Elon Musk says it will happen very soon. I still think it needs much improved technology in the United States. Europe is probably more willing to do it that the United States but I still do not think it will happen safely any time soon. Thoughts?

I think it will happen in 10 years time. Lot's of folks are experimenting with that. Tesla is semi self driving on highways already.

I hear on the TV that in the coming years everyone will be walking around with a pocket phone... can you believe that. How big are pockets going to be? I'll believe it when I see it.

I do agree Europe is a more technologically capable and open-minded region when compared to the USA. Technology companies are flocking there for that reason.

Funny that you say Europe is more technological capable, I would say the San Fransisco would more then rival that, along with some more hotspots lik Boston and the like.

I totally get the benefits of self driving cars hitting Britain's roads, God knows some of our drivers need replacing with a computer, but I'm not going to lie, I really enjoy driving.

I would like a car that could drop me off and drive away to park itself or would pick me up to take me home after a night out (I understand we're not at that stage yet!), but day to day I'd probably be on manual mode the whole time.

BlueberryWheats wrote:

I totally get the benefits of self driving cars hitting Britain's roads, God knows some of our drivers need replacing with a computer, but I'm not going to lie, I really enjoy driving.

I would like a car that could drop me off and drive away to park itself or would pick me up to take me home after a night out (I understand we're not at that stage yet!), but day to day I'd probably be on manual mode the whole time.

Probably you won't own a car anymore (your daily driver anyway), a robot car will pick you up, after you call it and drops you off at your destination., after that, the car will go and look for another costumer. Much more efficient system, because the car is much more in use. Less cars in use, more environment friendly because we don't need to produce as many cars which are idle more then 90% of the time, less cars to park (more space in cities), less accidents (robots are beter then humans at this).

If you enjoy driving, drive in the weekends on a circuit.

I think that will happen in 15 years time.

Dutchy wrote:

I think it will happen in 10 years time. Lot's of folks are experimenting with that. Tesla is semi self driving on highways already.

So are Mercedes, Infinity and BMW. The infinity system is apparently the best, far better than Tesla.

Kiwirob wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

I think it will happen in 10 years time. Lot's of folks are experimenting with that. Tesla is semi self driving on highways already.

So are Mercedes, Infinity and BMW. The infinity system is apparently the best, far better than Tesla.

Interesting times we live in . Mercedes did test out some busses not too long ago here in The Netherlands, on a traject specially designed for busses, between Schiphol and Haarlem.

The technical hurdles are being overcome.

The problem is accidents and the associated legal mess.

The other day there was a crash in front of my house, happens quite regularly as it's in a turn. This one was bigger than usual though, I had to help a woman climb out of her car, which was laying on the side. Turns out the driver had avoided a cat by sending her car against a parked SUV.

Would a robo-car avoid a cat in the same way ? What about a person ? Should it risk your life or even just your health or even just your money by slamming against something, or jumping from a cliff, or whatever, or should it brake in a straight line and hit the person ?

Aesma wrote:

The technical hurdles are being overcome.

The problem is accidents and the associated legal mess.

The other day there was a crash in front of my house, happens quite regularly as it's in a turn. This one was bigger than usual though, I had to help a woman climb out of her car, which was laying on the side. Turns out the driver had avoided a cat by sending her car against a parked SUV.

Would a robo-car avoid a cat in the same way ? What about a person ? Should it risk your life or even just your health or even just your money by slamming against something, or jumping from a cliff, or whatever, or should it brake in a straight line and hit the person ?

Unless its an inherent issue with the programming and design of the system how will the onus not be on the actual owner and operator of the vehicle? The initial lawsuits will be brutal to the loser but will quickly establish a precedent and we will move on from there. The auto manufacturers with their deeper pockets and huge legal teams will hopefully win and the burden will passed, rightfully, onto the actual user. Personal responsibility.

Plus, the sheer amount of terrible drivers out there (Asian women, the elderly, teenagers) will be largely eliminated so the actual amount of accidents will probably decrease.

But it can only be financial onus, and then insurance will cover that. Today if I run over someone I'm criminally liable, I can't see that being the case if I'm sleeping in my robo-car when the accident happens.

Aesma wrote:

But it can only be financial onus, and then insurance will cover that. Today if I run over someone I'm criminally liable, I can't see that being the case if I'm sleeping in my robo-car when the accident happens.

This is why IMHO self driving cars are further away than most people think. The technology may arrive quickly but the legal and cultural ramifications are likely to take MUCH longer to sort out.
Aesma, there is the opposite opinion that you would still be criminally liable because its your car, even if your not in it. That will take a long time to sort out. Hopefully the western countries, at least, will NOT leave it to the courts to sort out because this is so far outside our current legal framework they most likely can not.

Gemuser

Someone has to take the plunge and try to bring to market an autonomous vehicle. My gut feeling is that Apple is going to be involved; either as a partner with a major player like Mercedes or even on its own.

One huge benefit is going to be vehicle spacing. Tests in the USA have shown that cars can swarm together and form up 'road trains' with just a couple of feet or even less spacing between vehicles. That means more cars per mile of road, just think how far you hang back on a freeway or motorway at 70mph. Triple the number of vehicles could use the same infrastructure. Using the latest GPS and radar devices cuts the need for a driver out and will even contribute to lower fuel usage. If I use cruise control in my Vauxhall then the energy is kept fairly constant rather than the constant slowing and accelerating caused by my right foot. It actually shows instantly as the MPG increases using cruise.

Vehicles in a tight convoy will also use less fuel for the following cars.

seb146 wrote:

Elon Musk says it will happen very soon. I still think it needs much improved technology in the United States. Europe is probably more willing to do it that the United States but I still do not think it will happen safely any time soon. Thoughts?

I think it's just a bad idea, period. It's like getting rid of pilots on airplanes - sure it's possible, but who would get in one?

It is simply impossible to program in every contingency, especially in regards to road construction, people on the side of the road, children, non-standard lane layouts, etc.

Something else to think about: It's bad enough when the cars are brand new, but what about 10-15 years from now when these cars start being maintained and repaired by some guy called Bubba under a tree, or some kid who thinks that he can defeat the car's built-in respect for speed limits by reprogramming the thing.

The trial lawyers are already salivating. Whenever there is an accident today, there is most likely a driver responsible, and you can sue him. But most people aren't millionaires and there is only so much money you can squeeze out of some poor idiot who screwed up and is making a living at Walmart. With self-driving cars, every accident can be laid at the feet of a multi-billion dollar corporation, plus all of its parts suppliers.

By the way, who approved this? I don't recall being asked for my consent to share the road with these (un)guided missiles?

Hopefully all this will go away in a few years and be shelved as a bad idea.

Quite negative, @Dreadnought, I think it will be accepted by the majority of people, why not. The same with pilots.

Dreadnought wrote:

By the way, who approved this? I don't recall being asked for my consent to share the road with these (un)guided missiles?

Oh geee, have you been asked about everything, but they forgot to be asked about this? Come on, the world doesn't revolve around you, you know.

In the US some state agencies had to approve what has been going on. In France I know that autonomous vehicles are illegal, manufacturers have asked for permission to do test runs and have gotten it, but there is always someone behind the wheel that can take back control.

Aesma wrote:

In the US some state agencies had to approve what has been going on. In France I know that autonomous vehicles are illegal, manufacturers have asked for permission to do test runs and have gotten it, but there is always someone behind the wheel that can take back control.

same in the Netherlands. The Dutch government is very enthusiastic about this, so they encourage privet companies and the academia to experiment, including on public roads.

There is an operational test in the Netherlands, Wageningen university, https://wepods.nl/ --> https://wepods.nl/testen-op-late-avond/

It is far from perfect, but we are getting there.

The only way that any form of self-driving vehicles (cars, trucks, busses, etc) could possibly work in the modern world is if you also banned every single manually driven car.

Sure the computers can do a great job of applying rules and algorithms to programmed driving situations. But add manually driven vehicles, even a bicycle or heaven forbid, a pedestrian and it's simply not going to work. There will always be something the boffins didn't think of, some situation not programmed into the system and that's an accident waiting to happen.

Hell, if I saw a robo-car coming, I could actually force the robo-car into some sort of action simply by knowingly and using my brain, fake-out the robo-car with something that it perceives to be either dangerous, or a possible collision. You know that the robo-cars will be programmed to avoid a collision, that has to be a given. So what if I'm waiting at a light to merge into traffic. Right now I have to wait until there is an opening or someone gives me a break and waves me in. But if I see a robo-car coming along (hint... guy reading the newspaper behind the wheel) all I have to do is fake a movement forward a few feet and guaranteed the robo-car will slam on it's brakes to avoid what it perceived as potential collision. Now I have space to get in... why thank you brainless robo-car, ya just got faked out. I'm not saying I'd do it, but it's how manually driven cars and robo-cars won't be able to interact together.

IMHO, right now the robo-car designers and programmers are making the big assumption that vehicles/pedestrians/bicycles, etc follow a programmable set of rules and instructions and behave in an entirely predictable manner. But in the real world that is not the case. We all know that. And that's why IMHO there can and will never be a mix of both types of vehicles on the road. That leaves either banning all manual vehicles in one fell swoop, or designating specific roads as either a manual road or a robo-vehicle roadway. And that means double the infrastructure.

Not going to happen......

give it another ten years, trow in a little AI and there you go, an autonomous vehicle. I really can't imagine a world where we don't go down that road. Too many companies are working towards that goal. Too many benefits.

Dutchy wrote:

Quite negative, @Dreadnought, I think it will be accepted by the majority of people, why not. The same with pilots.

Until something happens.

Sorry, but I agree with the others who say that they're farther off than some think - simply for the legal matters involved. Not only do insurance policies have to be reviewed and rewritten, but traffic laws as well. What if the car is speeding, who's at fault? The owner? How can the owner be at fault of something they may no longer have control over?

Self driving cars are a lot more complicated than one thinks.

Dreadnought isn't being negative, he's being realistic.

Channex757 wrote:

Someone has to take the plunge and try to bring to market an autonomous vehicle. My gut feeling is that Apple is going to be involved; either as a partner with a major player like Mercedes or even on its own.

Knowing Apple though, they'll probably remove the gas tank nozzle and expect you to fill 'er up wirelessly LOL!

ACDC8 wrote:

Channex757 wrote:

Someone has to take the plunge and try to bring to market an autonomous vehicle. My gut feeling is that Apple is going to be involved; either as a partner with a major player like Mercedes or even on its own.

Knowing Apple though, they'll probably remove the gas tank nozzle and expect you to fill 'er up wirelessly LOL!

Ya, and an Apple car won't have speakers..... You'll have to buy the optional wireless ear buds if you or your passengers want music!!! LMAO!!!

Dreadnought wrote:

or some kid who thinks that he can defeat the car's built-in respect for speed limits by reprogramming the thing.

Not just kids, but hackers of all ages. People like to "hot rod" cars and that isn't limited to just North America. People will modify these vehicles regardless of what the manufacturer says. Many people will take it as a personal challenge to see what they can do.

Dutchy wrote:

Probably you won't own a car anymore (your daily driver anyway

Which will suck for a lot of people. A lot of people like to do things to their vehicle that personalize it. Things like custom wheels, paints jobs, sound systems, and custom upholstery are very poplar among the gear head crowd. Not owning a car may appeal to city dwellers where parking is an issue, but rural and suburban people have plenty of free parking. I certainly would want to be able to hook my camper or boat to my truck anytime I felt like it.

ContentCreator wrote:

I do agree Europe is a more technologically capable and open-minded region when compared to the USA

From what I have seen Europe has far more regulation on cars than most US states. Here in Michigan we have no inspection of any kind. You can put a plate on anything. Many cars on the road around Detroit wouldn't pass any inspection in Europe or even in California.

Dutchy wrote:

If you enjoy driving, drive in the weekends on a circuit.

There is more to driving than just being competitive.

Channex757 wrote:

My gut feeling is that Apple is going to be involved

WWJ, in Detroit, reported that Apple will continue with its software business regarding self driving cars, but has ceased work on creating a car itself. The report said that that a large number of people associated with that project have been laid off. That leaves them partnering up with someone as the only option.

Dreadnought wrote:

Something else to think about: It's bad enough when the cars are brand new, but what about 10-15 years from now when these cars start being maintained and repaired by some guy called Bubba under a tree

A very real problem... Some people will say that to solve that problem we will have a maximum age and or mile/kilometer law. I can tell you that will be met with massive resistance, particularly from the civil rights activists and the income inequality crowd. They will argue that only the wealthy can afford cars because the old ones are outdated and no longer allowed on the road. I would agree with them 100%. If you made regulations that stated they could only be repaired by the dealer or a certified shop you would get a similar argument that you are limiting the options for people who can't afford expensive car repairs. There are a lot of jobs car owners can do themselves, if they are so inclined.

photopilot wrote:

The only way that any form of self-driving vehicles (cars, trucks, busses, etc) could possibly work in the modern world is if you also banned every single manually driven car.

You'd have to include motorcycles too. That would upset a good chunk of people you probably want to avoid getting upset. Part of the joy of motorcycling is being out in the air and just driving around for the fun of it. Sure a lot of bikers ride their bikes to work or to run errands, but those same people just like to ride for pleasure too. Riding a self driving motorcycle would be boring.

Something else to think about is the lost revenue to states, counties and cities. A lot of money is made from tickets and other infractions like drunk driving. Sit in a local court for a couple hours and you'll see the money made off of these things. If everyone stopped speeding, running stop signs, drinking and driving, etc the world would be safer, but the government will have to collect money in some other way in order to meet their budgets. There has been talk in Michigan about taxing people who have electric cars at a higher rate because they are using the roads and aren't paying taxes on gasoline and diesel. If the state wants to go after these people, which are now just a handful in Michigan; they will want to go after all of us when we all have a self driving car.

falstaff wrote:

....

I feel that we look at the self driven car in 50 years, as we do at riding a horse today. But perhaps I might be wrong

falstaff wrote:

You'd have to include motorcycles too. That would upset a good chunk of people you probably want to avoid getting upset. Part of the joy of motorcycling is being out in the air and just driving around for the fun of it. Sure a lot of bikers ride their bikes to work or to run errands, but those same people just like to ride for pleasure too. Riding a self driving motorcycle would be boring.

That would greatly upset me. There's nothing finer than a nice twisty country road early in the morning and two good wheels under me.