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incitatus
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Poll on United Ireland....??????

Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:07 am

I just read about that! Hard to believe a unified Ireland is a potential outcome. It used to be that small events in Britain had far reaching consequences across its Empire. Now united Ireland is in the cards and it is Assad's fault!
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Sat Jun 25, 2016 6:35 am

incitatus wrote:
I just read about that! Hard to believe a unified Ireland is a potential outcome. It used to be that small events in Britain had far reaching consequences across its Empire. Now united Ireland is in the cards and it is Assad's fault!


No it's not. I don't believe Sinn Fein will seriously push for a poll, as they know it would be defeated.

I would be more concerned about the peace process in Northern Ireland. The re-introduction of any physical border between the North and the Republic would be an obvious target for disaffected nationalists, who are well-used to travelling freely between the two countries. They are likely to feel even more alienated with the Republic now that the UK is going down the independence route, which isn't going to go down well in their heartland.

Nobody knows what will happen next, but I can't see ANYTHING positive for Northern Ireland in this referendum result.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:02 am

If Scotland go again for independence and get it then chances are NI will also especially if the UK struggles after Brexit.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:14 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
I would be more concerned about the peace process in Northern Ireland. The re-introduction of any physical border between the North and the Republic would be an obvious target for disaffected nationalists, who are well-used to travelling freely between the two countries. They are likely to feel even more alienated with the Republic now that the UK is going down the independence route, which isn't going to go down well in their heartland.


Well, in theory, Ireland is not participating in the Schengen area so if you're an EU national from France or Spain or Germany and take a trip to Ireland, you still have to go through the whole process of immigration before you can cross over to the UK (or vice versa). So even if the UK stops being a member of the EU, it can retain an open border with Ireland...wouldn't it?

However, if Ireland decides to enter Schengen on the same day the UK exits, then I can see the need for border control as Ireland would then enter under the EU's full immigration control.

Or am I misunderstanding this?
 
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PacificBeach88
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:32 pm

Never in my life did I think Ireland and Northern Ireland would find peace. Now I can honestly foresee a reunified Ireland/Northern Ireland over this Brexit nonsense. I also see Scotland leaving the UK too and using the Euro as their currency.

Also, why keep the Commonwealth of Nations now either?
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:10 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
So even if the UK stops being a member of the EU, it can retain an open border with Ireland...wouldn't it?

However, if Ireland decides to enter Schengen on the same day the UK exits, then I can see the need for border control as Ireland would then enter under the EU's full immigration control.


The Irish Government would like that, but it all comes down to the UK's position outside the EU. One of the reasons for Brexit is to control immigration, and if there is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, people can move freely between the two jurisdictions. Which means any EU citizen can simply book a flight to the Republic and then travel over the border to enter the UK. The UK could instead introduce passport checks between Northern Ireland and the UK, but that would be like introducing passport control between two US states, and would prove politically difficult, if not impossible to do.

And the Republic won't enter the Schengen area, as that would definitely result in border controls between the North and Republic, which would be political suicide for any Irish government.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:34 am

Braybuddy wrote:

The Irish Government would like that, but it all comes down to the UK's position outside the EU. One of the reasons for Brexit is to control immigration, and if there is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, people can move freely between the two jurisdictions. Which means any EU citizen can simply book a flight to the Republic and then travel over the border to enter the UK. The UK could instead introduce passport checks between Northern Ireland and the UK, but that would be like introducing passport control between two US states, and would prove politically difficult, if not impossible to do.

And the Republic won't enter the Schengen area, as that would definitely result in border controls between the North and Republic, which would be political suicide for any Irish government.

I guess I'm having trouble understanding. Again, because Ireland is not part of Schengen but has an open border with the UK anyone traveling to Ireland to enter the UK still has to go through the common immigration scheme that both countries have (essentially, there is no freedom of movement even for EU members). If the UK departs the EU and Ireland forgoes Schengen, they could still retain their own open border agreement, but it would mean that if you entered through Ireland, you'd have to exit through Ireland. And then, if you were to use a service in the UK, you'd have to show proof of how you arrived (meaning that if you used Ireland as a loophole, it won't count and you'd be denied services).

I find the current agreement is no different than what could happen in the future. The only exception is that the UK is now an external country that shares a border with the EU...but because Ireland is like the UK in that it still checks passports from even EU nationals, it would be an open border between an EU country and a former EU country while not falling subject to Brussels's criteria.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:56 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
I guess I'm having trouble understanding. Again, because Ireland is not part of Schengen but has an open border with the UK anyone traveling to Ireland to enter the UK still has to go through the common immigration scheme that both countries have (essentially, there is no freedom of movement even for EU members). If the UK departs the EU and Ireland forgoes Schengen, they could still retain their own open border agreement, but it would mean that if you entered through Ireland, you'd have to exit through Ireland. And then, if you were to use a service in the UK, you'd have to show proof of how you arrived (meaning that if you used Ireland as a loophole, it won't count and you'd be denied services).


But there IS freedom of movement: Schengen simply removes passport and border controls. Any EU citizen with a valid EU passport is free to travel to Ireland, even though we are outside Schengen. If the UK wants to control immigration, they will have to introduce border controls between the two jurisdictions, otherwise any EU citizen can travel to Ireland and simply walk over the border. A physical border would be difficult to patrol, so there is talk of introducing passport controls between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which would cause its own problems. It would be like introducing passport controls between states in the US.

What you say about providing proof of entry into the UK could be one way of denying people services, but it won't stop people travelling and working illegally. One of the reasons for Brexit was to control immigration, and to do that they need full border control.
 
AAPilot
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:00 pm

Without England and Wales both Scotland and northern Ireland are nothing but poor unsustainable nations! It would be the same if Mississippi left the US.
 
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zckls04
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Tue Jun 28, 2016 4:28 am

AAPilot wrote:
Without England and Wales both Scotland and northern Ireland are nothing but poor unsustainable nations! It would be the same if Mississippi left the US.


That's true of Northern Ireland, but not really true of Scotland. GDP-wise they're on a par with the Republic of Ireland, which you'd hardly call a poor unsustainable nation. Even Northern Ireland would rank comfortably in the top half of independent nations of the world GDP-wise.
 
PhilBy
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:49 am

The attachment of NI to Britain is ludicrous. It would be logical to reunite the island.

If this happened would England, Scotland and Wales retain the title UK or would it just be Great Britain?
 
Olddog
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:20 am

Just "Was Once a Great Britain" as title :D
 
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scbriml
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:34 am

PhilBy wrote:
The attachment of NI to Britain is ludicrous. It would be logical to reunite the island.


The people who live there disagree with you and even leaving the EU will be very unlikely to change their minds. It's their choice, not yours nor RoI.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:42 am

scbriml wrote:
PhilBy wrote:
The attachment of NI to Britain is ludicrous. It would be logical to reunite the island.


The people who live there disagree with you and even leaving the EU will be very unlikely to change their minds. It's their choice, not yours nor RoI.


I am not sure if the catholics in NI are so 200% UK citizens, and i think by now they are the majority of the population. And a simple majority is enough to leave the UK as per 1998 (iirc) peace treaty.

best regards
Thomas
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:53 am

tommy1808 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
PhilBy wrote:
The attachment of NI to Britain is ludicrous. It would be logical to reunite the island.


The people who live there disagree with you and even leaving the EU will be very unlikely to change their minds. It's their choice, not yours nor RoI.


I am not sure if the catholics in NI are so 200% UK citizens, and i think by now they are the majority of the population. And a simple majority is enough to leave the UK as per 1998 (iirc) peace treaty.

best regards
Thomas


According to the 2011 census, Catholics make-up just over 40 per cent of the population. Catholics are not going to automatically vote for a united Ireland: a lot of them are happy with the status quo. If there were a referendum tomorrow on reuniting with the republic, it would fail. Even Sinn Fein, who are proposing a poll, know this.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Poll on United Ireland....??????

Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:23 am

tommy1808 wrote:
I am not sure if the catholics in NI are so 200% UK citizens, and i think by now they are the majority of the population. And a simple majority is enough to leave the UK as per 1998 (iirc) peace treaty.


The latest figures I could find (from 2011) show 40% of the NI population as being Catholic. However, the decision to remain part of the UK or join RoI does not fall exactly along religious lines, with 25% of NI Catholics voting to stay in the UK last time.

Obviously, a lot has changed since the last NI referendum in 1973, but other than Sinn Fein seeking to make political gain from the EU Referendum result, there hasn't been much noise about it that I've seen.

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