According to the BBC, Alexis Tsipras is to call a snap Greek election for the 20th September.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34007859
This is going to be fun - let me guess, the Greek people throw Tsipras out for going against the platform he was elected on, some new anti-austerity politicians get into power, throw out everything achieved over the past few months and round and round the merri-go-round we go...
Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
I lost interest in all this mess long ago.
Europe is a disaster. soon it'll cease to exist as many of us remember..
Europe is a disaster. soon it'll cease to exist as many of us remember..
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting moo (Thread starter): |
Not really "News" this was expected to happen for the past month or so.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting moo (Thread starter): the Greek people throw Tsipras out for going against the platform he was elected on, some new anti-austerity politicians get into power, throw out everything achieved over the past few months and round and round the merri-go-round we go... |
Tsipras has delivered something very important to Greece - he has the IMF now understanding that Greece needs to have their debt reduced and the IMF is acting on that. Notice that the IMF was not in the bailout package that Germany put together. It was totally a German deal, with a German company getting to buy regional airports tossed in.
Come fall the IMF will make their move and you can look for a haircut on the deal: 30 - 50% Reductions and a change in the payment schedules. Just like 1953
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting moo (Thread starter): This is going to be fun - let me guess, the Greek people throw Tsipras out |
He has already resigned.
http://internacional.elpais.com/inte.../actualidad/1440060506_784849.html
| Quoting moo (Thread starter): throw out everything achieved over the past few months and round and round the merri-go-round we go... |
As well they should. This was no news to anybody. Congrats on Tsipras for a good Strategic move. The new package was not only unacceptable, but unviable.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting Ken777 (Reply 3): |
Correct he has managed to make them tell the truth and realise the debts are too much to sustain without relief something that was unheard of before.
Your assumptions of a 30-50% haircut are pretty much spot on and about what is realistically being whispered about behind closed doors in the EU too.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting OA260 (Reply 5): Your assumptions of a 30-50% haircut are pretty much spot on and about what is realistically being whispered about behind closed doors in the EU too. |
The interesting part for me is how the other countries in the "P.I.G.S." group will react. If you look at their Debt to GDP Ratios how many are at risk? Maybe not Greek levels in the ratio, but levels that damage the economy. Maybe haircuts are not need - maybe just a limit on the interest rate that can be charged and a repayment schedule based on the economic performance - just like the 1953.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting Ken777 (Reply 6): The interesting part for me is how the other countries in the "P.I.G.S." group will react. If you look at their Debt to GDP Ratios how many are at risk? |
In the case of Spain. Once Rajoy is gone, the new government will certainly look for some type of Debt relief
Portugal will certainly do the same
Italy won´t be far behind.
Given how the world´s economic outlook is rather bleak and turning bleaker by the minute, if Europe keeps on with this austerity crap, they will remain stagnated for years to come.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting Ken777 (Reply 3): Tsipras has delivered something very important to Greece - he has the IMF now understanding that Greece needs to have their debt reduced and the IMF is acting on that. |
Well if we follow along, the Greeks were more interested in Europe versus the IMF hence the desire to remain in the Eurozone.
At the end of the day this can be regarded in some circles as a failure of leadership, if the best thing for the nation was to leave the Euro then the leaders should have also put that option to the people versus claiming as they did that they took more austerity - which the people elected a government who was against it - because the population wanted to remain in the Eurozone. AT times it almost sounds as if the government is blaming the tougher measures on the desires of the people.
I think at the end of the day the population want a viable economy with hope for the young and security for the old, whether that is in or out of the Eurozone is the question for the leadership.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting par13del (Reply 8): |
As we discussed at great length on the other numerous threads if a referendum was put to the Greek people on whether to leave the Eurozone or stay in the results would be an overwhelming Yes to stay in so the countries best bet is to seek as much debt relief and a sustainable realistic plan going forward. That is something any new leadership should continue to work on. Mr Tsipras may have had to sign up to the current plan but he certainly catapulted the issue of debt relief to where it needed to go. If they dont take action then they will loose 100% of the money lent due to Greece officially going bust in 12/24 months time depending on how far they keep kicking the can down the street.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting OA260 (Reply 9): As we discussed at great length on the other numerous threads if a referendum was put to the Greek people on whether to leave the Eurozone or stay in the results would be an overwhelming Yes to stay in |
I know we did and I'm not so sure it accurate, after all, did Greeks think the EU would treat them any differently than what was done to the other members of the PIGS group?
A major sticking point in the entire negotiations was just that, how would the other members react if Greece received a haircut. So with that knowledge - which was around before the last election-, when the Greeks elected their current government on an anti-austerity platform, everything should have been on the table, including leaving the Eurozone, going to Russia, China or even letting the IMF lead the way.
Going to the EU meant only one thing, more austerity, if they attempted to use the threat of leaving the Eurozone as a club they sure got nothing for that threat, maybe because the leaders let them know it was an idle threat only as they claimed the people wanted to stay in.
Thing is that there will be pain, the issue is how much and for how long, with no debt relief you know it will be long, very long.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting KLMA330 (Reply 1): I lost interest in all this mess long ago. Europe is a disaster. soon it'll cease to exist as many of us remember.. |
Just because there are bad news (this one isn't, BTW, it's democracy, now Turkey having new elections because Erdogan doesn't have enough power, that's a disaster) doesn't mean it's that bad. Is the US doomed because we hear every week about people shot in mass murders or cop abuses ?
| Quoting Ken777 (Reply 3): Come fall the IMF will make their move and you can look for a haircut on the deal: 30 - 50% Reductions and a change in the payment schedules. |
IMF doesn't have any move to make, as it can't make any haircut itself.
| Quoting AR385 (Reply 4): He has already resigned. |
Doesn't resigning in that case just means calling elections ?
| Quoting moo (Thread starter): This is going to be fun - let me guess, the Greek people throw Tsipras out for going against the platform he was elected on, some new anti-austerity politicians get into power, throw out everything achieved over the past few months and round and round the merri-go-round we go... |
I'm betting he will get an even bigger landslide than last time. There is nobody to even try to challenge him.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting AR385 (Reply 7): Given how the world´s economic outlook is rather bleak and turning bleaker by the minute, if Europe keeps on with this austerity crap, they will remain stagnated for years to come. |
Austerity has been a failure in the EU. Driving Greece deeper in their economic hole isn't going to work, but it does hold off the crisis for a while. Maybe the IMF can generate the necessary pressure for an effective haircut this fall. I doubt that they will stay into the Trokia if they are not successful in lowering the Greek debt.
| Quoting par13del (Reply 8): if the best thing for the nation was to leave the Euro then the leaders should have also put that option to the people versus claiming as they did that they took more austerity |
Wait until the haircut takes place so debt will not be in Euros. That also gives them a chance to start printing and minting a new currency for the post Euro era.
| Quoting par13del (Reply 8): think at the end of the day the population want a viable economy with hope for the young and security for the old, whether that is in or out of the Eurozone is the question for the leadership. |
I agree, but I believe that it will end up out of the Eurozone. Oddly the key indicator for me was China devaluing their currency to move their economy forward. Countries like the P.I.G.S. can't do that as they are in chains with the Euro. With Germany clearly preferring austerity of these countries there may well be a real need for Greeks to get under their unsuccessful rules.
Imagine Greeks seeing government incentives to improve the economy.
| Quoting OA260 (Reply 9): Mr Tsipras may have had to sign up to the current plan but he certainly catapulted the issue of debt relief to where it needed to go. |
Really? He has the IMF now pushing for a haircut and new payment terms. It was pretty clear that he was not going to win against Germany with Her Holiness in charge so the IMF move was a pretty significant success.
| Quoting OA260 (Reply 9): If they don't take action then they will loose 100% of the money lent due to Greece officially going bust in 12/24 months time depending on how far they keep kicking the can down the street. |
And after the battle Merkel waged against Greece there will be a lot of people who won't shed a tear for any losses she gets hits with.
| Quoting par13del (Reply 10): Going to the EU meant only one thing, more austerity, |
And, as has been proven, that means economic failure if there was no 1953 type financial help. If Germany cannot work with the IMF on debt reduction then they will deserve what ever they loose in a crash.
| Quoting par13del (Reply 10): Thing is that there will be pain, the issue is how much and for how long, with no debt relief you know it will be long, very long. |
if there is no debt relief then Greece should be printing their own currency and tell Germany to go to hell. Default on those loans, move out of the Eurozone and then move to manage their own economy without Her Holiness sticking her finger in.
| Quoting Aesma (Reply 11): I'm betting he will get an even bigger landslide than last time. |
I sure hope so. He has been very successful working with the IMF and maybe even Her Holiness in secret discussions.
RE: Greek Election To Be Called For September 20th
| Quoting Aesma (Reply 11): |
Elections are the least of Turkeys problems now. The current security situation unfolding is actually a dangerous threat on EU borders especially if it escalates further.
| Quoting par13del (Reply 10): |
Of course there will be pain just like there has been which has effected the most vulnerable in society for 6 years or more now. The question is can they come up with a solution to avert a crisis every 6 months which is not good for both sides.