. Obviously she gave the Greek population any thought.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 236):

Tsipras hase been giving the EU and other creditors repeatetely the two fingered salute and trust between him and the creditors is completely gone.

I guess Merkel had been expecting Tsipras to come crawling on his knees begging for more financial austerity to make the Depression in Greece even deeper. Obviously she had forgotten that it was Tsipras' predecessor AND the previous Troika bailouts that caused both the Depression and the change in Greek Governments.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 236):
I wonder if a different government could regain this trust?

Do you mean a new government in Germany? That would result in an opportunity for a dramatic improvement in relations with Greec, as well as other EU countries that have quietly looked on at the German PM's actions. My bet is that the Brits that want to leave the EU will use Merkel as a prime demonstration of the need to leave the EU. At least the UK already has their currency. Wonder how many other EuroZone countries are giving that some thought right now.

Quoting vc10 (Reply 273):
So under the London agreement of 1953 West Germany was relieved of I believe 50% of her debt and given 30 years to repay the rest, with payment only to be made if she had a trade surplus and also to be limited to 3% of her annual export earnings.

Merkel certainly doesn't want the world to remember that, nor the massive funding for military support that Germany has received all these yeast - hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into Germany, providing economic stimulus and generating wealth for its population. Remembering all that would raise the question of how successful would Germany be today without all those decades of charity.
 
rabenschlag
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:09 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
Do you mean a new government in Germany? That would result in an opportunity for a dramatic improvement in relations with Greec, as well as other EU countries that have quietly looked on at the German PM's actions. My bet is that the Brits that want to leave the EU will use Merkel as a prime demonstration of the need to leave the EU. At least the UK already has their currency. Wonder how many other EuroZone countries are giving that some thought right now.

How many EU countries, and more importantly, how many EU citizens would feel happy to support Greece with their money? What about countries that went through hardships to get their budgets under control? Germany is an easy scapegoat, but I guess, most people do not feel easy when their money is thrown at overspenders.

In general, I am still amazed how many people turn out to be sympathizing with a fiscally irresponsible state and blame the victims of this irresponsibility - which are the private creditors to Greece as well as the citizens of those EU states that have been supporting Greece during the last decades.

Ken, I guess you are also a big fan of unlimited, generous social support in the US? Like handing out unlimited pocked money to US citizens who have not enough to live comfortably? Do you generously give to the have-nots in your community if, for the fifths time, they screwed their family budget?
 
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OA260
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:43 pm

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 276):
In general, I am still amazed how many people turn out to be sympathizing with a fiscally irresponsible state and blame the victims of this irresponsibility - which are the private creditors to Greece as well as the citizens of those EU states that have been supporting Greece during the last decades.

Probably the same kind of sympathy the Irish had about their bankers in the crisis   ""Ironic button on''.

Siemens and Daimler didnt mind throwing their money to the Greeks !
 
L410Turbolet
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:46 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
TO be blunt, Germany has been the largest recipient of charity (generosity) of any country during my 70 years of living and I have developed a personal contempt for the German PM over her performance in the Greek Crisis.

Just because you will repeat this nonsense over and over again, won't make it a truth. But nice try copy pasting your old posts. Try to come up with something new.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
My bet is that the Brits that want to leave the EU will use Merkel as a prime demonstration of the need to leave the EU.

UKIP will use anything in their campaign.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
And Her Holiness in Germany won't give a moments thought about how deep in poverty the Greek people will suffer from her bullying, or how deep the Greek Depression goes

Oh pleease... Greeks have been making all this noise and have problem dealing with the fact that decades' of living way above their means has come to an end, it does not mean their competence, laziness and irresponsibility should be rewarded while others (by implication) be collectively punished for biting the bullet and making unpopular and painful reforms in the meantime.
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:54 pm

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 278):
Oh pleease... Greeks have been making all this noise and have problem dealing with the fact that decades' of living way above their means has come to an end, it does not mean their competence, laziness and irresponsibility should be rewarded while others (by implication) be collectively punished for biting the bullet and making unpopular and painful reforms in the meantime.

Oh please with your racist generalisations about being lazy. You really add nothing to the thread except stereo types and racism. Go troll somewhere else.
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:23 pm

Laziness to implement reforms among other things. What else is it? They have been in this mess for 6-7 years and only now they are forced to do things other countries have done years ago as the first thing when the sh*t hit the fan. Raising the retirement age, for example.
They can't even collect their own taxes to support the byzantine state apparatus and yet expect others to repeatedly bail them out at the same time!
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:52 pm

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 276):
How many EU countries, and more importantly, how many EU citizens would feel happy to support Greece with their money?

Not many. France, obviously, and Italy, but yes, the northern states were vocal in their opposition.

The simple - or simpler - answer might have been to kick Greece out of the Euro, as Schauble suggested was possible - sf still does

http://www.politico.eu/article/germa...dermines-greek-deal-grexit-merkel/

"Schäuble undermines Greek deal

The German finance minister splits publicly with Chancellor Angela Merkel for the first time.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble cast doubt Tuesday on Europe’s latest rescue plan for Greece, claiming that many Germans would still prefer a ‘Grexit.’


I assume fear of a fractured Euro was the main driver in ming the agreement.

mariner
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:56 pm

The reform bill has overwhelmingly been passed in the Greek parliament just now.
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:32 pm

However, 40 from the government ranks voted NO. The government will probably fall sooner rather than later, with the hard left breaking away.

Meanwhile on the streets, some Greeks are defaulting to strikes and riots - hardly the norm investors love to see.
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:56 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 283):
Meanwhile on the streets, some Greeks are defaulting to strikes and riots - hardly the norm investors love to see.

As I also said in the last thread, here's hoping that people in the streets do not add to the just increased debt by inflicting physical damage.
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 2:00 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
They already delivered those reforms a few years ago which is why Greece is in a deep Depression.

Not all and not throughly enough as has been well documented !

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
How would you handle that? Would you vote for the government that brought the misery in, or would you go for a politician that promised to fight for improvements?

I would vote for the Government who had the necessary balls to bring in the reforms that are needed to sort out the mess. If that involves bringing in this that will be viewed as misery, then so be it.

Ken777, sometimes when you "fight for improvements", things get tough along the way.... life is not all smooth sailing!

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
I don't believe that it was the intent of the Troika to drive Greece into a deep iDepression - it is simply that they were massively incompetent in developing a program that would improve Greece's debt situation without causing massive financial for the people of Greece.

Two things here.
1) I can't believe that for nearly 7 years, there has been a constant pattern of "incompetence" by so many, and all at the same time. If we were only talking about 1 party here dealing with the Greeks, then perhaps so. but not all.
2)The various Greek Governments didn't have to take the money if it was such a bad deal being offered now did they ?

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
And Her Holiness in Germany won't give a moments thought about how deep in poverty the Greek people will suffer from her bullying, or how deep the Greek Depression goes. That, as noted above, might have an impact in areas like the UK when they are looking at staying in the EU at some future election. Like 2017?

Again, Merkel is an astute woman, as are most of the EU leaders... Finding it difficult to imagine they all have their collective heads in the sand about how serious this is, for not only Greece, but also for entire Europe.

Do you really think these leaders want hundreds of thousands if not millions of Greeks flooding into their countries ?

Me think not !

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
This is especially frustrating for me as I watch the German PM bullying her way around the situation, saying how extremely generous their offer was. If she wants to see "generous" then she needs to look back to 1953 and match those moral standards and generosity.

You keep banging on about 1953.

Please lets compare apples with apples and not only that, lets compare "reforms" with "reforms". Reforms that to this dag, despite loud reassurances, Greece has not carried out satisfactorily, and over a 7 year time frame. Germany did, and more !

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
TO be blunt, Germany has been the largest recipient of charity (generosity) of any country during my 70 years of living and I have developed a personal contempt for the German PM over her performance in the Greek Crisis.

Germany introduced many many reforms after the war, they turned the country around in record time, and frankly have never looked back to this day, they are the power house of Europe

And you lay the b;lame sole with Merkel....?

Ken, she is not the only one making decisions regarding Greece. please understand this.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
And Her Holiness in Germany won't give a moments thought about how deep in poverty the Greek people will suffer from her bullying, or how deep the Greek Depression goes. That, as noted above, might have an impact in areas like the UK when they are looking at staying in the EU at some future election. Like 2017?

When you live way beyond your means for decade after decade, and refuse to adopt reforms, that, as has happened in other European nations, then it will come and bite you join the ass.

The Greek people have known for a very long time that things must change, but they have refused.

Is that Markels fault they haven't adopted change ?

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
The Greek economy would have crashed to the same point under Syriza with this new round of Troika demands unless he went crawling on his hands and knees begging for any demands the Troika could come up with.

Didn't stop him from lying now did it ?

He went to the people in January telling them "he" and "his" party would change everything. They would renegotiate debt funding etc etc etc, but according to you, that was a falsehood and a massive lie, as you say, they would have crashed out anyway !

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
You mean the previous PM? That is where the Depression was built - him and the Troika.

No. I mean him.

Read the article I posted !

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
I assume you mean the German PM and she holds the primary responsibility for the suffering of the Greek people.

Again NO, I mean Tsipras.

Read the article I posted.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
And that is a massive problem that every country needs to focus on. Unemployment in Greece for those under 25 is at the 50% level. The Troika should have looked at that horrible problem and ensured that whatever their plan was it would address that unemployment issue.

Well they can blame there parents for that, and nobody else.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
I guess Merkel had been expecting Tsipras to come crawling on his knees begging for more financial austerity to make the Depression in Greece even deeper. Obviously she had forgotten that it was Tsipras' predecessor AND the previous Troika bailouts that caused both the Depression and the change in Greek Governments.

So the fault lies nowhere else but at the feet of Merkle and Co right...?

And Greece has absolutely no responsibility in any of this ?

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 276):
How many EU countries, and more importantly, how many EU citizens would feel happy to support Greece with their money?

Its must be warning very thin at this point in time.

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 276):
What about countries that went through hardships to get their budgets under control?

Shame Greece couldn't do it !

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 276):
In general, I am still amazed how many people turn out to be sympathizing with a fiscally irresponsible state and blame the victims of this irresponsibility - which are the private creditors to Greece as well as the citizens of those EU states that have been supporting Greece during the last decades.

I know. Apologists, The world is full of e'm unfortunately.
Its always everyone else fault, but their own... Go figure !

Quoting OA260 (Reply 279):
Oh please with your racist generalisations about being lazy. You really add nothing to the thread except stereo types and racism.

Seriously though, this is how Greece is known around the world. Its not an untruth at all, its a fact !

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 280):
Laziness to implement reforms among other things. What else is it? They have been in this mess for 6-7 years and only now they are forced to do things other countries have done years ago as the first thing when the sh*t hit the fan. Raising the retirement age, for example.
They can't even collect their own taxes to support the byzantine state apparatus and yet expect others to repeatedly bail them out at the same time!

Agree !

Quoting mariner (Reply 281):
Not many. France, obviously, and Italy, but yes, the northern states were vocal in their opposition.

But they still went ahead and supported them, 3 times now. Gee they must be terrible people in the north.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 283):
However, 40 from the government ranks voted NO. The government will probably fall sooner rather than later, with the hard left breaking away.

Meanwhile on the streets, some Greeks are defaulting to strikes and riots - hardly the norm investors love to see.
Quoting par13del (Reply 284):
As I also said in the last thread, here's hoping that people in the streets do not add to the just increased debt by inflicting physical damage.

Of course they will BIG TIME, because they blame everyone else for the problems they are now facing, and shirting to take any of the responsibility for where they all find themselves now. Sad indeed.
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:57 am

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 285):
But they still went ahead and supported them, 3 times now. Gee they must be terrible people in the north.

They;re not "terrible people" - LOL - they just have conflicting agendas and a Gordian Knot of a problem.

But even the German Finance Minister thinks this last "support" was a mistake.

mariner

[Edited 2015-07-15 21:01:13]
aeternum nauta
 
BestWestern
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:55 am

Nobody is forcing Greece to take the money.
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Aesma
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 6:03 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 286):
But even the German Finance Minister thinks this last "support" was a mistake.

No, he thinks it's unpopular for Germans. Basically he's saying he doesn't care about the EU, Germany first.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
rabenschlag
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 7:55 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 288):
No, he thinks it's unpopular for Germans. Basically he's saying he doesn't care about the EU, Germany first.


Can you provide a quote documenting that he did say the latter? Implicitly or explicitly? And if he acts with the Germans in mind, this is his freaking job, I expect him to do so. And to have the bigger picture in mind. EU politicians always have to balance national and union-interests. Not an easy job. But taking care of national interests does not necessarily mean that someone is not caring about EU interests.

And what is the logic here: Everyone who is not in favor of unlimited funding of overspending countries does not care about the EU? That is wicked. What about the overspenders who started this mess. Did THEY care about the EU or about themselves?

Point is:
- EU is not a full social union. It is not constructed in a way such that overspending poorer states will be alimented forever.
- If an overspending crisis emerges, political actions should (a) help the debtor to cope with the situation to prevent humanitarian crises, and (b) political actions should prevent this to repeat within the same country or other countries.

Unlimited alimentation will serve a but not b.
Just writing off the debt will serve a but not b.

[Edited 2015-07-16 00:58:10]
 
AR385
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:28 am

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 258):
I cannot understand how so many people are in favor just to hand out more money.

Because it was needed so the entire EU financial system did not collapse with the big recession.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 264):
And others might say they have brought back credibility to the Eurozone and Europe by demonstrating there's a limit to the degree of criminally negligent budgetary management members are allowed...

What they have done is demonstrated that the EU is ruled by one country. And that for the sake of maintaining order, and keeping everyone in check (and banks safe) they are willing to get people in other countries to sacrifice below a decent standard of living. And shown how shortsighted they are.

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 269):
My a$$! Creditors asking for their loans to be repaid are brutal? If this is the axiom of a financial culture, loans make no sense anymore.

Moral hazard works both ways...Germany knew Greece´s numbers were not even close to make them eligible to join the Eurozone. But Draghi was ordered to disguise them. Some will say for the sake of a larger, idealistic principle. I am more cynic. So sure, Greece has its faults, but the ones who always knew they were not up to the Eurozone do too.

The banks who kept lending them money, they should pay their price for their negligence. Or are you going to accept that a bank that did not do its due dilligence should go scot free? What message would that send to other lenders? That they can lend money without later having to assume the consequences of their negligence?

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 275):
Interesting point. When the Brits look at how the Troika has treated the Greek population and the Depression they have caused then it is obvious that there will be many that will want to distance themselves from the like of Merkel. I doubt if Her Holiness gave that risk any thought as she was crushing Greek Politicians. Obviously she gave the Greek population any thought.

Exactly. Anyone campaigning against the EU, is going to use this argument to separate. And with the examples of what they have done to Greece, they are not going to fall on deaf ears...
 
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Aesma
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:41 am

Quoting rabenschlag (Reply 289):
Can you provide a quote documenting that he did say the latter? Implicitly or explicitly? And if he acts with the Germans in mind, this is his freaking job, I expect him to do so. And to have the bigger picture in mind. EU politicians always have to balance national and union-interests. Not an easy job. But taking care of national interests does not necessarily mean that someone is not caring about EU interests.

And what is the logic here: Everyone who is not in favor of unlimited funding of overspending countries does not care about the EU? That is wicked. What about the overspenders who started this mess. Did THEY care about the EU or about themselves?

Point is:
- EU is not a full social union. It is not constructed in a way such that overspending poorer states will be alimented forever.
- If an overspending crisis emerges, political actions should (a) help the debtor to cope with the situation to prevent humanitarian crises, and (b) political actions should prevent this to repeat within the same country or other countries.

Unlimited alimentation will serve a but not b.
Just writing off the debt will serve a but not b.

Except that pouring money endlessely at Greece wasn't on the table. He saying the current agreement, very harsh for Greece, with 0 debt reduction, is bad. And he's more popular than Merkel in Germany for that position. Instead of trying to find a compromise or support it once it has been reached, he's throwing the EU under the bus.

As for social integration, it's isn't done yet but it's a goal of the EU. If Germany doesn't want it, then the EU will soon disappear.
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:12 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 288):
No, he thinks it's unpopular for Germans.

He's saying rather more than that. He's saying that he doesn't; know if Greece will even get the bail-out package.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...ny-schaeuble-idUSKCN0PQ0D920150716

"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble questioned whether Greece will ever get a third bailout program on Thursday, a day after the Greek parliament passed a package of stringent measures required to open negotiations on financial aid."

In the strongest open criticism yet, Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann, a center-left social democrat, said the view of Schaueble that it might be better for Greece to leave the euro was "totally wrong".


mariner

[Edited 2015-07-16 02:14:04]
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:37 am

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 285):
Seriously though, this is how Greece is known around the world. Its not an untruth at all, its a fact !

Again a bit of a sweeping statement and most educated people on the matter know that Greeks work as hard as anyone else and are highly educated which is one reason they get good jobs abroad. To call a nation lazy is pure racism and would not be accepted to talk about another race and its unacceptable here too. !!

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 287):
Nobody is forcing Greece to take the money.

Well some may disagree with that they are being forced to harsh austerity which many say will not work including some EU partners and the IMF themselves. Its funny how the IMF were respected by many on here yet when they now are speaking pro debt relief they are suddenly discredited.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 283):
However, 40 from the government ranks voted NO. The government will probably fall sooner rather than later, with the hard left breaking away.

Meanwhile on the streets, some Greeks are defaulting to strikes and riots - hardly the norm investors love to see.

I wouldnt call that a sizeable majority. Do you know how many people voted in favor?

A very small amount of opportunist anarchists. Who were quickly moved off in around an hour. Less than 100. Sky News were reporting live from their suite at the Grande Britannia Hotel which looks over Syntagma Square and for most of the evening it was empty with just cars and busses passing in the background.


As for strikes what countries are not having them?

Lufthansa / German Rail

Bus Eireann ( Irish bus service ) for those that dont know.

Irish Water protestors

Civil unrest in Northern Ireland over the last days

In fact there have been more strikes over the last 12 months in other EU countries than in Greece. Lets get things into perspective.
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:02 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 282):
The reform bill has overwhelmingly been passed in the Greek parliament just now.

I don't understand how people who celebrated the referendum as one of Western democracy's moment of glory (like you, for instance) aren't up in arms about this. Two weeks ago you were 100% convinced that asking the Greek people was a fantastic idea. Tsipras did, the people spoke, he completely ignored the result. What's democratic about that?
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:32 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 294):
I don't understand how people who celebrated the referendum as one of Western democracy's moment of glory (like you, for instance) aren't up in arms about this. Two weeks ago you were 100% convinced that asking the Greek people was a fantastic idea. Tsipras did, the people spoke, he completely ignored the result. What's democratic about that?

Well its democracy. They are not accepting this willingly. They are being forced into it. If they had voted yes then the EU partners including Germany would hype it up saying ''But the Greeks voted Yes''. They voted no and that will always be remembered when it all comes crashing down in 18-24mths time. Then I will say well it was forced on them and they were bullied into taking it or being cast aside despite other EU partners and the IMF advising it wont work and was too harsh. So the Greeks said NO but have no choice.
 
AR385
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:31 pm

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...-parliament-bailout-vote/30176167/

I find this part telling: "Tsipras told parliament just before the vote, "The options I had during the 17-hour hard negotiations were specific: One was to accept an agreement with which I largely disagree, or a disorderly default."

So is he planning for an "orderly" default? He has the mandate after all...

Quoting OA260 (Reply 295):
They voted no and that will always be remembered when it all comes crashing down in 18-24mths time.

You are being optimistic I think. I don´t give it a year.
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:33 pm

Euro Bank Chief: 'Greek Debt Relief Necessary'

Discussions in the coming weeks should focus on how exactly relief can be given within the current EU framework, says the ECB head

The President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, has said it is "uncontroversial" that Greece is in need of debt relief.

The main discussion in the coming weeks should focus on how this relief can be delivered within the existing legal framework of the European Union, he told reporters on Thursday.

http://news.sky.com/story/1520101/eu...-chief-greek-debt-relief-necessary
 
victrola
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 6:11 pm

I don't think that there is anyone out there who thinks the Greek debt is payable. Looking at the situation I think the EU has decided to sacrafice Greece to serve as a lesson to other countries in the Euro. If you give in to Greece, then you will eventually have to give in to Spain, Italy, Portugal. You will also have to deal with the resentment of the people of countries, many of whom are poorer than Greece, that had to go through austerity and would additionally be expected to pick up some of the financial burden of bailing out the Greeks. Add to this the fact that Greece carries significant responsibility for its present predicament, and you have a situation where it is politically almost impossible for Europe to choose to help Greece recover.

So I expect the following scenario will unfold. More austerity will lead to a further contraction in the Greek economy. The government will then be forced to implement further austerity measures that will lead to further contractions. This downward cycle will continue until revolutionary conditions are created in the country. Perhaps this will bring someone like Golden Dawn into power in Athens. It's hard to say. However don't expect Western style democracy to survive in Greece. I would expect Greece to not only leave the European Union, but also NATO as It will no longer feel it belongs as a member of the Western democracies. Meanwhile any Greek with any talent or ability will have fled the country if at all possible. Europe will find itself saddled with a highly unstable undemocratic country in the strategically important Eastern Mediterranean.
 
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RE: Greece Default Imminent - Part 3

Thu Jul 16, 2015 6:28 pm

So according to you, balancing the books is impossible. Why ?
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