Hong Kong After 2047

UAEflyer · Fri Apr 29, 2016 4:51 pm

I was in Hong Kong for couple of days and was amazed by how this city is a top model in many things especially laws, regulations, Real Estate, trading, and of course aviation. on the other hand , mainland China is almost totally different, I know the system now is 1 country 2 systems, but what will happen after year 2047?. When Margaret Thatcher was negotiating Hong Kong future with the Chinese leader, she took promises that Hong Kong will practice all freedom that the British secured. But nowadays no one is discussing the future and what will happen after 31 year from now.
The joint declaration doesn't mention that Hong Kong can get independent and be a country by it self.
Very early to judge but, it will be nice to share insights from people who have knowledge.

seat64k · Fri Apr 29, 2016 8:13 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
But nowadays no one is discussing the future and what will happen after 31 year from now.

This is actually a hot topic of debate, particularly among younger people (students to late 30s) - I hear (and see on facebook) lots of discussion amongst my colleagues. There's a strong sense that China has no intension of honouring the promises, and that CY is a yes man. My Cantonese is pretty poor so I won't try to be more specific, but I can tell you this is something a lot of people are pretty passionate about.

zkojq · Fri Apr 29, 2016 8:30 pm

There's plenty of overreach from the PRC already.

Quoting seat64k (Reply 1):
that CY is a yes man

Is there any credible evidence that he's not?

mercure1 · Fri Apr 29, 2016 8:57 pm

Ultimately should be 1 China, 1 system.

BestWestern · Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:40 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
When Margaret Thatcher was negotiating Hong Kong future with the Chinese leader, she took promises that Hong Kong will practice all freedom that the British secured. But nowadays no one is discussing the future and what will happen after 31 year from now.

The Chinese approach is working perfectly. They, like the Russians are excellent long term strategists.

This analogy works well....

Put a frog in boiling water and he jumps out..... Put a frog in water and heat it to boiling and he doesn't notice.

Hong Kong is changing slowly, but surely - China is already controlling the strings of politics and commerce.

MaverickM11 · Sat Apr 30, 2016 8:05 pm

I wonder if China will even make it to 2047 as 1 China 1 system. Every indicator is pointing the wrong way and it's not going to get better.

BestWestern · Sat Apr 30, 2016 11:43 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 5):
I wonder if China will even make it to 2047 as 1 China 1 system. Every indicator is pointing the wrong way and it's not going to get better.

I think they will. To be fair to the Chinese government, they run quite a good show and, corruption excluded, have focused on education, infrastructure and rule of law. In my opinion, they are overly paranoid about criticism internally but that will change as the country system ages and matures.

The new leader is tackling corruption which is good.

In saying that - as an outsider to HK and having lived in both developed and developing China, Hong Kong isn't China. Culturally and socially they are very different. One thing that surprised me most is that HK people don't understand how to get things done in China.

It will take more than two generations to 'assimilate' the populations to unite. At this moment too many HK'ers are too focused on the here and now money to think about the future whilst china is playing a long game of chess and thinking five moves ahead. It's obvious who will win this game - eventually - bar the emotions of the 8m or so people who live in this fantastic city.

Ken777 · Mon May 02, 2016 1:22 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 3):
Ultimately should be 1 China, 1 system.

Maybe not.

China is enjoying some commercial success in international trade, but Hong Kong is, IMO, the example that China will need to follow for future developments of free enterprise zones.

On the other side of the coin, the military may well be a problem. Those new man made islands have a strong potential for a military disaster that business people in China really don't want. This attitude of the military (and maybe senior politicians) is probably the biggest risk China will face in the future.

Elite · Mon May 02, 2016 7:21 am

The question is, what is the benefit of changing something that is - ultimately - "working" right now? John Tsang, the current Financial Secretary and a front-runner for the Chief Executive job, said this recently:

“The Basic Law does not say it will only be effective until 2047,” Tsang said. “In my opinion, the effective period is forever, therefore you do not have to worry about that.”

https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/03/24/2047-hong-kongs-basic-law-is-forever-says-finance-sec/

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 3):
Ultimately should be 1 China, 1 system.

Please explain?

UAEflyer · Mon May 02, 2016 8:03 am

Any chance that the British come back ? Would the HK accept them again ?

Polot · Mon May 02, 2016 2:40 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 9):
Any chance that the British come back ? Would the HK accept them again ?

That would never happen. The HK may accept them again- the Chinese won't.

MaverickM11 · Mon May 02, 2016 2:47 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 6):
To be fair to the Chinese government, they run quite a good show and, corruption excluded, have focused on education, infrastructure and rule of law. In my opinion, they are overly paranoid about criticism internally but that will change as the country system ages and matures.

I don't see how it moves forward without a major change in strategy, which is totally counter to the interests of those currently in charge. I think it's going to look like today's Brazil in no time, at best.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 6):
The new leader is tackling corruption which is good.

Seems more like a witch hunt than anything...if you're well connected it's business as usual.

Elite · Mon May 02, 2016 4:35 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 10):

That would never happen. The HK may accept them again- the Chinese won't.

Most people won't; even those who want independence for Hong Kong wouldn't embrace British rule again. Sure, it had many, many benefits - but colonization by a country half a world away, in which much of their rule has extremely racist (though often glossed over), the longing for how life was before had more to do with the time in history as opposed to who was in charge.

Flighty · Mon May 02, 2016 4:52 pm

I think it would be interesting to see a new People's revolution, likely driving the present regime out of Asia and into exile in Canada, Switzerland, London and Los Angeles. New passports could be issued. Full democracy.

Hong Kong and Taiwan and Singapore are incubators that prove that rule of law and democracy can work just fine across the Chinese region.

Francoflier · Mon May 02, 2016 4:56 pm

China's increasing influence in HK's affair is, for now, mostly confined to politics.

The police is becoming pro-Beijing, and the party's intelligence service has pretty much fully infiltrated the place, and is operating there as on its own territory, as proven by the political kidnapping of the bookshop owners.

Beijing is slowing infusing itself into HK the way it has done in every other ethnically or culturally different parts of China.
It's very slow and insidious, and works mostly by placing devoted party members at the rights politically sensitive functions and slowly steering the whole local political and economic systems towards the mainland. It will take decades, but there is nothing anybody can do to stop it.
Unfortunately.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 11):
Seems more like a witch hunt than anything...if you're well connected it's business as usual.

Yup.

Elite · Tue May 03, 2016 4:41 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 14):
The police is becoming pro-Beijing

Luckily, not all - sources from within the Police have highlighted their unhappiness with why a normal missing persons unit was dealing with the booksellers, when any other cross-border kidnapping case would have enlisted the use of elite squads.

As you mention, this is mostly confined to political cases - for normal cases, at least for now, the police are still very trustworthy.

The "forced repatriation" of Taiwanese citizens to China from Kenya is proof that Hong Kong is not the only place feeling the pressure.

United Airline · Tue May 03, 2016 6:55 am

I rather see an independent Hong Kong with the Queen as the figurehead, an appointed governor, an elected prime minister/lower house- The Commonwealth of Hong Kong. Like Australia and Canada

Francoflier · Tue May 03, 2016 1:07 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 15):
sources from within the Police have highlighted their unhappiness with why a normal missing persons unit was dealing with the booksellers

True. In fact, quite a lot of people in HK are unhappy with the increasing meddling of Beijing in their internal affairs.
But the fact that the police wasn't allocated the required units for this case shows that the high-up deciders have already been subverted.

Sad.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
rather see an independent Hong Kong with the Queen as the figurehead,

Not gun' happen.

Save for a few nostalgic British residents in HK, no one there wants anything to do with the Commonwealth.

HK has its own culture and identity, and while it is in China, it deserves to be ruled by its own people, not to be part of a slightly pointless group that's a throwback to the colonial era nor to be taken over by a repressive and autocratic regime. Ideally, a Singapore-style city-state would be ideal, but of course this is never going to happen, so the best they can hope for is for China to maintain the current status-quo and pray for as little political interference from the North as possible...

One can hope.

BestWestern · Tue May 03, 2016 1:31 pm

Thie

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
subverted

They are serving at their masters desire.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
repressive and autocratic regime

Chinese people have great freedoms - and by and large are a happy nation. I don't agree with a one party state, but most of what china does is positive for its nation. But again, HK is so very different to China today. In 2046 it could be very different.

Polot · Tue May 03, 2016 1:46 pm

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
Not gun' happen.

Save for a few nostalgic British residents in HK, no one there wants anything to do with the Commonwealth.

HK has its own culture and identity, and while it is in China, it deserves to be ruled by its own people, not to be part of a slightly pointless group that's a throwback to the colonial era nor to be taken over by a repressive and autocratic regime. Ideally, a Singapore-style city-state would be ideal, but of course this is never going to happen, so the best they can hope for is for China to maintain the current status-quo and pray for as little political interference from the North as possible...

We are also talking about one of the most territorial country in the world right now (China). Unless their attitude changes in the next 30 years you will have to pry HK out of their cold dead hands.

BestWestern · Tue May 03, 2016 2:32 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 19):
We are also talking about one of the most territorial country in the world right now (China

First prize goes to Russia! Second to Turkey, and third to China. India and Pakistan share fourth.

Elite · Tue May 03, 2016 3:03 pm

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
But the fact that the police wasn't allocated the required units for this case shows that the high-up deciders have already been subverted.

Yep - the trust for the HK Police in politically charged cases have always been near zero, but this one has been so flagrant that it has affected the image of the Police overall. Interestingly, trust for non-political cases, e.g. regular crime has always been high in my opinion.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
Save for a few nostalgic British residents in HK, no one there wants anything to do with the Commonwealth.

Correct, many HKers want independence, not "handed over" from China to the UK or vice versa! Don't be fooled by the colonial era flag, it is simply a tool of protest given how strongly the Chinese government react to it.

United Airline · Thu May 05, 2016 7:27 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
Not gun' happen.

Save for a few nostalgic British residents in HK, no one there wants anything to do with the Commonwealth.

HK has its own culture and identity, and while it is in China, it deserves to be ruled by its own people, not to be part of a slightly pointless group that's a throwback to the colonial era nor to be taken over by a repressive and autocratic regime. Ideally, a Singapore-style city-state would be ideal, but of course this is never going to happen, so the best they can hope for is for China to maintain the current status-quo and pray for as little political interference from the North as possible...

One can hope.

Well never say never. The political situation can change rapidly China eventually.

The Commonwealth of Hong Kong doesn't mean that Hong Kong wants to be returned to the British. It's like the Canadian/Australian/New Zealand systems. They rule themselves but they have the Queen as the figurehead and an appointed figurehead governor

Accordingly to an SCMP survey, over 90% of the people prefer the British

UAEflyer · Thu May 05, 2016 11:08 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 22):

Now that thing Beijing don't want to hear about it.

einsteinboricua · Thu May 05, 2016 11:12 am

I wouldn't be surprised if China has already started playing its cards to force public opinion towards complete union come 2047. Because it can select who the leader of Hong Kong will be (similar to Iran, they reject candidates) they can install someone who has a pro-Beijing tone such that when 2047 comes the leader advocates for complete union (or maybe 2049 so Macau can join as well). By then, if HK citizens start to protest, a pro-Beijing security force will already be operational AND if it gets overwhelmed, it can request the aid of the PLA.

This, of course, would happen assuming China's equivalent of baby boomers still cling to the party system and do not alter it in any way. I think there will be reforms on the way and by 2047 China will have opened up more.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 22):
Accordingly to an SCMP survey, over 90% of the people prefer the British

In a choice between what and what?

I'd prefer being stranded in a desert island...over floating in deep ocean, but I'd still enjoy a city far more than either option.

Aesma · Thu May 05, 2016 11:52 am

Chinese citizens are brainwashed from birth, through school, state media, the most powerful censorship machine ever created, imprisonment, torture and murder of opponents, etc. If the same is happening in HK now, then full integration a few decades from now will be no problem.

Flighty · Thu May 05, 2016 1:44 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 24):
I wouldn't be surprised if China has already started playing its cards to force public opinion towards complete union come 2047. Because it can select who the leader of Hong Kong will be (similar to Iran, they reject candidates) they can install someone who has a pro-Beijing tone such that when 2047 comes the leader advocates for complete union (or maybe 2049 so Macau can join as well). By then, if HK citizens start to protest, a pro-Beijing security force will already be operational AND if it gets overwhelmed, it can request the aid of the PLA.

Taking a page from American politics, maybe all good things could be achieved within the current Chinese constitution. It enshrines the popular vote and many other human rights. The Standing Committee is not necessarily the ruler of China. I don't think that is in the Constitution at all. That could be changed. Their socialist government could become more like Sweden (don't laugh too hard).

Elite · Thu May 05, 2016 3:52 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 22):
They rule themselves but they have the Queen as the figurehead and an appointed figurehead governor

Who would do the appointing of the figurehead governor? As much as I despise the current Chief Executive electoral system, I do not believe the appointment of a English speaking, white British career politician shipped over from the UK would do HK any good at all.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 24):
I think there will be reforms on the way and by 2047 China will have opened up more.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 24):
By then, if HK citizens start to protest, a pro-Beijing security force will already be operational AND if it gets overwhelmed, it can request the aid of the PLA.

That scenario does have a hint of Cold War style fear to it. Our only hope is that 2047 is still 30 years away; think of how much has changed in the past 30 years, and there is *some* hope for the next 30 years.

LAX772LR · Sat May 07, 2016 10:02 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
I rather see an independent Hong Kong with the Queen as the figurehead, an appointed governor, an elected prime minister/lower house- The Commonwealth of Hong Kong. Like Australia and Canada

And then you woke up.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 25):
the most powerful censorship machine ever created

pretty sure N.Korea would beg to differ

Quoting Flighty (Reply 26):
Taking a page from American politics, maybe all good things could be achieved within the current Chinese constitution. It enshrines the popular vote and many other human rights.

But like American politics, a piece of paper is only as good as the extent politicians will actually adhere to it.

United Airline · Sun May 08, 2016 6:37 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 24):
In a choice between what and what?

I'd prefer being stranded in a desert island...over floating in deep ocean, but I'd still enjoy a city far more than either option.

Over Chinese rule.

Go to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07D5q3p7Ej0

tommy1808 · Sun May 08, 2016 3:38 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 27):
think of how much has changed in the past 30 years, and there is *some* hope for the next 30 years.

I think there is a lot of hope and I think the decades of one child politics are going to do them in.
A whole generation of Chinese used to get almost anything their parents could give as their only child and will at some point bump into the government that tries to say "no".

Best regards
Thomas

Elite · Sun May 08, 2016 4:48 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 30):
A whole generation of Chinese used to get almost anything their parents could give as their only child and will at some point bump into the government that tries to say "no".

Not sure that would be the reason. Perhaps increased exposure to the world, and studying abroad, will bring more open ideas to the country.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 28):
And then you woke up.

Undeniably, the "pro-independence" fringe groups are rising in numbers... and the question they often ask is, "If Singapore can, why not us?"

CXB77L · Mon May 09, 2016 2:36 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
I rather see an independent Hong Kong with the Queen as the figurehead, an appointed governor, an elected prime minister/lower house- The Commonwealth of Hong Kong. Like Australia and Canada

As much as I'd like to see that happen, I'd have to agree with those who say it's not going to happen. Putting aside my own monarchical alliances for a moment, has there ever been a situation where a country adopts a foreign monarch as their head of state? Is it legally possible under the laws of HKG? And if not, what will need to be done to change the laws in order to adopt Her Majesty as the Head of State?

Quoting United Airline (Reply 22):
The Commonwealth of Hong Kong doesn't mean that Hong Kong wants to be returned to the British. It's like the Canadian/Australian/New Zealand systems. They rule themselves but they have the Queen as the figurehead and an appointed figurehead governor

But HKG doesn't need to be a constitutional monarchy to be part of the Commonwealth. Singapore, Malaysia, India and Pakistan are all part of the Commonwealth, but none of those countries recognise Her Majesty as the head of state. She is the head of the Commonwealth of Nations, not the head of state of each member of the Commonwealth. An independent, sovereign Hong Kong can join the Commonwealth if it chooses to do so.

Quoting Elite (Reply 27):
Who would do the appointing of the figurehead governor?

If it's anything like the Australian system that he is proposing, then the Governor will be appointed by the Prime Minister.

Elite · Tue May 10, 2016 4:08 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 32):
If it's anything like the Australian system that he is proposing, then the Governor will be appointed by the Prime Minister.

I think any "appointment" of a Governor from a foreign nation would be out of the question, even for pro-independence HKers. The whole point of independence is self-governance, and not being dependent on a different country.

UAEflyer · Tue May 10, 2016 5:13 am

Quoting Elite (Reply 33):
I think any "appointment" of a Governor from a foreign nation would be out of the question, even for pro-independence HKers. The whole point of independence is self-governance, and not being dependent on a different country.

The point is that the UK system says that the head of the state is appointed with no executive power, while the elected position ( prime minister or first minister ) have the power is association with his party which have the majority in the parliament.
The fact (whether we like it or no ) Hong Kong forever will be under China and there is no way that it will be independent, one of the major factor the UK decided to negotiate with China and return it back is the military power of P.L.A
Otherwise the Singaporean method which was created by the help of the British will be easily implemented in Hong Kong. the formula was do not allow referendum and HK will be free for 50 years.

Polot · Tue May 10, 2016 12:59 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 31):
Undeniably, the "pro-independence" fringe groups are rising in numbers... and the question they often ask is, "If Singapore can, why not us?"

The difference is, of course, Singapore was not owned by China and was only part of Malaysia for 2 years.

We should ask the Tibetans how easy it is to become independent from China.

Elite · Tue May 10, 2016 1:55 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 35):

The difference is, of course, Singapore was not owned by China and was only part of Malaysia for 2 years.

But surely it proves Hong Kong is not too small to not only survive on its own, but to continue to thrive?

Flighty · Tue May 10, 2016 2:50 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 35):
We should ask the Tibetans how easy it is to become independent from China.

Here in the US we have also had states try to leave. Didn't go well.

So I am not sure why we go on about Tibet.

CXB77L · Tue May 10, 2016 3:12 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 33):
I think any "appointment" of a Governor from a foreign nation

The Governor will be a Hong Konger and will be Her Majesty's representative in Hong Kong, appointed by the leader of the governing party of the time - just like the Australian Governor-General is an Australian.

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 34):
The point is that the UK system says that the head of the state is appointed with no executive power, while the elected position ( prime minister or first minister ) have the power is association with his party which have the majority in the parliament.

That's not entirely correct. Her Majesty is the head of state, and she is neither appointed nor has no executive powers. She has reserve powers; the fact that she rarely uses them is a different matter.

But for all intents and purposes, you are quite right, constitutional monarchies govern themselves, and the Monarch is but a figurehead.

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 34):
The fact (whether we like it or no ) Hong Kong forever will be under China and there is no way that it will be independent

This is where I disagree. It is possible for Hong Kong to declare its independence from China. Whether it is prudent to do so or not is an entirely different matter.

However, in order for Hong Kong to be its own independent nation, not only does Hong Kong need to resolve to be independent, it also needs international recognition of Hong Kong as a separate state (like Taiwan), which hasn't happened as yet (because we are still part of China). But the people of Hong Kong nevertheless have the right to self determination under international law, that if they choose to, they can become their own independent state. And when they do, maybe they will be recognised as such by the international community.

Polot · Tue May 10, 2016 3:41 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 36):
But surely it proves Hong Kong is not too small to not only survive on its own, but to continue to thrive?

It could probably survive and thrive on its own, but it is a matter of whether China would accept that. Hong Kong is not powerful enough to fight off the Chinese alone. As CXB77L says it needs international recognition and support. How readily HK would receive that depends on a lot of factors that we can only speculate over at this time (namely, how powerful China would be in 2047 and the necessity of maintaining good graces with them).

Taiwan was lucky- it separated during a period of immense turmoil over ideological differences in China, and before China became a major global player. If they were to have declared independence today Taiwan would have much greater difficulty in receiving international recognition as an independent country as many countries would not want to rock the boat (China).

Keep in mind we are talking about a country that is building islands in the disputed South China Sea. You think, with their current mindset, that the Chinese would accept a pro-independence vote from HK?

[Edited 2016-05-10 08:47:32]

LAX772LR · Wed May 11, 2016 5:35 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 38):
However, in order for Hong Kong to be its own independent nation, not only does Hong Kong need to resolve to be independent, it also needs international recognition of Hong Kong as a separate state (like Taiwan), which hasn't happened as yet (because we are still part of China). But the people of Hong Kong nevertheless have the right to self determination under international law, that if they choose to, they can become their own independent state. And when they do, maybe they will be recognised as such by the international community.

Look on the bright side:
maybe we'll get to see more British Airways Asia or Air France Asie aircraft, if they do.
Would look smashing on an A388.

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