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United Airline
Topic Author
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:04 pm

I predict Jeb Bush. You?
 
L410Turbolet
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:15 pm

I predict this forum will become unbearable the next 18 months or so.
 
RussianJet
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:25 pm

Donald Chump.  

Seriously, it would be hilarioius if the USA had a President with hair like that.
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
diverted
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 1:21 pm

Hopefully Bernie. He seems to be the only non-Trump candidate who isn't a puppet.
 
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notaxonrotax
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 2:58 pm

Charlie Sheen.......


No Tax On Rotax
For anybody that happens to be wondering:"yes, owning your own aircraft is a 100% worth it!"
 
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einsteinboricua
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:22 pm

I will. Give me until 2035 to plan and announce my campaign.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
kaitak
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 4:40 pm

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 1):
the next 18 months or so.

18 months?! More like eighteen days!

I don't think the Donald has a chance. The only question is how much damage he will do. It could be a lot, because he has more money than all of the others combined.

I would expect that of the "serious" candidates, Jeb Bush is probably most likely to come out on top, but how the electorate will take to a third Bush, especially after the second one being so disastrous, remains to be seen.

It'll be a repeat of1992 ... Clinton -v- Bush. And the same result.
 
Ken777
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:10 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):
It'll be a repeat of1992 ... Clinton -v- Bush. And the same result.

What? The President picked by the Supreme Court?   

On the GOP side the driftwood will float away (Huckabilly, Paul, The Forgotten, etc.) leaving the ones with real potential. The stable contenders (Bush, Kasich) and the good performers (Trump, Rubio & Walker) will go into the final fight and I believe (as of now) that it will be Bush -v- Trump. Flip a coin on who wins.

On the Democratic side I believe that Clinton will get the nomination. Bernie is really good at getting talking points on the table, but he;s not a serious potential for the office - he is just too focused on his pet topics.

Between Bush & Clinton, I believe that Clinton will win. Bush does have that albatross of the Iraq Invasion, plus the Great Recession & Housing crisis. He is also going to have some planks from the GOP convention that the public will not like, like screwing Medicare and Social Security. Add the two together and Clinton wins.

Trump -v- Clinton is a different challenge as Trump needs to show the public that he can present as Presidential. He also has to show that he can take the time to review both sides of complex situations, go through the various arguments and pick the best decision. I also don't know if the public really wants a brash President. It's bad enough over in the House. I believe that Clinton will win that one.
 
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winterlight
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:28 pm

Clinton was chosen by at the Bilderberg conference in June.
Question everything. Trust no-one.
 
Airstud
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 15, 2015 11:55 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):
but how the electorate will take to a third Bush, especially after the second one being so disastrous, remains to be seen

Jeb Bush didn't show any more support for invading Iraq than did any number of Congressional Democrats in 2002.
Pancakes are delicious.
 
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seb146
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:53 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 1):
I predict this forum will become unbearable the next 18 months or so.

It was unbearable when people started announcing with more than a year and a half left before the election.

My prediction is Hillary with Bernie or Warren VP. Trump will split the Republican vote and Fox/MSM will blame Hillary.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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scbriml
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 5:55 am

Not a Republican.






I approve this message.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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LAX772LR
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 6:49 am

It's just pointless to try to predict anything at this point. It'd only be speculation and wishful thinking.

It's just way too far out. Hell, there'll be babies born in Nov2016 whose parents haven't even met yet.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Max Q
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:05 am

Trump is on fire right now but that will fizzle out.


Jeb Bush seems to be inspiring everyone to take a long nap, talk about uninspiring.


The Repb frontrunner is still not obvious IMHO.


Hillary, will be the Dem nominee and the next President.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
Kiwirob
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:59 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 13):


The Repb frontrunner is still not obvious IMHO.

I think it is, you just mentioned him.

Quoting Max Q (Reply 13):
Trump is on fire right now but that will fizzle out.

BBC, Sky, France24 and the rest are all calling Trump the GOP frontrunner.
 
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Mortyman
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:29 pm

Joe Biden or Al Gore ...  
 
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777Jet
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:30 pm

Who Will Become The Next US President?

Somebody other than Obama  
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
apodino
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:50 pm

Both parties have a lot of issues. The democratic party establishment has gone all in on Hillary, who has a lot of baggage
now and could wind up facing criminal charges depending on what the FBI finds. The Progressive wing of the party has
rallied behind Bernie Sanders who has a great message, but may be too far left for much of this country. Aside from this
the democratic party has no bench at all. If Hillary gets the nomination and stuff comes up, she is toast. Some in the party fear
this....which is why Biden and Gore rumors are coming around. The biggest problem is any of these candidates are also very old.
O'Malley is the youngest...but he is not running a strong campaign.

On the republican side, they have a very deep bench of plenty of strong candidates...but each candidate has is own issues as well.

Top Tier

Jeb Bush - The last name is a huge millstone around his neck, and the base isn't enamoured with him either, which will
hurt him in early primary states.
Scott Walker - Won three elections in a state that voted for Obama twice. Has done a lot of good things, but has also
burned a lot of bridges. The Milwaukee arena deal has also generated criticism on both sides of the aisle, and even angered
the Koch Brothers.
Donald Trump - I don't think I need to say anything here.
Marco Rubio - He is Hispanic, and has been really into the immigration issues, which don't endear him with the base. Tea
Party credentials will make him a target of the left in a general.
Rand Paul - Rides a lot of his dads coattails and appeals to the youth vote for his libtertarian views. Being a defense hawk
hurts him in the primary, but could help him in a General.
Chris Christie - This guy is no fan of the base at all, and he seems to have burned a lot of bridges (no pun intended) on
both sides in recent months. But he is a good campaigner and for him as a republican to win reelection as Governor in
a very blue state by a landslide means don't count him out. However GOP may have a hard time with turnout in a general
if this guy is nominated.

Next Tier

Carly Fiorina - Killer debate performance has raised her stock considerably. If she gets the nomination, a Fiorina-Nikki Haley
ticket would be historic, and would totally neutralize the war on women argument. However her performance at HP
would also be ripe for attack ads.
John Kasich - I believe he would cause the most problems for democrats in a General Election. He has done an amazing job as Governor
of Ohio quietly, he is an expert on the budget from his time in Congress, and he doesn't carry a lot of baggage. However,
the base may not find him conservative enough or too much like Bohener and McConnell to win the nomination.
Ted Cruz - A Tea Party favorite, his combative style wins lots of points from the Base, and could very well improve. That being
said, his stick to principles no compromise style may not sit well with swing voters in a general.
Bobby Jindal - A two term minority governor in LA and an outspoken critic of Common Core, which has been criticized
on both sides. That being said he has some high negatives in his own state.
Ben Carson - A Washington outsider with an amazing story, and has been a great doctor for many years. He is very humble,
which is something you don't see much in politics. If he got nominated he could cause problems in a general election as
an African American. That being said, he angered the base this week when he admitted that he did the type of research
that Planned Parenthood was criticized for sponsoring after the undercover videos. Being an outsider and never holding office
will make it difficult to rally support in the establishment circles.

No Chance at all.

Rick Santorum - I like this guy as his views mirror my own. But his message is centered around Social Issues, which
based on recent supreme court rulings, wont really be much of an issue a president will deal with.
Mike Huckabee - Ditto, though some of his fiscal stances have been more liberal in recent months.
Rick Perry - For all the good things he did in Texas, when he gets onto a national scene he is just lost. The fact that he cant afford
to pay campaign staff is a good indication of where his campaign is heading.
Lindsey Graham - He is running on national security credentials, but has been criticized for being too close to the establishment. The former
will kill him in a general election, the latter means it will be hard if not impossible to be nominated.
George Pataki - Good Governor in his day, but he is past his prime and would actually be a democrat if he was from
the south with his politics
Jim Gilmore - Who is this guy anyways?

My prediction is that Hillary gets the democratic nomination, but Bernie Sanders will win a few early states and make Hillary earn it.
I honestly don't know about the republican nomination. Its so wide open. My gut is saying Marco Rubio at the moment.

I would bet money though that unless Donald Trump gets nominated, Nikki Haley will almost certainly be the GOP VP
candidate. On the democratic side, Elizabeth Warren would be the obvious pick, but given that a Republican currently
occupies the Governor's office in MA, they may not pick her. All things considered, a safer pick may be Amy Klobuchar
of MN, or Cody Booker of NJ.

To me the most intriguing General Election possible would be Fiorina-Haley vs Clinton-Warren. An all Female presidential
campaign.
 
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Aesma
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sun Aug 16, 2015 3:07 pm

Hillary will pick a male VP, IMHO.
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LAX772LR
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:00 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 16):
Somebody other than Obama

About the only safe conclusion we can jump to at this point: Obama, Bill Clinton, Bush41 and Bush43 seem to be the only few that we can safely rule out!
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
ltbewr
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:11 am

As a person with a life long interest in politics, I find the current Presidential race to be disgusting. The massive costs with its corruption by the richest and corporations, the attack ads, no real discussion of realistic policies, the far too long campaigns before the final election, early primaries in states (Iowa and NH) that don't look like America and the pathetic line up of realistic candidates of both parties show we have a terrible way to choose our next President.

I think if the Republicans can get their act together and get behind some candidate - likely Jeb Bush, they will win in 2016 although by a narrow margin, especially by white male swing voters.. My reasoning includes:
Most states are dominated by Republicans, largely anti-taxation so a huge base there.
There are many 'swing' voters who have issues with the ACA, gun rights challenges, the problems as to our social welfare systems and don't want to pay for it - especially as to Blacks and Hispanics.
The riots of locals in Ferguson, Baltimore and other cities as to unarmed Black person being shot by police many push many toward 'law and order' choices that Republicans are seen as stronger on.
Many voters will be attracted to the stronger pro-Israel, pro-war against the Islamic world including ISIS, anti-Iran nuke deal beliefs of Republicans and against Pres. Obama's policies
There is also a possible reaction to gay marriage and like social issues
Many motivated voters have a huge hate for the Clinton's and current President Obama in part due to party lines, racism and sexism as well as unpopular recent policy decisions.
Although HRC may get a few women voting for her as mainly a woman, many others are not happy she didn't curb husband Bill's sexual irresponsibility and many don't like her personally.
HRC could face criminal charges from the e-mail server scandal and there will be continuous attacks on her on Benghazi, and all kinds of old allegations that could weaken her as well as any possible replacement candidates.
You also won't get as many Black voters either due to Republican dominated changes in voting access, local voting districts, and not having a Black person running for President with Obama.
One thing that will be critical for Bush if chosen as the Republican candidate will be his choice of VP. I doubt the party will allow the disaster of another Alaskan idiot, although choosing a woman may be wise.
 
IMissPiedmont
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:18 am

Unless a miracle happens the general election will be Hilary Clinton vs someone not yet announced for the Republican Party. It matters little which one wins though, note the lack of change between what we have now and what we had before.
The day you stop learning is the day you should die.
 
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einsteinboricua
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:27 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 18):
Hillary will pick a male VP, IMHO.

O'Malley may be a good pick; he'll just have to steer clear from the #AllLivesMatter issue which is certain to weigh him down now (and certainly her if she chose him).

I can see a Clinton-Warren ticket, though I think Warren would probably enjoy being Treasury secretary instead. This ticket would unify all Democrats.

Clinton-Brown, Clinton-Beebe (frm AR gov), Clinton-Cuomo...those are rather excellent choices.

This is a long shot (there's a better chance of AA flying A380s from MIA to BGW) and call me a Huntsman fanboy, but Clinton-Huntsman...get Democrats and moderate/liberal Republicans unsatisfied with the current party establishment under a ticket.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
910A
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:49 pm

Perhaps the real question should be: who will drop out first?
 
jetwet1
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:54 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 12):
It's just pointless to try to predict anything at this point. It'd only be speculation and wishful thinking.

It's just way too far out. Hell, there'll be babies born in Nov2016 whose parents haven't even met yet.

Exactly

Quoting Max Q (Reply 13):
Jeb Bush seems to be inspiring everyone to take a long nap, talk about uninspiring.

Not saying I like Bush in any way, but it would be nice to have a "boring" president for 4 years, just get down to work and straighten out the country, though talking to my Florida Republican friends, they hate the guy.

Quoting apodino (Reply 17):
Scott Walker - Won three elections in a state that voted for Obama twice. Has done a lot of good things, but has also burned a lot of bridges. The Milwaukee arena deal has also generated criticism on both sides of the aisle, and even angered the Koch Brothers.

Well it would be one way to get Hilary into office, every union in the country will bus each and every member they have to a polling station to vote against him.

Quoting apodino (Reply 17):
John Kasich - I believe he would cause the most problems for democrats in a General Election. He has done an amazing job as Governor

He is slowly gaining momentum, out of all the candidates on both sides, he is my pick.

Quoting apodino (Reply 17):
Mike Huckabee - Ditto, though some of his fiscal stances have been more liberal in recent months.

He is done, even the most right wing wing nuts are distancing themselves from him.
 
garnetpalmetto
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:37 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 7):
What? The President picked by the Supreme Court?

You're confusing 2000 (George W. Bush v. Gore) with 1992 (George H.W. Bush v. Clinton). 1992's election didn't have anything really hinky to it (aside from Ross Perot's independent run). Hrm...a wealthy businessman runs as an independent and siphons votes away from the GOP...might this really be 1992 all over again if the Donald doesn't get the GOP nod and decides to run as an independent?
South Carolina - too small to be its own country, too big to be a mental asylum.
 
Ken777
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 5:35 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 22):
I can see a Clinton-Warren ticket, though I think Warren would probably enjoy being Treasury secretary instead.

I believe that Warren will play it smart and get more time in the Senate. She certainly has the talent to take over Treasury, but probably has more potential in the Senate. When there is no "star" like Clinton running she'll jump in fast.

She is also in the situation of being in place to raise hell for 4 years if the GOP takes the White House. She has the intellect to drown out Bernie

Quoting 910A (Reply 23):

Perhaps the real question should be: who will drop out first?

Rick Perry. Politics is about money these days and he's a few dollars short.

Quoting jetwet1 (Reply 24):
He is slowly gaining momentum

The guy presents really well and if the money holds out he should have a chance.

The issue (as e saw in the Bush II Administration) is who a rational guy will pick for the VP position and who he will pick for his Cabinet. Just think about how much better this world would have been if Bush had talked General/Secretary Powell into being his VP. No unnecessary wars and all the misery that followed.
 
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einsteinboricua
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:04 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 26):
I believe that Warren will play it smart and get more time in the Senate. She certainly has the talent to take over Treasury, but probably has more potential in the Senate. When there is no "star" like Clinton running she'll jump in fast.

I don't question her knowledge or mean to belittle her, but I think this is the best course for now for her. She can make a name for herself within the Senate...who knows? Maybe even reach to be Whip or Leader.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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LAX772LR
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:26 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 22):
This is a long shot (there's a better chance of AA flying A380s from MIA to BGW) and call me a Huntsman fanboy, but Clinton-Huntsman...get Democrats and moderate/liberal Republicans unsatisfied with the current party establishment under a ticket.

I would LOVE to see that, as I'm a huge Huntsman fan.

Though, I think an even better (and IMO more likely) ticket would be Clinton + either of the two Castro twins from Texas, probably Julian.





Quoting jetwet1 (Reply 24):
every union in the country will bus each and every member they have to a polling station to vote against him.

Unfortunately, the facts just don't bare that out.

During his recall election, which was over union-busting, Walker actually received 38% of the union vote!

Analysis/Speculation was that it was from workers disgruntled into feeling that they'd been forced into unionized labor, as opposed to having the option. As much as I hate to say it, I'm willing to bet that there's an underlying element there that could be exploited nationwide.

Granted, I do believe that unions are solidly in the Dem/Progressive corner, but the idea that organized labor will invariably vote Dem is unfortunately a false notion.


Quoting garnetpalmetto (Reply 25):
1992's election didn't have anything really hinky to it (aside from Ross Perot's independent run

That was no real wrench-in-the-gears either.
Contrary to popular GOP myth, Perot didn't come anywhere close to costing Bush41 the election in '92.

By account of nearly all exit polling, he pulled an even 38% from both sides equally, and without him in the race, Clinton's numbers actually went up, whereas Bush's stayed within the margin of error. Clinton was going to win either way.

Perot's lesbian stunt had no apparent effect either.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LMP737
Posts: 5977
Joined: Wed May 08, 2002 4:06 pm

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:04 am

Quoting apodino (Reply 17):
Carly Fiorina - Killer debate performance has raised her stock considerably. If she gets the nomination, a Fiorina-Nikki Haley

Until she's asked questions on her inept leadership at HP.

Quoting apodino (Reply 17):
Bobby Jindal - A two term minority governor in LA and an outspoken critic of Common Core, which has been criticized
on both sides. That being said he has some high negatives in his own state.

His state is is in worse shape now than when he took office.

Quoting apodino (Reply 17):
John Kasich - I believe he would cause the most problems for democrats in a General Election. He has done an amazing job as Governor
of Ohio quietly, he is an expert on the budget from his time in Congress, and he doesn't carry a lot of baggage. However,
the base may not find him conservative enough or too much like Bohener and McConnell to win the nomination.

He committed the sin of helping the poor. You might as well curse Ronald Reagan at the convention
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
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LAX772LR
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Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:05 pm

Quoting LMP737 (Reply 29):
His state is is in worse shape now than when he took office.

Wayyyyy worse. He took a state that had a $900Million surplus, even post-Katrina, and turned it into a $1.6Billion deficit.

Particularly troubling considering that:
1) the Louisiana state constitution expressly forbids running at a deficit, and

2) Jindal half-assedly attempted to address it by cutting things such as funding for hospitals, police, mental health, healthcare in general, and the state's flagship university system (LSU) was gutted to the point where it had to prepare a bankruptcy..... while still retaining his pet religious projects such as abstinence-only education and religious alternatives (to science and history) presented in public schools.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Raventech
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:25 pm

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:48 am

I guess I'm in the minority in thinking Hillary's shot at the white house is deteriorating rapidly (if not already gone). This is the first issue that has stuck to her and is not going away, largely because instead of acting like someone who is innocent, she has been acting like a politician with something to hide.

It's the Opposite issue that Jeb Bush has in that his last name is baggage but to an otherwise likable person. Hillary has a large section people that have been turned off by her that they would just stay home than vote for her. Really I think the only reason she is still in the race is the fact that she is a Clinton, anyone else would have already dropped out.

Even if she gets the nomination, it will be a very hard road because she is not seen as a particularly likable person out of her core supporters. Her campaign will have to take a tone of "Would you really rather that Republican as president". Recent history has shown that when a campaign has that tone it is almost always doomed to fail.

2004 Bush v Carey - The Left was absolutely convinced that everyone hated bush and they could run anyone and win. John Carey won nomination but given that there was low likability along with the fact that Bush was still largely liked (relative to now) by the country resulted in a win by a large margin

2008 Obama v McCain - At this point due to the bad timing of the economic downturn, McCain had to take the "but he will be worse". So that combined with the fact that Obama is Extremely Likable resulted in the practical Landslide.

2012 Obama v Romney - The Right was absolutely convinced that everyone was sick of Obama (see a pattern here) and that they could run a ham sandwich and win. Romney ended up winning nomination and unlike the previous cases he is actually reasonably likable, relative to Obama is was still significantly less. Combined with the fact that the campaign tone was "Vote against Obama instead of a vote for Romney" ended up in a near repeat of 08.

Simply put if Clinton wins nomination then for most republican matchups it will result in a "but do you really want him to win". Only exception to this is if Trump actually succeeds in getting the republican nomination, in which case a blunt description of the race will be Ebenesier Scrooge V The Wicked Witch of the West.
 
LMP737
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Joined: Wed May 08, 2002 4:06 pm

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:28 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 30):
2) Jindal half-assedly attempted to address it by cutting things such as funding for hospitals, police, mental health, healthcare in general, and the state's flagship university system (LSU) was gutted to the point where it had to prepare a bankruptcy..... while still retaining his pet religious projects such as abstinence-only education and religious alternatives (to science and history) presented in public schools.

As some people have pointed out Jindal appears more concerned about maintaining the no taxes pledge to maintain ideological purity in the eyes of the GOP than the people in his own state.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
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LAX772LR
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:38 pm

Quoting LMP737 (Reply 32):
As some people have pointed out Jindal appears more concerned about maintaining the no taxes pledge to maintain ideological purity in the eyes of the GOP than the people in his own state.

....than following the state constitution.

Fixed it for ya.  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1852
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:00 pm

Kasich FTW Lets go!

Filler Filler
 
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zckls04
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:24 pm

Quoting raventech (Reply 31):
2004 Bush v Carey

Who the hell is Carey? Lol.

I agree with most of your post though. But a year is an awfully long time in politics- unless funds dry up I'm expecting she'll still be the nominee. Whether she can overcome her intrinsic lack of likability is another matter. Likability gets you a long way in US politics.
Four Granavox Turbines!
 
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ER757
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:48 pm

Quoting raventech (Reply 31):
I guess I'm in the minority in thinking Hillary's shot at the white house is deteriorating rapidly

+1 - I am in that same minority I guess. I really think this email fiasco is going to sink her boat. And as someone up thread pointed out the Dems have put all their eggs in her basket and face a pretty big challenge if she does go down in flames. Yes, Bernie may be polling high numbers now but so is Trump on the GOP side and while all these early opinion polls are nice, the only poll that really counts is the one where people actually mark a ballot and I seriously doubt that most folks that say they are for Trump would actually cast their vote for him when it counted. Not sure about Bernie but if he gets the Dem nomination I don't think he can win the general election.
 
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zckls04
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:18 pm

This makes interesting watching.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAEmeEwMw2M

She is just awful.
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Ken777
Posts: 9995
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:46 am

Quoting garnetpalmetto (Reply 25):
might this really be 1992 all over again if the Donald doesn't get the GOP nod and decides to run as an independent?

That will be really interesting, especially if Trump pulls in more votes than a Radicalized Conservative Republican.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 36):
I really think this email fiasco is going to sink her boat.

I don't. As I posted in another link the reality of classification is starting to come out:

Quote:

On Wednesday, the Clinton camp got a new piece of ammunition for their argument: a heavily-redacted transcript the State Department just released of a conversation former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had with CIA Director William Colby in 1974 about the imminent Turkish invasion of Cyprus.

In the transcript made public by the National Security Archive, the State Department deleted all the substantive portions of the conversation, asserting that they were classified national security secrets and contained sensitive details about the CIA’s personnel and intelligence-gathering.

However, researchers at the non-profit document archive thought the transcript looked familiar and soon realized why: seven years ago the State Department issued an official history volume that published it in full, as unclassified. In fact, the unredacted copy was sitting on the agency’s website even as officials sent out to the group the largely-whited-out version.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/0...ocuments-121532.html#ixzz3jIwp0bTY

That is a pretty good demonstration that the GOP BS is low level political that is a dead end for people who have a brain.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 36):
Not sure about Bernie but if he gets the Dem nomination I don't think he can win the general election.

Trump would eat Bernie up and spit him out. As good as Bernie is on a limited range of issues I don't believe that the scope of his understanding and abilities are broad enough to be a President.
 
MrChips
Posts: 933
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 2:56 pm

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:54 am

Vermin Supreme.

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pu
Posts: 1364
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:08 am

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:59 am

Quoting raventech,reply=312004 Bush v KERRY:
...resulted in a win by a large margin

Eh. Look closer.

Bush's margin of victory in the popular vote was the smallest ever for a reelected incumbent president. Worse, the electoral vote count was exceptionally close: 286 to 251.



There are NO presidential elections since 1988 that look strong for Republicans. Demographics. Changing.






Pu
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2990
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:18 pm

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
I predict Jeb Bush. You?

The Colorado Rockies have a better shot at winning the World Series this year than Jeb winning the GOP nomination.

Trump's popularity has thrown a big wrench into the equation. He's now beating Jeb his home state - Florida.
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
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einsteinboricua
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:53 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 38):
That is a pretty good demonstration that the GOP BS is low level political that is a dead end for people who have a brain.

If Clinton drops out, you can bet that Benghazi and the email thing will die a quiet death. Notice how the GOP isn't looking into pressing charges against her or anything.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
bjorn14
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US Presidential Election - Part 1

Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:00 pm

I think Hillary doesn't make it to the primaries. She has a "health issue" or is indicted thus opening up for a Biden/Warren ticket. Who knows on the Pubbie side.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 12855
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:24 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 43):
I think Hillary doesn't make it to the primaries. She has a "health issue" or is indicted thus opening up for a Biden/Warren ticket.

That's probably the most "out there" theory I've heard thus far...  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:32 am

New hypothesis: Jeb Bush is bad at his job of running for president

Rachel Maddow skewers Jeb Bush on her Program

"New hypothesis: Jeb Bush is bad at his job of running for president"

20 Minutes - Excellent presentation about Bush that Fox hasn't been able to deliver yet, if at all...

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StarAC17
Posts: 3694
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:47 pm

Quoting jetwet1 (Reply 24):
Well it would be one way to get Hilary into office, every union in the country will bus each and every member they have to a polling station to vote against him.

Considering that Scott Walker has the backing of the Koch's he has the advantage in the messaging game.

Quoting raventech (Reply 31):
2004 Bush v Carey - The Left was absolutely convinced that everyone hated bush and they could run anyone and win. John Carey won nomination but given that there was low likability along with the fact that Bush was still largely liked (relative to now) by the country resulted in a win by a large margin

While true he wasn't the most likable canditate the reason that he lost was because of swiftboating which was very effective, he is a boring intellectual (similar to Jeb), and the GOP ran on a wedge issue of putting in a consititutional ammendment banning same sex marriage.

The GOP right now is running on another wedge issue of repealing or ammending the 14th ammendment to take away birthright citizenship and it is simply red meat for the base because on the issues at hand the majority of American side with the democrats.

Quoting raventech (Reply 31):
2008 Obama v McCain - At this point due to the bad timing of the economic downturn, McCain had to take the "but he will be worse". So that combined with the fact that Obama is Extremely Likable resulted in the practical Landslide.

Even without the financial crisis the GOP had no chance of winning that one. W's legacy doomed the GOP in 2008 with things like Iraq, the patriot act etc.

Quoting LMP737 (Reply 32):
As some people have pointed out Jindal appears more concerned about maintaining the no taxes pledge to maintain ideological purity in the eyes of the GOP than the people in his own state.

He would be a dead man walking if he did hike taxes. Grover Norquist is one of the most powerful figures in Washington and the GOP lawmakers and Governors are scared of him to even consider hiking taxes.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 42):

If Clinton drops out, you can bet that Benghazi and the email thing will die a quiet death. Notice how the GOP isn't looking into pressing charges against her or anything.

They have nothing and they will continue to witchhunt anyone whom is in the white house or leading the polls to get into it. In the GOP world room their attitude is that the presidency is the right of the GOP and a democrat there is not legitimate and this has been the case since Bubba won in 1992.
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solarflyer22
Posts: 1519
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 7:07 pm

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:12 pm

Does anyone actually care? There is surprisingly little impact regardless of who is in power. The most significant impact has been Obamacare over the past 10 years and if you already had health insurance its not much of a impact.

I still think its Hillary though. I just cant see another Bush getting elected or Donald Trump.

Jeb might not be that bad but his advisers and donors are all Bush 2 era cronies down to none other than Paul the Idiot Wolfowitz.
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2990
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:13 pm

At 74 Biden would be the second oldest Presidential candidate in history beside Bernie Sanders. Not that anyone really cares...

Good debate question: Should there be an age limit for Presidential candidates?
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
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seb146
Posts: 21512
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

US Presidential Election - Part 1

Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:09 am

I want to retract my earlier post. Instead, being fourteen months out, I would offer this scenario:

Bernie Sanders/Jon Huntsman on a left wing independent ticket
Gary Locke/Elizabeth Warren on a Democratic ticket
Gordon Smith/Carly Fiorina on a Republican ticket
Hillary Clinton/Marco Rubio on a right wing independent ticket

My point is: it is FOURTEEN MONTHS out. Ronald McDonald could announce tomorrow for the Green Party but would anyone care and would that make a difference? Nope. Because we still have fourteen LOOOOOOOONG months....
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
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