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Hillis
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Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:41 pm

In two weeks, all the election ads on radio and TV will be gone, Thank God. And it'll be time for the day that the U.S. has been building up to for the last 18 months-the Presidential election.

Yes, things can still happen with two weeks to go, but this is the time, barring some incredible news or world event, where the votes are getting locked in. And not only is the Presidency up for grabs, so is the Senate, and possibly the House of Representatives.

Time to start making your predictions. I'll lead off, for obvious reasons.

Presidency: Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump. I believe the margin will be a little larger than we're currently seeing in most polls, but probably not as large as is showing up in like the NBC polls where Hillary is up 12%. I think she'll win by about 8% of the popular vote. She'll take Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Neveda among the "tossup" states. She just might pull off at least one other red state, possibly Georgia. And, right now, Texas is within the margin of error. If the Hispanic vote does get out in Texas, it could be an interesting night. But I think Trump barely takes Texas. She'll take upwards of 340 Electoral Votes.

Senate: The Democrats will take back the Senate. I think they flip Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which would give them, I believe a 52-48 advantage there.

House: Unless Trump goes into a massive free-fall, the GOP will hold on to the House, I believe, but barely. You don't get a sense of how the House is going, compared to the Senate, but it looks like the GOP majority there will be narrowed substantially.

The floor is open.
 
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seb146
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:14 pm

I predict marijuana will become legalized in California and that a Democrat will be our next senator.
 
wingman
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:18 pm

Despite now living in Oregon I predict that California will pass at least 4 conflicting propositions with less than 1% of the voting public understanding a single measure on the ballot.
 
ContentCreator
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:51 pm

I predict that things will continue to churn along just as they have been for the last 100+ years in the USA with not as much as a blip of change in pretty much everyone's life- regardless of who wins.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Paddy Power already paying out on a Clinton win:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/hillary-c ... ?r=US&IR=T
 
Calder
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:34 pm

I preferred to bet on whether or not certain words were said by either the moderator(s)/candidate(s). The 2nd debate won big for me with talk of Wikileaks, and Russia. Using Predictit, I'm up about 90% above my initial credit buy in. The only bet left is will Dems take the white house. I bought at .82, and "Yes" votes pay out at $1.00USD. I only stand to make another 5 or 6$, but it's still amusing!

It seemed pretty obvious who the winner would be from the start. If the GOP had chosen ANYBODY but Trump, it would have made my life a lot harder.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:36 pm

seb146 wrote:
I predict marijuana will become legalized in California and that a Democrat will be our next senator.


Do you also predict that the sun will rise the next morning? I'd say that's at slightly worse odds than your bet. ;)
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:09 am

Here are my predictions using RCP's map

Electoral College Vote
You will notice a lot of "likely" red states instead of safe. I'm going with polls, but keeping in line with history. Kentucky, for example, has a poll showing Trump leading by 4. Texas polls have tightened. While Arizona is also close, I think it will flip to Trump, but just barely. And I think there's enough momentum in Utah for McMullin to win.

Senate race
I predict 7 pick ups for the Democrats while keeping Nevada. Rubio gets to hang on, but barely.

Governor races
I predict MO, IN, and NC will go blue (two pickups). Vermont is barely leaning blue and there's mixed polling from NH so I'm taking a gamble and saying it will be blue. West Virginia would normally be Republican, but Jim Justice is fairly popular so the governorship will remain in Democrat hands. Montana is the only state where the incumbent is fairly popular and is from the opposing party, but given the state's red vote at the federal level, I think this will be a squeaker. All other races are safe.

Finally, the House will remain in Republican hands. Their majority, I predict, will dwindle to between 225-235 members, which could cause headaches for the next speaker as that gives leverage to the so-called Freedom Caucus to deny the votes necessary for a speaker.
 
ContentCreator
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:24 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
Here are my predictions using RCP's map

Electoral College Vote
You will notice a lot of "likely" red states instead of safe. I'm going with polls, but keeping in line with history. Kentucky, for example, has a poll showing Trump leading by 4. Texas polls have tightened. While Arizona is also close, I think it will flip to Trump, but just barely. And I think there's enough momentum in Utah for McMullin to win.

Senate race
I predict 7 pick ups for the Democrats while keeping Nevada. Rubio gets to hang on, but barely.

Governor races
I predict MO, IN, and NC will go blue (two pickups). Vermont is barely leaning blue and there's mixed polling from NH so I'm taking a gamble and saying it will be blue. West Virginia would normally be Republican, but Jim Justice is fairly popular so the governorship will remain in Democrat hands. Montana is the only state where the incumbent is fairly popular and is from the opposing party, but given the state's red vote at the federal level, I think this will be a squeaker. All other races are safe.

Finally, the House will remain in Republican hands. Their majority, I predict, will dwindle to between 225-235 members, which could cause headaches for the next speaker as that gives leverage to the so-called Freedom Caucus to deny the votes necessary for a speaker.


Do you think the Freedom Caucus/Tea Party will see a resurgence of popularity or do you think it will begin to decline after the election? I'm usually pretty good at seeing trends but this one is a bit mysterious to me.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:39 am

ContentCreator wrote:
[
Do you think the Freedom Caucus/Tea Party will see a resurgence of popularity or do you think it will begin to decline after the election? I'm usually pretty good at seeing trends but this one is a bit mysterious to me.

So far, the only FC/TP member to have lost their primary was Tim Huelskamp from KS-1. It remains to be seen if any of the tossup and lean red seats end up blue in the end. Usually, the FC/TP candidates are in safe seats and their only threat comes from within (primary).

So my guess is that the group, if intact, will still have leverage over who can become speaker. Paul Ryan is facing threats of "thou hast conspired against conservatives and must return the gavel" so I don't think Paul Ryan will emerge as speaker (IF he does, he'll be Boehner 2.0). I'd like to see a compromise speaker (centrist Democrat/Republican) who minimizes the influence of Freedom Caucus and Tea Party caucus and doesn't fear for their gavel or seat.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:16 am

I see this thread is off to a solid start.

I predict America loses, no matter who wins the presidency.
 
ContentCreator
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:28 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
I see this thread is off to a solid start.

I predict America loses, no matter who wins the presidency.


Just like its been the end of America when each president has been elected for the last 200 years. EVERY SINGLE ELECTION people are convinced its the end. The end of Democracy, the end of the constitution, the end of rights, the end of guns, baby killers, open borders, corrupt religious zealots, etc. The end of whatever.

Nothing is going to change for pretty much everyone. It never does. And that's probably a good thing. I don't want sweeping changes, I don't want a revolutionary candidate, I don't want total government reform from top to bottom. Do you know how upsetting to the world that would really be?

Everyone needs to just calm down. Things always are. Countries that have seen real upsetting elections are laughing.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:00 am

ContentCreator wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
I see this thread is off to a solid start.

I predict America loses, no matter who wins the presidency.


Just like its been the end of America when each president has been elected for the last 200 years. EVERY SINGLE ELECTION people are convinced its the end. The end of Democracy, the end of the constitution, the end of rights, the end of guns, baby killers, open borders, corrupt religious zealots, etc. The end of whatever.

Nothing is going to change for pretty much everyone. It never does. And that's probably a good thing. I don't want sweeping changes, I don't want a revolutionary candidate, I don't want total government reform from top to bottom. Do you know how upsetting to the world that would really be?

Everyone needs to just calm down. Things always are. Countries that have seen real upsetting elections are laughing.

Complacency is when we should start to worry.

And for the record, I'm not looking for sweeping changes. Our two major candidates are just garbage. Whether we like it or not they will symbolize our nation, and it's disgraceful that those are our choices.
 
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seb146
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:40 am

ContentCreator wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Here are my predictions using RCP's map

Electoral College Vote
You will notice a lot of "likely" red states instead of safe. I'm going with polls, but keeping in line with history. Kentucky, for example, has a poll showing Trump leading by 4. Texas polls have tightened. While Arizona is also close, I think it will flip to Trump, but just barely. And I think there's enough momentum in Utah for McMullin to win.

Senate race
I predict 7 pick ups for the Democrats while keeping Nevada. Rubio gets to hang on, but barely.

Governor races
I predict MO, IN, and NC will go blue (two pickups). Vermont is barely leaning blue and there's mixed polling from NH so I'm taking a gamble and saying it will be blue. West Virginia would normally be Republican, but Jim Justice is fairly popular so the governorship will remain in Democrat hands. Montana is the only state where the incumbent is fairly popular and is from the opposing party, but given the state's red vote at the federal level, I think this will be a squeaker. All other races are safe.

Finally, the House will remain in Republican hands. Their majority, I predict, will dwindle to between 225-235 members, which could cause headaches for the next speaker as that gives leverage to the so-called Freedom Caucus to deny the votes necessary for a speaker.


Do you think the Freedom Caucus/Tea Party will see a resurgence of popularity or do you think it will begin to decline after the election? I'm usually pretty good at seeing trends but this one is a bit mysterious to me.


I think enough Millennials are seeing what is happening and becoming interested in politics that the "freedom" caucus and tea faction will go away very soon and we will turn back to center.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 6:27 am

seb146 wrote:
I think enough Millennials are seeing what is happening and becoming interested in politics

...for about five seconds maybe, but then they go: "Ooooh, Walking Dead is on!" and forget all about it.

The young are not a stable/reliable voting block, and from what I can tell, there's little evidence to suggest that's changing.

Sad. Because if the youth ever showed up in a midterm or state election, like they did in 2008... then many of the more inane issues that disproportionately affect them (and the country at large) would be VERY quickly solved.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 6:43 am

Ok, I'll bite:

I predict that Donald Trump will win the Presidency, with 286 EVs to Sec. Clinton's 252. I'm guessing he wins the popular vote nationally by about 3.5% as well.

Trump will take one EV from Maine that has been trending his way, and of the toss-ups he'll get IA, PA, OH, NC, FL, and even NV. Depending on when they go to him, either AZ or ID will put him over 270, gaining UT, NV and AK before the night is out.

Of course we're still two weeks out and anything can happen, but given the momentum now swinging Trump's way - and firmly against the Democrats - I see the GOP retaining the Senate and the House as well.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:21 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
Our two major candidates are just garbage. Whether we like it or not they will symbolize our nation, and it's disgraceful that those are our choices.


Philosopher Joseph de Maistre said "Every nation gets the government it deserves." ;)

EA CO AS wrote:
I predict that Donald Trump will win the Presidency


Wow, I thought I was optimistic! :lol:
 
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777Jet
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:03 am

scbriml wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
I predict that Donald Trump will win the Presidency


Wow, I thought I was optimistic! :lol:


And I was thinking that the 30% chance I give him might be somewhat optimistic :)

Somewhat of a political swing against establishment politicians / trends has been gaining momentum globally for a few years now.

Joko Widodo in Indonesia. The re-emergence of the extreme right-wing Pauline Hanson in Australia. Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. And then Brexit (among other European examples). Donald Trump in the USA? Let's see.

In these new political times, the Brexit result taught us that the polls can get it wrong, and that polls underpinned by methodologies from the past can be way off.

I suspect that Trump's celebrity status will get more of the only somewhat interested voters to come out and vote on election day. I'm not sure if many of the only somewhat interested voters would come out to vote for Hillary Clinton. And given that voting is not compulsory in the USA, you have to consider who has the ability to get more people to come out and vote - and I believe that is Trump.

Anyway, either result wouldn't surprise me.

I think that the result might be closer than we might think

The election is Hillary's to lose right now though.

One final thought, if Hillary wins, I suspect that in the not too distant future Putin will try to 'test' her somehow...
 
tommy1808
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 11:06 am

777Jet wrote:
In these new political times, the Brexit result taught us that the polls can get it wrong, and that polls underpinned by methodologies


Nope. It told us that when it comes to polls, you need to read the small print aka the error margins.

One final thought, if Hillary wins, I suspect that in the not too distant future Putin will try to 'test' her somehow...


He probably will, since it appears he won´t get his plant into the white house......

Best regards
Thomas
 
727LOVER
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:38 pm

 
ContentCreator
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:57 pm

727LOVER wrote:
What do you guys think of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a42OO3MzdUM


Clearly this guy knows whats going on.
 
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777Jet
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:25 pm

727LOVER wrote:


I think Hillary's trolls won't like ;)
 
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Channex757
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:00 pm

727LOVER wrote:
What do you guys think of this:
<snip>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EO0JRk1X3FU

I think it's hilarious that a mouth breathing basement dweller advertises himself as an "expert".

I would like to know where those expert qualifications come from when he's barely even grown his first pubic hair. But...after all...its them pesky darned libbbruls and their biased media like Fox that's all to blame. Real patriots drinking Mountain Dew in their parents' converted cellars know the score. After all...ain't that just what all their other mouth breathing friends say?

seriously though; in the tradition of politics it'll probably end up being nothing like the polls say. My money is on a much closer result than the predictions. When there's a supposed clear result being indicated, it brings people out in a backlash against the leader of the pack. Trumpers will come out and vote just to poke Hillary in the eye.
 
Hillis
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:37 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Ok, I'll bite:

I predict that Donald Trump will win the Presidency, with 286 EVs to Sec. Clinton's 252. I'm guessing he wins the popular vote nationally by about 3.5% as well.

Trump will take one EV from Maine that has been trending his way, and of the toss-ups he'll get IA, PA, OH, NC, FL, and even NV. Depending on when they go to him, either AZ or ID will put him over 270, gaining UT, NV and AK before the night is out.

Of course we're still two weeks out and anything can happen, but given the momentum now swinging Trump's way - and firmly against the Democrats - I see the GOP retaining the Senate and the House as well.


How is the momentum swinging Trump's way? Seriously? In virtually every battleground, he is behind above the margin of error. In usually safe Red states, he's either losing (Arizona), it's literally a tossup (Georgia), or within the margin of error (Texas, Alaska and South Carolina).

He's NOT going to win PA. He's not going to win North Carolina, Ohio or Iowa. He might win Neveda. Florida is close, but Clinton will win that state as well.

That's a big problem with conservaitves these days, as they're so removed from reality that it is almost laughable. But when I want to laugh, I think again about it and realize how tragic and how dangerous it is to this country.

286 EV's :lol: :lol:
 
slider
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:01 pm

Well, I’m not the best political prognosticator when it comes to elections.

Moreover, like so many Americans, I’m disgusted and appalled that this is really what it’s come down to. Hillary and Trump. Good Lawd we are doomed. But forget that now….here’s my take: Trump wins. And may win handily.

His poll numbers in the polls that are generally reliable (Rasmussen among them) show him ahead in FL, OH, and several battlegrounds, and within striking distance (within the margin of error) in many others. This is after the barrage of October surprise media missiles aimed directly at Trump. Meanwhile, Hillary is coasting—she’s not campaigning, doesn’t speak much, has been so carefully handled and guarded—especially given her health—and is trying to coast this thing over the finish line. And the Hillary campaign machine is outspending Trump by an ENORMOUS exponential factor. And yet Trump isn’t going away….that is a harbinger. Don’t forget that absentee ballots are coming in stronger for Trump as well right now (most recent today was Butler County OH—some ridiculously higher % compared to last election).

Also factor in the enthusiasm gap—for as many people who are repulsed by Trump (and Hillary for that matter, she has the highest negatives of any candidate perhaps in history), his campaign rallies are rock star like crowds. Meanwhile, Kaine drew 30 people at a Florida event yesterday.

Most GOP people I know are either voting third party or holding their nose. But they aren’t staying home….especially not for down ballot races. I think most grassroots conservatives—true conservatives and constitutionalists—are working to preserve state houses and state legislatures, in spite of the incompetent RNC and the establishment GOP.

The Dems will do their usual get out of the vote stuff, and there will be a shitload of voter fraud, as usual, but if their people won’t go out and vote, that helps Trump too. And that turnout factor may be the real key, as it was with Obama twice.
 
slider
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:25 pm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... h_2016.pdf

And Trump is drawing 19% of the black vote in OH.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... h_2016.pdf

29% in PA.

I don't know how the black vote is projected in other states, especially toss-ups, but this should be VERY concerning for the Dems....a previously almost total reliable voting block has signs of deterioration.

If Trump wins all Romney's 2012 states and Florida, he's still 35 short of 270. That's a tough one to overcome.
 
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zckls04
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:39 pm

I can't help thinking of Karl Rove in 2012 when I read some of these posts. Optimism is one thing, but one can't ignore reality entirely.

Early voting looks pretty bleak for Trump- he's losing in Nevada, North Carolina and only maintaining a tiny lead in Fla.- less than Ronmey in 2012. Female and Hispanic turnout is up from 2012. I think either Trump receives another bombshell- maybe the purported video of him using the N-word- and his polls plummet even further leading to a 200-340ish landslide defeat, or more likely wikileaks keeps leaking the stolen emails, Clinton's poll numbers continue to slide slowly, and she ends up winning a modest victory- maybe 300ish EC votes to 240ish.
 
LMP737
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 5:12 pm

slider wrote:
Well, I’m not the best political prognosticator when it comes to elections.

Moreover, like so many Americans, I’m disgusted and appalled that this is really what it’s come down to. Hillary and Trump. Good Lawd we are doomed. But forget that now….here’s my take: Trump wins. And may win handily.

His poll numbers in the polls that are generally reliable (Rasmussen among them) show him ahead in FL, OH, and several battlegrounds, and within striking distance (within the margin of error) in many others. This is after the barrage of October surprise media missiles aimed directly at Trump. Meanwhile, Hillary is coasting—she’s not campaigning, doesn’t speak much, has been so carefully handled and guarded—especially given her health—and is trying to coast this thing over the finish line. And the Hillary campaign machine is outspending Trump by an ENORMOUS exponential factor. And yet Trump isn’t going away….that is a harbinger. Don’t forget that absentee ballots are coming in stronger for Trump as well right now (most recent today was Butler County OH—some ridiculously higher % comparedperhaps in history), his campaign rallies are rock star like crowds. Meanwhile, Kaine drew 30 people at a Florida event yesterday.

Most GOP people I know are either voting third party or holding their nose. But they aren’t staying home….especially not for down ballot races. I think most grassroots conservatives—true conservatives and constitutionalists—are working to preserve state houses and state legislatures, in spite of the incompetent RNC and the establishment GOP.

The Dems will do their usual get out of the vote stuff, and there will be a shitload of voter fraud, as usual, but if their people won’t go out and vote, that helps Trump too. And that turnout factor may be the real key, as it was with Obama twice.


Rasmussen is the only reliable poll, Hillary Clinton is not campaigning, Hillary Clinton is hidden is hidden away at undisclosed location hooked up to life support, absentee ballots favor Trump, and voter fraud will be rampant. Well you've repeated all the talking points on talk radio and Fox News.

Now my personal favorite is the whole voter fraud thing. It implies that if Clinton wins it will be due to massive voter fraud. It's interesting that the Republicans make so much noise about this. Considering the fact that the GOP controls the house, senate, the majority of governorships along with the majority of state legislatures. So if it is a big problem they seem to have benefited from it. I'm guessing they figure their supporters will just believe anything they say without bothering look at the facts.
 
727LOVER
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 5:36 pm

zckls04 wrote:
I can't help thinking of Karl Rove in 2012 when I read some of these posts. Optimism is one thing, but one can't ignore reality entirely..


I assume you are talking about THIS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBQvXZSnua4

I can't find it, but the other day I saw Karl Rove saying that he had LOST HOPE
 
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ER757
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:38 pm

Here's my bet - I bet most Americans will be very happy when election day is behind us and all the endless campaign ads, debates, robocalls etc end.

As for predicting the races:
POTUS - Hillary wins a comfortable EC victory with the popular vote much closer. The Electoral college has been out-dated for decades yet soldiers on.

Senate: ends up 50-50, let the fireworks begin in the next session

House - GOP holds on to their majority there
 
727LOVER
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:16 pm

Indiana officials trying to block 45,000 blacks from voting :o
https://thinkprogress.org/indiana-regis ... .rtc7euddg
 
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zckls04
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:58 pm

727LOVER wrote:
zckls04 wrote:
I can't help thinking of Karl Rove in 2012 when I read some of these posts. Optimism is one thing, but one can't ignore reality entirely..


I assume you are talking about THIS:


It was this I was thinking of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk

The title is a bit misleading- it was hardly a meltdown- but Rove remained convinced Romney could win an awfully long time after even Fox News had given up the good fight. Watching the hosts mocking him is quite good TV.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:10 pm

Hillis wrote:
That's a big problem with conservaitves these days, as they're so removed from reality that it is almost laughable. But when I want to laugh, I think again about it and realize how tragic and how dangerous it is to this country.

286 EV's :lol: :lol:



Here we go again; another left-leaning person who can't merely disagree - they have to resort to ridicule.

Thing is, while I think Trump will shock the world and win, I won't be terribly surprised if he doesn't. And if Sec. Clinton wins, I'll ultimately support her and hope for her to be successful as our Commander-in-Chief, even though I completely disagree with her policies and methods.

In other words, if Trump loses, I'll be certainly be disappointed, but I'll also go right on living my life; it won't bother me terribly.

You, however, and others like you, will be ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATED if Trump wins. The sheer hatred will eat you up.

And I'd be lying if I said I won't take immense satisfaction in knowing how torn up you'll be if Trump pulls this off.
 
Hillis
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Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:33 pm

slider wrote:
Well, I’m not the best political prognosticator when it comes to elections.

Moreover, like so many Americans, I’m disgusted and appalled that this is really what it’s come down to. Hillary and Trump. Good Lawd we are doomed. But forget that now….here’s my take: Trump wins. And may win handily.

His poll numbers in the polls that are generally reliable (Rasmussen among them) show him ahead in FL, OH, and several battlegrounds, and within striking distance (within the margin of error) in many others. This is after the barrage of October surprise media missiles aimed directly at Trump. Meanwhile, Hillary is coasting—she’s not campaigning, doesn’t speak much, has been so carefully handled and guarded—especially given her health—and is trying to coast this thing over the finish line. And the Hillary campaign machine is outspending Trump by an ENORMOUS exponential factor. And yet Trump isn’t going away….that is a harbinger. Don’t forget that absentee ballots are coming in stronger for Trump as well right now (most recent today was Butler County OH—some ridiculously higher % compared to last election).

Also factor in the enthusiasm gap—for as many people who are repulsed by Trump (and Hillary for that matter, she has the highest negatives of any candidate perhaps in history), his campaign rallies are rock star like crowds. Meanwhile, Kaine drew 30 people at a Florida event yesterday.

Most GOP people I know are either voting third party or holding their nose. But they aren’t staying home….especially not for down ballot races. I think most grassroots conservatives—true conservatives and constitutionalists—are working to preserve state houses and state legislatures, in spite of the incompetent RNC and the establishment GOP.

The Dems will do their usual get out of the vote stuff, and there will be a shitload of voter fraud, as usual, but if their people won’t go out and vote, that helps Trump too. And that turnout factor may be the real key, as it was with Obama twice.


Since there's never been much voter fraud I find your post laughable from that point only. The actual cases of voter fraud in the last 14 years has been like 31 cases, so it isn't a problem. But, then again, neither is assault by trans people in bathrooms, but that didn't stop conservatives from making an issue out of it.

Rasmussen for as long as I've followed it, has always leaned more toward the GOP, and has been consistently wrong with their projections. They're more an outlier than anything else. They did this with Romney in '12, how has his first term gone?

I'll rely more on fivethirtyeight.com, who has a very good track record. With Nate Silver's site, it shows on the battlegrounds, that Clinton is up in Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania (which really hasn't been a battleground for years), North Carolina and Florida. Trump shows ahead in Georgia, Missouri, Utah, Alaska, South Carolina and Texas.

Now, those states and who they're leaning to should tell you boatloads about where this election is headed. Look at the states that are "leaning" Trump that I mentioned-all usually reliable Red States, all in play because of the idiot at the top of the ticket.

And one thing that usually happens within the final two weeks is that even those who might waver from how they've been leaning, usually tend to go with what is considered the safer pick, and that is Hillary Clinton this time around.

The other very real possibility is that Hillary's support among minorities in states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and even a few others states might be under-represented in polls, as they usually are.

Clinton wins by about 7 or so percent, and takes at least 340 electors. The Dems pick up Senate seats in Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The House remains in control of the GOP, but barely.
 
Hillis
Topic Author
Posts: 1307
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:24 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Hillis wrote:
That's a big problem with conservaitves these days, as they're so removed from reality that it is almost laughable. But when I want to laugh, I think again about it and realize how tragic and how dangerous it is to this country.

286 EV's :lol: :lol:



Here we go again; another left-leaning person who can't merely disagree - they have to resort to ridicule.

Thing is, while I think Trump will shock the world and win, I won't be terribly surprised if he doesn't. And if Sec. Clinton wins, I'll ultimately support her and hope for her to be successful as our Commander-in-Chief, even though I completely disagree with her policies and methods.

In other words, if Trump loses, I'll be certainly be disappointed, but I'll also go right on living my life; it won't bother me terribly.

You, however, and others like you, will be ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATED if Trump wins. The sheer hatred will eat you up.

And I'd be lying if I said I won't take immense satisfaction in knowing how torn up you'll be if Trump pulls this off.


Ridicule? No, it isn't. It's reality. Conservatives are ignoring climate change. They ignore science in general. They ignore the fact that the world isn't what it was 50 or 100 years ago, or whatever era they pine for when they say "I want my country back". The world changes, but conservatives in the U.S. refuse to. They refuse to accept that not everyone is white, conservative, Christian and American. They ridicule, to this days, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, Muslims, other non-Christians, LGBTQ's, and anyone who doesn't fit their narrow stereotype of what and who is acceptable.

When they say "I want the nation the way it used to be", they're thinking of a time where WASP's weren't challenged by anyone over anything. They don't like the fact that the world is changing, and they are becoming a plurality in the U.S. So I'm not ridiculing. I am pointing out that this dream world you live in, and that includes what I see as a pretty unrealistic election prediction, is part of a pattern for conservatism. The ideology simply won't take a firm grasp on the real world, and that's dangerous when thinking of them in control of this nation.
 
apodino
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Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 11:07 pm

Stranger things have happened....but I would not be surprised if McMillan won Utah, and the electoral votes in Maine get split, and both candidates are left short of 270 and then it goes to the house. (Johnson could win NM as well) A lot of strange things are happening. One of the Hillary electors out of Washington has hinted he may be a faithless elector during the Electoral College and not vote for Hillary, which would cost her one electoral vote in Washington. The question become if this happens, would the house vote for Trump, or is congress so mad at him they end up voting for McMillan. And what really could make this strange is under this scenario, if the Senate flips, then you could have a split administration.

I know this scenario is farfetched and not likely, but given the way this election has gone, nothing would surprise me anymore.

One thing I am keeping an eye on that isn't getting much press is Proposition 69 in Colorado. This would create a single payer healthcare system in Colorado. Given what has happened with Obamacare, there has been a lot of calls on the left for such a system. Its on the ballot in Colorado. If it passes, this movement will have huge nationwide momentum, and we could see similar measures in other states. If it fails, then progressives will have a hard time pushing for this in the future. That being said, there are a number of left leaning groups opposed to this, including Planned Parenthood. (This measure is clearly creating strange bedfellows). Stay Tuned.
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 7011
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Wed Oct 26, 2016 11:50 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Hillis wrote:
That's a big problem with conservaitves these days, as they're so removed from reality that it is almost laughable. But when I want to laugh, I think again about it and realize how tragic and how dangerous it is to this country.

286 EV's :lol: :lol:



Here we go again; another left-leaning person who can't merely disagree - they have to resort to ridicule.

In other words, if Trump loses, I'll be certainly be disappointed, but I'll also go right on living my life; it won't bother me terribly.

You, however, and others like you, will be ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATED if Trump wins. The sheer hatred will eat you up.


THIS!
 
Hillis
Topic Author
Posts: 1307
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:19 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:01 am

777Jet wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
Hillis wrote:
That's a big problem with conservaitves these days, as they're so removed from reality that it is almost laughable. But when I want to laugh, I think again about it and realize how tragic and how dangerous it is to this country.

286 EV's :lol: :lol:



Here we go again; another left-leaning person who can't merely disagree - they have to resort to ridicule.

In other words, if Trump loses, I'll be certainly be disappointed, but I'll also go right on living my life; it won't bother me terribly.

You, however, and others like you, will be ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATED if Trump wins. The sheer hatred will eat you up.


THIS!



Since that's not going to happen, I'm not worried about it.
 
LittleFokker
Posts: 1546
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:25 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:09 am

apodino wrote:
Stranger things have happened....but I would not be surprised if McMillan won Utah, and the electoral votes in Maine get split, and both candidates are left short of 270 and then it goes to the house. (Johnson could win NM as well) A lot of strange things are happening. One of the Hillary electors out of Washington has hinted he may be a faithless elector during the Electoral College and not vote for Hillary, which would cost her one electoral vote in Washington. The question become if this happens, would the house vote for Trump, or is congress so mad at him they end up voting for McMillan. And what really could make this strange is under this scenario, if the Senate flips, then you could have a split administration.


I am paying close attention to the potential of McMullin winning Utah, however, I think it will end up being meaningless, as I can't see a scenario where Clinton gets less than 300 EC votes. But someone else winning a state would be noteworthy in of itself.

apodino wrote:
One thing I am keeping an eye on that isn't getting much press is Proposition 69 in Colorado. This would create a single payer healthcare system in Colorado. Given what has happened with Obamacare, there has been a lot of calls on the left for such a system. Its on the ballot in Colorado. If it passes, this movement will have huge nationwide momentum, and we could see similar measures in other states. If it fails, then progressives will have a hard time pushing for this in the future. That being said, there are a number of left leaning groups opposed to this, including Planned Parenthood. (This measure is clearly creating strange bedfellows). Stay Tuned.


Vermont passed a referendum a few years ago to switch to a single payer system (and the governor signed the mandate into law), however, the legislature could not agree on a plan (and I'm sure the insurance companies bribed the shit out of state reps) and single payer ended up not happening. I would have to read the text of Prop 69 to see if it really has any teeth that could override the lobbying efforts of the insurance companies. But if it passes, and CO successfully implements single payer, I will strongly consider moving there.
 
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777Jet
Posts: 7011
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:11 am

Hillis wrote:
777Jet wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:


Here we go again; another left-leaning person who can't merely disagree - they have to resort to ridicule.

In other words, if Trump loses, I'll be certainly be disappointed, but I'll also go right on living my life; it won't bother me terribly.

You, however, and others like you, will be ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATED if Trump wins. The sheer hatred will eat you up.


THIS!



Since that's not going to happen, I'm not worried about it.


Would you bet your life on it?

Or how about something that your mob on the left often proposes; would you delete your a.net account if you are wrong and Trump wins (given that you are so certain)?
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6720
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:35 am

Regardless of the winner, I will read this post the day after the election and laugh...much like I did the day after Brexit.
 
ContentCreator
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:09 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:36 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Regardless of the winner, I will read this post the day after the election and laugh...much like I did the day after Brexit.


Me too. I'm also looking forward to all the amazing documentaries and books that are going to come out in the coming year. They are going to be truly amazing.
 
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EA CO AS
Posts: 15975
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:54 am

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:16 am

ContentCreator wrote:
I'm also looking forward to all the amazing documentaries and books that are going to come out in the coming year. They are going to be truly amazing.


Agreed!
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8633
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:21 am

Here is some early voting data in some swing states.

MAINE....that's where the bulk of the population lives?

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/new ... ng-states/
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 14601
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:30 am

slider wrote:
and there will be a shitload of voter fraud, as usual

Interesting. Can you cite some specific examples?

Names of the convicted + the year the were found guilty, will do.
 
bgm
Posts: 2540
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:11 am

LAX772LR wrote:
slider wrote:
and there will be a shitload of voter fraud, as usual

Interesting. Can you cite some specific examples?

Names of the convicted + the year the were found guilty, will do.



He read it on Facebook, silly! What more proof do you need? ;)
 
coolian2
Posts: 2483
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2006 3:34 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:34 am

There's no voter fraud if Trump wins, despite polling miles behind and getting worse.

There's definitely voter fraud if Clinton wins, despite stomping Donny in the polls.

Yeah.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14893
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:07 am

bgm wrote:
He read it on Facebook, silly! What more proof do you need? ;)


Well, with enough unwillingness to fact check anything, you can keep lots of bullshit alive...

I guess we will see tons more of what we already had 2012:

http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/2012fraud.asp

And while totally easy to check and debunk, there is still "Media" blasting that bullshit out into the internet: http://www.renewamerica.com/columns/miles/160724

best regards
Thomas
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 17808
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:40 am

While not making a prediction either way, I'm proclaiming myself a winner in this. As an American living abroad, and keeping my salary under $82K, I won't be paying taxes toward either of these jokers when they're elected. :D
 
ltbewr
Posts: 16142
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Two Weeks Out: Time To Start Placing Your Bets

Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:16 am

I see a 4-5% margin of winning by Hillary Clinton, a narrow Electoral College vote, Ohio, PA and FL to be very close in votes. I hope we don't have 2000 election situation, but Trump could cause large challenges if narrowly (1% or less) loses in any of those states, enough to narrowly lose the EC vote.
The Democrats will take back control of the Senate by 1-2 seats.
The Democrats will gain Congressional seats, but the Republicans will still control by a significant margin.
The 2-party control will continue, as will each party's hate for each other, battle for control and making life miserable for the next President. Gridlock will continue, the corporations, the rich and certain political interest groups will continue to have too much control of our politicians.

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