|Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 7):|
Is it actually a cycle or is that the average amount of time between each event? If it's the former, then we are not "overdue." Pet peeve of mine. It's kind of like saying that if you flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row, you're "overdue for tails." Nope. You have a 50% chance of getting tails after 10 heads and 50% chance of tails after 10 tails
Already responded to above, but per the article, the author addresses that:
It is possible to quibble with that number. Recurrence intervals are averages, and averages are tricky: ten is the average of nine and eleven, but also of eighteen and two. It is not possible, however, to dispute the scale of the problem.
|Quoting IMissPiedmont (Reply 8):|
But really, this is not a great surprise to anyone that has ever paid attention the geological history.
That's part of my point, however: the science of the Cascadia subduction zone, at least the detailed comprehension of it, it's history, and such, is fairly new. There's a lot of geological history, but there isn't a lot of human understanding of it. As the article cites, the settling of this area of the Pac NW
by non-native Americans happened well after the last major event and is now in the sweet spot, time-wise, of the next one. I think that's the reason why this still sort of is a surprise.
|Quoting doug_or (Reply 11):|
In coomon useage I bleive the Pacific Northwest generally refers to the western halves of Oregon and Washington. Northwest US could include OR,WA, ID, and MT.
Well said. I specifically said Pac NW
, for instance, would be unaffected by this, generally speaking. Folks in Pocatello wouldn't have the same fate as those in Portland.
|Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 14):|
Build like Japan does going forward (they have the strictest building codes for earthquakes). Retrofit buildings and infrastructure to withstand an earthquake. Have contingency plans on hand to be able to put out fires that will happen from ruptures gas lines and water-mains (lesson learned from the 1906 San Francisco quake).
An earthquake is harmless if you are in an open field, in fact it is probably pretty awesome. What does the damage is what humans have built and we can change that in a heartbeat.
^^^^ THIS. This is why I started the thread, because my assertion is that, candidly, we are grossly unprepared. There simply is not the robust mitigation approach in WA
that Japan has. That's problematic.
It is one thing to take calculated risks living and having major cities and civilization in an area where known and certain natural disasters occur. It's quite another to do so and not do even a modicum of legitimate planning, preparation and construction to help hedge against the worst case scenario.
I've lived in earthquake prone areas and hurricane areas. The former you can't tactically always plan for, the latter you generally can. So why would you plan MORE intensively for the latter and not the former? If you have hurricane evac plans but not earthquake evac or response plans, that's problematic.
By not doing the things that japan does now, as just an example, the Pac NW
is exacberating the consequences of an event even before it happens. That's hardly alamist, that's the truth.
|Quoting fr8mech (Reply 15):|
But, quite simply and to be honest, I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek because of the melodramatic way the OP made his post.
Melodramatic? Really? If you consider the line "This would be staggering. And it's not fear mongering to be urgently and fervently concerned about this." to be melodramatic, you don't know the definition of it. This is a forum for open discussion, is it not? Is that not the goal here? Or is it to continue to insult people and take little potshots?