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billreid
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Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:07 pm

My biggest fear for Qatar, Emirates and Etihad has always been a change in the political scenario in the Middle East.
I am amazed how this is never mentioned.

From a risk perspective the AB is a French EU product. A loss of Emirates demand because of extremism could be devastating.
We all know Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have done little to support refugees. No camps, no visas, no support.

If something dramatic were to happen to reduce travel through DXB, Similar to Sharm, would Emirates demand be deeply reduced?
The IS killed tourism to Egypt, in reality doing more damage to the Arab economy than to the Russians.
We all thought doing a bad deed in Arabia wouldn't happen but it has.
Will millions avoid the region when hubbing?

Why would AB, a French company take this risk after 13-11-2015?
They know one "little" attack could kill demand for frames and and do damage to the west as well.
One little attack could kill all the ME airlines.
Why would they risk billions on the most unstable area of the planet?

This is a serious question that AB and Boeing need to consider. Demand could die very quickly.

So what would you do if you were AB?
Risk billions or play it safe after last week?
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
 
ec99
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:57 pm

I would guess AB is certainly aware of the risk you describe. Having a single customer be responsible for most of a types orders is always risky and having that customer be in the middle east is probably a little more risky than if it was say, AA or CX.

That said I would not rate the UAE or Qatar as real Daesh targets. These nations may not be financially supporting ISIS anymore, but ideologically they are all are Sunni Muslims. Daesh hasn’t come out strongly against the UAE or Qatar and my believe is that these theocratic Sunni monarchies are low on Daesh’s target list.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:11 pm

Quoting billreid (Thread starter):
We all thought doing a bad deed in Arabia wouldn't happen but it has.
Will millions avoid the region when hubbing?

Who did think it would not happen ? Terrorism against tourists is not new in Egypt, and it has become uncomfortably common in muslim countries from Tunisia to Bali. UAE and Qatar may have better paid security forces, but are not untouchable in any way.

And yes, i avoid the region. I also avoid airlines from muslim states.
"Kill the disbelievers wherever you find them" says the Quran. Makes one really feel wellcome there.

The A380 may depend on EK's orders, but Airbus as a company does not. If the ME3 somehow disappeared tomorrow other airlines would fill the void in a very short time and expand their business. And they would need planes. In a year, nobody would notice.
 
billreid
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:31 pm

I thought ISIL would not damage other Moslim societies. Sharm is an economic disaster right now, thanks to ISIL.

I am shocked at the lack of comments.
I guess the average aviation nerd doesnt think about the impact of world events kn travel. It actually is shamefull not to address the largest issue for the industry, terrorism???
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
 
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cougar15
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:33 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 2):
And yes, i avoid the region. I also avoid airlines from muslim states.
"Kill the disbelievers wherever you find them" says the Quran. Makes one really feel wellcome there.

right, throw them all in one bucket, they are all terrorists! Forgive my irony! but then, certain little mountain nations do have rather right wing views!
All 3 carriers mentioned above will strive thru the current Situation, as they have done in umpteeen (ME) regional conflicts & wars and A&B will continue to enjoy their orders.
Market dinamics are in place now and as much as many want to Change that, the ME3 arte here to stay and me (the consumer) loves the choices & service levels they offer me after years of being ´hostage´ of the EU3 gang and their alliance partners!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
Flighty
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:35 pm

I think it is a great point. And yes, mid-east terror could directly kill the A380 program.

If the unthinkable happened... an A380 incident at DXB... you can bet the market is dead.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:36 pm

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 4):
they are all terrorists!

No, they are not all terrorists. But I am not keen on finding out who is and who isn't.
And nowadays, all terrorists have a connection to the middle east and Islam.
Baader-Meinhof, Brigate Rossi, ETA, IRA - they are all gone.
 
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cougar15
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:43 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 5):
If the unthinkable happened... an A380 incident at DXB... you can bet the market is dead.

Right, and Delta will be there to pick up the pieces (Frames)  
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
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scbriml
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:45 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 2):
And yes, i avoid the region. I also avoid airlines from muslim states.

Paranoid, much? Do you also avoid New York, London, Paris, Madrid, etc? Sounds like the terrorists have won.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:49 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 8):

Why would i avoid places that i like ?
 
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speedbored
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:52 pm

Quoting billreid (Thread starter):
So what would you do if you were AB?
Risk billions or play it safe after last week?

If I were Airbus, apart from contingency planning for the possibility of terrorist actions directly affecting the company, I would do nothing other than carry on as normal. Looking back at major terrorist events in history shows that the world is pretty good at recovering from them, even if they initially have a huge impact.

If every business decided not to risk investing in the future because of the possibility of future terrorist events affecting the business then no business would have a future.

The day that we allow the possibility of terrorist "actions" to stop us continuing with life/business as usual is the day that we let them win.
 
Capt.Fantastic
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:52 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 2):
And yes, i avoid the region. I also avoid airlines from muslim states.
"Kill the disbelievers wherever you find them" says the Quran. Makes one really feel wellcome there.

I appeal to the mods to maintain AVIATION discussions here. This sort of nonsense has no place here
 
billreid
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:39 pm

Quoting Capt.Fantastic (Reply 11):
Quoting Capt.Fantastic (Reply 11):

This absolute is critical to aviation. But given your comment i suppose you profess 9/11 nevered occurred and was a cover up.
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
 
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enzo011
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:45 pm

This is a legitimate concern for Airbus and the A380 and A380neo, however how does this not concern Boeing and the 777X? Both companies have projects that rely on the ME3 and if something were to happen to curb their growth or operations, both companies will be in a tight spot but not something that will bring about the end of either.
 
Sooner787
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:51 pm

What concerns me right now are all the ME3 flights to/from North America

that cross over some rather hostile territory right now. Iran, Iraq, Syria.

We don't need a repeat of the Malaysia shoot down over eastern Ukraine.
 
2175301
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:51 pm

Quoting Capt.Fantastic (Reply 11):

While I agree that some of the post add nothing to the discussion and should be deleted; this is not one of them.

Quoting the Quran - even if it is a partial quote that is misapplied by many - is just as valid as partial quotes of other things that are misapplied (be that regulations, etc).

In this case I would suggest that the original poster of this quote do some research to gain a better understanding of the context of this quote.

However, it can certainly be said that extremist (of many religions) also use quotes out of context to justify their actions; and such use can cause just fear in people.

Have a great day,
 
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Qatara340
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:00 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 2):
And yes, i avoid the region. I also avoid airlines from muslim states.
"Kill the disbelievers wherever you find them" says the Quran. Makes one really feel wellcome there.


Good riddance. Last thing we need in the region is another racist.
لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
 
RottenRay
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:10 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 5):
If the unthinkable happened... an A380 incident at DXB... you can bet the market is dead.



That really hasn't been the case with hijackings or terrorist attacks so far - I can't think of a single airline or aircraft type which was shunned so badly that it caused a failure. (I'm not an expert, so if someone can point out factual data here, I'll thank them for teaching me something.)

The buying public is more likely to avoid a location rather than a carrier or airframe.

I'll give you this: The ME3 is a unique business environment. It will certainly be worth watching and learning from, if IS were to break its promise about not hurting middle east interests.

Cheers!
 
texl1649
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:24 pm

A disproportionate amount of global air travel/commerce is routed through a few ME airports/carriers where very little industrial production/vacation/recreation actually takes place. That is and will remain a valid concern for the industry. I'd argue it is a greater threat to Boeing as the A380 is a comparatively minor part of Airbus profitability now or in the future. The 779 program is a much bigger deal to Boeing, corporate egos aside.

It's pretty likely at some point to happen, IMHO.
 
JHwk
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:29 pm

Actually, if an EK 380 was shot down in the ME, it would likely boost orders for the 380, as other airlines would move in and replace the capacity. Total flight through the region might decrease, given presumably higher prices, but the 380 program isn't likely to be killed in the process.
 
ukoverlander
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:05 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 2):
And yes, i avoid the region. I also avoid airlines from muslim states.
"Kill the disbelievers wherever you find them" says the Quran. Makes one really feel wellcome there.

They should make pills for this.....

                                                                          
 
tortugamon
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:12 pm

Quoting billreid (Thread starter):
My biggest fear for Qatar, Emirates and Etihad has always been a change in the political scenario in the Middle East.

Yeah it would be really bad if there was a major war involving the World powers in Syria where scores are dying, and an active war (Restoring Hope) with Saudi Arabia in Yemen, active bombings in Israel and Lebanon killing scores of people, planes getting blown out of they sky in Egypt, active military options in Iraq and Afghanistan and an Iran that keeps escalating...that would be terrible for the ME3....oh wait, all of that is happening.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 13):

This is a legitimate concern for Airbus and the A380 and A380neo, however how does this not concern Boeing and the 777X?

Of course it is a concern for both. However if you have one customer its more of a risk. Compared to the A380neo the 77X looks like an A330 in terms of broad customer base.

Quoting billreid (Reply 3):
It actually is shamefull not to address the largest issue for the industry, terrorism???

Its kind of naive to think the aviation world is going to completely turn on its head and the ME3 are going to practically go out of business from another event. Terrorists hijacked 4 planes on 9/11 and did what they did in the biggest aviation market in the World, are you envisioning something worse than that? Commercial aviation survived. Hurt certainly. They will adapt.


tortugamon
 
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Polot
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:37 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 3):
I thought ISIL would not damage other Moslim societies. Sharm is an economic disaster right now, thanks to ISIL.

ISIS/ISIL/whatever they are called now is hardly friendly to every Muslim society. They hate Iran for example.

Things will only be bad for the ME3 if terrorist start specifically, and consistently, targeting their planes and hubs (and by hubs I mean the airport, not just the hub city). That so far has not happened.
 
waly777
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:40 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 12):

And yet...14 years after 9/11 US carriers are the most profitable in the world. An attack isn't suddenly going to turn everything upside down.

Yes, it will slow down growth but things will pick up and return. However, hopefully an attack does not happen.
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
N415XJ
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:33 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 2):
And yes, i avoid the region. I also avoid airlines from muslim states.
"Kill the disbelievers wherever you find them" says the Quran. Makes one really feel wellcome there.

*cough*They entered into a covenant to seek the Lord, the God of their fathers, with all their heart and soul; and everyone who would not seek the Lord, the God of Israel, was to be put to death, whether small or great, whether man or woman. (2 Chronicles 15:12-13 NAB)*cough**cough
 
lhrnue
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:37 pm

Most ridiculous thread on A.Net ever.
 
Capt.Fantastic
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:46 pm

Quoting lhrnue (Reply 25):

Most ridiculous thread on A.Net ever.

Yes, I agree.

I'd like to mention that comments such as this one..

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 6):
And nowadays, all terrorists have a connection to the middle east and Islam.
Baader-Meinhof, Brigate Rossi, ETA, IRA - they are all gone.

are completely irrelevant to any aviation discussion. I believe we can have productive, thought-provoking dialogue without injecting personal biases.

and those who wish to discuss religious scripture, can do so in the non-aviation forum.

Peace,
Jim

[Edited 2015-11-19 15:48:20]
 
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rotating14
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:05 am

I have thought of this for a long time. The thing is that terrorists don't really think in terms of "hhmmm we're going with the _____ because of the RR engines". They just want to find the easiest crack to create a door. The airport in Egypt was the crack. The places where the A380 flies don't have this problem sine those are major airports with security checks almost everywhere.


What COULD happen is that if an A380 were to nose dive to earth, the media would put fear in fliers by saying that terrorists are targeting large jumbo aircraft. People would then pay attention to what they are flying on. The aviation industry as a whole would survive if 3 A380's nose dived into the ground tomorrow. You'd have security checks made to a greater degree and then life would go on.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:18 am

Quoting JHwk (Reply 19):
if an EK 380 was shot down in the ME, it would likely boost orders for the 380, as other airlines would move in and replace the capacity.

.....huh???


Quoting rotating14 (Reply 27):
What COULD happen is that if an A380 were to nose dive to earth

QF came close to showing us. And it had nothing to do with terrorism.


Quoting rotating14 (Reply 27):
People would then pay attention to what they are flying on

Not for long.
As we've seen with the DC10 and 787 groundings, the public will **VERY** quickly 1) stop caring, and 2) forget.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
rbavfan
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:00 am

Quoting billreid (Thread starter):
Why would AB, a French company take this risk after 13-11-2015?

Because they are a German Company, not a French one could be one reason. The other is right now they need to go where the money is.
 
GSPSPOT
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:15 am

And yet these are all things that airline pax (and potential pax), regardless of their creed, seriously consider (rightfully so) before deciding which airline to fly, or even WHETHER to fly at all internationally.

[Edited 2015-11-19 19:30:43]
Great Lakes, great life.
 
VX321
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:18 am

Quoting Qatara340 (Reply 16):

First off, I'd like to share my opinion on the topic. I highly doubt one accident/shootdown of an A380, B777,etc. would destroy the program. ie.- the B777 didn't loose orders after either MH crash. While the A380 is much,much,much more heavily reliant on the ME3, I don't think Airbus itself wants t build an A380NEO if they have to. The next aircraft that Airbus developed and is pushing hard is the A350. Additionally, their focus on the A330NEO as well tells me that they recognize the mistake they made in building so many A380s. The airplane,while wonderful,only works for a few operators. I could see Airbus WANTING to drop the A380 in favor of smaller aircraft that can be sold to a variety of global customers ranging from advanced to developing economies. Very few routes and economies have the need for an A380. Hence, Airbus may want to kill the program,but EK stands in their way.
As for the racism, nothing that has been said is racist. Islam is a religion,not a race. Finally, if one can't handle hearing negatives about their culture or religion, that shows just how fragile your ego is. People will disagree with you, offend you and make you feel bad. Instead of ignoring it or pulling some card(race, gender, orientation,etc.), diplomatically deal the comment.
 
JayJ
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:22 am

Interesting post, I have often wondered this too.
 
enzedder
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:27 am

kia ora

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 2):
"Kill the disbelievers wherever you find them" says the Quran.

Deuteronomy 17:
2 If there be found among you, within any of thy gates which the LORD thy God giveth thee, man or woman, that hath wrought wickedness in the sight of the LORD thy God, in transgressing his covenant,
3 And hath gone and served other gods, and worshipped them, either the sun, or moon, or any of the host of heaven, which I have not commanded;
4 And it be told thee, and thou hast heard of it, and enquired diligently, and, behold, it be true, and the thing certain, that such abomination is wrought in Israel:
5 Then shalt thou bring forth that man or that woman, which have committed that wicked thing, unto thy gates, even that man or that woman, and shalt stone them with stones, till they die.

old testament.

better avoid regions with christians too. you never know.....
 

cheers

enzedder
 
rbavfan
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:41 am

Quoting lhrnue (Reply 25):

Ye have little faith for someone thats been a member from 2010. lol I've seen many worse, they are usually taken down faster though.

On a side note I would agree with the poster that noted 9/11 did not kill off the US airlines.
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:45 am

Quoting enzedder (Reply 33):
better avoid regions with christians too. you never know.....

Yes, because so many of them are fanatics who take it literally and act on it.  

I don't think the threadstarter's concerns are anything to worry about. UAE has as much to do with Egypt as Spain has with Latvia. I believe there's more likely to be an attack in a major European hub than in Dubai.
 
YYZatcboy
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:00 am

Quoting rbavfan (Reply 34):
On a side note I would agree with the poster that noted 9/11 did not kill off the US airlines.

Well it kind of did. The following major airlines declared bankruptcy from 2001-2006, many of which did not recover or were bought out and merged:

TWA - Bought by AA
US Airways - Bought by America West
Air Canada (Not US but North American)
Aloha - Recovered but subsequently went bankrupt and ceased operations in 2008
Northwest - Bought by Delta
Delta - Recovered in 2007

So 9/11 certainly lead to the downsizing and restructuring that we see today through acquisitions and mergers.
DH1/3/4 MD11/88 L1011 A319/20/21/30/50/80 717 727 735/6/7/8/9 744 762/3 77E/W 788/789 E40/75/90 CRJ/700/705 CC150
J/S DH8D 736/7/8 763
 
tortugamon
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:16 am

Quoting YYZatcboy (Reply 36):

Well it kind of did. The following major airlines declared bankruptcy from 2001-2006, many of which did not recover or were bought out and merged:

Seriously what were there 100+ airlines that were bankrupt in the US past deregulation? You really draw firm correlation to 9/11? Certainly played a role but the number of passengers rebounded shortly thereafter and I would attribute the decline in GPD to the tech stock market crash as well as 9/11 so I don't think we can draw your level of comparison. Do you really think the airlines like AA wouldn't have recovered if it wasn't for US? Come one, these airlines have been using Chap 11 for convenience for a while and say they never would have recovered is ridiculous in my opinion. AA was one of the most profitable airlines in the world right out of BK. Anyway, I guess I have a different view.

tortugamon
 
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seahawk
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:06 am

Not IS, but major problems for the ME3 is surely a scenario that Airbus is considering. They would be stupid to not consider such risks.
 
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enzo011
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:48 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 38):
Not IS, but major problems for the ME3 is surely a scenario that Airbus is considering. They would be stupid to not consider such risks.

Again, why only Airbus? Does the fact that the 777X has 76% of its orders from the ME3 not concern people? Or will an event that brings a halt to the ME3 only affect the A380neo's that the carriers want and not their 778s and 779s? This thread was started by someone who has some hostile views towards Airbus so the fact that he only names Airbus in this scenario doesn't change the situation for Boeing either.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:11 am

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 39):
Again, why only Airbus? Does the fact that the 777X has 76% of its orders from the ME3 not concern people? Or will an event that brings a halt to the ME3 only affect the A380neo's that the carriers want and not their 778s and 779s? This thread was started by someone who has some hostile views towards Airbus so the fact that he only names Airbus in this scenario doesn't change the situation for Boeing either.

First of all the 777X is already in development, but more importantly it has found customers outside the ME3, even though the ME3 have so far bought the majority of frames. If rumours about the A380NEO were to be believed it was primarily EK pushing for it, with very little interest from other airlines. The 777X has 3 other major customers with Cathay, LH and ANA and most likely sees interest from other major airlines as well.

Sure, if the ME3 get into trouble (and it does not need much, just a plane being damaged by a manpad while on approach to one of their hubs) Airbus and Boeing will be in trouble with their widebody offerings.
 
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CARST
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:41 pm

If I would try to stay on topic, my answer would be along the lines of...

"No, the A380NEO and 777X programs wouldn't be endangered due to the ME3 / ME4 going of out business. All the demand would still be there as the demand is not created in the Middle East. These hubs handle mostly connecting traffic. So the demand would shift to the Asian and European airlines enabling them to operate larger and more aircraft on their trunk routes."


But with such a unrealistic scenario and thread full of racist comments I just can't stay on topic. Who things of such scenarios? The ME3 going out of business? In which world? In which universe? ISIS is already shrinking and is getting bombed back into oblivion. Just wait a few years. All major terrorists here in "the West" were homegrown terrorists, living in our countries for years or even being born here.
With the fake passport being used in Paris by one of the terrorists you should know what they are aiming for, building up tension between muslims and christians, starting the real war, getting Western troops into the ME battlefield. Why let them win with your racist comments and part-quotes from the Quran? I can quote as much bullshit from "my" holy book, too (this is the bible btw). Oh people please think before posting...
 
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cougar15
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:38 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 6):
No, they are not all terrorists. But I am not keen on finding out who is and who isn't.And nowadays, all terrorists have a connection to the middle east and Islam. Baader-Meinhof, Brigate Rossi, ETA, IRA - they are all gone.

this thread really should be moved to ´non av´ due to the servere (right) comments sofar! I commend the many ´open minded users´ above who do not share this view. We dont of course want to talk about Norway, Cologne (stabbing of the major elect) etc etc in recent times (and even as far back as Oklahoma).No Muslems involved in any of that and the many other recent incidents the west faced!
Issues are all over the world, you have Christian , jewish and a few muslem fanatics! that will never go away, but to crusade as you do on a whole Religion & members of a certain faith is just sickening!
Move the thread please mods, we have enough other A380 threads where members can comment with aviation interests in their hearts, rather than all this right wing narrowminded cr*p!
And as for the OP. yes - indeed, he seemed to have forgotten, it might just not be Busses dropping from the sky, but the odd Boeing aswell......
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
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TheRedBaron
Posts: 3276
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:04 pm

Lets state that the is an elephant in the room, shall we? or to be more precise that there has been an elephant in the room for quite a long time now...facts:

Quoting Polot (Reply 22):
ISIS/ISIL/whatever they are called now is hardly friendly to every Muslim society. They hate Iran for example.
Things will only be bad for the ME3 if terrorist start specifically, and consistently, targeting their planes and hubs (and by hubs I mean the airport, not just the hub city). That so far has not happened.

Extremist Muslims, are the worst enemy of ...Muslims, that is a fact, the extra non Muslims deaths is simply part of their belief expansion doctrine. And basically their attacks target economic prowess, trade and confidence.

Quoting lhrnue (Reply 25):
Most ridiculous thread on A.Net ever.

I wonder what would happen if they cancel the Boeing order, would that take out the ridiculous part, and bring back consideration of a posible scenario?

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 27):
What COULD happen is that if an A380 were to nose dive to earth, the media would put fear in fliers by saying that terrorists are targeting large jumbo aircraft. People would then pay attention to what they are flying on. The aviation industry as a whole would survive if 3 A380's nose dived into the ground tomorrow. You'd have security checks made to a greater degree and then life would go on.

That is the problem business as usual !, when societies forget, and move on and don't deal with the problem (whatever problem that might be they WILL REPEAT), Its like being sick and not taking a medicine that cures the affliction.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 28):
Not for long.
As we've seen with the DC10 and 787 groundings, the public will **VERY** quickly 1) stop caring, and 2) forget.

100% right and unfortunately that doesn't make the root of the problem go away.

Quoting enzedder (Reply 33):
better avoid regions with christians too. you never know.....

There are no extremist Christians blowing up people, so your comment is not even funny.

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 35):
Yes, because so many of them are fanatics who take it literally and act on it.  

I don't know if there are many, but death from fanatics is a daily occurrence in the Middle east, since when? a thousand years ago?

Quoting CARST (Reply 41):
In which world? In which universe? ISIS is already shrinking and is getting bombed back into oblivion. Just wait a few years. All major terrorists here in "the West" were homegrown terrorists, living in our countries for years or even being born here.

Just as many say here that the void by bankrupt ME3 would be filled, so the destruction of ISIL will make a new radical extremist and crazy group come to the top, what was before ISIL, Alqaeda? and before that? and so on...

Id love to visit Lebanon, Siria and Iran, but unfortunately its been run by wackos for a long time, the people are fantastic, but their rulers, their spiritual leaders are very far from being humane towards others.

I live in Mexico and I love to visit some parts of MY COUNTRY, and I won't because is filled with drug lords narcos and crime, I acknowledge that not all Mexicans are narcos or behead others but I avoid such places and pray for those who live there, they have no choice, I don't see Mexican extremists blowing up aircraft or attacking other countries, but they DO attack tourism, and economic centers, its not racism its stating FACTS.

If the Middle east conflict gets out of hand, its a possibility that orders will be cancel, a big no fly zone be enforced, this will affect the industry as a whole BIG TIME, I wonder why people don't like to address the elephant in the room, I find parallels in those who don't address the Narco problem in my country.

Sadly the world is still very far away from peace, and people will kill others for the most ridiculous reasons, hate, beliefs, interpretations of religious books etc, if we forget history we are doomed to repeat it.

Regards TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
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CARST
Posts: 1556
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RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:48 pm

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 43):
If the Middle east conflict gets out of hand, its a possibility that orders will be cancel, a big no fly zone be enforced, this will affect the industry as a whole BIG TIME, I wonder why people don't like to address the elephant in the room, I find parallels in those who don't address the Narco problem in my country.

You can't compare the situations of the narcos in Mexico to the ISIS in Syria and Iraq. While both might do unhumanly things, the reasons they could rise to their current size is very different. The drug trafficers are that strong because they fought agianst weak goverments and had no real enemies. Same for the ISIS. But now ISIS is fighting against a multi-national cooperation of first world armies, while the narcos can go on without being disturbed. Of course there are para-military units fighting them, but there are not just not enough of them.

Also starting with a topic about a conflict in Iran and Syria and ending with a no-fly-zone over the whole middle east is unrealistic and very much wishful thinking of some rightwinged users. Stay real. An shoe-bomber-like attack aginst the ME4 (inlcuding TK) would be believable, these airlines are as endangered as all Western carriers, but the scenarios you guys write about are nearly impossible.
 
jetsetter1969
Posts: 71
Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 12:06 am

RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:58 pm

To the red baron reply 43

Well put mate.

Be it Airbus or Boeing any event be it terrorist or economic that results in substantial cancellations from the ME3 will hurt both manufacturers. Wasnt there a thred here stating that BA had complained boeing haddesigned the 777x more to the needs of the ME3 and as a result did not meet a number of BA wishes for a suitable frame for them? If that is the case then wouldnt boeing potentially be more exposed assuming airbus stays with the a380ceo.

Cheers Dave
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:59 pm

Quoting CARST (Reply 41):
The ME3 going out of business? In which world? In which universe?

If DXB falls (which is unlikely) then EK will obviously quickly be starved of cash and won't be around. Within months, the A380 program would be nonviable because residuals would go below zero on the A380.

But cities do fall. Tripoli fell. Baghdad fell. This is unlikely, but let's say ISIS detonates WMD in DXB and depopulates it. Not likely but not impossible.
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:33 pm

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 42):
Issues are all over the world, you have Christian , jewish and a few muslem fanatics! that will never go away, but to crusade as you do on a whole Religion & members of a certain faith is just sickening!

It is not western (or far eastern) people (and i include jewish people) that commit terrorist attacks each and every day.
It is not any of those people who attack the office of a newspaper they do not like. It is not western countries that want to build 200 christian chuches in Saudi Arabia.
It is people from a certain region with a certain background, who do not behave in their own countries and who do not behave as uninvited guests in other peoples countries. This is a FACT. And one better acts on facts and forgets wishfull thinking.

Now back to aviation: In my opinion, even a complete disappearance of the ME3 will not cause anything more than a short hiccup. Other airlines will take over the traffic - simple as that. And they would fly around any no-fly zone, as they did in the past. For those who do not remember: The Soviet Union and Red China and most of its satellites basically were no-fly zones, but airlines worked their way around.

The A380 favours airlines with a specific business modell and may be impaired, but as was mentioned earlier, it is not a cash cow anyway. Depending on one large customer is not good business strategy anyway. So canceling the neo in favour of providing capacity for building more A350 and A330 may be more profitable in any case. And maximum profitability is the raison d'etre for a company.
 
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CARST
Posts: 1556
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:00 pm

RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:48 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 46):
But cities do fall. Tripoli fell. Baghdad fell. This is unlikely, but let's say ISIS detonates WMD in DXB and depopulates it. Not likely but not impossible.

So do we want to discuss ISIS detonating a WMD in Manhattan, too? Thus "depopulating" NYC? Oh and rendering JFK, EWR and LGA unusable of course...

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 47):
It is not western (or far eastern) people (and i include jewish people) that commit terrorist attacks each and every day.
It is not any of those people who attack the office of a newspaper they do not like. It is not western countries that want to build 200 christian chuches in Saudi Arabia.
It is people from a certain region with a certain background, who do not behave in their own countries and who do not behave as uninvited guests in other peoples countries. This is a FACT. And one better acts on facts and forgets wishfull thinking.

As you like stating facts, could you perhaps tell us the religion which the majority of this years victims of ISIS and al-Qaeda believe in?

I have hint for you: It is the same religion of the majority of refugees to Europe (because these are the same people).


Being a smartass and stating facts out of context do not make the wrong things right.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Did Is Weaken A380NEO Project?

Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:25 pm

This thread has officially jump the shark.

tortugamon

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