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Olddog wrote:I am sure we are not done laughing with that story
Aesma wrote:Then you have the problem of the countless UK citizens currently living in the EU...
scbriml wrote:It's not a problem if a simple reciprocal agreement can be reached. EU nationals living in the UK prior to the UK leaving the EU can continue to do so as long as the same is true for UK nationals living in EU countries.
I've not heard a single UK politician suggest all EU nationals will be repatriated the day the UK leaves the EU. It might be the view of a few extreme racists, but it's certainly not the view of the vast majority of normal, decent Brits.
Dreadnought wrote:I've not heard a single UK politician suggest all EU nationals will be repatriated the day the UK leaves the EU
And no stupid requirements to match EU legislation or regulations, apart from basic things like ensuring that Jaguars sold in the EU meet EU safety and pollution standards.
Aesma wrote:Then you have the problem of the countless UK citizens currently living in the EU...
Dreadnought wrote:I don't even think an agreement is necessary. If you have current permission to work or reside someplace, there is no reason to change anything unless the host country actively revokes that permission.
Remember, free trade and free movement are the defaults for the relationships between any two countries, unless one or both governments act positively to restrict them by requiring tariffs, permits etc.
The path forward for the UK, I expect, would be to: 1) seek tariff-free trade agreement with the EU. This is actually advantageous to the EU due to it's trade surplus with the UK.
And no stupid requirements to match EU legislation or regulations, apart from basic things like ensuring that Jaguars sold in the EU meet EU safety and pollution standards.
scbriml wrote:If the UK were to rejoin the EU at some point in the future (I'm struggling to see why it would happen), they'd get none of the perks they currently enjoy.
Channex757 wrote:There's also the other side, the Lexiteers. Left Wing Exiters.
It's not just a soft right versus batshit crazy right wingers battle. There is a sizeable chunk of voters on the left who were not at all happy with what they perceived as a corrupt and undemocratic EU. Even towns in Wales like Ebbw Vale that have been bathing in a bath of EU grant money of late went for Brexit. Certainly not traditional Tory voters.
If Britain was to reconsider and move back towards membership, it would take some significant change at the EU. No more people like Juncker and his Anglophobia. Much more democracy, and definitely the dismantling of the undemocratic European Bank into something that works for individual states. The Euro is a flop and it's time it was put humanely to death.
Channex757 wrote:If Britain was to reconsider and move back towards membership, it would take some significant change at the EU. No more people like Juncker and his Anglophobia. Much more democracy, and definitely the dismantling of the undemocratic European Bank into something that works for individual states. The Euro is a flop and it's time it was put humanely to death.
Channex757 wrote:For the purposes of this debate, I am a staunch Remainer and voted that way. Just thought you'd like to know that....
Channex757 wrote:
Juncker is being seen as an obstacle to a clean Brexit at the moment, there has even been a suggestion in the press that Merkel wants him moved aside and a more pragmatist leader in his place. Whether that's true or not I neither know nor care. He's just one player in a whole cast of actors in this drama.
Olddog wrote:You want a deal that will undermine deadly EU and you think that is a win win deal ? You really need a reality check. UK in the EU with the EU as support was important. Uk alone competing with the other powers is a dwarf that pretend to be a XIX century giant.
Olddog wrote:But we know the reality. No freedom of movement no deal. I know that your press is telling you that UK is so important that EU will agree with UK position. I'll say Dream on !
Channex757 wrote:Juncker is being seen as an obstacle to a clean Brexit at the moment, there has even been a suggestion in the press that Merkel wants him moved aside and a more pragmatist leader in his place.
OA260 wrote:Pretty much so do not rule him being pushed out either. The main powers that be want a clean and reasonable deal for Brexit and that is what is best for both sides.
Channex757 wrote:I really think you need to calm down Pihero.
Juncker is being obstructionist. Probably because he still has a grudge against Cameron trying to block his appointment. Oh well, never mind. If necessary he can be bypassed.
Channex757 wrote:I really think you need to calm down Pihero.
Juncker is being obstructionist. Probably because he still has a grudge against Cameron trying to block his appointment.
Pihero wrote:Anything is possible but only the first two - IF associated with free movements - would allow the UK to keep / export financial services to the EU.
Channex757 wrote:
Juncker... If necessary he can be bypassed.
Problem is that he is the President of the EU Commission, and as such, will be responsible for the divorce negociations.
He's already appointed the man in charge of the Article 50 Task Force ( Didier Seeuws ) .
Question : Have Merkel or Hollande appointed anybody else ?Channex757 wrote:If this simple statement of facts makes you froth uncontrollably and accuse people of lying, then you need a stiff drink and a lie down. Money talks. Money will decide what happens, not some pipsqueak appointee politician from a tiny country with no economic clout.
OA260 wrote:Both sides have bargaining chips on their side and that will be the thing that determines just what is hammered out at the table. In the end I think we will end up somewhere in the middle.
OA260 wrote:think the EU also underestimate the headache of the Irish border.
OA260 wrote:So a deal will be done because anything else would be impossible to deal with on both sides.
Channex757 wrote:Britain is a special case because of the intra-EU financial trading and various massive loans done between banks. To brush over that as you seem wont to do is just plain silly. Trillions (yes trillions) of Euros and pounds are traded and lent between major banks and they will have a lot to say on the issue, especially as their continued financial health underpins the European Project.
Channex757 wrote:A big issue is going to be the trillions of Euros, pounds and dollars that flow between the big banking concerns of those three nations. Banks lend to each other and many of the UK-based banks will have massive loans made to European banks. This more than anything will drive the next stages of Brexit.
OA260 wrote:Wont/cant/impossible now how many times have I heard that over the years when it comes to negotiations.
BestWestern wrote:I pity those in Gibraltar and southern Andalucia - the volume of workers crossing that border in each direction every day.
Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, recently remarked in an important speech, the British recovery is much more anaemic than widely reported. “So far at least,” he said, “this has been a recovery for the too few rather than the too many, a recovery delivering a little too little rather than far too much.” It has been a jobs rich but pay poor recovery, with half of UK households seeing no increase in their disposable income since 2005 – a lost decade of income. It has been the young and those in the regions who have suffered worst.
Brexit will make all this much worse, but badly handled by the Brexiters catapulted into leading the negotiations, it could morph into a catastrophe. David Davis airily dismissed these risks in an article for ConservativeHome before his appointment. His favoured option was for Britain to trade with the EU under essentially World Trade Organisation rules in a dreamland where there are only benefits and no costs.
Ken777 wrote:Channex757 wrote:A big issue is going to be the trillions of Euros, pounds and dollars that flow between the big banking concerns of those three nations. Banks lend to each other and many of the UK-based banks will have massive loans made to European banks. This more than anything will drive the next stages of Brexit.
This is another one of the issues that will drive inform agreements before the filing of Article 50. Critical issues like this, immediate impacts on NATO relationships, major existing agreements (like within Airbus) all demand that informal discussions be held ASAP and finalized before the formal filing.
OA260 wrote:Aesma wrote:There has to be a referendum or a 3/5 vote of Congress in France for any new country joining the EU. I'd say it would be very difficult for the UK to win this.
Which raises another question about Scotland. They will not be able to remain even if they vote for leaving the UK. Spain pretty much put that idea to bed saying they would not allow it due to their own issues at home with break away regions.
Olddog wrote:Last evening, the diner with all Foreign ministers was cancelled so Johnson could not try to pretend that informal negotiations started....
It seems that as UK tries to delay article 50 for their convenience only, some EU states are thinking about triggering article 7, stripping the UK right to vote on europeans matters.
Ken777 wrote:[This is another one of the issues that will drive inform agreements before the filing of Article 50. Critical issues like this, immediate impacts on NATO relationships, major existing agreements (like within Airbus) all demand that informal discussions be held ASAP and finalized before the formal filing.
Pihero wrote:There won't be any special trade deals between any EU countries and Britain... You'll have to deal with the EU Commission. Your idea is pure fantasy.
TheSonntag wrote:Applying article 7 on Poland or Hungary might be appropriate, but not on the UK. Just being annoying and selfish does not count as an Article 7 infringement.