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scbriml
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:20 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
So in other words, she wants to start a war with Russia.


Continually repeating the same nonsense doesn't make it true.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:14 am

OK...bringing this back to the US election...

The Clinton campaign is making an aggressive push into Arizona. Is it possible it will go blue?

Utah polls show statistically tied race between Trump, Clinton, and independent McMullin. Alaska also shows tied race with Clinton trailing Trump by 1. Texas is also more purple than it was before.

Looks like Trump is no longer even interested in campaigning but instead complain about how things are going bad and it's a rigged system.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
salttee
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:34 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
Looks like Trump is no longer even interested in campaigning but instead complain about how things are going bad and it's a rigged system.
This answers the obvious question: Is he just being theatrical or is he really stupid?

He could have been president if he would have just acted presidential starting a couple of months ago.
But as we've found out, this guy is really stupid, he just inherited his dad's money and business plan at the beginning of a fantastic boom in NY real estate.

He's going to be very surprised in a few months when he announces a press conference and Bretbart is the only one who shows up.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:38 am

Hillis wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
Will the next president fly in the VC-25 for their entire term? When is the new Air Force One going to be ready? Is it going to be a 748? Where will Trump store his 757?


Hopefully, Trumps sticks his 757 right up his a$$.


Maybe it will sold as part of a settlement if and when he is found at the very least, liable in his rape case now going to court. I am sure it will be settled out of court for this special person as happens very frequently for/ by moneyed people. :shock:
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:48 am

This one seems to be quite appropriate...

Image
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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seahawk
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:51 am

So true. the election is rigged, even dead people are called up to vote for the democrats.
 
salttee
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:24 am

seahawk wrote:
So true. the election is rigged, even dead people are called up to vote for the democrats.

Let me guess, you plan to beat that drum for the next eight years, right?

This is so odd, when I was a young man and a McGovern fan we were told by the right wingers that we were trying to destroy America, when all we were trying to do was end the war and promote social justice. At the time the right wingers really did love America in their own perverted way, but now people like you, the Trump crowd, really are out to destroy the United States.

You really do have a "if I can't have it my way let's burn it down attitude".

That's such a twist.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:36 am

No, I am just watching this election with a kind of pervert interest from communist Europe and I am just making sarcastic comments about Republicans who seem to be bend on destroying the US democracy in a failed bid to save it.
 
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777Jet
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:25 am

Max Q wrote:
trump and his movement of idiots is the biggest danger facing this country, greater than any terrorist threat, he will lose though.


Has Professor Allan Lichtman changed his prediction on who will win yet? Or, will he get it wrong for the first time since 1984?
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:27 am

The latest poll from Texas has Trump up by 3. I'm eager to see subsequent polls. Will they show a tighter race in Texas?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
afcjets
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:49 am

777Jet wrote:
Max Q wrote:
trump and his movement of idiots is the biggest danger facing this country, greater than any terrorist threat, he will lose though.


Has Professor Allan Lichtman changed his prediction on who will win yet? Or, will he get it wrong for the first time since 1984?


How on earth could anyone possibly have gotten 1984 wrong lol? Image
 
dragon-wings
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:16 am

There are Trump supporters who are crazy! They are believing Trump that the election is rigged and will start a civil war if Hillary wins.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 2418f13d98
Don't give up don't ever give up - Jim Valvano
 
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zckls04
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Wed Oct 19, 2016 4:06 am

777Jet wrote:

Has Professor Allan Lichtman changed his prediction on who will win yet? Or, will he get it wrong for the first time since 1984?


Predicting the president with 100% accuracy since 1984 sounds a lot more impressive than it actually is. Since we live in a two party system, and no third parties have ever really gained any significant traction, there are relatively few outcomes.

You're talking about eight elections, so if somebody predicting the outcomes were to pick their choices completely at random, you'd expect them to get 100% accuracy approximately 1 in every 256 times. Given the sheer number of people making predictions about the American elections, it's likely many of them have a 100% record.

Predictions like Nate Silver's are far more difficult to do, since they predict every race and every percentage rather than just a binary prediction. And what his predictions have consistently demonstrated is that generally the polls are pretty accurate. And that Trump is more likely than not to lose.
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seahawk
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Wed Oct 19, 2016 5:10 am

Allan Lichtman himself said that his model might be wrong this time due to unusual nature of the candidates.

https://pollyvote.com/en/components/ind ... ite-house/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... SKCN1251WM
 
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kasimir
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:33 pm

I have to agree with the OP that the election is over and anything else then a victory for Hillary will be a giant surprise. I am more surprised that Trump after all that is going on and he did and say still has that many support from the voters, even though most republicans have publicly distanced themselves from him.

The worst part is, that Trump is accusing that the media and system is rigged against him and ofcourse their is bias in the media, but he and only he is shooting himself in the foot by opening his mouth and talking crazy, fear-mongering, paranoid and outright lies 90% of the time. That totally discredits him an overshadows the 10% of the time where he has some really good points that no other politician dares to touch, but urgently need to be fixed!
Donald Trump would be better off, just to stay quiet, but that doesn't fit his character...

The long-term problem that I would be worried about is not Donald Trump, but since the bar is so low, that the republicans will come (maybe next time) with a candidate that will bring forward more or less the same issues as Trump, but without the crazy talk of Trump and a much more charismatic person. That candidate will win in a landslide against Hilary.
 
LittleFokker
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Wed Oct 19, 2016 4:07 pm

While I refuse to be confident about a Hillary victory until November 9th, I am getting excited about the Senate races.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... 6-forecast

I've been reading these updates daily. Up until about 3 weeks ago, Republicans were still looking very good to keep control of the Senate. It seems that the sexual assault claims have made a noticeable difference on key Senate races. Nevada, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire have swung back to the Democrats after Republicans held a lead. North Carolina and Missouri, once thought to be shoo ins for the Republican incumbents to keep are both now Democratic leaning. Having control of 52, maybe 53 seats looks very realistic now.

I wish 538 would do a forecast for the House, but I think there is too little quality polling in those races to make any kind of meaningful forecast.
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
LMP737
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:21 pm

LittleFokker wrote:
While I refuse to be confident about a Hillary victory until November 9th,.


Fear, ignorance and bigotry are powerful motivators. As I have said before Trump panders to all three. Which means I have this bad feeling we will wake up 11/9 and he will be president.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Thu Oct 20, 2016 3:17 pm

LMP737 wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:
While I refuse to be confident about a Hillary victory until November 9th,.


Fear, ignorance and bigotry are powerful motivators. As I have said before Trump panders to all three. Which means I have this bad feeling we will wake up 11/9 and he will be president.


The reality is that there is a lot of discontent out there. Witness the Brexit vote. The problem for the GOP is that Trump is a terrible candidate. The problem for both parties in the future is that he's shown that if you have a lot of fame and a lot of money you can become the candidate of a major party. I fully expect to see a lot more of his type showing up in the future, and if they are only somewhat less flawed than Trump then they have a good chance. Think of, for instance, how a somewhat better polished Ross Perot type would do in the next election cycle. Someone who had some actual business success, along with a populist message. I think it'd work, and I bet a lot of rich and somewhat famous people are all looking into the mirror and saying "I could be the next president!".
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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mayor
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:31 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
salttee wrote:
I don't think it's even that close. But Trump is going to do a lot of damage to the nation before the election and then even more after that. He always seeks retribution against those who have wronged him: this time it will be a whole nation.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a psych ward at some point in the future. Possibly the best thing for all would be for him to immigrate to Russia.


I am not trying to insult or even exaggerate, but Donald clearly suffers at least one kind of personality disorder. It is very clear, and if you have a background in psychology/psychiatry you would know what I am talking about.

I wonder why don't they run some medical/mental checks for all those nominated for general election.



If that was the case, I doubt if Hillary would pass, either.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Mathematically, The US Presidential Election Is Over!

Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:29 pm

kasimir wrote:
The long-term problem that I would be worried about is not Donald Trump, but since the bar is so low, that the republicans will come (maybe next time) with a candidate that will bring forward more or less the same issues as Trump, but without the crazy talk of Trump and a much more charismatic person. That candidate will win in a landslide against Hilary.


So I've been thinking about this and there are a few things that will happen in 2020.

First, White heterosexual Americans will continue to lose the size of their majority, if they are not an outright plurality by then. Second, the census (and thus redistricting) will happen in 2020. In 2010 the GOP focused on the offices it needed to win on a state level to gain control of the redistricting process in most swing states. This was a genius strategy for the GOP because it basically assured them control of the House no matter the popular vote for the next decade. Not only did they strategize well, but 2010 was an off-year election and those years tend to favor the GOP in general.

2020 is going to be an entirely different kettle of fish. One thing that Mr. Obama is going to do post-Presidency is work on redistricting and using the same political strategies that the GOP so masterfully used in 2010...but in a country that is less White, less Christian, and voting in a Presidential election.

Next, there is the general state of the GOP. In 2012, the GOP had a sit-down after their humiliating loss and came to a conclusion: "We need to tone down the crazy talk." A relatively stiff, straight-laced candidate like Mr. Romney got crushed by his own ridiculous statements that he had to make in the primary process in order to get elected. They thought that maybe if they toned down their rhetoric, they might be able to change the messaging to their base and not have such a crazy political message in 2016. And then LOL "THEY'RE MURDERERS, THEY'RE RAPISTS...GRAB HER BY THE MISS PIGGY, NASTY WOMAN!!!" and he roared to the top of the GOP and cinched the nomination with the GOP establishment pushing against him with everything they had.

So the question is: can the GOP tone it down for 2020 or is the continued demographic shift in America going to make the alt-right folks double down even more and behave in an even more loathsome manner? They may find that they need to split into two parties, which will lead to some initial pain (the short-long dilemma), but a more centrist party may attract some more centrist Democrats if they can get rid of the people who insist on making bigotry a political matter. Or they can keep on pushing as they have and become increasingly politically irrelevant. That would make me sad because I don't necessarily agree with everything the Democrats want to do and I do like having a fiscally and governmentally conservative counter-point.
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