It's not a matter of if but when the southern portion of the San Andreas fault has a major eruption and it is already 150 years past due based on historical data. While only a few thousand people are projected to perish from the shaking, most if not all of Socal (depending on the magnitude and length) will likely go almost completely off grid for months if not years if it were to happen today or in coming decades. How many people will survive long term? What will happen to America and the world without Los Angeles? I wish CA would wake up but with the amount of time and $ involved needed to fix this, it is still probably too late.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ailymailus

The world will keep spinning as it should. Tectonic movement doesn't happen in a matter of seconds, it happens over millions of years. There's not going to be one single cataclysmic event that causes California to peace out from the continent.

The USA isn't known for updating infrastructure unless some politician can cut a big ribbon and it'll be in the headlines. So like New Orleans, when shit hits the fan LA will be devastated. I'd guess aside from headlines the rest of the world other than the USA won't really be affected without LA, this city itself is one of the most bland in the USA and could use a rebuild. The film industry will suffer heavily though.

TWA772LR wrote:

The world will keep spinning as it should. Tectonic movement doesn't happen in a matter of seconds, it happens over millions of years. There's not going to be one single cataclysmic event that causes California to peace out from the continent.

The article linked and LA going off grid is regarding an earthquake of magnitude of 8.0 or higher, which will last approximately 120-180 seconds, not tectonic plate movement where eventually California will be north of Alaska.

afcjets wrote:

While only a few thousand people are projected to perish from the shaking, most if not all of Socal (depending on the magnitude and length) will likely go almost completely off grid for months if not years if it were to happen today or in coming decades.

Except the article said no such thing.

1) The greatest loss to the world will be the end of dozens if not hundreds of reality shows being produced in southern California. Even shows such as Duck Commander have to have Hollywood to be produced.

2) No place in the world is prepared and ready to return pre-quake operation quickly.

Tokyo could be shutdown by a major quake before Los Angeles. What would be the impact to the Japanese/ world economy if that happened? What about the New Madrid fault? That would be a bigger impact to the country. FedEx would shutdown for a couple weeks until they could move their operations to locations other than MEM. Possibly UPS at SDF would be shut down. Saint Louis would be badly damaged. Barge traffic on the Mississippi River carries a tremendous amount of our nation's economic lifeline. It could be disrupted for years. Railroad traffic across the Mississippi River could be cut in half for years. That could bring famine to the east coast.

3) Southern California will be severely damaged by an earthquake. It has happened in the past 25 years, it will happen again. It won't shut down the metro area, it won't slow down growth, it will have almost no major immediate impact for the rest of the world, and no long term impact on Southern California.

4) The 1994 Northridge quake disrupted a lot of services, infrastructure and caused several billion dollars of damage, but its effects where only a minor blip on a national scale. All the folks who predict a massive 8+ quake ignore that the 5+ magnitude quakes that hit LA every three to five years relieve pressure on the faults, and many scientists say that reduces the chance of a major quake.

5) The Los Angeles metro area is huge. Over 33,000 square miles. The New Madrid 1811-12 earthquakes were felt over about 50,000 square miles. There was not damage over but about 5,000 square miles. The 1906 San Francisco 7.8 earthquake was felt over only about 6,000 square miles, with damage limited to about 150 square miles. There in no basis to believe that a 8.0 earthquake would shutdown water and power to the entire Los Angels metro area, or damage the infrastructure system to require a shutdown of the entire area water and electrical power.

6) The most fragile part of the infrastructure which supports the 18+ million people in the LA metro area is water. There simply isn't enough natural water in the area to support a couple hundred thousand people, much less several million. LA could be forced 'off the grid' due to water from quakes in distant areas which would damage/ destroy the aqueducts which are life line of the metro area. Putting LA back 'on the grid' with electrical power will be pretty easy after a major quake in the LA area - especially of the power generation infrastructure of the Colorado River Valley is not damaged. Putting LA back with water might be more difficult. It is a lot more work to restore damaged water supply lines, especially for large volume conduits, than it is to restore electrical supply. (NYC has an even more critical issue with a fragile water supply system.)

mham001 wrote:

afcjets wrote:

While only a few thousand people are projected to perish from the shaking, most if not all of Socal (depending on the magnitude and length) will likely go almost completely off grid for months if not years if it were to happen today or in coming decades.

Except the article said no such thing.

This one does...

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-n ... 32/?no-ist

[quote="rfields5421"]1)

3) Southern California will be severely damaged by an earthquake. It has happened in the past 25 years, it will happen again. It won't shut down the metro area, it won't slow down growth, it will have almost no major immediate impact for the rest of the world, and no long term impact on Southern California.cture system to require a shutdown of the entire area water and electrical

4) The 1994 Northridge quake disrupted a lot of services, infrastructure and caused several billion dollars of damage, but its effects where only a minor blip on a national scale. All the folks who predict a massive 8+ quake ignore that the 5+ magnitude quakes that hit LA every three to five years relieve pressure on the faults, and many scientists say that reduces the chance of a major quake.

quote]

The 6.7 Northridge quake 22 years ago and projected 8.0 are nowhere near the same level. Also, were there no 5+ earthquakes in the LA area 300 years ago leading up to the last major eruption on the southern part of the San Andreas fault?

afcjets wrote:

It's not a matter of if but when the southern portion of the San Andreas fault has a major eruption and it is already 150 years past due based on historical data. While only a few thousand people are projected to perish from the shaking, most if not all of Socal (depending on the magnitude and length) will likely go almost completely off grid for months if not years if it were to happen today or in coming decades. How many people will survive long term? What will happen to America and the world without Los Angeles? I wish CA would wake up but with the amount of time and $ involved needed to fix this, it is still probably too late.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ailymailus

This has to be one of the most poorly written articles in history. Seriously. It is an article, by and for stupid people. The details are lacking, and the numbers are full of crap. LA is crisscrossed by fault lines, so an 8.0 would not necessarily be felt everywhere in the basin. The people are resilient and capable of picking up a hammer and cleaning scrap.

Lost electricity? Generators
Lost water? Trucks and fires for purifying them


At the end of the day. like all areas that receive natural disasters, folks will work on the important infrastucture first(hospitals, schools, airports, shipping, rail) and the rest later.

Bonus points for LA... Awesome weather that makes heating and AC mute points.

To just write off the LA i area s naive and stupid.

The more likely damaging scenarios to force large areas in Western North America to go 'off grid' would be:
1) An offshore quake from a major fault off the coast of Washington, Oregon and British Columbia triggering a tsunami very quickly and massive damage to all along the coasts there as well as Seattle, Victoria, Vancouver and miles inland along rivers (like the Columbia River) from up to 100 ft (30 M) waves as seen in Indonesia or slightly less ones as happened in Japan. There wouldn't be enough time to evacuate many so a huge loss of life. Would be massive infrastructure damage. Likely Microsoft and Boeing would have to relocate. Insured losses would destroy many insurance companies.
2) A major volcano eruption in the same region, far worse than Mt. St. Helens which would have massive 'grid' and physical damage.

You also have the 'off grid' potential in the SF Bay region, from an earthquake as bad as in 1989 (?) or 1906 or worse, with the concentration of people and tech co's in the region.

Redd wrote:

The USA isn't known for updating infrastructure unless some politician can cut a big ribbon and it'll be in the headlines. So like New Orleans, when shit hits the fan LA will be devastated. I'd guess aside from headlines the rest of the world other than the USA won't really be affected without LA, this city itself is one of the most bland in the USA and could use a rebuild. The film industry will suffer heavily though.

Don't forget the porn industry.

rfields5421 wrote:

That would be a bigger impact to the country. FedEx would shutdown for a couple weeks until they could move their operations to locations other than MEM. Possibly UPS at SDF would be shut down. Saint Louis would be badly damaged. Barge traffic on the Mississippi River carries a tremendous amount of our nation's economic lifeline.

True, but let's not forget that LA has the busiest container port in the country. And Long Beach has the 2nd busiest next-door. Lots of goods come through the port.

Then there is still lots of industry in the LA area, and a hell of a lot of sub-tier suppliers to companies like Boeing.

rfields5421 wrote:

5) The Los Angeles metro area is huge. Over 33,000 square miles.

Misleading. The Combined Statistical Area is 33,000 square miles, which includes all of sparsely-populated San Bernardino and Riverside counties.

The Los Angeles MSA is around 5000 square miles (LA and Orange counties). Over 12 million people live in that area. If you extend that to include the immediately surrrounding parts of Ventura, SB, and Riverside counties, you'll get quite a bit more population without coming anywhere near 33,000 square miles.

Even the MSA is a bit misleading, because the northern half of LA County is also sparsely-populated. I have no data to back this up, but I'd bet that half of the 18 million people live within a 3000 square mile area.

casinterest wrote:

Bonus points for LA... Awesome weather that makes heating and AC mute points.

Depends on where you are. Inland and the valleys can most definitely use AC in the summer (by the way, it's "moot", not mute.....sorry).

vikkyvik wrote:

rfields5421 wrote:

That would be a bigger impact to the country. FedEx would shutdown for a couple weeks until they could move their operations to locations other than MEM. Possibly UPS at SDF would be shut down. Saint Louis would be badly damaged. Barge traffic on the Mississippi River carries a tremendous amount of our nation's economic lifeline.

True, but let's not forget that LA has the busiest container port in the country. And Long Beach has the 2nd busiest next-door. Lots of goods come through the port.

Yes, but many of those containers go to the east coast by rail, crossing the Mississippi River. Even many of the massive numbers of containers that come into Houston have to cross the Mississippi. Below St Louis there are only seven rail bridges across the Mississippi south of the MacArthur Bridge in St Louis. That bridge, the Thebes Bridge at Carthage MO and the two bridges at Memphis would be destroyed. Also likely the Vicksburg Bridge would be damaged/ unusable. That leaves only the Baton Rouge and New Orleans bridges in regular operation.

vikkyvik wrote:

Misleading. The Combined Statistical Area is 33,000 square miles, which includes all of sparsely-populated San Bernardino and Riverside counties.

The Los Angeles MSA is around 5000 square miles (LA and Orange counties). Over 12 million people live in that area. If you extend that to include the immediately surrrounding parts of Ventura, SB, and Riverside counties, you'll get quite a bit more population without coming anywhere near 33,000 square miles.

Even the MSA is a bit misleading, because the northern half of LA County is also sparsely-populated. I have no data to back this up, but I'd bet that half of the 18 million people live within a 3000 square mile area.

Many of those geographical features which limit the highest concentrations of people to certain areas, would also limit damage and impact of a major quake. Some would be major problems - passes to the north could likely be closed semi-permanently. But something that takes out Cajon would have to be well above 8 to also take out the I-5 and CA-14 routes.

Necessity is the mother of invention. Humans are a resilient species, so I have no doubt after a massive quake life would get back to normal within several weeks.

PacificBeach88 wrote:

Necessity is the mother of invention. Humans are a resilient species, so I have no doubt after a massive quake life would get back to normal within several weeks.

Hours or minutes. I was in the "Rattle In Seattle" in 2001 and we all were doing what we could normally that afternoon.

Some more articles and reports/studies:
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-m ... story.html
https://bedrosian.usc.edu/blog/research ... nitiative/
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-m ... story.html
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4742
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 0113/full#
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/12/us/ca ... n-jacinto/

rfields5421 wrote:

Yes, but many of those containers go to the east coast by rail, crossing the Mississippi River. Even many of the massive numbers of containers that come into Houston have to cross the Mississippi. Below St Louis there are only seven rail bridges across the Mississippi south of the MacArthur Bridge in St Louis. That bridge, the Thebes Bridge at Carthage MO and the two bridges at Memphis would be destroyed. Also likely the Vicksburg Bridge would be damaged/ unusable. That leaves only the Baton Rouge and New Orleans bridges in regular operation.

I'm not discounting what a major quake in that area would do. I'm just saying that a major quake with major damage in LA could easily cause repercussions throughout the country. Those containers wouldn't even get offloaded, never mind onto trains and all the way to the Mississippi.

rfields5421 wrote:

But something that takes out Cajon would have to be well above 8 to also take out the I-5 and CA-14 routes.

I'm not a seismologist, nor a geologist. But Cajon (I-15), Tejon (I-5), and Soledad (CA-14) all cross the San Andreas fault, within about 90 miles of each other. I wonder if a major earthquake on the San Andreas could disrupt all three.

afcjets wrote:

What will happen to America and the world without Los Angeles?

Nothing. Life will go on.

vikkyvik wrote:

I'm not a seismologist, nor a geologist. But Cajon (I-15), Tejon (I-5), and Soledad (CA-14) all cross the San Andreas fault, within about 90 miles of each other. I wonder if a major earthquake on the San Andreas could disrupt all three.

The 1857 7.9 Fort Tejon quake is probably a good indicator of what could happen.

It caused a major displacement along the San Andreas averaging 4.5 meters (15 ft) slip and a maximum offset of 9 meters (30 ft) from in San Luis Obispo. The quake was along 225 miles of the southern section of the San Andreas from Parkfield to Wrightwood. Though the epicenter was near the northern end of the quake, the greatest impact was near Fort Tejon. The quake 'stopped'/dissipated significantly when it got to Cajon, it is thought because the part of the San Andreas Cajon and to the south had a lot of pressure relieved by the 1812 6.9 quake. That one extended 150 miles from Wrightwood to the south.

The more I read on this, the more it seems that the San Andreas is not one continuous fault that slips and causes earthquakes over its entire length at the same time. There have been several large quakes along portions of the fault, but not along the entire fault at the same time.

The San Fernando Valley along with Palmdale are at greatest risk of damage from a 1857 type event, along with the Los Angeles Aqueduct and the California Aqueduct.

A repeat of the 1812 quake could hurt Cajon Pass and the eastern LA basin badly.

The 2015 UCERF3 (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Ver 3) has some interesting data and information. The baseline quake for the forecast is a 6.7 - like the 1994 Northridge quake - within a 30 year period. The forecast shows a min 17%, max 93%, mean 53% forecast for a 6.7 or higher quake somewhere along the entire San Andreas fault line within the 30 year period 2015-2045. It also suggest at 6.7 level quake in the LA area at a mean of 60%, but for an 8.0 quake in the LA area - the forecast is for a mean of 7% probability, a maximum of 32% probability.

Some really interesting data, and predictions. But as we all know - predictions are seldom exactly what does occur. The possibility of several smaller quakes is high, as is the possibility of one massive quake.

LMP737 wrote:

Redd wrote:

The USA isn't known for updating infrastructure unless some politician can cut a big ribbon and it'll be in the headlines. So like New Orleans, when shit hits the fan LA will be devastated. I'd guess aside from headlines the rest of the world other than the USA won't really be affected without LA, this city itself is one of the most bland in the USA and could use a rebuild. The film industry will suffer heavily though.

Don't forget the porn industry.

That would be a tragedy,.....

LMP737 wrote:

Don't forget the porn industry.

Nowadays much of that has decentralized from Los Angeles into other parts of the country, specifically San Francisco and Florida, as well as a few other places.

As far as dangers to Los Angeles go, I'd be as much if not more worried about a big chunk of accumulated lava built up from Kilauea's constant eruption since 1983 falling into the sea and causing a massive tsunami along the west coast.

vikkyvik wrote:

I'm not a seismologist, nor a geologist. But Cajon (I-15), Tejon (I-5), and Soledad (CA-14) all cross the San Andreas fault, within about 90 miles of each other. I wonder if a major earthquake on the San Andreas could disrupt all three.

The San Andreas runs adjacent to the Cajon Pass. It is probably why the pass is there. There are lots of cuts, fills , and embankments in the area, which closes off the 15. The evacuation route from the IE would then be the 10 which will still roughly track the San Andreas towards the Salton Sea,, but there would be access into Arizona, and also southbound into San Diego and Mexico, plus Interstate 8 to the east.

Beardown91737 wrote:

The San Andreas runs adjacent to the Cajon Pass.

Yeah, actually runs through the pass, from the north side of the San Gabriels to the south side of the San Bernardino mountains.

But my point was that all those passes and their respective freeways (and San Gorgonio Pass with the I-10, which I forgot about) are all adjacent to the fault.

rfields5421 wrote:

1) The greatest loss to the world will be the end of dozens if not hundreds of reality shows being produced in southern California.

That would be fantastic, actually.

I think it's more likely that terrorist take out the power grid to most if not all the United States. Read Ted Koppel book: Lights Out: A Cyberattack, A Nation Unprepared, Surviving the Aftermath

910A wrote:

I think it's more likely that terrorist take out the power grid

OMG - my grandchildren might actually be without phones and have to TALK to people.

rfields5421 wrote:

910A wrote:

I think it's more likely that terrorist take out the power grid

OMG - my grandchildren might actually be without phones and have to TALK to people.

And your great-grandfather said the same thing....these whippersnappers will have to go back to candles and whale blubber lamps to survive. I wish those damn kids would turn off that radio / telegraph nonsense.

[quote="afcjets"What will happen to America and the world without Los Angeles? [/quote]

The rest of the world will keep ticking. No one will really care all that much. CA is not all that important to the world.

garpd wrote:

afcjets wrote:

What will happen to America and the world without Los Angeles?

The rest of the world will keep ticking. No one will really care all that much. CA is not all that important to the world.

Bless your heart.

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

Bless your heart.

ha ha

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to be disrespectful, but the world does not revolve around the US or California

From a cynical point of view: No one will give a shit about some rich folks experiencing some problems.

garpd wrote:

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

Bless your heart.

ha ha

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to be disrespectful, but the world does not revolve around the US or California

From a cynical point of view: No one will give a shit about some rich folks experiencing some problems.

Did you hear about our new state recommended method of installing lightbulbs?

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

Did you hear about our new state recommended method of installing lightbulbs?

I wonder if the new CA law requiring condoms in porn had installation instructions too?

garpd wrote:

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to be disrespectful, but the world does not revolve around the US or California

From a cynical point of view: No one will give a shit about some rich folks experiencing some problems.

Of course the world will notice. Your Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, iPhone, iPad, iWhatever, Salesforce.com, and Googling won't work. You won't be able to watch PORN either! And you think your life won't change?

PacificBeach88 wrote:

Of course the world will notice. Your Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, iPhone, iPad, iWhatever, Salesforce.com, and Googling won't work. You won't be able to watch PORN either! And you think your life won't change?

Facebook have other servers, as do the rest. I don't use iAnything as I'm not stupid enough to buy into their crap. So.... my life will go on

PacificBeach88 wrote:

garpd wrote:

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to be disrespectful, but the world does not revolve around the US or California

From a cynical point of view: No one will give a shit about some rich folks experiencing some problems.

Of course the world will notice. Your Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, iPhone, iPad, iWhatever, Salesforce.com, and Googling won't work. You won't be able to watch PORN either! And you think your life won't change?

Oh like you can't find more than day old porn!

Hang on....did you mean there's iPorn?

Actually no, that's a terrible brand name.

mham001 wrote:

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

Did you hear about our new state recommended method of installing lightbulbs?

I wonder if the new CA law requiring condoms in porn had installation instructions too?

No. Our new method of lightbulb installation for southern Californians is as follows:

1. Hold lightbulb in socket.

2. Stand still so that while the universe is revolving around you, the bulb screws itself in.

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

1. Hold lightbulb in socket.

2. Stand still so that while the universe is revolving around you, the bulb screws itself in.

Meh. Pick up LED 60 watt light bulb 24 packs for $50 at Costco and quit whining. Once replaced they last 13 years.

http://www.costco.com/Luminus-LED-60W-R ... 11641.html

coolian2 wrote:

Hang on....did you mean there's iPorn?

Yes, it's called masturbation.

bgm wrote:

coolian2 wrote:

Hang on....did you mean there's iPorn?

Yes, it's called masturbation.

Ah. I have been accused of using an Apple product a lot then, given how often I'm called a wanker.

"Anything that comes into southern California has to cross the San Andreas Fault to get to us - gas, electricity, water, freeways, railways,' said seismologist Lucy Jones, who acted as advisor for the Southern California Disaster Risk Reduction Initiative committee, which issued the report.

'Most of the water that we get has to cross the fault to reach us but when the earthquake happens, all of the aqueducts will be broken at the same time,' Jones, known as California's 'earthquake lady,' told AFP.

I totally forgot about the 8, it is pretty far south of the end of the fault, does anyone know how many miles? Would it be damaged, or could trucks still reach Socal that way? SD (SAN) won't really be damaged but I believe will also be without water because I believe the water comes via the same aqueducts. I really can't imagine getting water from FEMA or anything moving anywhere near LA, where there is gridlock on a normal day. When all hell breaks loose and people have to drive to get water or escape their damaged homes, compounded with severed freeways, how will most of 10 million people survive after a week or so?

I really wonder about the sanity of so many morons that seem to be in masturbatory glee over a Zombie Apocalypse type scenario. I think they simply watch too much TV.

PacificBeach88 wrote:

I really wonder about the sanity of so many morons that seem to be in masturbatory glee over a Zombie Apocalypse type scenario. I think they simply watch too much TV.

You might jerk off to it MN, if you actually lived anywhere near PB as your userid indicates, you might take the San Andreas fault more seriously.

afcjets wrote:

PacificBeach88 wrote:

I really wonder about the sanity of so many morons that seem to be in masturbatory glee over a Zombie Apocalypse type scenario. I think they simply watch too much TV.

You might jerk off to it MN, if you actually lived anywhere near PB as your userid indicates, you might take the San Andreas fault more seriously.

Given I spend 6 weeks or more in PB per annum, and have lived there full time for years at a time, your concern trolling is noted.

Redd wrote:

The USA isn't known for updating infrastructure unless some politician can cut a big ribbon and it'll be in the headlines. So like New Orleans, when shit hits the fan LA will be devastated. I'd guess aside from headlines the rest of the world other than the USA won't really be affected without LA, this city itself is one of the most bland in the USA and could use a rebuild. The film industry will suffer heavily though.

garpd wrote:

[quote="afcjets]"What will happen to America and the world without Los Angeles? [/quote]

The rest of the world will keep ticking. No one will really care all that much. CA is not all that important to the world.[/quote]

If you don't think the 6th largest economy in the world taking a punch to the gut will have major repercussions you are sadly mistaken, we are talking about a state with a larger GDP than France or India, the repercussions of a devastating quake hitting LA is not going to be a walk in the park for anyone.

jetwet1 wrote:

Redd wrote:

The USA isn't known for updating infrastructure unless some politician can cut a big ribbon and it'll be in the headlines. So like New Orleans, when shit hits the fan LA will be devastated. I'd guess aside from headlines the rest of the world other than the USA won't really be affected without LA, this city itself is one of the most bland in the USA and could use a rebuild. The film industry will suffer heavily though.

garpd wrote:

[quote="afcjets]"What will happen to America and the world without Los Angeles? [/quote]

The rest of the world will keep ticking. No one will really care all that much. CA is not all that important to the world.[/quote][/quote]

If you don't think the 6th largest economy in the world taking a punch to the gut will have major repercussions you are sadly mistaken, we are talking about a state with a larger GDP than France or India, the repercussions of a devastating quake hitting LA is not going to be a walk in the park for anyone.[/quote]

The smart person in the room speaks using facts and figures. Thank You!

The world would notice California floating off into the Pacific.


Beyond that, lots of social media-infused hype from OP. That is how our world operates today. "Worst Blizzard Ever" "Storm of Century" "Hottest summer" "Coldest winter"

The big one will hit SoCal, but they won't be off grid for years. New Orleans is the perfect example. That was the worst case scenario...and it wasn't off grid very long at all; relatively speaking. The government will pour billions of dollars in, the poor people will be relocated, the people that have money to rebuild will rebuild, and some ingenious, well-connected company will make a ton of money.

Our generation constantly posts about horrendous, doomsday scenarios that may or may not happen.

Yet, the most likely doomsday scenario, a terrorist setting off a nuke in Times Square (or some other NYC landmark), doesn't get much play at all.


Perhaps our generation would do better if we concentrated on real problems that we could influence and control.

jfklganyc wrote:

[


The smart person in the room speaks using facts and figures. Thank You!

The world would notice California floating off into the Pacific.


Beyond that, lots of social media-infused hype from OP. That is how our world operates today. "Worst Blizzard Ever" "Storm of Century" "Hottest summer" "Coldest winter"

The big one will hit SoCal, but they won't be off grid for years. New Orleans is the perfect example. That was the worst case scenario...and it wasn't off grid very long at all; relatively speaking. The government will pour billions of dollars in, the poor people will be relocated, the people that have money to rebuild will rebuild, and some ingenious, well-connected company will make a ton of money.

Our generation constantly posts about horrendous, doomsday scenarios that may or may not happen.

Yet, the most likely doomsday scenario, a terrorist setting off a nuke in Times Square (or some other NYC landmark), doesn't get much play at all.


Perhaps our generation would do better if we concentrated on real problems that we could influence and control.

Thank you for the complement, though it may be going a little far lol

A few facts and figures, New Orleans GDP is roughly $80B, Katrina cost roughly $115B GDP loses and insurance claims of $60B, Los Angles county GDP is $544B, Orange County is $232B, San Fransisco/Oakland is $370B, forgetting the insurance claims where real estate values in any of those 3 areas dwarfs New Orleans, just the economic hit from any one getting hit with a massive earthquake could easily be a trillion dollar hit to the economy, if something like the movie San Andreas hit's with both the major metro areas in South and North California being devastated, well frankly wiping out Mexico or the Netherlands would have less of an effect on the world economy than those 3 metropolitan areas.

As I am bored, I took a little time and looked at the real estate costs, very rough and ready, but, there are 3.1m inhabited dwellings in LA county, assuming the average cost to replace them is $200,000 each (average cost to build a 2000 sq ft home in LA county) that's $639B, that doesn't count for the commercial buildings.....

Okay, i'm going to bed on those happy thoughts.