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Hillis
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Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:15 pm

Time to put up your predictions: who wins what state, total Electoral count, and you can even guess the margin of victory. And, if you like, maybe throw in the Senate races as well.

OK, I guess I start:

Hillary Clinton: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii. Total of 352 Electoral Votes.

Donald Trump: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah (barely beating Evan McMullin), Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Alaska. Total of 186 Electoral Votes.

Popular Vote: Clinton wins by 4 1/2% of the popular vote.

Senate: Democrats pick up Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Republicans barely hold on to Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina seats. Democrats take control of the Senate.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:38 pm

Hillary will win, She will carry Florida and NC.
I think her margin will be 3-6%. I think the polls are not going to reflect the general turnout very well, especially in states such as NC and Florida.

I think the GOP loses NC in the senate race. People are pissed off in NC over HB2, redistricting, and the Voters rights act, , and it will cost the GOP the Governor's mansion as well.
 
apodino
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:42 pm

Hillis wrote:
Time to put up your predictions: who wins what state, total Electoral count, and you can even guess the margin of victory. And, if you like, maybe throw in the Senate races as well.

OK, I guess I start:

Hillary Clinton: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii. Total of 352 Electoral Votes.

Donald Trump: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah (barely beating Evan McMullin), Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Alaska. Total of 186 Electoral Votes.

Popular Vote: Clinton wins by 4 1/2% of the popular vote.

Senate: Democrats pick up Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Republicans barely hold on to Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina seats. Democrats take control of the Senate.


I do think Hillary will win, but I also think Trump wins Ohio and Florida. Which gets him to 233. That will give Hillary 304 electoral votes. (I took away one in Washington because one of Hillarys electors has already vowed he will be a faithless elector and not vote for her.) It will be close though. I do think North Carolina may go red based on talking to lots of people I know in the state who want to stick it to the ncaa.

In the senate, republicans will hold onto Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire and I believe will pick up Nevada. Democrats pick up Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Missouri and Illinois. That could get us to 50-50. There is usually one surprise though, not sure what it will be.

I also predict that North Carolinas Governors mansion will flip based on the poor way McCrory handed SB2, even though a lot of people are pissed off at the elites over their treatment of the state in the wake of it.

I do predict after the election there will be less gridlock in the senate. I say this because Chuck Schumer takes over the democratic leadership role. It is said he and McConnell have a great working relationship similar to Bob Dole and George Mitchell. Harry Reid didn't seem to have a good relationship with anyone. So I have hope there. The question is how well would Paul Ryan work with Chuck Schumer, not to mention any body elected to the senate. That being said I don't think Hillary or Trump will be able to ram anything through congress, and there will have to be compromise. Even though I don't like Hillary and would never vote for her, I do feel she is more likely to compromise with Congress than Trump and will do so. Obama did very little of it in his time in office. For all his flaws, Bill was a master of it in his time. The only issue I see causing trouble is the Supreme Court. I don't see republicans blocking nominees, but if more Ginsburgs are nominated, I do think they will just be voted down by the senate.

All in all, even though we are going to elect an unqualified person to the White House, as you can see I do have reasons to be optimistic going forward.
 
727LOVER
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:43 pm

Arizona -HILLARY
Colorado - HILLARY
Florida - HILLARY
Georgia - TRUMP
Iowa - TRUMP
Maine - lone district for Trump
Michigan - HILLARY
Minnesota - HILLARY
Nevada - HILLARY
New Hampshire - HILLARY
New Mexico - HILLARY
North Carolina - HILLARY
Ohio - HILLARY
Pennsylvania - HILLARY
Utah - TRUMP
Virginia - HILLARY
Wisconsin - HILLARY


HILLARY 351 TRUMP 187
_____________________________________

Popular vote

HILLARY 48%
TRUMP 42%
BERNIE (write-in) 2%
JOHNSON 6%
STEIN 2%
_________________________________________

UTAH :

TRUMP 37%
HILLARY 24%
MCMULLIN 31 %
OTHERS 8%
_______________________________________


SENATE

Dems pick-up New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Wisconsin
Dems hold Nevada
Reps hold Missouri, Indiana
North Carolina TOO CLOSE TO CALL

____________________________________________



HOUSE

Dems pick-up 11
 
727LOVER
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:51 pm

Looks like Hillis and I have called th EC and the Senate the same! The one difference, he gave ALL of Maine to Hillary, I gave her 3 of the 4 electoral votes


I couldn't figure out how to put it in here...but the best way to do it is go to

http://www.270towin.com

create your own map...and then paste it in here
 
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casinterest
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:55 pm

my map

http://www.270towin.com/maps/o3Q88

Just make sure you click on share your map and it will give you a link like mine
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:56 pm

My "Realistic" prediction:
Image

My "Hope Springs Eternal" Prediction:
Image

My "OMG Everything Blew Up!" Prediction:
Image
 
727LOVER
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:22 pm

casinterest wrote:
Just make sure you click on share your map and it will give you a link like mine

OK...here's mine

http://www.270towin.com/maps/gx88D
 
Hillis
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:25 pm

States that Trump will take that will be really close: Utah, Alaska, Texas, Georgia and South Carolina, Iowa.

States that Clinton will take that will be close: Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina.
 
Hillis
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:29 pm

Somewhere along the line, I shorted Hillary 3 Electors, as he total should be 355. Sorry about that.
 
Hillis
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:30 pm

DocLightning wrote:
My "Realistic" prediction:
Image

My "Hope Springs Eternal" Prediction:
Image

My "OMG Everything Blew Up!" Prediction:
Image


Your third may, the OMG one, shows just how narrow Trump's path to a victory is. It's almost impossible. It should be impossible if there weren't so many idiots in this nation.
 
727LOVER
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:19 am

Maybe I should change my prediction on North Carolina after reading this:

http://us2.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f31 ... e4b9a8fb19

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... rking.html
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:13 am

I have no prediction, just a fervent hope that justice will come to the US again, economically and socially with all prospering and able to earn a living and live the American dream as I did. I have faith that we are not all brain dead and will elect Hillary Clinton. The lesser of two evils for sure. That is our choice, sadly.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:35 am

WarRI1 wrote:
I have no prediction, just a fervent hope that justice will come to the US again, economically and socially with all prospering and able to earn a living and live the American dream as I did.


That's my hope, too. In this weird election, neither of the two could possibly get elected if the other candidate was... popular. Both candidates can be criticized with lots of justification.

This election echoes the Harry Potter novels... "Neither can live while the other survives." And whoever gets elected, the US will get a nightmare. The biggest freakshow ever; every day Congress is not on holiday.

A fair coin toss decided that I'm in favor of Trump, though I have no reason to support him. :evil: :evil: :evil:


David
 
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vhqpa
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:56 am

Image
 
Hillis
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:59 am

flyingturtle wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
I have no prediction, just a fervent hope that justice will come to the US again, economically and socially with all prospering and able to earn a living and live the American dream as I did.


That's my hope, too. In this weird election, neither of the two could possibly get elected if the other candidate was... popular. Both candidates can be criticized with lots of justification.

This election echoes the Harry Potter novels... "Neither can live while the other survives." And whoever gets elected, the US will get a nightmare. The biggest freakshow ever; every day Congress is not on holiday.

A fair coin toss decided that I'm in favor of Trump, though I have no reason to support him. :evil: :evil: :evil:


David


Wow, voting for POTUS on the toss of the coin. Talk about dumbing-down Democracy.
 
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777Jet
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:00 am

I predict that the next POTUS will be assassinated before the middle of next year regardless of which one it is.
 
Hillis
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:02 am

727LOVER wrote:
Maybe I should change my prediction on North Carolina after reading this:

http://us2.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f31 ... e4b9a8fb19

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... rking.html


I'll go with Nate Silver on this one, latest on 538 now shows Clinton up in Florida, Nevada and North Carolina. Guy has a very good track record, and I will take his word over anyone else's right now.

And I still think once the metro areas in Ohio vote, Clinton will take Ohio.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:21 am

777Jet wrote:
I predict that the next POTUS will be assassinated before the middle of next year regardless of which one it is.


A very common refrain after Obama was elected. I experienced the Kennedy Assassination days, the fear, the plots and theories, the nightmare funeral. Not wise to speak of such. Dangerous to our country. I would never utter such words.
 
salttee
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:25 am

Hillis wrote:
Wow, voting for POTUS on the toss of the coin. Talk about dumbing-down Democracy.

It wasn't decided on a coin toss - he bought into Trump's bullshit paradigm of "crooked Hillary".
He actually believes it.
 
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zckls04
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:32 am

777Jet wrote:
I predict that the next POTUS will be assassinated before the middle of next year regardless of which one it is.


They said that about Obama. People will get over it though.
 
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akiss20
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:39 am

Hillis wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
Maybe I should change my prediction on North Carolina after reading this:

http://us2.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f31 ... e4b9a8fb19

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... rking.html


I'll go with Nate Silver on this one, latest on 538 now shows Clinton up in Florida, Nevada and North Carolina. Guy has a very good track record, and I will take his word over anyone else's right now.

And I still think once the metro areas in Ohio vote, Clinton will take Ohio.


The model shows her up in those states, but not by much. That is how probabilities work. From the man's own mouth

"As a lot of you noticed, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. We don’t think that’s a particularly meaningful metric, because the forecasts are probabilistic — Clinton’s chances of winning Florida increased to 54 percent from 48 percent, for instance, which is nontrivial but not an especially large change. Still, we know it’s something a lot of readers follow. It’s unlikely that any further states will flip to Clinton in our final forecast, as she’s too far behind in Ohio, the next-closest state.1 It’s possible that Florida and North Carolina could flip back to Trump by tomorrow morning, though probably not Nevada, where Clinton’s lead is a bit larger."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... -converge/

I obviously hope she does take all those states, but just because the probabilities flipped from 48-52 to 52-48 does not mean that they are all of a sudden a promised win. They are still quite contentious
 
YZF101
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:58 am

salttee wrote:
Hillis wrote:
Wow, voting for POTUS on the toss of the coin. Talk about dumbing-down Democracy.

It wasn't decided on a coin toss - he bought into Trump's bullshit paradigm of "crooked Hillary".
He actually believes it.



I never thought that probabilities and possibilities were commonly known as bullshit. Guess you went to one of those closed schools. It's hard to feel sorry for people such as yourself, but that too is part of life - or is that known as bullshit to you as well?

I do feel for your country though - intolerance seems to reign supreme, and will continue. 8 years of Obama, and the possibility of 4 with Hillary. But please, do keep your diseased politics within your own borders. Don't go spreading your hate and intolerance elsewhere, please.

Forward Ho!

lol
 
YZF101
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:00 am

777Jet wrote:
I predict that the next POTUS will be assassinated before the middle of next year regardless of which one it is.


That was uncalled for - sheesh.

The pen is mightier than the sword, so go use your pen in the votiing booth.
 
salttee
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:12 am

YZF101 wrote:
I never thought that probabilities and possibilities were commonly known as bullshit. Guess you went to one of those closed schools. It's hard to feel sorry for people such as yourself, but that too is part of life - or is that known as bullshit to you as well?

I do feel for your country though - intolerance seems to reign supreme, and will continue. 8 years of Obama, and the possibility of 4 with Hillary. But please, do keep your diseased politics within your own borders. Don't go spreading your hate and intolerance elsewhere, please.

Forward Ho!

lol
What does all that mean in English?
 
YZF101
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:23 am

salttee wrote:
YZF101 wrote:
I never thought that probabilities and possibilities were commonly known as bullshit. Guess you went to one of those closed schools. It's hard to feel sorry for people such as yourself, but that too is part of life - or is that known as bullshit to you as well?

I do feel for your country though - intolerance seems to reign supreme, and will continue. 8 years of Obama, and the possibility of 4 with Hillary. But please, do keep your diseased politics within your own borders. Don't go spreading your hate and intolerance elsewhere, please.

Forward Ho!

lol
What does all that mean in English?



lol. Does "good luck" fit into your vocabulary? That pretty much sums it up I think.
 
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Adipasquale
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:30 am

Here's mine, not predicting anything too out of the ordinary.
Image
This is my idea of Clinton's best case-scenario:
Image
And Trump's best case-scenario, just getting to 270 in the EC:
Image
EDIT: I probably underestimated Trump's "good" night, I wouldn't be completely shocked if he took Michigan and/or Wisconsin as well.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:51 am

Hillis wrote:
I'll go with Nate Silver on this one, latest on 538 now shows Clinton up in Florida, Nevada and North Carolina. Guy has a very good track record, and I will take his word over anyone else's right now..


... and he is correcting all polls by 1.9% in Trump's favor before feeding it into his model, so he includes a quite significant polling error in Clintons favor already.

Best regards
Thomas
 
bmacleod
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:50 pm

Ohio will be watched very closely.

Trump is currently leading polling by 3-4 points.

Senator Kerry was leading by around 3 points in polling up to election day 2004. President Bush ended up winning Ohio by 150,000 votes.

At least the country will go with divided government rather than winner take all.

We saw what happens when that happens....

Bush 2004
Bill Clinton 1992
Obama 2008

George HW Bush in 1988 won with increased DEM wins in Congress. Same with Bill Clinton in 1996 - GOP increasing majority in Congress.

Both of those terms were considered to be very productive.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:13 pm

My prediction, in line with Sabato's prediction.

Image

Senate:
Image

House: Over 200 seats for Democrats, but still short of a majority.

Governor: Democrats keep MO and WV, GOP keeps IN, GOP picks up VT, Democrats pick up NC. No net change.
 
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777Jet
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:21 pm

zckls04 wrote:
777Jet wrote:
I predict that the next POTUS will be assassinated before the middle of next year regardless of which one it is.


They said that about Obama. People will get over it though.


Was Obama as disliked as these two? These two are the most disliked candidates in history, no? Was the nation as divided back then? A lot of people don't like Hillary, including many, many, many irredeemable deplorables. The GOP don't like Trump and no doubt would prefer Pence to take over. This has been one nasty election and I fear that things could easily get worse. Hope not though.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:27 pm

salttee wrote:
It wasn't decided on a coin toss - he bought into Trump's bullshit paradigm of "crooked Hillary".
He actually believes it.


My mind turned against Clinton a long time ago. It was when I read up on the Lewinsky affair, and Clinton's pardon for his cozy friend, Marc Rich. Hillary has, to my knowledge, never ever issued a statement about the morality of lying under oath, and using presidential powers to help out a billionaire friend.

I'm convinced since a long time that Clinton is not interested in morality, in thinking about right or wrong, but only in her own career. And these are the most dangerous people - they do anything to amass power.

And I've not yet spoken about the Clinton Foundation, which takes questionable payments from various governments and industries. Heck, if you want to improve the world - there are much more sensible organizations to donate money to. Amnesty International, for example. But not the charity of a (probable) future US president.

Do you see that I have nothing positive to tell about Trump? He's not acceptable either.

I would not have voted for any candidate in this election. If Trump is elected, then that's our fate. If Clinton gets elected by 280 or 300 votes, then Sanders would have won by at least 330. That's our fate, and the Democrats are not innocent. Trump has only a chance because Clinton carries so much needless weight with her. The e-mail server, the foundation, her close ties to Wall Street...

Hillis wrote:
Wow, voting for POTUS on the toss of the coin. Talk about dumbing-down Democracy.


Where did I say that I'm voting?


David
 
Hillis
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:48 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
salttee wrote:
It wasn't decided on a coin toss - he bought into Trump's bullshit paradigm of "crooked Hillary".
He actually believes it.


My mind turned against Clinton a long time ago. It was when I read up on the Lewinsky affair, and Clinton's pardon for his cozy friend, Marc Rich. Hillary has, to my knowledge, never ever issued a statement about the morality of lying under oath, and using presidential powers to help out a billionaire friend.

I'm convinced since a long time that Clinton is not interested in morality, in thinking about right or wrong, but only in her own career. And these are the most dangerous people - they do anything to amass power.

And I've not yet spoken about the Clinton Foundation, which takes questionable payments from various governments and industries. Heck, if you want to improve the world - there are much more sensible organizations to donate money to. Amnesty International, for example. But not the charity of a (probable) future US president.

Do you see that I have nothing positive to tell about Trump? He's not acceptable either.

I would not have voted for any candidate in this election. If Trump is elected, then that's our fate. If Clinton gets elected by 280 or 300 votes, then Sanders would have won by at least 330. That's our fate, and the Democrats are not innocent. Trump has only a chance because Clinton carries so much needless weight with her. The e-mail server, the foundation, her close ties to Wall Street...

Hillis wrote:
Wow, voting for POTUS on the toss of the coin. Talk about dumbing-down Democracy.


Where did I say that I'm voting?


David


If, after all that, you're not voting, then you're more ignorant than who you're leaning towards. But, if you're indeed ignorant enough to vote for Trump, just stay at home.

You're using something that happened 30 years ago to make a decison on voting in 2016? The height of ignorance.
 
Hillis
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:59 pm

Was just reading Nate Silver's latest on the vote at fivethirtyeight.com, and while he says that Trump has a slim chance, most paths are showing Hillary will win.

Silver shows Clinton with a 71% chance to win, even losing Ohio and Iowa. He also is predicting that Clinton's popular vote margin will be around 3.6%. He does not there's a margin of error of +/- 3%. As he points out, that even if the 3% error moves against Hillary, she should still win. He also notes that if that 3% moves against Trump, then she wins big.

I still think the polls have under-estimated the Hispanic turnout in states like Florida and Arizona, and a few others. And I believe that President Obama has rallied a lot of African-Americans as well to vote for Hillary. I still think her margin will be more than 4% with well over 300 Electors.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:49 pm

Hillis wrote:
Was just reading Nate Silver's latest on the vote at fivethirtyeight.com, and while he says that Trump has a slim chance, most paths are showing Hillary will win.


Nate Silver's model uses a T-tailed distribution that tends to work better in close elections. However, in not-so-close elections it tends to overly favor the underdog. A normal distribution (that's a statistical term, not a value judgement) works better in less competitive elections like this one.

This is why 538's predictions have been so far off from the other predictors. I'm afraid that this election is going to hurt his credibility a lot.
 
LittleFokker
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:53 pm

Trump doesn't even trust his own wife to vote for him. Privacy schmivacy:

http://usuncut.com/politics/photo-day-t ... as-ballot/
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:54 pm

Hillis wrote:
You're using something that happened 30 years ago to make a decison on voting in 2016? The height of ignorance.


It's your way of thinking which enabled the Dems to nominate a person which can still lose against an otherwise hopeless buffoon like Trump.

In any other election before, a guy like Trump would not have enjoyed a 28% chance of winning.

David
 
Hillis
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:57 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
Hillis wrote:
You're using something that happened 30 years ago to make a decison on voting in 2016? The height of ignorance.


It's your way of thinking which enabled the Dems to nominate a person which can still lose against an otherwise hopeless buffoon like Trump.

In any other election before, a guy like Trump would not have enjoyed a 28% chance of winning.

David


My way of thinking is that for 30 years, the GOP has tried to pin something, anything on the Clinton's and can't find anything. That's because there's nothing there. Your way of thinking is to gullibly swallow their partisan bullshit.
 
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lugie
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:47 pm

Hillis wrote:
I still think the polls have under-estimated the Hispanic turnout in states like Florida and Arizona, and a few others. And I believe that President Obama has rallied a lot of African-Americans as well to vote for Hillary. I still think her margin will be more than 4% with well over 300 Electors.


I'm really impressed with the turnout in FL until now, there've already been more early votes cast than total votes in the entire election of 2012. That should generally be a good sign for Democrats but again nothing is decided.

I just feel like that if HRC actually manages to take FL the race is more or less done, she could even afford to lose PA (which I consider (hoping) highly unlikely)
 
Veetwo
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:50 pm

I just voted. In and out in 5 minutes.

Hillary will win.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:09 pm

flyingturtle wrote:

In any other election before, a guy like Trump would not have enjoyed a 28% chance of winning.

David


Only FiveThirtyEight had it that high and their t-tailed distribution was the wrong choice, IMO. A Normal distribution is the right choice and that makes his odds <5%
 
727LOVER
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:02 pm

I'm nervous. :o
 
DDR
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:06 pm

I voted. Took 10 minutes tops. Good luck America.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:07 pm

727LOVER wrote:
I'm nervous. :o


Me too.....
 
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pvjin
Posts: 3586
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:52 pm

Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:11 pm

If Clinton wins I hope she will take some serious action against climate change, that's pretty much the only positive thing I can think of her victory in comparison to Trump's.

Not holding my breath though.
 
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Braybuddy
Posts: 6973
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:14 pm

Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:12 pm

Very exciting election, and I'm watching CNN and waiting . . . It really does seem knife-edge! Trump starting off well in Kentucky
 
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Adipasquale
Posts: 831
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2015 4:39 pm

Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:14 pm

DocLightning wrote:
This is why 538's predictions have been so far off from the other predictors. I'm afraid that this election is going to hurt his credibility a lot.

I'm not sure this election will hurt him. The t-tailed distribution is not the only thing increasing Trump's chances, but as Silver explained, the high number of undecided voters and the abnormally low level of support each candidate is receiving, 46% for Clinton and 42% for Trump. I would also imagine that part of the reason Silver's projections are more bullish on Trump is because he and others were so off during the primaries.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 22258
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:22 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
Very exciting election, and I'm watching CNN and waiting . . . It really does seem knife-edge! Trump starting off well in Kentucky


If he loses KY, he's done. KY is safe Red.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8633
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:22 pm

[quote="Braybuddy" Trump starting off well in Kentucky[/quote]

Its only 1%...and he's going to win Kentucky anyway
 
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Braybuddy
Posts: 6973
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:14 pm

Re: Prediction Time: POTUS Election

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:28 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
Very exciting election, and I'm watching CNN and waiting . . . It really does seem knife-edge! Trump starting off well in Kentucky


If he loses KY, he's done. KY is safe Red.


His lead is surprising! :shock:

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