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Revelation
Topic Author
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### Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

I love the kind of infographics used in Math: The Election’s Over. Can We Please Move On?.

I know it's tempting fate to say the election is over, but, still, I love the way this page uses infographics, because it shows us that our eyes deceive us.

Or, put another way, the standard way of showing the electoral map is deceptive.

Look at the standard map:

The problem is that the states are shown in proportion to their geographical size, NOT in proportion to their electoral votes!

And since the Red Candidate is popular in states that are large geographically but not so much in terms of electoral votes, your eyes are deceiving you!

If you redraw the map in proportion to the electoral votes, you get:

And it's clear there's far more blue than red!

One more picture should show it more clearly:

Hillary needs to fill in just 16 of the hexagons to win. Donald needs to fill in 106!

The page has a lot more text explaining the graphics, the data and its trends.

For instance:

But that doesn’t matter. Clinton takes Florida, it’s over. She takes Ohio, it’s over. Wisconsin and North Carolina… really, anything that gets 16 electoral votes. Trump… he basically needs to take them all. That’s. Just. Not. Happening. It’s like landing 00 in Roulette twice in a row while getting eaten by a shark. And his luck at casinos wasn’t that good.

It should be clear, short of some 'October Surprise', that Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!!!

salttee
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Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

I don't think it's even that close. But Trump is going to do a lot of damage to the nation before the election and then even more after that. He always seeks retribution against those who have wronged him: this time it will be a whole nation.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a psych ward at some point in the future. Possibly the best thing for all would be for him to immigrate to Russia.

PacificBeach88
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Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:42 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

A terrorist attack in America could change that map overnight.

ContentCreator
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

PacificBeach88 wrote:
A terrorist attack in America could change that map overnight.

Fingers crossed.

casinterest
Posts: 14147
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Nate silver paints an even bleaker picture for trump right now .

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -forecast/
=========================================================================
Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt 4.8%
Clinton wins popular vote 88.0%
Trump wins popular vote 12.0%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 5.2%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 0.6%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote 1.0%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 40.2%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 1.5%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 20.8%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin 0.4%
Map exactly the same as in 2012 0.4%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 81.9%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 62.8%

727LOVER
Posts: 8633
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

NEVER SAY NEVER...but...

Well actually, there are some maps that have her at 272 already. Those 4 yellow toss-ups are going in her direction currently

I can't wait for the conservative predictions:

flyingturtle
Posts: 6191
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

"Statistically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!"

Fixed that for you.

It is often understood that risk = impact x probability. PredictWise has Trump still at 12% probability of winning the presidency. And a 1% probability of a 4-year nightmare is still something... dreadful. A huge risk.

David

Tugger
Posts: 11532
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

It's all RIGGED!!!!!

This is obviously proof since the vote hasn't even happened and the corrupt powers that control our nation have already decided the numbers and outcome..... And quite frankly I will be surprised if this is NOT something the Donald claims.

Tugg

Hillis
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Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

salttee wrote:
I don't think it's even that close. But Trump is going to do a lot of damage to the nation before the election and then even more after that. He always seeks retribution against those who have wronged him: this time it will be a whole nation.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a psych ward at some point in the future. Possibly the best thing for all would be for him to immigrate to Russia.

I agree. Right now, Iowa, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina are all leaning for Clinton. Arizona is a toss-up, and Georgia is close. South Carolina isn't even in the "safe" GOP column right now.

I'd like to see a few post-tape, post-2nd debate polls in places like Utah, Texas, South Carolina and Indiana, for example, that would take a reading of just how far ahead Trump might be in those states. I think it might be close than one things, and if Trump continues to go down in flames, he could lose one or two of those.

I think right now, Clinton could get as many as 359 electoral votes, and I'm betting she takes Arizona right now.

desertjets
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Hillis wrote:
salttee wrote:
I agree. Right now, Iowa, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina are all leaning for Clinton. Arizona is a toss-up, and Georgia is close. South Carolina isn't even in the "safe" GOP column right now.

I'd like to see a few post-tape, post-2nd debate polls in places like Utah, Texas, South Carolina and Indiana, for example, that would take a reading of just how far ahead Trump might be in those states. I think it might be close than one things, and if Trump continues to go down in flames, he could lose one or two of those.

I think right now, Clinton could get as many as 359 electoral votes, and I'm betting she takes Arizona right now.

With the GOP establishment abandoning Trump, and Trump taking off the shackles against his own party his numbers and numbers for down ballot Republicans are only going to get worse.

mbmbos
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Joined: Sat May 27, 2000 4:16 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Oddly enough, Alaska is also in play. The state could very well go for Clinton as polls are close.

727LOVER
Posts: 8633
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

mbmbos wrote:
Oddly enough, Alaska is also in play. The state could very well go for Clinton as polls are close.

It's still 70-30 in Trumps favor.

Posts: 664
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:47 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

salttee wrote:
I don't think it's even that close. But Trump is going to do a lot of damage to the nation before the election and then even more after that. He always seeks retribution against those who have wronged him: this time it will be a whole nation.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a psych ward at some point in the future. Possibly the best thing for all would be for him to immigrate to Russia.

I am not trying to insult or even exaggerate, but Donald clearly suffers at least one kind of personality disorder. It is very clear, and if you have a background in psychology/psychiatry you would know what I am talking about.

I wonder why don't they run some medical/mental checks for all those nominated for general election.

ER757
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Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Mathematically or not - it's over. There's no way Trump can put together enough support now to win any state that's close. Members of his own party are jumping ship left and right (and who can blame them if they are running for re-election themselves) and those already opposed to him or "undecided" as of last week sure aren't flocking to his cause.
Hell - even Glenn Beck....GLENN BECK for crying out loud is saying vote for Hillary:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/11/politics/ ... al-choice/

The GOP needs to throw in the towel on this one and focus on putting up a good candidate for 2020

scbriml
Posts: 20191
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

ER757 wrote:
The GOP needs to throw in the towel on this one and focus on putting up a good candidate for 2020

Deja vu? Sounds like 2008 and 2012 all over again.

Hillis
Posts: 1307
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

scbriml wrote:
ER757 wrote:
The GOP needs to throw in the towel on this one and focus on putting up a good candidate for 2020

Deja vu? Sounds like 2008 and 2012 all over again.

The problem being their candidates suck.

And who are we going to get for 2020? More Ted Cruz? He's more dangerous than Trump in some ways? The also-rans like Huckabee, Santorum and Carson? A "moderate" (who really isn't) like Kasich, or Mr. No-Show Marco Rubio?

And I haven't even mentioned the guy the nuts on the right really want, which is Tom Cotton, who has been bought and paid for by Israel, and seems to want more and more warfare in the Middle East/Persian Gulf.

Yeah, 2020 isn't going to be much better.

ER757
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Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

scbriml wrote:
ER757 wrote:
The GOP needs to throw in the towel on this one and focus on putting up a good candidate for 2020

Deja vu? Sounds like 2008 and 2012 all over again.

Sure does.....very disappointing for an independent like myself when I see one of the major parties toss up a lightweight time after time, after time.

salttee
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

I wonder why don't they run some medical/mental checks for all those nominated for general election.

That sounds a bit Stalinist to me.
Besides the "people" (about one third of the Republican party) chose him to be a candidate.

Hillis
Posts: 1307
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

727LOVER wrote:
mbmbos wrote:
Oddly enough, Alaska is also in play. The state could very well go for Clinton as polls are close.

It's still 70-30 in Trumps favor.

Problem is, no one really cares about Alaska (and it has nothing to do with Sarah Palin), so no real polls have been taken up there. You could be right, but we don't know. It isn't like Alaska is going to be the tipping point for the election. but Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina and Indiana may all be in play. Indiana is pretty solid red, but Even Bayh looks like he could win a Senate seat in Indiana, and Pence is extremely unpopular in that state as well.

einsteinboricua
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball made a bold move to downgrade UT from Safe to Lean. He thinks Trump will carry Utah, but only barely due to the scandals. It's not like they will go for Clinton but it could be enough to make UT Reps stay home or vote for someone else. In that sense, I salute them.

Hillis wrote:
Problem is, no one really cares about Alaska (and it has nothing to do with Sarah Palin), so no real polls have been taken up there. You could be right, but we don't know. It isn't like Alaska is going to be the tipping point for the election. but Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina and Indiana may all be in play.

The most recent poll from Alaska has Trump up by 3. Arizona had Clinton up by 1. Georgia is safer in the red column, but just barely. Indiana is as red as can be. As much as Hoosiers dislike Pence, the fact that he's at the top of the ticket is a way to send him out. In the end, the red shade of Hoosiers will come out. South Carolina kinda see-sawed toward Clinton, but there's still a lot more to go before it becomes purple. I see Georgia and Texas becoming purple before South Carolina even considers voting blue.

wingman
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

I am not trying to insult or even exaggerate, but Donald clearly suffers at least one kind of personality disorder. It is very clear, and if you have a background in psychology/psychiatry you would know what I am talking about. I wonder why don't they run some medical/mental checks for all those nominated for general election.

This kind of gets to the heart of the dilemma for the GOP. They, in partnership with extreme right wing media groups, have created a Frankenstein core of primary voters that suffer the same general sickness as Donald. It's laughable to hear them continue to trot out images of Reagan..the man wouldn't have even bothered to run for the ticket in today's environment. The core that gets the vote out is racist, bigoted, misogynist, pro stupid and generally dreaming of living in the past where these traits could still provide a middle class income. And they don't any more. It's scary as hell but these red states getting squeezed in the middle better wake up and smell tomorrow. Blacks and Mexicans and Asians are here to stay and a 7th grade education and digging for coal ain't gonna cut it.

MaverickM11
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

But there IS plenty of time left for Trump and his deplorables to set the GOP ablaze and salt the ruins

Hillis
Posts: 1307
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

wingman wrote:
I am not trying to insult or even exaggerate, but Donald clearly suffers at least one kind of personality disorder. It is very clear, and if you have a background in psychology/psychiatry you would know what I am talking about. I wonder why don't they run some medical/mental checks for all those nominated for general election.

This kind of gets to the heart of the dilemma for the GOP. They, in partnership with extreme right wing media groups, have created a Frankenstein core of primary voters that suffer the same general sickness as Donald. It's laughable to hear them continue to trot out images of Reagan..the man wouldn't have even bothered to run for the ticket in today's environment. The core that gets the vote out is racist, bigoted, misogynist, pro stupid and generally dreaming of living in the past where these traits could still provide a middle class income. And they don't any more. It's scary as hell but these red states getting squeezed in the middle better wake up and smell tomorrow. Blacks and Mexicans and Asians are here to stay and a 7th grade education and digging for coal ain't gonna cut it.

The heart of the dilemma is that much of the GOP clearly suffers from mental disorders. That may sound flippant or meant to be funny, but it's not. Look at the base of the party. I mean the core die-hards. They're angry to the point of almost insanity, as their hate for Obama, Clinton and anything else they don't find good enough over-rides any semblance of common sense. Many of them are armed to the teeth, with multiple weapons, convinced that FEMA camps are up, and that even now, 8 years later, Obama is going to take their guns. They have a pathological hatred of Muslims, African-Americans, LGBT's, and anyone else who doesn't look, pray or do it, if you will, like they do. It's beyond simply disagreement. It's looking at other Americans as legitimate enemies and treating them as such. You think those Jim Bob's who ring a Mosque once in a while with weapons are in their right mind? I don't.

It's much the same malady that descended on Germany in the 1920's, that led to the rise of Adolph Hitler. The U.S. has an advantage insofar as we're not as homogeneous as Germany was back in those times, and we do have a lot of diversity here, so not everyone is susceptible to this idiocy.

Until this generation of mostly white, mostly rural, under-educated and very ignorant base of the GOP dies off, they're going to push further and further to the right. Hell, just today, Governor Paul LePage of Maine said maybe we need an authoritarian leader like Trump. That, along with saying you'll arrest your prime political opponent if you're elected smacks of Fascism. My worry is that those heavily armed, insanely angry individuals will lash out sooner or later against the rest of us, and things will get bloody.

Hillis
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

MaverickM11 wrote:
But there IS plenty of time left for Trump and his deplorables to set the GOP ablaze and salt the ruins

Trump is playing the scorched-earth game the way Stalin played it against Hitler.

afcjets
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

I can't wait to see all of you Hillary freaks defend the email wikileaks released today where her campagain manager says she has begun to hate everyday Ameicans lol. Even thouh he probably meant the phrase it still doesn't sound very nice.

ElliottM
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

I have studied statistics and I find it interesting how media outlets (on both sides) represent data. They usually present it in a misleading manner, but in this case, the geographical US map itself is misleading!

Hillis wrote:
The heart of the dilemma is that much of the GOP clearly suffers from mental disorders. That may sound flippant or meant to be funny, but it's not. Look at the base of the party. I mean the core die-hards. They're angry to the point of almost insanity, as their hate for Obama, Clinton and anything else they don't find good enough over-rides any semblance of common sense. Many of them are armed to the teeth, with multiple weapons, convinced that FEMA camps are up, and that even now, 8 years later, Obama is going to take their guns. They have a pathological hatred of Muslims, African-Americans, LGBT's, and anyone else who doesn't look, pray or do it, if you will, like they do. It's beyond simply disagreement. It's looking at other Americans as legitimate enemies and treating them as such. You think those Jim Bob's who ring a Mosque once in a while with weapons are in their right mind? I don't.

As a lifelong Republican, I'll never agree "much of the GOP clearly suffers from mental disorders", which is a baseless and unsourced claim. But I will agree that Trump himself seems to experience NPD or something similar to it. He has a grandiose sense of self-importance and an ego inflated beyond repair.

But then, I'm not what you describe as a die-hard. I disagree with Obama and Clinton on many key issues, but I don't hold personal animosity ("hate") towards them. I also don't buy into the right-wing conspiracies that most of my social circle and coworkers seem to. I believe in religious pluralism. This has led me to feel very alienated from what the GOP is becoming before my very eyes. I can't vote for Clinton either, but when I get into that ballot box I don't think I'll be able to vote for Trump. Trump sells fear. He gives people things to be afraid of and then capitalizes on their fear. Unfortunately for him, I and many other Republicans aren't easily scared.

zckls04
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

afcjets wrote:
I can't wait to see all of you Hillary freaks defend the email wikileaks released today where her campagain manager says she has begun to hate everyday Ameicans lol. Even thouh he probably meant the phrase it still doesn't sound very nice.

The phrase grasping at straws springs to mind.

afcjets
Posts: 3846
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

zckls04 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
I can't wait to see all of you Hillary freaks defend the email wikileaks released today where her campagain manager says she has begun to hate everyday Ameicans lol. Even thouh he probably meant the phrase it still doesn't sound very nice.

The phrase grasping at straws springs to mind.

Sorta like when Trump makes the statement a celebrity can grab a woman by the pussy and get it away with it means he admitted to sexually assaulting a woman.

PacificBeach88
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

zckls04 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
I can't wait to see all of you Hillary freaks defend the email wikileaks released today where her campagain manager says she has begun to hate everyday Ameicans lol. Even thouh he probably meant the phrase it still doesn't sound very nice.

The phrase grasping at straws springs to mind.

Who wouldn't hate "everyday Americans....aka....the 38% of America that supports Trump"? I would. I do.

ContentCreator
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### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

afcjets wrote:
I can't wait to see all of you Hillary freaks defend the email wikileaks released today where her campagain manager says she has begun to hate everyday Ameicans lol. Even thouh he probably meant the phrase it still doesn't sound very nice.

Do you drive or have to deal with people in a customer service role? I do and I certainly agree with her that I too hate every day Americans. They can be real idiots.

I do like to grab pussy though, so I put up with some people.

HGL
Posts: 330
Joined: Sat May 28, 2016 3:25 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

It's beginning to look as if Trump wished it were over.

Warning that this "great movement will be just an asterisk in history" he urged his followers to go out and register and vote on ... November 28!

aerorobnz
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Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2001 3:43 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Certainly it shows positive sign that sanity might be returning slowly, however Al Gore thought he had won, so did Dukakis. This cockroach hasn't died so far. so until he is confirmed as having lost the election after the votes are in, the nervous knot in the stomach will remain. The Brexit polls had "Stay" winning. so there is still cause for some concern

Hillis
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Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

ContentCreator wrote:
afcjets wrote:
I can't wait to see all of you Hillary freaks defend the email wikileaks released today where her campagain manager says she has begun to hate everyday Ameicans lol. Even thouh he probably meant the phrase it still doesn't sound very nice.

Do you drive or have to deal with people in a customer service role? I do and I certainly agree with her that I too hate every day Americans. They can be real idiots.

I do like to grab pussy though, so I put up with some people.

Thanks, Donald.

Posts: 10201
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

PacificBeach88 wrote:

Who wouldn't hate "everyday Americans....aka....the 38% of America that supports Trump"? I would. I do.

No one is more full of hatred than liberals preaching tolerance. Thanks for exposing yourself (again). You are only for tolerance of people who agree with you.

salttee
Posts: 3149
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

wingman wrote:
The core that gets the vote out is racist, bigoted, misogynist, pro stupid and generally dreaming of living in the past where these traits could still provide a middle class income. And they don't any more. It's scary as hell but these red states getting squeezed in the middle better wake up and smell tomorrow.

You nailed it. I'll edit that a bit so it can stand on its own (outside this thread) and I'll use it elsewhere. That snippet presents the truth for blue collar America. It really doesn't matter how we got here; we are here and we are never going back.

Revelation
Topic Author
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Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

salttee wrote:
wingman wrote:
The core that gets the vote out is racist, bigoted, misogynist, pro stupid and generally dreaming of living in the past where these traits could still provide a middle class income. And they don't any more. It's scary as hell but these red states getting squeezed in the middle better wake up and smell tomorrow.

You nailed it. I'll edit that a bit so it can stand on its own (outside this thread) and I'll use it elsewhere. That snippet presents the truth for blue collar America. It really doesn't matter how we got here; we are here and we are never going back.

A similar theme can be applied to the Brexiters. Unfortunately the days where UK industry can provide middle class incomes for the masses are largely over (same can be said for US industry too). Those days aren't coming back, especially in the era where corporations have bought off the government to such a large degree that the government no longer works for the citizens, it works for the corporations and the 1%ers that control them.

The reason the EU had 'the free movement of people' wasn't due to some egalitarian idealistic urge, it was so that corporations could replace reasonably paid workers with poorly paid workers. The Brexit won't fix that long term. The root cause isn't EU membership, the root cause is corporate control of government.

afcjets
Posts: 3846
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Revelation wrote:
The root cause isn't EU membership, the root cause is corporate control of government.

Same problem in the US and will only get worse with Hillary. The Democrat party and especially Hillary Clinton, who along with her husband collect several hundred thousand dollars in "speaking" fees, are married to Goldman Sachs who run Wall Street.

Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 26983
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

afcjets wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The root cause isn't EU membership, the root cause is corporate control of government.

Same problem in the US and will only get worse with Hillary. The Democrat party and in particularly Hillary Clinton where she and her husband collect several hundred thousand dollars in "speaking" fees are married to Goldman Sachs who run Wall Street.

With regard to being cozy with corporations, both US parties are extremely guilty. Just look at what the typical Senator/Congressman does to get elected. It's all about kissing corporate asses. That's never going to change. Are you honestly suggesting that a Trump Administration would have reduced the influence of corporations in Washington?

I find it so funny that people are so focused on the Presidential election. If the Obama Administration proved anything, it's that the President has very little control over what goes on in Washington. Take for instance Obama's first two years. He had control of the Congress but his main legislative goal, "Obamacare", missed all the goals it had set out for itself. While many people think that's a good thing, again, my point is the President does not call the shots. If it was up to Obama, we'd have single payer by now. The goal was to reduce the ability of the insurance companies to control pricing of health care. The reality is we ended up with legislation that gave even more power to the insurance companies!

salttee
Posts: 3149
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Revelation wrote:
A similar theme can be applied to the Brexiters. Unfortunately the days where UK industry can provide middle class incomes for the masses are largely over (same can be said for US industry too). Those days aren't coming back, especially in the era where corporations have bought off the government to such a large degree that the government no longer works for the citizens, it works for the corporations and the 1%ers that control them.
The root cause of the demise of the old blue collar paradigm is modernity, not corporate corruption. Had the US and Britain, or the US and Europe, tried to freeze the developing world out of the industrial revolution, it would have led to something akin to a Vietnam type war on a global scale. It just wouldn't have worked. The writing was on the wall with MacArthur's leading Japan into the western sphere of political and economic reality; but it couldn't have been any other way. Japan was brought into the fold to bring stability to Asia, and of course Korea, Taiwan and everyone else got in on the action. The Japanese were the first to cause massive layoffs in the US steel industry, then it was Korea, and now China is blamed for putting Americans out of work. The post WW2 US dominance in manufacturing was an aberration, it could not possibly have lasted forever. But that is the "great" America Trump claims he will return us to; the blue collar types who pine for that to happen are truly lost souls. But of course no politician can explain this to them and ever hope to be elected again.

Revelation wrote:
The reason the EU had 'the free movement of people' wasn't due to some egalitarian idealistic urge, it was so that corporations could replace reasonably paid workers with poorly paid workers. The Brexit won't fix that long term. The root cause isn't EU membership, the root cause is corporate control of government.
It's the same on this side of the pond with the Latin immigrants, that's the reason we have 20 million Mexican and Central Americans here competing for what's left of the blue collar jobs. That's no accident, the borders were left open by design and now it's too late to reverse the trend.

I honestly think it would have been more humane to have tightened the southern border in the 50s and 60s before we stole so many of their ambitious and politically discontent young people for our labor force. If they had stayed home, one might fantasize that they would have forced changes in their home countries. But of course the cold war was on and the Russians would have sold them a bullshit bill of goods, so the situation was hopeless.

afcjets
Posts: 3846
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

PacificBeach88 wrote:
zckls04 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
I can't wait to see all of you Hillary freaks defend the email wikileaks released today where her campagain manager says she has begun to hate everyday Ameicans lol. Even thouh he probably meant the phrase it still doesn't sound very nice.

The phrase grasping at straws springs to mind.

Who wouldn't hate "everyday Americans....aka....the 38% of America that supports Trump"? I would. I do.

Her campaign manager says Hillary hates everyday Americans in regards to addressing HER supporters, not Trumps. She claims only half of his are deplorable.
Last edited by afcjets on Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

rfields5421
Posts: 6374
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

salttee wrote:
I honestly think it would have been more humane to have tightened the southern border in the 50s and 60s before we stole so many of their ambitious and politically discontent young people for our labor force. If they had stayed home, one might fantasize that they would have forced changes in their home countries.

I've watched the changes in the cross border traffic and in Mexico over the past 30 years.

In 1986 when I was transferred to Dallas - the vast majority of illegals working in Texas were partial year residents. They came across the border in spring, worked all summer, sent wages home to wife and kids, and returned home to Mexico in October or November. They lived three or four months each year with their families in Mexico. They didn't put up with drug dealers, gangs, 'cartels' making the homes of their children a war zone.

As it got tougher and more expensive to cross the border - those workers did the math. Realized it was cheaper to move the family to the US. Once established, the risk of standing out and being 'caught' was minimal.

That resulted in the smartest, brightest people leaving those towns and cities - and leaving them to the control of the undesirable elements.

I won't put all the blame for the 'cartel' ownership of many parts of Mexico on the 'tightening' of the US border - but a substantial part of that effect is due to the US efforts.

Another impact was the changes that President Reagan got passed with his 'tax reduction' laws. That made it possible for US corporations to replace US citizen blue collar labor with 'contract' labor - often non-US citizens.

This is the biggest job loss for the US citizens. Before Reagan, if a meat packing plant had illegals working in the plant - the plant manager and corporate owner were liable to INS fines, and possible criminal charges - if the employees worked for a 'contractor' - it was still the responsibility of the plant management to ensure all were legal to work in the US.

After Reagan's changes - the plant management / ownership has absolutely no responsibility, or right, to require / verify - that all contractor employees are legal to work in the US.

Before Reagan - most illegals worked on a cash basis in very labor intensive jobs.

Total - the vast majority of illegals work for contractors. They get paid by check, have Social Security and IRS withholding from their paychecks (yes they take the maximum amount of exemptions to minimize the FITW). The result is that Social Security and the IRS get billions of dollars each year - and never have to issue tax refund checks and will never have to pay social security benefits to those people.

The people in the US Congress screaming for a closed border know that the solution is very simple. Make it impossible for those without proper authorization to work in the US. Take them out of the plants, construction industry, etc - by requiring positive identification, and making the management of the facility/ job responsible. Stop the 'contractor' loophole. There is no need to 'close the border'. The need is to eliminate the jobs. Last year (2015) the US had a net negative migration from Mexico (not including Central/ South American illegals). More illegals moved back to Mexico than came across the border - because of the cutback in oil industry jobs in Texas. We don't need a wall to stop illegal immigration - taking away ability to work will do it better and cheaper.

The really funny part of the "We will build a wall" promise is that the project would be the biggest employer of illegals in US history.

Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 26983
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

rfields5421 wrote:
The people in the US Congress screaming for a closed border know that the solution is very simple. Make it impossible for those without proper authorization to work in the US. Take them out of the plants, construction industry, etc - by requiring positive identification, and making the management of the facility/ job responsible. Stop the 'contractor' loophole. There is no need to 'close the border'. The need is to eliminate the jobs. Last year (2015) the US had a net negative migration from Mexico (not including Central/ South American illegals). More illegals moved back to Mexico than came across the border - because of the cutback in oil industry jobs in Texas. We don't need a wall to stop illegal immigration - taking away ability to work will do it better and cheaper.

Very true. Al Capone wasn't busted by cops with guns, he was busted by cops with pencils. I remember reading articles in the press how cracking down on illegals by making employers check their status was so effective that the corporate powers that be pressured the government into de-staffing the people who were doing the checks.

zckls04
Posts: 2785
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:55 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

afcjets wrote:
PacificBeach88 wrote:
zckls04 wrote:

The phrase grasping at straws springs to mind.

Who wouldn't hate "everyday Americans....aka....the 38% of America that supports Trump"? I would. I do.

Her campaign manager says Hillary hates everyday Americans in regards to addressing HER supporters, not Trumps. She claims only half of his are deplorable.

Given that you've already demonstrated you understand the context of the remark, I'm not sure why you're flogging this dead horse.

And in answer to your earlier question, it's not at all like the Trump case. Deliberately misinterpreting a campaign manager, who in an email says Clinton dislikes the phrase "everyday Americans" and claiming it means she doesn't like actual everyday Americans is not even REMOTELY close to suggesting that somebody who boasts about how easy it is to commit sexual assaults might have actually done so.

The former is an obvious attempt to distort the facts, which you acknowledge the first time you mentioned it. The latter is merely a reasonable inference.

Hillis
Posts: 1307
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Fivethirtyeight now shows Hillary ahead in Arizona.

I read in the OP that the article says "can we please move on?" My answer is no, we can't, not until the election is over. Trump just doesn't need to be beaten here. He needs to be buried. The U.S. needs to reassure the world that we aren't going to elected a man who is out of his mind, who hates the entire world, let alone most Americans, and would possibly start a conflict if someone says something bad about him. He needs to lose bad, so that it can begin to bury the trash that has been this rightward movement of the GOP base towards Fascism.

MaverickM11
Posts: 18742
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

zckls04 wrote:
not even REMOTELY close to suggesting that somebody who boasts about how easy it is to commit sexual assaults might have actually done so.

...who runs a beauty pageant as his own personal grab bag, whose campaign is run by Ailes who used Fox News as his own grab bag...it's a bit of a pattern.

lugie
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Hillis wrote:
Fivethirtyeight now shows Hillary ahead in Arizona.

I read in the OP that the article says "can we please move on?" My answer is no, we can't, not until the election is over. Trump just doesn't need to be beaten here. He needs to be buried. The U.S. needs to reassure the world that we aren't going to elected a man who is out of his mind, who hates the entire world, let alone most Americans, and would possibly start a conflict if someone says something bad about him. He needs to lose bad, so that it can begin to bury the trash that has been this rightward movement of the GOP base towards Fascism.

The newest fivethirtyeight map looks amazing. Right now, she'd be taking AZ, her leads in NC and FL have solidified (both with >70% chance) and GA and AK are getting into tipping range.

However, complacency is the Democrats' biggest enemy right now, the key to success is still turnout.

Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 26983
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

I wonder if after the election Trump will claim he won, on the basis of acreage?

I saw the same old election map on the TV this morning and cringed, it really is misleading.

I started this thread mainly to point out cool infographics, so here are two more, sourced from http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/.

Gender gap, indeed!

versus:

Hillis
Posts: 1307
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

lugie wrote:
Hillis wrote:
Fivethirtyeight now shows Hillary ahead in Arizona.

I read in the OP that the article says "can we please move on?" My answer is no, we can't, not until the election is over. Trump just doesn't need to be beaten here. He needs to be buried. The U.S. needs to reassure the world that we aren't going to elected a man who is out of his mind, who hates the entire world, let alone most Americans, and would possibly start a conflict if someone says something bad about him. He needs to lose bad, so that it can begin to bury the trash that has been this rightward movement of the GOP base towards Fascism.

The newest fivethirtyeight map looks amazing. Right now, she'd be taking AZ, her leads in NC and FL have solidified (both with >70% chance) and GA and AK are getting into tipping range.

However, complacency is the Democrats' biggest enemy right now, the key to success is still turnout.

Time to put Utah in the "Tossup" column.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/8656 ... oters.html

Would like to see what Texas, Indiana, Georgia and South Carolina are looking like right now. If Trump continues to incinerate, we could be looking at the most one-sided election since Reagan beat Walter Mondale.

neutrino
Posts: 1536
Joined: Thu May 10, 2012 5:33 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

According to this "Trumpovsky" clown, the world will face a nuclear WWWIII should Hillary becomes US President.
Sit back and have a good laugh.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... SKCN12C28Q

afcjets
Posts: 3846
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

### Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

zckls04 wrote:
claiming it means she doesn't like actual everyday Americans is not even REMOTELY close to suggesting that somebody who boasts about how easy it is to commit sexual assaults might have actually done so.

The former is an obvious attempt to distort the facts, which you acknowledge the first time you mentioned it. The latter is merely a reasonable inference.

It is not reasonable, it is ridiculous. Just like when a guy says I can fck any girl I want, does not mean he sexually abuses women, it is nothing more than hyperbole, something Trump is notorious for.

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