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aloges
Posts: 14807
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:38 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:27 pm

It's quite sad to see how the tone set by Farage (nasty, disrespectful and full of bile) seems to have carried over into this and many other discussions.

If you're angry that a significant number of Britons based their vote on ignorance or even the idea that "it wasn't going to count anyway", don't start thinking that country is full of such people - it isn't.
If you're disappointed by the outcome, voice it, but please don't jump on the "Let 'em suffer - all of them!" bandwagon. That would be a 21st century equivalent of gunboat diplomacy.
If you believe that the EU will be better off without the UK and should carry on as before, please remember that its history is one of fundamental changes. Apart from the idea that a cooperating Europe is a safe and prosperous Europe and that cooperation needs organisation, very little is sacrosanct.
If to you, voting to leave the EU over disagreements is the same as cutting off your nose to spite your face, please consider: brats* don't usually "step into line" if you punish them. What they do is refine their defiance.
And finally: if you, wherever you're from, harbour a deep desire to kick Nigel in the unmentionables, please join the queue. :mrgreen:


*Obviously, I am not calling Leave voters brats. Apart from a few of them, perhaps. ;)
 
aerlingus330
Posts: 812
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2004 2:21 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:34 pm

With regards to the speed of withdrawing from the EU and preceding negotiations; I think it very much rests on the feelings of the 'Core six' (France, Germany, Italy, Benelux) towards the UK.

Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon is silent on much of the detail, in fact it mentions that a member state must 'notify the commission of intention'. This does not stipulate in what form that must take, the EU could interperate any pre-negotiations with the Council as the start button for article 50, whether the UK like it or not.

The EU has much more power over the timescale than many think.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
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Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:39 pm

scbriml wrote:
Klaus wrote:
That ship has sailed.


Agreed. But that doesn't change the fact that the clock doesn't start ticking until the UK Government officially notifies the EU that it is invoking Article 50.


Given the various statements by now it looks rather unlikely that Cameron will be able to draw out the delay until October.

While there will certainly be some reasonable goodwill to allow for a few days more, I doubt it will be more than only a few weeks. As I've said: Britain needs concessions from the EU, and right at the start of long, complex negotiations which everybody knows will be critical for you but much less so for the other side slapping the stronger party in the face would just be a dumb move.

Beyond some face-saving minimum I seriously doubt that there will be any months-long extension while all the other EU members are aleady suffering economically from the results of the Brexit referendum.

The british conservatives would certainly love to have that much time to sout out their own internal mess, but I don't expect that they will.

Klaus wrote:
I recommend you to keep comparing your rosy expectations to the actual reality in the coming months and years.


I have no rosy expectations. In case you've missed the obvious, I voted to remain.


So noted, but I was still referring to your expressed assessment of the british negotiating position there, and given what you wrote it still looks like you've adopted some of the brexit argments there which look a lot less realistic from the EU side.

Klaus wrote:
Sure. If the UK doesn't care what the results of the negotiations will be, that is.


Are you suggesting, for example, that Germany doesn't want to sell all those expensive cars in the UK any more? :lol:


Sure. Just much less badly than the UK needing access to the common market.

As a result, the most plausible outcome will ironically be the UK having to actually pay more than before (due to the Thatcher discount evaporating and no coherence funding being returned any more), having to follow almost all the same EU regulations as before (required for access to the common market), notably including free movement for EU citizens (dito), while no longer having a say about any of it (which – contrary to the pervasive propaganda in large parts of the UK media and political platforms – actually was the case before the referendum ended british influence in the EU).

One critical issue there is that the UK can at best expect circa the swiss or norwegian model
there; That is pretty much the ceiling for a new treaty in order to protect those existing treaties.

It will be interesting to watch Farage and Johnson trying to explain that to their followers as the result of them winning the referendum.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 14753
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Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:45 pm

Klaus wrote:
One critical issue there is that the UK can at best expect circa the swiss or norwegian model
there; That is pretty much the ceiling for a new treaty in order to protect those existing treaties.

It will be interesting to watch Farage and Johnson trying to explain that to their followers as the result of them winning the referendum.


The problem is that Brexiters won't want such a deal.
 
aerlingus330
Posts: 812
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2004 2:21 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:54 pm

'The problem is that Brexiters won't want such a deal.'

The thing is, that the Brexiters are heavily divided themselves, hence the number of campaigns that were created. Some focus on the lack of democratic legitimacy, some on immigration, some on the economy, some on red tape etc. There is no unifying ethos that runs through them.

It will depend on who becomes PM in October. As feared, if it's Boris, I think its quite clear that he will advocate to stay within the single market. When he announced that he was backing Brexit, he did so on the argument that a 'leave' vote would send a message to the EU in order to gain more concessions.

The question was not 'Do you wish to remain in the Single Market'; it was about the EU, and pro-single-marketers will interperate the referendum results as a vote against political integration, not a vote against open borders (as Farage is eager to).

The next PM will have extraordinary powers in interpreting the result to their own ideology.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
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Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:58 pm

aloges wrote:
If you're angry that a significant number of Britons based their vote on ignorance or even the idea that "it wasn't going to count anyway", don't start thinking that country is full of such people - it isn't.


No, it's not. And I particularly feel with the millions of britons who tried to avert this outcome, but also with many who were just duped into voting against their own actual interests or better instincts.

If you're disappointed by the outcome, voice it, but please don't jump on the "Let 'em suffer - all of them!" bandwagon. That would be a 21st century equivalent of gunboat diplomacy.


That won't happen and I'm not advocating it either.

My point is just that elections have consequences, and even with plenty of goodwill on the EU side in this case (which at this point still exists) the consequences of Brexit will be substantial and enduring.

And finally: if you, wherever you're from, harbour a deep desire to kick Nigel in the unmentionables, please join the queue.


When just a few days after the murder of Jo Cox a smirking Nigel Farage crowed that "We won without a single shot fired!" I would have punched him in the face had I been close enough. He's an odious, hateful man at the best of times, but that was just too much.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20120
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:00 pm

aloges wrote:
It's quite sad to see how the tone set by Farage (nasty, disrespectful and full of bile) seems to have carried over into this and many other discussions.

If you're angry that a significant number of Britons based their vote on ignorance or even the idea that "it wasn't going to count anyway", don't start thinking that country is full of such people - it isn't.


There are more than a few stupid people who voted to leave for all the wrong reasons. Now, apparently, lots of them are having Bregrets. What have you done, you idiots? *banghead*

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 02516.html
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:02 pm

Aesma wrote:
Klaus wrote:
One critical issue there is that the UK can at best expect circa the swiss or norwegian model
there; That is pretty much the ceiling for a new treaty in order to protect those existing treaties.

It will be interesting to watch Farage and Johnson trying to explain that to their followers as the result of them winning the referendum.


The problem is that Brexiters won't want such a deal.


Probably not. But that's their problem, not the EU's.

The EU will offer this (with some minor customizable variations), or no access to the common market at all:

"Pick one."
 
GDB
Posts: 14396
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:26 pm

[quote="Klaus"]

The british conservatives would certainly love to have that much time to sout out their own internal mess, but I don't expect that they will.

For context, their internal mess on Europe has spanned across a generation or more and destroyed the careers of the last three Tory PM's, Thatcher, Major and now Cameron.
We look in bemusement and incomprehension at the attitudes of the US Republicans on issues like Climate Change, Gun Laws, Healthcare etc but on Europe, a large chunk of the Tory party is just as irrational and ultimately self destructive. But not just to themselves now.

Cameron had to throw red meat at them to first become leader and then in government, the emergence of UKIP initially as a sort of Tory Militant Tendency created more concerns/panic leading to his referendum pledge in 2013, what was it that Churchill said about 'feeding the crocodile?'
That's why so many of us are so mad about it all, it's a comedy of errors that is now no laughing matter.

I doubt Brexit voters will be too amused by this;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36628894

And if he wasn't enough;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36629300

Scbriml, I suspect your new handle on here will very soon be the basis of a popular t-shirt, twitter hashtag etc, if not in the works already.
Last edited by GDB on Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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scbriml
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Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:28 pm

Klaus wrote:
One critical issue there is that the UK can at best expect circa the swiss or norwegian model
there; That is pretty much the ceiling for a new treaty in order to protect those existing treaties.


Agreed, that is absolutely the best we can expect. And yes, it will likely cost us more than before. But at least we'll be able to spend the money we save on the NHS. Oh...

Look, I'm trying to be pragmatic and in the end I believe the EU will be reasonable. I'm encouraged by Angela Merkel's words today which I reported up-thread.

Klaus wrote:
Probably not. But that's their problem, not the EU's.


Yep, we've made our bed, now we have to lie in it...

aerlingus330 wrote:
Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon is silent on much of the detail, in fact it mentions that a member state must 'notify the commission of intention'. This does not stipulate in what form that must take, the EU could interperate any pre-negotiations with the Council as the start button for article 50, whether the UK like it or not.


Not according to an EC spokesman.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36631518
But a European Council spokesman reiterated on Saturday that triggering Article 50 was a formal act which must be "done by the British government to the European Council".

"It has to be done in an unequivocal manner with the explicit intent to trigger Article 50," the spokesman said.
 
aerlingus330
Posts: 812
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2004 2:21 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:48 pm

Legally speaking, the silence of the treaty on the matter makes it open to interpretation.
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:02 pm

[quote="scbriml"]
Yep, toys are flying out of the pram at quite a rate.*

But that doesn't change the fact that the clock doesn't start ticking until the UK Government officially notifies the EU that it is invoking Article 50.

*...and now insults from a member I certainly did not expect.
Can't you see that your arrogance is what drives people away from you ?

And you seem to forget that there will be TWO parts in thenegociations :
1) about the "divorce" in which the EU would like things to be expedited, first because it's prolonging the uncertainty and preventing the EU from getting on with quite a few items that would not need much longer delays : immigration / defence policy / terrorism / and the new proposals for the Union. During that time Britain would not need a lot of talks as they would have their hands and their parliament awfully busy dealing with the tens of thousands of articles of rules and regulations inherited from the EU, chose what to keep and discard what's not needed any longer....

2) the divorce being then consumated, it will be time to negociate the trade relations between Britain and the EU... and then to think that the EU would be desperate to get England to trade with them is , again the epitome of navel-gazing or the wettest dream sceptic tory negociators would ever have....
... and remember : after two years have elapsed, the negociations will be just suspended : what has been agreed upon will be implemented... as for the rest, all options are / will be open.( Depends on how optimistic one is )

What will make these negociations more urgent for Britain is the fact that they would be eager to establish a new platform for services exports to the EU... As some have written, most of the EU countries would accommodate some WTO-style level of tariffs for goods ; banking, ads... services would be a lot more difficult to agree upon, especially when it is for Britain a net contribution to their economy.
I certainly do not think that pissing the EU countries off after a divorce would be the best policy to follow.
Who's got the best trump cards for the game ?
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:12 pm

scbriml wrote:
Klaus wrote:
One critical issue there is that the UK can at best expect circa the swiss or norwegian model
there; That is pretty much the ceiling for a new treaty in order to protect those existing treaties.


Agreed, that is absolutely the best we can expect. And yes, it will likely cost us more than before. But at least we'll be able to spend the money we save on the NHS. Oh...


I actually don't think that the UK economy would have to be that much worse off with a Norway-type deal, but while the payments would be comparable, there would be no more say in european matters and a good chunk of the financial sector would still be gone (as would be any reciprocal subsidies).

Still entirely a step down from the status quo, but not too far, necessarily. Just difficult to digest for those who believed much of the Brexit campaign rethoric.

Look, I'm trying to be pragmatic and in the end I believe the EU will be reasonable. I'm encouraged by Angela Merkel's words today which I reported up-thread.


Which are entirely in character for her. Exotic punishments would not serve any constructive purpose either, would be entirely out of her style and would only lead to even further destabilization, which is the last thing anyone can want right now.

An orderly process – but without any british grandstanding either! – is what she will put her weight behind; Which – contrary to some people's beliefs – is substantial in the EU, but actually not entirely dominant. But having Angela Merkel on the UK government's side in the process will still be very valuable.

Which is why making Boris Johnson the next PM would be extremely unhelpful. Angela Merkel has survived a substantial number of self-aggrandizing egomaniacs so far (and currently has her hands full with the latest model in Horst Seehofer, the head of the bavarian sister party), so Johnson and Merkel would be like fire and (silently but intensely annoyed) water.

I don't know much about Theresa May, but at least at first glance she might get more done during the process together with the other EU leaders than an insincere, grandstanding buffoon who had just created the whole mess in the first place. He would be a distraction first and foremost, and a hindrance to any substantial, constructive progress which is sorely needed now.

Klaus wrote:
Probably not. But that's their problem, not the EU's.


Yep, we've made our bed, now we have to lie in it...


And watching the primary offenders squirming and seeking excuses or distractions might almost be worth having had to watch their lies and disinformation earlier.

The regular british voters are another matter, and for most I feel no glee (just some considerable desperation about some); But a major referendum such as this has consequences like any election; Unfortunately for those who had opposed it in the first place, too.

aerlingus330 wrote:
Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon is silent on much of the detail, in fact it mentions that a member state must 'notify the commission of intention'. This does not stipulate in what form that must take, the EU could interperate any pre-negotiations with the Council as the start button for article 50, whether the UK like it or not.


Not according to an EC spokesman.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36631518
But a European Council spokesman reiterated on Saturday that triggering Article 50 was a formal act which must be "done by the British government to the European Council".

"It has to be done in an unequivocal manner with the explicit intent to trigger Article 50," the spokesman said.


That would be more a choice taken by this Commission than explicitly rooted in the article, and of course having a signed and dated written document in hand leaves fewer openings for complaints than notes taken from a meeting.
 
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Braybuddy
Posts: 6972
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Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:19 pm

Just been talking to some relatives who were visiting their extended family in the nationalist community in Belfast when the results came through. Apparently they were all in shock, with one of the kids -- and her German partner -- crying. They were all fearful for the peace process if some sort of border were to be reinstated between the North and the Republic. They spoke of Unionists talking about applying for Irish passports, something they would NEVER have contemplated before. The world is truly turning on its head . . .

This referendum is very different in that, instead of giving people something, it will be taking something away (EU citizenship). Giving something is much more palatable than taking something, so it really does remain to be seen what way this will all play out.
 
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RobK
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Re: EU referendum today

Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:51 pm

scbriml wrote:
aloges wrote:
It's quite sad to see how the tone set by Farage (nasty, disrespectful and full of bile) seems to have carried over into this and many other discussions.

If you're angry that a significant number of Britons based their vote on ignorance or even the idea that "it wasn't going to count anyway", don't start thinking that country is full of such people - it isn't.


There are more than a few stupid people who voted to leave for all the wrong reasons. Now, apparently, lots of them are having Bregrets. What have you done, you idiots? *banghead*

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 02516.html


Fine, let them change their vote to 'remain' if they want. Those extra 10 or 20 votes are merely a splash in the ocean against the ONE MILLION+ vote difference to leave.

Keep clutching at those straws my friend. You're going to need them all and then some.
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:08 am

I would say that the "Leave" voters were more informed and interested in the "Remain" camp. Sure you have million or two industrialists, traders, bankers etc who have a vested interest in remaining, no matter what damage it does to the middle class and lower class, but how many millions voted "Remain" simply because 1) it's the safe thing to do - no change, or 2) because they believed all the fear-mongering crap from the Globalists about it leading to war, depression etc. Voting to "Leave" meant taking and accepting some risk, and people don't do that unless they have informed opinions about it. The principles of sovereignty and self-determination are important in Britain, going back to the Magna Carta. That's worth some discomfort.
 
Klaus
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Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:11 am

RobK wrote:
Fine, let them change their vote to 'remain' if they want. Those extra 10 or 20 votes are merely a splash in the ocean against the ONE MILLION+ vote difference to leave.

Keep clutching at those straws my friend. You're going to need them all and then some.


Well, the petition is at about 2.7 million signatures at this time, growing by about 100.000 per hour even now during the night.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Interestingly, the government response indication has just changed from "1 day" to "2 days". Why?

Not that the petition by itself meant much, necessarily, since most signatories will be "remain" voters, obviously. But as petitions go, it's a bit large to just summarily ignore.

Together with the generational and particularly the regional split there could be arguments to question the relatively small referendum majority, even if normally it should be untouchable given the predefined ground rules. Setting a simple, unqualified majority as the goalpost for an exit had been idiotic given the obvious repercussions.

But extremely difficult to justify getting out of now after the fact.
 
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pu
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Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:13 am

scbriml wrote:

Angela Merkel doesn't seem to be as negative towards the UK as some members here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36630326
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said the European Union has "no need to be particularly nasty in any way" in the negotiations with Britain about its exit from the bloc.

She insisted that deterring other countries from leaving the EU should not be a priority in the talks.

And she added she was not in favour of pushing for a speedy withdrawal.


Exactly.

Note especially that deterring others from similar moves is not a correct negotiating concern.

Ironic that the referendum is seen as voting with emotion over reason when the biggest EU fans are now responding with emotion over reason.

The cost of not having free access to the "single market" for the UK might be 2%, 4%, or 6% of GDP, but the cost to Germany and France will be at least 1%, 2%, or 3% of GDP by losing free access to the British market.

So, sure the UK could be punished but only by the EU receiving at least half as much pain in return. Merkel won't allow this, France cannot afford this.

The UK is not Norway/Switzerland. They bring unmatched influence in the world among EU states through the Anglosphere, Commonwealth and most former colonies. Most importantly the UK is Europe's best voice in the USA.

They will get a deal something like this:

1: continue to pay into the EU at about the same rate
2: complete self control over immigration and movement of workers policy
3: a nominal reduction in the requirement for adopting Brussels-made rules into domestic policy

(as long as the UK solves one of its three big EU complaints: immigration, money paid in or Brussels rulemaking, it will accept other EU stipulations by a safe popular majority; likewise as long as the EU gets its money everything else is negotiable)

....which very well could mean every other nation demands the same thing, which is fine since I suspect a looser EU structure is THE WILL OF EUROPEAN majorities in most every nation, except maybe Germany.



Pu.
Last edited by pu on Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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777Jet
Posts: 6987
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Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:40 am

As for the fools wanting another vote (re-vote on Brexit)... LOL x infinity...

People have been commenting on how close this vote would be for weeks.

Then the markets favored the 'remain' campaign and people who might have gone out to vote remain became complacent and didn't vote.

If you didn't bother turning out to vote, or for some reason you decided to be a smart ass and vote to leave just for the sake of it, well in Thailand people would say 'Som Nam Na' - it serves you right! You only have yourself to blame...

Think of the positive - Eventually the EU will have one less successful member for the more reckless members to suck dry, leach off, bring down and slowly destroy...

Aesma wrote:
Despite what many say the EU doesn't rule people.


59% of the laws imposed on British people are made in Brussels.

Regards.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7165
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:25 am

Let's for once also have a look at the bright side of Brexit.

When the referendum was announced the £ traded around €1.40. While fear of Brexit was building up it dropped to around €1.30, and now it is €1.23.

Consequently we save 17 cent on every pound spent on our holidays in Britain compared to last year!!!

(Except that British petrol prices have already adjusted to the new situation :?: )
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:29 am

777Jet wrote:
As for the fools wanting another vote (re-vote on Brexit)... LOL x infinity...

People have been commenting on how close this vote would be for weeks.


Europhiles are famous for finding ways to ignore votes that don't go their way. Watch out - this fight has just begun. There are very powerful vested interests in big business and politics to stay in the EU, and they have not given up. Expect a lot of lies and cheating over the next few months.
 
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HGL
Posts: 330
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Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:46 am

777Jet wrote:
59% of the laws imposed on British people are made in Brussels.
Such laws are adopted into British law by the UK Parliament only as a result of input by the UK in the first place. National governments are free to formally express reservations if they believe an issue is better dealt with at a national level rather than EU level.

Ordinary Laws are adopted by the EU as a process involving agreement between the European Council which is made up of the head of government of the member states (i.e. including the British prime minister) and the European Parliament following proposals made by the European Commission. Special Laws are those in which the elected European Parliament alone decides.

Proposals by the European Commission are made extensive consultation with interested parties such as non-governmental organisations, local authorities and representatives of industry and civil society. Groups of experts give advice on technical issues. Citizens, businesses and organisations can participate in the consultation procedure via its website. Note, the Commission does not "make" the laws, it drafts them to ensure similar standards throughout the EU. If laws are adopted, it is the Commission's responsibility to ensure that they are complied with.

If the European Parliament (which includes directly elected members from the UK) does not agree to a legislative proposal it does not become law.

Given that the UK currently has a say in those laws, it is simplistic to assert that they (the laws) are imposed upon them. Eventually leaving the EU will not remove those laws. The UK Parliament would need to decide which to retain and which to repeal but if it wants to continue to do business with the EU it will still be bound by much of the body of EU law. The difference is that the UK would no longer have a say in their making.

I am not sure which is better. Being bound by something without a say and imagining oneself to be free or having a say and being able to influence the outcome.
Last edited by HGL on Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:48 am

Dreadnought wrote:
777Jet wrote:
As for the fools wanting another vote (re-vote on Brexit)... LOL x infinity...

People have been commenting on how close this vote would be for weeks.


Europhiles are famous for finding ways to ignore votes that don't go their way. Watch out - this fight has just begun. There are very powerful vested interests in big business and politics to stay in the EU, and they have not given up. Expect a lot of lies and cheating over the next few months.


I see the conspiracy theories are still as strong with you as they always have been.

In actual fact Britain has jumped and gravity has already taken over. It is very, very unlikely that somebody will actually attempt to catch the fall this far down, and even less likely that they could actually succeed.

The petition above is a desperate attempt which the UK government will almost certainly reject in accordance with David Cameron's explicit statement, and the EU side is already fully committed anyway.

You're too late.
Last edited by Klaus on Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Alias1024
Posts: 2814
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:50 am

Dreadnought wrote:
Voting to "Leave" meant taking and accepting some risk, and people don't do that unless they have informed opinions about it.

I would agree with this if you removed the word informed. You don't have to be informed to have an opinion, believe you are right, and act on that belief. I think there were a great number on both sides that were uninformed going into this vote, as evidenced by the popular google searches out of Great Britain after the vote results were announced. There were also plenty of informed voters on both sides.

While I don't share your disdain for "the elites", there is clearly a point that leaders in British government need to pay attention to. A large part of the British people feel that the current system has failed them. Whether it is economics, social structure and societal values, or simply feeling like they have a voice in how their nation is run, a lot of people are not happy. It's time for some soul searching in the political establishment.

Don't feel bad Brits, we're right there with you on this side of the pond. Donald Trump gets laughed off the stage if a large number of Americans aren't feeling the same way. Kicked to the curb economically, ignored politically, maligned by the higher ups in society. I don't agree with Trump on much, but I can see why he's found such a following.
 
Derico
Posts: 4500
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Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:47 am

pu wrote:
The cost of not having free access to the "single market" for the UK might be 2%, 4%, or 6% of GDP, but the cost to Germany and France will be at least 1%, 2%, or 3% of GDP by losing free access to the British market.

So, sure the UK could be punished but only by the EU receiving at least half as much pain in return. Merkel won't allow this, France cannot afford this.

The UK is not Norway/Switzerland. They bring unmatched influence in the world among EU states through the Anglosphere, Commonwealth and most former colonies. Most importantly the UK is Europe's best voice in the USA.


Except the numbers don't match what you just said. Just on population alone Germany and France have 125% more population, and the single market is also Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Poland, and the Scandinavians, combined they about 5 times plus the population of Britain. Half as much pain is not an accurate statement.

And I think there is absolutely 0 chance the UK will get a better deal than before. While I agree the EU should not seek out to purposefully make it hard on the UK, that will backfire on the EU's future stability (it is counter-intuitive, but if you punish countries that leave you make it much harder for them to rejoin later), if they get a better deal then absolutely everyone else will want out. So over-punishing is not good, but neither is bending backwards. The UK should really have never left, or just go it completely alone. The middle ground will certainly be a big loser for them.

And they probably will lose their discounts, their Calais deal, and the other concessions throughout the years. In the unlikely event in the future they want to re-join, they will not have Schengen and Euro and the other exceptions.

All in all it is a very stupid move strategically UNLESS they are really really going to go it completely alone, with very little relations with the EU, and just full-throttle on trade with North America, China, India, Japan/Korea, Commonwealth, South America to make up for it.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 2359
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:43 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:49 am

It seems that Brexit has brought out the nutters in the UK to the fore.

Good luck, those who have voted to remain and the immigrants who thought Britain was a place to get a fresh start.

http://www.facebook.com/sarah.leblanc.7 ... 985&type=3
 
GDB
Posts: 14396
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:53 am

How best to illustrate the sheer self destructive ignorance of many who voted Brexit?
there is this;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... -ebbw-vale

If I was running TVR and other companies planning to relocate there I'd think again, hopefully to another part of the UK but of course that might be less likely too.
Farage is getting his excuses in early saying if there was a downturn/recession there would have been one anyway.

Not that far from that town, a new higher education facility was due with EU cash, they can kiss goodbye to that.

In Cornwall, where EU infrastructure is also common and vital, same story, voted heavily Brexit but some there are already saying they still want the money and projects. Also, as in many other other parts of the UK who voted that way, they have very low numbers of immigrants.

How to compound this stupidity further? Thinking a UK government led by people who are the real 'metropolitan elitists' and far less concerned by areas that don't return Tory MP's will somehow pick up the slack on these sort of projects?

Many pages of comments on the article above, did not plough through them all but this one struck me;

MarkNeddy The_Raven 1h ago

10
11
My fellow Citizen of Great Britain.
A PLEA.
I am writing the at 03:10 in the morning on Sunday 26/6. I have had little sleep since Friday's Brexit announcement. I am an 'Essex' man, a Conservative 'wet', and a father. I voted Remain despite my distaste for much of how the EU operates.b
What we know so far:

FACTS...
* The Pound has suffered massive instability - this will have a negative impact on business confidence.
* The FTSE has plummeted, along with the rest of the worlds stock markets. This is important to you and me as our pensions are funded by investments in the stock markets. As an illustration, my workmates pension portfolio lost more on Friday than he earn't in the last 4 years, even after the bounce.
* The people of the world are largely incredulous this has happened. This is reflected in media headlines and news items that are easily found on the Internet. Eg/ "The numbing news that Britain has voted to leave the European Union is the worst step backward for Europe -- and for Western civilization -- since the end of World War II." CNN. This type of reaction has destroyed our standing in the world almost overnight.
* N Korea, ISIS and Russia have reacted with astounded delight.
* Nigel Farage has admitted that the '£350million a week will be spent on the NHS' was 'a mistake'.
* Daniel Hannon - pro-Brexit MEP has admitted that 'of course' freedom of movement will have to remain if we wish to access the EU Open Market.
* Nicola Sturgeon is demanding a vote for Scotland to leave the UK. All predictions are she would win a second referendum. This would create further business uncertainty.
* Michael Gove said 'nobody is interested in the opinions of experts'. All of these opinions are coming true. Factually. Strangely the expert opinions seem to be correct.
* Sinn Fein in N Ireland are also demanding a vote to leave the UK.
* A Labour MP has been shot and killed. To claim this has 'nothing to do' with the campaign is disingenuous. Of course it has.
* Polls show those under 45 were much more likely to vote Remain. Those over 45 were much more likely to vote leave.
* I could go on, however this "Daily Mail article illustrates many of the other practical negatives of what will happen next - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... cover.html.

ANECDOTE
* My sons friend's Father has been given a '7 day layoff' next week while his firm considers whether they are going to invest in a new site he is meant to be moving too. The fact this occurred on Friday is no coincidence.
* A close friend who works at the nearest University was called to an emergency meeting on Friday to plan how (high paying) foreign student numbers would be maintained when world opinion will paint us as 'backward, xenophobic and racist'.
* On Friday, a nice Polish girl in my son's class was spat on, and told to 'F*** off back to where you belong'. She was sent home in tears! Unable to carry on with her day! (sorry - this one really upset me).

OPINION
* We are heading to the largest, deepest, longest recession in UK history. We could have activated a global recession. Everything that has occurred since Friday backs this opinion.
* We were lied to by the Brexit campaigners. Again and again.
* What war or terrorism could not accomplish, Brexit will - the end of the U.K., and the destruction of our economy.

MY PERSONAL OPINION
Nobody in government has a clue what to do next. We are led by pygmies.

PLEASE ACT NOW TO SAVE THE COUNTRY YOU LOVE.
Please write to your MP immediately.This could be via email or letter. State...
* I voted leave. I did this due to my anger over the direction our country was going in.
* However I now realise this was a deep error. I still don't like the EU, but the country is disintegrating before my eyes. To continue down this path would be madness.
* Please lobby for a freeze in any negotiation with the EU to leave.
* Please call a second referendum as soon as practically possible.

<<You can find your MPs contact details here - http://www.parliament.uk/get-involved/contact-your-mp/>>

It may already be too late - what we have done has already tarnished our standing in the world, knocked business confidence, and stirred up unrest and hate in communities. However...not to do anything would be insanity. I fear we will now sleepwalk to oblivion. I'm not being hysterical. This is happening. Can you live with yourself if you do nothing? If only 10% of you who read this act, it will have an impact.

I suspect I will get a huge amount of abuse in the reply section so won't be checking back on the comments. Just think however. Think.

Thank you for reading. I am now going to forward this to my local MP. I'll try and get some sleep now.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20120
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:55 am

Pihero wrote:
*...and now insults from a member I certainly did not expect.


Wasn't intended as an insult, but an observation of the attitude of some here and in the EU to the news. Apologies if anyone was insulted - I'm angry that the future of my family has been damaged by idiots who simply don't understand what they've done.

Pihero wrote:
And you seem to forget that there will be TWO parts in thenegociations


I don't believe this is correct. The two-year clock starts ticking as soon as the UK Government officially notifies the EC of it's intent to invoke Article 50.

The UK remains a member of the EU until the two year period is completed or sooner if agreements are in place. Only at that point, to use your analogy, are we divorced.

RobK wrote:
Fine, let them change their vote to 'remain' if they want. Those extra 10 or 20 votes are merely a splash in the ocean against the ONE MILLION+ vote difference to leave.

Keep clutching at those straws my friend. You're going to need them all and then some.


Naive of you to think it's just 10 or 20 and interesting that before the count Farage was demanding a second referendum if the result was 52-48 in favour of staying! :lol:

I'm not clutching at any straws - we had our vote and, IMHO, have fucked-up big time. I'm ready to move on.

Dreadnaught wrote:
I would say that the "Leave" voters were more informed


Absolutely not. Many idiots on TV yesterday saying "I voted leave, but I didn't think it would actually happen. Now I'm worried I've made a mistake." :roll:

GDB wrote:
In Cornwall, where EU infrastructure is also common and vital, same story, voted heavily Brexit but some there are already saying they still want the money and projects. Also, as in many other other parts of the UK who voted that way, they have very low numbers of immigrants.


Same thing in Wales - recieves huge amounts of EU money, votes to leave! Turkeys voting for Christmas.
 
teahan
Posts: 4994
Joined: Sun Nov 21, 1999 11:18 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:40 am

An interesting read:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 38/138.pdf

House of Lords report on the the process of withdrawing from the European Union.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14664
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:53 am

pu wrote:
2: complete self control over immigration and movement of workers policy
3: a nominal reduction in the requirement for adopting Brussels-made rules into domestic policy


Nope. All that is the common market, those are not separate things to be negotiated.

It is pretty much that, or WTO style tariffs. That would be a nightmare for the UK banking industry. And that is 10% of the GDP right there.

In 10 years the Kingdom of England and Wales won't have much international weight left either. By choice of their citizens. Wow.

Best regards
Thomas
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20120
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:10 am

tommy1808 wrote:
In 10 years the Kingdom of England and Wales won't have much international weight left either. By choice of their citizens. Wow.

Best regards
Thomas


By choice of about 35% of eligible voters. Even worse.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14664
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:20 am

Dreadnought wrote:
I would say that the "Leave" voters were more informed and interested in the "Remain" camp.


You mean to say that people buying into the 350.000 £ a week that would become available to be funneled in the NHS bullshit were well informed?
Google trend also now shows that people only try to get some facts after the fact. "What is the EU" and "what happens if we leave the EU" searches explode...

Best regards
Thomas
 
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seahawk
Posts: 10384
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:53 am

scbriml wrote:
Klaus wrote:

Look, I'm trying to be pragmatic and in the end I believe the EU will be reasonable. I'm encouraged by Angela Merkel's words today which I reported up-thread.



You mean the same Merkel the Brexiters blamed for everything bad in the EU?

But the biggest problem is not the EU, it is the UK. I am certain that a deal similar to Switzerland and Norway would be possible, but this would not achieve what the Brexiters want. Brussels would still make laws that would have to be followed in the UK, people from the EU would still be open to work and live in the UK.

Switzerland is not in the EU because they are a neutral country as therefore are not willing or able to follow the foreign policy of the EU. Norway is out of it because they want to protect their Oil money.
 
Olddog
Posts: 1643
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:59 am

Look at the EU parliament today: they asked UK to start negotiations immediately.
 
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RobK
Posts: 4047
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:43 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:19 am

Klaus wrote:
RobK wrote:
Fine, let them change their vote to 'remain' if they want. Those extra 10 or 20 votes are merely a splash in the ocean against the ONE MILLION+ vote difference to leave.

Keep clutching at those straws my friend. You're going to need them all and then some.


Well, the petition is at about 2.7 million signatures at this time, growing by about 100.000 per hour even now during the night.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Interestingly, the government response indication has just changed from "1 day" to "2 days". Why?

Not that the petition by itself meant much, necessarily, since most signatories will be "remain" voters, obviously. But as petitions go, it's a bit large to just summarily ignore.


Please tell me you're really not as stupid as you're making out here?

You do realise that the parliament petition that you've linked to is a hack and not legit in the slightest? Perhaps you should look at the JSON data for the signatures and then explain to me why 26,000 votes are from North Korea, 2,000 votes are from The Vatican (which has a population of roughly 1,000), 2,800 votes from the Antarctic, etc etc.

And then there is this for you to ponder on as well :

Image

The petition received just under 100,000 signatures between 2.00 to 3.00 am this morning when the vast majority of the UK were asleep. You reckon that's legit?
 
LSZH34
Posts: 655
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:33 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:23 am

GDB wrote:
How best to illustrate the sheer self destructive ignorance of many who voted Brexit?
there is this;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... -ebbw-vale

If I was running TVR and other companies planning to relocate there I'd think again, hopefully to another part of the UK but of course that might be less likely too.
Farage is getting his excuses in early saying if there was a downturn/recession there would have been one anyway.

Not that far from that town, a new higher education facility was due with EU cash, they can kiss goodbye to that.

In Cornwall, where EU infrastructure is also common and vital, same story, voted heavily Brexit but some there are already saying they still want the money and projects. Also, as in many other other parts of the UK who voted that way, they have very low numbers of immigrants.

How to compound this stupidity further? Thinking a UK government led by people who are the real 'metropolitan elitists' and far less concerned by areas that don't return Tory MP's will somehow pick up the slack on these sort of projects?

Many pages of comments on the article above, did not plough through them all but this one struck me;

MarkNeddy The_Raven 1h ago

10
11
My fellow Citizen of Great Britain.
A PLEA.
I am writing the at 03:10 in the morning on Sunday 26/6. I have had little sleep since Friday's Brexit announcement. I am an 'Essex' man, a Conservative 'wet', and a father. I voted Remain despite my distaste for much of how the EU operates.b
What we know so far:

FACTS...
* The Pound has suffered massive instability - this will have a negative impact on business confidence.
* The FTSE has plummeted, along with the rest of the worlds stock markets. This is important to you and me as our pensions are funded by investments in the stock markets. As an illustration, my workmates pension portfolio lost more on Friday than he earn't in the last 4 years, even after the bounce.
* The people of the world are largely incredulous this has happened. This is reflected in media headlines and news items that are easily found on the Internet. Eg/ "The numbing news that Britain has voted to leave the European Union is the worst step backward for Europe -- and for Western civilization -- since the end of World War II." CNN. This type of reaction has destroyed our standing in the world almost overnight.
* N Korea, ISIS and Russia have reacted with astounded delight.
* Nigel Farage has admitted that the '£350million a week will be spent on the NHS' was 'a mistake'.
* Daniel Hannon - pro-Brexit MEP has admitted that 'of course' freedom of movement will have to remain if we wish to access the EU Open Market.
* Nicola Sturgeon is demanding a vote for Scotland to leave the UK. All predictions are she would win a second referendum. This would create further business uncertainty.
* Michael Gove said 'nobody is interested in the opinions of experts'. All of these opinions are coming true. Factually. Strangely the expert opinions seem to be correct.
* Sinn Fein in N Ireland are also demanding a vote to leave the UK.
* A Labour MP has been shot and killed. To claim this has 'nothing to do' with the campaign is disingenuous. Of course it has.
* Polls show those under 45 were much more likely to vote Remain. Those over 45 were much more likely to vote leave.
* I could go on, however this "Daily Mail article illustrates many of the other practical negatives of what will happen next - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... cover.html.

ANECDOTE
* My sons friend's Father has been given a '7 day layoff' next week while his firm considers whether they are going to invest in a new site he is meant to be moving too. The fact this occurred on Friday is no coincidence.
* A close friend who works at the nearest University was called to an emergency meeting on Friday to plan how (high paying) foreign student numbers would be maintained when world opinion will paint us as 'backward, xenophobic and racist'.
* On Friday, a nice Polish girl in my son's class was spat on, and told to 'F*** off back to where you belong'. She was sent home in tears! Unable to carry on with her day! (sorry - this one really upset me).

OPINION
* We are heading to the largest, deepest, longest recession in UK history. We could have activated a global recession. Everything that has occurred since Friday backs this opinion.
* We were lied to by the Brexit campaigners. Again and again.
* What war or terrorism could not accomplish, Brexit will - the end of the U.K., and the destruction of our economy.

MY PERSONAL OPINION
Nobody in government has a clue what to do next. We are led by pygmies.

PLEASE ACT NOW TO SAVE THE COUNTRY YOU LOVE.
Please write to your MP immediately.This could be via email or letter. State...
* I voted leave. I did this due to my anger over the direction our country was going in.
* However I now realise this was a deep error. I still don't like the EU, but the country is disintegrating before my eyes. To continue down this path would be madness.
* Please lobby for a freeze in any negotiation with the EU to leave.
* Please call a second referendum as soon as practically possible.

<<You can find your MPs contact details here - http://www.parliament.uk/get-involved/contact-your-mp/>>

It may already be too late - what we have done has already tarnished our standing in the world, knocked business confidence, and stirred up unrest and hate in communities. However...not to do anything would be insanity. I fear we will now sleepwalk to oblivion. I'm not being hysterical. This is happening. Can you live with yourself if you do nothing? If only 10% of you who read this act, it will have an impact.

I suspect I will get a huge amount of abuse in the reply section so won't be checking back on the comments. Just think however. Think.

Thank you for reading. I am now going to forward this to my local MP. I'll try and get some sleep now.


You're being pathetic now and a very bad democrat.
 
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pvjin
Posts: 3586
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:52 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:49 am

I seriously don't get what's wrong with modern neoliberals who are willing to give away their country's independence and abandon all values from democracy to freedom of speech in name of economic growth. Pathetic indeed. Europe needs more nationalism and less lying members of the elite and their useful idiots.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:07 pm

pvjin wrote:
Europe needs more nationalism and less lying members of the elite and their useful idiots.


You'll have trouble sorting that apart from each other, though.

Nationalist xenophobic voters are shocked and appalled waking up to the realization that the "elite" predicted correctly what Brexit would actually mean for the country. #Bregret

Their shock and dismay will only deepen when it's beginning to dawn on them that the Brexit propaganda sold them reasons for their decision which actually had little or nothing to do with the EU in the first place but rather with the policies of their domestic government in Westminster.

It's like a high-speed car crash in slow motion, unfortunately with many innocent victims suffering for the drunk driving of some.
 
David_itl
Posts: 6456
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:12 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
You mean to say that people buying into the 350.000 £ a week


There will be a portion (quite large I imagine) who didn't understand the machinations of what would happen. The Leave campaign would have had 2 soundbites that would resonate in people's mind:

1. We will cut immigration
2. The money spent on not being in the EU, around £350 million a week, will help pay towards the NHS.

For 1, there are people who simply associated this with ALL immigration hence the the lunatic fringe now demanding instant deportation of foreigners.
For 2, there are people who simply associate the NHS as being one of the best things about the UK where everyone is able to be treated regardless of their personal situation and that there is a perception that it is being underfunded

Post referendum, what we have found:

1, What the Leave campaign was all about was to have the free trade agreement with the EU together with the freedom of movement of labour within the EU. So immigration may still have continued to rise and not fall
2. The pledge of money towards the NHS was a "mistake" and it would be down to the government of the day to allocate the money in any direction it sees fit
3. The actual amount of money that is handed to the EU as part of the membership of it is nowhere near the £350 million a week. That figure relates to what the UK would actually pay - roughly £18 billion a year. The UK gets a £5 billion rebate which is immediately taken off the £18 billion. And from the remaining £13 billion, some £4.5 billion to £5 billion is given back by the EU to the UK to help part fund projects. So we have at best some £8.5 billion that flows to the UK or some £150 million a week.

As such, these are material facts that may well have turned the mind of some wavering voters into voting to Leave. I wonder how they feel being after being duped.

As for the remaining 27 countries, I look forward to seeing comments welcoming the idea that to help fund the EU's projects across the community, each country's contribution will take a nice hike now that there's going to be a £13 billion to £18 billion shortfall when the UK leaves . And by that I mean those countries who are net payers into the community having to practically stump up all the money knowing full well they will only receive a portion of it back.
 
GDB
Posts: 14396
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:20 pm

LSZH34 wrote:
[
You're being pathetic now and a very bad democrat.


How so? Me or that contributor's comments I linked.
I don't think his 'write to your MP' will do anything, nor will the 2 million+ petition.
At no point did I say the result could be/should be ignored.

What I do say is that many voted Brexit based on outright, easily provable lies which even leading Brexit campaigners have admitted (well calling a lie a 'mistake') within 24 hours of the result.
Not very democratic is it? Saying one thing for weeks and swatting it away within hours.

I knew Farage was a lying, racist turd for years, that the leading Brexit Tories have agendas (which some have put in print) that a great majority of the UK voters would never accept.
But now they are much closer to power thanks to many of those voters.

Myself, I will not likely be affected in any serious way that I can see right now by all of this but millions will and while I feel desperately sorry for those who did not get fooled by these charlatans, to the rest I, accept their democratic choice but also ask them to suck it up and not going around finding some other scapegoat than 'bloody immigrants'.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:20 pm

RobK wrote:
You do realise that the parliament petition that you've linked to is a hack and not legit in the slightest? Perhaps you should look at the JSON data for the signatures and then explain to me why 26,000 votes are from North Korea, 2,000 votes are from The Vatican (which has a population of roughly 1,000), 2,800 votes from the Antarctic, etc etc.

Absolutely every major online petition has some bot-generated chaff., and this one is no exception. The amounts you've quoted sound pretty normal for a high-profile petition such as this, actually.

Anyway, as I have already said the Cameron government is practically certain to reject this petition after they have worked so hard to create the situation in the first place, so the damage is simply done.

Whether a last-ditch parliamentary revolt would change anything is dubious as well. The misinformed xenophobes have yanked the UK off the tracks, so the crash is unfolding by sheer force of momentum now.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 14753
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:26 pm

North Korea tried autarky, didn't work out too well.
 
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RobK
Posts: 4047
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:43 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:33 pm

Klaus wrote:
RobK wrote:
You do realise that the parliament petition that you've linked to is a hack and not legit in the slightest? Perhaps you should look at the JSON data for the signatures and then explain to me why 26,000 votes are from North Korea, 2,000 votes are from The Vatican (which has a population of roughly 1,000), 2,800 votes from the Antarctic, etc etc.

Absolutely every major online petition has some bot-generated chaff., and this one is no exception. The amounts you've quoted sound pretty normal for a high-profile petition such as this, actually.


Right. 100,000 individual manually made signatures submitted between 2 and 3 am "sounds pretty normal"? Sorry chap, but you've just lost any credibility you may have had in this thread and I would like to ask you to leave the discussion so that it can be continued by people that actually possess some intelligence.

And just for your info, the hack has since been picked up and reported by one of the UK tabloids.
 
GDB
Posts: 14396
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:42 pm

To expand on the link I posted further up, this one, to speak in the lingo of it seems many Brexit voters, is not from some 'Metropolitan Elitist' but someone from the area concerned;

https://eatseehearcardiff.wordpress.com ... xit-beast/

Meanwhile, leading Brexit campaigner Lord Lawson (former Chancellor and father of Nigella), goes back to his French castle, Rupert Murdoch stays happily in the US, maybe even Michael Gove even asks his Dad why he never told him that it wasn't in fact the EU that that caused him to sell his fisheries business - or maybe he did and Gove Junior was telling yet another outright lie?
 
Chaostheory
Posts: 1184
Joined: Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:09 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:45 pm

Dreadnought wrote:
Voting to "Leave" meant taking and accepting some risk, and people don't do that unless they have informed opinions about it. The principles of sovereignty and self-determination are important in Britain, going back to the Magna Carta. That's worth some discomfort.


I doubt many from the working class ethnic minorities would know what the magna carta was about. Take a look at the referendum results from the likes of Walsall, Dudley, Blackburn and Darwen, Burnley etc where those of non-white heritage are the majority. There too you will often find 60%+ of the vote going to LEAVE. Remember, these voters (Pakistani) are traditionally Labour voters.

The fact of the matter is for most working class Brits who voted leave, they swallowed the immigration propaganda and allowed themselves to be swayed by the scaremongering.
 
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Dreadnought
Posts: 10201
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:13 pm

Chaostheory wrote:
I doubt many from the working class ethnic minorities would know what the magna carta was about. Take a look at the referendum results from the likes of Walsall, Dudley, Blackburn and Darwen, Burnley etc where those of non-white heritage are the majority. There too you will often find 60%+ of the vote going to LEAVE. Remember, these voters (Pakistani) are traditionally Labour voters.

The fact of the matter is for most working class Brits who voted leave, they swallowed the immigration propaganda and allowed themselves to be swayed by the scaremongering.


I know you like to think so. Telling yourself (and everyone around you) that those who disagree with you are motivated by "hate" and "xenophobia" is a way of deluding yourselves. The invocation of these terms has become a way of dismissing opponents by suggesting that their beliefs are beyond the reach of reason. You can’t debate someone who hates, because hatred precludes thought; it’s in the bones. If your opponents are motivated by hate, then they are not legitimate political actors, because political life cannot be predicated on irrationality - relieving you of any responsibility to debate honestly based on ideas and reason yourself. The anti-Brexit crowd simply cannot acknowledge that those who voted to leave may have done so out of legitimate concerns about sovereignty or economic opportunity or security - that is, that they may have drawn rational conclusions and voted accordingly.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 10384
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:31 pm

The Leave voters have decided to take the future of their country in their own hands again. Now this might turn out to be painful, but imho it is always worth it.
 
Scorpio
Posts: 5052
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2001 3:48 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:37 pm

RobK wrote:
And just for your info, the hack has since been picked up and reported by one of the UK tabloids.


And the petition numbers have just been adjusted by deducting about 80,000. That's more than likely the hacked signatures taken out. So now instead of having about 3,250,000 signatures, they've got about 3,170,000. Yeah that'll make the difference :roll:

Right. 100,000 individual manually made signatures submitted between 2 and 3 am "sounds pretty normal"?

Where are you getting this number from? I checked the number at 1am local time (midnight UK time) and it was at 2,650,000. I checked again when I got up at around 7:30 (6:30 UK time) and it was at about 2,800,000. That's 150,000 signatures in 6,5 hours. Not at all unreasonable if you compare it to the rate they were coming in at during the day, and consider this was a Saturday night. So either your 100,000 number is wrong, or the fraudulent ones among them had already been taken out again by early morning when I checked.
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:43 pm

scbriml wrote:
The two-year clock starts ticking as soon as the UK Government officially notifies the EC of it's intent to invoke Article 50.

The UK remains a member of the EU until the two year period is completed or sooner if agreements are in place. Only at that point, to use your analogy, are we divorced.


You are right : I typed too fast : It's only after the two year period , the divorce being agreed to, that both parties will have to start the negs for trade partnership...
It will be interesting.
In the mean time, as Britain has absolutely no agreement with anyone ( except the commonwealth countries ? ) as all the trade agreements were / have been negociated by the EU, they will have to start talks with just about everybody ( the US, China, India, ....). If I were a young studehnt, I'd chose to get a career with the Foreign Office with a PhD in economics... I'd make a bomb of a salary !

BTW, Mr Brimlley, you have my apologies for the rather aggressive tone of some of my posts. T'was uncalled for, and certainly unfair to you.

Regards
 
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Aesma
Posts: 14753
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: EU referendum today

Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:04 pm

It's more than likely that the immigration talk convinced mostly white people rather than immigrants.

Now the economic situation of many certainly played a role, for the lower middle class, unemployed, and that includes lots of immigrants, however if they have voted leave they have voted against their interests, at least as long as Tories elitists are in power.
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