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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:51 am

Now that voting has actually begun, and to preserve the sanity of our non USAmerican members.... perhaps we should consolidate here.  

[Edited 2016-02-01 19:53:31]
 
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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:53 am

I'll go first:

So Ted Cruz wins the Iowa caucus.

Awesome! Now he can join Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee as the most recent Republican winners in Iowa who went on to get the party nomination.

....oh wait.  
 
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einsteinboricua
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:11 am

Huckabee and O'Malley suspend campaigns. Surely other candidates will probably suspend their campaigns too as the night unfolds (pretty much: Fiorina, Santorum, and Gilmore since they're polling low in NH).

I think it's safe to say, however, that polling is definitely off and it's not the first cycle to bring up questions about the polls. Since 2012, the polls have been underestimating the candidates. I certainly have to question whether polls should be ignored nowadays. Polls suggested Trump would win: Cruz won. Polls were suggesting Clinton will win (with a small 3 point lead) and the race is as close as you can get (even if Sanders wins, it's still a close race).
 
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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:17 am

Cruz's win is the highest ever in Iowa for GOP, smashing Huckabee's previous record.

So was Trump's, but I doubt anyone's going to be talking about that.

Interestingly enough, Huckabee himself failed to registered more than 1%.
 
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DocLightning
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:41 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 2):

Huckabee and O'Malley suspend campaigns.

O'who?  

I was wondering why he was still in the race.
 
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WarRI1
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:49 am

A long way to go for us all.      
 
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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:58 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 4):
I was wondering why he was still in the race.

Because some people want to see a DILFy dad on TV?

....only reason that seems to make any sense.
He never was a factor otherwise, even to get on the veep shortlist IMO.
 
1g
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:34 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 4):

O'Malley still polled at around 3-4 percent.

Which was higher than the half a dozen GOP candidates who were polling at less than two percent.

My guessing is that O'Malley still had hope for some last minute surge that would bring him to somewhere around 15%. It wasn't very likely, but it certainly wasn't inconceivable given Hillary's on going email investigation... maybe he hoped deep down inside that Hillary would have gotten indicted   
 
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Aaron747
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:41 am

This is the DNC's worst nightmare. Without superPAC dollars, Hillary's name recognition and political dynasty capital, running a mostly grassroots campaign until recent TV ads - Sanders ends up in a dead heat with her?? WTF is going on...

[Edited 2016-02-01 21:42:34]
 
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seb146
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:31 am

So many of us want it to be November....

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 8):
This is the DNC's worst nightmare.

Not really. Sanders is big on social media. He is on satellite radio every Friday on the Thom Hartmann Show. Hillary has the name. I think this is a moment for the DNC to show the country that simply fear mongering will no longer work. That people need substance. People want to hear something other than "We can make America great again by doing great things to make America great!"
 
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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:44 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 8):
This is the DNC's worst nightmare. Without superPAC dollars, Hillary's name recognition and political dynasty capital, running a mostly grassroots campaign until recent TV ads - Sanders ends up in a dead heat with her??

Nah. Just like it won't be when he likely beats her in New Hampshire.

Their true nightmare will be if he definitively beats her in a southern state... as it would be evidence that she's losing her solid lead on him with minorities.
 
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scbriml
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:33 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
So Ted Cruz wins the Iowa caucus.

America finally comes to its senses and bitch-slaps the Trump-clown. Now all we have to worry about is the Cuban-Canadian Cruz-clown.   
 
blueflyer
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:14 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 2):
Surely other candidates will probably suspend their campaigns too as the night unfolds (pretty much: Fiorina, Santorum, and Gilmore since they're polling low in NH).

Well, 9 campaign planes are heading from Iowa to New Hampshire this evening, including Fiorina's. Trump headed back to NYC; Carson is doing laundry in Florida; Kasich and Christie were apparently in New Hampshire all day. Subtract O'Malley and Huckabee and all are accounted for, I think.

(edited to locate a missing candidate)

[Edited 2016-02-02 01:17:12]
 
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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:21 am

All of this is fair and good.

But the best part of tonight? ....the rest of the nation can FINALLY quit pretending that we give 2 squirts of diarrheal dogshit about Iowa!

At least for another 4yrs.   
 
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Aaron747
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:53 am

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 12):
including Fiorina's.

Just like a failed CEO - doesn't know when to quit.
 
ltbewr
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:28 pm

The closeness of the Democratic numbers in Iowa shows a real division in the party. Middle aged women and older D's support Clinton, but younger, especially under-30's, support Sanders. There are also some issues as to the count for HRC, at least 5 districts due to ties had to go to 'coin flips' and all went in favor of HRC. HRC has a significant and higher numbers in delegates over Sanders in the state. O'Malley's votes could have make the difference between HRC and Sanders. Due to the low numbers and no money left, he has dropped out.

As to the R's, Cruz got out the 'religious' voters, Trump the 'rednecks', Rubio the relative 'moderates' with the 3 getting about 75% of the votes. Carson got less than 10%. The remaining 15% was split among the rest of the 'clown car'. Huckabee has ended his campaign after getting maybe 1%. Jeb Bush only got 3% but will likely continue as has the money. The others may only last a few more primaries past NH.
 
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einsteinboricua
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:30 pm

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 12):
Well, 9 campaign planes are heading from Iowa to New Hampshire this evening, including Fiorina's.

I meant in time. Most campaigns suspend after IA and NH. The biggest surprise will be if Bush calls it quits after SC, especially with Rand Paul coming ahead of him.

Now, I'm gonna say something that's been eating me up this morning (and mods, if you have the power to make this its own thread, by all means).

<rant>
I am concerned about the kind of people Sanders has for support. It seems like a big chunk of his supporters seem to be "entitled", in the sense that they feel their candidate should have won because of reasons. Last night, 5 precincts were locked in a tie. According to the Iowa caucus rules, ties are broken by coin toss or picking a name from a hat. In a remarkable feat, Clinton won all five precincts. Facebook friends and pages this morning were abuzz on how Clinton stole the caucus and how undemocratic a coin toss is. I'm sorry, but I'm certain that if the situation had been reversed (Sanders winning the coin tosses and winning the caucus) we'd never hear the end of it.

All the while, I see the same people protesting: it's the younger generation. The same people who believe that because Sanders pulled a massive rally, it means his support is immense and Clinton's is not. Last night in IA it was shown that the Democratic Party (at least in IA) was evenly split between the two (ie. both command a great deal of support). It is my belief that these folks think that their candidate should win and that if he loses it's because the media is out to get him, the DNC seeks to put him down, or something else. If anything, O'Malley is the one who should be complaining since he has largely been overshadowed by Clinton and Sanders.

If Sanders is seeking the Democratic Party nomination then it means he has agreed to the rules of each of the states' primaries and caucuses. If one of them calls for a tie to be resolved by a coin toss, then a coin toss it is. If he wins, he won. If he loses, he lost. Deal with it! Accept the results and move on to the next state. But stop the whining. They both walk out with equal number of pledged delegates so even with a razor thin margin of victory, Sanders called it what it is: a tie.

In other words, don't hate the players; hate the game. </rant>

Now that that's over...on to NH where Sanders is likely to win big. The question is whether Trump will keep his lead or will Rubio take away his 2nd place while Cruz sails through 1st.

I gotta say, though, Cruz has shown that he knows how to play the game. He laid low, took shelter from attacks, and only when he was well positioned to strike did he do so. IA was his turf. Let's see if the strategy plays out well in NH as well.
 
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casinterest
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:26 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 16):
I gotta say, though, Cruz has shown that he knows how to play the game. He laid low, took shelter from attacks, and only when he was well positioned to strike did he do so. IA was his turf. Let's see if the strategy plays out well in NH as well.

I don't expect it too. Iowa Republican voters tend to be overly social conservative evangelical. This plays well for Cruz wherever they turn out in numbers. However NH is not quite the same demographic, especially as Independents get a voice in the vote . Trump will beat Cruz in NH. I expect Kasich or Bush to show quite a bit better as well in NH, with Carson and Cruz loosing a lot of ground.
 
bmacleod
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:57 pm

Clinton and Sanders end up tied does that mean the delegates are split 50/50?

Good to see the Iowa farmers showed up for Hillary....

If he can keep winning it looks like Cruz will be first Canadian-born GOP nominee...

Looks like Jeb Bush will be bowing out soon....

[Edited 2016-02-02 06:01:18]
 
MaverickM11
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:39 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
Awesome! Now he can join Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee as the most recent Republican winners in Iowa who went on to get the party nomination.

Evangelicals have a knack for picking god awful people that everyone else wants to throw a brick at 
Quoting scbriml (Reply 11):
Now all we have to worry about is the Cuban-Canadian Cruz-clown.

I still think he's totally unelectable. I'm not sure if the GOP establishment would prefer Cruz, Trump, or self immolation.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 4):
O'who?  

O'Carson?  
 
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Polot
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:53 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 19):
I still think he's totally unelectable. I'm not sure if the GOP establishment would prefer Cruz, Trump, or self immolation.

Probably Trump> self immolation> Cruz.

Its funny to how much people loathe Cruz. Not just because of his politics or whatever but everyone with any constant interaction seems to hate him at a personal level.
 
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einsteinboricua
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:23 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 18):
Clinton and Sanders end up tied does that mean the delegates are split 50/50?

Pledged delegates, most likely. Superdelegates, on the other hand, are free to choose. So while pledged delegates were equally split, Clinton has far more superdelegates pledged so after all was said, Clinton starts ahead with more delegates from Iowa than Sanders. Of course, that may change as the primary season goes on, just like it did back in 2008 when superdelegates switched to Obama.
 
mt99
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:55 pm

Cruz is so slimy i cannot stand him.

I hope us Democrats smarten up and stop encouraging Bernie. Great guy, great ideas - nothing wrong with him other than the fact that he cant win - and if my some miracle he does win - he would be a disaster. Vice President?

Hillary is no angel - But i do think that there is something to be said about having the biggest b*tch as possible as president.

The Presidency is a a game - and you need someone that knows how to play it. Its naive to think that an "outsider" can get things done.
 
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DocLightning
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:48 pm

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 8):

This is the DNC's worst nightmare. Without superPAC dollars, Hillary's name recognition and political dynasty capital, running a mostly grassroots campaign until recent TV ads - Sanders ends up in a dead heat with her?? WTF is going on...

Hardly their worst nightmare. The current situation vis-a-vis the GOP field is the GOP's worst nightmare. The DNC situation is simply an interesting twist.

I think the DNC believes they can win the general election with either Mr. Sanders or Mrs. Clinton.

Quoting mt99 (Reply 22):
Great guy, great ideas - nothing wrong with him other than the fact that he cant win - and if my some miracle he does win - he would be a disaster.

I don't think he would be a disaster. He would be a definite shake-up to the status quo, which is always a bit good and a bit frightening.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 6):
Because some people want to see a DILFy dad on TV?

I don't need him on TV. My bedroom will do nicely.   
 
mt99
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:53 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 23):
I don't think he would be a disaster. He would be a definite shake-up to the status quo, which is always a bit good and a bit frightening.

See that the thing. You think he "shake up" the status quo - need congress to get things done,, and to think that we all going to sing Kumabaya around some locally sourced fire if he is elected -it just simply not going to happen. The game of politics will not change for Bernie. The game will get tougher and he wont be able to play; and we will all loose.

His heart is the right place - but from practical standpoint; his ideas are prone to fall flat

[Edited 2016-02-02 09:56:25]
 
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einsteinboricua
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:08 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 23):
He would be a definite shake-up to the status quo, which is always a bit good and a bit frightening.

I don't think he would come close, and all his supporters will be in for a let down, and (most important), Democrats would be in for a massive defeat in 2020.

People seem to believe that Bernie can actually get his proposals across, but another white building in DC with two wings houses more GOP members than Democrats, so even if you can muster unanimous support from Democrats (unlikely given the 2018 elections), you fall short. Hence, all the promises made by Sanders will fall flat. Do people really think banks and corporations will not fight back by supporting candidates that will support THEIR interests?

"Executive Order"...until Congress and the SCOTUS rule it out of order.

Seeing that Sanders "gave up", even though Republicans are to blame, will leave Democrats without a strong candidate, and after 12 years of Democratic rule, the pendulum will long be overdue to swing back to red. If Sanders is elected in 2016 you can bet that the Democrats will suffer a pummeling rivaled only by Reagan's reelection.

Sanders's proposals sound good, but you need a Congress willing to enact them. Judging by how radicalized the GOP is and how concerned the Democrats will be to retain vulnerable seats, don't expect anything to happen any time soon.
 
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Boeing717200
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:11 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 11):
Now all we have to worry about is the Cuban-Canadian Cruz-clown.

He will overplay his win and he's just not electable on a national level. Trump will probably do well in New Hampshire with the East Coast bias of sorts. The big winner last night though was Rubio.
 
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Aesma
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:58 pm

Aside from his ideas, that are pretty mainstream seen from here, Sanders is old and looks older. Hillary, Trump and others aren't particularly young, but there's still a significant difference.

Is there a way for a US president to organize, without the approval of congress, a national referendum ? That would be the way to enact some of his ideas. The French president has that power, but rarely uses it as people tend to vote against the president, no matter what the question.
 
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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:02 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 17):
Iowa Republican voters tend to be overly social conservative evangelical.

And THAT'S why Trump lost in the end.... he finally met his kryptonite, and it was the "two Corinthians" statement.

That proved beyond a shadow of a doubt to the evangelicals that he is not one of them, never has been, and knows nothing about them-- because anyone who's spent even five seconds in Bible study would know how to say that book's name.

There was no amount of backpeddling, showmanship, or insulting that could get him out of that.

That's why I firmly believe he skipped the debate:
Nothing to do with Megyn Kelly (though he tried to play it off that way) and everything to do with the fact that he could never get around the question of "Why should evangelicals side with you, when it's clear you're not one of them?" should it have arisen.

It's sorta crazy that it took until the 11th hour for him to hit a roadblock, after so many months of walking away unscathed from every single potential pitfall.... but it came.
 
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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:13 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 27):
Is there a way for a US president to organize, without the approval of congress, a national referendum ?

You can't create laws in the USA without Congress... but you can however change the supreme power that binds any such law, and (theoretically) determines how the courts would handle any issues that arise with/under/surrounding those laws, by changing the Constitution.

The President has nothing to do with it though. Two thirds of (the legislatures of) the states can come together and create a Constitutional convention for amendment, that they later must ratify, and they can all of that without Congress.
 
A332DTW
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:38 pm

Apparently there's an accusation going around of voter fraud, or miscount to put it mildly, by the Clinton team:

http://www.conservativeoutfitters.co...era-committing-voter-fraud-in-iowa

http://www.c-span.org/video/?c457857...oter-fraud-polk-county-iowa-caucus

I don't understand why caucuses are still done in first place. Nothing but a mess.

[Edited 2016-02-02 11:40:04]
 
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einsteinboricua
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:55 pm

Quoting A332DTW (Reply 30):
Apparently there's an accusation going around of voter fraud

There's also one by the Carson team accusing the Cruz camp about telling possible Carson supporters that he would stop campaigning after Iowa. Carson headed to Florida as the day progressed and Steve King (Cruz supporter) tweeted:

Quote:
Carson looks like he is out. Iowans need to know before they vote. Most will go to Cruz, I hope.



It's interesting, though, how the caucuses were rarely questioned until last night, and suddenly fraud is rampant everywhere. That being said, why don't we switch to primaries all over? You ensure everyone who is able to vote can do so without spending a ridiculous amount of time standing in a room to be counted for the delegates that will select the district delegates, which will select the state delegates, which will select the winner (yes, the IA caucus is a 4-tiered caucus).

Quoting mt99 (Reply 24):
His heart is the right place - but from practical standpoint; his ideas are prone to fall flat

   When my generation understands this, maybe we can coalesce around a decent candidate (not Sanders, not Clinton), but until that happens, I'd rather go with one that has a chance at succeeding with a GOP Congress.
 
DiamondFlyer
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:15 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 28):
That proved beyond a shadow of a doubt to the evangelicals that he is not one of them, never has been, and knows nothing about them-- because anyone who's spent even five seconds in Bible study would know how to say that book's name.

Which, IMO, is one of the few things he has going for him. He's one of the few on the conservative side that don't push religion constantly, which is a breath of fresh air. The sooner the Republicans dump the idea that they have to have the religious crazies, the quicker we can move on to be a party that gets something done.

-DiamondFlyer
 
Caryjack
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:30 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 18):
Clinton and Sanders end up tied does that mean the delegates are split 50/50?

Clinton won so the 44 delegates are split Clinton 23 and Sanders 21.
The republican side was worth 30 delegates. The top 4 finishers were Cruz 8, Trump 7, Rubio 7 and Carson 3. Others were awarded 1 or 0 deligates.

Not all states award their delegates proportionally. Some are winner take all, some are a combination and a few hold conventions.
 
N415XJ
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:39 pm

Quoting A332DTW (Reply 30):

Apparently there's an accusation going around of voter fraud, or miscount to put it mildly, by the Clinton team:

Hillary is an awful, slimy, pitiful excuse for a person and I wouldn't vote for her if there was a gun against my head. Still, I think that 'voter fraud' is a bit of a strong term for what happened. Caucuses are not really regulated by the government, so technically the party could just announce that Clinton is the nominee even if 100% of Democrats voted for Bernie and would face no legal repercussions. Also, the whole place looks very noisy and chaotic, so it's entirely possible that it was a simple mistake and there were no nefarious intentions behind it.
 
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DocLightning
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:52 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 24):

See that the thing. You think he "shake up" the status quo - need congress to get things done,, and to think that we all going to sing Kumabaya around some locally sourced fire if he is elected -it just simply not going to happen. The game of politics will not change for Bernie. The game will get tougher and he wont be able to play; and we will all loose.

I'm not strongly pro-Bernie, but there was an interesting interview with John McCain that talked about his negotiating skills. Evidently, he's quite good. Infuriatingly so for Mr. McCain.

And frankly, if he has a Congress as intransigent as this one, one could argue that refusal to negotiate would perhaps be even more productive than what Mr. Obama did with "trying to be reasonable" and winding up with very little to show for it.

By contrast, Mrs. Clinton probably would start from a far more leftward position on negotiations. I still think she would make the better President, but if Mr. Sanders gets the nomination, I'll vote for him. He would be far better than Mr. Cruz or Mr. Trump, if that's what it comes down to.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 27):

Aside from his ideas, that are pretty mainstream seen from here, Sanders is old and looks older. Hillary, Trump and others aren't particularly young, but there's still a significant difference.
 
mt99
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:44 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 35):
. I still think she would make the better President, but if Mr. Sanders gets the nomination, I'll vote for him. He would be far better than Mr. Cruz or Mr. Trump, if that's what it comes down to.

Well that i agree 100%. Trump is joke an am truly scared of Rafael Cruz.

I am intrigued of Marco Rubios' 3rd place finish.. I think that he would be likely to give the Dems a good run for their money. I think Rubio would beat Sanders very easily
 
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DeltaMD90
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:06 pm

On the Dem side, I don't think there was a true winner or loser (well, besides O'Malley of course.) Hillary and Bernie performed about as well as the polls were saying (about 50-50%.) I think it would be one thing if Bernie was some insurgent candidate beating down several establishment candidates and getting 50% of the vote but with 2 real players in the game, it is less impressive IMO (not to take anything away from Bernie, I just don't think he's "the DNC's worst nightmare.") And he has a long battle ahead of him... he is doing well in NH but after that, Hillary leads just about everywhere else. That's not to say he can't campaign more in those places but it's really Hillary's to lose

On the GOP side... Trump was the big loser for tonight IMO. Cruz won but he needed this win. He met and slightly exceeded expectations and now can move forward. Trump did a good deal worse than expected and almost lost to Rubio... not a good night for him at all and definitely a wake up call. He needs to adapt or he'll probably lose. Rubio was the biggest winner I think. Greatly exceeded expectations and did well in an evangelical state. Not to say he isn't all Jesusy but he wasn't as evangelical as some of the other guys. In less evangelical and more moderate states, I think he is potentially set up a lot better than Cruz and maybe even Trump.

tl;dr: Bernie did well, probably not well enough. Trump needs to step up his game and Cruz needs to use this win to squash Trump and Rubio. I think it's gonna be Hillary vs Rubio
 
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LAX772LR
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:17 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 37):
I think it's gonna be Hillary vs Rubio

       Funny thing is: if so, then watch the majority of the Hispanic vote skew to Hillary in an enormous way.




Want the easiest way to piss off a Mexican or Central American?
...have a Cuban try to preach to them about immigration policy!

Then sit back and watch the fireworks.  
 
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ER757
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:41 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 37):
Trump was the big loser for tonight IMO. Cruz won but he needed this win. He met and slightly exceeded expectations and now can move forward. Trump did a good deal worse than expected and almost lost to Rubio... not a good night for him at all and definitely a wake up call. He needs to adapt or he'll probably lose. Rubio was the biggest winner I think.

Self-gloss here, in the "who will be the next US president" thread a couple months back I said that when it came down to it and people actually had to vote, Trump wouldn't get the numbers that he was polling at - people can say they support him but when it comes down to crunch time, they know they can't seriously consider putting him on the White House. I also predicted Rubio would end up being the GOP nominee. I'll stand by that
 
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zckls04
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:44 am

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 32):
Which, IMO, is one of the few things he has going for him. He's one of the few on the conservative side that don't push religion constantly, which is a breath of fresh air. The sooner the Republicans dump the idea that they have to have the religious crazies, the quicker we can move on to be a party that gets something done.

The "religious crazies" aren't some outlying fringe group though; they're a significant percentage of the base. These elections are about turnout, and you have to get them out and voting.

Quoting mt99 (Reply 36):
I am intrigued of Marco Rubios' 3rd place finish.. I think that he would be likely to give the Dems a good run for their money. I think Rubio would beat Sanders very easily

Yep, i think you're right. Rubio vs. Sanders would hand the White House to the GOP, and rightly so IMO. Unfortunately the Dems seem to be doing exactly what the Labour party just did in the UK- electing an idealist to do a realist's job.

Hopefully Sanders will lose soon and get out of the race. But I'm actually pleasantly surprised by Rubio's showing- at least it's a reasonable alternative if Sanders turns out to tank the Dems' fortunes. If we ended up with Cruz as President it would be a total disaster. If we ended up with Trump, it is a complete mystery what we'd get. I'm not even sure he knows what he'll do.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 16057
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:57 am

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 40):
If we ended up with Cruz as President it would be a total disaster.

No chance in hell for Cruz in a general, the math simply isn't there. He can't sell the middle the way GWB did. The west and east coasts loathe Cruz, and that's 160 million people right there. Forget it Ted.
 
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DeltaMD90
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:58 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 39):
Self-gloss here, in the "who will be the next US president" thread a couple months back I said that when it came down to it and people actually had to vote, Trump wouldn't get the numbers that he was polling at - people can say they support him but when it comes down to crunch time, they know they can't seriously consider putting him on the White House. I also predicted Rubio would end up being the GOP nominee. I'll stand by that

Must feel good to see the light through all the madness  

I will add one thing though... I think we need to see how Trump does in a primary. Caucuses are a different beast... maybe Trump supporters will really vote for him, they just are unwilling or not savvy enough to actually caucus. I'll be honest, caucuses kinda confuse me.

But again, Rubio, hardly the evangelical choice, doing as well as he did in a super evangelical state bodes very well for him. I don't think it will be as easy for Cruz to replicate his win in more moderate states (and even liberal ones, don't forget that states like California are important to the GOP primary.) Trump is a wildcard and to his credit, evangelicals have never been his strong point. In fact, one could argue that he did pretty well in an evangelical state considering how phony he is when it comes to his faith
 
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flyingturtle
Posts: 6179
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USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:06 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 8):
This is the DNC's worst nightmare. Without superPAC dollars, Hillary's name recognition and political dynasty capital, running a mostly grassroots campaign until recent TV ads - Sanders ends up in a dead heat with her?? WTF is going on...

HELL, YEAH!

Don't be afraid. We are from teh interwebz. We will make our candidates win.

Quoting mt99 (Reply 22):
The Presidency is a a game

I just lost the election.


But well... in the media over here in Europe, one mostly sees reports about Bernie and Donnie. Cruz and Rubio are practically non-existent, while Hillary is a more of a figure. I hope for a Trump and Sanders win at the New Hampshire circus cactus caucus primary.

David
 
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WarRI1
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Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:51 am

USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:44 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 43):
I hope for a Trump and Sanders win at the New Hampshire circus cactus caucus primary.

So do I, we do not need anymore religious preachers running too far in this race. Cruz, Rubio and what's his name are enough for me. Can anyone imagine what we would experience if Cruz or Rubio were elected. The religious Pontificating while they screwed us all over with taxes, jobs, corporations, environment issues and Wall Street. I would barf if one of them made it. Trump maybe a blowhard, but not a religious blowhard. They are the worst type of blowhard.
 
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Adipasquale
Posts: 831
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2015 4:39 pm

USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:25 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 41):
No chance in hell for Cruz in a general, the math simply isn't there. He can't sell the middle the way GWB did. The west and east coasts loathe Cruz, and that's 160 million people right there. Forget it Ted.

I'll second that and add that while they really shouldn't, the appearance of the candidates does matter. Clinton and even more so Sanders look like grandparents, ie. people you can trust. Rubio is a good looking, charismatic guy, and Trump is Trump. Cruz on the other hand looks like someone who isn't allowed within 500 feet of a playground. He plays well with very conservative, evangelical voters, but between his hard line positions and his creepy looks, Cruz will not win over many undecided voters, even if it is Sanders who gets the Dem nomination.
 
jetwet1
Posts: 3384
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:42 am

USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:29 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 11):
America finally comes to its senses and bitch-slaps the Trump-clown. Now all we have to worry about is the Cuban-Canadian Cruz-clown.

Not really, Iowa, besides being the first to hold it's caucus is know for one thing in politics.

Quoting casinterest (Reply 17):

Iowa Republican voters tend to be overly social conservative evangelical.

And that's it, as long as you mention how much you love God you will always do fine in Iowa, hell Cruz even managed to throw in a "Our rights come from God, not the constitution" yesterday, that of course appeals to the Christians, however, it's something that will come back to haunt him.

I am not a great fan of Hillary, but man, I would love to see a debate with her and Cruz, she would skin him alive.

Interestingly, my home phone has been blowing up tonight, as I am a registered Republican and the wife is a registered Democrat we get calls from both parties looking for support (money), I hang up on them, the wife prefers to debate them.

We actually had a Cruz call tonight explaining that Cruz is gods choice and as good Christians we should be voting for him, as well as making a donation of course, needless to say the wife answering "I am not a good Christian, I am a good Jewish woman and if Mr Cruz is Gods choice, then why would he need my money"

Anyways, forget Iowa, lets see where we stand in a month.
 
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LAX772LR
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Posts: 14186
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 6:31 am

Quoting Adipasquale (Reply 45):
Cruz will not win over many undecided voters, even if it is Sanders who gets the Dem nomination.

Not to mention, minorities.

The Oh-let-me-get-a-second-job-so-I-can-contribute-to-pastor's-new-private-jet-fund! church Blacks will go for him, but none of the others will.

Nor will Hispanics, in part because he's Cuban, in part because he's done everything under the sun to deny his Latin heritage. I'm still waiting for the "Senor, why you no espeaka Spanish?" comment that you KNOW is coming.....






Quoting jetwet1 (Reply 46):
hell Cruz even managed to throw in a "Our rights come from God, not the constitution

https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xft1/v/t1.0-9/12661806_1616348168452880_1538892759522173049_n.jpg?oh=03e801b5d61bd467c871a6a76cb539d5&oe=5727040B
 
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einsteinboricua
Posts: 8711
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:17 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 38):
Want the easiest way to piss off a Mexican or Central American?
...have a Cuban try to preach to them about immigration policy!

Both Rubio and Cruz have placed themselves in a pickle should either one get the nomination. Hispanics (not just any Hispanics, but sons of Cuban immigrants) pandering to white votes on how they're against immigration, only to reverse their position when the general election comes. The Hispanic vote will matter greatly in Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. Heck, even Arizona may look purple with such a flip-flop. I also wonder when will the Hispanic vote start to turn Texas purple.
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2990
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

USA Election Thread - Part 1

Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:59 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 35):
By contrast, Mrs. Clinton probably would start from a far more leftward position on negotiations. I still think she would make the better President, but if Mr. Sanders gets the nomination, I'll vote for him.

Pundits are saying SC is a firewall Sanders cannot get past. Looking at his plan for big tax hikes it's no surprise; like wise for NV.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 48):
I also wonder when will the Hispanic vote start to turn Texas purple.

I'd say TN and AR even GA and KY could be in play for Hillary if Cruz is nominated.

[Edited 2016-02-03 06:08:50]
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