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Olddog
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:20 pm

Anyway, I heard this morning (On Bloomberg TV I think), JP Morgan CEO asking to find a way to cancel Brexit :shock:

I am sure we are not done laughing with that story :D
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:38 pm

Olddog wrote:
I am sure we are not done laughing with that story :D


Monty Python wasn´t comedy, it is a political documentary. :mrgreen:

best regards
Thomas
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scbriml
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:12 pm

Aesma wrote:
Then you have the problem of the countless UK citizens currently living in the EU...


It's not a problem if a simple reciprocal agreement can be reached. EU nationals living in the UK prior to the UK leaving the EU can continue to do so as long as the same is true for UK nationals living in EU countries. Even BoJo said something to this effect the day after the referendum.

I've not heard a single UK politician suggest all EU nationals will be repatriated the day the UK leaves the EU. It might be the view of a few extreme racists, but it's certainly not the view of the vast majority of normal, decent Brits.
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OA260
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Thu Jul 07, 2016 6:33 pm

I think there will be a tightening of the rules in terms of reciprocal benefits and amount of time you have to get a job etc.. ie: If you are in the UK for 6 months and no job then you will have to return to your country of origin. That applies for Brits in other EU countries also. Maybe have a system where you have to work and pay 3-4 years of tax contributions before you are entitled to any non emergency state assistance. There will never be this mass deportation of EU citizens as some have suggested. Also there is no way they would be able to do it on the Island of Ireland. The IRA would be back overnight bombing British soldiers at the border. ( if it were to come back up ). The UK-Ireland have seperate agreements anyway ( CTA) so those would need to be maintained and the EU know that. If not the peace process would collapse.
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Thu Jul 07, 2016 6:52 pm

scbriml wrote:
It's not a problem if a simple reciprocal agreement can be reached. EU nationals living in the UK prior to the UK leaving the EU can continue to do so as long as the same is true for UK nationals living in EU countries.

I've not heard a single UK politician suggest all EU nationals will be repatriated the day the UK leaves the EU. It might be the view of a few extreme racists, but it's certainly not the view of the vast majority of normal, decent Brits.


I don't even think an agreement is necessary. If you have current permission to work or reside someplace, there is no reason to change anything unless the host country actively revokes that permission.

Remember, free trade and free movement are the defaults for the relationships between any two countries, unless one or both governments act positively to restrict them by requiring tariffs, permits etc.

The path forward for the UK, I expect, would be to: 1) seek tariff-free trade agreement with the EU. This is actually advantageous to the EU due to it's trade surplus with the UK. And no stupid requirements to match EU legislation or regulations, apart from basic things like ensuring that Jaguars sold in the EU meet EU safety and pollution standards.

2) Return to the standard means of controlling immigration used by pretty much every country in the world. If you want to move to the UK, you (or your employer) need to show that your skills are needed in the UK and cannot with reasonable ease be found already in the UK.
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Pihero
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:50 pm

Dreadnought wrote:
I've not heard a single UK politician suggest all EU nationals will be repatriated the day the UK leaves the EU
And no stupid requirements to match EU legislation or regulations, apart from basic things like ensuring that Jaguars sold in the EU meet EU safety and pollution standards.

1/ Just think of the latest motion by Labour : 350 tory MPs didn't show up... and the British government refuses to guarantee the rights ( ?) of these foreign expats, apparently used as bargaining chips.

2/ * Stupid requirements * maybe in your views, but it is very important to us in France ( in paarticular )... and frankly, between a *Brussels bureaucrat* and a car manufacturer from India or Japan... which one should I trust to protect my health and my safety ? ( Even Germans, come to think of it, ref VW tests ).
Most of these stupid requirements - bar the lies of some bozo - are protecting my rights to safety / health / environment.
If you do not like them, you are quite free to seek other alternatives, the way thbe TTIP negotiations seem to be going down the drain.
But I'm afraid that all these blusterings assertions about the UK getting everything it wants from a very sympathetic Union are going to be painfully dismissed.

The thread has gone astray : the PM posted a question : Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future ?
We'd seen stranger happenings, but I do not believe it, if they really are serious about quitting ( which seems to me less and less likely !), but if it did, it will be on quite different terms than they benefit today : No more opt outs / no more rebates / probably no more £, as London would have lost most of the passporting cum € dealings ... etc...
I read on some newspaper that the Brits could give up all the passporting rights of the Londonb Banking sector in exchange for some degree of control on EU migration... That scheme would please the public...

As for the Scottish question :
joining the EU is for sovereign states, not regions.
So, Scotland needs to be independent from the UK.
Then, there will be a question about criteria for their candidature
Then they'll have to consider the monetary situation : It cannot join the ERM with the £, which will then be a non- EU currency : one cannot join with one's money pegged to anything than a EU- approved currency.
Would there be some opposition ? Difficult to say, probably from Spain and not much else, IMO.

As a final comment, most of the arguments on this forum have been about trade and tariffs... which is EXACTLY where the EU was heading through British influence.
...But to many of us on the continent, the European Community has always been more, a lot more : the lasrt rampart of western European civilisation, at last reunited and with , again at last, a voice to be heard on the world... What the Brits never saw was that, although still very far from ideal, the EU had brought tremendous changes in the continent : democracy, especially, to countries which had never seen it for near a century.
Instead, they only envisaged a free trade zone ( the reason why De Gaulle vetoed their membership twice and they had to wait for his death before been accepted )
So, you see, the pettiness of a group of dishonest politicians intent on regaining some control over the masses does not interest me. At all. What I find sad is people they lied to beginning to wake up to broken promises and quite a few losses.
There are symbols that most people have missed : after the vote, who do you think started the first meeting in a Euro reaction?
- The six founders : Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.
To me, it looks very much like another progress toward a better EU has been launched... and this time, the UK won't be an obstacle any more. I'd say Hooray ! to that.
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prebennorholm
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:57 pm

Aesma wrote:
Then you have the problem of the countless UK citizens currently living in the EU...

No problem. Here in Denmark that problem was largely solved last spring even before the Brexit referendum.

Due to fear of a "Leave" result UK citizens living here sought Danish citizenship and got it in droves. And those who didn't will have plenty of time to do it.

Not that it would be much of a "problem" to stay British, but they save the hazzle to seek and renew work permit and such.

Also borrowing money to buy a house is easier when you have an EU passport. Since debt management is also governed by common EU rules, then it is more complicated and more expensive for non-EU citizens to borrow.
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Klaus
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:34 pm

[code][/code]
Dreadnought wrote:
I don't even think an agreement is necessary. If you have current permission to work or reside someplace, there is no reason to change anything unless the host country actively revokes that permission.

Remember, free trade and free movement are the defaults for the relationships between any two countries, unless one or both governments act positively to restrict them by requiring tariffs, permits etc.


You're mistaken on both counts.

It is actually the EU treaties which determine both areas, and when Britain activates article 50, all effects of those EU treaties will be on a two-year timeout.

If that clock is run down without reaching a new agreement, work and residence, even just tourism will automatically revert to full visa requirements as between all countries which have no explicit agreements.

Similarly, Britain's trade relationship to the EU will cease to exist and the very basic WTO terms will automatically kick in, including significant tariffs and restrictions on a plethora of goods and services.

The path forward for the UK, I expect, would be to: 1) seek tariff-free trade agreement with the EU. This is actually advantageous to the EU due to it's trade surplus with the UK.


That presumable advantage is negligible compared to the disruption this would cause if it dragged all the complications of extra-EU trade in with it.

Especially since that trade would not just vanish even under basic WTO rules because Britain doesn't have many alternatives there. The disadvantages for Britain would be much more severe if they didn't agree to EU terms.

And no stupid requirements to match EU legislation or regulations, apart from basic things like ensuring that Jaguars sold in the EU meet EU safety and pollution standards.


That is delusional on pretty much every level, and that is the problem the brexiteers now face.

In reality the terms of access to the common market have been standing for a long time already, and for good reason. Both Switzerland and Britain basically get the choice between no access and then being as xenophobic and irrational as they want, and access to the common market inclusing all the four freedoms which are required to keep the common market actually functioning.
 
Klaus
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
If the UK were to rejoin the EU at some point in the future (I'm struggling to see why it would happen), they'd get none of the perks they currently enjoy.


The answer to that is what the situation of Britain alone on its own will actually be in real life.

Maybe it will be what the brexiteers had promised all along; But why, then, have none of them been able to present any plausible, practical plans about that imagined brilliant future outside of the EU?

The negative consequences are building up as we speak, and they are pretty much along the lines of the expected. If no actual positives begin to materialize, It gets harder and harder to see why any even just semi-responsible british government would not pull the emergency brakes to avert an increasingly likely decline and deepening crisis.

Yeah, it would take someone with the... ovaries to make such a decision despite earlier declarations and despite the referendum, but where would the real benefit be in realizing a severe mistake and still not doing a thing to avert it?
 
bhill
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:40 pm

This is sooo funny to watch....almost as if the majority in the US went on a bender, voted, woke up the next morning with a shit of a hang over, and....

Trump is the President!!
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FabDiva
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sat Jul 16, 2016 9:51 pm

It would be funny if it wasn't for the fact I live here! My family just lapped up the Brexit propaganda, apparently their daughter's future being much more difficult (and with Thereasa May as PM even more so) is a price worth paying for "Getting their country back from Merkel and Juncker"
 
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sat Jul 16, 2016 10:14 pm

There's also the other side, the Lexiteers. Left Wing Exiters.

It's not just a soft right versus batshit crazy right wingers battle. There is a sizeable chunk of voters on the left who were not at all happy with what they perceived as a corrupt and undemocratic EU. Even towns in Wales like Ebbw Vale that have been bathing in a bath of EU grant money of late went for Brexit. Certainly not traditional Tory voters.

If Britain was to reconsider and move back towards membership, it would take some significant change at the EU. No more people like Juncker and his Anglophobia. Much more democracy, and definitely the dismantling of the undemocratic European Bank into something that works for individual states. The Euro is a flop and it's time it was put humanely to death.
 
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bombayduck
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sat Jul 16, 2016 11:15 pm

In answer to your question, it is no. Once we are out that's it. The rest of the EU would make sure that we suffered with higher prices on all goods imported into the U.K if we tried to rejoin. Plus probably having to pay more into the E.U coffers.
 
BestWestern
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:24 am

As it seems that UK government doesn't want to be in the common market, all non nationals will probably need work permits to work / live in the UK, and vice versa, in the same way a non EU national needs today.

It will place a huge burden on the lesser skilled worker in hotels, cafes, etc who do not have the support of their company. Imagine Costa having to apply for a work permit for all of their foreign cafe staff?

I pity those in Gibraltar and southern Andalucia - the volume of workers crossing that border in each direction every day.
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Aesma
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:35 am

Channex757 wrote:
There's also the other side, the Lexiteers. Left Wing Exiters.

It's not just a soft right versus batshit crazy right wingers battle. There is a sizeable chunk of voters on the left who were not at all happy with what they perceived as a corrupt and undemocratic EU. Even towns in Wales like Ebbw Vale that have been bathing in a bath of EU grant money of late went for Brexit. Certainly not traditional Tory voters.

If Britain was to reconsider and move back towards membership, it would take some significant change at the EU. No more people like Juncker and his Anglophobia. Much more democracy, and definitely the dismantling of the undemocratic European Bank into something that works for individual states. The Euro is a flop and it's time it was put humanely to death.


Most governments in the EU are right-wing, so EU policies are right-wing. Isn't that democracy in action ?
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Pihero
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:47 am

Channex757 wrote:
If Britain was to reconsider and move back towards membership, it would take some significant change at the EU. No more people like Juncker and his Anglophobia. Much more democracy, and definitely the dismantling of the undemocratic European Bank into something that works for individual states. The Euro is a flop and it's time it was put humanely to death.


1/- To think that Britain could dictate anything to the EU for it to re-join is another dream. Let's face it, once Article 50 is triggered, you're out of every medium-to-long term EU plan : that's about research grants ( it has already started ), Erasmus, basically everything that has an impact post 2019...

2/- Just for the sake of a discussion, instead of regurgitating all the anti-EU bias that have been served in the UK for the past forty ytears, please tell us why the EU is not democratic ( especially compared to Britain ), and why Juncker is anglophobic, as I find it quite rich that the people who heaped loads of shite on the EU are exactly those complaining of anti-anglo bias.
You'd also have to explain - without making us laugh - how come the brexit minister is suing - at the European Court of Justice - policies of the then Home secretary Theresa May.

3/- I hope one day you' ll realise that as a matter of fact the EU was right on the tracks that the UK had wished and succeeded in implementing. You had it taylor-made just for you ( apart from the 350 gazillions pounds you were spending every second :roll: )... To think that you could have it back ? Dream on.

4/- As for the € a flop, just ask the money changers how many of them a £ note would buy. Try the airports, especially ! Not a lot of substance, hey ?
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 12:12 pm

For the purposes of this debate, I am a staunch Remainer and voted that way. Just thought you'd like to know that....
 
Pihero
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 1:18 pm

Channex757 wrote:
For the purposes of this debate, I am a staunch Remainer and voted that way. Just thought you'd like to know that....

Wow !
If you were amongst the least sceptic Brits, I'm beginning to understand the venom of the campaign !
And btw, no response to my queries about democracy, Juncker's anti Brit...is there ?
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 1:41 pm

Not really because I was indicating what seems to be the current British feeling. As a Remainer I don't really buy into any of the hyperbole. My feelings about the Euro are separate as I don't believe it is working as planned, and maybe there is some traction in the "two-Euro" idea of having a pair of currencies for the North and South.

Juncker is being seen as an obstacle to a clean Brexit at the moment, there has even been a suggestion in the press that Merkel wants him moved aside and a more pragmatist leader in his place. Whether that's true or not I neither know nor care. He's just one player in a whole cast of actors in this drama.
 
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OA260
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:19 pm

Channex757 wrote:

Juncker is being seen as an obstacle to a clean Brexit at the moment, there has even been a suggestion in the press that Merkel wants him moved aside and a more pragmatist leader in his place. Whether that's true or not I neither know nor care. He's just one player in a whole cast of actors in this drama.


Pretty much so do not rule him being pushed out either. The main powers that be want a clean and reasonable deal for Brexit and that is what is best for both sides as I already pointed out. Better to have a deal which is a win/win than a deal which is loose/loose. Both sides have bargaining chips on their side and that will be the thing that determines just what is hammered out at the table. In the end I think we will end up somewhere in the middle. Quotas for work permits and a deal for those that are already established in the UK and for UK citizens in other EU countries.

I think the EU also underestimate the headache of the Irish border. Also Irish Citizenship and by default EU rights apply to British citizens born in Northern Ireland even after Brexit.

'' If you were born in Ireland prior to 1 January 2005 then you are entitled to be an Irish citizen. If you were born on or after 1 January 2005 and one of your parents was an Irish or British citizen, or if either of your parents was entitled to reside in the State or Northern Ireland without any restrictions on his or her residence, then you have an entitlement to Irish citizenship.''

So a deal will be done because anything else would be impossible to deal with on both sides.
 
Olddog
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:39 pm

You want a deal that will undermine deadly EU and you think that is a win win deal ? You really need a reality check. UK in the EU with the EU as support was important. Uk alone competing with the other powers is a dwarf that pretend to be a XIX century giant.
 
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OA260
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:45 pm

Olddog wrote:
You want a deal that will undermine deadly EU and you think that is a win win deal ? You really need a reality check. UK in the EU with the EU as support was important. Uk alone competing with the other powers is a dwarf that pretend to be a XIX century giant.


The UK and the EU will do a deal that is the reality. You do not know what other deals will be done with non EU nations neither do I. Nobody knows what will happen going forward not even the best of ''experts''. Deadly EU ? You old drama queen ;)
 
Olddog
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:49 pm

But we know the reality. No freedom of movement no deal. I know that your press is telling you that UK is so important that EU will agree with UK position. I'll say Dream on !
 
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OA260
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 7:13 pm

Olddog wrote:
But we know the reality. No freedom of movement no deal. I know that your press is telling you that UK is so important that EU will agree with UK position. I'll say Dream on !


My press? Im in Ireland lol... They are certainly not telling us that ;) Wont/cant/impossible now how many times have I heard that over the years when it comes to negotiations. If you know anything about deadlines and red lines then you will know often both sides start far apart and usually meet somewhere in the middle and this is what will most likely happen.
 
Pihero
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 7:45 pm

Channex757 wrote:
Juncker is being seen as an obstacle to a clean Brexit at the moment, there has even been a suggestion in the press that Merkel wants him moved aside and a more pragmatist leader in his place.


OA260 wrote:
Pretty much so do not rule him being pushed out either. The main powers that be want a clean and reasonable deal for Brexit and that is what is best for both sides.

I can't believe that after months of campaigning and three weeks after the referendum one could still write such patent untruths.
The president of the EU cannot be dismissed by anybody, be it the German Chancellor, the French president.. the Italian Prime Minister....etc....
He / she has been nominated by the Council just about the same way as a Brit prime minister, is responsible to the European Parliament and ultimately, the only way to remove him / her would be through an act of the ECJ... it has to be something really serious...

I see a lot of theories about the next relations between the UK and the EU :
Everything is in fact quite a lot simpler than one would think :
- There are only a few models :
1/- The Norway model : you pay / you allow movements / you have no control. In exchange, you have access to the single market . The movement bit is the reason the UK left so I don't see this model applied.
2/- The Swiss model : 210 trade agreements . The model is even more constraining than the Norway one. At the moment, Switzerland is running the risk of being ousted from all its agreements after the rejection of freedom of movement in 2014. There is quite a lot of Swiss internal legal wrangling in this case. In the mean time, Switzerland has no part any more with Erasmus and the research grants especially those for Horizon 2020.I have a feeling that the 2014 referendum is going to be quietly pushed under a rug.
3/- The Canada,or Turkey, or South Korea, or Singapore or Hong Kong , or plain WTO models.
Anything is possible but only the first two - IF associated with free movements - would allow the UK to keep / export financial services to the EU. Please note that those services are now the bulk of Britain's export. The next move of the UK brexiteer government will be vital for the existence of the City of London.

To think that Britain could obtain"free" access to the single market is another " Dream on" scenario. Britain will not, outside the EU have similar - or better - rights than the EU members.
And if the UK had such a commanbing advantage in trade negotiations, why haven't it implemented Article 50.
At the moment, it looks like everybody is on panic stations and they try and politically maneuver everybody else into delaying tactics ( see for instance the way they try to force Mrs Sturgeon into decidein all by herself on the date of A.50 trigger ).
A very courageous attitude, I may say.

Interesting times...
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 8:28 pm

I really think you need to calm down Pihero.

Juncker is being obstructionist. Probably because he still has a grudge against Cameron trying to block his appointment. Oh well, never mind. If necessary he can be bypassed.

Remember the Golden Rule. He who has the gold, writes the rules. That is Britain, Germany and France. Between those three nations there will be a compromise position allowing France and Germany to trade with the United Kingdom and vice versa.

If this simple statement of facts makes you froth uncontrollably and accuse people of lying, then you need a stiff drink and a lie down. Money talks. Money will decide what happens, not some pipsqueak appointee politician from a tiny country with no economic clout.
 
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OA260
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 8:49 pm

Channex757 wrote:
I really think you need to calm down Pihero.

Juncker is being obstructionist. Probably because he still has a grudge against Cameron trying to block his appointment. Oh well, never mind. If necessary he can be bypassed.



Got it in one. Juncker is a joke. He reminds me of the former FIFA Sepp Blatter character. They certainly went to the same charm school. ;) Not a huge fan of Merkel but at least you can do a deal with her.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:20 pm

A big issue is going to be the trillions of Euros, pounds and dollars that flow between the big banking concerns of those three nations. Banks lend to each other and many of the UK-based banks will have massive loans made to European banks. This more than anything will drive the next stages of Brexit.

Norway, Iceland and Canada don't have anything like the exposure Britain has to European interbank lending. Even Switzerland isn't a financial centre on a par with Frankfurt, Paris and London.

The Golden Rule will apply.
 
Pihero
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nd poray tgfell why Cameron tried to oppose - unsuccessfulkly, which proves that

Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:33 pm

Channex757 wrote:
I really think you need to calm down Pihero.
Juncker is being obstructionist. Probably because he still has a grudge against Cameron trying to block his appointment.


And pray tell why Cameron tried - unsuccessfully, which proves that the heads of state do not have a lot of power, individually, against the Commission - why he opposed Juncker's nomination.
Could it be that he feared that he wouldn't be as easy to bully / maneuver / bypass as Barroso ?
So, who will remove Juncker ? ( apart from Mickey Mouse, of course ).
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JagRace
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:06 pm

Pihero wrote:
Anything is possible but only the first two - IF associated with free movements - would allow the UK to keep / export financial services to the EU.


Interesting. I would have thought the UK is certain to lose financial passporting. They almost lost it recently but the ECJ said they could keep it despite not being in the Eurozone.

But once they cease to be a full member of the EU, it seems to me highly unlikely the EU * will allow an external country to profit from Euro transactions.

* Bear in mind that the EU in this context means the unanimous agreement of twenty seven countries within two years.
 
Pihero
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:17 pm

Channex757 wrote:

Juncker... If necessary he can be bypassed.
Problem is that he is the President of the EU Commission, and as such, will be responsible for the divorce negociations.
He's already appointed the man in charge of the Article 50 Task Force ( Didier Seeuws ) .
Question : Have Merkel or Hollande appointed anybody else ?

Channex757 wrote:
If this simple statement of facts makes you froth uncontrollably and accuse people of lying, then you need a stiff drink and a lie down. Money talks. Money will decide what happens, not some pipsqueak appointee politician from a tiny country with no economic clout.

When did I accuse you of Lying ?
Of mis - or dis - information, yes. Not lying.

From what you write, I could see with some chuckle that just beneath the veneer of politeness lies somebody not very different from the three brexiteers ( arrogance, insults and not much else ).
Maybe you haven't understood that in fact, that pipsqueak - through his appointment - has as much clout and certainly more respect than the Queen's foreign secretary.
Howzat for euro democracy, for a thought ?

There won't be any special trade deals between any EU countries and Britain... You'll have to deal with the EU Commission. Your idea is pure fantasy.

Apart from that, I'm quite comfortable with a glass - Glencairn glass, of course - of Aberlour single malt scotch... which I'll drink to Mrs Sturgeon's health !
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:04 am

Nope, sorry. You need to go away and get that knot out of your panties Pihero.

I'm a staunch remainer. Campaigned for it, even. My take on it is that we are better off in by a huge margin and it's more effective being a force for change inside the EU than someone sat impotently on the edge.

Incidentally you accused me of deliberately posting misinformation. Telling lies, in other words. Not that I am bothered. I was just trying to explain what many British people feel and you went off like a seventeen year old virgin in a nude cheerleaders dressing room. My personal take is that the Euro is not working and needs to be scrapped. I'm actually in favour of the two-Euro approach where strong economies can collaborate and the growing economies such as Greece, Spain and Portugal can work together with a separate currency. Italy would be up for debate as would the BeNeLux countries. It's been described as a Euro North and Euro South solution.

Hell, if Aldi can do it why not the EU? (That's a joke, pihero. Don't start with the eruptions again)

Britain is a special case because of the intra-EU financial trading and various massive loans done between banks. To brush over that as you seem wont to do is just plain silly. Trillions (yes trillions) of Euros and pounds are traded and lent between major banks and they will have a lot to say on the issue, especially as their continued financial health underpins the European Project.

The Golden Rule, dear chap. Reflect on it before any more of your premature ejaculations.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7129
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:24 am

OA260 wrote:
Both sides have bargaining chips on their side and that will be the thing that determines just what is hammered out at the table. In the end I think we will end up somewhere in the middle.

Yeah, but that assumes that negotiations are on a more or less symmetric basis. What if your annual income tax is calculated to, say, 20k, and you open negotiations with the tax authorities telling how unfair it is that you pay more than 10k. Would you expect to be able to settle on 15k? That's just one (pretty extreme) example of asymmetric negotiations.

OA260 wrote:
think the EU also underestimate the headache of the Irish border.

I'm not sure the EU estimates it at all. It's an Irish/UK issue. Ireland, as an EU member, obeys to EU border rules. UK as a non-EU member not necessarily so.
Hopefully a workable arrangement can be made, but not a "middle-of-the-road" thing which compromises EU borders.
Basically the EU will be telling: "Ireland and UK, settle the issue without violating EU rules, and tell us how you did it after it's done".

OA260 wrote:
So a deal will be done because anything else would be impossible to deal with on both sides.

The EU has been dealing very well with 100+ non-EU countries since it's foundation.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:53 am

There is also a lot of concern over whether the Irish issue will end up with a Scotland-style clamour for another independence vote. Many observers reckon this could be a lot closer than in previous ballots as the population shift and changing attitudes could see Unionists in a minority. Might Northern Ireland secede from the Union and seek to either unite with Ireland or go it alone?

Either way, this Irish issue has the potential to spark off the Troubles again. NI voted for Remain, and that means political pressure might start to build. Where it goes from there, nobody could begin to guess.
 
prebennorholm
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Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:06 am

Channex757 wrote:
Britain is a special case because of the intra-EU financial trading and various massive loans done between banks. To brush over that as you seem wont to do is just plain silly. Trillions (yes trillions) of Euros and pounds are traded and lent between major banks and they will have a lot to say on the issue, especially as their continued financial health underpins the European Project.

Yeah, but that will change. Not overnight, but over time. Nobody can predict how much over one year, five years, or ten years.

It is already changing. It has been changing for six months. That's why your Christmas gift budget 2016 has already shrunk some 10%.

Changes began six months ago as Cameron announced the referendum, due to fear of Brexit. Companies (including banks) in EU27 countries became cautious dealing with the UK, and the pound gradually dropped some 5% over the winter and early spring. And 5% more after the referendum result.

London is becoming less and less of a financial center for the EU as we write here on a.net. Exactly how it will happen - business moving to existing banks on the continent, or UK banks moving to the continent - likely a mixture, and how much of each, that's something we will see. But London will for all EU27 practical things become a "financial village".
Last edited by prebennorholm on Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:18 am

London is also the preeminent global insurance market and Brexit will have unforseen consequences there as well. The whole Brexit farce is one of lies, inability to read the future and principally right wing internal politics with the Conservatives and UKIP.

I am definitely bothered about the Ireland issues. Having been blown up out of a job once by the IRA I'm definitely a huge fan of the Peace Process and anything that disturbs that has potential to plunge the UK and even Ireland back into the Troubles. Brexit has the potential to spark a deterioration if Nationalists and Republicans begin moves to detach Northern Ireland from the post-Brexit UK.
 
Ken777
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Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:33 am

Channex757 wrote:
A big issue is going to be the trillions of Euros, pounds and dollars that flow between the big banking concerns of those three nations. Banks lend to each other and many of the UK-based banks will have massive loans made to European banks. This more than anything will drive the next stages of Brexit.


This is another one of the issues that will drive inform agreements before the filing of Article 50. Critical issues like this, immediate impacts on NATO relationships, major existing agreements (like within Airbus) all demand that informal discussions be held ASAP and finalized before the formal filing.
 
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HGL
Posts: 330
Joined: Sat May 28, 2016 3:25 am

Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:48 am

I know that Brexit is a serious issue but the question of re-joining brought to mind on old song (particularly apt given Brexiters' talk of Hitler and all that):

You put your [left arm] in,
Your [left arm] out:
In, out, in, out.
You shake it all about.
You do the hokey cokey,
And you turn around.
That's what it's all about!

Whoa, hokey cokey, cokey
Whoa, hokey cokey, cokey
Whoa, hokey cokey, cokey
Knees bent arms stretch,
Ra! ra! ra!
;)
Qui omnes despicit, omnibus displicit.
 
blueflyer
Posts: 4352
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:14 am

OA260 wrote:
Wont/cant/impossible now how many times have I heard that over the years when it comes to negotiations.

Funny thing about these negotiations. Who is going to lead them for the UK? The British government has exactly 0 experienced trade negotiators on payroll. British citizens with the necessary experience are in Brussels, working for the EU, and not planning to go home if they can help it. Her majesty's Brexit ministry is already planning to import foreigners to do the job, mostly from Switzerland and Singapore it seems. And I thought immigration was bad...

For an idea of the scope, Canada had 300 negotiators working on its still pending trade agreement with the EU.
 
JJJ
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Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:19 am

BestWestern wrote:
I pity those in Gibraltar and southern Andalucia - the volume of workers crossing that border in each direction every day.


It's more symbolic than anything. We're talking 12K mostly menial jobs which will be felt in the already unemployment ridden Línea, San Roque, etc. but are a drop in the 1 million unemployed bucket in Andalusia.

It will be more of a problem for the estimated 3,5 to 10K commuters. Those who live in Spain (far from the Hong-Kong-esque housing prices) and use Spanish health, education, etc. services but work in Gibraltar.
 
Olddog
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:30 am

Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, recently remarked in an important speech, the British recovery is much more anaemic than widely reported. “So far at least,” he said, “this has been a recovery for the too few rather than the too many, a recovery delivering a little too little rather than far too much.” It has been a jobs rich but pay poor recovery, with half of UK households seeing no increase in their disposable income since 2005 – a lost decade of income. It has been the young and those in the regions who have suffered worst.

Brexit will make all this much worse, but badly handled by the Brexiters catapulted into leading the negotiations, it could morph into a catastrophe. David Davis airily dismissed these risks in an article for ConservativeHome before his appointment. His favoured option was for Britain to trade with the EU under essentially World Trade Organisation rules in a dreamland where there are only benefits and no costs.



From The Guardian today. Bring on WTO trade rules and talk again after some years :mrgreen:
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:10 am

Ken777 wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
A big issue is going to be the trillions of Euros, pounds and dollars that flow between the big banking concerns of those three nations. Banks lend to each other and many of the UK-based banks will have massive loans made to European banks. This more than anything will drive the next stages of Brexit.


This is another one of the issues that will drive inform agreements before the filing of Article 50. Critical issues like this, immediate impacts on NATO relationships, major existing agreements (like within Airbus) all demand that informal discussions be held ASAP and finalized before the formal filing.


Article 50 should be invoked immediately, that way negotiations can start immediately too. It's that simple.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 11:44 am

I wrote earlier :
"When did I accuse you of lying ?
Of mis - or dis - information, yes. Not lying
. "
I apologise as I wrote too quickly. I meant " you were mis - or dis - informed " ( passive )
That said, I do not really know how a 17 year old virgin would react in a dressing room full of pretty nubile girls... I lost it one year before so I'd never been really shy of the naked truth. 8-)

You should - that's just my opinion - get into your parliament channel and watch :
Future Economic Relations with the EU
at the July 5th Commons select committee hearing with Prof M. Dougan,Dr Nibblet ( Royal Institute of Foreign Affairs ), Sir Emyr Jones-Parry and Raoul Ruparel ( Open Europe ).
Not many people in your country have bothered to watch it, which is a pity.
You wouldn't have to write that the UK would get into informal talks before the formal meetings.
You'll get to meet a few people, from Hungary or from Norway... Much more ? i doubt it : The French and the Germans wouldn't go for it and - curioser and curiouser ! - they seem to be in agreement with Juncker's Commission.

*As for the 11 trillion € that are being cleared by the City, I wonder how much will be remaining after the withdrawal agreement has been signed.
That House committee panel seemed to be in agreement that from the moment Article 50 has been triggered, anything in terms of agreements and advantages for the UK will be a "backward step"
BTW, you can cancel all that rigmarole right until the moment you're ready to sign the divorce papers... and the referendum isn't binding in any way ( apparently, one of the advantages of having no written constitution ) :) . Only a parliamentary vote would count.

Question : would anybody have the eggs to do so ?

That would piss me off.
Contrail designer
 
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Channex757
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:22 pm

Answer: Scotland.

There is a legal opinion out there that the consent of the devolved assemblies might be required for any act that materially impinges on their delegated powers and areas of responsibility. The SNP might just grandstand on the issue and refuse consent. Hence plenty of cross-border activity at the moment with Theresa May heading to Edinburgh pretty smartly after being appointed.
 
Olddog
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:55 pm

Last evening, the diner with all Foreign ministers was cancelled so Johnson could not try to pretend that informal negotiations started....

It seems that as UK tries to delay article 50 for their convenience only, some EU states are thinking about triggering article 7, stripping the UK right to vote on europeans matters.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:05 pm

OA260 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
There has to be a referendum or a 3/5 vote of Congress in France for any new country joining the EU. I'd say it would be very difficult for the UK to win this.


Which raises another question about Scotland. They will not be able to remain even if they vote for leaving the UK. Spain pretty much put that idea to bed saying they would not allow it due to their own issues at home with break away regions.


At that time, the context was that Spain did not want to encourage Cataluña to start getting ideas. Spain's policy was that any region that breaks away from its mother country will not be able to join the EU.

I think that if the Scottish government were to go to Spain and discuss these extenuating circumstances, Spain might be willing to make an exception.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
JagRace
Posts: 2
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:22 pm

Olddog wrote:
Last evening, the diner with all Foreign ministers was cancelled so Johnson could not try to pretend that informal negotiations started....

It seems that as UK tries to delay article 50 for their convenience only, some EU states are thinking about triggering article 7, stripping the UK right to vote on europeans matters.


If an EU state thinks the UK is delaying for its own convenience - or worse, in the hopes that delay will destabilise the EU - all that state needs to do is declare their view that the UK is no longer acting in a spirit of cooperation, and publicly announce that that state's policy is that such negotiations as follow Article 50 notification should be for the sole purpose of tying up loose ends and that the EU should not enter any discussions on trade (EEA or otherwise) with the UK until at least five years have elapsed. Given the need for near unanimity in a new deal for the UK, not to mention that it needs to be completed within two years, any one state (France, perhaps?) taking this view is probably enough to ensure that it happens.

Then having tossed that grenade into the market place, sit back and wait for the markets to realise that the UK will probably be out in the cold on WTO rules for a decade at least.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:15 pm

<It seems that as UK tries to delay article 50 for their convenience only, some EU states are thinking about triggering article 7, stripping the UK right <to vote on europeans matters.

Honestly I do not see why. Applying article 7 on Poland or Hungary might be appropriate, but not on the UK. Just being annoying and selfish does not count as an Article 7 infringement.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13995
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Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:31 pm

Ken777 wrote:
[This is another one of the issues that will drive inform agreements before the filing of Article 50. Critical issues like this, immediate impacts on NATO relationships, major existing agreements (like within Airbus) all demand that informal discussions be held ASAP and finalized before the formal filing.


Two years are ample enough to negotiate anything of interest.Airbus won´t care, since the EU tariff for aircraft parts is 0% iirc.

Pihero wrote:
There won't be any special trade deals between any EU countries and Britain... You'll have to deal with the EU Commission. Your idea is pure fantasy.


Can we have the checkmark back?
Why anyone can assume that a leaving UK can get a better deal than all the exceptions they blackmailed into their membership-contract for staying is frankly beyond me.
I think someone should carefully check if the UK leaving the EU doesn´t breach agreements with France and Germany, the ones paying the UK rebate, and they could ask the money back. Five Billion times 30 years, ... as a tax payer i like the idea.
I mean, if my company pays a qualification/certification for me, i also often have to pay that back in parts or full if i leave the company...

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

Re: Can the UK rejoin the EU in the future?

Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:39 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
Applying article 7 on Poland or Hungary might be appropriate, but not on the UK. Just being annoying and selfish does not count as an Article 7 infringement.

You're right , of course but this is where the farce could become even more tragi-comic :
Article 7 could be - I don't say it will - triggered for a violation of... errrr... British democracy : :lol: the people voted... its will should be acted upon, without delay. otherwise it's a violation of one of the most important values of the Union : Democracy is high on that list.
I don't see it happening, though : it could be launched - through EP, the Commission or one third of the Council, but its implementation requires an unanimous vote of the 27 members... something that is still an impossibility for the moment. But should the UK go on pi**ing everybody further off and things could become interesting.
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